Duel Match Stats/Reports - Nadal vs Djokovic & Federer vs Murray, Year End Championship round robins, 2010

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Rafael Nadal beat Novak Djokovic 7-5, 6-2 in the Year End Championship (World Tour Finals) round robin, 2010 on indoor hard court in London England

Both would go onto qualify for the next stage - Nadal finishing first in the group unbeaten, Djokovic with a 2-1 record. Both would go onto lose to Roger Federer - Nadal in the finals, Djokovic in the semis. Nadal had recently bested Djokovic to claim his first US Open title

Nadal won 68 points, Djokovic 55

Serve Stats
Nadal...
- 1st serve percentage (33/62) 53%
- 1st serve points won (24/33) 73%
- 2nd serve points won (18/29) 62%
- Aces 5, Service Winners 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (20/62) 32%

Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (39/61) 64%
- 1st serve points won (25/39) 64%
- 2nd serve points won (10/22) 45%
- Aces 7 (1 second serve), Service Winners 3
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (20/61) 33%

Serve Pattern
Nadal served...
- to FH 39%
- to BH 58%
- to Body 3%

Djokovic served...
- to FH 50%
- to BH 48%
- to Body 2%

Return Stats
Nadal made...
- 40 (17 FH, 23 BH)
- 10 Errors, comprising...
- 3 Unforced (3 FH), including 1 runaround FH
- 7 Forced (5 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (40/60) 67%

Djokovic made...
- 42 (20 FH, 22 BH), including 4 runaround FHs
- 2 Winners (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 14 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (2 FH, 3 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 9 Forced (5 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (42/62) 68%

Break Points
Nadal 4/8 (5 games)
Djokovic 1/5 (3 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Nadal 11 (7 FH, 2 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Djokovic 7 (3 FH, 2 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)

Nadal's FHs - 1 cc, 4 dtl passes and 2 inside-out
- BHs (both passes) - 1 cc and 1 dtl

- the OH was hit on the bounce from the baseline and was from a forced back net point for Nadal

Djokovic's FHs - 1 inside-out, 1 inside-in and 1 longline return
- BHs - 1 dtl and 1 inside-in return

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Nadal 28
- 11 Unforced (5 FH, 6 BH)
- 17 Forced (8 FH, 2 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)… the BHV was a near 'yorker' on the baseline and not a net point
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.3

Djokovic 36
- 23 Unforced (10 FH, 10 BH, 3 FHV)
- 13 Forced (7 FH, 5 BH, 1 BHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 50

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Nadal was 5/6 (83%) at net, with...
- 1/1 forced back

Djokovic was...
- 11/23 (48%) at net, including...
- 1/3 (33%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
--
- 1/1 forced back/retreated

Match Report
This was shaping up to be a real dog fight until an issue with Djokovic's eyes comes up late in the first set. Thereafter, Novak plays poorly and action is one way traffic

Djokovic comes out firing on all cylinders. After 3 games, he's yet to lose a point on serve and has 7/8 unreturned serves (including 3 aces - 1 a second serve), while having had a break point on his sole return game (he mishits a second serve return on the point)

Its Nadal who breaks first in a 12 point game full of tough rallies. Djoko breaks right back to 15. Nadal has 2 more break points next game but can't convert.

Its at the start of game 8, Nadal serving at 3-4 that the issue comes up. Djoko seems to have trouble seeing the ball and tanks the game and is given permission goes off court to change his contact lens before the next game. The quality of play instantly goes south. He holds serve first up with strong first deliveries, but is broken to 15 next chance, not showing the same fight from the baseline. He does extend Nadal to 12 points as the Spaniard serves out the set, but that's mostly low percentage, borderline wild play from him coming off and Nadal playing a bit loose

Next set is all Nadal. Djoko plays loose regulation shots, goes for attacking shots early in rallies (contrary to how he'd been playing earlier) and usually misses, comes to net quickly (and usually loses). Even his serving quality falls. Nadal easily opens up a 4-0 lead and sees it through to victory

Djoko continues rubbing his right eye after changing contacts and one can see the eye in question has reddened. Some of his shots do look as though he's having trouble seeing the ball. And he's obviously winded. Of play, he basically just gives up after first set, playing couldn't-care-less tennis. This was the second match for both players (both having won the first), so a win would almost guarantee a spot in the semis while a loss would jeopardize chances of going through. As it turned out, both players went through

Serve & Return
Exceptionally heavy serving from Djokovic in particular. Til his issue, he seems to be banging down the ball as hard as can. Second serves too. 7 aces against Nadal is no mean feat, but more than that, have a look at the 3 service winners - Nadal is just about the hardest guy to get a virtual ace out of. He either gets aced or gets a good racquet on the ball even when he can't get the ball back in play, but here, I think he was surprised by the power of Djoko's serve

Nadal also misses a few second serve returns, which is rare for him. They're coming down hard and heavy too - credit to Djoko for this. Note 0 runaround FH returns from Nadal (he misses his sole attempt). Generally, its common for him to runaround most second serve returns from Djoko, but the serve is too heavy in this match

Djoko's 64% first serves in is deceptive. He made just 22/41 @ 54% in first set, when he was playing aggressively (and won 17/22 @ 77%) - figures in line with big serving. Its second set, where he was half-tanking is what skews his numbers (first serves in 17/20 @ 85%, wining 8 @ 47%)

Nadal had served like a monster in recent US Open - a remarkable and drastic change from his norm - which didn't last long. Its already on the wane. He serves strong too, but a couple of steps down from New York

Play - Baseline
Til, Djoko's issue, the match is shaping up to be one of the pairs brutal slugfests. More brutal than the US Open match - on par with anything I've seen from them, but there's a key difference from the norm. Djoko is straining to be aggressive, not playing naturally

The sense I got was Djokovic was playing above himself - both of quality and particularly in the level of aggression he showed. In other matches between the two - particularly 2011 and onward - his natural game (which improved significantly) was a match for Nadal's

Here though, he has to play his attempted redlining best to match Rafa

Play is brutal, with tough rallies, heavy regular balls and no small amount of attacking play (and defensive gusto to cope) from both players. Djoko is more aggressive. And he leads with the BH... blasting crosscourts and using the dtl to try to finish points

First set stats are near equal -
- unforced errors - Nadal 10, Djokovic 11
- forced errors - Nadal 9, Djokovic 10
- winners - Nadal 7, Djokovic 5

Given Djoko's issues started in game 8, I think its fair to say he got the better of play upto that point (after the issues, everything shifts Nadal's way). Credit to him for that, but it was born of a sort of desperate, go-all out approach that was unlikely to be sustainable (though in best of 3, it might still have seen him home). One senses sooner or later, Nadal's greater consistency would put him over and Djoko would eventually start making more UEs being attacking than was worth it

Nadal belts the ball himself, but with his customary eye on consistency and not giving away freebies

Post issue... not worth analysing. Suffice to say Djoko plays poorly in all areas. Nadal's level probably doesn't change at all... but he wipes the floor with Djoko

Djokovic's stamina
One other point of note is Djokovic sucking wind very noticeably even before end of first set. Rallies have been draining... but there's obviously a problem here. Getting winded after one set of even tough tennis isn't good enough at the top level Djoko was aspiring to. This issue is noticeable in his other matches round this period - particularly the US Open matches with Nadal and Federer (even though he won the latter, which was the longest of the matches in question). Credit Djoko for fixing this so decisively in such a short time. A year later, he'd picked it up drastically

Summing up, looks like its going to be a hell of a heavy hitting match - and it is for most of the first set. Strong play from both in it, Djoko playing above himself to have small advantage. An eye issue for Djoko turns things completely and Nadal crushes a hapless Djoko afterwards

Stats for their US Open final - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/match-stats-report-nadal-vs-djokovic-us-open-final-2010.633553/
 

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
In the other group, Roger Federer beat Andy Murray 6-4, 6-2

Federer would go onto win his then record tying 5th title at the event, beating Nadal in the final, who would beat Murray in the semis. Murray had won the pairs two most recent meetings in straight sets (finals of Canada and Shanghai shortly before) and led the head to head 8-5 at the time of the match

Federer won 63 points, Murray 43

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (24/44) 55%
- 1st serve points won (21/24) 88%
- 2nd serve points won (15/20) 75%
- Aces 4, Service Winners 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (14/44) 32%

Murray...
- 1st serve percentage (25/62) 40%
- 1st serve points won (16/25) 64%
- 2nd serve points won (19/37) 51%
- Aces 4, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (17/62) 27%

Serve Pattern
Federer served...
- to FH 55%
- to BH 41%
- to Body 5%

Murray served...
- to FH 31%
- to BH 67%
- to Body 2%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 44 (16 FH, 28 BH), including 2 runaround FH & 3 return-approaches
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 12 Errors, comprising...
- 4 Unforced (4 BH)
- 8 Forced (4 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (44/61) 72%

Murray made...
- 30 (15 FH, 15 BH)
- 9 Errors, comprising...
- 4 Unforced (1 FH, 3 BH)
- 5 Forced (5 FH)
- Return Rate (30/44) 68%

Break Points
Federer 3/8 (5 games)
Murray 0

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Federer 14 (6 FH, 2 BH, 3 FHV, 1 BHV, 2 OH)
Murray 8 (6 FH, 1 BH, 1 BHV)

Federer's FHs - 5 inside-out (1 that skimmed the net chord) and 1 longline pass (that seemed to be aimed at Murray)
- BHs (both passes) - 1 cc and dtl slice return

- 3 FHVs were swinging shots - 2 of them have not been counted as net points (they were more akin to mid-court groundstrokes)

Murray's FHs - 3 cc (1 pass), 2 dtl and 1 inside-out
- BH - 1 dtl

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Federer 18
- 9 Unforced (4 FH, 5 BH)
- 9 Forced (2 FH, 5 BH, 1 BH1/2V, 1 BHOH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.6

Murray 34
- 20 Unforced (9 FH, 11 BH)
- 14 Forced (9 FH, 3 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHOH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.5

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was...
- 13/16 (82%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve
--
- 2/3 (67%) return-approaching

Murray was...
- 4/13 (31%) at net, including...
- 0/1 serve-volleying, a 2nd serve
--
- 0/1 forced back/retreated

Match Report
Solid from Federer and loose from Murray in play and poor on the serve

Federer cruises through service games, especially in the first set where he loses 3 points in 5 games. In the second set, its 5 points in 4 games. Murray meanwhile can barely get a first serve in play. He's 9/28 @ 32% in first set and 7/20 @ 35% in his first two games in the second set (he's broken both times). He gets a normal number in in his last 2 games to finish with a still very poor 40% in for the match

Federer starts strong and has a break point in opening game, which Murray saves with a strong first serve (1 of 2 he made in the 10 point game). Next chance, Murray's broken to love in a strong game by Fed. Murray draws Fed in with a drop shot - and soon wishes he hadn't as the point ends with Murray scampering back to the baseline while Fed puts a smash past him, then Fed mildly forces a FH error moving Murray to the side and finishes off with a thundering pass aimed at Murray, who evades the ball and makes no attempt to volley it

Both players hold easily for rest of the set. Fed eases up a bit with on return games, content with the 1 break and of course, Murray can't get a sniff on return

Some good points. On one, Murray drops shots Federer to net and then lob BHVs him from behind the service line and Fed misses a very difficult BHOH. There's a needle threading BH cc pass from Fed - the placement is perfect. Murray whacks a 100mph 3rd ball FH cc winner off a falling back, moonball return from Fed... not an easy shot to attack (it bounced about chest high and Murray was well back of the baseline), but he gets it into the corner

Fed in a spot of trouble down 0-30 serving for the set reels of 3 winners in a row - a good backpedalling OH against an excellent defensive lob, a third ball FH inside-out from out in the doubles alley and a swinging FHV

Fed races into a 4-0 lead in the second set. First game lasts 14 points and ends with a bang. Murray surprisingly takes a deep ball from Fed on the full - he swing volleys it like a groundstroke from just inside the baseline and follows up a couple shots later with a strong BH cc. It hits the net chord though and slows down. Quick as a flash, Fed runs around it and dispatches an excellent FH inside-out winner that skimmed the top of the net

After holding serve in 58 seconds, Fed breaks again. He chip-charge returns twice in a row and Murray makes passing errors. Murray does well to fend of a powerful pass but the volley he makes brings Fed to net too.. and Murray loses the net-to-net battle to go down break point. On it, he serve-volleys off a second serve only for Fed to slice the ball BH dtl for winner

Some good points in the last part of the match, both players moving the other around cleverly. These are about even and its good to see, as a contrast to all out ball bashing type play. These points are about even, but by then, the match is all but over

Serve & Return
Poor serving from Murray is the biggest factor, the previously mentioned low percentage. Mind you, his first serve is canon. Fed does well to return it when he has to. Murray's known for having a weak second serve but it looks fine to me here. Normal - not great, not horrible

Fed returns quite well, with lots of deep balls and a couple nice chip-charges. Some room for improvement statistically - 72% return rate against a guy serving at 40% isn't great - but that's just numbers. In words, he's so comfortably placed in the match (both for being completely secure in his service games and being up a break or two from early in each set), it doesn't matter and he doesn't bust a gut trying too hard on return

Fed serves about his usual. 55% first serves is a bit low but the second serves are good. He'd have been aware for the need to serve good second serves to Murray
Murray's returning though is just a bit off. He's generally one of the best returners - combining consistency with authority. The consistency is a bit off. Note the 4 UEs

Note Federer winning 75% second serve points. 0 double faults help, but that stat has more to do with play in rallies rather than the serve
 

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Play - Baseline & Net
Federer is mostly solid and Murray loose

Particularly on the BH, Murray makes all kinds of errors (Fed has 9 UEs altogether. Murray has 9 on the FH alone - and 11 on the BH). Some routine shot errors from Andy, but the bulk would be those change-up shots he likes to play with a good margin for error. Just not making them well this day

Also some timid play from Andy. When he gets a short ball, he tends to push it back, placing it away from Federer. Mildly attacking in other words and Fed's movement/defence is good enough to cope with those. When the shoe is on the other foot, Fed launches attacks against short balls - often finishing at net

Some good moving-the-other-guy-around action, especially towards the end of the match. Part of Murray's looseness is his making errors in this dynamic. Both players move well - there's a significant gap in quality of footwork, Fed's being exceptionally good. Footspeed (i.e. running around) is good from both, Murray having the edge

Murray takes to 'attacking' Fed's BH with FH inside-outs. Its among the gentlest attacks of this type I've seen... no great power or seeming forceful intent in Murray's shots. He could probably have got the same effect playing BH cc's. Still, worth a shot given Fed's BH vulnerabilities, but it holds up well. When the roles reversed, there's no attack... just 1 shot to end the point. Strong FH inside-out day for Fed. 5/6 of his FH winners are inside-outs

Note Murray with the same number of FH winners as Fed. His is a curious style... he can launch into a FH one point and next point of a similar ball, push it. One of the things that makes him such a disarming (and successful) player, but more launching and using the well placed push as a change up might have served him better (in general more than this match)

A note on the breakdown of UEs and FEs. There's a lot of running around, but not corner to corner stuff. A decent chunk of what I've marked forced errors are relatively mild and the unforced errors relatively tough... these are mostly moved or moving to the ball but more or less comfortably placed to hit a shot type situations

Federer excellent at net, using it as a way to finish points and relying less heavily than he often does on the FH. Also on the pass... he has a field day with Murray at net (Andy wins just 31% in forecourt)

With Federer coasting on serve... impression is one of fluent dismantling, but that isn't really the case. In play, its primarily solid from Federer (as opposed to scintillating or impressively attacking) with good movement and loose from Murray. Well as Fed plays, I would discredit Murray's showing more than credit Fed

Summing up, good serving, strong returning and solid play from Fed, with the odd bit of brilliance thrown in. Poor serving from Murray and below par off the ground

Stats for their Australian Open final earlier in the year - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/match-stats-report-federer-vs-murray-australian-open-final-2010.634005/
 

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Bionic Poster
I seem to recall Federer expressing his surprise at how badly Murray performed against him given their recent record in Bo3 matches (Murray had bested Federer in straight sets in the finals of both Toronto and Shanghai earlier that year).
 
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