Does Thiem have a decent chance of beating Nadal at RG?

Jokervich

Professional
He's beaten Nadal on clay a few times, never at RG. Took 1 set off him last year. Do you think he has a decent chance of beating Nadal this year?
 

weakera

Legend
What do you think about his Barcelona match in 2019 against Nadal? He beat Nadal pretty comprehensively there.
That match was actually a big confidence booster for Nadal. Despite having serious doubts due to the knee injury he was recovering from and the fognini loss he was still fairly competitive with Dominic. It was the start of his quick road back to the top on clay.
 

burma_shave

New User
We all know who the favourite is, but what is the seeding likely to be if joker is still ranked 1? If Thiem and joker maul each other half to death over 5 sets in the semi again, Nadal will be massively favoured against the winner. If Thiem can win easily and quickly on the way to a Nadal match, I think he has a decent shot.
 
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Omega_7000

Legend
If he plays him in the semi, he might have a chance........he will probably crumble under pressure as he usually does if he plays him in the finals
 

Musterrific

Semi-Pro
It remains to be seen if Thiem's US Open victory has given him the confidence to play the fearless kind of tennis he'll need to finally take Nadal down at the French. He clearly has the game - does he now also have the belief?
 

Krish872007

G.O.A.T.
Pretty much 0 chance if it's in the Final
A small / ok chance if it's the Semis
But probably (along with Novak) the best chance of anyone doing it, as everyone has been saying for the last 9 months.
 

Start da Game

Hall of Fame
it has to be a semifinal and clay god has to be a little off........if it is a final, then it is next to impossible regardless of both players' form on the day........
 

Krish872007

G.O.A.T.
What's a decent chance?

I think Thiem has the level to mostly keep up with Old'dal in the rallies etc...but winning will require him to win most of the big points and I don't see that happening.
What's the chances of him producing that sort of level in a Final?
More likely to spray balls all over the shop - so he may or may not even get the opportunity to set up big points
 

SonnyT

Hall of Fame
Not a decent chance! A pretty good chance, if he were given equal rest by tourney director Forget this time around!
 

Terenigma

G.O.A.T.
A chance? Sure. Nadal plays the type of tennis that Thiem can feed on and go toe to toe with.

A decent chance? Lol no. Noone has a decent chance if Nadal plays well.
 

metsman

G.O.A.T.
What's a decent chance?

I think Thiem has the level to mostly keep up with Old'dal in the rallies etc...but winning will require him to win most of the big points and I don't see that happening.
I don't even know about that because Nadal will likely be physically better than last year due to all the rest/preparation so it could look more like 18 from the baseline. Looked amazing in his first match, we'll see.
 

NatF

Bionic Poster
I don't even know about that because Nadal will likely be physically better than last year due to all the rest/preparation so it could look more like 18 from the baseline. Looked amazing in his first match, we'll see.
Serve wasn't great but he was strong off the ground.
 

The Blond Blur

Hall of Fame
I give Timmy about a 1/5 (20% for you people who can’t handle fractions) chance of winning. They played 4 times at RG so by my calculations he should be due to win this one.

However, I’ve been told that all those matches don’t count. So, after recalibrating my equation Timmy should maybe beat RAFA sometime in the next 5 years :sneaky:

 
Maybe 1 in 6 or 7 chance if he's playing well. At best.
It’s higher than that. Nadal is oldEt Thiem better than ever and playing conditions different at this year’s tournament.
I’d give Thiem a 30-40% chance. On a regular Bo3 it’s almost a coin toss. Same thing for Novak’s chances against Rafa.
 

yokied

Hall of Fame
He’s a choker who has a lot of mental scarring from earlier losses to The Nadal, and there is no way The Nadal will give him anything (unlike the three sets Zod gifted him). So signs point in the direction of slim to none.

The most important matchup is Novak and Tim. We all know they’ll meet before the finals. If Novak can beat Tim comfortably, he might have more than a 10% chance in the final against Ralph.
 

Pheasant

Hall of Fame
Positives for Timmy: He now has a grand slam under his belt, which should free him up immensely. In addition, he has a lot of experience playing the Nadal

Negatives: 1. It's Nadal on clay. 2. He's going to be rusty on clay with low energy whereas Nadal is perfectly healthy and will be warmed up on clay.

If Thiem somehow survives Djoker in the semis, then he'll get stomped by Nadal in the final. Only this time, it'll be in straight sets.

Here's where I'd give Thiem the best chance. Thiem will need to meet Nadal in the semis after a routine QF win. Nadal would need to meet a zoning Zverev who somehow pushed him to a 5th set by serving 140 mph bombs at an 80% clip while charging the net a lot. If this scenario somehow happens, then Thiem has a chance. Somebody needs to wear out Nadal in the QF to give a well-rested Thiem a shot. Only under this extreme scenario would Thiem have a chance, maybe 30%.

Otherwise, Thiem has a 5% chance beating Nadal. So I'm saying that he has a chance.
 

Otacon

Hall of Fame
Beating Nadal in a best-of-five clay final is the single hardest task in all sports. Therefore, his best chance is to meet the Spaniard in the semis.
 

DSH

Legend
Nadal is 118-2 in best of five sets matches on clay.
His losses were against Soderling and Djokovic.
As far as I know they do not have a one handed backhand in their repertoire.
:sneaky:
 
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DSH

Legend
I don’t think so. Rafa gave warning at WB by playing Fed close in 2007.

Thiem’s never had a “2007”.

And Rafa is better at RG than Fed at WB.
A warning?!
:rolleyes:o_O
He almost won that match.
One of the "worst" defeats of Nadal's career in the sense that he should never have missed that chance to win Wimbledon that was within his grasp.
:(
 
He’s a choker who has a lot of mental scarring from earlier losses to The Nadal, and there is no way The Nadal will give him anything (unlike the three sets Zod gifted him). So signs point in the direction of slim to none.

The most important matchup is Novak and Tim. We all know they’ll meet before the finals. If Novak can beat Tim comfortably, he might have more than a 10% chance in the final against Ralph.
Thiem needs to be put in Nadal’s half. No 2 should draw No 3 this year.
 

Federev

Hall of Fame
A warning?!
:rolleyes:o_O
He almost won that match.
One of the "worst" defeats of Nadal's career in the sense that he should never have missed that chance to win Wimbledon that was within his grasp.
:(
Sorry - my stress wasnt in the specifics of that match. You’re right that Nadal was very close.

Point is Thiem’s never come nearly that close.

He’s not shown anything like that competitiveness that had Rafa already showed w Fed the year before he made it across the line
 
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Leandro2045

Rookie
If Rafa reaches the Semifinals of Roland Garros there's only one thing able to stop him, his own body.

His 24-0 (100%) record on Semifinals & Finals is just divine.

His Victims :


Federer x6
Djokovic x5
Thiem x3
Murray x2
Ferrer x2
Wawrinka x1
Del Potro x1
Ljubicic x1
Soderling x1
Puerta x1
Melzer x1

24-0
 
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