Duel Match Stats/Reports - Djokovic vs Federer, Indian Wells finals, 2014 & 2015


Hall of Fame
Novak Djokovic beat Roger Federer 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(3) in the Indian Wells final, 2014 on hard court

It was Djokovic's third title at the event and the first of 3 in a row. Federer was a 4 time four champion. The two would go onto play the Wimbledon final later in the year, with Djokovic winning

Djokovic won 99 points, Federer 98

Serve Stats
- 1st serve percentage (62/96) 65%
- 1st serve points won (47/62) 76%
- 2nd serve points won (17/34) 50%
- Aces 8 (2 not clean), Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (25/96) 26%

- 1st serve percentage (64/101) 63%
- 1st serve points won (45/64) 70%
- 2nd serve points won (21/37) 57%
- Aces 7 (1 not clean), Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (26/101) 26%

Serve Pattern
Djokovic served...
- to FH 35%
- to BH 63%
- to Body 2%

Federer served...
- to FH 42%
- to BH 55%
- to Body 3%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 71 (31 FH, 40 BH)
- 3 Winners (2 FH, 1 BH)
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 3 Unforced (2 FH, 1 BH)
- 15 Forced (5 FH, 10 BH)
- Return Rate (71/97) 73%

Federer made...
- 66 (19 FH, 47 BH), including 2 runaround FHs & 3 return-approaches
- 2 Winners (2 FH), including 1 runaround FH
- 16 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (5 FH, 2 BH), including 1 return-approach-attempt
- 9 Forced (4 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (66/91) 73%

Break Points
Djokovic 2/6 (3 games)
Federer 2/3 (2 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Djokovic 18 (13 FH, 3 BH, 2 OH)
Federer 26 (17 FH, 5 BH, 2 FHV, 2 OH)

Djokovic's FHs - 6 cc (2 passes), 1 dtl pass & 2 dtl returns (1 pass) and 4 inside-out
- BHs - 1 cc pass and 2 dtl (1 return, 1 pass)

Federer's FHs - 7 cc (1 runaround return), 2 dtl (1 return, 1 pass - that Djokovic left), 1 dtl/inside-out, 5 inside-out and 2 inside-in
- BHs - 4 dtl (1 slice) and 1 inside-out/dtl

- 2 from serve-volley points (1 FHV, 1 OH), both second volleys

- 1 from return-approach point, a FHV (not clean)

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Djokovic 41
- 27 Unforced (11 FH, 16 BH)
- 14 Forced (10 FH, 2 BH, 2 FHV)… with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.2

Federer 52
- 32 Unforced (17 FH, 15 BH)
- 20 Forced (13 FH, 5 BH, 2 BHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.3

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was 8/12 (67%) at net

Federer was...
- 7/16 (44%) at net, including...
- 3/4 (75%) serve-volleying, comprising..
- 2/3 (67%) off 1st serve and...
- 1/1 off 2nd serve
- 1/3 (33%) return-approaching
- 0/1 forced back

Match Report
Good match and one of the pair's most even, in both the senses that its 50-50 and in the way each player goes about play

Points won - Djokovic 99, Federer 98
- Unreturned serves - Djoko 25, Fed 26 (both 26%)
- Double faults - Djoko 5, Fed 4
- Points won in play - Djoko 70, Fed 67

Slightly unusual findings -
- Djoko +6% on first serve points won
- Fed +7% on second serve points won
- Net points - Djoko winning 67%, Fed 44% (with similar number of approaches)

In a close match, the last mentioned might be the sliver that pushes odds Djoko's way. He regularly passes Fed - who has just 2 errors in forecourt, both of them forced - and in that light, Fed rarely comes in (just 9 times from rallies. Djoko does 12 times, winning 8). As the more aggressive baseline player, but trailing slightly from the back, the decision takes away a potential match changing option for Fed

First set is breezy, first strike tennis from Federer, but not overly dependent on the serve shot as his more successful outings against Djoko tend to be. Serve is good and with Djoko returning decently on a court tilted towards slow for the surface, gives him small initiatives... and its his attacking shots and shot making that sees him through from there. As opposed to the serve drawing weak returns, leaving very advantageous positions for Fed to capitalize on. Djoko also has a double fault problem, doing so 3 times in his first 2 service games

Just the 1 break right at the start and its mostly about Djoko's bad play. He leaves a ball at net that goes for a winner, has 4 baseline UEs and 2 double faults in the game. Fed's biggest contribution is a snapped through FHV winner (not clean) from a chip-charge return, that's Edberg-esque in how its punched through. Rest of set is comfy holds, Fed tending to hold quickly and seemingly with ease

Second set has tougher and longer points and 3 games go to deuce. Fed's starts missing his moderately attacking shots more and Djoko's neutral groundstrokes are a step down from his norm. 1 break at the end decides it. Again, its an error riddled game, but couple of good points from Djoko. A strong FH inside-out return draws a floating reply that's whipped away with a Federer-like back-away FH inside-out winner. On break point, Djoko throws up a defensive lob from the corner and well behind the baseline to force Fed back, and goes on to win the point

Third set is tough tennis and highest level of play, though not necessarily in nominal stats. Both players up the ante on their neutral shots and its hard hitting tennis. To see it brings home the extent to which it was lacking earlier in match. Both serve much harder too - especially Djokovic

Fed's first 2 service games last a total of 24 points. By contrast, his 4 games in the first set had 27 combined. He's broken in the second one

Fed plays a perfect drop FHV winner couple games later, flipping his wrist back to a firm pass, killing the ball dead and angling away short for a winner

Djoko fails to serve match out despite making 5/5 first serves and we go into a tiebreak, the momentum with Fed who'd won 12/13 points prior to the game before the 'breaker. Solid play from Djoko in - just the 1 UE, a wild one when he was up 5-1 and some typically strong, high percentage moderate attacking plays that forces 2 errors

Serve & Return
Its a good court where both good serving and returning offers rewards but makes it unlikely that serve can dominate thoroughly

In that light, Djoko's superiority on the return gives him a little edge. Note that he unusually leads aces 8-7 (even more unusually, 2 of Djoko's and 1 of Fed's are not clean - just the thinnest of touches)
Fed with 7 UEs to Djoko's 3 with total errors about equal indicate both Fed's better serve and thus, Djoko's better return in having the same results facing stronger shot

Fed's quite good at attacking returning, with 3 chip-charges and a couple of winners

Play - Baseline & Net
The neutral play is down of intensity for most of the match. Its probably this that allows Fed to command play with some comfort for much of it, without undue help from his serve. In third set, when play becomes more hard hitting and fast paced, advantage in play slips towards Djokovic, who's more able to beat Fed down than the other way around

Particularly off BH side, Fed's isn't damaging. Djoko's is potentially beat-down'ng strong. Not a big advantage (UEs on BH are all but equal - 16 Djoko, 15 Fed, which is a relative win for the latter) and Fed has 2 extra winners - 4 of them dtl, all of non-passes. Djoko's compensation is the damage his BH dtl's, which he plays with greater regularity as match wears on, does. Good lot of Fed's match high 13 FEs come out of it and it shapes play in a way Fed's BH does not

Nothing in it of consistency. Neutral UEs - Djoko 17, Fed 18. Fed with 6 more winners and Djoko forcing 6 more errors is in line with each's vigour of attack. Of defence, there's little in it too. Fed moves particularly well, Djoko's footwork is slack at times

Biggest difference is on the pass. Utilizing net play to go along with his greater aggression, which is not enough to end points, would have been ideal for Fed. Instead, Djoko hits 6 passing winners - most of them from positions favouring Fed, as tends to be when one player is at net - Fed wins just 3/9 approaches from rallies and stays back. And Djoko is the heavier hitter from the back by a bit

Summing up, very close match. Djoko's stronger return at least cancelling out Fed's slightly better serve and Djoko slightly stronger in play in the highest quality part of the match. Could have gone either way, but the final result is most appropriate

Stats for pair's '11 Indian Wells semi - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...-federer-indian-wells-semi-final-2011.650196/
Stats for '14 Wimbledon final - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...kovic-vs-federer-wimbledon-final-2014.654578/
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Hall of Fame
Djokovic beat Federer 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-2 in the Indian Wells final, 2015 on hard court

Djokovic had recently won the Australian Open and would go onto win Miami after this. Federer had won the pair's last two meetings. Djoko would win the next two, including the Wimbledon final

Djokovic won 110 points, Federer 89

Serve Stats
- 1st serve percentage (62/101) 61%
- 1st serve points won (47/62) 76%
- 2nd serve points won (21/39) 54%
- Aces 8 (1 second serve), Service Winners 2
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (28/101) 28%

- 1st serve percentage (57/98) 58%
- 1st serve points won (41/57) 72%
- 2nd serve points won (15/41) 37%
- Aces 6, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (24/98) 24%

Serve Pattern
Djokovic served...
- to FH 33%
- to BH 64%
- to Body 3%

Federer served...
- to FH 41%
- to BH 55%
- to Body 4%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 71 (31 FH, 40 BH)
- 17 Errors, comprising...
- 4 Unforced (2 FH, 2 BH)
- 13 Forced (5 FH, 8 BH)
- Return Rate (71/95) 75%

Federer made...
- 68 (22 FH, 46 BH), including 2 runaround FHs & 4 return-approaches
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 3 Unforced (2 FH, 1 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 15 Forced (6 FH, 9 BH)
- Return Rate (68/96) 71%

Break Points
Djokovic 5/13 (7 games)
Federer 2/10 (4 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Djokovic 16 (10 FH, 6 BH)
Federer 22 (7 FH, 2 BH, 3 FHV, 2 BHV, 7 OH, 1 BHOH)

Djokovic's FHs - 5 cc (1 pass, 1 at net), 2 inside-out (1 at net), 2 inside-in and 1 longline
- BHs - 3 cc (2 passes), 2 dtl and 1 running-down-drop-shot cc at net

Federer's FHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl, 1 inside-out, 2 inside-in, 1 longline and 1 drop shot
- BHs - 1 cc return and 1 dtl

- 4 from serve-volley points -
- 3 first volleys (2 FHV, 1 OH)
- 1 second volley (1 OH)

- 1 from return-approach point, a BHOH, that was not a smash

- 1 other FHV was a swinging shot

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Djokovic 38
- 26 Unforced (8 FH, 17 BH, 1 BHV)
- 12 Forced (7 FH, 5 BH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.2

Federer 63
- 44 Unforced (28 FH, 11 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV, 2 OH)... the FHV was a swinging, non-net shot
- 19 Forced (9 FH, 6 BH, 3 BHV, 1 BHV1/2V)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.4

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 7/10 (70%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve
- 1/3 (33%) forced back/retreated

Federer was...
- 20/30 (67%) at net, including...
- 7/13 (54%) serve-volleying, comprising..
- 7/10 (70%) off 1st serve and...
- 0/3 off 2nd serve
- 2/4 (50%) return-approaching

Match Report
Not a good match and one where Djokovic is sizably the better player - he both plays well and Federer the opposite. Djokovic's returning is the highlight of the match with Fed's looseness of the ground the other big factor in the result

Fed winning 37% 2nd serve points and making 44 unforced errors (including 28 off the FH - 2 more than Djoko's total) are keys to match

Serve & Return
Very good serving from both players. Djokovic's stands out for being a step up from his norm

It hasn't come out in basic numbers, compared to the '14 match. Djokovic has same number of aces (8), 1 more service winner, same number of double faults (5) , just 2% increase in unreturned serves and same 76% 1st serve points won

The difference is in the type of errors he draws. In '14, Fed had 7 unforced and 9 forced return errors. Here, its 3 and 15 respectively. Djoko starts the match winning his first 19 1st serve points. His serve is a handful and Fed is rushed or moved around by it significantly more than the '14 match

Improvements to Djoko's second serve are also noticeable. Its hefty enough to make attacking it awkward. In '14 and many of the pair's matches, I would discredit Fed for not finding a way to attack it. Here, he I would credit him if he pulled it off (which he doesn't)

5 doubles for Djoko and they come at bad times. He serves 3 in the tiebreak and 1 to bring up what turned out to be the last point in the game he was broken in the third set. Looks like a bad attack of nerves. Djoko's hand is shaking like a leaf at the changeover after losing the tiebreak

Fed serves with his customary quality but Djoko is exceptionally good on return. Fed's serving - including 2nds - are potentially damaging. Djoko rarely has time to swing at or swat balls as he likes to but is left blocking them on the stretch. Not only does he still get 75% back in play but still manages to send them back troublingly deep and flat

Again, it hasn't come out in the stats - other than via hints from Feds low second serve points won - but outstanding returning from Djoko. Against Fed's serving performance, I would have expected fewer returns made and more weak, short ones that Fed could wade into with FHs. Instead, balls come back deep and reasonably quickly (not looped) from defensive positions. Very little scope for Fed to collar third ball, even when the serve has opened the court

Strategy & Play - Baseline & Net & Strategy
Rallies are short and Federer has 44 UEs - double his 22 winners. Terrible as that is (and looks), its at least understandable

Note Federer with just 11 BH UEs, 6 less than Djokovic. A common problem for Fed is having his BH beaten down or outlasted by Djoko's heavier and more consistent BH cc's

A playing dynamic of Djoko leading with BHs would likely end just as thoroughly in Djoko's favour as what actually transpires, with little prospect of Fed gaining any counter-play

Instead, Fed opts to go for attacking shots from regulation positions with the FH from duel winged dynamics, without letting Djoko get into a BH rallying groove

It fails badly, as 28 FH errors and 44 UEs total aptly shows. Note also Fed's high 48.4 UEFI... he has 15 winner attempts misses and 34% of his UEs are of that ultimate aggressive type. By contrast, Djoko has 6 or 23%. Nor do these would-be winners come out of solid foundations... there's a high lot of wild ones from regulation positions

At least this way, there's a chance of low percentage attacks coming off. Is that worse than being beaten down BH-BH?

Poor play from Fed, not necessarily bad thinking

Fed also comes to net regularly, to good effect, winning 67% there. Its not easy manufacturing an approach because Djoko's usually in charge from the back - and he's very good in the depth and heaviness of his neutral shots, especially the FH. More than that, he's very good hitting from defensive positions too. And passes superbly. 30 approaches from Fed (Djoko has 10), including 13 serve-volleys and 4 chip-charge returns

Excellent footwork and good footspeed from the loser to. He's mostly in 'twinkly' feet mode, while Djoko has the odd lead-footed miss. Its consistency of shot that lets him down - not getting into position.

Though limited from shining by Fed making errors early, Djoko's very good off the ground. heavy hitting and deep neutral shots are his norm. If Fed's particularly poor, Djoko is the opposite.... his play is in line with the standard Djokovic high percentage, rolling over opponents style. The BH is loose in parts, but deadly to approach to. Even off balance, he hits some terrific passes

Match Progression
Djokovic pressures Fed throughout the first set, while Fed is error prone going for attacking shots. The break comes in game 4, with Djoko hitting a dipping BH cc pass while stretched wide to force a volleying error

A poor game by Fed gives Djoko the break in the second. Fed has break points in game either side of it - the first on back of his attacking play (which Djoko serves his way out of), the second with Djoko making 3 bad errors, completely out of line with the way he was playing (Djoko again serves away trouble, before Fed misses consecutive BH dtl winner attempts)

Aggresive play from Fed - a silky FH dtl winner after forcing Djoko back from net, followed by a chip-charge return that leads to a BHOH winner - puts Djoko under pressure. He double faults and misses a makeable FH to give back the break

Djoko's comfortably placed at 5-3 in tiebreak, despite a double fault, that's been compensated for by Fed missing a swinging FHV and a tricky OH. Djoko though, double faults twice in a row and Fed pinches the set

Players trade breaks early in the third. Fed breaks in a scratchy 16 point game, featuring one of best shots of the match, a BH running-down-drop-shot finely angled cc winner by Djoko against an at net Fed

Djoko wins the last 3 games of the match, including 2 breaks. In first of the breaks, there are 2 super shots - Fed BHV winner to a low, wide, hard hit pass and Djoko powerfully blocking a strong wide second serve on a point he goes on to win. Fed double faults on break point. Fed's broken to give up the match with a shanked third ball FH and a third ball FH inside-in winner attempt error at tail end of game

Summing up, short of a standard high quality Djokovic machine-like showing by rattled errors and spurt of double faults, but tough and impressive still with strong serving and excellent returning against very good serving. Fed's no match from the baseline and opts for a high risk approach from the back and has far too few moments with it

Stats for pair's Wimbledon final later in the year - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...kovic-vs-federer-wimbledon-final-2015.660488/