Don't be surprised if Cilic takes the WTF

Sysyphus

Sysyphus

Talk Tennis Guru
This will probably look dumb when he inevitably bums out in the group stage, but who cares.

I've been thinking for a while that with the level Cilic has been showing at times this year, it's just a matter of time before he makes a big splash again, maybe at the slam level soon. Of course, he did win Cincy this year, but it hasn't really panned out in the slams this year for him. Obviously he came close at Wimbledon and would've liked his chances at a final if he'd converted one of the key points against Roger.

As we all know, Murray and Novak are the obvious favorites, but contrary to popular belief which I think would pick Stan and Nishikori (and maybe Milos?) as the top challengers, it might be Cilic who can take a surprise win in London. Let's look at some of the stats. Firstly, he's just playing good tennis overall, posting a dominance ratio of 1.18 over the last 52 weeks (and the same when looking at hardcourt only). This puts him fourth in the WTF field behind obviously Novak and Murray, and also Milos.

But given that the WTF is a big-boy format with only the 8 best players, an interesting stat to look speficially at is their performance against fellow top 10 over the last year. Cilic has the second best win % here with 67% of matches won (6-3, small sample size, granted), only behind Novak. His dominance ratio is an impressive 1.12, meaning he's been bringing it against the best players this year. He's also one of the few who has beaten both Murray and Novak this year, and his recent Paris win vs Noel should have gotten that monkey off his back finally.
Outside of Novak (league of his own) and Murray (63%/1.06), the other players' top 10 win % and DR are: Nishikori 29%/0.93, Wawrinka 44%/0.87, Raonic 50%/0.97, Monfils 25%/0.87, Thiem 33%/0.86.

So given that Novak is seemingly not at his best, Murray might well be a bit drained, Milos and Monfils have questionable fitness ATM, Stan has beaten top 10 players at one tournament this year, Kei as we know is 2-5000 against top players — could an in-form Cilic be going all the way at the christmas exo prestigious Tour Finals this year?

Diss Guss.
 
Sysyphus said:
I think he looks motivated for some vacation. Perhaps a nice meditation retreat, some weeks of dedicated love and kindness mantras in the jungle of Burma might rekindle his fire;)
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Yes he'll take a well earned vacation. Before he does that however he needs to take care of some business and whoop some a** ;);)
 
cockneyDjoker said:
Yes he'll take a well earned vacation. Before he does that however he needs to take care of some business and whoop some a** ;);)
Click to expand...

It's so hilarious how much of a fanboy you are. You remind me of these little kids at sporting events who cry when their favorite team/player loses.

And for what it's worth, I watched that match with Djokovic and Thiem, and honestly even in those last two sets where Djokovic really seized control, he didn't look all that impressive. All he did was just bring the margins in and play with more spin and height over the net, adding some safety to his shots. He also dropped a lot balls short in the rallies and he got away with it because Thiem just isn't quite there yet, to really challenge and compete with the top guys, at least not on hardcourts. He might have also been a little overwhelmed by the moment playing in his first ever world tour finals.

I sense, unless some dramatic happens, that Djokovic isn't going to win these world tour finals, and what's more, I'm not feeling like he's going to have nearly as successful of a 2017 as you think, and I could see him winning only one grand slam in 2017, possibly even none.
 
Sysyphus said:
This will probably look dumb when he inevitably bums out in the group stage, but who cares.

I've been thinking for a while that with the level Cilic has been showing at times this year, it's just a matter of time before he makes a big splash again, maybe at the slam level soon. Of course, he did win Cincy this year, but it hasn't really panned out in the slams this year for him. Obviously he came close at Wimbledon and would've liked his chances at a final if he'd converted one of the key points against Roger.

As we all know, Murray and Novak are the obvious favorites, but contrary to popular belief which I think would pick Stan and Nishikori (and maybe Milos?) as the top challengers, it might be Cilic who can take a surprise win in London. Let's look at some of the stats. Firstly, he's just playing good tennis overall, posting a dominance ratio of 1.18 over the last 52 weeks (and the same when looking at hardcourt only). This puts him fourth in the WTF field behind obviously Novak and Murray, and also Milos.

But given that the WTF is a big-boy format with only the 8 best players, an interesting stat to look speficially at is their performance against fellow top 10 over the last year. Cilic has the second best win % here with 67% of matches won (6-3, small sample size, granted), only behind Novak. His dominance ratio is an impressive 1.12, meaning he's been bringing it against the best players this year. He's also one of the few who has beaten both Murray and Novak this year, and his recent Paris win vs Noel should have gotten that monkey off his back finally.
Outside of Novak (league of his own) and Murray (63%/1.06), the other players' top 10 win % and DR are: Nishikori 29%/0.93, Wawrinka 44%/0.87, Raonic 50%/0.97, Monfils 25%/0.87, Thiem 33%/0.86.

So given that Novak is seemingly not at his best, Murray might well be a bit drained, Milos and Monfils have questionable fitness ATM, Stan has beaten top 10 players at one tournament this year, Kei as we know is 2-5000 against top players— could an in-form Cilic be going all the way at the christmas exo prestigious Tour Finals this year?

Diss Guss.
Click to expand...
That bad Sysy?! :eek::eek:
 
Sysyphus said:
This will probably look dumb when he inevitably bums out in the group stage, but who cares.

I've been thinking for a while that with the level Cilic has been showing at times this year, it's just a matter of time before he makes a big splash again, maybe at the slam level soon. Of course, he did win Cincy this year, but it hasn't really panned out in the slams this year for him. Obviously he came close at Wimbledon and would've liked his chances at a final if he'd converted one of the key points against Roger.

As we all know, Murray and Novak are the obvious favorites, but contrary to popular belief which I think would pick Stan and Nishikori (and maybe Milos?) as the top challengers, it might be Cilic who can take a surprise win in London. Let's look at some of the stats. Firstly, he's just playing good tennis overall, posting a dominance ratio of 1.18 over the last 52 weeks (and the same when looking at hardcourt only). This puts him fourth in the WTF field behind obviously Novak and Murray, and also Milos.

But given that the WTF is a big-boy format with only the 8 best players, an interesting stat to look speficially at is their performance against fellow top 10 over the last year. Cilic has the second best win % here with 67% of matches won (6-3, small sample size, granted), only behind Novak. His dominance ratio is an impressive 1.12, meaning he's been bringing it against the best players this year. He's also one of the few who has beaten both Murray and Novak this year, and his recent Paris win vs Noel should have gotten that monkey off his back finally.
Outside of Novak (league of his own) and Murray (63%/1.06), the other players' top 10 win % and DR are: Nishikori 29%/0.93, Wawrinka 44%/0.87, Raonic 50%/0.97, Monfils 25%/0.87, Thiem 33%/0.86.

So given that Novak is seemingly not at his best, Murray might well be a bit drained, Milos and Monfils have questionable fitness ATM, Stan has beaten top 10 players at one tournament this year, Kei as we know is 2-5000 against top players — could an in-form Cilic be going all the way at the christmas exo prestigious Tour Finals this year?

Diss Guss.
Click to expand...

Interesting idea. I think the faster court speed could definitely be an advantage for him for sure (Is it just me or is WTF playing quite a bit quicker than last year?)
 
Like anybody's going to stop Djokovic. Even IF he is declining or whatever, he is still way better than anyone else on tour, and will likely dominate 2017 as well. He's not going away any time soon.
 
Cilic has an interestingly high peak level when he's in the mood so, that being the case, he will always be a very dangerous opponent. He's just come off a win in Basel and a semi in Paris so indoor hardcourts seem to suit his game. He could cause quite a bit of damage at the O2 this week and might well go all the way if his level and confidence remain high. Obviously the top 2 seeds remain the favourites but a motivated Cilic is definitely in with a chance too.

So I don't think I will be TOO surprised either!
 
Sysyphus said:
This will probably look dumb when he inevitably bums out in the group stage, but who cares.

I've been thinking for a while that with the level Cilic has been showing at times this year, it's just a matter of time before he makes a big splash again, maybe at the slam level soon. Of course, he did win Cincy this year, but it hasn't really panned out in the slams this year for him. Obviously he came close at Wimbledon and would've liked his chances at a final if he'd converted one of the key points against Roger.

As we all know, Murray and Novak are the obvious favorites, but contrary to popular belief which I think would pick Stan and Nishikori (and maybe Milos?) as the top challengers, it might be Cilic who can take a surprise win in London. Let's look at some of the stats. Firstly, he's just playing good tennis overall, posting a dominance ratio of 1.18 over the last 52 weeks (and the same when looking at hardcourt only). This puts him fourth in the WTF field behind obviously Novak and Murray, and also Milos.

But given that the WTF is a big-boy format with only the 8 best players, an interesting stat to look speficially at is their performance against fellow top 10 over the last year. Cilic has the second best win % here with 67% of matches won (6-3, small sample size, granted), only behind Novak. His dominance ratio is an impressive 1.12, meaning he's been bringing it against the best players this year. He's also one of the few who has beaten both Murray and Novak this year, and his recent Paris win vs Noel should have gotten that monkey off his back finally.
Outside of Novak (league of his own) and Murray (63%/1.06), the other players' top 10 win % and DR are: Nishikori 29%/0.93, Wawrinka 44%/0.87, Raonic 50%/0.97, Monfils 25%/0.87, Thiem 33%/0.86.

So given that Novak is seemingly not at his best, Murray might well be a bit drained, Milos and Monfils have questionable fitness ATM, Stan has beaten top 10 players at one tournament this year, Kei as we know is 2-5000 against top players — could an in-form Cilic be going all the way at the christmas exo prestigious Tour Finals this year?

Diss Guss.
Click to expand...
Reminds me of the days when Corretja won the WTF.
 
If it's one person I wish would take this (apart from Djokovic), it would be Cilic. The best player from the "tall men" of tennis. Rankings can be so misleading. Look at the way Cilic plays, and look at Raonic. Raonic looks like Bigfoot in that famous reel of film, in the forest. Cilic looks like he can actually play ball, and is not just a great serve.

he does have a chance, I believe. I think he is the only player Murray should actually fear from his group.
 
If Cilic beats Murray tonight then this prediction won't see so strange, I'll be watching Cilic with interest anyway as we know he can get hot.
 
joekapa said:
If it's one person I wish would take this (apart from Djokovic), it would be Cilic. The best player from the "tall men" of tennis. Rankings can be so misleading. Look at the way Cilic plays, and look at Raonic. Raonic looks like Bigfoot in that famous reel of film, in the forest. Cilic looks like he can actually play ball, and is not just a great serve.
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:):D:p

joekapa said:
he does have a chance, I believe. I think he is the only player Murray should actually fear from his group.
Click to expand...

Murray has lost recent matches to 2 of the players in his group: Cilic at Cincinnati, Nishikori at the US Open. The 3rd, Wawrinka beat him at the O2 this time last year. So he is going to have to be at his very best this week as, unlike Djokovic, he faces formidable challenges from all 3 of them to qualify from the group stage!
 
Sysyphus said:
Diss Guss.
Click to expand...

Guss sucks...

...

Okay, don't think this is that far-fetched, especially based on recent form. Forget Thiem and Nishikori. And The Guru who is here to teach. Wawrinka is hit or miss who looks like he's gonna miss. Raonic looked great last night (thanks to the Guru) but is still a question mark going forward. Cilic certainly looked good last month and his game can certainly look good in the O2 conditions. So outside of Noel the Monk and Mury GOAT, an uninjured Raonic and Cilic are decent picks for the title.
 
Mainad said:
:):D:p



Murray has lost recent matches to 2 of the players in his group: Cilic at Cincinnati, Nishikori at the US Open. The 3rd, Wawrinka beat him at the O2 this time last year. So he is going to have to be at his very best this week as, unlike Djokovic, he faces formidable challenges from all 3 of them to qualify from the group stage!
Click to expand...
Well, to be the man, you have to beat the man - Ric Flair.

You can't keep playing 500's to stay at #1 my man. You have to beat great players to stay there. Don't complain.
 
joekapa said:
Well, to be the man, you have to beat the man - Ric Flair.

You can't keep playing 500's to stay at #1 my man. You have to beat great players to stay there. Don't complain.
Click to expand...

Who's complaining? Did you detect me complaining at all? I just pointed out some basic facts. Murray has by far the tougher group. He has a lot of work to do to get through it. Any problems with that?

By the way, Murray didn't just play 500s to get to number #1, did he? You seem to be forgetting he won a Slam and 3 Masters tournaments. I think they counted for a lot more, wouldn't you agree, my man?
 
joekapa said:
Well, to be the man, you have to beat the man - Ric Flair.

You can't keep playing 500's to stay at #1 my man. You have to beat great players to stay there. Don't complain.
Click to expand...

Since RG - Murray reached 8 finals from 9 tournaments he entered including 5 of the big 6 in that period - Djokovic was in neither of them
 
Mainad said:
Cilic has an interestingly high peak level when he's in the mood so, that being the case, he will always be a very dangerous opponent. He's just come off a win in Basel and a semi in Paris so indoor hardcourts seem to suit his game. He could cause quite a bit of damage at the O2 this week and might well go all the way if his level and confidence remain high. Obviously the top 2 seeds remain the favourites but a motivated Cilic is definitely in with a chance too.

So I don't think I will be TOO surprised either!
Click to expand...
I pretty much agree with you - Cilic looks like a possible candidate to play the Party Pooper-role this time, more than for instance Wawrinka. Just wait and see... :)
 
no.gif
 
If Cilic wins the WTF, I'll be like WTF?!? and just watch doubles and WTA from then on. I cannot stand him:mad:
 
QuentinFederer said:
Cilic is great to watch! Tennis needs more attacking players like him.
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I hear what your're saying, but besides having the ugliest game to watch, he has zero personality. People call Djokovic a robot, but Cilic takes it to a whole new level of boredom.
 
Minion said:
I hear what your're saying, but besides having the ugliest game to watch, he has zero personality. People call Djokovic a robot, but Cilic takes it to a whole new level of boredom.
Click to expand...
Cilic does not have a ugly game. He hits big off both forehand and backhand. He seems like a nice guy too, certainly not boring with zero personality.
Raonic is the unwatchable one. He is a robot on and off the court.
 
Not surprised....

Nole is the only player in the draw who is a lock to win WTF when in form, and with his questionable form this year anybody else could win it really. Stan and raonic have have chances too.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if he wins it. Nor would I be surprised if he went out of the group with 3 losses. Don't know what you're gonna get from him. It is a tough group though. Really is night and day. Every single match up looks interesting the other group Thiem Monfils is the only interesting match up really.
 
nadalfan2013 said:
Why would anyone be surprised if Cilic wins it? Rafa is out with injury just like at the USO 2014, so Cilic has already proven that he can take advantage of that.
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best comment by far!

@Sysyphus
you present your case well and I very much agree. I had him and Stan as the danger guys pre-tournament, but by the looks of it, Stan ain't it this time around. Raonic could be dangerous too just by the Sunday match and if he stays healthy.
 
Chanwan said:
best comment by far!

@Sysyphus
you present your case well and I very much agree. I had him and Stan as the danger guys pre-tournament, but by the looks of it, Stan ain't it this time around. Raonic could be dangerous too just by the Sunday match and if he stays healthy.
Click to expand...

Tonight's match should be telling, both regarding whether Cilic is up for it and whether Murray is starting to feel the grind of the last months. Still see Murray taking it, but I like Cilic's chances to get past Wawa and Nishi.

Raonic has the level if he's fit, but I remain skeptical as he seems to not do his best on the biggest occasions. But who knows, maybe this will be the place.

Who are you favoring for the title ATM between Noel and Andy?
 
nadalfan2013 said:
Why would anyone be surprised if Cilic wins it? Rafa is out with injury just like at the USO 2014, so Cilic has already proven that he can take advantage of that.
Click to expand...
Otherwise, the history shows that Rafa is a real threat at the WTF...
Who are you?
 
Sysyphus said:
Tonight's match should be telling, both regarding whether Cilic is up for it and whether Murray is starting to feel the grind of the last months. Still see Murray taking it, but I like Cilic's chances to get past Wawa and Nishi.

Raonic has the level if he's fit, but I remain skeptical as he seems to not do his best on the biggest occasions. But who knows, maybe this will be the place.

Who are you favoring for the title ATM between Noel and Andy?
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Andy can't feel completely certain to get to the semis so for that reason alone, I have Nole (slightly) ahead of him. But tbh, this is a pretty open WTF to me.
  • Andy can't be a massive favorite there given his lack of history - though it should aid him some if the surface indeed is a tad faster.
  • Djoko is a massive favorite based on history, but has hardly played a single great tennis match since the FO-final. So the rest of the field has a chance.
  • Cilic and Raonic could both do damage, but you're right about Raonic faltering in the biggest moments.
  • I expected Stan to do some damage too, but am skeptical after today. I guess Nishi is the 5th favorite now for me, but I have a hard time seeing him actually winning it.
  • Thiem is irrelevant and Monfils might be too.
 
Last edited:
Sysyphus said:
This will probably look dumb when he inevitably bums out in the group stage, but who cares.

I've been thinking for a while that with the level Cilic has been showing at times this year, it's just a matter of time before he makes a big splash again, maybe at the slam level soon. Of course, he did win Cincy this year, but it hasn't really panned out in the slams this year for him. Obviously he came close at Wimbledon and would've liked his chances at a final if he'd converted one of the key points against Roger.

As we all know, Murray and Novak are the obvious favorites, but contrary to popular belief which I think would pick Stan and Nishikori (and maybe Milos?) as the top challengers, it might be Cilic who can take a surprise win in London. Let's look at some of the stats. Firstly, he's just playing good tennis overall, posting a dominance ratio of 1.18 over the last 52 weeks (and the same when looking at hardcourt only). This puts him fourth in the WTF field behind obviously Novak and Murray, and also Milos.

But given that the WTF is a big-boy format with only the 8 best players, an interesting stat to look speficially at is their performance against fellow top 10 over the last year. Cilic has the second best win % here with 67% of matches won (6-3, small sample size, granted), only behind Novak. His dominance ratio is an impressive 1.12, meaning he's been bringing it against the best players this year. He's also one of the few who has beaten both Murray and Novak this year, and his recent Paris win vs Noel should have gotten that monkey off his back finally.
Outside of Novak (league of his own) and Murray (63%/1.06), the other players' top 10 win % and DR are: Nishikori 29%/0.93, Wawrinka 44%/0.87, Raonic 50%/0.97, Monfils 25%/0.87, Thiem 33%/0.86.

So given that Novak is seemingly not at his best, Murray might well be a bit drained, Milos and Monfils have questionable fitness ATM, Stan has beaten top 10 players at one tournament this year, Kei as we know is 2-5000 against top players — could an in-form Cilic be going all the way at the christmas exo prestigious Tour Finals this year?

Diss Guss.
Click to expand...

yoyoyocat.gif
 
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