Duel Match Stats/Reports - Djokovic vs Sinner & Djokovic vs Alcaraz, Year End Championship final & semi-final, 2023

[Waspsting]

Novak Djokovic beat Jannik Sinner 6-3, 6-3 in the Year End Championship final, 2023 on indoor hard court in Turin, Italy

It was Djokovic’s record breaking 7th title at the event. Sinner was playing his first final at the event. The two had met earlier in the round robin, with Sinner winning in 3 sets

Djokovic won 72 points, Sinner 48

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (32/46) 70%
- 1st serve points won (29/32) 91%
- 2nd serve points won (9/14) 64%
- Aces 14, Service Winners 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (25/46) 54%

Sinner...
- 1st serve percentage (49/74) 66%
- 1st serve points won (28/49) 57%
- 2nd serve points won (12/25) 48%
- Aces 8, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (19/74) 26%

Serve Pattern
Djokovic served...
- to FH 63%
- to BH 35%
- to Body 2%

Sinner served...
- to FH 37%
- to BH 58%
- to Body 5%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 54 (21 FH, 33 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 10 Errors, comprising...
- 2 Unforced (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 8 Forced (5 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (54/73) 74%

Sinner made...
- 21 (18 FH, 3 BH)
- 10 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (2 FH, 3 BH)
- 5 Forced (3 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (21/46) 46%

Break Points
Djokovic 3/8 (5 games)
Sinner 0/2 (1 game)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Djokovic 4 (3 FH, 1 BH)
Sinner 8 (5 FH, 2 BH, 1 OH)

Djokovic's FHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl, 1 longline/cc
- BH - 1 lob

Sinner's FHs - 1 cc pass, 1 cc/longline, 1 inside-in, 1 drop shot, 1 net chord dribbler
- BHs - 2 cc

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Djokovic 21
- 12 Unforced (5 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 9 Forced (6 FH, 3 BH)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.7

Sinner 42
- 29 Unforced (17 FH, 10 BH, 2 FHV)... with 2 swinging FHVs
- 13 Forced (5 FH, 7 BH, 1 BHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.6

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 6/10 (60%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve

Sinner was...
- 4/8 (50%) at net, including...
- 0/2 serve-volleying, both 1st serves

Match Report
Two putaway volley misses separates Djokovic from virtual perfection as he squashes Sinner on a fast court. There’s nothing he doesn’t do exceptionally well, but the serve and FH stand out ahead of the return and BH, which are also high end. Better than Sinner’s for starters

And Sinner? FHs not good, but its more to the point to say its heavily out done by a very strong FH showing from his opponent than outright bad. And he matches Djoko with two terrible swing volley misses. You could say his net game is better, as a weak smash from Djoko leads to him losing another point. Other than that, he’s outdone in all areas

Djoko with 54% unreturned serves. 14 aces, 1 service winner from 32 first serves or 47% of them being unreturnables. This is up there with the best of the best - Goran, Krajicek et. al. Sometimes, ace yields like that are product of going all in with every serve, thus having low in count

Djoko serves at 70%

Other times, ace yields like that come from being so strong that returner basically gives up and makes little effort to return, thus allowing returnable (or at least, touchable) balls go through for aces. Nothing like that here. Virtually every ace hits a line

If you’ve ever wondered what a top drawer court player like Agassi or Nadal might be like if they had a Sampras serve - wonder no more. Something like Djoko in this match

Normal, good serving from Sinner too. Water onto wine next to Djoko. 26% unreturneds is low on such a court. He’s got healthy 9 aces/service winners, but almost everything short of that (and much of what’s short of that is still very strong) comes back. Just 10 return errors drawn

The return? 2 UEs for Djoko, to 5 from Sinner. Inevitably, there are in-swing zone serves. On a quick court, these aren’t easy to return. Sinner misses the odd one here and there. Djoko doesn’t. Bops them back with authority, at least firmly (often more than that), usually deep (sometimes very deep). Against the wider serves? They draw errors from Sinner. Djoko more often than not flashes over to reach the ball and still knocks it back with fair authority

Some good, big second serving from Sinner - virtual first serves. Well done by him on that front. He needs it with the way Djoko returns and that’s another area where he’s superior to his opponent. Djoko serves normal second serves (Sinner misses a couple of easy returns there too)

 

[Waspsting]

And then the baseline rallies. Numbers are deceptive here

Winners - Djoko 4, Sinner 8
Errors Forced - Djoko 13, Siner 9
UEs - Djoko 12, Sinner 29

Very low winners from Djoko and high UEs from Sinner makes this look like a terrible showing from the latter. Its more the case that he’s some combo of squashed and smothered in the rallies than that - more credit to Djoko for how it pans out than discredit to Sinner

Djoko leads with the FH. In general, he tends to do so when particularly looking to put an opponent to the sword. Stock FH is constantly powerful and pressuring, with longline and inside-out changes ups thrown in at will. When he hits a FH winner all but longline (its just slightly tilted cc) down the middle of the court after hammering Sinner back, he doesn’t even appear to be straining and the shot doesn’t stand out as categorically bigger than his stock FHs. Clock shows it to be going 100mph

Its not all dictating stuff either. With bulk of points on Sinners’s serve, Djoko starts most rallies on back-foot. He’s a pain to force an error out of from both sides, but on the run, it’s the FH that stands out more. Ability to neutralize Sinner’s initiative from reactive positions (less so defensive) is another area where FH is superior to BH, and once neutralized, Djoko plies on the pressure with matter-of-fact, exceptional strong hitting

Sinner’s FH is pushed around, bullied and plain ol’ not up to dealing with this. FH UEs read Djoko 5, Sinner by far match high 17. Good lot of those are pressured or beat out of him, relatively tough for UEs
Credit Djoko for outstanding FH play, and Sinner not in that league. Not many players would be

‘Only’ normal high quality stuff on the BH - hard hitting, deep, effortless longline change-ups. Sinner has everything Djoko has on that side, sans the change-ups. BH UEs read Djoko 5, Sinner 10. Djoko slightly more consistent on the stock stuff, and Sinner goes for and misses a few dtl winner attempts off that side

Not much net play. Djoko’s happy to stay back and do his punisher bit. If Sinner wants to approach, he’d best do it early while still carrying initiative from the serve (and of course, Djoko’s return sees to it that isn’t the case as often as Sinner would like). He tends not to come early and doesn’t look comfy at net. Once rally goes on for a bit, it would be very difficult for Sinner to find a way forward. He serve-volleys twice. Lobbed for a winner once, and welcomed by a bullet return to the feet the other time

Match Progression
Djoko loses 2 service points in the first set. 16/22 first serves in, 9 of them unreturned, 8 of those aces. Lot of lines being hit that serve

That still leaves the small matter of breaking the strong Sinner serve, and he’s a little lucky to do it. At deuce, Sinner’s FH is called long. He doesn’t challenge. Replays indicate the ball clipped the back of the line. 1 more FH error later, Djoko’s broken for 3-1 - which is all he needs as he continues serve-botting through easy holds

Some good shots and points in there. In second game, Djoko makes a particularly difficult get to a wide, powerful FH cc and few more before eventually losing a point. The 100mph FH longline/cc winner from Djoko after beating Sinner back with power and depth. Error forcing FH longline shots from Djoko, a third ball BH cc winner from Sinner, a first return FH inside-in from Sinner that forces error. Good stuff, but bits and pieces amidst Djoko’s over-the-top serving

Early part of second set is even more one sided, with Djoko breaking to love to open, holding to love to consolidate and then having 3 break points before Sinner holds game 3. Starting from previous set, Djoko wins 14 points in a row (8 service, 6 return). And another love hold after that

Strong game to break at the start. FH FE to a very deep ball, a slightly stretched out FH dtl error and on break point, Sinner’s run corner to corner before giving up the BH error - one of the simpler balls he faces in the rally

4 unreturned serves to hold - 2 aces, a service winner and a forced return error

Sinner saves 3 break points to get on the board in another challenging game. Saves 2 of them with unreturned serves - the first a very strong 2nd serve that forces error, the second an ace. The one in the middle is Djoko’s best chance, where he has a good look at a FH pass after drawing a weak volley that he misses. Strong serves see him go onto hold

4 unreturned serves to hold - 3 aces and a forced return error

Things finally get competitive on both players serves in second part of the set. BH cc winner from Sinner and couple of FH UEs from Djoko see Sinner reach 15-40. He misses returns on both break points - both against first serves, the second one a regulation return that’s been marked a UE. A trip to net and an error forcing BH dtl sees Djoko to the hold

Whatever joy there might be for finally making headway on return is soon gone as Sinner’s put through the hoop in a 22 point game to follow. Strong hitting from both players in it, with the odd mishap - Djoko not putting away an OH leaves him open to getting passed at deuce, Sinner on a game point makes a hash of a swinging FHV he could just have played normally for a winner. Only 2 break points for Djoko, so relatively comfortable for Sinner (relative to it being a 22 point game that is, which isn’t much comfort). Djoko misses a routine slice on the first and Sinner takes net to save the second. Crucial point is Djoko missing an easy BHV with court open and Sinner off to the side also at net to bring up another game point, on which Sinner nails an ace

Djoko starts the next game missing just as easy a FHV and he’s down 0-30 after that. Game goes to deuce, when Sinner misses an easy, half-track FH cc putaway ball. Like the last game, server seals the game with an ace

Never let it be said Jannik Sinner doesn’t give as good as he gets. Djoko’s missed 2 easy volleys in 2 games. Seems unfair for Sinner to have only missed 1. So he throws in another crazy, unnecessary swinging FHV miss to even things up the game after, which takes score to 15-30. Ace restores parity, but a FH UE later, he’s down match point. On which he delivers the matches only double fault

Summing up, an imperious showing from Djokovic in all areas but especially the serve. The best serving I’ve seen from him by some way, up there with the super-tier servers that are usually at least two categories above Djokovic’s mode ‘good serve’

Irresistible serving is joined by typical high quality returning - not only missing next to nothing in his swing zone, but smacking the ball back hard and deep + moving over in a flash to cover wide serves of which there are plenty, and even getting those back with fair authority. Same kinds of serves invariably draw errors from Sinner, whose no slow mover and has a long wing span

Serve-return complex leaves Djokovic lots of room to falter and still stay ahead, but he refuses to falter. A very commanding, bossy showing from the back, with the FH particularly powerful. Sinner’s BH holds close to even, but his FH is stomped down

Not a bad match from Sinner, but he’s thoroughly outclassed, with his opponent better at him in virtually all areas - serve, return, FH and BH

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Sinner was awful, unforced errors whenever he's under pressure. Djokovic served tremendously but the rest of his game wasn't even tested much.

 

[StrongRule]

As usual, OP is strongly pro-Djokovic, ignoring what actually happened. I stopped taking him seriously after his claim that Murray played well in RG 2016 final.

 

[ppma]

Not surprising.
Sinner was a UE machine in that match. It could be easily seen along the match. The same for Alcaraz in the SF.

 

[jl809]

Will there be a double match report with the group stage a la Fed Vs Djoker 2015?

 

[RS]

Will there be a double match report with the group stage a la Fed Vs Djoker 2015?

This one was done I think

 

[Jonesy]

Sadly Sinner couldn't bring his best level to this match, and that is what he needs to beat the best player of all time.

Novak didn't need to shift to third gear as his second gear is already of the highest level. That is what happens when you have all the fundamentals in perfect balance of excelence.

Turin surface is a faster than London and that suits players like Novak and Sinner to a T and not so much for Alcaraz.

 

[nolefam_2024]

I hope Nole gets to 25 sooner than later. I don't want this redhead to block Nole. No charisma

 

[tudwell]

Sinner was awful, unforced errors whenever he's under pressure. Djokovic served tremendously but the rest of his game wasn't even tested much.

I think Sinner played about as well as he was allowed to for the first 1.5 sets. The last 0.5 set, though... Djokovic finally comes back down to earth and Sinner has real opportunities to get into the match and decides it's the perfect time for his level to plummet even further than Novak's. Yikes.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

I think Sinner played about as well as he was allowed to for the first 1.5 sets. The last 0.5 set, though... Djokovic finally comes back down to earth and Sinner has real opportunities to get into the match and decides it's the perfect time for his level to plummet even further than Novak's. Yikes.

Mugged up both the only break and the only chance to do something on return when Djokovic served for the first set. Djokovic didn't even have to do much with Sinner hitting himself out. Then the last three games of the second set were an errorfest, as you alluded to. Poor stuff altogether.

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

Djokovic won both the important matches in pretty straightforward fashion.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Mugged up both the only break and the only chance to do something on return when Djokovic served for the first set. Djokovic didn't even have to do much with Sinner hitting himself out. Then the last three games of the second set were an errorfest, as you alluded to. Poor stuff altogether.

Sinner went from Vienna win to Bercy 2 match wins to 4 straight match wins in ATP finals and then 3/4 more singles wins in DC.

Only one to stop him was Nole. And Nole thrashed him. I am sure Djokovic have to do something for Sinner to hit himself out.

 

[Rovesciarete]

This was one of the most dominant displays of serve+ I have ever seen by Nole and it is highly unlikely we will see a repeat soon. Thanks for the great posts @Waspsting!

 

[BeatlesFan]

I hope Nole gets to 25 sooner than later.

That's why you'll be on baby Rune team when Novak retires.

 

[Neptune]

As usual, OP is strongly pro-Djokovic, ignoring what actually happened. I stopped taking him seriously after his claim that Murray played well in RG 2016 final.

Even Match Stats/Report can inflict butthurt

 

[Waspsting]

Djokovic beat Carlos Alcaraz 6-3, 6-2 in the semi-final

Alcaraz had topped his group with a 2-1 record. Djokovic had finished second with a 2-1 record behind Sinner. Djokovic was ranked #1, Alcaraz #2

Djokovic won 64 points, Alcaraz 47

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (37/55) 67%
- 1st serve points won (30/37) 81%
- 2nd serve points won (10/18) 56%
- Aces 3 (1 possibly not clean), Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (19/55) 35%

Alcaraz...
- 1st serve percentage (47/56) 84%
- 1st serve points won (29/47) 62%
- 2nd serve points won (3/9) 33%
- Aces 10
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (19/56) 34%

Serve Pattern
Djokovic served...
- to FH 50%
- to BH 48%
- to Body 2%

Alcaraz served...
- to FH 56%
- to BH 38%
- to Body 5%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 36 (19 FH, 17 BH)
- 9 Errors, comprising...
- 2 Unforced (2 FH)
- 7 Forced (4 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (36/55) 65%

Alcaraz made...
- 35 (16 FH, 19 BH), including 2 runaround BHs
- 15 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (3 FH, 3 BH)
- 9 Forced (5 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (35/54) 65%

Break Points
Djokovic 3/8 (4 games)
Alcaraz 0/4 (2 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Djokovic 9 (3 FH, 1 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 2 OH)
Alcaraz 12 (7 FH, 1 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 2 OH)

Djokovic's FHs - 1 cc pass, 1 cc/inside-in, 1 inside-out
- BH - 1 inside-out/dtl

- 2 swinging FHVs - 1 non-net cc, 1 inside-out
- 1 OH on the bounce

Alcaraz' FHs - 3 cc, 1 inside-out, 1 inside-in, 1 drop shot, 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl at net
- BH - 1 dtl

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Djokovic 15
- 9 Unforced (4 FH, 3 BH, 2 FHV)
- 6 Forced (4 FH, 2 BH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 53.3

Alcaraz 35
- 23 Unforced (13 FH, 7 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 12 Forced (4 FH, 7 BH, 1 BHV)... with 2 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.7

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 11/13 (85%) at net, including...
- 3/5 (60%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves

Alcaraz was...
- 8/15 (53%) at net, including...
- 1/4 (25%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves

Match Report
Similar match to the final, which I’ll use as a frame of reference to describe action. Djokovic’s serve is merely his standard good, while rest of his showing is of similar quality and nature as in the final. Alcaraz is up and down, somewhat impatient and doesn’t seem to know how to proceed at times

Its not as one sided as the scoreline looks. First set is competitive - Djokovic grabs the only break, while saving break points in another game and having one other tough hold. Second set is up & down from Alcaraz - more down than up. Fair to say he’s poor overall, though the highs make for some riveting tennis. Djoko remains the machine

Without a 50-plus % freebies, Djoko has more room to shine in court action. 9 winners, 9 UEs, forcing 12 errors from the quick, defensively stout Alcs is a much better looking yield than the final. And again, the losers UEs account for bulk of points. 23 from Alcs, Putting that in perspective, there are -

- 21 winners from both players combined
- 18 FEs from both players combined
- both players have 19 unreturned serves each (also, 1 double)
- and Djoko with his miserly 9 UEs

Stats have come out neatly in that two players are close to equal in most areas

- unreturneds - Djoko 35%, Alcs 34%
- double faults - both 1
- winners - Djoko 9, Alcs 12
- errors forced, Djoko 12, Alcs 6
(- hence, aggressively won points - Djoko 21, Alcs 18), leaving the big one…
- UEs - Djoko 9, Alcs 23

Again, like the final, FHs are epicenter of action. Djoko again very solid with 4 UEs and just as powerful. Alcs has 13

Difference from the final is that Alcs’ FH seems to have potential to hang in with Djoko’s. While Sinner was simply out-matched - Djoko matter-of-factly powering the ball deep and hard in whatever direction he feels like, Sinner nowhere near as strong of shot - Alcs seems like he might be upto trading FHs competitively. ‘Seems’ and ‘does’ are two different things as stats indicate

Like the final, very strong showing from the Djoko FH. There’s a stat that pops up about half way into 2nd set showing his average FH is doing 80mph. Average FH. Including defensive gets and retrievals which would be nowhere near that high average

Doesn’t take the eye like a spate of winners, but average 80mph FH, while going any which way the player wants, with exemplary depth and 4 UEs is close to perfect tennis. No openings for opponent to attack against it, constantly under pressuring and no hints of a let up. How many balls does Djoko drop short of the service line all match? Other than when defending, negligible. At 80mph on average (including defensive shots). For that matter, even the defensive gets are rarely short - he doesn’t neutralize with them, but doesn’t leave wide open shot for winner either

And to be clear, Djoko is aggressive with the FH (BH too), just in a controlled way. His dtl shots or even attacking longline change-ups force errors or he comes in behind them to finish point. Measured stuff. Better than swinging for a winner to a corner against a hard hitting opponent. In fact, it’s the kill shot where Djoko is off, which doesn’t matter much as he rarely indulges that type of thing

Extremely high 53.3 UEFI for Djoko, with 5/9 UEs being winner attempts. A poor hit rate, given he has just 9 winners. That’s outweighed by the minimal 2 neutral UEs (Alcs has 10)

Again, 2 neutral UEs, in conjunction with the kind of power and depth Djoko plays with like clockwork, while finishing points efficiently with error forcing dtl shots and net approaches is close to perfect baseline-based tennis (he’s perfect 8/8 at net from rallies)

Unlike Sinner, Alcs FH is a powerhouse of its own, though without Djoko’s matter-of-fact sense of normalcy about it. When he goes big, its with obvious effort, if not strain. There’s no obvious reason he can’t keep trading stock FHs with Djoko (as opposed to Sinner, where its apparent his FH will give up weak balls sooner rather than later if it doesn’t give up the error first - which it does)

Comparing Alcs to Sinner, its unfair to discredit Alcs for failing to hang in with Djoko, but excuse Sinner - on grounds that Alcs has ability to match Djoko’s hitting, while Sinner doesn’t. That is how it appears though. Sinner would have to find a way to avoid FH rallies against the stronger hitter. Alcs, not necessarily, he’d just have to play better (that is, keep ball in play longer, while maintaining hitting strength)

He doesn’t do a good job keeping the ball in play. Its not likely he can do it as well as Djoko even if he did do better. The point is, his consistency is not good by an absolute standard, independent of his opponent - that’s discredit to him. As opposed to being good by same standard, but still trailing the even higher (and exceptionally good) standard of his opponent, in which case, he might still get shorter end of the stick, but wouldn’t be because he’s poor, just that his opponent is better

As things play out - excellent, stock stuff from Djoko, and below par from Alcs. That’s the gist

 

[Waspsting]

Before all that comes serve-return matters, which are substantially different from the final. The hit-you-in-the-face stat is Alc serving at 84%

Top stuff. And its not because he takes anything off the serve too. His is a decent to good serve, not as good as Djoko’s. Got 10 aces or 21% first serves. Sinner, a bigger server, has 18% in the final

Both returners read the others serve well and neither are caught out by direction. Alc’s even has 2 runaround BH returns. The rarest of shots

Both players serve majority to FH, which is unusual

Majority to FH is counter to standard operating procedure. Like Djoko, Alcs seems to be equally strong across wings. Looking at his rallying, one would think following standard procedure of majority to BH would be best bet against him - along simple lines of BHs not being as hard hitting as FHs by default, even for an equal-across-wings player. There’s only mild and inconclusive evidence that it’s a good idea. Equal consistency across wings on the return from Alcs who gives up errors off in almost exact line with how many serves he faces per wing. He does hit the BHs a bit harder

Doesn’t seem any reason for him not to be able to hammer FHs harder than BH returns. Assuming Djoko knows what he’s doing (a pretty safe assumption), maybe something for Alcs to work on… he should be able to strike FH returns harder than BHs

To be clear, his FH return is just fine of force. But if his BH is as firm, he’s either over-performing with it, or under-performing with the FH, relative to potential

Alcs serves even more to the FH at 56% than Djoko does, but that one’s old hat - Djoko’s general pattern is being more consistent of BH, but harder hitting with FH - there is no good way to serve to him, just different ones. Way Alcs plays in general, its not at all a sure thing he knows this or has any solid reason for the choice. He does not come across as a smart player or one who knows what he’s doing or why. Players used to winning by simply overpowering opponents often don’t

Still good returning from Djoko, as in the final and he’s joined by Alcs in that. Against 84% first serves, not much weak stuff to go after (Sinner’s second serve was big enough that same is true of the final). Still moving over to reach and bop back good serves. Alcs’ returning is similar - reads Djoko’s directions, moves superbly, and smacks a few damagingly. He’s more apt to go wide than Djoko with it (Sinner in final has little scope to do so against zoning serving)

Djoko with just 3 aces is indicator of Alcs reading his serve - this will be important moving forward

All in context of good serving from both on a fast court and server getting better of returner. 84% first serves in is key to Alcs being better server on whole and for freebies to remain equal, Djoko must be the better returner

Return UEs - Djoko 2, Alcs 6

Finally, Alcs’ up & downess. He gets very choppy in the second set. Not quite spraying the ball, but closer to it than being steady. It would take patience to keep rallying with Djoko playing with machine consistency while delivering powerful stock shots. Alcs doesn’t have it and is apt to do do something rash, unlikely to pay off (and ends up not doing so)

Still, there’s no obvious alternative

Alcs has 6 attacking errors for forcing 6 errors (Djoko has 2 for forcing 12) and 7 winner attempt UEs for 12 winners (Djoko’s similar with 5 and 9). Against back drop of neutral UEs of Djoko 2, Alcs 10

The neutral UEs is the groundwork, as it usually is in baseline contests. It favouring Djoko makes being proactive a must for Alcs. He can put shoulder to the wheel and grind with more determination - there’s nothing in his form or strength of shot to suggest he’d be outdone 10-2 on basic errors - or he can turn to taking risks and attacking (there not being much on offer to readily attack). Good serve at 84% in count is one way of creating attacking chances, but that’s kept down some by Djoko’s strong returning. 62% first serves won isn’t great on this court. Djoko has 81%

This is the ‘squeezing’ thing Djokovic does at his best. Alcs gets sloppy to a blackmark degree, but finding an alternative (other than generic ‘play better’) isn’t so easy

Match Progression
Alcs starts the match with a bang, reaching 15-40 with 3 winners (OH, FH cc and BH dtl after a BH runaround return). Blinks from the baseline - 1 FH, 1 BH - on both break points, both second serve points, before good serves sees Djoko hold the opening game

Comfy holds from then on. Djoko comes to net off third ball when drawing soft return and scores with choice dtl error forcing shots. Alcs gets the odd big return off. Meanwhile, Alcs can’t seem to miss his first serve. He makes his first 14 and 18/19 from start. Djoko endures another 10 point hold, where he’s down 0-30. Alcs misses routine 1st return and a not-difficult volley to fall behind 40-30. Couple poor aggressive errors from Djoko prolongs the game beyond that. Penultimate point, Djoko’s at net with Alcs’ in good position to pass, but Djoko moves the right way everytime to make the volley. Seems more like familiarity with Alc’s patterns than anticipation at work. Djoko holds with a serve-volleying, forced return error

Lovely, casual third ball BH inside-out/dtl winner by Djoko awhile later. Score is 40-15, and he’d missed a sitter of a FH putaway point before. It takes him to 4-3

Then the break. Alcs is down 15-30 after a couple of good returns (the second one particularly so). And Alcs finally comes down to his second serve for the remaining 3 points - missing a regulation cc BH third ball and a BH winner attempt hands the break over. Djoko serves out to love

1 break in the set, with Djoko not getting into any other return game. Alcs having 2 break points in 1 game and taking Djoko to 10 points in another. Alcs making 18/22 first serve. Awhile later, commentator calls it an easy set for Djokovic. Brilliant

Second set is hodge-podge from Alcs, with Djoko remaining solidly strong. Poor error game laced with sloppy errors gets Alcs broken early on to fall behind 1-2

There’s an interesting incident in the game itself. At deuce, with Alcs just having aced away a break point, a neutral rally develops on rare second serve point. Chair calls Alcs’ ball long, he challenges, the ball was in, replay point, first serve ace. No reaction from Djoko. Wouldn’t blame him for being angry at the Chair’s call. They’re supposed to only overrule (or make a call when linesperson hasn’t) in case of a “clear mistake”. This one makes no other calls all match - except at deuce, on a second serve point for a server who serves 84% for the match. As Djoko ends up breaking later, it doesn’t come to anything but very poor stuff from the Chair here

Its from start of this game that Alcs’ becomes hectic, impatient, loose, rash in his shot choices and errors. He’s down break point again in his next service game, but manages to hold with strong plays - third ball FH inside-in winner starting it, a serve-volley point ending it

Funny incident - if you know a bit about Djokovic’s habits - in this game too. Alcs serves a let - ball essentially unaffected by the lightest of touches of the net on its way over wide. Call is instant, Djoko’s heard it as he plays his return dtl for what would almost certainly be a winner if point were live. Yet he almost never plays returns like this, preferring to go down the middle and deep

Saving grace of the set is the game after, a furious, high end one of Alcs assaulting and Djoko handling it. FH inside-out and FHV winners takes Alcs to 15-40. He misses a makeably difficult return on first break point, but has control of a hard hitting rally on the second when he chooses to come in. Bullet of a FH cc pass winner from Djoko is his reward. Next point, Djoko hits a remarkable swinging FHV winner from no-man’s land - the angle on the shot sharp before holding with a strong serve that doesn’t come back

Rattled Alcs is broken again right after - opening game with 2 UEs and ending with 2 more, with 4 points in between, to make score 2-5. Djoko serves out to 15, finishing with a putaway OH on the bounce

Summing up, another high end showing from Djokovic - similar to the one in the final, but with the serve down to normal strength, which allows his court game to shine through more. Ground game is hard hitting rock, that effectively attacks in measured, minimal risk way while constantly keeping up the pressure and giving next to no opening to his opponent

Alcaraz stays with Djokovic for more than half the match before getting flustered and then sloppy. A steelier commitment to scrap for as long and as hard as needed would be more becoming a world #2, Wimbledon champion and player who by now, ought to know what to expect from this opponent

 

[Waspsting]

Will there be a double match report with the group stage a la Fed Vs Djoker 2015?

Think the round robin one deserves a thread of its own. semi fits better

Novak didn't need to shift to third gear as his second gear is already of the highest level. That is what happens when you have all the fundamentals in perfect balance of excelence.

You got it, exactly

Turin surface is a faster than London and that suits players like Novak and Sinner to a T and not so much for Alcaraz.

While I prefer the faster surfaces, I've always felt YEC shouldn't be held in overly fast conditions. You've got guys qualifying based on year-long records - fast, slow and everything in between - so it seems inappropriate to hold the event in extreme conditions

'90s was worse, where every year the French Open champion and maybe 1 or 2 others qualified on strenght of their clay results. And then they dropped them off on these lightning fast carpet courts

This court in Turin looks like the fastest on tour now. If that does't change, you'll get a few serve-bot fests on it in years to come

Medvedev vs Zverev final, both serving at 80%... what a thrill

That's why you'll be on baby Rune team when Novak retires.

Hi Beatles, how've you been?

About Rune... he looks like someone to me, I was wondering if its just me or others see it too

 

[The Guru]

A pleasure as always. That final was the best HC match from Novak this year imo. Absolute class performance.

 

[Angrybirdstar]

Way Alcs plays in general, its not at all a sure thing he knows this or has any solid reason for the choice. He does not come across as a smart player or one who knows what he’s doing or why.

think his Madrid and Wimbledon matches against Djokovic are better displays of his tennis brain. have you seen the Alcaraz-Sinner USO '22 match/do you currently plan to chart it at some point? curious to hear your take on the overall level relative to the hype

 

[tudwell]

Alcs serves even more to the FH at 56% than Djoko does, but that one’s old hat - Djoko’s general pattern is being more consistent of BH, but harder hitting with FH - there is no good way to serve to him, just different ones. Way Alcs plays in general, its not at all a sure thing he knows this or has any solid reason for the choice. He does not come across as a smart player or one who knows what he’s doing or why. Players used to winning by simply overpowering opponents often don’t

I think that's a little unfair – I mean yeah, he's a much more intuitive player than someone like Nadal or Djokovic. He's more like young, trigger-happy Fed (and not just pre-dominance Fed but even into 2004 he was playing remarkably loose and free from the forehand side especially, I think). He still has plenty of ironing out to do when it comes to shot selection and the like, but the numbers here tell a pretty clear story re: his service. If out of 55 (non-double fault) service points he served 56% to the forehand, that's 31 times? And Djokovic got 19 into play – 61%. By contrast he hit 21 (I'm assuming) serves to the Djokovic backhand and 17 came back. That's over 80%. (Edit: I guess that doesn't account for the body serves – a couple of those forehands or backhands may have been off of what you labeled body serves, but I don't imagine that changes the stats too terribly much.) Even the least analytical player is going to feel the difference there and lean into it.

Although I find the Alcaraz service game rather interesting. I don't have the stats, but just as a casual fan who enjoys watching most of his matches, it seems to me Alcaraz hits the bulk of his aces out wide on the deuce court. Which I find intriguing because I don't think he's a naturally great slice server – he's not a bad one, but a lot of his slices, even the ones that go for aces, are not very shallow in the court, not a particularly wide angle, etc. It's more that his opponents are leaning the other way to protect the heater up the middle. And his service motion is very much one that looks like it's about to produce a kick serve, or at most a flat serve, even when it doesn't, so I think even the best returners won't necessarily be able to read where he's going and hedge their bets to protect the 130 up the middle, only to leave the wide serve open. Maybe I'm way off on that, but it seems like, paradoxically almost, he hits most of his aces with the wide slice serve precisely because it's not his strength (not unlike Nadal nabbing the ace with the flat banger up the middle on the ad court, I suppose).

 

[RS]

A pleasure as always. That final was the best HC match from Novak this year imo. Absolute class performance.

Would you say any matches on clay and grass were better? Seems you were specific to HC in that post but I assume that the answer is still no.

 

[The Sinner]

Djoko was a serving machine in the final! You just can’t give the Djokovic a second chance, he’ll ‘eat you alive’ if you do.

 

[Angrybirdstar]

Like Djoko, Alcs seems to be equally strong across wings. Looking at his rallying, one would think following standard procedure of majority to BH would be best bet against him - along simple lines of BHs not being as hard hitting as FHs by default, even for an equal-across-wings player. There’s only mild and inconclusive evidence that it’s a good idea. Equal consistency across wings on the return from Alcs who gives up errors off in almost exact line with how many serves he faces per wing. He does hit the BHs a bit harder

Doesn’t seem any reason for him not to be able to hammer FHs harder than BH returns. Assuming Djoko knows what he’s doing (a pretty safe assumption), maybe something for Alcs to work on… he should be able to strike FH returns harder than BHs

To be clear, his FH return is just fine of force. But if his BH is as firm, he’s either over-performing with it, or under-performing with the FH, relative to potential

Alcs has returned Djoko superbly on skimming, lower bouncing courts (particulalry Wimbledon), but struggled as ball gets up around his chest and shoulders (here, Madrid and even Cincinnati)

was just thinking about these quotes again. Alcaraz's hard court defense and counterpunching can be a bit underwhelming relative to expectations because he doesn't get the ball wide, deep, or fast enough, and i think that's because of his technique and racket specs. his forehand isn't built to absorb pace (covered up on grass by slice/low bounce and clay by the surface dampening pace) and it requires more time to accelerate - think this explains the relative disparity in ballstriking on return. meanwhile, his backhand absorbs, redirects, and generates pace quite well (which is why he tends to approach off returns on that wing), but its natural inconsistency (particularly in rallies) can be baited out and exacerbated by high balls (even though generally they are more comfortable for him than medium/lower height balls), which is why he can be so outstanding on 2nd return in some matches and then so mediocre in others - think this explains the return height question.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1868657312661205199

including this graphic about '24 backhand consistency and winner rate for some extra insight

 

[Waspsting]

was just thinking about these quotes again. Alcaraz's hard court defense and counterpunching can be a bit underwhelming relative to expectations because he doesn't get the ball wide, deep, or fast enough, and i think that's because of his technique and racket specs. his forehand isn't built to absorb pace (covered up on grass by slice/low bounce and clay by the surface dampening pace) and it requires more time to accelerate - think this explains the relative disparity in ballstriking on return. meanwhile, his backhand absorbs, redirects, and generates pace quite well (which is why he tends to approach off returns on that wing), but its natural inconsistency (particularly in rallies) can be baited out and exacerbated by high balls (even though generally they are more comfortable for him than medium/lower height balls), which is why he can be so outstanding on 2nd return in some matches and then so mediocre in others - think this explains the return height question.

I don't know what is going on with Alcaraz' returning

Is there a player of his stature who's been so unsettled in his basic postion? He cycles through from well-back to inside-court and most points in between. Would have expected him to have found his a position (whatever it is) that he's most comfy with and settled to returning from there as norm, with only necessary adjustments

Instead, he seems to go through a roster of positions per mach
His best aggressive return is early taken BH inside-in. Good lot of point ending return with that one

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1868657312661205199

including this graphic about '24 backhand consistency and winner rate for some extra insight

This is for all BHs, not just the return, right?

Medvedev so low in winner rate surprises me. He hits a good lot of BH winners
The top winner rates is in line with my ideas of pointed BH aggression being a fool's game. Who are those guys?
Nice to see Gasquet still doing well. He's always had beautiful BH

 

[Angrybirdstar]

Is there a player of his stature who's been so unsettled in his basic postion?

the closest i can think of is Bruguera, who had the clay courter background to be willing to drop well back, the requisite returning skills to be able to stand in, and the inconsistency that would result in constant oscillation

This is for all BHs, not just the return, right?

yep all backhands. thought it was notable how low Alcaraz was on consistency compared to the rest of the top 10, where exactly Dimitrov and Gasquet fell compared to the elite 2 handed backhands, and how Fritz might have taken a page from Medvedev's book in terms of his backhand rallying making him stylistically uncomfortable for Zverev

Medvedev so low in winner rate surprises me. He hits a good lot of BH winners

hmm you might have seen a particularly aggressive cross-section of his matches? i think he's been in that realm of low winner rate for the past few years and especially this year

 

[socallefty]

was just thinking about these quotes again. Alcaraz's hard court defense and counterpunching can be a bit underwhelming relative to expectations because he doesn't get the ball wide, deep, or fast enough, and i think that's because of his technique and racket specs. his forehand isn't built to absorb pace (covered up on grass by slice/low bounce and clay by the surface dampening pace) and it requires more time to accelerate - think this explains the relative disparity in ballstriking on return. meanwhile, his backhand absorbs, redirects, and generates pace quite well (which is why he tends to approach off returns on that wing), but its natural inconsistency (particularly in rallies) can be baited out and exacerbated by high balls (even though generally they are more comfortable for him than medium/lower height balls), which is why he can be so outstanding on 2nd return in some matches and then so mediocre in others - think this explains the return height question.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1868657312661205199

including this graphic about '24 backhand consistency and winner rate for some extra insight

Two things that are striking for me is how Djokovic at his age is still in the top right corner where you want to be and how mediocre Alcaraz is with so many players hitting more winners than him and/or being more consistent than him on the BH wing. I wouldn’t have guessed it.

 

[Waspsting]

yep all backhands. thought it was notable how low Alcaraz was on consistency compared to the rest of the top 10, where exactly Dimitrov and Gasquet fell compared to the elite 2 handed backhands, and how Fritz might have taken a page from Medvedev's book in terms of his backhand rallying making him stylistically uncomfortable for Zverev

Dimitrov yes, but Gasquet seems to be doing swimmingly in both areas, relative to any-handed BHs
Which does surprise me. Without having looked at him a lot (and basically 0 this year), wouldn't expect a 1-hander to do that well of consistency
By that chart anyway, he's got the best BH for the year

I'm curious who the outlier low consistency guy is, hovering down around 72

I didn't understand your point regarding Fritz. Could you amplyfy that?

 

[Angrybirdstar]

Dimitrov yes, but Gasquet seems to be doing swimmingly in both areas, relative to any-handed BHs

oh yeah i didn't mean to imply with "fell" that Gasquet had done poorly

Without having looked at him a lot (and basically 0 this year), wouldn't expect a 1-hander to do that well of consistency
By that chart anyway, he's got the best BH for the year

i would expect prime Gasquet to have been that good or even better on consistency, but '24 Gasquet who went 4-14 on the main tour, not so much lol

interestingly in '23 Gasquet's backhand was still rated #7 on tour by the (dubious) Tennis Insights algorithm:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1737891043402555645

I'm curious who the outlier low consistency guy is, hovering down around 72

apparently Reilly Opelka! the next lowest are Chris Eubanks, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, and Nicolas Moreno De Alboran, so it's a servebotty zone

I didn't understand your point regarding Fritz. Could you amplyfy that?

i think Zverev doesn't like rallying against Medvedev's relatively flat and low-pace but ultra-consistent backhands, because he can't get the usual value out of his favored pattern of backhand grinding/ball-bashing, and Fritz's backhand shares those relevant traits (though less extreme in all senses) of Medvedev's backhand