Draw is going to be hugely important than ever at this Rg.

zagor

Bionic Poster
Yeah uh that’s not how odds work though. 3 times in a row doesn’t mean it’s not 50/50 still. If Tim had ever actually been close to beating Nadal in any round on the mud at RG maybe I’d buy into some conspiracy.
They do actually. The odds of Thiem being drawn opposite of Nadal 3 times in a row at the FO is ~12%.

Not conspiracy theory territory but not very likely either.

Same way you're not likely to get the same side of the coin 3 times in a row when you flip it.
 

Federer and Del Potro

Talk Tennis Guru
They do actually. The odds of Thiem being drawn opposite of Nadal 3 times in a row at the FO is ~12%.

Not conspiracy theory territory but not very likely either.

Same way you;re not likely to get the same side of the coin 3 times in a row when you flip it.
Sounds like his odds to beat Rafa at RG in any round as well.
 

Cortana

Hall of Fame
It doesn't matter how many times Thiem was in Djokovics half. His chances of being in Djokovics half this year are still 50%.
 

duaneeo

Hall of Fame
Seems like a few people have short memories. While Rafa has swept all the clay tune ups several times, he's also had years where he lost several tune ups, but still won RG:

2011: Lost Madrid and Rome to Djokovic
2012: Lost MC and Rome to Djokovic, lost to Verdasco in Madrid
2013: Lost MC to Djokovic
2014: Lost MC to Ferrer, lost Barcelona to Almagro, lost Rome to Djokovic
2016: Lost Madrid to Murray and Rome to Djokovic
2017: Lost Rome to Thiem
2018: Lost Madrid to Thiem
2019: Lost MC to Fabio, lost to Thiem in Barcelona and lost to Tsitsipas in Madrid
But Rafa got important match play leading up to RG. Not so this year. And other than 2014, he had other titles on clay heading into RG.
 

Ash Tennis

Professional
Seems like a few people have short memories. While Rafa has swept all the clay tune ups several times, he's also had years where he lost several tune ups, but still won RG:

2011: Lost Madrid and Rome to Djokovic
2012: Lost MC and Rome to Djokovic, lost to Verdasco in Madrid
2013: Lost MC to Djokovic
2014: Lost MC to Ferrer, lost Barcelona to Almagro, lost Rome to Djokovic
2016: Lost Madrid to Murray and Rome to Djokovic
2017: Lost Rome to Thiem
2018: Lost Madrid to Thiem
2019: Lost MC to Fabio, lost to Thiem in Barcelona and lost to Tsitsipas in Madrid

BFD he lost to Diego, he's lost to total mugs in clay tune ups before, like Almugro and Verdasco.
2016 loss rg to joker.
 

ibbi

Legend
I think the only important thing is which half Thiem ends up in. I don't see any reason (on paper) that certainly Nadal needs to be worried about anyone else.
 

Beckerserve

Hall of Fame
Draw is going to be huge especially with nadal looking shaky and rusty ,if he lands thiem in his half then could be in for the toughest Rg title run ever for him.Add to that if some tough qf or earlier rounds he gets it may really tire him out early so draw is huge for rafa as well at this Rg as is for others
Surely Nadal would want Thiem? If he can beat him his confidence will soar. My worry would be he gets a soft draw then gets battle hard Djokovic or thiem in the final. After 6 months off nadal wont be fatigued. In fact he needs a long match
 

DSH

Legend
If Thiem beats Big2 in a row, it will signal the changing of the guard and Federer's most prestigious record will not be broken for long.
:)
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Oh, no question, all true. And people also discount the pressure on his shoulders in trying to tie Fed at #20. As he's aged, Rafa's mental strength has definitely eroded. But it's RG, so that's a different scene for him, to put it mildly.
It should add more pressure on his shoulders since he has the chance to tie Fed at his best slam. He will feel like he has to win this tournament even more now.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
But Rafa got important match play leading up to RG. Not so this year. And other than 2014, he had other titles on clay heading into RG.
In 2014 he also had a big clay title leading into RG, although it was obtained through pure luck.
 

DSH

Legend
Seems like a few people have short memories. While Rafa has swept all the clay tune ups several times, he's also had years where he lost several tune ups, but still won RG:

2011: Lost Madrid and Rome to Djokovic
2012: Lost MC and Rome to Djokovic, lost to Verdasco in Madrid
2013: Lost MC to Djokovic
2014: Lost MC to Ferrer, lost Barcelona to Almagro, lost Rome to Djokovic
2016: Lost Madrid to Murray and Rome to Djokovic
2017: Lost Rome to Thiem
2018: Lost Madrid to Thiem
2019: Lost MC to Fabio, lost to Thiem in Barcelona and lost to Tsitsipas in Madrid

BFD he lost to Diego, he's lost to total mugs in clay tune ups before, like Almugro and Verdasco.
o_O:giggle:
 

Cortana

Hall of Fame
Err do you know basics of probablity?
Yes I do, but clearly you have no idea what you are talking about.

The chance of being 3 times in a row in Djokovics half is 12.5% BEFORE those 3 tournaments. But if 2 are done and we are talking about the 3rd, the chance is still 50%.
 

ForehandCross

Hall of Fame
Yes I do, but clearly you have no idea what you are talking about.

The chance of being 3 times in a row in Djokovics half is 12.5% BEFORE those 3 tournaments. But if 2 are done and we are talking about the 3rd, the chance is still 50%.
No dear sir, this is your statement:
It doesn't matter how many times Thiem was in Djokovics half. His chances of being in Djokovics half this year are still 50%.
Now you talk about successive selection, and then say how it won't matter.
But succesive selection itself implies conditionality. It becomes more about the previous chronological selection leading to the event as well as the event itself.

I get what you are saying, but you have worded it wrong.
 
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