Duel Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Raonic & Djokovic vs Nishikori, Indian Wells & Miami finals, 2016


Hall of Fame
Novak Djokovic beat Milos Raonic 6-2, 6-0 in the Indian Wells final, 2016 on hard court

It was Djokovic's then record breaking 5th title at the event and 3rd in a row. He had recently won the Australian Open title. Raonic was playing his second Masters level final and would go onto play his first Slam final at WImbledon later in the year

Djokovic won 64 points, Raonic 37

Serve Stats
- 1st serve percentage (28/41) 68%
- 1st serve points won (22/28) 79%
- 2nd serve points won (8/13) 62%
- Aces 2 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (14/41) 32%

- 1st serve percentage (30/60) 50%
- 1st serve points won (23/30) 77%
- 2nd serve points won (3/30) 10%
- Aces 4, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (16/60) 27%

Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 63%
- to BH 25%
- to Body 13%

Raonic served...
- to FH 47%
- to BH 48%
- to Body 5%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 42 (18 FH, 24 BH), including 2 return-approaches
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 1 Unforced (1 FH)
- 10 Forced (7 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (42/58) 72%

Raonic made...
- 27 (19 FH, 8 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (7 FH, 1 BH)
- 3 Forced (2 FH, 1 BH)
- Return Rate (27/40) 68%

Break Points
Djokovic 5/11 (5 games)
Raonic 0

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 13 (7 FH, 2 BH, 2 FHV, 2 BHV)
Raonic 11 (4 FH, 2 FHV, 2 BHV, 3 OH)

Djokovic's FHs - 4 cc (1 pass), 1 dtl, 1 inside-out and 1 lob
- BHs - 2 dtl

- 1 from a return-approach point, a FHV
- 1 other FHV was a pass from no-man's land and has not been counted a net point

Raonic's FHs - 2 dtl and 2 inside-out

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a second volley OH

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 9
- 5 Unforced (3 FH, 1 BH, 1 BHV)
- 4 Forced (4 FH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 52

Raonic 36
- 30 Unforced (20 FH, 8 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)… with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- 6 Forced (2 FH, 3 BH, 1 FHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 7/8 (88%) at net, with...
- 2/2 return-approaching

Raonic was...
- 10/17 (59%) at net, including...
- 2/3 (67%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves

Match Report
Scoreline speaks for itself. Good from Djokovic + very poor from Raonic = thrashing on a slow hard court

Unforced errors (including double faults and returns) from Raonic accounts for 46 of the 64 points Djokovic wins. Chief culprit is FH, which has 20 (not counting 7 return UEs). Djokovic has 5 UEs total and 9 total errors. Its Raonic's choice to keep rallies FH based. He gives up the UEs quickly in neutral cc rallies and his attempts to attack inside-in and to lesser degree, inside-out, usually land out too

Raonic's 10% second serve points won is the lowest I've come across. Comparing with 3 double bagel recepients -
- '84 Forest Hills, Jimmy Connors had 40%
- '05 Year End Championship, Gaston Gaudio had 30%
- '13 Halle, Mischa Zverev had 27%

On positive side, some very good returning from Djokovic. Raonic's second serve would make a decent first serve. Its about as strong as Djoko's first serve in this match (Djoko's first serve being very ordinary, in the swing zone, regulation stuff). Not easy to attack or take initiative off

Djoko doesn't 'take initiative from it'. He hits back firmly and deep-ishly. A good, neutralizing return against a strong second serve. The rest of play to the tune of Raonic winning just 10% such points is down to Raonic's poor play. He misses a boatload of third balls of all types - FHs, BHs, neutral shots, attacking shots, passive-neutral shots. That's on him but still, good solid returning from Djoko. He doesn't miss a second serve return (@krosero )and virtually every single one is hit back firmly

Couple of uncharacteristic return-approaches from Djoko too. One's a perfectly played point - strong FH dtl return, charge net and a very nice, low FHV that he drops for a winner

The Raonic first serve is of course, huge and almost unreturnable. Good job by Djoko to get it back in play reasonably often in first set particularly. Raonic finishes serving near even across wings (47% to FH, 48% to BH) but that's strongly different by set. In first set, he serves mostly to FH - generally, Djoko's slightly less consistent but more damaging side. And good move from Raonic to change up serving pattern given Djoko's strong returning

Raonic takes a medical time out between sets. Not sure what's wrong with him. His movements are a bit more ginger in second set, not that its lightening fast in first set. In general, he's not a good mover. More importantly, quality of his serve falls off, particularly first serve. It remains a good one, but shy of his typical unreturnable delivery

That would be the highlight of the match. Djoko's firm and consistent returning against a great serve. Even under-personal par serving from Raonic is strong by a general standard... good job by Djoko on the return

On flip side, ordinary, in swing-zone serving from Djoko and pretty poor returning from Raonic. 8 of his 11 return errors have been marked unforced. Most are regulation first serves to FH. Djoko leads unreturned serve rates 32% to 27%

Play is basic enough. Raonic does 'lead' it in that its his choice to keep matters FH-FH, which plays out badly for him (FH UEs - Djoko 3, Raonic 20). This includes approaching to Djoko's FH and Raonic usually goes FH inside-in rather than his usually preferred inside-out. He's 8/14 rallying to net and 2/3 serve-volleying

Good net numbers or at least, much better than baseline ones but that doesn't open up alternatives for him. He's won 77% first serve points anyway, so serve-volleying more doesn't suggest itself. And Djoko's solidly firm enough off the ground that manufacturing approaches would be difficult. It isn't until the very end that Djoko ups his hitting to beat-down strong shots, as opposed to firm and deep-ish for rest of match. Either way, its more than enough for Raonic

Summing up, good firm returning by Djokovic against a strong serve and some solid groundstrokes to back it up. More than that, terrible stuff from Raonic off the ground, especially the FH and to lesser extent, the return (also mostly off FH)

Stats for Djokovic's other Indian Wells finals -
- '08 against Mardy Fish - Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Fish, Indian Wells final, 2008 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)
- '11 against Rafael Nadal - Duel Match Stats/Reports - Djokovic vs Nadal, Indian Wells & Miami finals, 2011 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)
- '14 & '15 against Roger Federer - Duel Match Stats/Reports - Djokovic vs Federer, Indian Wells finals, 2014 & 2015 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)


Hall of Fame
Djokovic beat Kei Nishikori 6-3, 6-3 in the Miami final, 2016 on hard court

The win gave Djokovic his third consecutive 'Sunshine Double' and was his record tying 6th title at the event. Nishikori was playing in his second Masters final. Later in the year, the two would contest the Canadian Open final, with Djokovic again winning

Djokovic won 65 points, Nishikori 44

Serve Stats
- 1st serve percentage (28/43) 65%
- 1st serve points won (22/28) 79%
- 2nd serve points won (9/15) 60%
- Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (11/43) 26%

- 1st serve percentage (34/66) 52%
- 1st serve points won (18/34) 53%
- 2nd serve points won (14/32) 44%
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (12/66) 18%

Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 51%
- to BH 41%
- to Body 7%

Nishikori served...
- to FH 43%
- to BH 41%
- to Body 16%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 49 (29 FH, 20 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 12 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (3 FH, 3 BH)
- 6 Forced (4 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (49/61) 80%

Nishikori made...
- 30 (17 FH, 13 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 10 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (2 FH, 4 BH)
- 4 Forced (2 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (30/41) 73%

Break Points
Djokovic 5/9 (6 games)
Nishikori 2/2

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 13 (6 FH, 6 BH, 1 OH)
Nishikori 10 (7 FH, 1 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)

Djokovic's FHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 2 dtl, 1 dtl/inside-out and 1 inside-in
- BHs - 5 dtl (2 passes) and 1 inside-out

Nishikori 's FHs - 2 dtl, 1 inside-out/longline, 2 longline, 1 longline/inside-out and 1 drop shot
- BHs - 1 inside-out return

- the OH was on the bounce

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 20
- 18 Unforced (9 FH, 8 BH, 1 BHV)
- 2 Forced (2 FH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.9

Nishikori 36
- 26 Unforced (15 FH, 10 BH, 1 BHV)
- 10 Forced (3 FH, 7 BH)... with 2 BH running-down-drop-shots at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.5

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was 4/5 (80%) at net

Nishikori was 3/9 (33%) at net

Match Report
Another, straightforward baseline match on a slower court. Djokovic is a class above his opponent at it, and though Nishikori stumbling is the biggest determinant of play, there is some competitive and lively action with scope for both players to shine

Serve isn't much of a factor. 0 aces all match and low unreturned rates of 26% for Djoko, 18% for Nish. 6 UEs apiece on return, most of them regulation first serve returns. Djoko serving at 65% to Nish's 52% edges the serve alone

Some good returning from both players. Deep-ish, firmly hit stuff down the middle. Djokovic getting a dose of his own medicine, forced to start rallies neutrally or even at slight handicap after Nish's return. He dishes out the same

And then they rally from the back. Just 14 net points between the pair for the match, and a couple of those are forced

Two differences emerge. Djoko being more consistent (baseline UEs 17 to Nish's 25) and being very strong defensively (he's forced into just 2 errors, while forcing 10)
Despite trailing winners 10-13 and marginally trailing UEFI (48.5 to 48.9), Nish is the more proactive player from the back. He's just not too good at being proactive

Both players hit deep and firmly. Nish is looks to hit wide more often. He misses a lot of balls going close to lines. What he makes is run down and hit back firmly. About as firmly as though the position was neutral or/and stationary, as opposed to Djoko being on the move and/or pulled out wide while making his shot as is the case

Usually from such a position, Nish would be in control. Djoko's counter-hitting is very good and as often as not, results in that not being the case. Such points are more like a neutral rally - and Djoko has advantage in basic consistency

So from Nishikori's point of view -
- when he pushes Djoko back or wide, he's not getting results. Djoko hits as strongly on run as from stationary position. Decent moving-opponent-around play from Nishi but Djoko moves around and hits too well
- he makes errors trying to push Djoko wide and back
- he makes errors from neutral situations trying to initiate taking charge of point with wide hit shots

To be clear, playing dynamics are far from Nish attacking and Djoko counter-punching. Djoko takes charge too good chunk of time, but more often than not, its the other way around. Djoko tends to look to take charge with depth rather than wide hitting. His play is far more solid and he's able to finish points when he's leading play regularly (often via Nish UE)

To be more clear, Nish's overall showing from the back is below par with errors coming regularly. More discredit to him than credit Djoko, but at least there's some scope for Djoko to shine and demonstrate something other than basic, keep ball in play that did for Raonic

Match Progression
Great game to start match, with Nish breaking to 15, hitting deep, neutralizing returns and bossing Djoko from baseline. The kind of thing Djoko usually does to his opponents.
He's broken right back to same score with 3 sloppy FH errors (2 winner attempts, 2 third balls)

Excellent Djoko BH inside-out winner awhile later, preceded by a pair of Nish FH dtl ones
Djoko breaks to go up again, bring up break point by defending without strain to draw a FH UE and finishing with a BH dtl pass winner
Nish breaks right back, with Djoko missing a pair of BH dtls. On break point, Nish hits a BH inside-out return winner that was comfortably out but goes uncalled. Oddly, Djoko, who generally is one of the best judges of close line calls and rarely makes a mistake on challenges, doesn't challenge.

Sloppy game from Nish to get broken after that and Djoko serves out to love, his third love hold for the set

Playing standard drops in second set. Djoko gains break to start - ending a long rally with a wonderful short slice that forces an error hanging in defensively with a lob retrieval in a baseline point before Nish moves forward and misses routine BHV. For rest of match, Djoko holds comfortably, Nish struggles. A nice Nish FH drop shot winner and a great Djoko running FH cc pass are highlights of action

Nishi takes a medical time out down 3-4 and is limping slightly. He loses both games after to end match

Summing up, fairly solid from Djokovic with some very good counter-hitting on the run. Nishikori misses too many balls going close to lines and even when he makes such shots, can't see it through to winning points. Good from Djokovic, not good from Nishikori... more not good from Nishikori than good from Djokovic