Novak Djokovic beat Milos Raonic 6-2, 6-0 in the Indian Wells final, 2016 on hard court
It was Djokovic's then record breaking 5th title at the event and 3rd in a row. He had recently won the Australian Open title. Raonic was playing his second Masters level final and would go onto play his first Slam final at WImbledon later in the year
Djokovic won 64 points, Raonic 37
Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (28/41) 68%
- 1st serve points won (22/28) 79%
- 2nd serve points won (8/13) 62%
- Aces 2 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (14/41) 32%
Raonic....
- 1st serve percentage (30/60) 50%
- 1st serve points won (23/30) 77%
- 2nd serve points won (3/30) 10%
- Aces 4, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (16/60) 27%
Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 63%
- to BH 25%
- to Body 13%
Raonic served...
- to FH 47%
- to BH 48%
- to Body 5%
Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 42 (18 FH, 24 BH), including 2 return-approaches
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 1 Unforced (1 FH)
- 10 Forced (7 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (42/58) 72%
Raonic made...
- 27 (19 FH, 8 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (7 FH, 1 BH)
- 3 Forced (2 FH, 1 BH)
- Return Rate (27/40) 68%
Break Points
Djokovic 5/11 (5 games)
Raonic 0
Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 13 (7 FH, 2 BH, 2 FHV, 2 BHV)
Raonic 11 (4 FH, 2 FHV, 2 BHV, 3 OH)
Djokovic's FHs - 4 cc (1 pass), 1 dtl, 1 inside-out and 1 lob
- BHs - 2 dtl
- 1 from a return-approach point, a FHV
- 1 other FHV was a pass from no-man's land and has not been counted a net point
Raonic's FHs - 2 dtl and 2 inside-out
- 1 from a serve-volley point, a second volley OH
Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 9
- 5 Unforced (3 FH, 1 BH, 1 BHV)
- 4 Forced (4 FH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 52
Raonic 36
- 30 Unforced (20 FH, 8 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)… with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- 6 Forced (2 FH, 3 BH, 1 FHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46
(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)
(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 7/8 (88%) at net, with...
- 2/2 return-approaching
Raonic was...
- 10/17 (59%) at net, including...
- 2/3 (67%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
Match Report
Scoreline speaks for itself. Good from Djokovic + very poor from Raonic = thrashing on a slow hard court
Unforced errors (including double faults and returns) from Raonic accounts for 46 of the 64 points Djokovic wins. Chief culprit is FH, which has 20 (not counting 7 return UEs). Djokovic has 5 UEs total and 9 total errors. Its Raonic's choice to keep rallies FH based. He gives up the UEs quickly in neutral cc rallies and his attempts to attack inside-in and to lesser degree, inside-out, usually land out too
Raonic's 10% second serve points won is the lowest I've come across. Comparing with 3 double bagel recepients -
- '84 Forest Hills, Jimmy Connors had 40%
- '05 Year End Championship, Gaston Gaudio had 30%
- '13 Halle, Mischa Zverev had 27%
On positive side, some very good returning from Djokovic. Raonic's second serve would make a decent first serve. Its about as strong as Djoko's first serve in this match (Djoko's first serve being very ordinary, in the swing zone, regulation stuff). Not easy to attack or take initiative off
Djoko doesn't 'take initiative from it'. He hits back firmly and deep-ishly. A good, neutralizing return against a strong second serve. The rest of play to the tune of Raonic winning just 10% such points is down to Raonic's poor play. He misses a boatload of third balls of all types - FHs, BHs, neutral shots, attacking shots, passive-neutral shots. That's on him but still, good solid returning from Djoko. He doesn't miss a second serve return (@krosero )and virtually every single one is hit back firmly
Couple of uncharacteristic return-approaches from Djoko too. One's a perfectly played point - strong FH dtl return, charge net and a very nice, low FHV that he drops for a winner
The Raonic first serve is of course, huge and almost unreturnable. Good job by Djoko to get it back in play reasonably often in first set particularly. Raonic finishes serving near even across wings (47% to FH, 48% to BH) but that's strongly different by set. In first set, he serves mostly to FH - generally, Djoko's slightly less consistent but more damaging side. And good move from Raonic to change up serving pattern given Djoko's strong returning
Raonic takes a medical time out between sets. Not sure what's wrong with him. His movements are a bit more ginger in second set, not that its lightening fast in first set. In general, he's not a good mover. More importantly, quality of his serve falls off, particularly first serve. It remains a good one, but shy of his typical unreturnable delivery
That would be the highlight of the match. Djoko's firm and consistent returning against a great serve. Even under-personal par serving from Raonic is strong by a general standard... good job by Djoko on the return
On flip side, ordinary, in swing-zone serving from Djoko and pretty poor returning from Raonic. 8 of his 11 return errors have been marked unforced. Most are regulation first serves to FH. Djoko leads unreturned serve rates 32% to 27%
Play is basic enough. Raonic does 'lead' it in that its his choice to keep matters FH-FH, which plays out badly for him (FH UEs - Djoko 3, Raonic 20). This includes approaching to Djoko's FH and Raonic usually goes FH inside-in rather than his usually preferred inside-out. He's 8/14 rallying to net and 2/3 serve-volleying
Good net numbers or at least, much better than baseline ones but that doesn't open up alternatives for him. He's won 77% first serve points anyway, so serve-volleying more doesn't suggest itself. And Djoko's solidly firm enough off the ground that manufacturing approaches would be difficult. It isn't until the very end that Djoko ups his hitting to beat-down strong shots, as opposed to firm and deep-ish for rest of match. Either way, its more than enough for Raonic
Summing up, good firm returning by Djokovic against a strong serve and some solid groundstrokes to back it up. More than that, terrible stuff from Raonic off the ground, especially the FH and to lesser extent, the return (also mostly off FH)
Stats for Djokovic's other Indian Wells finals -
- '08 against Mardy Fish - Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Fish, Indian Wells final, 2008 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)
- '11 against Rafael Nadal - Duel Match Stats/Reports - Djokovic vs Nadal, Indian Wells & Miami finals, 2011 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)
- '14 & '15 against Roger Federer - Duel Match Stats/Reports - Djokovic vs Federer, Indian Wells finals, 2014 & 2015 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)
It was Djokovic's then record breaking 5th title at the event and 3rd in a row. He had recently won the Australian Open title. Raonic was playing his second Masters level final and would go onto play his first Slam final at WImbledon later in the year
Djokovic won 64 points, Raonic 37
Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (28/41) 68%
- 1st serve points won (22/28) 79%
- 2nd serve points won (8/13) 62%
- Aces 2 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (14/41) 32%
Raonic....
- 1st serve percentage (30/60) 50%
- 1st serve points won (23/30) 77%
- 2nd serve points won (3/30) 10%
- Aces 4, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (16/60) 27%
Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 63%
- to BH 25%
- to Body 13%
Raonic served...
- to FH 47%
- to BH 48%
- to Body 5%
Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 42 (18 FH, 24 BH), including 2 return-approaches
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 1 Unforced (1 FH)
- 10 Forced (7 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (42/58) 72%
Raonic made...
- 27 (19 FH, 8 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (7 FH, 1 BH)
- 3 Forced (2 FH, 1 BH)
- Return Rate (27/40) 68%
Break Points
Djokovic 5/11 (5 games)
Raonic 0
Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 13 (7 FH, 2 BH, 2 FHV, 2 BHV)
Raonic 11 (4 FH, 2 FHV, 2 BHV, 3 OH)
Djokovic's FHs - 4 cc (1 pass), 1 dtl, 1 inside-out and 1 lob
- BHs - 2 dtl
- 1 from a return-approach point, a FHV
- 1 other FHV was a pass from no-man's land and has not been counted a net point
Raonic's FHs - 2 dtl and 2 inside-out
- 1 from a serve-volley point, a second volley OH
Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 9
- 5 Unforced (3 FH, 1 BH, 1 BHV)
- 4 Forced (4 FH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 52
Raonic 36
- 30 Unforced (20 FH, 8 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)… with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- 6 Forced (2 FH, 3 BH, 1 FHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46
(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)
(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 7/8 (88%) at net, with...
- 2/2 return-approaching
Raonic was...
- 10/17 (59%) at net, including...
- 2/3 (67%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
Match Report
Scoreline speaks for itself. Good from Djokovic + very poor from Raonic = thrashing on a slow hard court
Unforced errors (including double faults and returns) from Raonic accounts for 46 of the 64 points Djokovic wins. Chief culprit is FH, which has 20 (not counting 7 return UEs). Djokovic has 5 UEs total and 9 total errors. Its Raonic's choice to keep rallies FH based. He gives up the UEs quickly in neutral cc rallies and his attempts to attack inside-in and to lesser degree, inside-out, usually land out too
Raonic's 10% second serve points won is the lowest I've come across. Comparing with 3 double bagel recepients -
- '84 Forest Hills, Jimmy Connors had 40%
- '05 Year End Championship, Gaston Gaudio had 30%
- '13 Halle, Mischa Zverev had 27%
On positive side, some very good returning from Djokovic. Raonic's second serve would make a decent first serve. Its about as strong as Djoko's first serve in this match (Djoko's first serve being very ordinary, in the swing zone, regulation stuff). Not easy to attack or take initiative off
Djoko doesn't 'take initiative from it'. He hits back firmly and deep-ishly. A good, neutralizing return against a strong second serve. The rest of play to the tune of Raonic winning just 10% such points is down to Raonic's poor play. He misses a boatload of third balls of all types - FHs, BHs, neutral shots, attacking shots, passive-neutral shots. That's on him but still, good solid returning from Djoko. He doesn't miss a second serve return (@krosero )and virtually every single one is hit back firmly
Couple of uncharacteristic return-approaches from Djoko too. One's a perfectly played point - strong FH dtl return, charge net and a very nice, low FHV that he drops for a winner
The Raonic first serve is of course, huge and almost unreturnable. Good job by Djoko to get it back in play reasonably often in first set particularly. Raonic finishes serving near even across wings (47% to FH, 48% to BH) but that's strongly different by set. In first set, he serves mostly to FH - generally, Djoko's slightly less consistent but more damaging side. And good move from Raonic to change up serving pattern given Djoko's strong returning
Raonic takes a medical time out between sets. Not sure what's wrong with him. His movements are a bit more ginger in second set, not that its lightening fast in first set. In general, he's not a good mover. More importantly, quality of his serve falls off, particularly first serve. It remains a good one, but shy of his typical unreturnable delivery
That would be the highlight of the match. Djoko's firm and consistent returning against a great serve. Even under-personal par serving from Raonic is strong by a general standard... good job by Djoko on the return
On flip side, ordinary, in swing-zone serving from Djoko and pretty poor returning from Raonic. 8 of his 11 return errors have been marked unforced. Most are regulation first serves to FH. Djoko leads unreturned serve rates 32% to 27%
Play is basic enough. Raonic does 'lead' it in that its his choice to keep matters FH-FH, which plays out badly for him (FH UEs - Djoko 3, Raonic 20). This includes approaching to Djoko's FH and Raonic usually goes FH inside-in rather than his usually preferred inside-out. He's 8/14 rallying to net and 2/3 serve-volleying
Good net numbers or at least, much better than baseline ones but that doesn't open up alternatives for him. He's won 77% first serve points anyway, so serve-volleying more doesn't suggest itself. And Djoko's solidly firm enough off the ground that manufacturing approaches would be difficult. It isn't until the very end that Djoko ups his hitting to beat-down strong shots, as opposed to firm and deep-ish for rest of match. Either way, its more than enough for Raonic
Summing up, good firm returning by Djokovic against a strong serve and some solid groundstrokes to back it up. More than that, terrible stuff from Raonic off the ground, especially the FH and to lesser extent, the return (also mostly off FH)
Stats for Djokovic's other Indian Wells finals -
- '08 against Mardy Fish - Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Fish, Indian Wells final, 2008 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)
- '11 against Rafael Nadal - Duel Match Stats/Reports - Djokovic vs Nadal, Indian Wells & Miami finals, 2011 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)
- '14 & '15 against Roger Federer - Duel Match Stats/Reports - Djokovic vs Federer, Indian Wells finals, 2014 & 2015 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)