Duel Match Stats/Reports - Djokovic vs Nadal, Indian Wells semi-finals, 2008 & 2016

[Waspsting]

Novak Djokovic beat Rafael Nadal 6-3, 6-2 in the Indian Wells semi-final, 2008 on hard court

Djokovic, who had recently won his first Slam at the Australian Open, would go onto win the his first title at the event, beating Mardy Fish in the final. Nadal was the defending champion, having beaten Djokovic in the final the previous year

Djokovic won 61 points, Nadal 40

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (31/50) 62%
- 1st serve points won (25/31) 81%
- 2nd serve points won (11/19) 58%
- Aces 8
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (18/50) 36%

Nadal....
- 1st serve percentage (31/51) 61%
- 1st serve points won (18/31) 58%
- 2nd serve points won (8/20) 40%
- Aces 2, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (6/51) 12%

Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 36%
- to BH 62%
- to Body 2%

Nadal served...
- to FH 27%
- to BH 73%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 43 (14 FH, 29 BH), including 4 runaround FHs
- 3 Errors, all unforced...
- 3 Unforced (1 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (43/49) 88%

Nadal made...
- 32 (14 FH, 18 BH), including 6 runaround FHs
- 10 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (3 FH, 4 BH)
- 3 Forced (3 FH)
- Return Rate (32/50) 64%

Break Points
Djokovic 4/7 (4 games)
Nadal 1/3 (2 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 12 (6 FH, 5 BH, 1 BHV)
Nadal 6 (6 FH)

Djokovic's FHs - 1 dtl, 5 inside-out
- BHs - 3 cc, 2 dtl (1 pass)

Nadal's FHs - 2 cc (1 with Djokovic on the floor), 1 dtl, 1 inside-out, 1 longline/inside-out, 1 running-down-drop-shot drop shot at net

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 28
- 17 Unforced (13 FH, 4 BH)
- 11 Forced (5 FH, 4 BH, 2 BHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 49.4

Nadal 29
- 19 Unforced (11 FH, 8 BH)
- 10 Forced (4 FH, 6 BH)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 50

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 7/10 (70%) at net, including...
- 0/1 serve-volleying, a 2nd serve
---
- 1/1 forced back

Nadal was...
- 4/7 (57%) at net, with...
- 0/1 forced back

Match Report
Nothing to fear for Djokovic as he rolls over a harmless Nadal on a slow-ish court

Baseline action, with staple cc rallies. And Nadal has nothing on Djoko. Nadal’s FH cc’s are readily met by harder hit, earlier taken BHs, which Djoko can go either way with. Djoko FH cc is more powerful than Nadal BH cc. Djoko plays a little further up the court than Nadal, who at least, doesn’t fall back but does keep a conservative, 2-3 paces behind baseline to rally

What that means is, stock rallies aren’t drawing weak/short balls from Djoko. While Nadal, if not hitting short, has a natural tendency to drop one shorter sooner or later, with his high net clearing, top spinny balls, especially the FHs. They get up, but Djoko’s up to handling the chest high ball and thumps them same way he does anything else

Might be something in it for Nadal if he’s the more secure one. He isn’t. Both players with 8 neutral UEs - a loss for the lesser hitter, who’d need to get something out of that contest to compensate for his losses in court position and chances to attack

Particularly impressive from Djoko is the BH. If its expected for a BH to be outgunned against a FH, his not only isn’t, but is the one that’s doing the outgunning. Not in a overpower way, but in changing to longline, while always the firmer shot

Its not just about looking good, as so many BHs up against Nadal’s FH don’t. Its by far most secure shot on show, with match low 4 UEs (the rest have 8, 11 and 13 respectively)

In time, Nadal turns to look for more aggressive FHs. dtl to start (Djoko’s BH is firm enough that Nadal has to move to ad court to take it on in cc rallies, not sit near center from where dtl isn’t a viable option). Some success, some misses so doing. Later on, back-away inside-outs. Mostly misses - he’s rushed to move around, not in command as he tends to be after drawing weak balls to play his favourite attacking piece

He even goes for the odd BH dtl winner. All misses, literally. All of Nadal’s winners are FHs

Nadal with 8 winner attempt UEs to 6 winners, with little that’s readily there to be attacked. Not his most patient, or grittiest showing as he foregoes option of grinding things out that much harder and shifts to attacking against balls not readily there for it instead. And not good doing what he chooses to either

Djoko misses some some crazy FH inside-out winner attempts at start, the kind of dumb thing you don’t see him doing anymore. Eventually, it comes good. He ends with 5 such winners, most of them not the low percentage type stuff he was missing, but about not obvious putaway balls either

BHs effectiveness isn’t limited to steadiness, let alone looking good. It has 5 winners - 1 shy of Nadal all FH total and only shot with more winners than UEs. As 3 in most basic cc direction implies, he’s really taken charge of play with the BH. Among the cc winners is one where he drops his racquet while making a neutral shot, picks it up as Nadal’s dealing with the ball and goes on to win the point with said BH cc winner

Similar numbers for the two players in many areas, and it’s the Djoko BH that gives him advantage

UEs - Djoko 17, Nadal 19 (with Djoko BH having just 4 - half of Nadal’s and about a third of both players FHs)
FEs - Djoko 11, Nadal 10 (good job by Nadal to stay even on this front, given he’s considerably less often on front foot)
Winners - Djoko 12, Nadal 6 (FHs are equal at 6, overall gap is made up by Djoko’s 5 BHs and solitary volley)

UE breakdown almost identical -
- Neutral - both 8
- Attacking - Djoko 2, Nadal 3
- Winner attempts - Djoko 7, Nadal 8

Neither doing well on winner attempts. Djoko’s misses are clusterd at start, when he’s wild with his FH. Nadal’s pick up as he goes for more kill shots, seeing the neutral rallying isnt’ going anywhere for him. Largely due to sturdiness of Djoko’s BH

Foundation, neutral error equality favours Djoko, given match-up

Though not good, nothing dramatically bad about Nadal’s showing.The area where he is poor is the return

Return rates - Djoko 88%, Nadal 64%
It’s a slow court and 36% unreturneds from Djoko is much too high from Nadal’s point of view, well as Djoko serves

7/10 Nadal return errors have been marked UEs. 3-4 of Djoko’s aces come as Nadal’s given up on the game - he doesn’t move much for the 2 Djoko sends down in serving out the first set, or the 1 in final game of match

Djoko by contrast misses next to nothing. Just 3 return errors, all UEs. He does face a few tough ones - particularly surprise ones to his FH (Nadal serves 73% to BH), but they all come back. Djoko’s return starts and remains at least decently hefty. Towards end, creeping up to damagingly deep

Djoko has better (faster and wider placed) serve and with that to help, returns more solidly. Nadal’s returns tend to plopped balls, not deep if not outright short. Fairly normal for him

 

[Waspsting]

Match Progresion
Players trade breaks starting at 1-1. Nadal goes first in an error ridden game, with Djoko missing some wild FHs

Djoko carries on where he left of next game by missing another unlikely dtl’ish FH winner attempt, but strikes a fine BH dtl winner against high ball next point. Its Nadal’s BH that’s grinded down from there, before he misses an aggressive, third ball inside-in FH on break point

Djoko crowd net following game to hold. Its on third point when he drops his racquet - he’d been to net and forced back from there earlier in rally - picks it up and goes on to strike a BH cc winner

Tough 10 point game gets the decisive break, with a bit of luck involved. Net chord dribbler from Djoko finally forces the final error to make things 5-3

Nadal sits down at end of game and asks for the trainer. Chair tells him that would be unfair as Nadal’s completed his service game and will delay Djoko serving for the match and sends him back out. Nadal doesn’t move much for returns as Djoko serves out to 15 and has his foot looked at in the break between sets

Nadal’s 1st serve is called out on game point in first game of second set, but Djoko grants him an ace without any signs of Nadal being about to challenge

Good, 10 point game as Djoko holds for 2-2, starting with an excellent 3rd ball BH cc winner and involving Nadal bossing middle of game with his FH. Particularly good point where Nadal’s run around, but comes away with a momentum changing FH and wins the rally with a powerful FH inside-out. That brings up only break point of game, where Nadal mishits a BH, before Djoko goes on to hold

All Djoko from then on. Poor game by Nadal to be broken to 15 (3 winner attempts UEs - 2 FH inside-outs and a BH dtl)

Good, 10 point game for the final break, with Nadal scampering about with full effort. Rallies are tough, and Nadal turns to offence, unable to grind out an advantage. Pick of the 5 winners is a Nadal running-down-drop-shot drop shot winner at net that gives him A-40. It’s the last point he wins in the game. On break point, Nadal’s BH can’t find a way past Djoko’s FH, and he turns to a FH drop shot that he nets

Djoko serves out to 15, with Nadal missing a routine return to end it

Summing up, solid stuff from Djokovic leaves Nadal with no answers. Off both wings, Djokovic is a match trading groundstrokes, while keeping better court position, able to change directions with his BH better and untroubled by chest-high BHs. Unable to squeeze his opponent, Nadal goes in for edgy, attacking FH play, which falters more often than not. Djokovic has his share of aggressive FH faltering - some of his shot choices are wild - but BH is impressive in all ways - solidity, variety of direction, strength of hitting and shot-making/finishing

Add Nadal returning poorly in missing a lot of returns, as opposed to Djokovic being a rock on the second shot, with Djokovic having more potent serve to begin with, and result is one-sided

Stats for the final between Djokovic and Mardy Fish - Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Fish, Indian Wells final, 2008 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)

 

[Kralingen]

Djokovic was definitely better than Nadal from NA HC season 07-clay season 08

And then 2008 Claydal happened and restored order

 

[Gizo]

I remember there was a point early on during the 1st set, in which Djokovic dropped his racket but still won it.

Nadal's backhand slice really improved noticeably during the Indian Wells-Miami swing in 2008, giving him more variety, especially with Wimbledon in mind.

 

[Lauren_Girl']

One of the (too) many Djokodal forgotten matches. I rewatched this one a few weeks ago. first time Djokovic really mopped the floor with him. He'd beaten him in Miami and Montreal 2007 but this one was even more one-sided. The quarterfinal against Wawrinka and the final against Fish were pretty good too.

 

[RS]

Djokovic was definitely better than Nadal from NA HC season 07-clay season 08

And then 2008 Claydal happened and restored order

Nadal was better from IW 07 to Wim 07. Djokovic after that till clay 08.

 

[Waspsting]

Djokovic beat Nadal 7-6(5), 6-2 in the Indian Wells semi-final, 2016

Djokovic would go onto win his third title in a row and then standalone record 5th title, beating Milos Raonic in the final. Nadal was seeded 4th

Djokovic won 83 points, Nadal 70

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (42/60) 70%
- 1st serve points won (30/42) 71%
- 2nd serve points won (11/18) 61%
- Aces 2
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (15/60) 25%

Nadal....
- 1st serve percentage (75/93) 81%
- 1st serve points won (41/75) 55%
- 2nd serve points won (10/18) 56%
- Aces 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (21/93) 23%

Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 39%
- to BH 58%
- to Body 4%

Nadal served...
- to FH 26%
- to BH 59%
- to Body 15%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 72 (35 FH, 37 BH), including 7 runaround FHs & 1 return-approach
- 2 Winners (2 FH)
- 19 Errors, comprising...
- 16 Unforced (4 FH, 12 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 3 Forced (3 FH)
- Return Rate (72/93) 77%

Nadal made...
- 42 (16 FH, 26 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 13 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (6 FH, 3 BH)
- 4 Forced (1 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (42/57) 74%

Break Points
Djokovic 3/12 (5 games)
Nadal 1/2 (2 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 21 (12 FH, 7 BH, 2 FHV)
Nadal 10 (7 FH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)

Djokovic's FHs - 1 cc pass at net, 4 dtl (2 returns), 1 dtl/inside-out, 1 dtl/lob, 2 inside-out, 1 inside-out/dtl, 1 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc
- BHs - 2 cc, 4 dtl, 1 drop shot

- 1 from a return-approach point, a FHV

Nadal's FHs - 1 cc, 4 dtl (1 pass), 2 inside-out

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 36
- 25 Unforced (12 FH, 13 BH)
- 11 Forced (7 FH, 3 BH, 1 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 43.6

Nadal 47
- 32 Unforced (16 FH, 15 BH, 1 OH)
- 15 Forced (7 FH, 6 BH, 1 FH1/2V, 1 Over-the-Shoulder)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.6

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 9/12 (75%) at net, including...
- 0/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve
---
- 1/1 return-approaching
- / forced back

Nadal was...
- 7/15 (47%) at net, with...
- 0/2 forced back/retreated

Match Report
Nadal holds even with Djokovic for a set by staying steady and hitting well from the back, before his hitting strength drops, and then, Djokovic does what he wants with him, a’le the ‘08 match. Court seems a bit faster than the earlier match though still slow

In competitive first set, Nadal’s able to stay steady, consistent to match Djoko. He has a hard time progressing beyond that to attacking. Seems like he’s strained to just stay even consistency wise without giving up ground on hitting force. Djoko by contrast seems to be in controlled third gear mode during the even part of the match - and as soon as Nadal’s hitting drops, so does Djoko’s hammer on his head

Out and out aggression would be outside Nadal’s comfort zone, which generally stretches as far as bossily controlling, and moving to attack from there. He can’t ‘control’ rallies, much less ‘bossily’ against Djokovic. Just staying even in them on error front with control shared evenly between two players is as far as Nadal gets. To up things to attacking from there would require risky plays and shot-making

He tries. Looks to take a few balls early off FH, or goes for the point ending shot against deep balls. Looks to whack a few BHs extra hard cc. Even rarely steps in to take returns from inside baseline, looking for an Agassi like booming return to end point. I can’t think of any other match where I’ve seen Nadal look to return in such a way (to be clear, its rare, 3-6 times in the whole match). Its doable too, because Djoko doesn’t serve powerfully

Fails at it most of the time. Not too surprising as its beyond his usual comfort zone, but that’s what he’d need to pull off to pull ahead of the clinical machine at the other end, that attacks after gaining hitting advantage, and can match good hitting without any apparent strain

Serve & Return
Both players virtually serve 2 second serves. Nadal directs large 15% to the body and a good deal more crampingly close. Its something he was toying with around this period and isn’t a surprise to Djoko, who’d faced 19% to the body in the pair’s Year End Championship semi not long ago

As good or bad as any way to serve to Djoko on slow court and at such pace. Pace of Nadal’s serve is that Djoko spontatneously runsaround to play FHs to first serves. He’s on look out for it against the body serves, but doesn’t premeditate it, but just has that much time

The two-second-serves nature of serving by both players comes through in basic stats -
1st serve points won - Djoko 71%, Nadal 55%
2nd serve points won - Djoko 61%, Nadal 56%

… sans 3 double faults, Djoko’s second serve points won 73%, while Nadal has no double faults. Both serve at large in counts - Djoko 70%, Nadal 81%. Harmless serving by both players, of pace and placement

16/19 of Djoko and 9/13 of Nadal’s return errors have been marked UEs. Return rates are good (Djoko 77%, Nadal 74%), but scope for both, particularly Djoko to do better. Theoretically, no reason to miss any returns at all. Practically, that’s not feasible, but 80%+ return rates is on the cards against what’s on show. 90% would be a good number and in that regard, neither returns well. No great weight behind the returns either - about Nadal’s norm, and below personal par for Djoko

Play - Baseline
In first set, depth and force of stock shots are close to equal (as it wasn’t in ‘08) and with serve-return almost non-factor, its consistency and movement that’s tested. Fair bit of moving-opponent around play sprinkled into staple cc exchanges, with the two doing about the same amount of running. Both are able to reach balls on fun and make a few ‘gets’, usually going onto lose the point later on

No significant difference in Nadal’s footspeed from ‘08. If anything, he gets more chance to showcase his running here and it comes off more impressive. Maybe a bad day in ‘08 because he was certainly a lot quicker in general in that period than even 2-3 years later, let alone 8. Djoko’s about as quick as Nadal, and he didn’t’ have much running to do in ‘08. His short range movement in ‘08 had greater alacrity, which is another way of saying less efficiency

Of hitting, Nadal’s first set showing is categorically better than the soft, loopy stuff of ‘08, though it descends to that level in set 2. Djoko is more controlled and easier of shot, less muscling with it which probably reflects on relative pace of surface as well as changes to his game over the years

Djoko still dangerous of both wings, Nadal still just the FH. Again, 0 BH winners for him

 

[Waspsting]

Winners - Djoko 21, Nadal 10
Errors forced - Djoko 15, Nadal 11
UEs - Djoko 25, Nadal 32

UEs are front and center of action, especially in competitive first set. They’re breakdown -
- Neutral - Djoko 18, Nadal 20
- Attacking - Djoko 5, Nadal 6
- Winner attempts - Djoko 2, Nadal 6

… similar to previous match in equality along first two, but the gap is even bigger in winner attempts here. Nadal with 10 winner for 6 errors trying is reflection of his being unable to construct points, needing to take risks, trying but failing at it. Djoko’s immaculate on that front. Bulk of his winners come in set 2, which he builds up to perfectly, there’s not much shot-making (that is, going for winners from normal positions or risky shots) in his play

Broken down by set -
1st set
Djoko 9 winners, 13 UEs, 7 FEs
Nadal 8 winners, 18 UEs, 8 FEs

2nd set
Djoko 12 winners, 12 UEs, 4 FEs
Nadal 2 winners, 14 UEs, 7 FEs

Shift in Djoko’s BH numbers is main difference between sets. In first set, it has 1 winner, 8 UEs. In second 6 winners, 5 UEs - very similar to match long figure from ‘08. And key to that shift is force of Nadal’s FH dropping across sets - it’s a match for any shot out there in the first, and drops to put-ball-in-play standard in second, freeing up Djoko’s BH to command and control

The 5 UE difference in first set from Nadal in first set is divided across error type - he’s -3 neutral errors (as in, he has more) and -2 attacking/winner attempt ones

That’s an even set - Nadal has set point returning just prior to tiebreak, and it’s the more aggressive errors at crunch time, including tiebreak, that keeps him from getting ahead (with 1 or 2 failed aggressive returns thrown in)

Match Progression
Harmless serving, pretty sure returning and staple, neutral rallies mark the first set. Djoko hits clinically and cleanly (not with muscling power like ‘08), Nadal matches him for force and depth (significant step up from ‘08)

Ground consistency and movement are the things to be tested and honours are even. Going into ‘breaker (1 break each), Djoko’s served 34 points, Nadal 41. That difference is all down to outlier 14 point for Nadal. Djoko’s only deuce game is 8 points

Break points read Djoko 1/3, Nadal 1/2 (both of them having them in 2 games). Nadal’s second break point is also a set point at 5-4

Two trade breaks early starting at 1-0. Djoko double faulting twice in a row opens door and Nadal screams through with an error forcingly powerful BH cc and dispatching a FH dtl from up the court to ball that had popped up off the net chord. Couple of BH UEs - 1 on the move and not too easy - from Nadal as he’s broken back, and a couple of big FHs from Djoko (dtl winner and error forcing inside-out) restores equality

Set continues evenly, amidst good rallies ending with errors and both players turning to FH for occasional offence. Nadal in particular pulls off a few top class FH winners, the pick of them a a short angled cc shot

Back to back FH winner (dtl return and inside-out) from Djoko gets him to 15-40 at 3-3. Misses a routine FH return he was trying to runaorund on on first break pint and Nadal takes net to put away a net chord clipping BHV winner. Game goes on for 14 points but no more break points. All 14 points are first serves ones - an indicator of how ineffective serving is in the match

Serving at 4-5, Djoko’s met with an unusually vigorous Nadal, stepping in and smacking balls on up. He serve-volleys for only time in match, but after making a stretch first volley that he has little option but to drop short, is forced back from net and Nadal dispatches OH to bring up break/set point

Commanding FH inside-out saves that, Nadal misses a second return from inside the court (very unusual for him), before Djoko takes charge with BH to finish at net and close the game

Would have been a perfect set of tennis from Nadal had he been able to close out the set - hanging even in orthodox baseline action all set, only to grab the break at end with a particularly aggressive game, but Djoko has an aggressive card or two up his sleeve too

Djoko misses 4 routine returns next game to lose it to love. 2 first serves, 2 seconds and game lasts a minute 45 seconds. Games of 4 unreturend serves usually take a minute 10 or so

The running FH winner Nadal starts the next game with is a facsimile of a famous one he’d play in the 2017 French Open final the following year. Nice drop shot in + lob winner combo by Djoko to close out the game

Tiebreak. Djoko’s never behind after Nadal loses opening point missing a routine FH. His missing edgy or aggressive FHs marks the game. Up 5-4 with two serves to come, Djoko hits a mild OH, which Nadal exploits to come away with the point and put things back on serve. Djoko pulls out another card from his sleeve - a very rare strong serve, to win the next point, before Nadal’s BH blinks to end the set

50-50 set that falls Djoko’s way. The second by contrast, is all him. He serves 20 points for 4 holds to Nadal’s 46 for 2 holds and 2 broken twice (the only short game is a break to 30

Action is Djoko readily taking command of baseline rallies and plying on pressure. Its excellent, point building tennis from him. Nadal’s FH strength dropping from previous set, allowing Djoko’s BH to shine (which it does aplenty) plays large part in change in dynamic

Few good points and shots. One worth mentioning is in final game, where Djoko runsaround a first serve to body area to firmly push return dtl and approach behind. Width catches Nadal out and Djoko’s left with a putaway FHV winner

Summing up, pretty good match with a 50-50 first set and Djokovic running away with the second. At best, Nadal’s able to stay even rallying with Djokovic by matching hitting strength and consistency, but struggles to advance to attacking beyond that, though making the needed effort

Djokovic is unstrained and comfortable when Nadal’s at best, and surges ahead with immaculate, point building baseline tennis as soon as Nadal’s hitting strength drops

Stats for the final between Djokovic and Milos Raonic - Duel Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Raonic & Djokovic vs Nishikori, Indian Wells & Miami finals, 2016 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)

 

[RS]

Nadal showed glimpses in 2016 before the break he could come back.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Djokovic beat Nadal 7-6(5), 6-2 in the Indian Wells semi-final, 2016

Djokovic would go onto win his third title in a row and then standalone record 5th title, beating Milos Raonic in the final. Nadal was seeded 4th

Djokovic won 83 points, Nadal 70

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (42/60) 70%
- 1st serve points won (30/42) 71%
- 2nd serve points won (11/18) 61%
- Aces 2
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (15/60) 25%

Nadal....
- 1st serve percentage (75/93) 81%
- 1st serve points won (41/75) 55%
- 2nd serve points won (10/18) 56%
- Aces 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (21/93) 23%

Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 39%
- to BH 58%
- to Body 4%

Nadal served...
- to FH 26%
- to BH 59%
- to Body 15%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 72 (35 FH, 37 BH), including 7 runaround FHs & 1 return-approach
- 2 Winners (2 FH)
- 19 Errors, comprising...
- 16 Unforced (4 FH, 12 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 3 Forced (3 FH)
- Return Rate (72/93) 77%

Nadal made...
- 42 (16 FH, 26 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 13 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (6 FH, 3 BH)
- 4 Forced (1 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (42/57) 74%

Break Points
Djokovic 3/12 (5 games)
Nadal 1/2 (2 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 21 (12 FH, 7 BH, 2 FHV)
Nadal 10 (7 FH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)

Djokovic's FHs - 1 cc pass at net, 4 dtl (2 returns), 1 dtl/inside-out, 1 dtl/lob, 2 inside-out, 1 inside-out/dtl, 1 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc
- BHs - 2 cc, 4 dtl, 1 drop shot

- 1 from a return-approach point, a FHV

Nadal's FHs - 1 cc, 4 dtl (1 pass), 2 inside-out

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 36
- 25 Unforced (12 FH, 13 BH)
- 11 Forced (7 FH, 3 BH, 1 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 43.6

Nadal 47
- 32 Unforced (16 FH, 15 BH, 1 OH)
- 15 Forced (7 FH, 6 BH, 1 FH1/2V, 1 Over-the-Shoulder)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.6

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 9/12 (75%) at net, including...
- 0/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve
---
- 1/1 return-approaching
- / forced back

Nadal was...
- 7/15 (47%) at net, with...
- 0/2 forced back/retreated

Match Report
Nadal holds even with Djokovic for a set by staying steady and hitting well from the back, before his hitting strength drops, and then, Djokovic does what he wants with him, a’le the ‘08 match. Court seems a bit faster than the earlier match though still slow

In competitive first set, Nadal’s able to stay steady, consistent to match Djoko. He has a hard time progressing beyond that to attacking. Seems like he’s strained to just stay even consistency wise without giving up ground on hitting force. Djoko by contrast seems to be in controlled third gear mode during the even part of the match - and as soon as Nadal’s hitting drops, so does Djoko’s hammer on his head

Out and out aggression would be outside Nadal’s comfort zone, which generally stretches as far as bossily controlling, and moving to attack from there. He can’t ‘control’ rallies, much less ‘bossily’ against Djokovic. Just staying even in them on error front with control shared evenly between two players is as far as Nadal gets. To up things to attacking from there would require risky plays and shot-making

He tries. Looks to take a few balls early off FH, or goes for the point ending shot against deep balls. Looks to whack a few BHs extra hard cc. Even rarely steps in to take returns from inside baseline, looking for an Agassi like booming return to end point. I can’t think of any other match where I’ve seen Nadal look to return in such a way (to be clear, its rare, 3-6 times in the whole match). Its doable too, because Djoko doesn’t serve powerfully

Fails at it most of the time. Not too surprising as its beyond his usual comfort zone, but that’s what he’d need to pull off to pull ahead of the clinical machine at the other end, that attacks after gaining hitting advantage, and can match good hitting without any apparent strain

Serve & Return
Both players virtually serve 2 second serves. Nadal directs large 15% to the body and a good deal more crampingly close. Its something he was toying with around this period and isn’t a surprise to Djoko, who’d faced 19% to the body in the pair’s Year End Championship semi not long ago

As good or bad as any way to serve to Djoko on slow court and at such pace. Pace of Nadal’s serve is that Djoko spontatneously runsaround to play FHs to first serves. He’s on look out for it against the body serves, but doesn’t premeditate it, but just has that much time

The two-second-serves nature of serving by both players comes through in basic stats -
1st serve points won - Djoko 71%, Nadal 55%
2nd serve points won - Djoko 61%, Nadal 56%

… sans 3 double faults, Djoko’s second serve points won 73%, while Nadal has no double faults. Both serve at large in counts - Djoko 70%, Nadal 81%. Harmless serving by both players, of pace and placement

16/19 of Djoko and 9/13 of Nadal’s return errors have been marked UEs. Return rates are good (Djoko 77%, Nadal 74%), but scope for both, particularly Djoko to do better. Theoretically, no reason to miss any returns at all. Practically, that’s not feasible, but 80%+ return rates is on the cards against what’s on show. 90% would be a good number and in that regard, neither returns well. No great weight behind the returns either - about Nadal’s norm, and below personal par for Djoko

Play - Baseline
In first set, depth and force of stock shots are close to equal (as it wasn’t in ‘08) and with serve-return almost non-factor, its consistency and movement that’s tested. Fair bit of moving-opponent around play sprinkled into staple cc exchanges, with the two doing about the same amount of running. Both are able to reach balls on fun and make a few ‘gets’, usually going onto lose the point later on

No significant difference in Nadal’s footspeed from ‘08. If anything, he gets more chance to showcase his running here and it comes off more impressive. Maybe a bad day in ‘08 because he was certainly a lot quicker in general in that period than even 2-3 years later, let alone 8. Djoko’s about as quick as Nadal, and he didn’t’ have much running to do in ‘08. His short range movement in ‘08 had greater alacrity, which is another way of saying less efficiency

Of hitting, Nadal’s first set showing is categorically better than the soft, loopy stuff of ‘08, though it descends to that level in set 2. Djoko is more controlled and easier of shot, less muscling with it which probably reflects on relative pace of surface as well as changes to his game over the years

Djoko still dangerous of both wings, Nadal still just the FH. Again, 0 BH winners for him

That 2016 match made me so mad.

 

[Biotic]

Nadal showed glimpses in 2016 before the break he could come back.

2016 Nadal is underrated.

 

[tudwell]

2016 Nadal is underrated.

Definitely better than 2015, at least in the first half of the year. Shame he had the freak wrist injury during the French. Would have been the clear favorite to make the semis and challenge Novak.