Duel Match Stats/Reports - Alcaraz vs Medvedev, Indian Wells finals, 2023 & 2024

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Hall of Fame
Carlos Alcaraz beat Daniil Medvedev 6-3, 6-2 in the Indian Wells final, 2023 on hard court

It was both players first final at the event. Medvedev would win the title in Miami shortly after

Alcaraz won 59 points, Medvedev 38

Serve Stats
Alcaraz...
- 1st serve percentage (37/49) 76%
- 1st serve points won (30/37) 81%
- 2nd serve points won (7/12) 58%
- Aces 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (12/49) 24%

Medvedev...
- 1st serve percentage (31/48) 65%
- 1st serve points won (19/31) 61%
- 2nd serve points won (7/17) 41%
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (7/48) 15%

Serve Pattern
Alcaraz served...
- to FH 43%
- to BH 51%
- to Body 6%

Medvedev served...
- to FH 63%
- to BH 37%

Return Stats
Alcaraz made...
- 39 (25 FH, 14 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 7 Errors, comprising...
- 4 Unforced (2 FH, 2 BH)
- 3 Forced (2 FH, 1 BH)
- Return Rate (39/46) 85%

Medvedev made...
- 37 (15 FH, 22 BH), including 1 runaround BH
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (3 FH, 2 BH)
- 6 Forced (4 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (37/49) 76%

Break Points
Alcaraz 3/3
Medvedev 0

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Alcaraz 17 (9 FH, 2 BH, 4 FHV, 2 BHV)
Medvedev 5 (3 FH, 1 BH, 1 OH)

Alcaraz' FHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 1 cc/inside-in, 1 inside-out, 5 drop shots
- BHs - 1 cc, 1 inside-in return

- 4 from serve-volley points (2 FHV, 2 BHV), all first volleys

- 1 other FHV was a non-net, swining longline shot

Medvedev's FHs - 1 cc, 1 inside-out, 1 inside-in
- BH - 1 running-down-drop-shot drop shot at net

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Alcaraz 26
- 20 Unforced (14 FH, 6 BH)
- 6 Forced (3 FH, 2 BH, 1 FHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 49

Medvedev 28
- 20 Unforced (11 FH, 7 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 8 Forced (7 FH, 1 BH)... with 1 FH at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Alcaraz was...
- 10/12 (83%) at with, including...
- 9/10 (90%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves

Medvedev was 6/11 (55%) at net, with...
- 0/1 forced back

Match Report
Alcaraz’ returning and exploitation of his opponents backward court position is particularly good in this one sided match. Medvedev has a bad day, with his own return being a bit off, as well as shot resistance. Court is normal, quicker than the venue’s norm and both players able to trouble the other with well hit, slightly wide shots

Alcs breaks first chance in both sets and doesn’t face break point himself. Stats have come out nicely in illuminating action

Freebies - Alcs 24%, Med 15%
Med with 0 aces (Alcs has 1). According to commentary, this is the first time in 3 years that Med has gone a match without an ace. He serves his usual big at 65% in count. Generally, Alcs is as good as they come in his movement and anticipation on the return - and both are in evidence in keeping the fat serving Med with such a low yield of freebies

Where he can be loose is in missing regulation returns. Not here. Just 7 return errors. Regularly takes second returns early and smacks them deep, with fair few right back to the baseline. Pick of ‘em is a BH inside-in winner, his favourite, aggressive return

Med’s general strength on the return is iron consistency, at cost of court position. Here, the cost is there, the benefits not what he would have liked

5 UEs, 6 FEs on return by Med, which speaks to quality of both Alcs’ serve and Med’s return. From the extreme backward position Med takes on the return, its usually case that he has time to be in perfect position for almost everything. In stats terms, if he misses a return, it’ll be marked UE, not FE. Plus, he usually makes whatever is strong (some combo of wide and powerful, depth isn’t a factor from where he’s standing) enough to potentially be marked FE anyway

For Alcs to force 6 return errors says something good about his serve. And Med with the 5 UEs, the opposite for this return

Gist - large lead in serve-return complex for Alcs - serving particularly well of force and direction, with Med a little off in his returning. And Med serving his usual, but Alcs not only typically fleet in of movement, but extra consistent and damaging with his returns

Then they rally. With Med miles behind the baseline to start his return points, Alcs either in standard position or even on baseline. Advantage Alcs right there and -

Winners - Alcs 17, Med 5
Errors Forced - Alcs 8, Med 6
UEs - both 20

Errors and they’re breakdown are virtually same (the UEs so being is a win for Alcs), so winners is the big difference. That difference is due to Alcs exploiting Med’s court position, not overpowering him

5 of Alcs winners are drop shots. 4/5 are third balls, with Med rubbing elbows with the line judges
4 are from serve-volley points, all of them first volleys. Alcs wins 9/10 serve-volleying. He's only at net twice other than serve-volleys (once drop shot related)

Sans those 9, he’s still leading winners 8-5, which is good to be going on with his lead in freebies. That lot of 9 is what turns ‘good to be going on’ into ‘walk-in-the-park’ and one-sided - and they’re all about taking advantage of where Med plays from

Perfect drop shots from Alcs. He’s in a class of his own on them. Med’s footspeed his fine, but not up to reaching such shots from where he’s chosen to be

Serve-volleying, he’s met with surprisingly good returns from Med, who can see the play and react accordingly, but from as far back as he is, still a task to get a troubling return off. He’s able to hit such returns harder, but Alcs is neatly controlled in dealing with the volley. All his 4 winners are first volleys. Not difficult because Med’s not in the picture, but not easy gimmes either due to strength of the returns. Wouldn’t be a surprise to see many players of this period make a mess of such volleys, so credit Alcs for execution here

Baseline rallies are otherwise competitive. Alcs has slightly more powerful FH but not to overpowering Med’s extent. It’s the drop shots that give him big lead there

FH UEs - Alcs 14, Med 11
Non-drop shot FH winners - Alcs 4, Med 3 (with 1 of Alcs’ being a pass)

Things are evenly matched on the BH too. Alcs’ hitting is excellent, enough to rush and trouble the rock Med, but Med’s upto handling it. His ability to direct BHs where he wants is curbed a bit but does respond by upping his own hitting and not being pushed around

BH UEs - Alcs 6, Med 7
BH winners - Als 2, Med 1 (Alcs has a return, Med’s is a running-down-drop-shot shot)

If Alcs has power advantage, its not by much. But remaining as steady as Med is a relative win for him - credit to him for that, not discredit to Med. Something Alcs does well is unleash extra powerfully off a random ball. Does it off both sides and well enough to ruffle Med, if not win the point

And all the damage he does serve-volleying and with perfect drop shots raising him well above

Match Progression
Alcs breaks and is 3-0 up at the first sit-down. A Return error drawing serve-volley in each of his holds, and the break is a particularly strong one - beginning with a FH inside-out winner and ending with a particularly good BH cc one from routine position

Med’s taken to 10 points game after too, but gets himself on the board without facing break point in error dominated game. Signs not good for Med - he’s passed first time he comes to net, is forced into error by a big FH cc, misses his own drop shot attempt and can draw just 1 return error (he makes 7/10 first serves), but ekes out UEs from the back

Routine holds from thereon, with both players commanding their service games aggressively. Alcs serves out to 15 with 3 net points - the last 2 serve-volleys

Horrendous game from Med to be broken to love to start the second set - a ground UE of either side sandwiching an easy BHV miss to go down 0-40, and a double fault to follow. Alcs with some excellent serves to consolidate to love - an ace and forcing 2 return errors

Great returns from Alcs secures him another break in 8 point game for 3-0. Starts game with winning return to baseline, ends game with winning wide return, and smacks a BH inside-in return winner just before that. In moving to 0-30, Alcs wins 12 points in a row starting from previous set

2 breaks to the good leaves Alcs room to play. He has 4 FH winners in holding for 5-1 - the last 3 drop shots in succesion, the last 2 of them third balls, though the one before is even better shot

Med’s finally able to to run down a drop shot to hit a drop shot winner of his own in following game. And as Alcs serves for match, he’s able to reach another one and end up winning the point with an OH winner with both players at net. Takes Alcs to deuce for only time in the match, but Alcs finishes up with a nice, stretch FHV winner serve-volleying to raise his second match point, on which Med misses a regulation return

Summing up, good showing from Alcaraz, blending solid hitting off both wings with beautiful touch on the drop shot. And more importantly still, serving very well in his placement and still more, returning superbly (both in moving to meet the ball and striking it damagingly)

Medvedev is a little off in his returning consistency and his habit of starting points from such a backward position gets ruthlessly exposed by Alcaraz’s serve-volleys and drop shots
 
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Medvedev has a bad day, with his own return being a bit off, as well as shot resistance.
at that point, he'd been playing 5 weeks straight, having won titles in Rotterdam, Doha, and Dubai, including a win over Djokovic that was one of Djokovic's three hard court losses for the year. not surprising he'd have a letdown at this point, especially considering some shaky play earlier in the tournament
Court is normal, quicker than the venue’s norm
was surprised by this, considering:
Perfect drop shots from Alcs. He’s in a class of his own on them. Med’s footspeed his fine, but not up to reaching such shots from where he’s chosen to be
 
at that point, he'd been playing 5 weeks straight, having won titles in Rotterdam, Doha, and Dubai, including a win over Djokovic that was one of Djokovic's three hard court losses for the year. not surprising he'd have a letdown at this point, especially considering some shaky play earlier in the tournament

was surprised by this, considering:


norm at Indian Wells would be strong wide shots, even running ones, being quite comfortable to handle
Here, it seems to me that both players are able to trouble the other with slightly wide hit shots

Med's unreturned rate is supporting slow court. Alcs' isn't - and more than the rate itself, he's got Med hopping and stretching to return, no easy feat given where Med's standing (the moon)

Commentators talk about the court and say its slow, but note that it varies considerably by time of day (final being played when its slower, I think), with one specifically asking the other how much difference does time of day make, and the answer is something like 'considerable' or 'substantial' (don't remember the exact word)

I've played on a lot of different courts at all hours of the day and night and have never been struck by pace difference across times, so have always thought that type of assessment is splitting hairs (granted, I barely notice any of that stuff when playing)
 
I've played on a lot of different courts at all hours of the day and night and have never been struck by pace difference across times, so have always thought that type of assessment is splitting hairs (granted, I barely notice any of that stuff when playing)
my feeling is that time of day/temperature matters A Lot for the bounce height and that impacts perception of pace
 
Alcaraz beat Medvedev 7-6(5), 6-1 in the Indian Wells final, 2024 on hard court

Alcaraz beat new Australian Open champion Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev among others en route the title. Medvedev had recently been runner-up at the Australian Open

Alcaraz won 80 points, Medvedev 61

Serve Stats
Alcaraz...
- 1st serve percentage (40/62) 65%
- 1st serve points won (30/40) 75%
- 2nd serve points won (15/22) 68%
- Aces 3, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (24/62) 39%

Medvedev...
- 1st serve percentage (48/79) 61%
- 1st serve points won (30/48) 63%
- 2nd serve points won (14/31) 45%
- Aces 3, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (19/79) 24%

Serve Pattern
Alcaraz served...
- to FH 43%
- to BH 52%
- to Body 5%

Medvedev served...
- to FH 50%
- to BH 42%
- to Body 8%

Return Stats
Alcaraz made...
- 57 (35 FH, 22 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 3 return-approaches
- 3 Winners (3 FH)
- 15 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (4 FH, 6 BH), including 1 return-approach attempt
- 5 Forced (1 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (57/76) 75%

Medvedev made...
- 37 (13 FH, 24 BH)
- Winners (1 FH)
- 20 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (5 FH, 3 BH)
- 12 Forced (6 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (37/61) 61%

Break Points
Alcaraz 3/10 (5 games)
Medvedev 1/2 (1 game)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Alcaraz 20 (12 FH, 2 BH, 4 FHV, 2 OH)
Medvedev 8 (4 FH, 1 BH, 1 FHV, 2 OH)

Alcaraz' FHs - 6 cc (2 returns - 1 possibly not clean, 3 passes), 2 dtl (1 pass), 2 inside-out, 1 inside-in return
- BHs - 2 dtl (1 pass)

- 2 from serve-volley points (2 FHV), both first volleys
- 1 from a return-approach point (1 FH), a cc at net

Medvedev's FHs - 2 cc (1 return pass), 2 inside-out (1 pass)
- BH - 1 cc at net

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Alcaraz 33
- 19 Unforced (8 FH, 9 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 14 Forced (5 FH, 8 BH, 1 BHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.9

Medvedev 33
- 20 Unforced (11 FH, 9 BH)
- 13 Forced (8 FH, 4 BH, 1 BHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.5

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Alcaraz was...
- 16/22 (73%) at with, including...
- 8/11 (73%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 2/3 (67%) return-approaching
- 1/2 forced back

Medvedev was...
- 13/20 (65%) at with, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve

Match Report
Alcaraz is strong, Medvedev is weak, result is more due to the latter, Alcaraz wins even more easily than scoreline suggests - QED. Court is similar to previous year, but lower bouncing

7-6(5) looks competitive. It’s less so than you might think
Upto breaking for 2-0 lead is the extent Med leads (as in, has better of) play. His consolidation takes 14 points, during which he has to save 3 break points
On top of Alcs breaking back in due time, almost every Med service game is a tussle. While Alcs cruises on serve

Going into ‘breaker, Alcs’ served 35 points or 5.83 per game. Med 52 or 8.67
Alcs is always ahead in the ‘breaker after taking the first point and moving to 3-0. Wins it despite missing all 6 first serves
6-1 second set is exactly what it looks like

Alcs winning 56.7% of the points while serving 44.0% of them. In first set, he wins 52.5% serving 41.4% of them - and with 6-1 scoreline, not need to look to closely at the second

After first 2 games, its Alcs winning 59.8% of points, serving 40.9%
To compare, previous year, match long it was 60.8% serving 50.5%

20 winners, 19 UEs from Alcs, to say nothing of the 13 errors he forces. Along with large 39% unreturned. Very good stuff - a little flatteringly so
8 winners, 20 UEs, forcing 14 errors from Med. Not good and even worse than it looks because he both serves and returns weakly/poorly

The returning makes some sense. He’s learnt from previous year and other experiences about the dangers of standing so far back and plays around with his position. By normal standard, he’s well behind baseline. By his standard, taking them ‘early’, about 4-5 paces behind baseline on average (he switches around from rarely on the baseline to occasionally in his usual, full-back position)

You can see why he returns from so far back usually. He’s no good at returning from normal position and makes hash of returns, without returning with any heat when he can make the second shot

Some solidly good serving from Alcs, but 39% freebies + commanding third ball situations is a big, fat fail for Med’s returning

Then there’s his serve. This is the gentlest serving I’ve seen from the usually big serving Med. You’d think he was the small one and Alcs the tree
Both players have 3 aces, 1 service winner - Alcs from 40 first serves, Med 48

Just 24% unreturneds for Med and 10/15 of Alcs’ return errors have been marked UEs. He’s typically quick in moving for returns, but doesn’t have to hop and skip to reach them much. Med mostly serving in swing zone or coverable by a step. Not even particularly powerfull

Alcs too plays around with his return position and for him, that’s less understandable. Rarely, he returns from very far back and that’s when he’s at his most ineffective (also, no real reason for him to return from there as he handles himself from normal or even early position just fine). Occasionally, he’s on the baseline, ready to take a further step in against second serves

3 return winners from Alcs and 3 return-approaches - powerful, wide-ish shots, not chips. Good aggressive returning against second and occasionally even first serves - and not much bother returning the normal stuff (which admittedly, is well down of force from Med’s norm)

Gist - unreturends Alcs 39%, Med 24%, with Alcs often returning with heat, Med almost never - big, big advantage Alcs - and then they rally
 
Winners - Alcs 20, Med 8
Errors forced - Alcs 13, Med 14
UEs - Alcs 19, Med 20

… virtually same errors and their breakdown, Alcs with big advantage in winners

Unusual or different aspects of play is Med playing a lot of FH dtl and Alcs slicing (amidst BH cc rallies, not against the FH dtl’s) regularly

FH dtl seems to be about staying way from Alcs’ FH. Its usually a mildly attacking show at most, almost neutral. Certainly not potential winner. Not a bad idea to avoid Alc’s FH, given large power advantage on that aside, and Med doesn’t make errors with the dtl shots.

Doesn’t do any active good. Maybe it does some indirectly in that FH cc based rallies go more Alcs way - both for his being steadier and his ability to take charge of the point with powerful shots

Good, steady and low staying slicing from Alcs. Generally, he likes to rip BHs cc and while secure looking of form, can be error prone. And with Med generally very good in BH cc rallies, slicing more gives Alcs options. He also hits drive and top spin BHs, but good lot of slices too, more than his norm

His errors stay low and Med’s isn’t able to have his way with the slower shots, so successful enough

If norm of the players is Alcs hammering groundies and Med counter-punching without undue strain, things are different in that Med is substantially uncomfy trading stock groundies. Off both wings. It brings home how in general, he’s quite cozy rallying reactively. Nothing unusually intense about Alcs’ hitting and I’d put this down to Med just being off

All 4 groundies are clustered together in UEs between 8-11
Neutral UEs - Alcs 8, Med 13

That stat alone would give you very good idea who won the match (potentially off-set if Med had big freebie lead). In conjunction with Alcs with substantial freebie lead, almost 0 chance of Med winning a match while trailing neutral UEs off the ground like that, given the match-up

With Med returning ‘early’ and rallying closer to baseline, little of the drop-shot exhibition off previous year. Alcs does drop shot Med in and then pass him a couple of times

With Med a bit feeble of shot, Alcs’ natural power advantage off the FH is accentuated. His 12 FH winners are more than all of Med’s 8 (and more than all his own non-FHs of 8 too). So not a bad idea to go FH dtl and avoid Alcs’ FH from Med, but one can only go dtl so often - and redirecting Alcs’ more powerful shots isn’t an inviting prospect

If Med thinks taking returns ‘early’ is protection against serve-volleying, he’s in for a nasty surprise. Alcs 8/11 serve-volleying - drawing errors and deftly dropping volleys for winning shots. Med comes to net a bit too - outgunned and uncomfy from the back, serve not firing - its one of his few offensive options. He’s as out of sorts there as the back, but does win 12/19 rallying forward. Alcs is much better 6/8, without much need to come in. And serve-volleying is safe way to do it if and when he does anyway

Match Progression
Med opens the match with a striking FH cc winner from normal position and follows up with a dispatched BH cc one at net off after drawing a weak return. Wraps up the love hold with an ace

Then he breaks. Alcs’ missing attacking shots puts him in a hole, though he pulls off a neat, drop-shot Med in + FH cc passing winner combo. Break comes when Alcs blinks up a BH UE and then, missing a strange attempt to attack a deep return with another BH

2-0 Med, and that’s almost the last piece of good news for him. Manages to struggle through a 14 point consolidation for 3-0. He’s broken next time around, with Alcs opening with a whacked FH cc return winner to a body serve and ending with another drop-shot in + FH cc passing winner 1-2

After the initial break, Alcs loses 5 service points for 5 holds. After the initial hold, 4/5 Med holds go to deuce. Alcs has break point at 4-4, but misses a second return looking for a dtl winner. Fantastic point couple points later which sees both players forced back from net, before Med returns and is ultimatley passed for another FH winner

Tiebreak. Having made 10 first serves in a row coming into it, Alcs misses all 6 in the breaker. No matter at all. He grabs the mini to start by overpowering Med and taking net. He can even miss consecutive second returns and still stay ahead. Fun point where Med manages to put an awkward sky hook in play before going onto take the point

Down 4-5 with 2 return points to come, Med pinches the mini back with FH inside-out winner pass, but misses return against a deep second serve to go down set point. The sacrifices of his new, early return position

Med misses a neutral FH dtl to give up the set

Not much need be said about second set. Alcs up his game - more thrashing FHs, zipping about court,early aggressive returns. Med stays the same falt and gets boxed about

A strong, just slightly wide BH cc mildly forces an error from Med. Not an easy ball, but kind he’s in habit of making. Alcs is more successful next point to make a stretching BH dtl pass winner before blasting a FH inside-in return winner taken very early to grab the first break for 2-0

Alcs holds for 4-1 awhile later to love, with Med missing 2 routine second returns and what he makes another routine return by reverting to full-back position. In between, Alcs blasts a FH cc winner

Powerful returns and making most of a flubby volley bring up more break points for Alcs, and he converts when Med misses a drop shot

Alcs serves out to 15, with Med returning from his customary full-back position for the game. The 1 point he wins is a return-pass winner

Summing up, another commanding win for Alcaraz who’s better at everything, with Medvedev being flat and poor

Strange to see the diminutive Alcaraz outserving an oddly ordinary serving opponent

Medvedev playing around with his return position is a good move, given what happened to him previous year and his opponents proven ability to exploit the usual position. He’s not good from any position, and struggles to return. Alcaraz also varies his returning position, and is only bad in rare times when he takes a very backward position. His blasted early returning, sometimes knocked wide, is one of the highlights of the match

And Medvedev is awkward and out of sorts from the baseline, even in stock rallies, leaving Alcaraz room to err a bit being aggressive, but still retain a big advantage with the damage his powerful shots do

Good from Alcaraz, not good from Medvedev, more the latter in determining the result
 
Just watched tape of IW finals day. Alcaraz arrived just after 9, doing his calisthenics and practicing while Med arrived at 11. You can't arrive 2 hours later than your rival and hope to beat him. No dedication at all!
 
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