Duel Match Stats/Reports - del Potro vs Murray, quarter-final & del Potro vs Djokovic, semi-final, Indian Wells 2013

[Waspsting]

Juan Martin del Potro beat Andy Murray 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-1 in the Indian Wells quarter-final, 2013 on hard court

del Potro would go onto lose in the final to Rafael Nadal. Murray had recently finished runner-up at the Australian Open and would go onto win Wimbledon later in the year

del Potro won 99 points, Murray 84

Serve Stats
del Potro...
- 1st serve percentage (52/92) 57%
- 1st serve points won (40/52) 77%
- 2nd serve points won (22/40) 55%
- Aces 3, Service Winners 2
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (19/92) 21%

Murray...
- 1st serve percentage (52/91) 57%
- 1st serve points won (38/52) 73%
- 2nd serve points won (16/39) 41%
- Aces 8 (1 second serve, 1 whiff), Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 8
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (24/91) 26%

Serve Pattern
del Potro served...
- to FH 36%
- to BH 63%
- to Body 1%

Murray served...
- to FH 36%
- to BH 55%
- to Body 8%

Return Stats
del Potro made...
- 59 (24 FH, 35 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 15 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (3 FH, 2 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 10 Forced (6 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (59/83) 71%

Murray made...
- 72 (29 FH, 43 BH), including 4 return-approaches
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 14 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (1 FH, 4 BH)
- 9 Forced (3 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (72/91) 79%

Break Points
del Potro 4/11 (6 games)
Murray 0/2 (2 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
del Potro 17 (7 FH, 1 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 6 OH)
Murray 24 (10 FH, 6 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV, 5 OH)

del Potro's FHs - 1 cc pass, 1 cc/longline pass at net, 2 inside-out, 2 inside-in, 1 net chord dribbler
- BH return - 1 dtl

- 2 OHs were on the bounce from no-man's land

Murray's FHs - 1 dtl, 5 inside-out, 2 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc, 1 drop shot
- BHs - 1 cc pass, 1 cc/down-the-middle return (that del Potro left), 2 dtl, 1 inside-out/dtl, 1 net chord dribbler

- 2 OHs were on the bounce and 1 other OH can reasonably be called a FHV

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
del Potro 35
- 19 Unforced (11 FH, 8 BH)
- 16 Forced (10 FH, 6 BH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.8

Murray 55
- 37 Unforced (18 FH, 18 BH, 1 FHV)
- 18 Forced (9 FH, 7 BH, 2 FHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.6

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
del Potro was...
- 14/18 (78%) at net, with...
- 1/2 forced back

Murray was...
- 18/24 (75%) at net, including...
- 0/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve
---
- 1/4 (25%) return-approaching
- 1/2 forced back

Match Report
Unusual match where del Potro’s counter-punching sees off Murray’s probing and attacking play. You could say del Potro out-Murray’s Murray on a normal hard court

Winners - Delpo 17, Murray 24 (FHs are Delpo 7, Murray match high 10)
UEs - Delpo 19, Murray 37

… says most of what needs to be said. Other points of interest concern unreturneds (Murray leading 26% to 21% - a product of his stellar handling of big serves) and double faults (Murray with high 8)

Serve & Return
Serve-return complex is roughly equal - Murray’s stellar returning giving him a prospective edge that’s cancelled out by big lot of double faults

Both players with meaty serves, both landing 52 first serves. Delpo with slightly bigger serve, but…

Aces/Service Winners - Murray 8, Delpo 5 (Murray also has a second serve ace)
Forced return errors drawn - Murray 10, Delpo 9

That’s down to Murray’s exceptional ability to make tough returns. He moves into position so quickly and readily as to make it look routine even. And once in position, he strikes firmly, only blocking when there’s no other choice

You’d have to see other players - including Delpo here - to fully appreciate how well Murray handles the hefty serves. Delpo’s serving could easily be good for 30% freebies, but its kept down to low 21%

For that matter, good second returning by Murray too. He moves forward and into the shot while hitting hard. That plus depth gives him good starting position for the upcoming rally (Delpo still wins 55% of his second serve points for other reasons, more on that later)

He wins just 1/4 return-approaching, which is curious because those are particularly hard and deep hit returns. 1 easy volley miss and 2 improbable plays account for it, but the returns themselves are first class

With serve strength close to equal and Murray’s returning so good, he’s in good position to come out first two shot contest with advantage. He doesn’t because of 8 double faults (Delpo has just 1)

Combining double faults with unreturned serves, Delpo win 27 points, Murray 25

Second serve strength from Murray is good enough to discourage attacking returns. Not that Delpo is unduly on look out for such chances, but he does take the odd return to the cleaners, but just the odd, rare one. But 8 double faults is a big price to pay. Its not a damaging second serve and so many double faults just to keep opponent from attacking (as opposed to doing damage to opponent) gives a little look into Murray’s general problems with second serves

Murray serve vs Delpo return contest is merely normal and Delpo with return rate of 71% is an indicator of what his own serve might get him. It gets him just 79% thanks to Murray’s excellent returning… which is cancelled out by all those double faults

Gist - serve-return complex matters roughly equal - Delpo steady in both areas, Murray exceptionally good on return and poor in a particular area of serving (double faulting)

Play - Baseline (& Net)
Action is mostly baseline stuff and changes subtly across the match. Murray is always the more proactive

Early on, he looks to break down Delpo’s BH and directs BH cc’s and FH inside-outs firmly that way. Some move around counter-punching FHs by Delpo, but he largely sticks to playing BHs back - top spin shots with a few slices thrown in. Hitting is good form both players and rallies not short, but Delpo’s BH holds the fort and has match low 8 UEs and FEs 6

Later, Murray ups things (or tries to) by going for point ending shots, particularly FH inside-outs. He has match high 5 winners with the shot (Delpo has 2 - and 7 total FH winners), but also misses plenty

10 winner attempt UEs from Murray, most of them FHs. Not great for 24 winners, but not terrible either. Delpo has just 3 for 17 winners

Later still, Murray ups things in a different way, by going in for beat-down strong groundies as a staple (as opposed to normal, firm hitting), while going for outright winners in between - sometimes almost out of nowhere, more often from Delpo’s less strong rejoinders (not weak). It’s a style of play outside Murray’s norm and he’s not very good at it. Delpo’s able to resist the power and Murray usually gives up the error going for another power groundie (or winner)

One thing Delpo does well is deal with deep, powerful returns on his second serve points. Almost never gives up an error to these genuinely troubling balls

 

[Waspsting]

That’s the action. How are the numbers?

Delpo’s BH with match low 8 UEs is key - Murray has 18 of each wing and Delpo’s FH has 11

Neutral UEs - Delpo 9, Murray 19

Complete fail for Murray in trying to break down Delpo’s BH, which is firm hitting and doesn’t yield weak balls on top of remaining solid. The neutral UE counts is a body blow for Murray

FEs (Delpo 16, Murray 18) and attacking UEs (Delpo 7, Murray 8) are near same

Murray being the aggressor comes through in leading winners 24-17 (with a 16-8 lead in ground winners), but Delpo’s a lot more efficient picking his moments (Winner Attempt UEs Delpo just 3, Murray 10)

Looks like biggest difference is in Murray’s failure to breakdown Delpo’s BH, which he tries with normal firm shots and beefed up powerful ones, BH cc and FH inside-out. Credit to Delpo’s BH for steadiness and more discredit to Murray’s faltering with the UEs

He’s rarely sloppy and errors don’t come quickly, but when pressing towards advantage, Murray can’t keep it up for too long (and his ‘pressing’ towards advantage is moderate at most, as far as attacking play goes)

Both players doing very well at net - Delpo winning 78% of 18 approaches, Murray a full 17/19 or 89% rallying to net. Sneak-approaches make up large lot of Murray’s trips forward and he doesn’t come in from commanding positions. Probably a better way to attack than what he actually does from the back

Match Progression
First set is uneventful. Murray gets a few freebies with the serve, Delpo very little. Baseline rallies are ball-bashing of nature with Murray aiming both BH cc’s and back-away FH inside-outs at Delpo’s BH. Initially, Delpo moves around to play back neutral FHs - almost always back inside-out rather than counter-attackingly inside-in. As he gains in confidence, he settles on playing BH cc’s back - mostly top spin, some slice

Murray’s FH is the loosest shot on show and gives up the most errors. He hits a small number of winners (Delpo almost none) and comes to net a little (Delpo almost literally never)

After Murray holds from 15-40 in the opener with strong serves and a pair of winners (BHV and BH dtl from up court), there are no more break points

Tiebreak. Delpo goes for a few big FHs and misses. He’d barely gone for any all set and the misses prove the difference in a strange affair. Of the 12 points, server wins just 3 (Murray 2, Delpo 1)

11 winners, 20 UEs in the set for Murray. Delpo has 4 winners, 13 UEs. He’s been to net all of 4 times - once forced back and twice in the last regular game. A very reactive, passive set from him by any standard, a proactive one from Murray by his own not high one

Action changes some in second set. Breaking to love for 2-0 lead - couple good points from Delpo, a sloppy FH winner attempt error and double fault from Murray - frees Delpo up some. He serves more powerfully and Murray misses the odd makeable return, unlike earlier. Delpo uncorks with a few FHs and moves over to slap FHs and comes to net more than earlier (which had been rare). It’d be an exaggeration to describe Delpo’s play as ‘aggressive’, but less reactive than before

Murray starts going for point ending FH inside-outs, which is unusual for him. Makes a few, misses a few and while not getting anywhere in return games, endures a 14 points hold where he saves both break points by coming to net. The 1 break is good enough to see Delpo through though

Delpo’s in-count dropping to 46% in the decider (for first 2 sets it had been 61%) makes his service games a scraggly affairs in the third set. He faces break point for first time in the match in his first hold (during which he declines to challenge a Murray return winner under his nose that replays indicate had been out) and faces another next time around. Delpo’s 3 service games last 8, 12 and 8 points - but he holds them all

Murray loses 6 games in a row after holding to open. With long games, doesn’t feel too one sided (Points won during that run - Delpo 30, Murray 18). Murray remains the aggressor, if anything, to a greater extent than at any point in the match. Beat-down strong groundstrokes (Delpo resists, not without discomfort), with shot-making thrown in (misses good lot). Delpo’s particularly good at handling Murray’s powerful, deep returns in this part of the match

Summing up, curious match that showcases both players abilities in areas they’re not particularly known for. del Potro plays a reactive, counter-punching game with minimal attempt to contest for command or counter-attack and only an occasional flashing FH. His BH is Murray’s target, and it holds the fort well, showing both good consistency and shot-resistance

Aggressive showing from Murray, by his standard. There’s shot-making, beat-down hitting, sneak-approaches, return-approaches. He’s not very good at most of it - and gives up more errors than he can afford, given how solid his opponent is. What he is best at - net play - he does the least

Stats for the final between del Potro and Rafael Nadal - Match Stats/Report - Nadal vs del Potro, Indian Wells final, 2013 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)

@Drob

 

[Checkmate]

Peak Del Potro >>> Peak Murray
That's what happened.

 

[Mainad]

Peak Del Potro >>> Peak Murray
That's what happened.

Peak Del Potro in 2013? What happened to him in 2009 when he lost to Murray in 2 of their 3 meetings including after he won the US Open??

That said, Del Potro should have gone on to win that event. Instead he had to wait another 5 years before finally beating Fed for the title!

 

[StrongRule]

Peak Del Potro in 2013? What happened to him in 2009 when he lost to Murray in 2 of their 3 meetings including after he won the US Open??

That said, Del Potro should have gone on to win that event. Instead he had to wait another 5 years before finally beating Fed for the title!

Why exactly he "should" have won it? He was 3 games away, but couldn't keep the level till the end. Nadal deservedly outplayed him.

 

[Drob]

I noticed the following BH stats for Delpo at 2009 RG SF:

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Federer 43 (23 FH, 12 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 5 OH)
del Potro 38 (19 FH, 12 BH, 1 FHV, 5 BHV, 1 OH)

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Federer 59
- 38 Unforced (25 FH, 11 BH, 1 FHV, 1 OH)
- 21 Forced (13 FH, 7 BH, 1 FHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.1

del Potro 69
- 40 Unforced (22 FH, 17 BH, 1 OH)... the OH was on the bounce from the baseline
- 29 Forced (11 FH, 18 BH)... with 4 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.3

As match goes on, and Delpo takes lead, he gains in confidence. Initially, he mostly strikes his BHs hard.

Delpo has hitting advantage of the BH

Admittedly, this is completely unlike the USO F stats v Fed later that year. But that is not my point - we know how most Fed-Delpo matches went; they went FH heavyweight slug fest.

I also just reviewed your fine piece on the Nadal-Delpo IW F. Delpo BH stats in F, like here, showing what became more and more the case as surgeries went on - FH dependent tennis.

Do we have the 2009 IW Delpo-Djokovic match, BTW?

 

[Drob]

Re. Murray, you write:

by going in for beat-down strong groundies as a staple (as opposed to normal, firm hitting), while going for outright winners in between

Beat-down strong groundstrokes (Delpo resists, not without discomfort), with shot-making thrown in (misses good lot)

Aggressive showing from Murray, by his standard. There’s shot-making, beat-down hitting,

Sorry, I have not noticed this term "beat-down" before. Is "beat-down" a particular term-of-art? Does it refer to depth? Or is it like a synonym for your your 50 rating of shot?

Fine posts. Thanks.

 

[Waspsting]

Sorry, I have not noticed this term "beat-down" before. Is "beat-down" a particular term-of-art? Does it refer to depth? Or is it like a synonym for your your 50 rating of shot?

Its not a technical term, its a descriptive one that I use for particularly hard-hitting baseline play

Examples of guys who indulge are Courier, many versions of Agassi. Lendl to an extent, particularly of his FH

there's pushing - below average force (by which I'm most thinking of pace)
there's normal - average force
there's hard-hitting - above average force
and beat-down - particularly hard hitting force

Imagine 2 guys having BH-BH rallies with each of the above

Biggest thing in taking stats is differentiating between UE and FE, and one reason for the difference is power of ball that draws the error. Whose to say where the line is that a ball is so powerful that it draws an FE rather than a UE?

When I say 'beat-down', I mean a standard of hitting strength that's skirting the line between being forceful and unforceful - not wide hit shots, which I'd call 'attacking', but purely on power grounds alone being challenging. Movement of receiver isn't being tested, his ability to withstand force is

I'll probably still mark an error drawn as a UE if the guy doesn't have to move, but its less discreditworthy to the error-maker than giving up an error to lesser hitting (which tends to get confounded because beat-down errors typically come in shorter rallies than lesser strenght hitting but that's a whole other thing)

Have you seen the '96 Olympics final between Agassi and Bruguera? That'd be my definition of a beat-down showing
Lendl's FH hitting in the '81 French final is another example

Murray in general, rarely (and by rarely, I mean almost never) goes up to beat-down standard hitting. Normal hitting, with some minor variations - particularly yanking the BH cc a little wider, so it stood out in this match

Anything beyond beat-down hitting goes into 'attacking' territory - a single shot highly likely to end the point, not part of a series of shots designed to sooner or later draw the error (think Delpo smacking a FH full blast, close to his opponent)

 

[BrokenGears]

Good to see more match analysis from you Waspsting! Hopefully you decide to do some recent slam matches

 

[tudwell]

Good to see more match analysis from you Waspsting! Hopefully you decide to do some recent slam matches

I need his take on this year's Wimby final. And he's done the first two slam finals of the year so I assume he gets around to it before too long.

Great stuff as usual, Wasp!

 

[Waspsting]

del Potro beat Novak Djokovic 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 in the semi-final

Djokovic had recently won the Australian Open and was world #1 and top seed. The two players would meet in the Shanghai final later in the year and before that, in a 5 set semi-final at Wimbledon, with Djokovic winning both times

del Potro won 101 points, Djokovic 100

Serve Stats
del Potro...
- 1st serve percentage (65/104) 63%
- 1st serve points won (40/65) 62%
- 2nd serve points won (21/39) 54%
- Aces 4
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (25/104) 24%

Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (59/97) 61%
- 1st serve points won (37/59) 63%
- 2nd serve points won (20/38) 53%
- Aces 5, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (17/97) 18%

Serve Pattern
del Potro served...
- to FH 50%
- to BH 47%
- to Body 3%

Djokovic served...
- to FH 42%
- to BH 56%
- to Body 2%

Return Stats
del Potro made...
- 78 (30 FH, 48 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 1 runaround BH
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (6 FH)
- 5 Forced (4 FH, 1 BH)
- Return Rate (78/95) 82%

Djokovic made...
- 76 (43 FH, 33 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 1 return-approach
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 21 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (2 FH, 5 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 14 Forced (10 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (76/101) 75%

Break Points
del Potro 5/12 (6 games)
Djokovic 4/11 (5 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
del Potro 20 (13 FH, 4 BH, 2 BHV, 1 OH)
Djokovic 29 (9 FH, 7 BH, 6 FHV, 2 BHV, 5 OH)

del Potro's FHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 6 inside-out, 5 inside-in (1 not clean)
- BHs - 1 cc pass, 1 dtl at net, 1 dtl/inside-out, 1 net chord dribbler

Djokovic's FHs - 3 cc (1 pass that can reasonably be called a slice), 1 dtl pass, 1 dtl/inside-out, 2 inside-out, 1 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc
- BHs - 1 cc pass, 4 dtl (1 return), 1 drop shot at net, 1 drop shot/dtl slice

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a second FHV
- 1 from a return-approach point, a BHV

- 1 other FHV was a swinging inside-out
- 2 OHs were on the bounce (1 from no-man's land, 1 from baseline) and 1 other OH was a net chord roll over

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
del Potro 51
- 32 Unforced (18 FH, 13 BH, 1 OH)
- 19 Forced (14 FH, 3 BH, 1 FH1/2V, 1 BHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 42.8

Djokovic 54
- 42 Unforced (21 FH, 19 BH, 2 FHV)
- 12 Forced (7 FH, 5 BH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.0

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
del Potro was...
- 10/19 (53%) at net, with...
- 1/2 forced back

Djokovic was...
- 19/24 (79%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 2nd serve
---
- 1/1 return-approaching
- 1/1 forced back

Match Report
del Potro and Djokovic play similarly of style and remain evenly matched throughout to make for a very good encounter in 96 degree heat

Match long stats are almost identical
1st serve in - Delpo 63%, Djoko 61%
1st serve won - Delpo 62%, Djoko 63%
2nd serve won - Delpo 54%, Djoko 53%

Delpo wins exactly 1 more point. He serves 7 more and break points read Delpo 5/12 (6 games), Djoko 4/11 (5 games)

Matches this close tend to turn on a point here, a point there. That’s not really true here. The result goes Delpo’s way because he has run of play at the end. He wins 6 of the last 7 games (and 2 break points in the 1 game he loses). During that run, he wins 29 points, Djoko 14

Despite the lop-sidedness of those figures, even there things aren’t too one-sided. Action is about as competitive as it has been prior, with Delpo getting better of it. Just as Djoko had before, without ever giving impression of shooting ahead. Nor is fitness a factor in the end. Its 96-97 degrees and both players feel the heat throughout. Delpo seemingly more and he strategically conserves energy rarely (i.e. lets some balls go with little or no effort), while Djoko saves bursts of particular effort about the same amount (i.e. dog-on-a-bone, will chase down everything possible). Delpo takes his sweet time between points, including returns ones, sometimes taking a drink of water

Towelling of after every point has become norm. But calling for a sip of water between points fairly often, including when returning is pushing it. Give it 10 years and that’ll be the norm and anyone who questions it will face automated reply of being a fuddy-duddy who doesn’t understand how hard it is to play tennis in the heat these days. 10 years after that, probably same story with players needing a massage every changeover. And then massages between points. Umpire has to tell Delpo to play to returners pace, as he’s off drinking water with Djoko ready to serve - and he’s not told the first time he does it

Action is baseline based, and there’s a bit of everything going on. Good, stock cc exchanges of both sides, testing consistency where both players hitting well and not yielding weak balls. Moving-opponent-around play is moderate - corner to corner running rallies are rare, but moving this way then that for next shot. Attacking point construction. Some shot-making, with Delpo’s FH being the best of it without quite shining or standing out too much

Some lovely, sneak-in net play from Djoko is highlight of forecourt action. Its very well done and planned

Delpo is solidly sound as base, and ups things from there. Djoko the same. Djoko has slightly better of court action, with his clever net play giving him the advantage, with baseline stuff roughly equal. But Delpo gets better of serve-return contest because his serve is better

Along with the quarter-final, these two matches showcase Delpo’s ability to excel at orthodox, baseline tennis against 2 of the very best at that sort of thing. Steady BH while hitting firmly is common feature (breaking down BHs in cc exchanges is major play of both his opponents). Some slicing thrown in. Stock FH as power but he’s not over-eager to go on the hunt with it. Steady returning, hefty serving. And not bad movement. While in the Murray match he’d been content to play second fiddle and counter-punch, here takes an even share of dictating action - neither straining for it, nor inviting Djoko to do so

As in the earlier match, Delpo’s BH with match low UEs of 13 (other shots have 18, 19 and 21) and Delpo winning neutral UE contest 24 - 27 (including a defensive UE for Delpo)

The two matches invite comparison between Djoko and Murray too. One difference is Murray returns considerably better than Djoko’s able to
Murray made tough returns readily, without taking a step back or even looking put out doing it. Djoko does not. For starters, he is less assured in coping with hefty, not-easy to tough serves

Just watching the returners, you wouldn’t be able to tell Murray’s facing good serve. Same can’t be said for Djoko, leaving aside his being considerably more prone to missing the makeably difficult or not-easy return. In general, Murray is more consistent returning big serves than Djoko (and more comfy looking), but Djoko is a touch off in this match from his norm

Serve & Return
Delpo has better of it, particularly due to the serves, with Djoko’s being ordinary. The other notable feature is Djoko’s returning not being too effective

Delpo with stronger serve hasn’t fully come out in figures

Aces/Service Winners & their rate off first serves - Delpo 4 at 6%, Djoko 6 at 10%
... looks like Djoko with more potent serve

Those would be the exceptionals. As return errors go -
- UEs - Delpo 6, Djoko 7
- FEs - Delpo 5, Djoko 14

Just a step-up from point-starter serving from Djoko - average pace, in swing zone stuff, with tough, potentially error forcing serves the exception. Delpo returns comfily against it, especially off the BH. He has just 1 BH error to 10 FHs, despite Djoko serving 56% serves to BH

Delpo’s serve by contrast is hefty and healthy and he gets good bounce. Its kind of court where someone like Djoko’s capable of returning effectively against it the way Murray did in earlier round

Not much of that from Djoko. Negligible deep, threatening returns and fair few soft ones

Gist of it is in freebies - Delpo 24%, Djoko 18%, with quality of returns favouring Delpo too (softer returns from Djoko, easier third balls to start rally off for Delpo)

 

[Waspsting]

Play - Baseline (& Net)
Winners - Delpo 20, Djoko 29
Errors Forced - Delpo 12, Djoko 19
(Aggressively ended points - Delpo 32, Djoko 48)
UEs - Delpo 32, Djoko 42

Djoko with little better of things. A little surprisingly, his leading on the aggressive stuff, with Delpo staying more steady. Similar to Murray match, though dynamics are different

In Murray match, Delpo counter-punched
Here, he’s an equal partner in normal tennis - whether its trading firm groundies, moving-opponent-around, looking to draw weaker balls to attack, some proactive shot-making against not weak balls. He does what Djoko does, and Djoko’s a little better at it

Rallies tend to start with neutral, firm hitting cc exchanges. On the FH, Delpo is harder hitter, but Djoko’s able to handle it without much trouble and his own hitting doesn’t weaken for it. On BH, things are about even, with Djoko more able to change directions. Delpo turns to slicing occasionally, Djoko less so

Delpo’s FH with match high 13 winners (other groundies have 9, 7 and 4). He keeps the shot in check but when he unloads, its effective.. Djoko’s overall lead in winners is based on clever net play (and BH getting a few licks in, in a way Delpo’s doesn’t). Djoko leads net winners 13-3. He anticipates/reads Delpo about to slice and sneaks in. Djoko winning 79% at net, Delpo just 53%, with neither player looking to come in off short ball (and there not being many short balls drawn)

Delpo’s FH also with by far match high 14 FEs (other groundies have 7, 5 and 3), and this is again credit to Djoko’s brains and execution. He draws these errors with both BH line and wider FH cc shots. Delpo’s movement isn’t very good and Djoko’s more free in going wide with FH cc than BH. Its risky because if he doesn’t get the ball out of reach, he’d know that a very fat FH rejoinder is likely outcome. Djoko judges his attacking FH cc’s very well - not risking error by going too wide, but keeping ball wide enough to force error

Djoko’s considerably better defensively and reactively. Delpo on run isn’t too difficult to put out of the point. Djoko is more difficult to finish a point against, and as is his way, is able to hit initiative neutralizing shots from running or defensive positions. It has a hand in keeping the gap in FEs in his favour

Which leaves UEs. By groundstokes -
- Delpo BH 13
- Delpo FH 18, Djoko BH 19
- Djoko FH 21

… and by type -
- neutral - Delpo 23, Djoko 27
- attacking - both 5
- winner attempts - Delpo 3, Djoko 10

Delpo getting better of BH exchanges coming through. His shot is that much more consistent

Delpo’s sound shot choices and shifts to aggression coming through in big winner attempt UEs difference. 20 winners for just 3 errors is outstanding. Djoko has 29 for 10 - not bad, but Delpo’s ratio is so good, if anything, it suggests he should be more adventurous in going for his shots. He doesn’t showcase it much, but he’s capable to blasting point ending shots from routine positions

Why would he, though, when he’s got the better neutral blink rate, without giving up weak balls for Djoko to readily attack (in fact, having slight hitting advantage on FH, with BHs about the same)?

Djoko’s lead in winners and errors forced show him to be the more aggressive player. That’s not out of necessity (the neutral gap isn’t that big). Its sound enough play, and even well judged of attacking progression (given Delpo’s too solid to give up weak balls). Room for improvement in execution but certainly good stuff from Djoko. Delpo’s winner hitting efficiency isn’t a reasonable basis of comparison

Delpo getting better of basic consistency (neutral UEs) is first step in all this and its not a predictable one. Directly related is the solidity of his BH

Gist - Delpo playing steady game off both wings, while being open to attacking with FH. The BH is the steadies shot out there, and the FH fires when called upon regularly, without any danger of being over-used. His movements aren’t too good and he’s vulnerable to wide balls to his FH side

Djoko also playing a dual winged solid game as starting point. A little surprisingly, he trails in blink rate so doing, putting the onus on him to attack more. Which he does well enough - he’s able to adroitly exploit opponent’s movement, and moderately attack off both wings (unlike opponent, whose BH is not much threat) and most charmingly, utilize sneak-approach net play to good effect

Match Progression
Meat and potatoes first set. Just the 1 break and Djoko having substantially better of it

Djoko serves 27 points for 5 holds, no deuce games. Delpo 45 for 4 holds and being broken once, with just 1 game not going to deuce

Delpo’s serve causes Djoko some trouble. He’s a bit slow in moving to his FH side, and Djoko takes advantage with precise BH dtl shots. Otherwise, action is standard, firm hitting cc rallies, with errors ending most points

Serving at 3-4, Delpo has to save 4 break points in 14 point game, including 1 with a lucky, net chord dribbling slice winner
He’s broken next time around in a 10 point game on third break point of the game. Good, sound rallies end the game, with Delpo eventually giving up the errors

Second set is completely different with 5 breaks. Delpo starts unloading with a few big FHs, unlike earlier

3 breaks to start the set. Djoko looking to be a bit more aggressive than earlier, makes errors in the games. The last of the 3 breaks is an excellent, tough rally that settles into BH cc exchange, which Delpo finishes by slapping a dtl/inside-out winner

He’s taken to deuce to consolidate and his FH fires 3 winners in the game (2 inside-in, 1 inside-out)

2 more FH inside-in winners gets him another break to go up 5-2. Djoko pulls a break back with some firepower of his own, finishing the game with a BH dtl return winner that’s not too far out of the slow Delpo’s reach. Delpo serves out second time of asking

Third set is the most gruelling of the match, with longest rallies and most moving-opponent-around play. Djoko breaks and moves to 3-0 lead. He’s zipping about the court, but his consolidation hold is 10 point game with lots of tough rallies

He only wins 1 more game, despite nature of action not changing much

Most memorable and possibly best winner of the match comes from Djoko when he makes a slicey FH cc passing winner on the stretch against a powerful Delpo FH approach, as Delpo gets on the board for 1-3. Later on, he hits another odd winner - a BH dtl slice that’s effectively a drop shot

Action for rest of match is tough, along lines outlined earlier and rallies are competitive. It just so happens Delpo wins so many more of them. Game 9, where he secures the decisive break (he’d had 2 break points previous go around too) is particularly tough. Penultimate point of the game is particularly good, with Delpo harrying about to defend, before turning dynamic around with a FH dtl that gets him on the attack, which he finishes with brutal FH inside-out winner. Longish rally next point ends with Djoko missing cc BH to leave Delpo serving for the match

He moves to 30-0 with Djoko missing an easy FHV for once. Djoko wins next 2 points, but misses a routine slice after that, before Delpo slams down an ace to close things out

Summing up, good, sturdy baseline match with a bit of everything going on. Standard cc exchanges across both diagonals, with both players hitting well. Moving-opponent-around play. Attacking and shot-making, a bit of drop-shotting, some very nice sneak-in net play by Djokovic

Not much in the result. del Potro serves heftily, returns steadily, remains particularly steady off his BH. He has slight hitting advantage off the FH, which he doesn’t particularly look to use aggressively, but whenever he does, it tends to work out. He’s a bit slow at times, and vulnerable wide on the FH

Djokovic’s serve is almost harmless and he never quite gets a grip on the return. He’s quicker and has better shot resistance than his opponent, has more variety of the BH (but is looser with the errors) and doesn’t trail FH force by much. Throw in clever sneaking in trips to the forecourt, and he’s got slightly better of court action, off-set by del Potro having better of serve-return complex

All that comes out near enough even, and result ends up going del Potro’s way

More broadly, these two matches taken together showcase a very sound game from del Potro. Getting better of both Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic in BH consistency is no mean feat, and leaves him not needing to rely on FH aggression for result, though its there for him when he wants

@Drob - thoughts?

 

[Drob]

Very interesting about Novak, actually. This problem with tough serves. Was that normal at that point in his career? If so, he is a better player today (in that important respect). "Djokovic's serve is almost harmless." Well, we know of course his serve is much better today. But his serve AND HIS RETURN are better? Interesting if that is what you are seeing in his matches from a decade ago.

It is also thought, correctly surely, that Djokovic is currently playing the net so much better than at any time in his career. But in this match we have an example of him using the approach and volley quite skillfully.

Interesting your comment the Delpo should have gone for more winners. I wonder if that is generally the case. I have seen a number of matches where I thought something similar.

Water between points? I admit the Juan Martin has this subtle theatricality where he exaggerates the adversity, but this water business is nonsense and I would have time-warned him and beyond as necessary. He was my guy and he was courageous almost beyond imagining. But on-court JM could sometimes be too precious.

 

[Waspsting]

This problem with tough serves. Was that normal at that point in his career?

I don't think so. Just a not particularly good day kind of thing
He returned Delpo's serve on a faster court immaculately later in the year in Shanghai

Also, having lumped these two matches together, I was looking at it from perspective of comparison with Murray. Returning big, tough serves is an area where I think Murray was generally a little better than Djoko - and where Murray is the best of all

75% return rate is just fine. Could be better, could be a lot worse too

Whats missing here is the easy, deep returns near the baseline. Its in matches like this when it is missing that one sees how big a part of Djoko's effectiveness flows out out of it

Almost anyone else hits a return down the middle within a foot of baseline, you think "that's a great return". For example, Tsitsipas hits 3-4 like that in '19 Madrid match with Nadal and I noted it

Djokovic? For him its just par for the course. Its not even an effort shot - just his routine return

The high bounce is tricky here. I haven't noticed it to be a particular problem for Djokovic during any period
More recently, in Madrid '22 against Alcaraz, the bounce led to Djoko retreating and returning from quite far back. And again, you see just how much a difference it makes for his whole game. That throttling thing he likes to do, especially to aggressive players... couldn't do it to Alcaraz and big part of reason is not being able to start the process of the bat with the return (and Alcs isn't the type to not make most of a not-strong return)

Interesting your comment the Delpo should have gone for more winners. I wonder if that is generally the case. I have seen a number of matches where I thought something similar.

It is the case both in '12 and '17 Basel matches with Federer

Top class winners : winner attempt UEs... and given he's able to hit a winner from out of nowhere off the FH, going for it more often is defintely a viable option for him
Other way of looking at it is he's excercising excellent judgment in picking when to go for it

As a rule of thumb, player making more neutral UEs would do well to be more aggressive. In this match, Delpo's not in that position (which is a bit surprising), so less need for it

In the matches I've looked at, Delpo doesn't get wildly aggressive with the FH, but is measured in his aggressive shot choices. And usually, very effective when he decides to get stuck into one

Water between points? I admit the Juan Martin has this subtle theatricality where he exaggerates the adversity, but this water business is nonsense and I would have time-warned him and beyond as necessary. He was my guy and he was courageous almost beyond imagining. But on-court JM could sometimes be too precious.

You've noticed how Federer seems to get quite antsy playing him?

I have no concrete reason to believe this, but get the feeling its because of things like this - and Fed suspecting its all an act (he also plays possum quite a lot)

There is humour in Delpo. I remember a match where at the change-over, Chair is telling him he needs to be quicker between points. Delpo asks, "But after a long rally?" - and the imploring, sweet look he gives as he does it is... precious is the perfect word to describe it

(it didn't work, Chair said something like 'even after a long rally', but worth a shot)