Duel Match Stats/Report - Nadal vs Federer, Australian Open finals 2009 & 2017

W

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Two finals on the hardcourts of the Australian Open, eight years apart

In 2009, Rafael Nadal beat Roger Federer 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(3), 3-6, 6-2

The 2009 result marked the 3rd time in the last 4 Slams that Nadal had bested Federer in the final and denied Federer a then record equalling 14th Grand Slam title. As events transpired, Federer would go onto to tie and then break the record at the next two Slam events

Nadal won 173 points, Federer 174

Serve Stats
Nadal...
- 1st serve percentage ((114/175) 65%
- 1st serve points won (75/114) 66%
- 2nd serve points won (29/61) 48%
- Aces 4, Service Winners 2
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (33/175) 19%

Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (93/172) 54%
- 1st serve points won (67/93) 72%
- 2nd serve points won (36/79) 46%
- Aces 9, Service Winners 8
- Double Faults 6
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (39/172) 23%

Serve Patterns
Nadal served...
- to FH 11%
- to BH 84%
- to Body 5%

Federer served...
- to FH 29%
- to BH 71%

Return Stats
Nadal made...
- 121 (45 FH, 76 BH), including 13 runaround FHs
- 3 Winners (2 FH, 1 BH)
- 22 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (2 FH, 7 BH)
- 13 Forced (3 FH, 10 BH)
- Return Rate (121/166) 73%

Federer made...
- 138 (18 FH, 120 BH), including 5 runaround FHs and 1 return-approach
- 4 Winners (2 FH, 2 BH), both FHs being runarounds
- 27 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (1 FH, 5 BH)
- 21 Forced (2 FH, 19 BH)
- Return Rate (138/171) 81%

Break Points
Nadal 7/16 (10 games)
Federer 6/19 (9 games)

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Nadal 41 (26 FH, 14 BH, 1 BHV)
Federer 54 (28 FH, 13 BH, 5 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 4 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 2 OH)

Nadal's FHs comprise 7 cc, 6 inside-out, 2 dtl, 1 longline into the middle of the court and 1 drop shot

- In addition, he had 7 FH passes (2 cc, 5 dtl) and 1 BH pass (1 dtl)

- 2 further FH returns (1 dtl, 1 inside-out) and 1 BH return (1 cc)

- non return BHs are 8 cc, 3 dtl and 1 drop shot

Federer's FHs comprise 9 cc, 9 inside-out, 5 dtl, 1 inside-in and 1 longline.
- 2 FH returns (1 inside-in, 1 inside-out) to go with 2 BH returns (2 cc), one of which was a net chord dribbler

- 4 passes (1 FH, 3 BH). The FH was a non-clean cc. The 3 BHs (2 cc, 1 dtl)

- Of non-pass BHs, 4 cc (1 not clean), 3 dtl (1 slightly inside-out) and 1 drop shot

- He had 6 S/V point winners (3 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 BH1/2V). 4 were first 'volleys' (2 FHV {1 swinging}, 1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V), 2 were second volleys (1 FHV, 1 BHV)

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Nadal 79
- 31 Unforced (16 FH, 14 BH, 1 BHV)
- 48 Forced (20 FH, 25 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 43.2

Federer 89
- 55 Unforced (26 FH, 25 BH, 3 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 34 Forced (16 FH, 16 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.3

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)
(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Nadal was 10/22 (45%) at net and had no S/V

Federer was 33/49 (67%), including 12/15 (80%) S/V'ng - off first serves 9/12 (75%) + 2/2 'delayed' serve-volleying, off second serves 1/1
He was 1/1 return-approaching and 1/2 when forced back or retreated

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In 2017, Federer beat Nadal 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3

The win gave Federer his first Slam title in 5 years and was his first tournament back from a six month injury layoff, while Nadal was playing his first Slam final in 3 years and had also missed the last part of the previous season with injury

Federer won 150 points, Nadal 139

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (85/138) 62%
- 1st serve points won (65/85) 76%
- 2nd serve points won (26/53) 49%
- Aces 20 (1 2nd serve), 1 Service Winner
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (45/138) 33%

Nadal....
- 1st serve percentage (110/151) 73%
- 1st serve points won (69/110) 63%
- 2nd serve points won (23/41) 56%
- Aces 4 (2 2nd serves), 3 Service Winners
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (39/151) 26%

Serve Patterns
Federer served...
- to FH 36%
- to BH 64%

Nadal served....
- to FH 31%
- to BH 57%
- to Body 12%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 114 (40 FH, 74 BH), including 5 runaround FHs
- 2 Winners (2 BH)
- 27 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (2 FH, 3 BH), including 1 runaround FH attempt
- 22 Forced (9 FH, 13 BH)
- Return Rate (114/148) 77%

Nadal made...
- 90 (44 FH, 46 BH), including 13 runaround FHs
- 4 Winners (1 FH, 3 BH)
- 24 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (2 FH, 3 BH), including 1 runaround FH attempt
- 19 Forced (6 FH, 13 BH)
- Return Rate (90/135) 67%

Break Points
Federer 6/20 (10 games)
Nadal 4/17 (8 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Federer 51 (28 FH, 12 BH, 6 FHV, 3 BHV, 2 OH)
Nadal 30 (20 FH, 8 BH, 2 BHV)

Federer's FHs are 9 inside-out, 9 cc, 6 dtl, 1 longline, 1 inside-in and 2 net chord dribblers

- On the BH, 6 cc, 4 dtl, 1 inside-out. He has a further 2 BH returns (1 cc, 1 dtl)

- 2 Serve-volley point shots, both first volleys (1 FHV, 1 OH).

- 2 other FHVs are swinging shots

Nadal's non-pass FHs are 7 dtl, 4 cc, 3 inside-out, 2 inside-in, 1 at net and 1 net chord dribbler. He has 1 further return dtl

- 4 passes (1 FH, 3 BH). The FH is dtl. 2 BHs are returns (1 cc, 1 dtl) and the non-return is cc

- non-pass BHs are 3 cc (1 return), 1 dtl and 1 running down a drop shot

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Federer 73
- 48 Unforced (25 FH, 20 BH, 2 BHV, 1 OH)
- 25 Forced (17 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.7

Nadal 50
- 18 Unforced (12 FH, 6 BH)
- 32 Forced (24 FH, 8 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.2

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was 27/37 (73%) at net, including 9/12 (75%) S/V'ng - off 1st serve 7/8 (88%), off 2nd serve 2/4 (50%)

Nadal was 6/7 (86%) at net, with no S/V
 
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Match Reports
I wanted to have a look at these two matches to get a sense of just how much had changed in the play of these two players. While common sense says at the ages they were at in 2017 that they had declined significantly, I still want to re-check the action for myself. A very common experience of mine is looking at told matches I'd watched years ago.... and the action much different from what I remembered

The most obvious difference is in the speed of both players. They're both haring about the court in 2009 and downright slow in comparison by 2017

Match Report 2009
The 2009 affair is played on a relatively slow hard court and their are plenty of lengthy rallies in it. You can see the unreturned serve percentage is low (Federer 23%, Nadal 19%), but in addition to the pace of the court, that's attributable to Federer's poor service numbers. For most of the match, he's serving under 50%.

Its a strange match. The commentators make much of Nadal having had a days less rest - and having played the longest match in Australian Open history in the semi (a 5+ hours affair with Verdasco). Nadal seems to overcompensatingly make a show of being raring to go - running out his chair and in a rush to get on with the action (which he rarely does when normal). Though error strewn, the first set features great tennis - Nadal being quite aggressive for such a consistent player, Federer being quite consistent for such an aggressive player. There are 5 breaks - the highlight is Nadal breaking with back-to-back miraculous get type winners - a FH dtl pass and an equally ridiculous BH cc. And Federer double faults on that particular break point.

But Federer wins set 2, despite making just 10/27 first serves. Meanwhile, Nadal is really taking targeting the BH return to an extreme. By the end of the first set, he's served once to the FH and something like 40 times to the BH. And of course, he routinely targets the BH in play with his big FH cc. In set 2, Federer begins to get more comfortable in these exchanges and his BH holds up relatively well

Set 3 is where Federer loses the match. Nadal is clearly tired and even has the trainer tend to him at a couple of changeovers. He's no longer running around like the energy bunny and Federer has 6 break chances to Nadal's 1. To Nadal's credit, he does step it up when under pressure, but Federer is clearly the better player at this stage. Against the run of play, Nadal comfortably takes the tiebreak.

Federer breaks early in the fourth with a sensationally aggressive return game and later, holds off 5 break points in a 20 point game to force a decider. In that decider however, he goes on the bender of all benders, spraying errors right, left and center. Sometimes, a player has a lot of errors but in longer rallies and we don't think they necessarily played badly but not in the 5th set of this match. Federer just makes over-aggressive errors early in a rally and practically hands Nadal the match.

As noted earlier, Federer serves relatively poorly and is fortunate to get away with it. But where he really shows a lack of imagination and/or excess stubbornness is in sticking to the same old strategy on return.

Look at the numbers, keeping in mind that Federer has a significantly more potent second serve than Nadal. Nadal runs around 13 BH returns to strike a FH to Federer's 5. Of the 5, Federer hits 2 winners and does not make an error of any kind. And Nadal serves relentlessly to the BH - its not as if Federer doesn't know its coming

But he keeps on pushing and slicing BH returns. I think this reflects stubbornness more than anything else because as I recall, this is generally how Federer played against everyone. Its his comfort zone. The difference is that no one else could abuse the (relatively) weak 3rd ball the way Nadal can and does. Even so, the match is close

Its almost as if by matches like this and the Wimbledon 2008 final being so close, Nadal has tricked Federer into not trying something different. I believe he was capable, but not willing.... and maybe its slightly harsh, in the light of hindsight, to criticize him for it

A further point of interest is how well Nadal hits his BH all match. He hits some extremely powerful shots from that wing and maybe even scares Federer away from trying to go FH cc. Federer largely keeps his FH attacks inside-out as he likes to do but of course, that's a riskier shot... likely a calculated (and ultimately successful) ploy by the Spaniard

Match Report 2017
This match is played on a significantly faster surface and the big change is in Federer beefing up his BH - returns and otherwise. And Nadal knows it. His serve pattern is for once, fairly balanced (31% to FH, 57% to BH, 12% to Body). The other key factor is how much Nadal has slowed down. Federer has too, but speed was always a bigger part of Nadal's game then Federer's.

There are relatively more forced errors than unforced compared to 2009. This reflects the court speed but also the slowing down of the two players. A number of balls both players were apt to run down and strike from a stable position they can only reach on the stretch (or even fail to reach and let go by for a winner.... this is particularly true for Nadal)

In a strange way, I'm more impressed with Nadal than I am with Federer in the match. Federer has his big serve, he returns with great consistency and is belting BHs every which way. In other words, he's largely compensated for being slower of foot than in 2009. Nadal by contrast, hasn't.

The serve is the same, the FH has lost bite and he can't run down balls like he used to. So what exactly does that leave him with? Consistency of groundstrokes (that is, not making many errors) but that of course, was present even in years gone by. And mental strength. Nadal keeps this match competitive virtually on the strength of that alone because Federer is far and away the better player.

Federer hits the BH cleanly - off the return and otherwise, crosscourt or down the line - all match. And he can still hit sharp, court opening angles with it. Nadal (wisely) refrains from the old trick of persistently banging down FH crosscourts… with the decline in his own FH and the incline in the Swiss' BH.... those rallies go against Nadal as often as not.

Still, Nadal pushes the match to a 5th set by remaining consistent and tough. This would be expected if Federer was playing wildly aggressive tennis, but he isn't. Federer, as always, is aggressive, but not unduly so. He rallies neutrally and picks his moments to go for the throat. He even holds up ok rallying neutrally... more so than in years past (certainly the other final at this venue). Federer is constructing points, not going for broke

The BH, which had been strong all match, goes up two notches further in the decider. Fed knocks down 8 BH winners (also 8 from the FH and 5 aces). So that's 8 in the set to 4 in the rest of the match.

After a career of having his BH broken down by those huge Nadal FHs, this must have been particularly satisfying for the Swiss. And with the go-to play that had worked so well for years thrown for a loop and sans the ability to run down impossible balls (I imagine if Nadal still had his youthful speed/astonishing ability to retrieve, he would probably have come up on top.... he thwarted a number of equivalent to what turned out to be winners in 2017 in the 2009 final), its no surprise the H2H turned so drastically this year

Summary brilliant from Fed, very gutsy from Nadal
 
Very interesting. You paint a pretty dire picture of Nadal's level in 2017 which makes sense given his results in the rest of the tournament. I'm curious what you think the difference is between Rafa here and in USO 17. Do you think they are similar and had Fed been in form he'd have taken the title? I'm inclined to believe he would have. What about AO 2020 Djokovic? How does he stack up to these 2?
 
The Guru said:
Very interesting. You paint a pretty dire picture of Nadal's level in 2017 which makes sense given his results in the rest of the tournament. I'm curious what you think the difference is between Rafa here and in USO 17. Do you think they are similar and had Fed been in form he'd have taken the title? I'm inclined to believe he would have. What about AO 2020 Djokovic? How does he stack up to these 2?
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Nadal is better in Decoturf than in Plexicushion and Federer's performance in Flushing Meadows, since he turned 30 he has not been anything special with the exception of 2011 and 2015, and even the latter is clearly inferior to the period where he won 5 consecutive titles.
Nadal in 4 sets!
:cool:
 
The Guru said:
Very interesting. You paint a pretty dire picture of Nadal's level in 2017 which makes sense given his results in the rest of the tournament. I'm curious what you think the difference is between Rafa here and in USO 17. Do you think they are similar and had Fed been in form he'd have taken the title? I'm inclined to believe he would have. What about AO 2020 Djokovic? How does he stack up to these 2?
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Had Federer not been injured, he would have likely beaten Nadal at USO in 2017. Nadal was completely clueless on how to play Federer at that time, on any type of hard court. Federer likely would have done the job in four sets. Nadal 2018 would have a better chance against Federer 2018 at USO IMO.

Djokovic 2020 still beats Federer and Nadal 2017 versions. Remember both Federer and Nadal were pushed to multiple five set matches even before they had one against each other. Djokovic, with the way he plays them, would win both matches in four sets.
 
I can dig Waspsting’s overall analysis of both matches, but to me Rafa having a day less rest after the semi war with Dimitrov was the straw that broke the camel’s back in 2017. In 2009 Nadal could handle it, plus it helped that Fed totally choked the 5th set. Recovering in 1 day in 2017 was too big an ask for Rafa physically imo. I do realize Fed also had a 5-set semi and 2 others iirc but Fed plays shorter points and is smoother.

I anecdotally thought Rafa’s movement was heavy in 2017 final but I also agree 110% with Fed’s much improved rally bh, return bh, & overall skill set (I know it’s hard to believe, rt, considering how skilled Fed’s always been).
 
Tremendous writeups, as always :D I want to just agree with one point and disagree with another.

Firstly, Nadal ALWAYS does the overcompensating running around thing before the match! Or he used to anyway, he's definitely toned it down in his old age. I remember him sprinting to the baseline to start the fifth set breaker in the Rome 2006 final.

Also, very much agree with what you say about the 2017 final. Federer clearly the superior player, that rejuvenated backhand the story of the match, but the way he read Nadal's supposedly smarter serve (that he had rejigged some with Moya on board and had served him well through the tournament) like a childrens book.

For Nadal it really was all about the heart, the fight, and I think the 5th set was testament to that more than anything else. Gets that early break, and then Federer launches a blitz of an assault on him, and he wards him off with everything he's got left in the tank, even after he loses the break advantage and Federer is in the ascendancy he never stops trying to hold him off. Look how hard he made that final game!

That fifth set, ugh, it's the stuff of legend. Nadal the warrior he's always been, but Federer with a totally new outlook, taking it to his long time bully in a way relatively rare in their rivalry.
 
The Guru said:
Very interesting. You paint a pretty dire picture of Nadal's level in 2017 which makes sense given his results in the rest of the tournament. I'm curious what you think the difference is between Rafa here and in USO 17. Do you think they are similar and had Fed been in form he'd have taken the title? I'm inclined to believe he would have. What about AO 2020 Djokovic? How does he stack up to these 2?
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Won't comment too strongly on '17 US... comparing something from memory vs comparing something based on the attention I put into matches I stat is like the difference between reading a book for fun and reading it having to write a 10 page college standard essay for

In my opinion, Nadal would have been favourite at US Open against Federer on pure playing ability (he might have been suffering from mental issues)

The big difference in these early '17 hard court matches and their ones in years gone by was Federer's BH. It could and did hurt Nadal in a way it had never done before

But that seems to have been an anomaly, not a permanent, long term change in his game. It was gone by Wimbledon, where he played tremendously and injury free

Though not being as quick around the court, Nadal re-claimed his standing as the most consistent (i.e. least unforced error-prone) player in the world by the US Open

On that slow US Open court, i'd favour him to outlast Federer more than Federer to blow him away, especially if he has a safe spot to go to

You hear a lot about Nadal breaking down Federer's BH in general, and while that's obviously true, it's not the only thing that was going on. If rallies are getting a bit livelier than Nadal would like, he could always find Fed's BH... and put a stopper on any momentum Fed built. Not win the point with the shot, but reset it so to speak back to situation that's likely to end with an error (and Nadal's always favourite to come out ahead on those). Fed's BH had reverted to being a safe place to go to by Fall '17 and it seems to have done so independent of fitness

And its unlikely Fed could get a big bunch of unreturned serves on that court. Edge Nadal, in my opinion

ibbi said:
Also, very much agree with what you say about the 2017 final. Federer clearly the superior player...
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I might have to disagree with myself :)

When I re-watched and statt-ted this match, I lent very much in the common, more-aggresive-player is the better player way of seeing things

That's changed - I like to think for the better as far as assessment of playing level goes - and I pay a lot more attention to things that aren't very memorable and so, usually not noticed or remembered (especially if the result goes a particular way)

Looking at these stats, in play -

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Federer 51 (28 FH, 12 BH, 6 FHV, 3 BHV, 2 OH)
Nadal 30 (20 FH, 8 BH, 2 BHV)

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Federer 73
- 48 Unforced (25 FH, 20 BH, 2 BHV, 1 OH)
- 25 Forced (17 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.7

Nadal 50
- 18 Unforced (12 FH, 6 BH)
- 32 Forced (24 FH, 8 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.2

Federer's 101 points, Nadal 103
And Fed getting much more out of the serve shot alone... unreturned rates, Fed 33%, Nadal 26%, Fed with 20 aces, Nadal 4

It looks like play is about even at worst for Nadal. and 18 UEs is a ridiculously low figure over 5 sets... probably even more impressive than 51 winners from Fed

Fed leading by a country mile in all the memorable, eye catching stuff and when that happens plus he wins... its easy to see the match in terms of his being 'by far the better player'

Looking at it more holistically and checking with the numbers, its not at all clear
 
Over the last couple of days I watched the 09 final and the 05 Fed Safin SF in much more detail than I have done for a while

A thing that really stood out for me was the quality of the backhands in 09. Firstly Fed’s. It’s robust, in general he hits hard with it in all directions when he gets a neutral ball, absorbs pace with it well throughout the match. There are parts of the matches where it looks better than 05’s on defence for sure. Part of this may be 05’s court speed rushing the BH more so it looks worse (more loopy and weak) on defence than 09’s. 09’s court played slower**… .but there’s a flipside to this too, which is that 09’s BH would have looked better in attacking on 05’s court too. 05, the BH gets better as the match goes on, and it threads really well low over the net when Safin net rushes

Secondly, Nadal’s BH. Is it his best ever BH performance? Struggling to think of better tbh given the opponent and circumstances. Wasp mentions how good it is in the match report and I can see why - he is absolutely nailing stuff CC (creating ridiculous angles on defence too), and when he goes down the middle he hits even bigger. Safin’s BH was also pounding away in 05 once he got going.

**although I also don’t think it’s the molasses that some have made it out to be. 2012 is molasses, 2009 was… fine
 
jl809 said:
Over the last couple of days I watched the 09 final and the 05 Fed Safin SF in much more detail than I have done for a while

A thing that really stood out for me was the quality of the backhands in 09. Firstly Fed’s. It’s robust, in general he hits hard with it in all directions when he gets a neutral ball, absorbs pace with it well throughout the match. There are parts of the matches where it looks better than 05’s on defence for sure. Part of this may be 05’s court speed rushing the BH more so it looks worse (more loopy and weak) on defence than 09’s. 09’s court played slower**… .but there’s a flipside to this too, which is that 09’s BH would have looked better in attacking on 05’s court too. 05, the BH gets better as the match goes on, and it threads really well low over the net when Safin net rushes

Secondly, Nadal’s BH. Is it his best ever BH performance? Struggling to think of better tbh given the opponent and circumstances. Wasp mentions how good it is in the match report and I can see why - he is absolutely nailing stuff CC (creating ridiculous angles on defence too), and when he goes down the middle he hits even bigger. Safin’s BH was also pounding away in 05 once he got going.

**although I also don’t think it’s the molasses that some have made it out to be. 2012 is molasses, 2009 was… fine
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Agreed.
 
Both Fedal firing so well of the BH wing was a standout in both matches and both at the same time for quite long periods as well.
 
AO 12 SF as well when it came to the rallies but I think Fed's BH return was having difficulties with the Nadal serve so maybe less so.
 
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Hitman said:
Had Federer not been injured, he would have likely beaten Nadal at USO in 2017. Nadal was completely clueless on how to play Federer at that time, on any type of hard court. Federer likely would have done the job in four sets. Nadal 2018 would have a better chance against Federer 2018 at USO IMO.

Djokovic 2020 still beats Federer and Nadal 2017 versions. Remember both Federer and Nadal were pushed to multiple five set matches even before they had one against each other. Djokovic, with the way he plays them, would win both matches in four sets.
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Wawrinka AO 17 vs Djokovic AO 20?
 
jl809 said:
Over the last couple of days I watched the 09 final and the 05 Fed Safin SF in much more detail than I have done for a while

A thing that really stood out for me was the quality of the backhands in 09. Firstly Fed’s. It’s robust, in general he hits hard with it in all directions when he gets a neutral ball, absorbs pace with it well throughout the match. There are parts of the matches where it looks better than 05’s on defence for sure. Part of this may be 05’s court speed rushing the BH more so it looks worse (more loopy and weak) on defence than 09’s. 09’s court played slower**… .but there’s a flipside to this too, which is that 09’s BH would have looked better in attacking on 05’s court too. 05, the BH gets better as the match goes on, and it threads really well low over the net when Safin net rushes

Secondly, Nadal’s BH. Is it his best ever BH performance? Struggling to think of better tbh given the opponent and circumstances. Wasp mentions how good it is in the match report and I can see why - he is absolutely nailing stuff CC (creating ridiculous angles on defence too), and when he goes down the middle he hits even bigger. Safin’s BH was also pounding away in 05 once he got going.

**although I also don’t think it’s the molasses that some have made it out to be. 2012 is molasses, 2009 was… fine
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I'd expect Fed's BH to get better by 2009 after playing Nadal so many times.
 
jl809 said:
Secondly, Nadal’s BH. Is it his best ever BH performance?
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If your looking through old classics, consider the '13 French semi

I don't know how it compares to this '09 match, but impression I had was the '13 match was the hardest BH hitting Nadal's ever done when statting it. And he had good reason to, because Djokovic had come to pester his BH with persistent, powerful FH cc's in a way I don't recall anybody having been able to before


I wouldn't have caught any difference in Fed's BH hitting, across '05 and '09 Aus matches. and would be curious in your take, watching the 2 ('09 Aus final and '13 French semi) one after the other

jl809 said:
Also I feel like these matches deserved their own threads rather than being put together
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I agree, and apologies :)

My learning curve and young days

Stats aren't even 100% accurate. Disgraceful Both years points breakdowns off by about 3
You'll get mistakes like that in my early stuff - 2-3 points off
Chances of getting one that's even 1 point off now and for a very long time since are exactly the same as my making a typo
 
Good reading, I have always felt that the 2017 Final, in terms of quality, was extremely overrated. Neither player was at or near their prime levels and in real-time it felt like a very patchy, cat-and-mouse match as opposed to a gladiator battle.
 
Waspsting said:
Won't comment too strongly on '17 US... comparing something from memory vs comparing something based on the attention I put into matches I stat is like the difference between reading a book for fun and reading it having to write a 10 page college standard essay for

In my opinion, Nadal would have been favourite at US Open against Federer on pure playing ability (he might have been suffering from mental issues)

The big difference in these early '17 hard court matches and their ones in years gone by was Federer's BH. It could and did hurt Nadal in a way it had never done before

But that seems to have been an anomaly, not a permanent, long term change in his game. It was gone by Wimbledon, where he played tremendously and injury free

Though not being as quick around the court, Nadal re-claimed his standing as the most consistent (i.e. least unforced error-prone) player in the world by the US Open

On that slow US Open court, i'd favour him to outlast Federer more than Federer to blow him away, especially if he has a safe spot to go to

You hear a lot about Nadal breaking down Federer's BH in general, and while that's obviously true, it's not the only thing that was going on. If rallies are getting a bit livelier than Nadal would like, he could always find Fed's BH... and put a stopper on any momentum Fed built. Not win the point with the shot, but reset it so to speak back to situation that's likely to end with an error (and Nadal's always favourite to come out ahead on those). Fed's BH had reverted to being a safe place to go to by Fall '17 and it seems to have done so independent of fitness

And its unlikely Fed could get a big bunch of unreturned serves on that court. Edge Nadal, in my opinion



I might have to disagree with myself :)

When I re-watched and statt-ted this match, I lent very much in the common, more-aggresive-player is the better player way of seeing things

That's changed - I like to think for the better as far as assessment of playing level goes - and I pay a lot more attention to things that aren't very memorable and so, usually not noticed or remembered (especially if the result goes a particular way)

Looking at these stats, in play -

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Federer 51 (28 FH, 12 BH, 6 FHV, 3 BHV, 2 OH)
Nadal 30 (20 FH, 8 BH, 2 BHV)

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Federer 73
- 48 Unforced (25 FH, 20 BH, 2 BHV, 1 OH)
- 25 Forced (17 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.7

Nadal 50
- 18 Unforced (12 FH, 6 BH)
- 32 Forced (24 FH, 8 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.2

Federer's 101 points, Nadal 103
And Fed getting much more out of the serve shot alone... unreturned rates, Fed 33%, Nadal 26%, Fed with 20 aces, Nadal 4

It looks like play is about even at worst for Nadal. and 18 UEs is a ridiculously low figure over 5 sets... probably even more impressive than 51 winners from Fed

Fed leading by a country mile in all the memorable, eye catching stuff and when that happens plus he wins... its easy to see the match in terms of his being 'by far the better player'

Looking at it more holistically and checking with the numbers, its not at all clear
Click to expand...
That was my impression watching the match live. Other than the (very relevant) serve freebies it was a very close match until the 5th.
 
Much agreed with the analysis'. Nadal had declined more so than Fed between the two matches, and his forehand still hadn't recovered until RG IIRC, but continued improving into 2018. 2018 clay season Rafa is when he truly, without a doubt, regained his devastating forehand.
 
ADuck said:
Much agreed with the analysis'. Nadal had declined more so than Fed between the two matches, and his forehand still hadn't recovered until RG IIRC, but continued improving into 2018. 2018 clay season Rafa is when he truly, without a doubt, regained his devastating forehand.
Click to expand...
It's honestly shocking Rafa even did as well as he did at AO2017 given how absolute CRAP he was from mid 2014-the end of 2016.
 
ADuck said:
Much agreed with the analysis'. Nadal had declined more so than Fed between the two matches, and his forehand still hadn't recovered until RG IIRC, but continued improving into 2018. 2018 clay season Rafa is when he truly, without a doubt, regained his devastating forehand.
Click to expand...
Federer's FH was rushing Nadal a lot. Seems weird to say but it seemed Nadal needed more winners to edge it that day.
 
Last edited:
aldeayeah said:
2017 RG was not good enough for you? o_O
Click to expand...
If we're talking just the FH and I'm being brutally honest then yeah. 2017 in general, it was definitely improved from 2015-2016, but he was still hitting shots that lacked depth and penetration from certain positions of the court, and not punishing balls as well as he could have. Just a few bad characteristics hanging around from those years that he didn't fully iron out until 2018 imo.
 
MichaelNadal said:
It's honestly shocking Rafa even did as well as he did at AO2017 given how absolute CRAP he was from mid 2014-the end of 2016.
Click to expand...
I really think the main reason he got through to the final was that unlike 2015-2016 HC slams where he'd have an early round 5-set match and lose it, this time he won it (vs Zverev 3rd round) and that gave him the boost of confidence necessary to reach the final. To my eye it wasn't like he had suddenly transformed into a different player from 2015-2016, he had improved some but he still had a ways to go. So no shame in losing to Fed there, I even predicted Fed would win that one.
 
In 2018 Nadal really flattened out the BH from what I remember. Wasn't attacking enough at the HC slams on the FH side so this lead to him scrambling a lot before it was too much for his body in both HC slams that year but obviously worked on clay and grass very well.
 
ADuck said:
If we're talking just the FH and I'm being brutally honest then yeah. 2017 in general, it was definitely improved from 2015-2016, but he was still hitting shots that lacked depth and penetration from certain positions of the court, and not punishing balls as well as he could have. Just a few bad characteristics hanging around from those years that he didn't fully iron out until 2018 imo.
Click to expand...
I even think in RG 17 Nadal didn't even have to use his max gear till the final on the FH but he was devastating in the final especially after the first few games.
 
ADuck said:
I really think the main reason he got through to the final was that unlike 2015-2016 HC slams where he'd have an early round 5-set match and lose it, this time he won it (vs Zverev 3rd round) and that gave him the boost of confidence necessary to reach the final. To my eye it wasn't like he had suddenly transformed into a different player from 2015-2016, he had improved some but he still had a ways to go. So no shame in losing to Fed there, I even predicted Fed would win that one.
Click to expand...
Yep, he said later on that the Zverev match gave him his confidence back.
 
So summing up, we have a very slow Nadal with a rusty forehand and an ancient Fed that missed most of 2016 winning all 6 slams from 2017 through the first half of 2018.

If this is the case, then I don’t want to hear about Djoker vulturing slams. Quite honestly, each one during the homogenized era(since 2001) drastically inflated his titles compared to the players from the more polarized and specialist eras. And all 3 of us camps have been incredibly spoiled because of it.

I’m happy that my favorite benefited from modern medicine, courts, training, and technology to somehow win 20 slams and 103 titles altogether. Those are ridiculous totals; something that he wouldn’t have come remotely close to in the 1980s. And I’m not bitter that another guy shattered his records. He did it fair and square. Lendl passes McEnroe just like Djoker passed Fed. That’s fine. Claiming otherwise just doesn’t make sense to me.
 
Pheasant said:
So summing up, we have a very slow Nadal with a rusty forehand and an ancient Fed that missed most of 2016 winning all 6 slams from 2017 through the first half of 2018.

If this is the case, then I don’t want to hear about Djoker vulturing slams. Quite honestly, each one during the homogenized era(since 2001) drastically inflated his titles compared to the players from the more polarized and specialist eras. And all 3 of us camps have been incredibly spoiled because of it.

I’m happy that my favorite benefited from modern medicine, courts, training, and technology to somehow win 20 slams and 103 titles altogether. Those are ridiculous totals; something that he wouldn’t have come remotely close to in the 1980s. And I’m not bitter that another guy shattered his records. He did it fair and square. Lendl passes McEnroe just like Djoker passed Fed. That’s fine. Claiming otherwise just doesn’t make sense to me.
Click to expand...
Weak era was coming up from 2017 post AO to 2018 RG.

2018 Wimby
2019 RG
2019 Wimby
2020 AO
2021 AO
2021 rg
2022 RG
2023 Wimby
2023 USO
2024 AO

These are not weak slams at all. Weak era came and gone.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
Weak era was coming up from 2017 post AO to 2018 RG.

2018 Wimby
2019 RG
2019 Wimby
2020 AO
2021 AO
2021 rg
2022 RG
2023 Wimby
2023 USO
2024 AO

These are not weak slams at all. Weak era cam
Click to expand...
No version of Novak is beating 2017 Nadal at RG. Ralph was at his peak there (losing 0 sets and destroying with multiple bagels his opponents), and he possesses the best peak ever at RG. So that ain't weak.

Djokovic winning RG 2016 without facing Rafa is weak by your logic (not facing the best player at a Slam at his best makes a Slam win weak).
 
nolefam_2024 said:
Weak era was coming up from 2017 post AO to 2018 RG.

2018 Wimby
2019 RG
2019 Wimby
2020 AO
2021 AO
2021 rg
2022 RG
2023 Wimby
2023 USO
2024 AO

These are not weak slams at all. Weak era came and gone.
Click to expand...
I’m not into the weak era theory when comparing the Big 3, since they all basically played in the same damn era. That just doesn’t make sense to me. All 3 benefitted from the modern conditions. Djoker won it fair and square. That episode is over. I moved from since he bagged slam title #19. That gave him the double career slam, most weeks at #1, the doubles boxed set of Masters, the most big titles. It was over in 2021 IMHO. Djoker clinched it . I posted on raising the white flag immediately after that tourney. And looking back, he put up an epic tournament. I’ve probably underrated that tournament drastically since then.
 
Sport said:
No version of Novak is beating 2017 Nadal at RG. Ralph was at his peak there (losing 0 sets and destroying with multiple bagels his opponents), and he possesses the best peak ever at RG. So that ain't weak.

Djokovic winning RG 2016 without facing Rafa is weak by your logic (not facing the best player at a Slam at his best makes a Slam win weak).
Click to expand...
Good you want to add RG 2017 go ahead. Then it would just make this era even stronger. I wouldn't add it, I see the last 3 rounds really bad with Murray finishing his career as top player there, Djokovic body finally breaking down and Federer, leader of the race to London not even opting in to play.
 
MichaelNadal said:
It's honestly shocking Rafa even did as well as he did at AO2017 given how absolute CRAP he was from mid 2014-the end of 2016.
Click to expand...

Nobody expected either Federer or Nadal in the final, it was a VERY surprising final, and their first final since RG 2011. Given Djokovic was also not doing so well in the second half of 2016, it's the only time we've had two consecutive non-Big 3 slam winners IIRC (right before that event).
 
Waspsting said:
If your looking through old classics, consider the '13 French semi

I don't know how it compares to this '09 match, but impression I had was the '13 match was the hardest BH hitting Nadal's ever done when statting it. And he had good reason to, because Djokovic had come to pester his BH with persistent, powerful FH cc's in a way I don't recall anybody having been able to before


I wouldn't have caught any difference in Fed's BH hitting, across '05 and '09 Aus matches. and would be curious in your take, watching the 2 ('09 Aus final and '13 French semi) one after the other


I agree, and apologies :)

My learning curve and young days

Stats aren't even 100% accurate. Disgraceful Both years points breakdowns off by about 3
You'll get mistakes like that in my early stuff - 2-3 points off
Chances of getting one that's even 1 point off now and for a very long time since are exactly the same as my making a typo
Click to expand...
Ooooh, will do. I have always thought about that match in terms of the FH, especially set 5, so will be good to rewatch with the specific perspective.

And certainly don’t apologise for anything to do with these reports, they’re a fantastic gift for all of us, whatever way you choose to give them :)
 
weakera said:
I would put the 2020 and 2008 Roland Garros Finals in that conversation. He was impregnable on the backhand side in both matches.
Click to expand...

Thing is, impregnable BH showings are common for him, so I would look to find something particularly punishing or hard-hitting
One impreganable I remember is '06 Wimby vs Agassi

He has 2 UEs in the whole match (and 1 of them is a bad call). Agassi was very slow by then, but he could still spank a FH cc

But I agree about '20 French final in particular. Some excellent, wide angled FH cc'ng from Djoko there. Better than the stuff he dished out following year that proved effective. And Nadal misses next to nothing. balls were so wide he was forced to slice much of the time, even then, impregnable as you said

ADuck said:
If we're talking just the FH and I'm being brutally honest then yeah. 2017 in general, it was definitely improved from 2015-2016, but he was still hitting shots that lacked depth and penetration from certain positions of the court, and not punishing balls as well as he could have. Just a few bad characteristics hanging around from those years that he didn't fully iron out until 2018 imo.
Click to expand...

There is a swings & roundabouts thing to it. He wasn't playing a FH for offence/BH steady game as he had in previous years. He was stepping in and commanding play with the BH, taking pressure of the FH to do all the damage

Along with that, was keeping central court position, not leaning over in deuce court looking for FHs whenever possible

ADuck said:
I really think the main reason he got through to the final was that unlike 2015-2016 HC slams where he'd have an early round 5-set match and lose it, this time he won it (vs Zverev 3rd round) and that gave him the boost of confidence necessary to reach the final. To my eye it wasn't like he had suddenly transformed into a different player from 2015-2016, he had improved some but he still had a ways to go. So no shame in losing to Fed there, I even predicted Fed would win that one.
Click to expand...

I wasn't too impressed with him in Aus or the Sunshine Double

What makes me wonder is Federer's post-match comments in Miami. He said something like "... I'm sure you'll tear it up on clay"
And he did. Unlike 2015-16
Was Fed just giving a throwaway compliment? Or did he identify something in how well Nadal was playing?

18 UEs in 5 sets... that is pretty amazing, and sounds like a good place to be, going into clay


jl809 said:
Ooooh, will do. I have always thought about that match in terms of the FH, especially set 5, so will be good to rewatch with the specific perspective.

And certainly don’t apologise for anything to do with these reports, they’re a fantastic gift for all of us, whatever way you choose to give them :)
Click to expand...

K, let me know what you find

I've picked the '13 match specifically for how hard Nadal's hitting the ball - not the shot-making, not the consistency, not the shot tolerance - just the ball striking

If you want to add one more layer, there's always '22 French final

BH - 15 winners, 4 UEs, 6 FEs
(FH had 14, 10 and 6 to give perspective)

Statistically (and otherwise), that's probably the best yield I've come across for a baseline match
 
2009: Poor serving and 5th set probably leaves it out of all-time great quality matches, but as far as highlight reels go? I don't think there's a better match than this. First set alone had highlights worthy of an entire tournament, and the next three sets didn't really let up. Complete baseline battle, lots of all-court highlights with soft touch, volleys, great slices, power, offense, and defense. Probably Nadal's finest backhand performance. And who wants to watch elite serving anyways??

Note: Did Federer really choke 2009 AO as bad as people say he did? I mean, I feel like he did quite well to hang with Nadal and come out of 4 sets tied 2-2 with his serve not firing. Against this level of speed, consistency, backhand power, usual forehand dominance, you'd probably expect Federer serving 54% to lose in 3/4 sets. Bad 5th set yes, but he was due for one. Nadal simply was the better baseliner at the time. As for the whole narrative of Nadal being tired after the Verdasco match, he obviously was according to his own comments and Toni's, but on the court? It hardly showed besides late third set. And there, Nadal was very solid on the break points with first-strike tennis. Tiebreak was well-played too.

I noticed that one iconic third set tiebreak point (5-3) where Nadal hits an approach crosscourt from an awkward position, then sprints to cover the down-the-line BH and hits a perfect drop volley. I feel like it was kinda foreshadowed by Federer burning him a few times on the crosscourt approach. Tennis 101 is that approaching crosscourt is dangerous because you leave the down the line pass wide open, and that still applies even when you're a lefty going to the weaker wing. Fed burned him a couple times so this time Rafa full-sprinted to cover it and managed to win a pivotal point off it.

2017: Shocked by how slow Nadal in particular looked. Honestly I could be imagining it but I feel like Nadal's movement was better in 2018/2019... maybe the fast court makes him look slower too. But a higher quality match than I remember to be honest. Great aggressive play and Nadal with very low unforced error counts really could've stolen it. Federer's first-strike offense and early backhand was some of the most skilled stuff you'll see to win a tournament with diminished athleticism. Fun 5th set battle. I still think Nadal's semi vs Dimitrov was a bit better though.
 
Last edited:
7thKingSlam said:
2009: Poor serving and 5th set probably leaves it out of all-time great quality matches, but as far as highlight reels go? I don't think there's a better match than this. First set alone had highlights worthy of an entire tournament, and the next three sets didn't really let up. Complete baseline battle, lots of all-court highlights with soft touch, volleys, great slices, power, offense, and defense. Probably Nadal's finest backhand performance. And who wants to watch elite serving anyways??

Note: Did Federer really choke 2009 AO as bad as people say he did? I mean, I feel like he did quite well to hang with Nadal and come out of 4 sets tied 2-2 with his serve not firing. Against this level of speed, consistency, backhand power, usual forehand dominance, you'd probably expect Federer serving 54% to lose in 3/4 sets. Bad 5th set yes, but he was due for one. Nadal simply was the better baseliner at the time. As for the whole narrative of Nadal being tired after the Verdasco match, he obviously was according to his own comments and Toni's, but on the court? It hardly showed besides late third set. And there, Nadal was very solid on the break points with first-strike tennis. Tiebreak was well-played too.

I noticed that one iconic third set tiebreak point (5-3) where Nadal hits an approach crosscourt from an awkward position, then sprints to cover the down-the-line BH and hits a perfect drop volley. I feel like it was kinda foreshadowed by Federer burning him a few times on the crosscourt approach. Tennis 101 is that approaching crosscourt is dangerous because you leave the down the line pass wide open, and that still applies even when you're a lefty going to the weaker wing. Fed burned him a couple times so this time Rafa full-sprinted to cover it and managed to win a pivotal point off it.

2017: Shocked by how slow Nadal in particular looked. Honestly I could be imagining it but I feel like Nadal's movement was better in 2018/2019... maybe the fast court makes him look slower too. But a higher quality match than I remember to be honest. Great aggressive play and Nadal with very low unforced error counts really could've stolen it. Federer's first-strike offense and early backhand was some of the most skilled stuff you'll see to win a tournament with diminished athleticism. Fun 5th set battle. I still think Nadal's semi vs Dimitrov was a bit better though.
Click to expand...

When I think 'choke', I think of playing a short spell of bad play that's substantially worse than what player was playing around the period in question

From memory, Fed played the whole 5th set like crap? - I think that's just playing badly. Wouldn't argue with calling it a choke

Some similarites in '14 Wimby final. Fed played a (for him) passive, solid game to reach decider. In which he tried to be up the aggro to his norm and faltered some so doing

Might have to re-watch these matches about Nadal's movements. I remember how it struck me, but now, it occurs to me there's a difference between 'slow by Nadal's 2009 standard' and 'slow in general'

There are 10 players in history who wouldn't look slow by Nadal's 2009 standard, but its been a long while since i've watched these matches
 
7thKingSlam said:
2009: Poor serving and 5th set probably leaves it out of all-time great quality matches, but as far as highlight reels go? I don't think there's a better match than this. First set alone had highlights worthy of an entire tournament, and the next three sets didn't really let up. Complete baseline battle, lots of all-court highlights with soft touch, volleys, great slices, power, offense, and defense. Probably Nadal's finest backhand performance. And who wants to watch elite serving anyways??

Note: Did Federer really choke 2009 AO as bad as people say he did? I mean, I feel like he did quite well to hang with Nadal and come out of 4 sets tied 2-2 with his serve not firing. Against this level of speed, consistency, backhand power, usual forehand dominance, you'd probably expect Federer serving 54% to lose in 3/4 sets. Bad 5th set yes, but he was due for one. Nadal simply was the better baseliner at the time. As for the whole narrative of Nadal being tired after the Verdasco match, he obviously was according to his own comments and Toni's, but on the court? It hardly showed besides late third set. And there, Nadal was very solid on the break points with first-strike tennis. Tiebreak was well-played too.

I noticed that one iconic third set tiebreak point (5-3) where Nadal hits an approach crosscourt from an awkward position, then sprints to cover the down-the-line BH and hits a perfect drop volley. I feel like it was kinda foreshadowed by Federer burning him a few times on the crosscourt approach. Tennis 101 is that approaching crosscourt is dangerous because you leave the down the line pass wide open, and that still applies even when you're a lefty going to the weaker wing. Fed burned him a couple times so this time Rafa full-sprinted to cover it and managed to win a pivotal point off it.

2017: Shocked by how slow Nadal in particular looked. Honestly I could be imagining it but I feel like Nadal's movement was better in 2018/2019... maybe the fast court makes him look slower too. But a higher quality match than I remember to be honest. Great aggressive play and Nadal with very low unforced error counts really could've stolen it. Federer's first-strike offense and early backhand was some of the most skilled stuff you'll see to win a tournament with diminished athleticism. Fun 5th set battle. I still think Nadal's semi vs Dimitrov was a bit better though.
Click to expand...
Fed taking the ball so early left Nadal looking flat footed in 2017, much more so that anyone he played in 2018 or 2019 (outside of Djokovic who did make Nadal looks very slow).
 
Waspsting said:
When I think 'choke', I think of playing a short spell of bad play that's substantially worse than what player was playing around the period in question

From memory, Fed played the whole 5th set like crap? - I think that's just playing badly. Wouldn't argue with calling it a choke

Some similarites in '14 Wimby final. Fed played a (for him) passive, solid game to reach decider. In which he tried to be up the aggro to his norm and faltered some so doing

Might have to re-watch these matches about Nadal's movements. I remember how it struck me, but now, it occurs to me there's a difference between 'slow by Nadal's 2009 standard' and 'slow in general'

There are 10 players in history who wouldn't look slow by Nadal's 2009 standard, but its been a long while since i've watched these matches
Click to expand...
You have a point there. I think seeing Nadal showing visible fatigue in the third set, Federer started defending harder and playing a little more passively in the late third and whole 4th set, so maybe trying to find his range again threw him off. I do just wonder if he was due for a bad set here though. I mean, he couldn't hang with that level of baseline quality forever with his serve not really firing. Forcing a 5th set in the first place was pretty impressive. Still, the fact that the slump was in the 5th set and the amount of first-ball errors does not reflect well on him. He also was not threatening on Nadal's service games, showing the errors weren't just on his own serve.

NatF said:
Fed taking the ball so early left Nadal looking flat footed in 2017, much more so that anyone he played in 2018 or 2019 (outside of Djokovic who did make Nadal looks very slow).
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'll try my best to compare Nadal's movement there to 2018/19 to give it a good measurement. Then again, some of his high profile hard court 2018/19 matches were against guys like Thiem/Medvedev, who undoubtedly gave him a workout, but are also somewhat predictable in their baseline patterns. Also, much slower courts. 2017 AO played disproportionately fast for grand slams in that period. And I'm thinking that might be the main reason.

I think you have a good point that Federer was wrong-footing Nadal and taking the ball very early. I also felt he was slow vs Dimitrov though, and I think court surface may be the bigger factor, or perhaps his endurance was just not up to par. After all, Nadal was coming off an injury too, and hadn't gone deeper than QFs at a slam since 2014 RG not to mention hadn't made a QF since 2015 RG. Could be a lot of different factors.
 
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