Duel Match Stats/Reports - Ljubicic vs Roddick & Roddick vs Berdych, Indian Wells & Miami finals, 2010)

[Waspsting]

Ivan Ljubicic beat Andy Roddick 7-6(3), 7-6(5) in the Indian Wells final, 2010 on hard court

It would be Ljubicic’s sole Masters title and Roddick’s sole final at this event. Roddick would go onto win Miami shortly after

Ljubicic won 84 points, Roddick 84

Serve Stats
Ljubicic...
- 1st serve percentage (54/96) 56%
- 1st serve points won (47/54) 87%
- 2nd serve points won (21/42) 50%
- Aces 20
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (41/96) 43%

Roddick...
- 1st serve percentage (52/72) 72%
- 1st serve points won (43/52) 83%
- 2nd serve points won (13/20) 65%
- Aces 12
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (28/72) 39%

Serve Pattern
Ljubicic served...
- to FH 36%
- to BH 64%

Roddick served...
- to FH 47%
- to BH 49%
- to Body 4%

Return Stats
Ljubicic made...
- 44 (18 FH, 26 BH)
- 16 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (3 FH, 6 BH), including 1 FH that was returned but incorrectly challenged
- 7 Forced (5 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (44/72) 61%

Roddick made...
- 53 (15 FH, 38 BH), including 2 runaround BHs
- 21 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (4 FH, 4 BH), including 1 runaround BH
- 13 Forced (8 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (53/94) 56%

Break Points
Ljubicic 0/3 (1 game)
Roddick 0/6 (3 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Ljubicic 17 (7 FH, 5 BH, 2 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 OH)
Roddick 14 (8 FH, 1 BH, 5 OH)

Ljubicic's FHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 2 dtl passes, 2 inside-in, 1 lob
- BHs - 3 dtl (1 at net), 1 dtl/inside-out, 1 longline pass at net

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a second volley BHV

Roddick's FHs - 4 cc (1 pass), 1 inside-out, 1 inside-in pass, 2 running-down-drop-shots at net (1 cc, 1 cc/inside-in pass)
- BH pass - 1 dtl

- 1 OH was on the bounce

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Ljubicic 40
- 27 Unforced (11 FH, 12 BH, 3 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 13 Forced (4 FH, 8 BH, 1 BHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.4

Roddick 26
- 10 Unforced (7 FH, 2 BH, 1 BHV)
- 16 Forced (8 FH, 7 BH, 1 BHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Ljubicic was...
- 20/30 (67%) at net, including...
- 2/2 serve-volleying, both 2nd serves
---
- 0/1 forced back

Roddick was...
- 15/24 (63%) at net, including...
- 0/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve

Match Report
Server dominated match, Roddick is better player overall, but Ljubicic wins in two tiebreaks. Ljubicic returns better in making difficult returns, with the quality of this skill quite low from both players, especially Roddick, who seems to miss every not-easy return. But Roddick is better at most other things, particularly ground consistency to make up for it. Court is slow

No breaks.

Both players win 84 points. Lube serves 57% of them
Sans tiebreaks, Rod wins 52.1% of points, serving 41.8% of them
Break points - Lube 0/3 (1 game), Rod 0/6 (3 games)

The timing of those break point games adds weight to Rod being closer to breaking to win
- Lube’s sole game is first of the match. So he’s thoroughly shut out after it
- Rod answers Lube’s 0-40 chance at start of the match with one of his own shortly after
- Rod has break/set point at end of first set
- Rod has break points at 4-4 in the second, which in context of how he’s rolling on serve, seem like virtual set points

2 tiebreaks, no breaks in match between these two players. Would probably think full on serve-botting, but no. Lots of rallying going, plenty of long ones. Server-dominated yes, serve-botting (returner completely helpless against serve shot), no

Action is pretty dull. Mundane exchange of groundies. Rod is a lot more consistent from the back, Lube is wise to measuredly use net to not get throttled more than he is, despite not being great on the volley

Stats of particular interest -

Unreturend serves - Lube 43%, Rod 39%
Lube leading freebies and he also out-aces Rod 20-12, despite Rod leading in-count 72% to 56%
Put it down to Rod being worse at returning good serves. Lube’s not good at it either

UEs - Lube 27, Rod 10 (just off the ground, its Lube 23, Rod 9)
Take at face value. 9-23 ground UE advantage for Rod. Action being ‘pretty dull’ is another way of saying UE counts are important and that’s a big lead there for Rod. He’s particularly secure, especially on the BH that has just 2 UEs. Good to override small amount he trails in freebies

Net points - Lube 30, Rod 24 (Lube wins 67% up there, Rod 63%)
And Lube rallying forward often to escape that consistency gap and doing well enough, despite not great volleying

2nd serve points won - Lube 50%, Rod 65% get to Rod being better court player
1st serve points won - Lube 87%, Rod 83% get to Lube’s big serve hurting Rod more than other way around

Small few points determine result. Report is best viewed as outlying the differences in the way two players play and how good they are at it (as opposed to why the result is what it is). Rod’s returning troubles have hand in losing first ‘breaker and his choice aggression doesn’t pay in the second

Serve & Return
The serving is good.
The returning is worse than the serving is good
For both players

Serve being good, for servers of this calibre puts ability to handle tough ones on front-line of returning. Rod is particularly not good here and seems to miss every not-easy return. In a match where there aren’t many not-easy returns

In count - Lube 56%, Rod 72%
Not bad from Lube, excellent from Rod. In counts are in line with how big the two go with the serve - Rod checked and contained, Lube freer though not wild. Both still remaining damaging with the first serve. Good job by both

First serve ace rate - Lube 37%, Rod 23%
Exaggerated indicator of quality of serve for Lube. Slow reactions are part of Rod’s problems on return, including not having time to respond to wider stuff. He’s as stone as most of those aces go by. Good serves, but not that good
In general, Rod is one of the easiest to ace guys around
To be clear, Lube does serve stronger, but probably not by the amount suggested by ace rate

Unreturned serves - Lube 43%, Rod 39%
Not much in it. Its slow enough court that even with these servers, such high figures aren’t a given. Wouldn’t be surprising to see them at 25%-30% against the best returners
Lube also double faults twice to Rod’s 0. If you add 2 points to Rod’s freebies (that is, points he wins his serve or his opponents - so staying on theme of serve-return contest), Rod’s ‘unreturneds’ would be 42%
Point is, freebies and handovers come to virtually same rate
That’s a relative win for Lube, given the in-counts

Sans aces, Lube faces 60 serves, Rod 74 and…
Return UEs - Lube 9, Rod 8
Return FEs - Lube 7, Rod 13

Lube’s return errors breakdown is indicator of relatively checked serving by Rod. Worth it to keep 72% first serves in and still have healthy ace rate. He’s balanced quality of serve with percentage superbly
For that matter, Rod’s error breakdown is also indicator of how big Lube serves. Its not clearly worse than Rod’s, so is at least, very good

Lube returns from normal position. Rod’s on the baseline for first and falls 3-4 paces back for most of second
Lube looks fairly comfy returning, Rod anything but. On baseline, first serves fly through for aces not far from him before he can react. He can’t return with any authority from there when he makes the return, so why not step back? It’s a good move, but than he can’t make lunging returns

Lube returning better in sense that he makes some tough returns. Rod seems to miss every not-easy, let alone tough one

 

[Waspsting]

Rod with 2 runaround BH returns and he also has an error on the shot (it comes in the first tiebreak). He knows what he’s doing. He’s got 12 FH return errors to 8 BHs (excluding the runaround), despite Lube serving 36% to FH, 64% to BH. Just UEs, its 4 FH, 3 BH (still excluding the runaround)

Normal quality returns from both players. First serves drawing soft returns, second returns almost never putting server on back foot

Gist - Lube serving bigger, Rod getting more first serves in
Slow enough court where even these big servers can’t count on high freebies. But slow, inconsistent enough returners both of them that they do
Good serving all around, not good returning (especially from Rod)

Play - Baseline (& Net)
Second serve points won - Lube 50%, Rod 65%
With first serve points being more about the serve and return shots, second serve numbers pretty accurate indicator of how the two stack up in court action

Pretty dull, baseline action. Trading neutral groudies, middling depth and power. Not much wide attacking play. Few neutral line change-ups. Rod occasionally moving over to play FHs. His is a top-spinny one

In baseline rallies -
Winners - Lube 6 (3 each wing), Rod 4 (all FHs)
Errors forced - Lube 2, Rod 4 (1s a bad call that should be a winner for Rod)
UEs - Lube 23, Rod 9

Small aggressively ended points and about half of them set up by strong serve (most of them, easy shot choices). Lube taking on a few BH dtl winners is most aggressive shot-choices. He’s got a couple winners with it
Little attempt to outmanuver or overpower by either. Rod seems to be capable on rare occasion he goes for combo’s of FH inside-outs and inside-ins, especially with inside-in. Both players forego clear openings to attack too (Rod more)
So essentially, tepid action with UEs at forefront. Those UEs speak themselves

UEs by shot -
- Rod BH 2
- Rod FH 7
- Lube FH 11
- Lube BH 12

... and neutral UEs - Lube 13, Rod 6

Super secure BH by Rod. It is harmless though and fails on the pass. For baseline rallying though, that’s top class. He starts match with UE, so has just 1 more in remaining 167 points
FHs also secure and on rare occasion, able to use it to direct action as mentioned earlier
Lube with average, nondescript groundies

Rallying to net - Lube 18/28, Rod 15/23
Baseline action going the way it does, its good for Lube to come in some. He strikes just about perfect frequency of so doing to off-set his handicap. Not difficult to find an approach for someone looking for them and Rod’s BH doesn’t promise good passing

On the volley, Lube with 5 winners, 4 UEs, 1 UE
Rod on the pass has 4 winners (3 FH, 1 BH), 13 FEs (6 FH, 7 BH)

Not very good volleying, not very good passing
That’s high lot of UEs for Lube and they’re very simple shots. Rod with less than good looks, but just as proportion, not-good yield. Especially since it doesn’t seem to take super good pass to win point

All 5 of Rod’s ‘volley’ winners are smashes (he has couple running-down-drop-shot ones too), an FE and UE apiece
Lube has 5 passing winners, 8 FEs
Simple volleys for Rod. Doesn’t plonk them but doesn’t punch or place them great either. Lube actually does pass pretty well. FH has 4 winners, 2 FEs

Serve-volleying is Lube 2/2 (both second serves), Rod 0/1 (crucial point to start first tiebreak)

Gist - pretty dry stuff. Rod’s BH in particular is commendably secure, he rarely looks to direct (let alone attack) with FH, though isn’t bad when he does. Lube taking net to just enough to make up the slack enough to keep holding. Both his volleying and Rod’s passing is ordinary

Lube does have some damaging ability with BH, but its also loose, especially next to Rod’s very consistent shot

Match Progression
Rod’s down 0-40 to start the match - BH UE, FH inside-in winner and a passing error. Rest of match, Rod has 1 more BH UE and Lube 2 more FH winners in baseline rally
Lube misses routine first return marked UE on first break point and strong serves see Rod home

Lube’s down 0-40 in game 4, missing aggressive plays. Rod mishits a FH, misses routine first return and Lube nails 2 aces to get to A-40. Nice BH dtl winner from a rally to end the game

No more breaks but games are not one-sided and there are lot of rallies. Average movement, largely who-blinks-first action from baseline. Both players approach net occasionally

Brilliant BH dtl/inside-out winner by Lube and a better, full running FH dtl pass one are highlights as things stay on serve

Serving at 4-5, baseline blinks from Lube along with unreturned serves see the game to 40-30. He misses an easy third ball attacking FH inside-out to take things to deuce

Commanding point by Roddick, who moves Lube about with FHs before coming in to dispatch a smash and he’s got break/set point. Gets the most comfy FH return he can ask for against a first serve but can’t block it into play. Couple of aces and a net point for Lube to hold from there

Tiebreak short while later and Rod serve-volleys for first and only time in the match on first point, only to miss a routine, under-net volley. He had looked to serve-volley a couple of times earlier but missed the serve. Kind of move that’d be called brilliant if it came off and dumb if it doesn’t; there’s nothing wrong with the play, just misses the volley

Bigger sin is missing 2 easy second returns in a row to stay behind 1 mini break and 2-5. The second of them is a runaround BH return
Rod’s got Lube on the move couple points later, but eases up and lets Lube recover. Lube seizes the point and takes net to move to 6-3
Nice finish by Lube, drop-shotting Rod in and passing him FH cc. He’d doen the same thing earlier in the match, finishing with a lob that time

Rod drops back 3-4 paces from baseline to return for much of second set. He’d only won 4/27 first return points so change is a good idea. Doesn’t work - he only wins 3/27 in this set - but still

Action is similar to earlier. Only tough game comes late in the set. Lube needs 16 points and has to save 2 break points to hold for 5-4

Misses an easy FHV and double faults to fall behind 0-30. Rod generously misses 2 routine first returns against safe first serves, after a bold third ball BH dtl winner to get to 40-30
The 2 break points though are dealt with by strong, winning first serves. They’re powerful, thoughnot too wide to FH down the T. Lube goes on to hold with 2 more unreturned serves, including an ace

Tiebreak soon after. Lube serves his best, bar a nervy double fault on is first match point at 6-2, but he can afford it at that point

Rod again looks for against trend aggression and again, falters. He manufactures an approach with a BH slice and ends up getting passed to fall behind 1-2. And awhile later, goes for FH inside-out winner after working Lube over with FH inside-in - and misses again; his only winner attempt UE of the match

That makes score 5-1 and Lube gets nervy at finish line. Almost throwaway bad drop shot UE before he moves to 6-2 with a net point

Double fault. Just second of the match. 6-3
Lube incorrectly challenges Rod’s second serve after making he return. 6-4
He finally converts his 4th match point with a strong serve that doesn’t come back

Summing up, pretty dull match, though competitive
Strong serving from both players - Ljubicic stronger, but Roddick well balanced
Not good returning from either - consistency and movement aren’t good, quality of returns made are ordinary. Roddick is poor in missing almost every challenging return
Mundane, who-blinks-first rallies from the back. Roddick is commendably secure, especially off the BH. Ljubicic comes to net just enough to offset how baseline rallies go

Roddick slightly better overall (but not enough to break), Ljubicic taking the tiebreaks to gain the win. In those ‘breakers, Roddick faltering some on the return and failing when trying to be more aggressive than how he’d otherwise been playing

 

[objection_]

Funny how Roddick was essentially 3 points from winning the sunshine double.
Would this make him the only player to win both the sunshine double and canada-cincy-USO triple?

 

[Galvermegs]

Funny how Roddick was essentially 3 points from winning the sunshine double.
Would this make him the only player to win both the sunshine double and canada-cincy-USO triple?

I would think so but havent researched it. But roddicks luck at cincy 03 and uso 03 was such that i dont think this missed chance is worth losing sleep over..
A well deserved consolation trophy for the laconic ljubi

 

[mike danny]

I would think so but havent researched it. But roddicks luck at cincy 03 and uso 03 was such that i dont think this missed chance is worth losing sleep over..
A well deserved consolation trophy for the laconic ljubi

Yep, especially after the heartbreaks that were Madrid and Paris 2005.

 

[Waspsting]

Funny how Roddick was essentially 3 points from winning the sunshine double.
Would this make him the only player to win both the sunshine double and canada-cincy-USO triple?

it would have
Only others to complete Canada-Cincy-USO triple are Rafter in '98 and Nadal in '13
Only other to complete Canda-Cincy double beyond that was Agassi in '95, and he fell 1 short of the triple at the US Open. Unlike Rafter and Nadal (and Roddick), he did win the Sunshine double

 

[objection_]

Thanks PETE

 

[7thKingSlam]

I would think so but havent researched it. But roddicks luck at cincy 03 and uso 03 was such that i dont think this missed chance is worth losing sleep over..
A well deserved consolation trophy for the laconic ljubi

More a blown opportunity for Nadal here. In great form, healthy, Federer/Djokovic/Murray out of form, but he bottles one set leads vs Ljubicic and Roddick. Even thrashed Tsonga in Miami right before the Roddick loss.

Also completely forgot Berdych made the Miami final that year

 

[Galvermegs]

More a blown opportunity for Nadal here. In great form, healthy, Federer/Djokovic/Murray out of form, but he bottles one set leads vs Ljubicic and Roddick. Even thrashed Tsonga in Miami right before the Roddick loss.

Also completely forgot Berdych made the Miami final that year

Yes i would agree. But rafas total of 6 hardcourt majors is still more than enough to make things like this trivial. Many would have bet against him having 2 or 3 non clay majors when he was still very young.

 

[7thKingSlam]

Yes i would agree. But rafas total of 6 hardcourt majors is still more than enough to make things like this trivial. Many would have bet against him having 2 or 3 non clay majors when he was still very young.

Yeah of course, definitely trivial compared to Roddick or Ljubicic’s careers. He never did manage to win Miami though so this was another blown opportunity there too.

 

[Galvermegs]

Yeah of course, definitely trivial compared to Roddick or Ljubicic’s careers. He never did manage to win Miami though so this was another blown opportunity there too.

Djokovic did so well to tick off all the boxes on the tour. But he did struggle with the smaller grass events and wasnt great at dubai or cincy. No one player is imperious on every turf.
Rafa was unlucky not to draw some relatively weak finalist in miami, although i suppose davydenko was a half chance at least

 

[7thKingSlam]

Djokovic did so well to tick off all the boxes on the tour. But he did struggle with the smaller grass events and wasnt great at dubai or cincy. No one player is imperious on every turf.
Rafa was unlucky not to draw some relatively weak finalist in miami, although i suppose davydenko was a half chance at least

2010 was arguably Rafa's best shot draw-wise to win Miami; lost in a 3rd set TB to Ljubicic but had he won that, Berdych in the final who Nadal finished his career 20-4 against. But also Miami 2005 was a straight out robbery; Nadal 80% wins that match if not for that horrible call. Granted, he likely should've closed it anyways. ATP Finals 2020 was also arguably Nadal's biggest choke to not win that semifinal, even though the final would've been tough regardless. In 2010/2013 he made the finals but Federer/Djokovic both played near flawless.

Djokovic was quite weak at Cincy; his 3 titles there don't really reflect his skill there in my opinion. 2018 Fed turned in a horrendous performance, in 2020 Djokovic barely scraped out multiple wins while playing nowhere near his best and Raonic kinda choked the final. 2023 was his most impressive run, but even then Alcaraz absolutely gave that final away as Djokovic was awful in those first 2 sets. And in all of Djokovic's other finals he was blown off the court by Fed besides the 2008 loss to Murray.
He does deserve credit for making that many finals though, thinking back.

 

[Galvermegs]

Yes i would go with that. Rafa had some bad luck. By being so inexperienced he had limited coping ability for umpire decisions in a big match. The majority of his draws just werent easy. 2010 was roddicks last hurrah but he wasnt a factor for long after that miami win.

On another note berdych had some bad luck with draws but i really would call him an underachiever and choker overall. Maybe my standards are high but i feel he had enough game to win more, whereas tsonga had some definite weaknesses, and indeed the same for soderling even with illness taken out and his career extended.

 

[7thKingSlam]

Yes i would go with that. Rafa had some bad luck. By being so inexperienced he had limited coping ability for umpire decisions in a big match. The majority of his draws just werent easy. 2010 was roddicks last hurrah but he wasnt a factor for long after that miami win.

On another note berdych had some bad luck with draws but i really would call him an underachiever and choker overall. Maybe my standards are high but i feel he had enough game to win more, whereas tsonga had some definite weaknesses, and indeed the same for soderling even with illness taken out and his career extended.

Maybe, I do feel Berdych's game on paper should've probably bothered Rafa more. At the same time, his slam results were quite good; Wimbledon final, lots of semis and QFs. I'd say it was a bit of an underachievement to only win 13 titles total and just 1 Masters1000 in 2005. He was consistently healthy unlike Soderling and Tsonga, and his prime lasted almost a full decade. His top-end level was high. He should've probably scraped out more big titles.

 

[Waspsting]

Roddick beat Tomas Berdych 7-5, 6-4 in the Miami final, 2010 on hard court

This was Roddick’s second title at the event and would turn out to be his last Masters title. This would be Berdych’s only hard court Masters final

Roddick won 69 points, Berdych 60

Serve Stats
Roddick...
- 1st serve percentage (37/60) 62%
- 1st serve points won (29/37) 78%
- 2nd serve points won (16/23) 70%
- Aces 13
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (24/60) 40%

Berdych...
- 1st serve percentage (33/69) 48%
- 1st serve points won (24/33) 73%
- 2nd serve points won (21/36) 58%
- Aces 7
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (16/69) 23%

Serve Pattern
Roddick served...
- to FH 40%
- to BH 57%
- to Body 3%

Berdych served...
- to FH 44%
- to BH 45%
- to Body 11%

Return Stats
Roddick made...
- 50 (22 FH, 28 BH), including 2 runaround FHs & 3 runaround BHs
- 9 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (2 FH, 3 BH)
- 4 Forced (2 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (50/66) 76%

Berdych made...
- 34 (12 FH, 22 BH)
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (2 FH, 6 BH)
- 3 Forced (1 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (34/58) 59%

Break Points
Roddick 2/5 (3 games)
Berdych 0

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Roddick 9 (4 FH, 2 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Berdych 19 (8 FH, 6 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BH1/2V, 3 OH)

Roddick's FHs - 1 cc pass, 3 inside-out
- BH passes - 1 cc, 1 dtl

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a first volley BHV

Berdych's FHs - 3 cc (1 at net), 4 inside-out (1 at net), 1 inside-in
- BHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 1 dtl pass, 3 lobs

- 2 OHs were on the bounce (1 from baseline, 1 from no-man's land)

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Roddick 23
- 17 Unforced (14 FH, 1 BH, 2 BHV)
- 6 Forced (3 FH, 3 BH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.7

Berdych 33
- 27 Unforced (17 FH, 9 BH, 1 FHV)
- 6 Forced (5 BH, 1 BHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.1

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Roddick was...
- 6/13 (46%) at net, including...
- 1/2 serve-volleying, both 1st serves

Berdych was 8/14 (57%) at net, with...
- 1/1 forced back

Match Report
Similar match to Indian Wells, this time with Roddick with more better of things and more importantly, winning. Berdych returns pretty badly and is more actively the ‘aggressor’ in baseline rallies. Roddick remains the more consistent. Court is even slower than other match, but slices stay low

Unreturned serves - Rod 40%, Berd 23% is key to result. Rod leads freebies by 8 and points won by 9
Here, he has bigger serve, though Berd’s is hefty. Not Ivan Ljubicic big, but not an easy serve to return.

2 reasons for the gap in freebies -
- first serve in - Rod 62%, Berd 48%
- Berd returning badly

He misses 6 second returns, so Rod’s second serve unreturned rate is 26% - higher than Berd’s rate from all serves. Sans couple doubles, that rises to 29%

At best, can say Rod’s second serve is good in that it wouldn’t be easy to attack, but that’s probably straining. Pretty much a standard second serve. Not a single one qualify as forceful (as in, if it drew error, it’d be marked an FE), nothing close to an ace. Berd not trying to attack it. Just a lot of missing routine returns, amidst routine returning that leaves server in charge of third ball. And the court is slow

Rod winning 70% second serve points (76% sans small 2 double faults) is criminal from Berd’s point of view
By contrast, Rod returning surely. Like other match, he occasionally runsaround to hit BH return in ad court to get into position for upcoming rally

Berd wins healthy 58% second serve points too. Its a strange pair of matches, especially this one. Slow courts, with fast court figures and server domination. More understandable in Indian Wells, where the serving is better. This Miami court looks like one where good returners might break normal servers as often as not

Rod, and even Berd are better than ‘normal servers’, especially Rod
Rod and Berd also aren’t good returners. Specifically in this match, Berd returns pointedly badly with all the missed second returns. Rod returns consistently but without heat. Quality of returns from both leave server in charge of upcoming rally - first and second serves. And the second serves are normal quality. Discredit to both returners, not credit to the servers

Aces - Rod 13, Berd 7
First serve ace rate - Rod 35%, Berd 21%
Unreturned rate - Rod 40%, Berd 23%
First serve in - Rod 62%, Berd 48%

Those are high ace rates. Put it down to the serving being better than returning and handling tough serves not being either players returning forte. Berd’s low in count isn’t product of going for too much with first serve. Just a bad in count. Which he can almost afford, with 58% second serve points won

Return UEs - Rod 5, Berd 8
Return FEs - Rod 4, Berd 3

Odd for Rod to draw so few FEs when has so many aces. Quality of his serve is a mix. Much of what aren’t aces are regulation, coverable-by- a-step or in swing zone stuff. And he only occasionally goes full pace with serves (including with the aces)

Gist - Roddick with 40% to 23% freebie advantage (double faults are virtually same), with the returns of both players leaving server in control of third ball for upcoming rally

 

[Waspsting]

Court action is baseline stuff. Rod playing a FH biased, stay steady game of putting one more ball in play than opponent, Berdych looking to overpower and dominate. Not just of the FH, though that’s the side he turns. On the BH, Roddick slices quite a lot. They’re good ones, stay low and curb any powering ambitions Berd might have

Its not an overly FH seeking game from Rod. He does back away when its not too troublesome to do so to hit spinny FHs. Call it ‘FH preferring when he has the choice’. He is passive. With kinds of returns he draws, a flame grilling, third ball FH shot-making showing is possibility. He’s got 9 winners and just 3 in baseline rallies and his showing is as far from that as imaginable. Even short, weakish returns just get top spun back a little wide. Happy to fall behind baseline in neutral rallies

In baseline rallies -
Winners - Rod 3, Berd 8 (all but 3 of Berd’s are FHs)
Errors forced - Rod 1, Berd 4
UEs - Rod 15, Berd 26

If staying consistent is Rod’s game, his BH is the super-star and has 1 lousy UE (Berd’s has 9, the FHs have 14 and 17 respectively)
So that’s 3 UEs across 4 long sets of tennis across these 2 finals (and 1 of them is the first point of first final, so 2 UEs over 296 points after that)
The so-called, weak, non-existent Roddick BH
These matches aren’t anomalies. He has similar low figures in other big matches - the finals of Canada and US Open ‘03, Houston final ‘02 on clay, all 5 matches with Federer ‘03-’05 in Canada and Wimby

Here, he’s pointedly slicing most of the time. If that hints at it being safe to approach to, it’s a false hint. On the pass, BH has 2 winners, 2 FEs

Virtually perfect consistency and biting enough to keep Berd from attacking. If anything, Rod’s been foolish to not look to play more BHs. Doesn’t have a lot of variety in directions with it the way he does with FH, but with 1 UE and snakey slices that keep Berd honest, doesn’t really need it

In baseline rallies -
Neutral UEs - Rod 10, Berd 18

Attacking UEs - Rod 4, Berd 7
Error forced - Rod 1, Berd 4

Winner attempt UEs - both 1
Winners - Rod 3, Berd 8

… UEs by shot -
- BHs - Rod 1, Berd 9
- FHs - Rod 14, Berd 17

Rod more consistent just trading groundies
Rod’s very low attacking numbers (success’ and misses) getting to how passive he his
Berd’s middle attacking minus is deceptive in that successful ploys lead to his near perfect deciding aggressive plus

Berd doesn’t use net much. Neither does Rod for that matter
Rallying to net - Rod 5/11, Berd 8/14
Rod’s also 1/2 serve-volleying

Very good passing from both, especially Berd
Rod has 3 passing winners, 4 FEs
Berd has 5 winners, 4 FEs (all shots BHs - including 3 wonderful lobs)

Rod occasionally manufacturing an approach or coming in after outmanuvering Berd with varied FHs. Outsteadying in general + choice coming in sounds a good game, and he manages to find BH everytime he does. Those aren’t lined up passes for Berd, but difficult ones, especially the lobs. Effectively turning Rod into pure outsteadying game, with next to no offence

Berdy simply with not much interest in getting forward. He’s harder hitter, he’s playing from baseline with Rod happy to fall behind it. With inclination, he could readily come in more, the way Lube did, but prefers power hitting from back

He’s got 2 groundstoke winners at net (in other words, extreme baseline overpowering rather than classic, looking for volley net points), but does have a delightful, touch BH1/2V winner

In all, Berd with 10 more winners and 10 more UEs, with FEs dead equal to leave points exactly 42-42
With most of those points on Berd’s serve and Rod having 17% freebie advantage, pretty clear who’s getting better of things. Rod faces no break points, breaks once a set and Berd survives a hairy hold besides

Match Progression
Comfy holds for both players in first set. Berd’s quite aggressive, with powering play of the FH in particular, though he’s not tame off the BH either. Rod slightly moves Berd around by varying FH directions and looks to play FHs when he can. Slices most BHs. Berd does not return well and misses good lot of regulation ones

Berd biffing couple of FH cc winners to end first game and getting to 0-30 right after that, with delightful BH1/2V drop winner. Unreturned serves see Rod to hold
Berd’s got 0-30 in game 6 too, on back of consecutive BH pass winners (lob and cc); He’s struck a similar, excellent lob winner last go around also. Again, unreturend serves get Rod home. Ones an ace, 2 are routine second serves

Rod makes headway for first time and has 0-30 at 4-4 and couple of first serve freebies help Berd hold (1 marked a UE)

Rod breaks for 6-5 in a game of poor third ball FH UEs. Same ordinary returns as rest of time by Rod, but Berd misses 3 third ball groundies. Saves break point to reach deuce with a winning third ball FH inside-out, but double faults faults and gives up another FH UE to lose the game

Rod serves out to love, with a couple of aces and a rare FH inside-out winner

Rod breaks to start the second. He’s got a couple of cc passing winners (1 of each wing) and converts break point by throwing out a bunch of extra loopily spun FHs, to eventually draw FH UE
He’s taken to deuce for only time in match to consolidate, without being in much trouble. He’s up 40-15 in the game, and slams down 2 aces from deuce

Action changes slightly in this set. Berd tones back looking to step in dictate a little and Rod is more willing to play BHs, if anything slicing a higher lot of them

Early break + no trouble holding (Berd continues to have trouble returing, but Rod fires down more aces too) = Rod cruising to win

Berd goes through the hoop one more time serving to stay in match at 3-5. Has to save 2 break points in a 14 point game (which he does with authority) to force Rod to serve it out
Which Rod does to 15. Berd’s aggressive in the game but misses attacking FH, his drop shot results in Rod coming away with net-to-net OH winner and Rod takes net to finish up

Summing up, big serve-return complex advantage for Roddick is at heart of result. Good, contained serving from him and steady returning. Berdych dishes out low in count and is poor in missing substantial number of routine returns

In court action, Roddick plays a passive, but solid game Spinny FHs rarely go beyond moving opponent around slightly and mostly slicing BHs, keeping them low and seemingly incapable of missing on that side. Happy to fall behind baseline to rally and counter-punch and he’s more secure than opponent doing it

Berdych is more aggressive, looks to overpower and and step in, especially with the FH. He’s the one hitting winners, he’s the one missing trying to force the pace and he wins his half of rallies
He’d need to win a lot more than half of them to compensate for 17% handicap in unreturned serves