Don't think USO 2011 is Djokovic's peak there

[abmk]

It's mental, but I think it's caused by the physical gap. It adds an extra layer of pressure when you know the longer the rally goes the less it favours you. He doesn't tighten up against lesser players to nearly the same degree because most don't have the ballstriking and athleticism to win those points against him - not the case with Djokodal.

when Nadal's athleticism and hence physical gap went down in 17 compared to AO 14 and before, we saw what Fed was able to do. of course not having played Nadal much for 3 years helped (only one match b/w AO 14 and AO 17)

 

[NoleFam]

It's mental, but I think it's caused by the physical gap. It adds an extra layer of pressure when you know the longer the rally goes the less it favours you. He doesn't tighten up against lesser players to nearly the same degree because most don't have the ballstriking and athleticism to win those points against him - not the case with Djokodal.

It's not just Djokodal though. I would say you're on to something that he doesn't tighten up nearly as much to lesser players but he does to players that he knows aren't going quietly into the night, like Nalbandian at 2005 ATP finals. He was 6/20 on bps there, which is not even his worst conversion rate, while Nalbandian was 11/15. He was also 5/22 against Del Potro in the 2009 USO.

 

[NatF]

when Nadal's athleticism and hence physical gap went down in 17 compared to AO 14 and before, we saw what Fed was able to do. of course not having played Nadal much for 3 years helped (only one match b/w AO 14 and AO 17)

Yeah I think the mindset and the way he went after the ball in the fifth in that match will always make it special. Regardless of what's happened since.

It's not just Djokodal though. I would say you're on to something that he doesn't tighten up nearly as much to lesser players but he does to players that he knows aren't going quietly into the night, like Nalbandian at 2005 ATP finals. He was 6/20 on bps there, which is not even his worst conversion rate, while Nalbandian was 11/15.

That wasn't the cleanest match from Fed tbf lol but for sure Nalbandian often gave Fed trouble. Would be interesting to see a breakdown of his BP conversion rates.

 

[NoleFam]

Yeah I think the mindset and the way he went after the ball in the fifth in that match will always make it special. Regardless of what's happened since.



That wasn't the cleanest match from Fed tbf lol but for sure Nalbandian often gave Fed trouble. Would be interesting to see a breakdown of his BP conversion rates.

Well another one is the 2009 USO final which I added in my edited post. Bp conversion has been a key part in some of his losses in big matches over the years.

 

[NatF]

Well another one is the 2009 USO final which I added in my edited post. Bp conversion has been a key part in some of his losses in big matches over the years.

Fair enough, those are some ugly numbers lol.

 

[abmk]

Yeah I think the mindset and the way he went after the ball in the fifth in that match will always make it special. Regardless of what's happened since.

true. There's also what happened in rest of 2017.

That wasn't the cleanest match from Fed tbf lol but for sure Nalbandian often gave Fed trouble. Would be interesting to see a breakdown of his BP conversion rates.

fed's conversion rate on BPs vs Nalby is like 47.6%, well above average.
Click on h2hs: https://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/player-classic.cgi?p=RogerFederer

AO 04 where Nalby played very well: fed was 5/12 on BPs
USO 03: which fed lost in 4 sets: fed was 4/9 on BPs
AO 03: which fed lost in 5 sets: fed was 7/17 on BPs

USO 05: where fed demolished Nalby: fed was 7/11 on BPs

RG 06 semi: fed turned the tables in the 2nd set breaking back twice in 3 BPs chances.

So the Nalby YEC 05 point is really nothing honestly considering fed was hampered after end of set 2. yeah, it reads 3/10 on BPs in 1st 2 sets, but it was 3/5 on break games. 2/2 in the 1st set and 1/3 in the 2nd set.

Where nalby troubled fed was on converting his own BPs. highest among those whom fed has played > 15 times - with fed only saving 54.7% of BPs vs him. to get a better idea, fed's saved ~59% of BPs vs Nadal and 61% vs Djokovic.

 

[Kralingen]

Wasn’t Fed only like 4/7 on break games in the 2015 USO final despite the gaudy 4/23? He certainly missed a lot of chances but I remember like 10 of those BPs coming in a couple games he ended up winning.

It isn’t like Fed didn’t choke (he certainly did) but also Djokovic played probably 15 of those well. Never thought it was emblematic of too much. End of the day I think the better player won that match.

 

[tudwell]

Well another one is the 2009 USO final which I added in my edited post. Bp conversion has been a key part in some of his losses in big matches over the years.

It's interesting, 'cause I don't really think of that as a famous @Breakpointerer match, and I think it's because, looking at the stats now, 8 of the 17 break points he missed came in the first set – which he won and where he was handily the better player (didn't even face a break point on his own serve). So those missed break points don't really feel very significant, I guess. After that Delpo saved 9 of 13, or 69%, which is only a tad above the 67% of service points he won in total for the match. Hardly clutch from Federer, but not epic choking (well, not on the break points at least...).

 

[NatF]

Wasn’t Fed only like 4/7 on break games in the 2015 USO final despite the gaudy 4/23? He certainly missed a lot of chances but I remember like 10 of those BPs coming in a couple games he ended up winning.

It isn’t like Fed didn’t choke (he certainly did) but also Djokovic played probably 15 of those well

It's about mental energy and managing intensity. If Fed converts easier he saves that energy for other games and for the later sets. If he closes down the second set quicker perhaps he rides the momentum throughout the third as well.

 

[Adam Copeland]

Novak USO 2011 > Novak USO 2015 > Other years of Novak

No rocket science, this is quite obvious.

 

[NoleFam]

It's interesting, 'cause I don't really think of that as a famous @Breakpointerer match, and I think it's because, looking at the stats now, 8 of the 17 break points he missed came in the first set – which he won and where he was handily the better player (didn't even face a break point on his own serve). So those missed break points don't really feel very significant, I guess. After that Delpo saved 9 of 13, or 69%, which is only a tad above the 67% of service points he won in total for the match. Hardly clutch from Federer, but not epic choking (well, not on the break points at least...).

Not his most epic choking on bps but they ended up doing him in all the same. The tone was set in the very 1st game where he needed 5 bps to break. Then in the 2nd set, he had bps at 3-1 to go up a double break which he failed to do. Had he converted, he surely goes up 2 sets to love. He does not and Del Potro comes back in that set to win it. In the 4th, he had bps early to go up 2-0. Del Potro again holds. He has a bp again in the 4th game of the set where he again does not convert. These were costly as he ended up losing this set in a tiebreak. In the 5th he goes down 3-0 but has his final bp in the 5th game to get back on serve but he again does not convert. So pretty much, key bps were a bit part of his loss there.

 

[abmk]

It's interesting, 'cause I don't really think of that as a famous @Breakpointerer match, and I think it's because, looking at the stats now, 8 of the 17 break points he missed came in the first set – which he won and where he was handily the better player (didn't even face a break point on his own serve). So those missed break points don't really feel very significant, I guess. After that Delpo saved 9 of 13, or 69%, which is only a tad above the 67% of service points he won in total for the match. Hardly clutch from Federer, but not epic choking (well, not on the break points at least...).

yep.
Fed broke once each in the first 4 sets.

 

[abmk]

Not his most epic choking on bps but they ended up doing him in all the same. The tone was set in the very 1st game where he needed 5 bps to break. Then in the 2nd set, he had bps at 3-1 to go up a double break which he failed to do. Had he converted, he surely goes up 2 sets to love. He does not and Del Potro comes back in that set to win it. In the 4th, he had bps early to go up 2-0. Del Potro again holds. He has a bp again in the 4th game of the set where he again does not convert. These were costly as he ended up losing this set in a tiebreak. In the 5th he goes down 3-0 but has his final bp in the 5th game to get back on serve but he again does not convert. So pretty much, key bps were a bit part of his loss there.

Delpo hit a winner or forced an error on the 1st 4 BPs in the 2nd game of the 1st set. then fed hit an epic running fh pass to break on the 5th BP.

2nd set at 3-1. delpo hit a winner on 1st BP. 2nd one was a UE as per TA in a 9-shot rally, ok.

4th set at 0-1 delpo serving, delpo hit winners to save both BPs

maybe give some credit to delpo, eh?

5th set, ok, fed missed BP with UE (as per TA), but he wasn't playing well in that set anyways.

fed's problems in the match were not serving well, being atleast a tad over-confident including hitting too much to delpo's FH and some sloppiness. Not play on BPs.

 

[mike danny]

It's not just Djokodal though. I would say you're on to something that he doesn't tighten up nearly as much to lesser players but he does to players that he knows aren't going quietly into the night, like Nalbandian at 2005 ATP finals. He was 6/20 on bps there, which is not even his worst conversion rate, while Nalbandian was 11/15. He was also 5/22 against Del Potro in the 2009 USO.

Combined with a deplorable serving day in the 2009 USO final resulted in arguably Fed's worst loss in a slam final.

 

[abmk]

Wasn’t Fed only like 4/7 on break games in the 2015 USO final despite the gaudy 4/23? He certainly missed a lot of chances but I remember like 10 of those BPs coming in a couple games he ended up winning.

It isn’t like Fed didn’t choke (he certainly did) but also Djokovic played probably 15 of those well. Never thought it was emblematic of too much. End of the day I think the better player won that match.

nope.
in USO 15 final, fed was:

1/2 on break games in set 1
1/3 on break games in set 2
1/3 on break games in set 3
1/3 on break games in set 4

so 4/11 on break games.

Contrast to 2011 USO semi.
Fed had had only 3 break games and converted all of them.
Was 3/5 on BPs.

Goes to show how much better Djoko was serving in the 2011 USO semi (+backing it up better) that fed had only 3 break games.

Also in 2015 USO final:

djoko was:

2/3 on break games in set1
0/0 on break games in set2
2/2 on break games in set3
2/2 on break games in set4

so 6/7 on break games.

4/11 for fed contrasting with 6/7 for Djoko.
fed had 4 more break games, but converted 2 less.

to me, djoko was the better player in set1 and set4, fed in set 2 and in set 3 (closest set). so it should've gone to a 5th, honestly.

 

[serbiavic]

nope.
in USO 15 final, fed was:

1/2 on break games in set 1
1/3 on break games in set 2
1/3 on break games in set 3
1/3 on break games in set 4

so 4/11 on break games.

Contrast to 2011 USO semi.
Fed had had only 3 break games and converted all of them.
Was 3/5 on BPs.

Goes to show how much better Djoko was serving in the 2011 USO semi (+backing it up better) that fed had only 3 break games.

Also in 2015 USO final:

djoko was:

2/3 on break games in set1
0/0 on break games in set2
2/2 on break games in set3
2/2 on break games in set4

so 6/7 on break games.

4/11 for fed contrasting with 6/7 for Djoko.
fed had 4 more break games, but converted 2 less.

to me, djoko was the better player in set1 and set4, fed in set 2 and in set 3 (closest set). so it should've gone to a 5th, honestly.

USO 2018 wasn't bad at all, even though he had an easy draw. I think his top level there was high there.