Does Thiem have a decent chance of beating Nadal at RG?

Jokervich

Jokervich

Hall of Fame
He's beaten Nadal on clay a few times, never at RG. Took 1 set off him last year. Do you think he has a decent chance of beating Nadal this year?
 
He wont even reach the final... but if he does...

227c4c8437390e101ff1b93c8d772eb1.jpg
 
Jokervich said:
What do you think about his Barcelona match in 2019 against Nadal? He beat Nadal pretty comprehensively there.
Click to expand...

That match was actually a big confidence booster for Nadal. Despite having serious doubts due to the knee injury he was recovering from and the fognini loss he was still fairly competitive with Dominic. It was the start of his quick road back to the top on clay.
 
We all know who the favourite is, but what is the seeding likely to be if joker is still ranked 1? If Thiem and joker maul each other half to death over 5 sets in the semi again, Nadal will be massively favoured against the winner. If Thiem can win easily and quickly on the way to a Nadal match, I think he has a decent shot.
 
Last edited:
If he plays him in the semi, he might have a chance........he will probably crumble under pressure as he usually does if he plays him in the finals
 
It remains to be seen if Thiem's US Open victory has given him the confidence to play the fearless kind of tennis he'll need to finally take Nadal down at the French. He clearly has the game - does he now also have the belief?
 
Pretty much 0 chance if it's in the Final
A small / ok chance if it's the Semis
But probably (along with Novak) the best chance of anyone doing it, as everyone has been saying for the last 9 months.
 
it has to be a semifinal and clay god has to be a little off........if it is a final, then it is next to impossible regardless of both players' form on the day........
 
NatF said:
What's a decent chance?

I think Thiem has the level to mostly keep up with Old'dal in the rallies etc...but winning will require him to win most of the big points and I don't see that happening.
Click to expand...

What's the chances of him producing that sort of level in a Final?
More likely to spray balls all over the shop - so he may or may not even get the opportunity to set up big points
 
Not a decent chance! A pretty good chance, if he were given equal rest by tourney director Forget this time around!
 
A chance? Sure. Nadal plays the type of tennis that Thiem can feed on and go toe to toe with.

A decent chance? Lol no. Noone has a decent chance if Nadal plays well.
 
NatF said:
What's a decent chance?

I think Thiem has the level to mostly keep up with Old'dal in the rallies etc...but winning will require him to win most of the big points and I don't see that happening.
Click to expand...
I don't even know about that because Nadal will likely be physically better than last year due to all the rest/preparation so it could look more like 18 from the baseline. Looked amazing in his first match, we'll see.
 
metsman said:
I don't even know about that because Nadal will likely be physically better than last year due to all the rest/preparation so it could look more like 18 from the baseline. Looked amazing in his first match, we'll see.
Click to expand...

Serve wasn't great but he was strong off the ground.
 
I give Timmy about a 1/5 (20% for you people who can’t handle fractions) chance of winning. They played 4 times at RG so by my calculations he should be due to win this one.

However, I’ve been told that all those matches don’t count. So, after recalibrating my equation Timmy should maybe beat RAFA sometime in the next 5 years :sneaky:

6ww.gif
 
weakera said:
Maybe 1 in 6 or 7 chance if he's playing well. At best.
Click to expand...
It’s higher than that. Nadal is oldEt Thiem better than ever and playing conditions different at this year’s tournament.
I’d give Thiem a 30-40% chance. On a regular Bo3 it’s almost a coin toss. Same thing for Novak’s chances against Rafa.
 
He’s a choker who has a lot of mental scarring from earlier losses to The Nadal, and there is no way The Nadal will give him anything (unlike the three sets Zod gifted him). So signs point in the direction of slim to none.

The most important matchup is Novak and Tim. We all know they’ll meet before the finals. If Novak can beat Tim comfortably, he might have more than a 10% chance in the final against Ralph.
 
Positives for Timmy: He now has a grand slam under his belt, which should free him up immensely. In addition, he has a lot of experience playing the Nadal

Negatives: 1. It's Nadal on clay. 2. He's going to be rusty on clay with low energy whereas Nadal is perfectly healthy and will be warmed up on clay.

If Thiem somehow survives Djoker in the semis, then he'll get stomped by Nadal in the final. Only this time, it'll be in straight sets.

Here's where I'd give Thiem the best chance. Thiem will need to meet Nadal in the semis after a routine QF win. Nadal would need to meet a zoning Zverev who somehow pushed him to a 5th set by serving 140 mph bombs at an 80% clip while charging the net a lot. If this scenario somehow happens, then Thiem has a chance. Somebody needs to wear out Nadal in the QF to give a well-rested Thiem a shot. Only under this extreme scenario would Thiem have a chance, maybe 30%.

Otherwise, Thiem has a 5% chance beating Nadal. So I'm saying that he has a chance.
 
Beating Nadal in a best-of-five clay final is the single hardest task in all sports. Therefore, his best chance is to meet the Spaniard in the semis.
 
Nadal is 118-2 in best of five sets matches on clay.
His losses were against Soderling and Djokovic.
As far as I know they do not have a one handed backhand in their repertoire.
:sneaky:
 
Last edited:
Federev said:
I don’t think so. Rafa gave warning at WB by playing Fed close in 2007.

Thiem’s never had a “2007”.

And Rafa is better at RG than Fed at WB.
Click to expand...

A warning?!
:rolleyes:o_O
He almost won that match.
One of the "worst" defeats of Nadal's career in the sense that he should never have missed that chance to win Wimbledon that was within his grasp.
:(
 
yokied said:
He’s a choker who has a lot of mental scarring from earlier losses to The Nadal, and there is no way The Nadal will give him anything (unlike the three sets Zod gifted him). So signs point in the direction of slim to none.

The most important matchup is Novak and Tim. We all know they’ll meet before the finals. If Novak can beat Tim comfortably, he might have more than a 10% chance in the final against Ralph.
Click to expand...
Thiem needs to be put in Nadal’s half. No 2 should draw No 3 this year.
 
DSH said:
A warning?!
:rolleyes:o_O
He almost won that match.
One of the "worst" defeats of Nadal's career in the sense that he should never have missed that chance to win Wimbledon that was within his grasp.
:(
Click to expand...

Sorry - my stress wasnt in the specifics of that match. You’re right that Nadal was very close.

Point is Thiem’s never come nearly that close.

He’s not shown anything like that competitiveness that had Rafa already showed w Fed the year before he made it across the line
 
  • Like
Reactions: DSH
If Rafa reaches the Semifinals of Roland Garros there's only one thing able to stop him, his own body.

His 24-0 (100%) record on Semifinals & Finals is just divine.

His Victims :


Federer x6
Djokovic x5
Thiem x3
Murray x2
Ferrer x2
Wawrinka x1
Del Potro x1
Ljubicic x1
Soderling x1
Puerta x1
Melzer x1

24-0
 
  • Like
Reactions: DSH
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

skypadq
2020 RG will be thiem 's biggest chance to winning slam
Replies
11
Views
888
netlets
netlets
Jokervich
Why was Federer incapable of beating Nadal at RG, unlike Djokovic?
5 6 7
Replies
323
Views
21K
Ray Mercer
R
skypadq
Didn't the thiem do something impossible at 19 RG?
Replies
1
Views
415
Nadal_Django
Nadal_Django
skypadq
in 2020 RG , there 's any chance that rafael nadal dosen 't win ?
Replies
47
Views
3K
Berrettini_Fan
Berrettini_Fan
skypadq
serious RG prediction :: if nadal and djokovic meet RG SF , dominic thiem win can RG
2
Replies
64
Views
4K
blablavla
B
Back
Top