Does Sampras win the 1991 Australian Open if healthy?

buscemi

Legend
Sampras famously won the 1990 U.S. Open, beating Lendl in a five set QF along the way. He then closed the year by winning the inaugural Grand Slam Cup, straight setting Chang and Gilbert in the BO5 SF/F.

Sampras then looked to be heading into 1991 with a full head of steam before withdrawing on the eve of the Australian Open with shin splints. Sampras's first tournament back was the U.S. Pro Indoor, where he made it to the final before losing to Lendl in five sets. Sampras later returned the favor at WTF, smoking Lendl, 6-2, 6-3 in the SF before beating Courier in a four set final.

Because Sampras withdrew from the 1991 AO so late, we actually know his draw. He was the #4 seed, in Section 6 of the draw, replaced by qualifier Leonardo Lavalle. Had Sampras played, his draw would have been:

First Round: Lundgren​
Second Round: Layendecker​
Third Round: Caratti​
Fourth Round: Krajicek​
Quarterfinal: Patrick McEnroe​
Semifinal: Becker​
Final: Lendl​

Sampras later withdrew from the 1992 Australian Open with an inflamed shoulder tendon before losing to Edberg in the 1993 SF, taking the title in 1994, and losing the final to Agassi in 1995.

So, how would a healthy Sampras have fared in 1991? I don't see any problems in rounds 1-3 or the QF. Krajicek was a huge nemesis for Sampras, but he was only 19 at the time and wouldn't record his first top 10 win until later in the year.

That leaves Lendl and Becker. As noted, after Sampras's five set win over Lendl in the 1990 U.S. Open QF, they split their matches in 1991, with Lendl winning one in five sets and Sampras straight setting Lendl in the other match. I tend to think Rebound Ace favors Lendl's game more than Sampras's game, especially with Sampras's game still developing in 1991. OTOH, Lendl looked pretty average in the final against Becker, and you could say his days of contending in Major finals were over (this was the last Major final he'd reach and he had to save match points against Edberg to make it there).

As for Sampras/Becker, they played three times in 1991, with Sampras winning in the finals of the RCA Championships in Indianapolis and Becker winning a QF match in Stockholm and a RR match at WTF (with Sampras later taking the title). I tend to think Boris takes out Pete at that stage in their careers, but I wish we could have seen the two play at a Major other than Wimbledon.

Anyway, what do others think? Would a healthy Sampras have taken the title? And, if so, would that have helped or hurt his career in the long run? On the positive side, it might have spurred him to Slam success earlier rather than waiting until 1993 Wimbledon to take his second Major. On the negative side, with a title here, maybe he rests on his laurels a bit too much and doesn't develop his game as much as he did.
 
Agassi more likely, given high court bounce + his future record there + greater consistency in slams at that time; Pete still quite erratic/mentally fragile in 91 - 2R Wimbledon, said he was happy Courier beat him in QF's at USO, +lost both ties in the Davis cup final to Leconte+Forget (but did win YEC). As a side-note, interesting that Lendl-Edberg and Edberg-Courier met at 3 consecutive AOs in that era
 
Very hard to win 2 slams in a row especially when that young. Sampras also said he didnt like the venue and conditions in his first book, but he still managed to figure it out in 94 and again 97. 95 was more about willpower than form.

Becker definitely put it all together in the 91 event, with some of his best outdoor hardcourt play where he didnt just rely on quick points but also rallied very well. Maybe sampras would be too much but then i doubt he had the fitness at that stage for a typically gruelling event. So maybe yes to sampras beating becker, but no to pete winning it all.
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Agassi winning ao before wimbledon doesnt guarantee he wins all 4 slams either. I somehow feel the circumstances for his 92 wimby ended up perfectly in his favour. Would mcenroe or anyone else give him advice if he suddenly was a proven winner? I am not sure. But thats a separate discussion also.
 
If Pete was playing at same level as 90 US, then anything possible. But that would have been unlikely as a 20 year old playing on the other side of the world.

He could have gotten to SF based on that draw, but BB prevails as he was locked in on finally becoming #1 at that time.
 
If Pete was playing at same level as 90 US, then anything possible. But that would have been unlikely as a 20 year old playing on the other side of the world.

He could have gotten to SF based on that draw, but BB prevails as he was locked in on finally becoming #1 at that time.
I do question if sampras being there would mean the draw was the same. Him being seeded would mean an entirely different draw anyway.
 
Sampras was initially in the draw, withdrawing after the draw was made and then being replaced.
Fair enough. Of course even a different match being played could change the outcome of a round, a section of a draw, etc.

I am convinced sampras needed time to adjust to having expectations on him. He still played ok in 1991, but apart from a nice comeback against muster in rg, he just had to build his confidence more outside of the majors.
 
Getting just the 1 french open with less stamina issues would keep him in the conversation with the big 3 more. But of course back then surfaces were so much more different.
Is it true a healthy Pete wins 7-8 USO titles
 
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