Duel Match Stats/Reports - Federer vs Cilic, Wimbledon final, 2017 & Australian Open final, 2018

[Waspsting]

Roger Federer beat Marin Cilic 6-3, 6-1, 6-4 in the Wimbledon final, 2017 on grass

It was was Federer’s record breaking 8th Wimbledon title and then record extending 19 Slam title. Cilic was playing his second Slam final. The had met the previous year in the quarter-final, with Federer coming back from 2 sets down to win. They would also meet at the next Australian Open final, with Federer winning in 5 sets

Federer won 96 points, Cilic 64

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (53/70) 76%
- 1st serve points won (43/53) 81%
- 2nd serve points won (12/17) 71%
- Aces 8, Service Winners 2
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (36/70) 51%

Cilic...
- 1st serve percentage (55/90) 61%
- 1st serve points won (35/55) 64%
- 2nd serve points won (14/35) 40%
- Aces 5
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (29/90) 32%

Serve Patterns
Federer served...
- to FH 47%
- to BH 49%
- to Body 4%

Cilic served...
- to FH 28%
- to BH 63%
- to Body 9%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 58 (20 FH, 38 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 2 Winners (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 24 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (2 FH, 3 BH)
- 19 Forced (5 FH, 14 BH)
- Return Rate (58/87) 67%

Cilic made...
- 32 (13 FH, 19 BH)
- 26 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (7 FH, 3 BH)
- 16 Forced (6 FH, 10 BH)
- Return Rate (32/68) 47%

Break Points
Federer 5/10 (6 games)
Cilic 0/1

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Federer 12 (5 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
Cilic 11 (5 FH, 2 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 1 OH)

Federer's FHs - 2 cc, 1 inside-out and 2 inside-in (1 return)
- BHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 1 inside-out return, 1 drop shot and 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl at net

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a first volley BHV

- the FHV was a swinging, non-net shot

Cilic's FHs - 2 inside-out, 2 inside-in and 1 longline
- BHs - 1 dtl and 1 drop shot

- 3 from serve-volley points, all first 'volleys' (1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 1 OH)

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Federer 22
- 13 Unforced (5 FH, 6 BH, 2 BHV)
- 9 Forced (4 FH, 5 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 50.8

Cilic 45
- 32 Unforced (20 FH, 11 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 BH at net
- 13 Forced (5 FH, 4 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)... with 1 FH running-down-drop shot (not at net), 1 BH at net and 1 FHV from baseline
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.8

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for this two match is keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was...
- 9/11 (82%) at net, including...
- 5/6 (83%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 4/5 (80%) off 1st serve and...
- 1/1 off 2nd serve

Cilic was....
- 13/22 (59%) at net, including...
- 8/15 (53%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves

Match Report
Historic for Federer winning his record breaking 8th Wimbledon title, but a forgettable no-contest with Cilic folding early. After a brief bright start where Cilic hammers returns and groundstrokes, he falls apart. Federer does the needful with his serve and keeping ball in play - and waits not long for Cilic to falter

Cilic's main problem is movement. As early as middle of first set, he's showing signs of not moving well. It gets progressively worse. From memory, he had a problem with blisters on his feet (copy I watched cuts out changeovers) - and it shows
Key stats are Fed's 51% unreturned rate and Cilic with 32 UEs in play

Regarding the first, its about as mild a display of serving as you'll see for a figure like that. Fed's not far short of serving 2nd serve calibre first serves healthy lot of time, requiring no more than a step at most to reach at no great pace. Serving relatively gently, he's able to get huge 76% first serves in

10/16 of Cilic's return errors have been marked UEs. And the some of the 16 that haven't are due to Fed serve-volleying (he's 5/6 on the play), not necessarily the quality of the serve shot. A serving display of this calibre directed at someone like Andy Murray might be good for 20% unreturned. Just very poor returning from Cilic, mostly due to movement troubles

Regarding the 32 UEs in play, putting that in context -
- Fed's huge 52% unreturned serves accounts for just a bit more 36 points
- Cilic's substantial 32% unreturned comes to 29
- The two players combine for 23 winners
- The two combine for 22 FEs
- Fed has 13 UEs, so all errors sans Cilic's UEs amount to just 3 more than Cilic's UEs

If anything, those numbers are under-representing Cilic's showing. With his movements so poor, UEs have been marked leniently and when Cilic has been unable to reach routine shots, they've been generously marked FEs

On not-down side, some powerful serving from Cilic. He's earned his 32% unreturned - just 5/29 of them are Fed UEs. Early on, he smacks a few returns powerfully, forcing Fed on defensive. And he's hard hitting from the baseline to pressure Fed too early on, though prone to missing. Later on, he's still hitting hard but missing a lot more

Cilic adjusts to his physical problems by being more aggressive. Looks to serve-volley and does so 15 times or 30% of first serves and otherwise come to net. Movement remains a problem, and he's caught out of position coming in by blocked returns. His instincts for coming in from rallying leads to similar problems

4 FEs for Cilic in forecour to just 2 UEs. The FEs are as much about not being able to get into position properly as particularly good passes from Fed

Fed on the other side plays a cool game and doesn't overreach. Struggles to cope with Cilic's power groundies and returns early, but is content to hang in. As Cilic's play worsens, Fed remains cool

51% unreturned rate means clockwork easy holds and he faces just 1 break point. Smart not to go for too much - why would you when what your doing is working so well? The odd serve-volley thrown in. From the back, he keeps the ball in play - and waits for Cilic to miss, and it he doesn't have to wait long

Breakdown of UEs
- Defensive - Cilic 1
- Neutral - Fed 6, Cilic 13
- Attacking - Cilic 9
- Winner Attempts - Fed 7, Cilic 9

0 attacking UEs sums up Fed's groundgame. In context of most of Cilic's 12 FEs being as much about poor movement as the shot that draws it. Fed's happy to just keep ball in court... its a good way to go with a 2:1 advantage in neutral consistency
He goes for the odd winner. 7 UEs while hitting 12 winners isn't particularly good
And he's not particularly strong defensively, struggling with and giving up errors or short balls to Cilic's power hits

Cilic is a disaster all around and his 32 UEs is more than the 25 points Fed wins via winners and forcing errors. Still, Fed with healthy +14 winners + errors forced/UE differential. Cilic is -12

Match Progression
Match starts brighly with Cilic serving big, and taking punishing big cuts on the return and off the ground off both sides. He misses balls, but Fed struggles to cope against the heat

After trading deuce holds (no break points) to open, its Cilic who has first break point in game 4, after scoring with a wide, point ending return and Fed giving up a BH UE after having done well to keep rallying going from defensive position. Cilic misses 2nd serve return on the break point - and Fed starts a 17 service points winning streak

Cilic leads in a return game just twice more for rest of match - both 0-15

Fed breaks right after. Point of the match features players exchanging drop shots net to net before Fed comes away with dtl winner, to go up 0-30 aftera deep return won him first point. Couple of loose Cilic errors seals the break

Beautiful BH drop shot winner by Fed, perfectly disguised awhile later. Cilic's movements decline noticable by end of set and he's broken again to lose it, being unable to get into proper postion

Second set is most one-sided of match. Cilic's movements get worse and worse as it goes on. He has a meeting with the referee at a changeover. He's barely moving for returns, and can only make 5/18 returns. Starts serve-volleying regularly, but is caught short coming in and has to deal with awkwardly dropping balls. He holds for only time with a perfect BH1/2V first 'volley' winner serve-volleying, but troubles at net and inability to keep ball in court from back sees him broken twice

Third set is better (it'd be hard to be worse) from Cilic. Serves big and strains to move as needed on service games, taking a few big hefty hits. Scores a gorgeous BH inside-out drop shot winner. He remains stationary on return though, and Fed wisely doesn't go for much and still gets 50% unreturned

Cil is broken in game seven, missing 2 FHs - and its all Fed needs as he holds twice more to close out the match

Summing up, disappointing contest with Federer adequately doing the needful with his scope to shine beyond that capped by Cilic's very poor showing. Physical problems - from memory, blisters on the feet - are at heart of Cilic's performance that's defined with very poor movement, particularly on the return

Federer holds serve like clockwork, serving conservatively and being able to count on the not being able to move to or make returns. And Federer blocking returns back and waiting for Cilic to slap them out of play to get broken sooner or later makes up the day

 

[dapchai]

IIRC Cilic cried a bit during MTO. Heartbreaking for him. Watching live a first couple of games, I thought this should be a fun and competitive one...

 

[Milanez82]

Funny that Federer only had 12 winners
Is that a low for a Wimbledon champ?

 

[Third Serve]

Very forgettable final.

 

[abmk]

Funny that Federer only had 12 winners
Is that a low for a Wimbledon champ?

24 winners as per Wasp above.
12 off the ground, 2 off the return, 10 on serve
Correction: 12 off ground+return, 10 on serve.
so total 22.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

24 winners as per Wasp above.
12 off the ground, 2 off the return, 10 on serve

The winner figure includes returns, so it's 12 non-serve (incl 2 on return) + 10 off serve = 22 total.
A small figure indeed, but no need to do more since Cilic was poor from mid-late 1st set (stepped up on serve in the third but still no threat on return as Wasp correctly pointed out).

 

[abmk]

The winner figure includes returns, so it's 12 non-serve (incl 2 on return) + 10 off serve = 22 total.
A small figure indeed, but no need to do more since Cilic was poor from mid-late 1st set (stepped up on serve in the third but still no threat on return as Wasp correctly pointed out).

ah yes.
22 winners total as per Wasp.
Edited.

Edit: Federer was forcing many errors from Cilic.
per official, 23 winners, 50 errors forced from Cilic, 23 UEs from Cilic. 96 points for Federer.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

ah yes.
22 winners total as per Wasp.
Edited.

Edit: Federer was forcing many errors from Cilic.
per official, 23 winners, 50 errors forced from Cilic, 23 UEs from Cilic. 96 points for Federer.

Of course did, would be tough not to against Blisterlic.

 

[abmk]

Of course did, would be tough not to against Blisterlic.

Just saying not to be misled by the relatively lower winner count.

 

[Waspsting]

Funny that Federer only had 12 winners
Is that a low for a Wimbledon champ?

Almost certainly - and by far the lowest I know of. All the straight setters I've done -

12 Federer, with 51% unreturned
20 Pete Sampras with 59% unreturned, '97
23 Rafael Nadal with 34% unreturned, '10
25 John McEnroe with 49% unreturned, '84
26 Andy Murray with 26% unreturned, '13
28 Sampras with 53%, '94
28 Murray with 33%, '16
28 Bjorn Borg with 28%, '78
29 Federer with 47%, '03
31 Sampras with 46%, '99
33 Jimmy Connors with 24%, '74
43 McEnroe with 28%, '83
44 Pat Cash with 49%, '87
44 Boris Becker with 31%, '89
48 Borg with 29%, in '76

Gap gets even wider if aces are included

Few points to contextualitize

- easiest time to hit winners is early in rally on service games, so higher the unreturned rate, the lower winner counts tend to be (especially for non serve-volley game)

- Comparitive unreturned rates in winning Wimby finals are all from serve-volley matches. Where server has particularly good shot at hitting winners with their first volley, however little is successfully returned

- Though playing poorly, Cilic at least keeps action on his racquet on his service games. He's the one hitting hard, he's the one missing, reducing Fed's scope to hit winners. Fed would have shots on the return and pass with Cilic serve-volleying so much, but getting the return in low (intentionally or otherwise and largely due to Cilic being slow to move in) is getting him errors first

Still, not a particularly good aggro showing from Fed (given it doesn't have to be with Cilic playing the way he does). He's got 7 winner attempt UEs to go with the 12 winners

To compare, in '09 final he has 52 winners, 7 UEs trying or '12 final with 48 winners, 6 trying. Top-drawer stuff, not abnormal for him

So he has a go, sees it not working too well and tones it down to waiting for errors game. Its smart, given how Cilic is playing. The only way Fed could mess this up is via over-aggression - and there's no chance of that happening if he's not aggressive

Stan Wawrinka somehow managed to find a way to a lose a set in the '14 Australian Open final against an even more gone opponent with looseness. Helps that he was in his 1st Slam final, as opposed to Fed in his - is it 29th or 30th? - final here

The highest unreturned rate I have for Fed is in '19 YEC match with Novak Djokovic and he still has 11 winners (in 2 sets), to go with 57% unreturned

Of all people, Pete Sampras won '93 US Open with just 8 winners, which of the top of my head, is the lowest I've come across in a Slam final winning effort. He had a mountain of aces to go with it, as you'd expect from him

IIRC Cilic cried a bit during MTO. Heartbreaking for him. Watching live a first couple of games, I thought this should be a fun and competitive one...

It was shaping to be a good match early on

From Fed's point of view, I'd say you reach 11 (and later 12) finals, you can expect 1 gimme in there. Especially given the high lot of particularly tough ones he's had (and would go onto have)

I tend to think of injury as something a player is responsible for and a part of the game. As in, pacing their physical resources and manging their health is akin to managing their shots, keeping errors down or first serve-in count high etc.... so tend not to get too sympathetic when something like this happens

To me, a guy getting injured is like a guy playing badly... they've managed something about their long-term game not well. As opposed to being an excuse, with pointless undertones of "if he weren't injured theeen..."

 

[dapchai]

It was shaping to be a good match early on

From Fed's point of view, I'd say you reach 11 (and later 12) finals, you can expect 1 gimme in there. Especially given the high lot of particularly tough ones he's had (and would go onto have)

I tend to think of injury as something a player is responsible for and a part of the game. As in, pacing their physical resources and manging their health is akin to managing their shots, keeping errors down or first serve-in count high etc.... so tend not to get too sympathetic when something like this happens

To me, a guy getting injured is like a guy playing badly... they've managed something about their long-term game not well. As opposed to being an excuse, with pointless undertones of "if he weren't injured theeen..."

My memory from the match was the blisters resulted from Marin slipping on the grass while trying to reach a dropshot from Roger. There were two MTOs IIRC. I would say this was more of an unfortunate incidence than a direct consequence of his playing style; the Wimbledon grass is well known for being slippery and I think he wasn't the first one getting injured from that.

I tend not to say somebody lost because of the injuries he suffered during the match; I agree that would lead to pointless excuses as you said. But if an injury came to somebody unexpectedly I would like to view it as something unfortunate happened; it was a part of the match and we better acknowledge that. And that's why I said it was heartbreaking for Marin.

 

[Waspsting]

Federer beat Cilic 6-2, 6-7(5), 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 in the Australian Open final, 2018 on hard court

It was defending champion Federer’s than record extending 20 Slam title and to date, remains his last. It was and to date remains Cilic’s only final at the event

Federer won 152 points, Cilic 128

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (84/139) 60%
- 1st serve points won (67/84) 79%
- 2nd serve points won (32/55) 58%
- Aces 24 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (65/139) 47%

Cilic...
- 1st serve percentage (88/141) 62%
- 1st serve points won (61/88) 69%
- 2nd serve points won (27/53) 51%
- Aces 17 (1 second serve, 1 not clean), Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (51/141) 36%

Serve Patterns
Federer served...
- to FH 50%
- to BH 46%
- to Body 4%

Cilic served...
- to FH 36%
- to BH 64%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 85 (27 FH, 58 BH), including 1 return-approach
- 4 Winners (2 FH, 2 BH)
- 33 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (3 FH, 7 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 23 Forced (12 FH, 11 BH)
- Return Rate (85/136) 63%

Cilic made...
- 70 (32 FH, 38 BH)
- 5 Winners (3 FH, 2 BH)
- 41 Errors, comprising...
- 14 Unforced (8 FH, 6 BH)
- 27 Forced (10 FH, 17 BH)
- Return Rate (70/135) 52%

Break Points
Federer 6/13 (11 games)
Cilic 2/9 (5 games)

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Federer 16 (7 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV, 3 BHV)
Cilic 28 (16 FH, 5 BH, 3 BHV, 4 OH)

Federer's FHs - 2 cc (1 return), 1 dtl return, 1 inside-out, 2 inside-in (1 at net) and 1 longline
- BHs - 1 cc, 2 dtl (1 return, 1 pass), 1 inside-out return and 1 drop shot

- 2 from serve-volley points (2 FHV), both first volleys

Cilic's FHs - 6 cc (2 returns, 1 pass), 1 cc/inside-in, 4 inside-out, 3 inside-in (1 return), 1 longline and 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl at net
- BHs - 2 cc returns, 2 dtl and 1 inside-out

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Federer 45
- 29 Unforced (13 FH, 16 BH)
- 16 Forced (6 FH, 9 BH, 1 BHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.2

Cilic 66
- 50 Unforced (21 FH, 27 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)... with 1 FH at net
- 16 Forced (6 FH, 9 BH, 1 FHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 49.6

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for match are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was...
- 13/17 (76%) at net, including...
- 7/7 (100%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 6/6 (100%) off 1st serve and...
- 1/1 off 2nd serve
---
- 1/1 return-approaching

Cilic was 13/18 (72%) at net

Match Report
Not a very good match but an interesting one and given the scoreline, about as tense as possible. Federer serves well, manages to get good lot of tough returns in play to Cilic’s BH - and lets Cilic make a mess of things (mis)-hammering groundstrokes from the back. Match is similar to the Wimbledon final - statisitcally and otherwise - despite a fit Cilic whose poor showing off the ground along with Federer’s serving is again the keys to match. The court is fast

Fed is comfortably the better player for all but the 4th set, where his first serve-in count drops to a woeful 36% (rest of the match, its 66%). Even with that low figure, there’s not only no guarantee of Cilic being able to capitilize, but odds would be against it

Sans that set, Fed wins 25/39 or 64% of his second serve points, which would be very good to be holding behind. In that set though, he’s down to 7/16 or 44%. Still not too bad a figure (Cilic wins 2/7 of his second serve points in the same set, but serves at particularly high 77%), but Cilic for only time in match fires more than misfires (trying to fire is all he does all match) and reels of 5 games in a row (2 breaks) to come back from a break down to send the match into decider

Earlier, Cilic had managed to pinch second set with a powerfully played tiebreak after struggling to reach the ‘breaker in first place. In that set, Fed served 35 points, Cilic 46 in holding 6 times to get to ‘breaker. And Fed picking up sets either side of that one with Cilic playing horrendously in the opener and having a horrendous game to get broken in the third

All that is moot going into the 5th with momentum squarely with Cilic, whose won the last 5 games hammering groundies, including returns and pounding Fed down. He carries on in same vein at start of 5th and Fed’s put through the grinder in a 12 point hold, saving 2 break points depsite healthy 8/12 first serves in. Cil misses an attempted blasted 2nd serve return on first break point - its shots like this that had got him to where he’s at, a ‘good’ miss and can’t make return against decent first serve on the other

Poor game by Cilic - 2 double faults and 3 third ball FH UEs (2 against decently deep returns) - to get broken after that, but he’s back threatening again next game. Fed’s taken to deuce, Cilic keeps firing off the ground and Fed manages to hold for 3-0

Rest of match follows match norm of easy Fed holds and he breaks a second time in another poor Cilic game to make scoreline very comfortable looking 6-1. Some pretty hairy moments for the champion to see off to get there though

Like previous match, key stats are Fed’s 47% unreturned rate (Cilic has healthy 36%) and Cilic’s huge 50 UEs (Fed has 29). Not as important but also in line with previous match, Fed with very low 16 winners (Cilic has 28)

Serve & Return
Using Wimbledon match as frame of reference, Fed’s very high unreturned rate is product of excellent serving and high risk, high reward returning strategy by Cilic (which Fed also ‘baits’)

24 aces (1 second serve) comes to 27% off first serves for Fed. And plenty of very tough, wide serves besides. Cilic is no slouch either and 18 unreturnables (1 second serve) comes to 20% off first serves

Cilic has the greater power but he has little else other than power. Fed mixes up his serves and a large lot of aces are average paced sliced serves out wide. Hits lines with good lot of them too. At times, Fed’s forceful with wide second serves too, while Cilic delivers them to BH like clockwork

Some good, defensive returning from Fed, whose able to stretch and block back some of Cilic’s bigger serves. Nothing extraordinary, but its much better than Cilic, who can rarely return Fed’s wide serves

Its not all blocking either. Some good, firm deep returns. Again, nothing to cause undue trouble for server, but Cilic tends to get into disproportionate degree of trouble coping, partially due to his shot choices. Seems to want to hammer every third ball - FH or BH and chooses some balls that are better played neutrally

Fed’s able to reach Cilic’s BH with the return against strong serves almost as often as not. According to commentary, Cilic had been hitting FHs 80% + on third ball for tournament

Finally, its not confined to ‘deep firm returns’. Fed takes second serves from inside the court usually and has 4 return winners (which is particularly remarkable considering he’s got just 12 non-returns)

In short, a good, balanced returning display by Fed against tough opposition - getting decent number of fat serves back, doing so in preferred direction and often without leaving too easy a third ball and even throwing in point finishingly precise ones. Good start to going about getting breaks. Its kind of court where one break is likely to do and what Fed does in return is good for doing that even if Cilic played well (which he doesn’t)

Cilic by contrast looks to blast returns. He succeeds only briefly when Fed’s in-count is poor, but during that phase, gets stuck into first serves too. Returning like this isn’t necessarily bad strategy on court like this. Andre Agassi used to do it and would give up substantial number of easy, quick holds but on odd game where his returns landed in, he had good chances to break

That’s what Cilic tries to do. But for just 52% return rate, he misses too often. He’s got 14 UEs on the return and some of his 27 FEs are attempts to smack winners too. Also, such strategy works best when a player is sure of holding, which Cilic isn’t

There are 4-7 games in the match where Fed holds in about a minute

Fed’s happy to let him at it and serves 50% to FH, particularly out wide in deuce court, often sliced. The riskiest of all serves. And Cilic does fire with FH return to take match to 5th set. Baiting stuff from Fed and it nearly costs him. He’s drawn 23 BH return errors to 18 FHs, despite serving 4% more to FH. Cilic tries blasting BHs too but isn’t as powerful of the side

Would be much safer for Fed to serve down ‘T’ to BH. He’s still getting errors, in fact more and potential damaging return from Cilic is lower risk. Odd choice from Fed, particularly in light of is overall strategy of leaving play on Cilic’s racquet and (correctly) counting on him to miss more often than not

 

[Waspsting]

Play - Baseline (& Net)
As at Wimby, play is on Cilic’s racquet, more or less with Fed’s consent. Cilic initates beat-down, hard hitting play as a base starting point and ups it to hitting with attacking power or width early on from there. Off both wings and on both serve and return games

Fed makes little effort to contest for control and is content to counter-punch and keep ball in play. Essentially, counting on Cilic missing by going for too much

It works

Winners - Fed 16, Cilic 28
Errors Forced - both 16
(aggressively ended points) - Fed 32, Cilic 44
UEs - Fed 29, Cilic 50

That’s a poor showing by Cilic with his UEs accounting for 61% of Fed’s points in play. The errors don’t take long in coming either. He does hit powerfully to challenge Fed’s movement and reactive rallying ability. Pretty good from Fed on that front. He doesnt’ give up errors too easily and he’s faced with exceptional hitting, but in context of far too many early misses from Cilic

Breakdown of UEs -
- Defensive - Cilic 1
- Neutral - Fed 16, Cilic 17
- Attacking - Fed 8, Cilic 14
- Winner Attempts - Fed 5, Cilic 18

Neutral errors being virtually equal is deceptive in that what passes for ‘neutral’ is Cilic hammering groundies and Fed resisting it. Cilic’s ‘neutral’ shot is skirting line of being ‘attacking’, and consequently, Fed’s neutral UEs are slanted towards being defensive shots and in that light, he hits back quite hard himself. Extreme lead-react dynamics, short of attacking-defending one, checked somewhat by Fed not going into defensive shell, but striking back reasonably hard in response to Cil’s lead. Equality on the neutral front in this light suggest Fed has handy advantage in basic consistency of normal shots. Cilic doesn’t stay in normal long enough for that to be tested

18 winner attempts UEs for 28 winners is poor for Cilic and 14 attacing errors for forcing 16 errors out of Fed is terrible - particularly since forcing an error isn’t particularly difficult on this court. Somewhat counter-balanced by Fed's UEs being relatively tough

BH UEs make up bulk for both players (Fed 16/29, Cilic27/47 groundstrokes). Its side where Cil severly overdoes attempted attack and he has just 5 winners (2 of them returns) to show for it. Like Wimby, Fed doesn’t proactively slice, though he’s forced to when pushed back. Like the serving to FH thing, no real reason to with Cil whacking balls out sooner rather than later, but errors would probably come even sooner against the low ball with less pace

On FH, Cil has match high 16 winners - as many as Fed’s total, for 21 UEs. A good showing. Its the over-done BH power hitting that fails him

Finally, plenty of scope for Cil to take net to attack, with Fed pushed back. He doesn’t. Only comes up 18 times, all from rallying and wins healthy 72% up there. Fed has less scope to. He’s perfect 7/7 serve-volleying and 1/1 return-approaching, leaving him just 5/9 approaching from rallies

Gist - Cilic hitting hard, dictating/leading and looking to attack to an impatient, harried extent. And particularly off BH, far too loose to pull it off. Fed reacting with reasonable strenght counter-hitting but not making a play for control himself. And Cilic’s missing every kind of shot there is to miss - attacking, neutral, winner attempts - at greater rate than is worth it

Match Progression
Some good returning by Federer in the first set to get Cilic’s bombs back to BH side and his movement both on the return and during rallies is slick. Still, story of opener is Cilic missing groundies - particularly third ball BHs hitting hard, or going too wide

Blink and its 4-0. 2 third ball BH misses set Cilic back in opening game and he misses a tricky OH from well behind service line that he elects to take out of the air on break point. 4 UEs get him broken the second time. Fed cruises through service games and its 1 set to love in no time

Cil brings up his first break points after holding to open second set with a stunning BH inside-out winner. Fed aces away the firt and swats away a FH inside-in winner on the second before finishing with 2 unreturned serves to hold

Up 40-15 next game, Cilic starts on another merry error bender, this time off both wings and does his best to get broken. Fails at it - saves only break point with an ace - but game goes on for 16 points before he can hold. 5 UEs in 8 points for Cilic at a stretch in the game

Good serving marks rest of set. No breaks in it, though there are 3 games with break points in them. Cilic serves his way out of trouble on his 2 (including by saving break point with a second serve ace). A pair of double faults get Fed into hole, where Cil misses a routine BH on break point before Fed holds.

Good, hard hitting ‘breaker from both players. Decisive mini comes out of a huge return by Cil, that sets him up for FH cc winner. He makes no mistake on similar OH to the one he missed in opening game on set point

Just the 1 break in the third set, a poor game by Cil where he makes 1/5 first serve. Fantastic, running, FH half-volley from the baseline by Fed that forces an error game after is one of the shots of the match

Cilic is broken again to open the 4th and again with a spate of UEs from 30-0 up. 2 double faults next service game threaten to put him 2 breaks down, but he manages to hold before Fed comfortably holds to love for 3-1

Cilic plays his best tennis to win the next 5 games and take the set. Hammered returns gets him first break to love. He struggles to consolidate but more hammering play gets him second break to move ahead. Game features rally of the match, which Cil ends up winning with a big FH cc/inside-in winner. He finishes the game with a FH inside-out winner and serves out set to love

Fed’s under the gun to start 5th set too as Cil carries on where he left off. Cil misses returns on both his break points - 1 to a 2nd serve he tried to blast, 1 to a decent first serve. Fed does hold with an exclamation point though, swishing away a BH cc winner out of the corner. Not a shot he’d looked to play all match

Cil double faults twice and falters trying to command a couple of decent, deep returns to get broken. He has Fed in trouble game after 2, where he pulls of a superb, full running FH running-down-drop-shot shot dtl pass at net. Missing an easy return to a slow serve at 30-30 sets hi back and Fed goes on to hold

No more drama for Fed on serve and Cil adds another poor game to be broken again, just before Fed serves out to love

Summing up, excellent serving from Federer (the placement and variety as much as the pace) along with some good returning (getting tough serves back, regularly to BH and often with decent depth and pace) sets solid groundwork for him to work on. Serving is good enough to hold readily (and he does) and returning is enough to eventually threaten breaking against even strong opposition

Cilic doesn't present 'strong oppostion' and spends most of the match spraying the ball out, especially off the BH looking to hit hard and/or attack while falling well short of getting fair compensation for it. He breaks himself repeatedly and allows opponent to cruise on serve

Despite all that, a combination of hanging in with the big serve just enough and a perfectly timed hot-phase from Cilic coinciding perfectly with a drop in Federer's serving ends up making match tense as late as early in the final set, before Federer first creeps ahead and then Cilic falters further behind for the finale

 

[abmk]

Play - Baseline (& Net)
As at Wimby, play is on Cilic’s racquet, more or less with Fed’s consent.

disagree with ground game+net play being on Cilic's racquet at Wim 17 final.
AO 18 final, yes, fed was more passive.

Like Wimby, Fed doesn’t proactively slice, though he’s forced to when pushed back.

actually Fed used the slice quite a bit draw errors from Cilic. So yeah, he was proactive with it.

Not a very good match but an interesting one and given the scoreline, about as tense as possible. Federer serves well, manages to get good lot of tough returns in play to Cilic’s BH - and lets Cilic make a mess of things (mis)-hammering groundstrokes from the back. Match is similar to the Wimbledon final - statisitcally and otherwise - despite a fit Cilic whose poor showing off the ground along with Federer’s serving is again the keys to match. The court is fast

Cilic played 3 good to better sets here in AO 18 final. (2-4). poor stretches of clustered UFEs from 0-0 to 0-4 in 1st set and after failing to break in the 5th set don't change it.

Fed is comfortably the better player for all but the 4th set, where his first serve-in count drops to a woeful 36% (rest of the match, its 66%). Even with that low figure, there’s not only no guarantee of Cilic being able to capitilize, but odds would be against it

Cilic had to save 3 BPs across 3 different games in set2, but fed himself had to save 3 BPs across 2 different games. Given Cilic edging out the TB with proactive, clutch play, I don't think its that accurate to say fed was comfortably better in set2.

Cilic doesn't present 'strong oppostion' and spends most of the match spraying the ball out, especially off the BH looking to hit hard and/or attack while falling well short of getting fair compensation for it. He breaks himself repeatedly and allows opponent to cruise on serve

Set1 - Cilic started off poorly from 0-0 to 0-4. Then recovered.
Set 2 - Cilic had 3 BPs across 2 different games
Set 3 - fed was serving at 81% and you hardly get chances vs fed serving like that on a court like this
Set 4 - cilic broke twice in this set with fed's serve falling
set 5 - fed had to save 2 BPs in 1st service game and 2nd service game went to deuce. only after that, fed held easily in next 2 games.

so wouldn't say Cilic was allowing opponent to cruise on serve for the match. only 0-0 to 0-4 in first set and last 2 service games of the match.