Duel Match Stats/Reports - Djokovic vs Nadal, Monte Carlo semi-final & French Open quarter-final, 2015

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Novak Djokovic beat Rafael Nadal 6-3, 6-3 in the Monte Carlo semi-final, 2015 on clay

Djokovic would go onto beat Tomas Berdych in the final to win his second title at the event. Nadal would win the title the next 3 years. The two would go onto meet in the quarter-finals of the upcoming French Open, with Djokovic winning again

Djokovic won 69 points, Nadal 54

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (43/57) 75%
- 1st serve points won (31/43) 72%
- 2nd serve points won (8/14) 57%
- Aces 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (12/57) 21%

Nadal....
- 1st serve percentage (43/66) 65%
- 1st serve points won (25/43) 58%
- 2nd serve points won (11/23) 48%
- Aces 2
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (10/66) 15%

Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 46%
- to BH 53%
- to Body 2%

Nadal served...
- to FH 29%
- to BH 68%
- to Body 3%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 53 (22 FH, 31 BH), including 6 runaround FHs
- 2 Winners (2 FH)
- 8 Errors, comprising...
- 3 Unforced (2 FH, 1 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 5 Forced (1 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (53/63) 84%

Nadal made...
- 45 (24 FH, 21 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (3 FH, 3 BH)
- 5 Forced (2 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (45/57) 79%

Break Points
Djokovic 4/10 (5 games)
Nadal 1/3 (3 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 22 (11 FH, 5 BH, 2 BHV, 4 OH)
Nadal 18 (7 FH, 4 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 4 OH)

Djokovic's FHs - 6 dtl (1 return), 3 inside-out (1 return, 1 at net), 1 inside-in and 1 drop shot
- BHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl, 1 drop shot and 2 running-down-drop-shot cc at net

- 1 BHV was a lob

- all 4 OHs were on the bounce - 1 at net, 2 from no-man's land (not net shots - 1 was from a forced back net point) and 1 from baseline

Nadal's FHs - 3 dtl (1 pass), 3 inside-out (1 turnaround pass) and 1 inside-in at net
- BHs - 3 cc (2 passes) and 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl at net

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 26
- 20 Unforced (11 FH, 9 BH)... with 1 FH at net
- 6 Forced (2 FH, 3 BH, 1 BHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47

Nadal 32
- 20 Unforced (16 FH, 4 BH)
- 12 Forced (6 FH, 5 BH, 1 BHOH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 14/25 (56%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 2nd serve
---
- 2/3 (67%) forced back/retreated

Nadal was...
- 14/20 (70%) at net, with...
- 1/3 (33%) forced back

Match Report
Djokovic does pretty much whatever he wants to all match and Nadal does his best to control the damage on a low-for-clay bouncing court. Most balls are hit hip to waist height and very few get up as high as the shoulder

As feeble as he's made to look, Nadal doesn't actually play too badly by a general standard. Djoko's though, is a very high one - seemingly a plane above Nadal

Nadal's 18 winners, 20 UEs is a good ratio for clay. In fact, its near enough to Djoko's 22 winners, 20 UEs. What loads things heavily Djoko's way is his forcing 12 errors to Nadal managing just 6... that's a fair indicator of the difference between the two. Djoko hits the ball, with much greater authority off the baseline

This hasn't come through in the stats. UEFI is not all only identical, even the breakdown is (neutral errors - both 11, attacking errors - both 4, winner attempt errors - both 5)

Given the way they play - Djokovic commanding and doing whatever he wants, Nadal counter-punching without much punch - this is unexpected. Relative to a standard Djoko-Nadal clay match, Nadal is error prone and misses regulation shots at high rate. Djoko is decent with scope for improvement, but his neutral shots skirt line between being forceful and not, especially with regards to direction. Nadal's shots by contrast are weak... lots of short balls, lots of not hard hit ones. Almost just plopping ball back in court

Djoko being the more aggressive and commanding is norm for the match up and Nadal generally has 2 compensations. He's more consistent (not true here) and he defends with gusto (i.e. gets forceful shots back in play, with possibilities of Djoko eventually missing going for too much)

The latter also doesn't happen here. Djoko's the faster player, stronger on the run and better able to withstand his opponents attacks. On top of said attacks being tame compared to his own, Nadal's high 12 FEs aren't too difficult to draw. Its significantly easier to force an error out of Nadal than it is out of Djokovic - and Djokovic's shots are at least twice as likely (almost certainly more) likely to force errors

So what is Nadal's compensation, given his shots have no punch, he's as error prone and he's slower of foot? Net points

Nadal wins 70% at net, Djoko 56%. And both are net a lot - with 123 points in match, Djoko's in forecourt 20%, Nadal 16% of all points. That's mostly about drop shots and not volleying... Djoko's in such control that he's allowed to indulge drop shotting. He does well in that he doesn't make as many UEs trying, but probably still comes off net negative on the whole

Note the care Djoko's put into his OHs. all 4 of his winners are on the bounce, including 1 from the baseline. He also puts a difficult BHOH in play while forced back

There are no crosscourt rallies, to exaggerate a touch. Djokovic habitually goes longline, especially off the BH. I'd estimate he plays BH longline as often as BH cc from neutral position, so much so that calling the longline shots a 'change-up' is inaccurate. Its as normal as cc for this match. It doesn't seem to be about targetting a side or even moving Nadal around... basically, Djoko's just doing whatever he wants to

One gets the sense he could outhit or outlast Nadal both FH - BH and BH - FH

Match Progression
Match opens with a bang with Nadal breaking to 15 with 3 winners - a FH dtl pass, a FH inside-out and a BHV. After holding, he has another break point next game on back of 3 successive Djoko BH UEs, but is overpowered and can't make the pass with Djoko taking net

Djoko breaks to level match, with Nadal giving up neutral errors as he's outplayed from baseline. Djoko does throw in a lovely lob BHV winner after drop shotting Nadal to net

There's a terrific 14 point Djoko game where the 2 players share 8 winners and both are at net regularly (Nadal 8 times, Djoko 5), mostly due to drop shots

Djokovic plays a perfect finely angled BH cc running-down-drop-shot winner. Few points later, he drop shots Nadal in, lob volleys Nadal's run-down shot forcing him back from net, Nadal's makes an over-shoulder retrieve lob and Djoko finishes with OH on bounce winner from no-man's land

Couple points after that, its Nadal who drop shots Djoko in, Djoko makes the lob, Nadal's forced back but hits a turnaround FH inside-out pass winner

For all the fireworks of that game, Djoko holds. And breaks next more mundanely, via errors from Nadal

Second set is more one sided. Djoko loses 3 points in 4 service games while constantly threatening on return. Nadal serves 45 points in the set, to Djoko's 19. The 6 points in game 6 - a Djoko hold - has 5 winners and a forced error. Extended to games on either side, the passage of play sees 8 winners in 9 points and 11 points in a row that end with winners or forced errors. Djoko's at his best in the set and in control of action

Match ends with Djoko's second break, the last 2 points being a FH dtl return winner and a BH cc winner. The latter sums up the match. Djoko's mostly played BH longlines all match, though looking more than able to dominate with cc's. It looks very much like he could have pulled of winning cc plays just as easily

Summing up, one of Djokovic's most commanding wins over Nadal on clay and his shots are a lot harder, vastly more varied, taken earlier and supported by better movement than his opponent. Nadal's shot strength is down - especially the FH - but doesn't play badly by a general standard. Too good from Djoko

Stats for pair's previous finals -
- 2013 - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...kovic-vs-nadal-monte-carlo-final-2013.670108/
- 2012 - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...djokovic-monte-carlo-rome-finals-2012.668158/
- 2009 - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...al-vs-djokovic-monte-carlo-final-2009.672223/
 
Novak Djokovic beat Rafael Nadal 6-3, 6-3 in the Monte Carlo semi-final, 2015 on clay

Djokovic would go onto beat Tomas Berdych in the final to win his second title at the event. Nadal would win the title the next 3 years. The two would go onto meet in the quarter-finals of the upcoming French Open, with Djokovic winning again

Djokovic won 69 points, Nadal 54

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (43/57) 75%
- 1st serve points won (31/43) 72%
- 2nd serve points won (8/14) 57%
- Aces 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (12/57) 21%

Nadal....
- 1st serve percentage (43/66) 65%
- 1st serve points won (25/43) 58%
- 2nd serve points won (11/23) 48%
- Aces 2
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (10/66) 15%

Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 46%
- to BH 53%
- to Body 2%

Nadal served...
- to FH 29%
- to BH 68%
- to Body 3%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 53 (22 FH, 31 BH), including 6 runaround FHs
- 2 Winners (2 FH)
- 8 Errors, comprising...
- 3 Unforced (2 FH, 1 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 5 Forced (1 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (53/63) 84%

Nadal made...
- 45 (24 FH, 21 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (3 FH, 3 BH)
- 5 Forced (2 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (45/57) 79%

Break Points
Djokovic 4/10 (5 games)
Nadal 1/3 (3 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 22 (11 FH, 5 BH, 2 BHV, 4 OH)
Nadal 18 (7 FH, 4 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 4 OH)

Djokovic's FHs - 6 dtl (1 return), 3 inside-out (1 return, 1 at net), 1 inside-in and 1 drop shot
- BHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl, 1 drop shot and 2 running-down-drop-shot cc at net

- 1 BHV was a lob

- all 4 OHs were on the bounce - 1 at net, 2 from no-man's land (not net shots - 1 was from a forced back net point) and 1 from baseline

Nadal's FHs - 3 dtl (1 pass), 3 inside-out (1 turnaround pass) and 1 inside-in at net
- BHs - 3 cc (2 passes) and 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl at net

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 26
- 20 Unforced (11 FH, 9 BH)... with 1 FH at net
- 6 Forced (2 FH, 3 BH, 1 BHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47

Nadal 32
- 20 Unforced (16 FH, 4 BH)
- 12 Forced (6 FH, 5 BH, 1 BHOH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 14/25 (56%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 2nd serve
---
- 2/3 (67%) forced back/retreated

Nadal was...
- 14/20 (70%) at net, with...
- 1/3 (33%) forced back

Match Report
Djokovic does pretty much whatever he wants to all match and Nadal does his best to control the damage on a low-for-clay bouncing court. Most balls are hit hip to waist height and very few get up as high as the shoulder

As feeble as he's made to look, Nadal doesn't actually play too badly by a general standard. Djoko's though, is a very high one - seemingly a plane above Nadal

Nadal's 18 winners, 20 UEs is a good ratio for clay. In fact, its near enough to Djoko's 22 winners, 20 UEs. What loads things heavily Djoko's way is his forcing 12 errors to Nadal managing just 6... that's a fair indicator of the difference between the two. Djoko hits the ball, with much greater authority off the baseline

This hasn't come through in the stats. UEFI is not all only identical, even the breakdown is (neutral errors - both 11, attacking errors - both 4, winner attempt errors - both 5)

Given the way they play - Djokovic commanding and doing whatever he wants, Nadal counter-punching without much punch - this is unexpected. Relative to a standard Djoko-Nadal clay match, Nadal is error prone and misses regulation shots at high rate. Djoko is decent with scope for improvement, but his neutral shots skirt line between being forceful and not, especially with regards to direction. Nadal's shots by contrast are weak... lots of short balls, lots of not hard hit ones. Almost just plopping ball back in court

Djoko being the more aggressive and commanding is norm for the match up and Nadal generally has 2 compensations. He's more consistent (not true here) and he defends with gusto (i.e. gets forceful shots back in play, with possibilities of Djoko eventually missing going for too much)

The latter also doesn't happen here. Djoko's the faster player, stronger on the run and better able to withstand his opponents attacks. On top of said attacks being tame compared to his own, Nadal's high 12 FEs aren't too difficult to draw. Its significantly easier to force an error out of Nadal than it is out of Djokovic - and Djokovic's shots are at least twice as likely (almost certainly more) likely to force errors

So what is Nadal's compensation, given his shots have no punch, he's as error prone and he's slower of foot? Net points

Nadal wins 70% at net, Djoko 56%. And both are net a lot - with 123 points in match, Djoko's in forecourt 20%, Nadal 16% of all points. That's mostly about drop shots and not volleying... Djoko's in such control that he's allowed to indulge drop shotting. He does well in that he doesn't make as many UEs trying, but probably still comes off net negative on the whole

Note the care Djoko's put into his OHs. all 4 of his winners are on the bounce, including 1 from the baseline. He also puts a difficult BHOH in play while forced back

There are no crosscourt rallies, to exaggerate a touch. Djokovic habitually goes longline, especially off the BH. I'd estimate he plays BH longline as often as BH cc from neutral position, so much so that calling the longline shots a 'change-up' is inaccurate. Its as normal as cc for this match. It doesn't seem to be about targetting a side or even moving Nadal around... basically, Djoko's just doing whatever he wants to

One gets the sense he could outhit or outlast Nadal both FH - BH and BH - FH

Match Progression
Match opens with a bang with Nadal breaking to 15 with 3 winners - a FH dtl pass, a FH inside-out and a BHV. After holding, he has another break point next game on back of 3 successive Djoko BH UEs, but is overpowered and can't make the pass with Djoko taking net

Djoko breaks to level match, with Nadal giving up neutral errors as he's outplayed from baseline. Djoko does throw in a lovely lob BHV winner after drop shotting Nadal to net

There's a terrific 14 point Djoko game where the 2 players share 8 winners and both are at net regularly (Nadal 8 times, Djoko 5), mostly due to drop shots

Djokovic plays a perfect finely angled BH cc running-down-drop-shot winner. Few points later, he drop shots Nadal in, lob volleys Nadal's run-down shot forcing him back from net, Nadal's makes an over-shoulder retrieve lob and Djoko finishes with OH on bounce winner from no-man's land

Couple points after that, its Nadal who drop shots Djoko in, Djoko makes the lob, Nadal's forced back but hits a turnaround FH inside-out pass winner

For all the fireworks of that game, Djoko holds. And breaks next more mundanely, via errors from Nadal

Second set is more one sided. Djoko loses 3 points in 4 service games while constantly threatening on return. Nadal serves 45 points in the set, to Djoko's 19. The 6 points in game 6 - a Djoko hold - has 5 winners and a forced error. Extended to games on either side, the passage of play sees 8 winners in 9 points and 11 points in a row that end with winners or forced errors. Djoko's at his best in the set and in control of action

Match ends with Djoko's second break, the last 2 points being a FH dtl return winner and a BH cc winner. The latter sums up the match. Djoko's mostly played BH longlines all match, though looking more than able to dominate with cc's. It looks very much like he could have pulled of winning cc plays just as easily

Summing up, one of Djokovic's most commanding wins over Nadal on clay and his shots are a lot harder, vastly more varied, taken earlier and supported by better movement than his opponent. Nadal's shot strength is down - especially the FH - but doesn't play badly by a general standard. Too good from Djoko

Stats for pair's previous finals -
- 2013 - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...kovic-vs-nadal-monte-carlo-final-2013.670108/
- 2012 - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...djokovic-monte-carlo-rome-finals-2012.668158/
- 2009 - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...al-vs-djokovic-monte-carlo-final-2009.672223/
I remember watching this match. Actually I had some hopes in Nadal as the event was Monte Carlo, but all of them vanished after Nadal pretty much cooked himself against Ferrer the day before (turning a straight set win into a 3 set grind, losing 4 consecutive games in the 2nd set from 5-3 30-30).
 
I remember watching this match. Actually I had some hopes in Nadal as the event was Monte Carlo, but all of them vanished after Nadal pretty much cooked himself against Ferrer the day before (turning a straight set win into a 3 set grind, losing 4 consecutive games in the 2nd set from 5-3 30-30).

Don't remember the specifics of that, but on strength of this match, not too surprised Ferrer was able to push him so

Nadal superiority on clay over everyone is based on -
- greater consistency of neutral shot (i.e. few UEs)
- heaviness of neutral shot (i.e. hard to attack)
- defence (i.e hard to end attacks successfully)

All 3 are down in this match. Consistency being down might just be a bad day, but the other 2 have probably just deteriorated from before

A typical Ferrer showing I imagine wouldn't be a never-in-doubt case against the Nadal that shows up for this match with Djokovic

Court seems low bouncing too
 
Don't remember the specifics of that, but on strength of this match, not too surprised Ferrer was able to push him so

Nadal superiority on clay over everyone is based on -
- greater consistency of neutral shot (i.e. few UEs)
- heaviness of neutral shot (i.e. hard to attack)
- defence (i.e hard to end attacks successfully)

All 3 are down in this match. Consistency being down might just be a bad day, but the other 2 have probably just deteriorated from before

A typical Ferrer showing I imagine wouldn't be a never-in-doubt case against the Nadal that shows up for this match with Djokovic

Court seems low bouncing too
I think it's pretty weird how Ferrer beat RAFA in straights the previous year but lost in 2015 in 3.
 
I think it's pretty weird how Ferrer beat RAFA in straights the previous year but lost in 2015 in 3.
Because Nadal during most of the 2014 clay season was just as bad as in 2015, if not worse. The difference is that his physical form was still decent in 2014 which helped him to improve a bit for RG. In 2015 his physical form was the worst its ever been so he had no chances.
 
Ferrer himself declined.
Nah, Ferrer was the same player in both years. What some are forgetting is that Nadal during most of the 2014 clay season was just as bad as in 2015, in some tournaments even worse. He hit 44 unforced errors in the 2014 match against Ferrer. Actually, after MC and Barcelona 2015 I was thinking "well, at least he is not as terrible as last year (not that it says much given his 2014 form in these tournaments), so maybe there is some chance for improvement". But no, in 2015 he couldn't improve because not just his game declined, but also his physical form.
 
At French Open, Djokovic beat Nadal 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 in the quarter-final, on clay

Djokovic would go onto lose in the final to Stan Wawrinka. Nadal was the defending champion and had beaten Djokovic in the previous years final. This was his second and to date, last loss of at the event

Djokovic won 102 points, Nadal 72

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (50/80) 63%
- 1st serve points won (38/50) 76%
- 2nd serve points won (18/30) 60%
- Aces 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (13/80) 16%

Nadal....
- 1st serve percentage (56/93) 60%
- 1st serve points won (33/56) 59%
- 2nd serve points won (14/37) 38%
- Aces 3
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (19/93) 20%

Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 46%
- to BH 53%
- to Body 1%

Nadal served...
- to FH 27%
- to BH 52%
- to Body 21%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 72 (30 FH, 42 BH), including 4 runaround FHs
- 3 Winners (3 FH), including 1 runaround FH
- 16 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (8 FH, 2 BH)
- 6 Forced (4 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (72/91) 79%

Nadal made...
- 67 (36 FH, 31 BH), including 5 runaround FHs
- 10 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (3 FH, 4 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 3 Forced (4 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (72/91) 79%

Break Points
Djokovic 7/18 (8 games)
Nadal 2/5 (2 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 41 (22 FH, 8 BH, 3 FHV, 5 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 2 OH)
Nadal 12 (3 FH, 4 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH, 2 BHOH)

Djokovic's FHs - 5 cc, 1 cc/inside-in, 1 cc/longline, 5 dtl (1 pass, 1 return), 1 runaround dtl/inside-out return, 4 inside-out, 1 inside-in, 1 longline/inside-out, 1 running-down-drop-shot cc at net (finely played) and 2 net chord dribblers (1 return)
- BHs - 2 cc, 3 dtl (1 at net), 1 inside-out and 2 drop shots

- 1 from a serve-volley point - a first 'volley' BH1/2V
- 1 BHV was a lob

Nadal's FHs - 3 cc
- BHs - 1 cc at net, 2 dtl (1 pass, 1 net-to-net) and 1 drop shot

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 40
- 30 Unforced (12 FH, 17 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 FH at net
- 10 Forced (4 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV)... with 2 running-down-drop-shots at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48

Nadal 46
- 32 Unforced (19 FH, 11 BH, 1 FHV, 1 OH)
- 14 Forced (4 FH, 8 BH, 1 BHV, 1 Back-to-Net)... with 3 running-down-drop-shots at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.2

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was 21/31 (68%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 2nd serve
---
- 1/1 forced back

Nadal was 11/30 (37%) at net, with...
- 0/2 forced back

Match Report
A similar match to the Monte Carlo one, with the gap between the two players even wider, Djokovic even more impressive and Nadal less

Note Djoko leading in all areas of play - winners (41 to 12), UEs (30 to 32) and FEs (10 to 14). Not only is he +11 on winners/UE count, he actually has more 1 more winner than total errors - which is remarkable for any surface but especially for clay. Djoko with higher 2nd serve points won (60%) than Nadal is on first serve points (59%). Djoko has 22 FH winners, Nadal has 12 total

On the UE front, even just limited to neutral errors, Djoko has 15, Nadal 18, which speaks to Djoko's superior basic consistency. The discrepancy in attacking prowess is self-evident from the winner counts

Djoko plays a balanced game, not even an attacking one. Bulk of match are neutral rallies. Not too much in it as above figures show. Djoko though has a significantly heavier neutral shot, more due to Nadal's lacking pop as Djoko's having anything special on it

Djoko also with better movement. In conjunction with near equality of consistency , Djoko having heavier ball and quality of Nadal's regular ball, Djoko's in position to do pretty much whatever he wants to in play - continue neutral rallying, attacking moderately or attack strongly

For most part, he keeps it to neutral rallying and moderate attacks, particularly drop shots (which Nadal proves ineffective in coping with). Only in odd spurts does he look to kill points outright... its almost as if he's toying with Nadal and could blow him away just as easily as he outlast and outmanuver him

Serve & Return
Nadal has stronger serve. They're about equal of power, Nadal perhaps sending down a few more extra hard hit. He also utilizes body serves (21% of them to Djoko's 1)... probably the best option, given inability to hit wide spots. Its better than serving with moderate force to Djoko's swing zone

Nadal leading unreturned rates 20% to 16%. Neither player serves hard, but Nadal is the harder. Note 6/16 or 37.5% of Djoko return errors being marked forced to 3/10 or 30% of Nadal's

Djoko returns far more strongly though, with power and depth though well short of his best. You can say Djokovic returns within himself... he doesn't need to do more because of advantage he enjoys in play. His returning is like his play - strong but restrained and apparently he can up it as and when he wants

Consistency of return is one of best parts of Nadal's showing. He's not returning from too far back (by his standard) and returns with his at best, neutralizing but short of initiative grabbing force - all at 84% return rate. About as good as he could hope for
 
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Play - Baseline & Drop Shots
Of neutral shots, Nadal's have little force behind them. It somewhat brings home how much they did have in earlier years; Nadal has generally won most points on clay via opponents 'unforced errors' - a function of his consistency in outlasting them. The role of the heaviness of his neutral shots - especially the FH - was also key

Its absence is seen here. Just plopping ball into court, if anything, more so off the FH than BH

Djoko hits more firmly and just as consistently, neutrally. And seems to be able to step it up to hit ball early and hard as and when he pleases - at least pushing Nadal about and when desired, finishing points with winners

Nadal's movements are also below average even by a normal standard, which means a drop in the lake to his own. The errors he's forced into are as much about slow movement to ball as inability to defend. And he declines to chase many a ball - both drop shots and firm shots, completely uncharacteristically. Not that its a bad idea... the way he's moving, he wouldn't have got to most of them anyway and the way Djoko's playing, its extremely likely what little was put back in play would be polished off next shot

And then there's Nadal's attacks. Generally, while being more the counter-puncher, he also dictates a decent proportion of rallies, usually with FH. And has the ability to counter-attack if Djoko's attacking shot is just a tad off. Here, he does little of either. Instead, he's forced to create his own attacking plays. Not only does he tend to miss, but misses by long ways - shots landing near doubles sideline are common

9 winner attempts errors from Nadal is very poor given he has just 12 winners. Djoko has same number of errors - and the small matter of 41 winners

Generally in the match up on clay, the challenges facing Djokovic is keeping his errors down while bossing play (i.e. trying to keep up with Nadal consistency-wise, on which he's handicapped by going for more on shots because he has to - he'd lose most points if they rallied with equal low vigour) and ability to finish points

No problem finishing points. Though Nadal is off on defence, Djoko's attacks are formidable in strength and sustainability. As he does when at his best, Djoko's play moves seamlessly between solid and attacking. Even a well-playing Nadal would struggle. Action being one sided though is due to Nadal's problems on consistency, ordinary hitting, poor movement and defence - but that's taking for granted Djokovic's high standard play

And drop shots. Lot and lots and lots of drop shots. Djoko doesn't miss a one. High number of net points for both players (Djoko 31, Nadal 30) are mostly about Djoko's drop shots. Its a shot that he very, very rarely comes off better on against Nadal on clay (in fact, this might be the only one)... he does here

Couple of oddities. Note Nadal with 2 BHOH winners. Both are on Djoko drop shots plays. And Djoko hits a first 'volley' BH1/2V winner on his only serve-volley points. Its curious how often Djoko manages to get a 1/2volley winner off against Nadal on clay

In a couple nutshells - Nadal, not very consistent and somewhat puny with his regular groundies, ordinary movement and defence and misfiring with attacking plays badly. Djokovic - a tad less than rock solid but carrying more weight in neutral rallies, while able to step it up seemingly at will to overwhelm Nadal

Match Progression
Djokovic wins 16 of first 20 points of match to move ahead 4-0. Lots of drop shots in that run and otherwise, Djoko pushing Nadal about with firm shots from the back

2 poor games from Djoko to hand back both breaks and Nadal holds once to love with 4 unreturned serves (2 aces) to put match back on serve, before Djoko again seizes command. Nadal endures back to back return games lasting 14 and 10 points. He manages to hold the first, but can't the second - a critical point of which is Nadal missing an easy OH

2nd set is quite flat from both players. Neutral rallies, Nadal's shot still with little oomph on them, Djoko hanging back behind the baseline hitting firmer but without particular consistency or intent. Djoko gains the late break in an error riddled game, ending with Nadal missing consecutive attacking FHs

Not an easy serve-out for Djoko, as he's taken to 10 points though not facing break point. He serve-volleys for the only time (and off a second serve) and hits a perfect BH1/2V winner to bring up another set point, where he forces a FH error

6-1 scorelines for Nadal-Djokovic matches are sometimes deceptive and actually have tough play. Not here. Djoko dominates, doing as he pleases while Nadal struggles to hang in even neutrally, while having no defensive answers

Summing up, a commanding showing from Djokovic - transitioning seamlessly from regular rallying to attacking and doing the latter with vigour via both power and drop shots. Nadal is weak off the ground - soft of neutral shot, not particularly consistent, sub-par movement and defence and occasional attempts to force action failing badly. Holding Nadal to his own standard, main verdict would be a poor show from him. Seeing Nadal as a good tennis player though, primarily, a strong outing from Djokovic

@Djokovic13 - thoughts?
Stats for pair's next clay match in '16 Rome quarters - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...ovic-vs-nadal-rome-quarter-final-2016.673328/
 
Play - Baseline & Drop Shots
Of neutral shots, Nadal's have little force behind them. It somewhat brings home how much they did have in earlier years; Nadal has generally won most points on clay via opponents 'unforced errors' - a function of his consistency in outlasting them. The role of the heaviness of his neutral shots - especially the FH - was also key

Its absence is seen here. Just plopping ball into court, if anything, more so off the FH than BH

Djoko hits more firmly and just as consistently, neutrally. And seems to be able to step it up to hit ball early and hard as and when he pleases - at least pushing Nadal about and when desired, finishing points with winners

Nadal's movements are also below average even by a normal standard, which means a drop in the lake to his own. The errors he's forced into are as much about slow movement to ball as inability to defend. And he declines to chase many a ball - both drop shots and firm shots, completely uncharacteristically. Not that its a bad idea... the way he's moving, he wouldn't have got to most of them anyway and the way Djoko's playing, its extremely likely what little was put back in play would be polished off next shot

And then there's Nadal's attacks. Generally, while being more the counter-puncher, he also dictates a decent proportion of rallies, usually with FH. And has the ability to counter-attack if Djoko's attacking shot is just a tad off. Here, he does little of either. Instead, he's forced to create his own attacking plays. Not only does he tend to miss, but misses by long ways - shots landing near doubles sideline are common

9 winner attempts errors from Nadal is very poor given he has just 12 winners. Djoko has same number of errors - and the small matter of 41 winners

Generally in the match up on clay, the challenges facing Djokovic is keeping his errors down while bossing play (i.e. trying to keep up with Nadal consistency-wise, on which he's handicapped by going for more on shots because he has to - he'd lose most points if they rallied with equal low vigour) and ability to finish points

No problem finishing points. Though Nadal is off on defence, Djoko's attacks are formidable in strength and sustainability. As he does when at his best, Djoko's play moves seamlessly between solid and attacking. Even a well-playing Nadal would struggle. Action being one sided though is due to Nadal's problems on consistency, ordinary hitting, poor movement and defence - but that's taking for granted Djokovic's high standard play

And drop shots. Lot and lots and lots of drop shots. Djoko doesn't miss a one. High number of net points for both players (Djoko 31, Nadal 30) are mostly about Djoko's drop shots. Its a shot that he very, very rarely comes off better on against Nadal on clay (in fact, this might be the only one)... he does here

Couple of oddities. Note Nadal with 2 BHOH winners. Both are on Djoko drop shots plays. And Djoko hits a first 'volley' BH1/2V winner on his only serve-volley points. Its curious how often Djoko manages to get a 1/2volley winner off against Nadal on clay

In a couple nutshells - Nadal, not very consistent and somewhat puny with his regular groundies, ordinary movement and defence and misfiring with attacking plays badly. Djokovic - a tad less than rock solid but carrying more weight in neutral rallies, while able to step it up seemingly at will to overwhelm Nadal

Match Progression
Djokovic wins 16 of first 20 points of match to move ahead 4-0. Lots of drop shots in that run and otherwise, Djoko pushing Nadal about with firm shots from the back

2 poor games from Djoko to hand back both breaks and Nadal holds once to love with 4 unreturned serves (2 aces) to put match back on serve, before Djoko again seizes command. Nadal endures back to back return games lasting 14 and 10 points. He manages to hold the first, but can't the second - a critical point of which is Nadal missing an easy OH

2nd set is quite flat from both players. Neutral rallies, Nadal's shot still with little oomph on them, Djoko hanging back behind the baseline hitting firmer but without particular consistency or intent. Djoko gains the late break in an error riddled game, ending with Nadal missing consecutive attacking FHs

Not an easy serve-out for Djoko, as he's taken to 10 points though not facing break point. He serve-volleys for the only time (and off a second serve) and hits a perfect BH1/2V winner to bring up another set point, where he forces a FH error

6-1 scorelines for Nadal-Djokovic matches are sometimes deceptive and actually have tough play. Not here. Djoko dominates, doing as he pleases while Nadal struggles to hang in even neutrally, while having no defensive answers

Summing up, a commanding showing from Djokovic - transitioning seamlessly from regular rallying to attacking and doing the latter with vigour via both power and drop shots. Nadal is weak off the ground - soft of neutral shot, not particularly consistent, sub-par movement and defence and occasional attempts to force action failing badly. Holding Nadal to his own standard, main verdict would be a poor show from him. Seeing Nadal as a good tennis player though, primarily, a strong outing from Djokovic

@Djokovic13 - thoughts?
Stats for pair's next clay match in '16 Rome quarters - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...ovic-vs-nadal-rome-quarter-final-2016.673328/
12 winners in three sets from Nadal. Shows you how bad he was really playing that year.
 
Novak Djokovic beat Rafael Nadal 6-3, 6-3 in the Monte Carlo semi-final, 2015 on clay

Djokovic would go onto beat Tomas Berdych in the final to win his second title at the event. Nadal would win the title the next 3 years. The two would go onto meet in the quarter-finals of the upcoming French Open, with Djokovic winning again

Djokovic won 69 points, Nadal 54

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (43/57) 75%
- 1st serve points won (31/43) 72%
- 2nd serve points won (8/14) 57%
- Aces 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (12/57) 21%

Nadal....
- 1st serve percentage (43/66) 65%
- 1st serve points won (25/43) 58%
- 2nd serve points won (11/23) 48%
- Aces 2
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (10/66) 15%

Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 46%
- to BH 53%
- to Body 2%

Nadal served...
- to FH 29%
- to BH 68%
- to Body 3%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 53 (22 FH, 31 BH), including 6 runaround FHs
- 2 Winners (2 FH)
- 8 Errors, comprising...
- 3 Unforced (2 FH, 1 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 5 Forced (1 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (53/63) 84%

Nadal made...
- 45 (24 FH, 21 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (3 FH, 3 BH)
- 5 Forced (2 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (45/57) 79%

Break Points
Djokovic 4/10 (5 games)
Nadal 1/3 (3 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 22 (11 FH, 5 BH, 2 BHV, 4 OH)
Nadal 18 (7 FH, 4 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 4 OH)

Djokovic's FHs - 6 dtl (1 return), 3 inside-out (1 return, 1 at net), 1 inside-in and 1 drop shot
- BHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl, 1 drop shot and 2 running-down-drop-shot cc at net

- 1 BHV was a lob

- all 4 OHs were on the bounce - 1 at net, 2 from no-man's land (not net shots - 1 was from a forced back net point) and 1 from baseline

Nadal's FHs - 3 dtl (1 pass), 3 inside-out (1 turnaround pass) and 1 inside-in at net
- BHs - 3 cc (2 passes) and 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl at net

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 26
- 20 Unforced (11 FH, 9 BH)... with 1 FH at net
- 6 Forced (2 FH, 3 BH, 1 BHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47

Nadal 32
- 20 Unforced (16 FH, 4 BH)
- 12 Forced (6 FH, 5 BH, 1 BHOH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 14/25 (56%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 2nd serve
---
- 2/3 (67%) forced back/retreated

Nadal was...
- 14/20 (70%) at net, with...
- 1/3 (33%) forced back

Match Report
Djokovic does pretty much whatever he wants to all match and Nadal does his best to control the damage on a low-for-clay bouncing court. Most balls are hit hip to waist height and very few get up as high as the shoulder

As feeble as he's made to look, Nadal doesn't actually play too badly by a general standard. Djoko's though, is a very high one - seemingly a plane above Nadal

Nadal's 18 winners, 20 UEs is a good ratio for clay. In fact, its near enough to Djoko's 22 winners, 20 UEs. What loads things heavily Djoko's way is his forcing 12 errors to Nadal managing just 6... that's a fair indicator of the difference between the two. Djoko hits the ball, with much greater authority off the baseline

This hasn't come through in the stats. UEFI is not all only identical, even the breakdown is (neutral errors - both 11, attacking errors - both 4, winner attempt errors - both 5)

Given the way they play - Djokovic commanding and doing whatever he wants, Nadal counter-punching without much punch - this is unexpected. Relative to a standard Djoko-Nadal clay match, Nadal is error prone and misses regulation shots at high rate. Djoko is decent with scope for improvement, but his neutral shots skirt line between being forceful and not, especially with regards to direction. Nadal's shots by contrast are weak... lots of short balls, lots of not hard hit ones. Almost just plopping ball back in court

Djoko being the more aggressive and commanding is norm for the match up and Nadal generally has 2 compensations. He's more consistent (not true here) and he defends with gusto (i.e. gets forceful shots back in play, with possibilities of Djoko eventually missing going for too much)

The latter also doesn't happen here. Djoko's the faster player, stronger on the run and better able to withstand his opponents attacks. On top of said attacks being tame compared to his own, Nadal's high 12 FEs aren't too difficult to draw. Its significantly easier to force an error out of Nadal than it is out of Djokovic - and Djokovic's shots are at least twice as likely (almost certainly more) likely to force errors

So what is Nadal's compensation, given his shots have no punch, he's as error prone and he's slower of foot? Net points

Nadal wins 70% at net, Djoko 56%. And both are net a lot - with 123 points in match, Djoko's in forecourt 20%, Nadal 16% of all points. That's mostly about drop shots and not volleying... Djoko's in such control that he's allowed to indulge drop shotting. He does well in that he doesn't make as many UEs trying, but probably still comes off net negative on the whole

Note the care Djoko's put into his OHs. all 4 of his winners are on the bounce, including 1 from the baseline. He also puts a difficult BHOH in play while forced back

There are no crosscourt rallies, to exaggerate a touch. Djokovic habitually goes longline, especially off the BH. I'd estimate he plays BH longline as often as BH cc from neutral position, so much so that calling the longline shots a 'change-up' is inaccurate. Its as normal as cc for this match. It doesn't seem to be about targetting a side or even moving Nadal around... basically, Djoko's just doing whatever he wants to

One gets the sense he could outhit or outlast Nadal both FH - BH and BH - FH

Match Progression
Match opens with a bang with Nadal breaking to 15 with 3 winners - a FH dtl pass, a FH inside-out and a BHV. After holding, he has another break point next game on back of 3 successive Djoko BH UEs, but is overpowered and can't make the pass with Djoko taking net

Djoko breaks to level match, with Nadal giving up neutral errors as he's outplayed from baseline. Djoko does throw in a lovely lob BHV winner after drop shotting Nadal to net

There's a terrific 14 point Djoko game where the 2 players share 8 winners and both are at net regularly (Nadal 8 times, Djoko 5), mostly due to drop shots

Djokovic plays a perfect finely angled BH cc running-down-drop-shot winner. Few points later, he drop shots Nadal in, lob volleys Nadal's run-down shot forcing him back from net, Nadal's makes an over-shoulder retrieve lob and Djoko finishes with OH on bounce winner from no-man's land

Couple points after that, its Nadal who drop shots Djoko in, Djoko makes the lob, Nadal's forced back but hits a turnaround FH inside-out pass winner

For all the fireworks of that game, Djoko holds. And breaks next more mundanely, via errors from Nadal

Second set is more one sided. Djoko loses 3 points in 4 service games while constantly threatening on return. Nadal serves 45 points in the set, to Djoko's 19. The 6 points in game 6 - a Djoko hold - has 5 winners and a forced error. Extended to games on either side, the passage of play sees 8 winners in 9 points and 11 points in a row that end with winners or forced errors. Djoko's at his best in the set and in control of action

Match ends with Djoko's second break, the last 2 points being a FH dtl return winner and a BH cc winner. The latter sums up the match. Djoko's mostly played BH longlines all match, though looking more than able to dominate with cc's. It looks very much like he could have pulled of winning cc plays just as easily

Summing up, one of Djokovic's most commanding wins over Nadal on clay and his shots are a lot harder, vastly more varied, taken earlier and supported by better movement than his opponent. Nadal's shot strength is down - especially the FH - but doesn't play badly by a general standard. Too good from Djoko

Stats for pair's previous finals -
- 2013 - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...kovic-vs-nadal-monte-carlo-final-2013.670108/
- 2012 - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...djokovic-monte-carlo-rome-finals-2012.668158/
- 2009 - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...al-vs-djokovic-monte-carlo-final-2009.672223/




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