Duel Match Stats/Reports - Djokovic vs Nadal, Beijing Finals, 2013 & 2015

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Novak Djokovic beat Rafael Nadal 6-3, 6-4 in the Beijing final, 2013 on hard court

Djokovic was the defending champion and would go onto win the next 2 years also. The 2 had recently played the US Open final (Nadal won) and would go onto play the Year End Championship final (Djokovic would win). Starting with this match, Djokovic would win his next 9 hard court matches in the rivalry without loss of set - a streak that is at present ongoing. With the result, Nadal returned to #1 in the world, replacing Djokovic

Djokovic won 62 points, Nadal 44

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (33/46) 72%
- 1st serve points won (30/33) 91%
- 2nd serve points won (10/13) 77%
- Aces 4, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (13/46) 28%

Nadal....
- 1st serve percentage (39/60) 65%
- 1st serve points won (31/39) 79%
- 2nd serve points won (7/21) 33%
- Aces 2
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (22/60) 37%

Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 44%
- to BH 56%

Nadal served...
- to FH 45%
- to BH 52%
- to Body 3%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 36 (13 FH, 23 BH)
- 20 Errors, comprising...
- 12 Unforced (11 FH, 1 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 8 Forced (4 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (36/58) 62%

Nadal made...
- 32 (10 FH, 22 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 8 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (4 FH, 1 BH)
- 3 Forced (2 FH, 1 BH)
- Return Rate (32/45) 71%

Break Points
Djokovic 2/4 (3 games)
Nadal 0

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 15 (9 FH, 3 BH, 1 FHV, 2 OH)
Nadal 7 (3 FH, 1 BH, 3 OH)

Djokovic's FHs - 2 cc, 2 dtl, 3 inside-out and 1 longline/inside-out
- BHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl and 1 drop shot

- 1 OH was on the bounce

Nadal's FHs - 3 inside-out
- BH - 1 dtl

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 14
- 13 Unforced (7 FH, 5 BH, 1 BHV)
- 1 Forced (1 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 49.2

Nadal 32
- 25 Unforced (15 FH, 10 BH)
- 7 Forced (4 FH, 3 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 5/7 (71%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve

Nadal was 3/4 (75%) at net

Match Report
Typical, strongly solid showing from Djokovic and more than that, Nadal playing awfully on a fast court. There's scarcely a thing Nadal does so little as averagely

25 unforced errors from Nadal to Djokovic's 13. Djoko occasionally outdoes Nadal in this, the latter's stronghold, but never to this extent. Nadal has 15 UEs of FH alone
Is he being very aggressive and failing? No. His UEFI is low 44 and 19/25 of his errors are neutral shots. To compare, 4/13 of Djoko's are at very high UEFI of 49.2
Is Djoko just so rock solid that it falls to Nadal to blink first? No
Are rallies long and hard fought? No, they're on short side (which is as should be on fast court)
Note also Nadal forcing a grand total of 1 error out of Djokovic, a running BH late in the match. This is in minority part to Djoko being strong in defence. He's not put on defence often, but when he does, hits firmly on the run. The only match I know of with a player forcing 0 errors out of is Alex Zverev in 2017 Halle final

The only mitigating factor in Nadal's high error rate is Djoko hitting firm and deep regulation shots. A tricky proposition to be up against - but not to the extent of Nadal's showing. His baseline play is like someone having their first hit on a fast court after wrapping up clay season and is regularly found rushed playing regulation shots (admittedly, against particularly well hit ones, as is Djoko's way)

Djoko skates through his service games and serves exceptionally well. 72% first serves in is excellent but serves are not well placed, mostly in Nadal's swing zone. 5/8 Nadal return errors have been marked unforced, 4 of them FHs, which tends to be his looser wing when not playing well

91% first serve points won though is a flatteringly high figure. You usually see a number like that when there's a huge load of unreturned serves and/or aces, or bare minimum, serve draws such weak returns that server can dispatch the third ball. That's not true here. 28% unreturned rate is low for such a court and rarely does Djoko finish points at once. Normal serve, normal Nadal return... few groundstrokes exchanged with Djoko hitting firmly and deep, and Nadal gives up the error is how most points go down. This is even more so on Djoko's second serve points, which he wins 77%. 0 break points for Nadal

To be clear, Djoko does attack impressively too. As the harder hitter in neutral rallies, he's able to switch to hitting wider shots to semi-open the court and hit into it. Nadal's defence is also off and by his standard, its not too difficult to force an error out of him. In stark contrast to Djoko, who's excellent on the move (and doesn't often have to). 15 winners, forcing 7 errors, making 13 UEs are good numbers from Djoko. 25 UEs from Nadal is more eyecatching, but good stuff from Djokovic; his scope to shine is limited by Nadal's weak play

The one impressive stat for Nadal is large 37% unreturned rate. Djoko is somewhat loose on his FH return, which makes 15 of his 20 return errors (11 of them unforced). He also phones it in a bit toward the end. From 3-1 up in second set and having held with utter ease throughout match (and as it turns out, for rest of it too), Djoko misses 9 returns in last 14 points he receives. Including 7/8 in consecutive love holds by Nadal. He appears to be tanking the games. Just 2 aces among the 22 unreturned serves is fair indictor of Nadal's serve not being overly strong, despite the high unreturned rate

When Djoko is bending his back to return, he does so with customary authority, deep and firm. And play follows as described earlier

Match Progression
Djokovic breaks to go up 2-0 to start the match. 3 UEs from Nadal as he's broken with Djoko chucking in a FH cc winner. Djoko skates through his service games, losing 2 points in 5 games and at one stage, winning 14 successive service points. Nadal holds comfortably too but can't make a dent on return

Djoko breaks to go up 2-0 again to start the second set. He breaks Nadal in 12 point game, calmly holds to love in about a minute and then takes Nadal to another 12 point game, where 2 break points are saved

After that, Djoko semi-tanks return games, while continuing to hold with ease. Between end of first set and through start of second set, he has another impressive run of 12 straight service games won. In fact, his 2 streaks are separated by 1 point - so at one stage, he wins 26/27 service points in a row

Nadal plays better in second set. He keeps ball in play longer and occasionally manages to be in position to attack. Djoko's able to resist mild attacks and Nadal misses his FH dtl's, so it doesn't come to much. That this represents an improvement says more about how poor he was in first set than anything else

Djoko finishes the match serving out to love - opening the game with his sole serve-volley point in which he deals with an awkward high BHV and finishing it with his sole service winner

Summing up, good showing from Djokovic in his best, mechanically efficient, rolling over opponent style - choice firm returning, characteristic firm and deep groundies, good hitting on the run and successful transition to genuine attack when he chooses. More than that, very poor from Nadal, who struggles to keep the ball in court

Stats for pair's US Open final - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...-nadal-vs-djokovic-us-open-final-2013.633492/
Stats for pair's YEC final - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...adal-year-end-championship-final-2013.657153/
Stats for '17 Halle final between Alex Zverev and Roger Federer - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...-federer-vs-a-zverev-halle-final-2017.674794/
 
Last edited:
In 2015, Djokovic beat Nadal 6-2, 6-2 in the final

It was Djokovic's 6th title and 4th in a row at the event. He had recently won the US Open and would go onto win the YEC, beating Nadal in the semis

Djokovic won 62 points, Nadal 43

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (47/57) 82%
- 1st serve points won (33/47) 70%
- 2nd serve points won (5/10) 50%
- Aces 7
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (13/57) 23%

Nadal....
- 1st serve percentage (34/48) 71%
- 1st serve points won (19/34) 56%
- 2nd serve points won (5/14) 36%
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (11/48) 23%

Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 40%
- to BH 60%

Nadal served...
- to FH 38%
- to BH 53%
- to Body 9%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 36 (15 FH, 21 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (6 FH, 1 BH)
- 4 Forced (2 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (36/47) 77%

Nadal made...
- 44 (14 FH, 30 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 6 Errors, comprising...
- 2 Unforced (2 FH)
- 4 Forced (2 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (44/57) 77%

Break Points
Djokovic 4/5 (4 games)
Nadal 0/2 (1 game)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 16 (6 FH, 5 BH, 3 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Nadal 7 (4 FH, 3 BH)

Djokovic's FHs - 2 cc, 1 dtl pass, 2 inside-out and 1 inside-in
- BHs - 3 cc, 1 dtl and 1 running-down-drop-shot cc at net

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a first volley BHV
- 2 FHVs were played from no-man's land and not net points - a swinging shot and a lob

Nadal's FHs - 3 dtl (1 pass) and 1 inside-out return
- BH - 2 cc (1 pass) and 1 dtl

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 25
- 20 Unforced (12 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV)
- 5 Forced (2 FH, 1 BH, 2 FHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.5

Nadal 32
- 20 Unforced (14 FH, 5 BH, 1 BHV)
- 12 Forced (7 FH, 4 BH, 1 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 43

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 7/14 (50%) at net, including...
- 2/3 (67%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves

Nadal was...
- 0/6 (0%) at net, with...
- 0/1 forced back

Match Report
Meat and potatoes baseline match and Djokovic is clinical of play and just better in all areas. Nadal plays decently too and the 2 & 2 scoreline is a bit harsh on him. Djoko endures several long service games and ends up serving 54% of the points in the match. Court is normal paced, significantly less quick than 2013

Its a simple match to describe and well captured by stats

0) Unreturned rates low and equal 23%
1) 20 UEs apiece. Looks even. Given its a baseline match, Djoko with negligible edge - baseline UEs read Djoko 17, Nadal 19

2) UEFI - Djoko highish 47.5, Nadal low 43... they're making errors at same rate, but...
a) Djoko's dictating play. Advantage him... the more passive player would need the dictator to be making more UEs)
b) Nadal's making more neutral errors. Advantage Djoko... neutral play is Nadal's field and he's not even winning there. He has 15 neutral UEs, Djoko 10

3) Winners - Djoko with large 16-7 advantage. what you'd expect looking at UEFI's
4) Forced errors - Djoko forces 12, Nadal just 5. same deal as winners

Putting it all together, there's no area Nadal is coming up ahead

Play is almost all baseline stuff and based on neutral play. Djoko is more slightly more consistent while hitting harder and deeper. Depth is the real key to effectiveness of his shots. Nadal's balls are normal, if not short, Djoko's are typically deep. With rallies going on for awhile, sooner rather than later, he gets them deeper still right on Nadal's baseline. And his shots are flatter, Nadal's being characteristically loopy

That's just the neutral dynamic. From it, Djoko can shift to attacking moderately more readily. More often than not, he sticks to neutral. Why would he change? He's winning the who-blinks-first battles and is the bossier hitter. As such, onus would be on Nadal to attack more, but he rarely does in general and this match is no exception. Furthermore, even he wanted to, it would be very difficult against Djoko's deep, clean regulation balls

When Djoko does slip it up a gear, its done seamlessly. hits a bit wider and steps in to court more to hit... and now Nadal's on defensive. He struggles to reach wide, hard hit shots

To complete picture of play from Djoko's point of view, he's outstanding in defence. Nadal does take up attack more often than has come out in stats, but it comes to nothing. Djoko runs down balls and hits them on the run. Shots from defensive positions occasionally gives him control of points and at least, keeps Nadal winning them. Lack of Djoko FEs is as much about his resisting making them as it is Nadal's attacks being weak

Djoko with advantage on both attacking and defending fronts. His attacking shots are harder hit and deeper, making them tougher to defend against - and Nadal usually can't. And he's able to thwart Nadal's. He does appear to be the faster of footspeed

Nadal plays decently, unlike in '13. Rallies are long and he's steady. Not quite never-miss-a-ball consistent, but steady enough to be called solid and hitting heavy enough to be not easy to attack. Other matches where he's gone down badly feature flat play from him. Not here. He's not damaging, but his basic solidity is sound

Nadal hits BHs exceptionally well. The FH though isn't damaging. He's unable to move around to hit inside-out and anything cc is hit back with interest. dtl is last line of attack and he misses as often as not going for it

Both players serves have improved since '13. Nadal's is powerful though conservatively placed. Djoko returns firmly and deep, not particularly bothered by the extra pace. Djoko serves at very high 82% first serves in without holding back. His power is about the same as Nadal and he throws in more wide sliced serves and looking for lines more and more as match goes on. Excellent consistency on return by Nadal - he makes only 6 errors, while Djoko serves 7 aces

Match Progression
Djokovic starts by breaking to 15, drawing FH errors and knocking away a BH dtl winner. Rest of set is tough. Djoko survives 10 and 8 point games, saving 2 break points along the way and breaks late in a 10 point game to make set look more comfortable than it was. He is better player for set, but not by too much

Couple of memorable plays. Djoko pulls off a perfectly placed, BH running-down-drop-shot cc at net for a winner. On another point, he drop shots Nadal in, lob volleys the rejoinder, Nadal tweeners the lob from the back and Djoko finishes with an OH winner

Second set isn't too easy either, though Djoko doesn't face break points. Other than when being aced 6 times, Nadal makes every return and rallies are not short

There's another drop shot + FHV lob 1-2 by Djoko, this time the second shot going for a winner and couple of perfect BH cc winners. The two trade highly unlikely winners in consecutive points - Nadal making a running, full stretched FH dtl pass and next point, Djoko FHV to hard hit, wide and low ball

Deep returning by Djoko regularly gives him small initiative to start rallies in return games, while Nadal's returns leave him with the same on service games. Nadal is more secure in his shots in the set too. In all, a better set than the first - Djoko serving better, Nadal more consistent off both serve and groundstrokes. Djoko's able to take charge of points when needed though and again take it with 2 breaks

Summing up, good example of Djokovic in clinical mode. He hits consistently hard and deep off both wings and either direction as stock shots, transitions seamlessly to attacking and is excellent in defence. Nadal plays decently but with less pressuring force and no damaging weapons. Djokovic significantly better player and master of the court

Stats for pair's YEC semi - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...p-final-semi-final-2015.657245/#post-13873983
Stats for pair's '16 Doha final - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...ort-djokovic-vs-nadal-doha-final-2016.661677/
 
Back
Top