Duel Match Stats/Reports - Dimitrov vs Goffin, Year End Championship final & round robin, 2017

[Waspsting]

Grigor Dimitrov beat David Goffin 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 in the Year End Championship final, 2017 on indoor hard court in London, England

To date, this is the only final at event for both players. The two had met earlier in the round robin as well with Dimitrov, who topped the group with a 3-0 record, winning. Goffin finished second with a 2-1 record and defeated both Rafael Nadal (in the group stages, before his withdrawal from the event) and Roger Federer (in the semi-final) en route to the final

Dimitrov won 108 points, Goffin 102

Serve Stats
Dimitrov...
- 1st serve percentage (67/103) 65%
- 1st serve points won (47/67) 70%
- 2nd serve points won (18/36) 50%
- Aces 5
- Double Faults 6
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (31/103) 30%

Goffin...
- 1st serve percentage (54/107) 50%
- 1st serve points won (42/54) 78%
- 2nd serve points won (22/53) 42%
- Aces 10
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (31/107) 29%

Serve Pattern
Dimitrov served...
- to FH 40%
- to BH 59%
- to Body 1%

Goffin served...
- to FH 38%
- to BH 59%
- to Body 3%

Return Stats
Dimitrov made...
- 71 (34 FH, 37 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 21 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (1 FH, 6 BH)
- 14 Forced (7 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (71/102) 70%

Goffin made...
- 66 (33 FH, 33 BH), including 6 runaround FHs & 1 return-approach
- 5 Winners (4 FH, 1 BH), including 3 runaround FHs
- 26 Errors, comprising...
- 13 Unforced (8 FH, 5 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 13 Forced (4 FH, 9 BH)
- Return Rate (66/97) 68%

Break Points
Dimitrov 4/15 (7 games)
Goffin 3/10 (4 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Dimitrov 15 (5 FH, 3 BH, 4 FHV, 1 BHV, 2 OH)
Goffin 26 (15 FH, 6 BH, 3 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)

Dimitrov's FHs - 1 cc pass, 2 dtl, 1 inside-out, 1 inside-in at net
- BHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 1 net chord dribbler

Goffin's FHs - 5 cc (1 runaround return, 1 at net), 3 dtl (1 runaround return, 1 at net), 4 inside-out (1 runaround return,1 at net), 3 inside-in (1 return)
- BHs - 5 cc (2 passes), 1 dtl return

- 3 from serve-volley points (2 FHV, 1 BHV), all first volleys

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Dimitrov 39
- 25 Unforced (17 FH, 8 BH)
- 14 Forced (7 FH, 6 BH, 1 Back-to-Net)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.8

Goffin 57
- 41 Unforced (23 FH, 15 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV)
- 16 Forced (7 FH, 6 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.8

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Dimitrov was 13/17 (76%) at net

Goffin was...
- 16/25 (64%) at net, including...
- 4/5 (80%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 3/3 (100%) off 1st serve and...
- 1/2 off 2nd serve
---
- 0/1 return-approaching
- 0/1 forced back

Match Report
Bright, fluent match, with Goffin taking up the aggressor role, Dimitrov solid, careful, opportunistically attacking. Ultimately, Goffin’s hit rate going for his shots is just a little under what it needs to be to gain the win. Court is normal paced, with low bounce

Match comes through in stats like a neat mathematical formula

Things that are virtually equal -
- unreturned serves and double faults (Gof +1)
- double faults (Dimi +1)
- FEs (Gof +2)

… leaving just winners and UEs to look at

- Winners - Dimi 15, Gof 26
“Goffin… in aggressor role”, check

UEs - Dimi 25, Gof 41, broken down as…
Defensive and neutral UEs - Dimi 17, Gof 19
Attacking and winner attempt UEs - Dimi 8, Gof 22

“Goffin’s hit rate going for his shots is just a little under what it needs to be”, check

Gof takes charge to be the aggressor in all ways, including...

Serve & Return
He serves wide, while Dimi’s content to get decent first serves in

Consequently -
- first serve in - Dimi 70%, Gof 50%
- aces - Dimi 5, Gof 10
- first serve ace rate - Dimi 7%, Gof 19%

He’s very aggressive with the return. Not all the time or wildly, but he’s ready, willing and able to go for the point ender with the second shot itself to a degree that would be unusual in any era, but especially this one

He’s got 5 return winners, none of of them passes. Dimi has the conventional 0. When not striking winners, he misses a few going for them and when not going for them, is otherwise apt to not just take the return aggressively early, but going wide with it too. Andre Agassi wasn’t this aggressive returning baseliners

He’s got 1 FH return winner in all 4 basic shot directions. You’d be hard pressed to find any other instances of that. Its rare even against serve-volleying

All that leads to errors too of course. Return errors -
- UEs - Dimi 7, Got 13
- FEs - Dimi 14, Gof 13

Quite a stew of aggression and percentages and funnily enough, it all comes out virtually equal

Both players have 31 unreturned serves
Unreturned rates - Dimi 30%, Gof 29%

They even have very similar double faults (Dimi 6, Gof 5), with Dimi’s rate much worse (17% to Gof’s 9% off second serves). Logical, given Dimi’s under pressure to deliver good second serves to thwart Gof’s aggressive returns

More importantly, second serve points won - Dimi 50%, Gof 42%
… which goes back to “Goffin’s hit rate not being quite good enough” and the winner and aggressive UE figures

Play - Baseline & Net
Play is FH centered and as the aggressor, its largely Gof’s choice to keep it so. Whether that’s sound strategy or not remains to be seen

There are 40 FH UEs, to just 23 BHs

Gof’s aggression is product of shot-making (going for point ending shots from not obvious positions) more than point construction (outplaying opponent to point of leaving an obvious go for winner position). He does it off both wings, and like most players, better off the FH with the shot-making

Leading with FHs is thus sound, taking into account just his game

But Dimi’s FH is no pushover. He doesn’t unduly look to attack, let alone engage in point-ending shot-making, but his FH is more than a match for Gof’s. Slightly stronger of force and ability to get the ball a little wide, short of outright attacking in fact

 

[Waspsting]

BHs are a different matter. Gof with strong, two-handed form, Dimi with his little slices and unthreatening even when driving

Way the BHs are, beating down, breaking down or exploiting Dimi’s BH seems very viable option for Gof. He doesn’t try. No certainty that he’d succeed if he did because Dimi’s BH proves secure (in context of his rarely having to play BHs, due to Gof’s direction and wing choices). Also, though court is average paced, its low bouncing and Dimi’s slices are apt to creep along the ground, curbing Gof’s ability to attack

Whatever the reason for choices (and Dimi having won the pair’s round robin match 0 & 2 might have some answers there), Gof eschews BH rallying and goes straight for FH attacking play, pitting himself against Dimi’s own powerful FH and avoiding the harmless Dimi BH

It might be harmless, but it does hold the fort. UEs by shot -
- Dimi BH 8
- Gof BH 15, Dimi FH 17
- Gof FH 23

More than being a rock, it seems like Dimi's BH is rarely seen, but it certainly hasn’t given grounds

Gof’s FH dominates baseline action for better or worse. Match high winners with 15 (same as Dimi’s total of all shots), match high UEs too with just 2 more than Dimi’s total. While off the BH, he goes for his shots too, though naturally, less so than off the FH

He has more BH winners at 6 than Dimi has FHs at 5, but its the BH misses that are most costly

Getting back to aggressive UEs
- Attacking UEs - Dimi 2, Gof 8
- Winner Attempt UEs - Dimi 6, Gof 14

With FEs similar (Dimi 14, Gof 16), Dimi’s done much better attacking. His checked FH is moderately damaging is one reason, but more than that, Dimi uses net to attack and force errors as much as baseline

He’s 13/17 at net (all rallying forward). Gets a line FH off or comes in after drawing weak return and comes in to to finish quite safely. Gof’s at net even more and 12/19 rallying forward (also serve-volleys some), both for being more net hungry and for his play giving him more chances to come in

But far more attempts by Gof to win points aggressively with moderate shots from the back than Dimi. On this front, credit Dimi for excellent judgment - 16 errors forced, just 2 attacking UEs. Gof nowhere near as good, but not blackmark territory of bad either

Its in going for outright winner that Gof’s hasn’t been successful enough
He’s got 12 more winners than errors trying
Dimi has 9

Ratio of success favours Dimi 2.5 to 1.9, but that doesn’t necessarily matter as long as Gof stays on the attack so much more often, as he in fact does. Gof’s not too far from making his aggressive game work to the tune of victory

BH dtl finisher, the hardest of all the basic shots to hit winners off, is costly for Gof. He misses a small, but crucial few and doesn’t have a winner with it other than a return. Not badly set up by firm cc shots, just misses the finisher. Skips the alternative of banging away with yet more powerful cc shots to Dimi’s not promising looking BH

Statisitcally, those figures are twisted by Gof’s 5 return winners (the errors for which aren’t included in the above stats). Taking that into account, a little worse efficiency for Gof being aggressive (with the damage he does with the return covered in his return errors)

Practically, he has his ebbs and flows. Turns the second set around with a hot phase, which would have looked like utter stupidity had it failed. The break he gives up missing consecutive BH dtl winner attempts in third set does look daft

Live by the sword, die by the sword stuff from Gof. And an interesting approach to match in general, given he has alternatives in hammering away at Dimi’s frail looking BH

Final word on movement. Both players are excellent, especially Dimi, who is absolutely quick as they come, enhanced still more with the stretchy stuff he’s known for. Makes shot-making and attacking against him that much trickier

Match Progression
Both players come out firing and its initially Dimi whose a little more aggressive with is FH, the side both players use large majority of time

First 3 games are all breaks, leaving Gof up 2-1. Starts the match with a FH inside-in winner from routine position. And ends the game with a runaround FH inside-out return winner. In between, hard hitting FH rallies ending in errors by both players

Second game is scarcely less lively, with Gof missing a pair of line BHs (1 out of corner looking for winner, the other routine shot) at the end to get broken. And he breaks right back, finishing with a BH cc passing winner

Things continues in lively fashion with competitive games until a bad one from Gof hands break back for 4-4. Misses consecutive BH dtl winner attempts to go down 0-30, comes away with 2 serve-volleying first volley winners (1 first serve BHV, 1 second serve FHV) to level at 30-30, before double faulting and missing a third ball FH against a decent return

Gof steps up to send set into tiebreak and game gets extended to 14 points before he’s finally broken. Lot of things happening in the game, but its routine errors that cost him in the end, with Dimi doing his bit by hanging in some tough rallies with quicksilver movement to defend

Second set is more serve-shot dominated and there’s just 1 break. Its Gof’s who’s in trouble down 30-40 at 2-3. Rally develops on the break point, with Gof striking an adventurous BH cc winner to end it

It’s a turning point, and Gof gets hot from thereon, striking FH winners all over the place. He breaks next game with back to back FH winners (inside-out from up the court and cc), after Dimi had double faulted twice. There’s more excellent action and game 9 that Dimi holds to 30 is a gorgeous game from both players

Gof serves out to love to send match into decider. Superbly as he’s played in latter half of the set, its worth noting that he couldn’t actually get ahead a break with help of 2 double faults. No shortage of brilliance from Dimi either in coping

BH dtl return winner brings up 2 break points for the with-momentum Gof in opening game. Dimi aces away the first, and Gof misses an early taken second return point after. In all, Dimi saves 4 break points in the 16 point game, with Gof going for his shots, missing some, making some. Game ends with Gof missing a routine first return

Gof has to save a break point in his first hold too, which has a couple of fine rallies and very good routines. Strong serves gets him through

Gof’s fire cools some and play remains equal. The decisive break comes in game 6. Some good rallies in the 12 point game, though usually ending with UEs. Game ends with Gof, for the second time in the match, missing back-to-back BH dtl winner attempts. It’s a wonderful shot when it comes off, but wanton going for it rarely works

Dimi threatens to finish the match with an exclamation mark as he reaches 0-40, 5-2 up with 3 scintillating points all ending with winners

Wins a net-to-net joust to comes away with BHV winner. Then plays a wonderful running-down-drop-shot lob at net to force Gof back, before finishing with a smash. Finally, a lovely BH cc pass winner to bring up 3 break/match points

Gof denies him the showcase finish and comes away with the hold, playing as he has all match

There’s a little tension in the serve-out. Both players miss aggressive shots and Gof takes net to make it 40-30. He outplays Dimi on the second match point and has an easy BHV to open court to push game to deuce - but misses, and that’s that

Summing up, fine and fun match with Goffin attacking from the back off both wings and with the return even, while Dimitrov plays a more stable, solid game
Rallies are lively, with Dimitrov in particular moving splendidly, but Goffin’s not far behind
FHs are at center of action. Dimitrov’s is power and stable. Goffin’s a touch less, but the game he plays is about boxing winners from half-chances
Things are competitive, with Dimitrov having slightly better of things, with Goffin’s shot-making, particularly off the BH, just falling short of what it would have to be to gain the result

 

[Waspsting]

Dimitrov beat Goffin 6-0, 6-2 in the round robin

Both players had won their first match and this result saw Dimitrov qualify for the semi-final

Dimitrov won 66 points, Goffin 38

Serve Stats
Dimitrov...
- 1st serve percentage (27/47) 57%
- 1st serve points won (23/27) 85%
- 2nd serve points won (11/20) 55%
- Aces 2, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (16/47) 34%

Goffin...
- 1st serve percentage (32/57) 56%
- 1st serve points won (20/32) 63%
- 2nd serve points won (5/25) 20%
- Aces 2, Service Winners 2
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (12/57) 21%

Serve Pattern
Dimitrov served...
- to FH 43%
- to BH 57%

Goffin served...
- to FH 38%
- to BH 60%
- to Body 2%

Return Stats
Dimitrov made...
- 40 (17 FH, 23 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 1 return-approach
- 1 Winner (1 FH), a runaround FH
- 8 Errors, comprising...
- 2 Unforced (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 6 Forced (3 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (40/52) 77%

Goffin made...
- 30 (13 FH, 17 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 13 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (4 FH, 3 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 6 Forced (3 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (30/46) 65%

Break Points
Dimitrov 5/11 (5 games)
Goffin 0/1

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Dimitrov 16 (7 FH, 3 BH, 3 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 2 OH)
Goffin 7 (4 FH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)

Dimitrov's FHs - 2 cc (1 at net), 3 dtl, 1 runaround inside-out return, 1 inside-in
- BHs - 2 dtl (1 pass), 1 inside-out/dtl

Goffin's FHs - 1 cc, 1 cc/inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc, 1 running-down-drop-shot cc pass at net

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Dimitrov 18
- 12 Unforced (5 FH, 6 BH, 1 FHV)
- 6 Forced (3 FH, 1 BH, 2 FHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.2

Goffin 29
- 19 Unforced (13 FH, 5 BH, 1 BHV)
- 10 Forced (7 FH, 3 BH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 49.5

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Dimitrov was 13/18 (72%) at net, with...
- 1/1 return-approaching
- 1/1 retreated

Goffin was 4/8 (50%) at net, with...
- 0/1 retreated

Match Report
Fluent showing from Dimitrov who’s at something like his best. Goffin is flat in general, his serve is usually unthreatening and his movement is a little off

The difference in movement is most eye-catching difference. Like the final, Dimi’s zipping around flawlessly. Gof’s not slow in the final, though not as quick as his opponent. Here, he’s under-par and struggles to reach wide balls

One of Goff’s knees is taped up, same way it is in final. From memory, this is the year he’d suffered a nasty knee injury during the clay season

Gof’s first serve is weak. Sends down a good number of about 100mph ones, rarely getting them wide. Even so, he’s won a reasonable 63% first serve points. Its the paltry 20% second serve points won that sinks him

Why? Its not because Dimi returns so damagingly. Its not because Gof’s serve is so weak (though its certainly not strong). 5 double faults or 20% of the time has a good hand. Otherwise, just Dimi playing his best, Gof being flat in the rallies

By contrast, Gof wins decent 55% second return points. Normal stuff on Dimi’s second serves (quality of his serves, of Gof’s returns, of the rallies that come out of it), nothing that’d make you think your watching a 0 & 2 match

Dimi’s first serve points won of 85% is exceptionally high, but again, not something that spells 0 & 2. Especially with not overly high 57% in count. Gof’s considerably off on the return too, and his flat play doesn’t lend itself to making headway when Dimi’s leading rallies

In final, Gof was the shot-maker, Dimi the sound one

Here, Dimi remains sound, but weaker returns from Gof means sound play organically leads to attacking more. He’s not unduly aggressive. Moves forward, often to net as ball he’s faced with it warrants it. Doens’t go for winners indiscriminately, though when he does, nails them

Gof doesn’t go for his shots as much. He looks to play along - on back foot in return points, not too often on front foot on service ones. He does look for the more attacking, wider shots (not winners like the final). And tends to miss them

FH is the chief culprit. 3/4 grounshots are clustered in UEs around 5, with Gof's FH having much bigger 13

Neutral UEs - Dimi 8, Gof 7
Attacking UEs - Dimi 3, Gof 6
Winner Attempt UEs - Dimi 1, Gof 6

12 attacking and more UEs from Gof, while winning 13 points with winners and errors forced. Very poor - and its all about his FH
Dimi has 16 winners and forces 10 errors for his 4 attacking and more UEs by contrast

Again, no attempt by Gof to look to breakdown Dimi’s BH. Unlike final, it doesn’t suggest itself as a clear option. Dimi hits his BHs well both driving and slicing, and again, the slices stay so low as to stymie Gof hitting options

Dimi’s FH star of the show with 7 winners, 5 UEs. Again, he’s not overly aggressive with it, and builds rallies to going for his shots. While seeming to nail every one that he does

What else? - Dimi enjoying healthy 34% unreturneds, Gof 21%

Return errors -
- UEs - Dimi 2, Gof 7
- FEs - Dimi 6, Gof 6

That’s Gof being off on the return. His serve also doesn’t give Dimi a lot of trouble

Its not a terrible showing from Gof - both serve and return are a bit off, he’s a bit flat and movement a bit off. Enough to lose, but wouldn’t call 0 & 2 scoreline from his showing alone

So credit to Dimi for making it so one-sided. He’s sound of approach and builds to attacking from there. Secure off the ground, very quick and engages in point construction. More credit to him for the scoreline than discredit to Gof, though scoreline like that is scarcely possible without a weak hand from the loser

Match Progression
Just 1 tough game in first set, Goffin eventually losing a 16 point service one where he misses chancey, attacking shots and doble faulting a couple times. Dimi skates through his 3 holds for the loss of 2 points, despite making just 5/14 first serves

Just- wide enough first serves to force, makeable return errors - well judged by Dimi, similar to final. Gof also not great at moving and connecting on the returns

Meanwhile, Gof’s second serve’ish first serves allow Dimi to neutralize advantage early and the two play things out from there, with Dimi quicker, and more secure off the ground

Flashy runaround FH inside-out return winner from Dimi facing his second return point. Lovely point in the middle of the set where Dimi strikes with wide FH cc, wide BH cc, good OH and finally finishes the point with a FH1/2V winner. Gof’s movements might be down, but if he can hang in on a point like that, he’s not terrible

Dimi finishes the set by lashing a FH dtl winner

Dimi breaks for 2-0 to start second set, with a couple of double faults in the game and Dimi striking a fine, back-away FH inside-in winner
Dimi faces break point for only time in match in consolidating for 3-0

Strikes 2 winners (FH cc at net and FH dtl) to move to 0-30 thereafter, raising prospects of a double bagel. Gof responds by dispatching 3 net winners. He’d only been to net once in the match prior to the game and that was a forced approach

Dimi with a long 14 point hold where he strikes a fine BH inside-out/dtl winner, right after being given a warning for coaching as his coach had apparently called out to him to use his FH more

And Dimi breaks again to end the match awhile alter in a 14 point game, finishing with a counter-attacking FH dtl winner

Summing up, very good showing from Dimitrov. Like the final, he serves just well enough to draw errors, zips around the court and plays soundly off both wings, coming to net as needed and FH always on the edge of threatening and ready to spill over to be damaging. BHs in play more than final and more varied and solid too

Flat performance from Goffin, who serves gently, is a little off on the return and off the ground. Bad enough to lose, but it takes a particularly good showing by the winner to make it to a 0 & 2 extent

 

[RS]

I remember this one. Dim was on game in this tournament.