Duel Match Stats/Reports - Zverev vs Djokovic & Zverev vs Jarry, Rome finals, 2017 & 2024

[Waspsting]

Alexander Zverev beat Novak Djokovic 6-4, 6-3 in the Rome final, 2017 on clay

It was Zverev's first Masters title and he would go onto win the next one at the Canadian Open. He had just turned 20 years old. Djokovic was playing his 8th final at the event and had been runner-up the previous year also. He would cut his season short after Wimbledon. Djokovic was ranked 2, Zverev 17. At end of the year, Djokovic was ranked 12, Zverev 3

Zverev won 64 points, Djokovic 48

Serve Stats
Zverev...
- 1st serve percentage (32/45) 71%
- 1st serve points won (27/32) 84%
- 2nd serve points won (9/13) 69%
- Aces 7
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (19/45) 42%

Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (43/67) 64%
- 1st serve points won (30/43) 70%
- 2nd serve points won (9/24) 38%
- Aces 1
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (15/67) 22%

Serve Patterns
Zverev served...
- to FH 53%
- to BH 40%
- to Body 7%

Djokovic served...
- to FH 39%
- to BH 55%
- to Body 6%

Return Stats
Zverev made...
- 49 (18 FH, 31 BH)
- 14 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (5 FH, 1 BH)
- 8 Forced (3 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (49/64) 77%

Djokovic made...
- 24 (12 FH, 12 BH)
- 12 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (2 FH, 3 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 7 Forced (6 FH, 1 BH)
- Return Rate (24/43) 56%

Break Points
Zverev 3/5 (4 games)
Djokovic 0

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Zverev 9 (5 FH, 3 BH, 1 FHV)
Djokovic 10 (8 FH, 1 BH, 1 BHV)

Zverev's FHs - 1 cc, 3 inside-out and 1 inside-in
- BHs - 2 dtl and 1 drop shot

Djokovic's FHs - 3 cc (2 passes - 1 at net), 1 cc/inside-in, 1 dtl at net, 2 inside-out (1 at net) and 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl at net
- BH - 1 dtl

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Zverev 21
- 16 Unforced (11 FH, 5 BH)... with 1 BH at net
- 5 Forced (3 FH, 2 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.4

Djokovic 33
- 26 Unforced (9 FH, 17 BH)
- 7 Forced (3 FH, 4 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 42.3

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Zverev was...
- 2/7 (29%) at net, with...
- 0/1 forced back

Djokovic was 6/6 (100%) at net

Match Report
Very impressive from Zverev as he outplays a decent Djokovic in all areas in a firm/hard hitting baseline match

Stand out stats are Zverev's 42% unreturned rate and the BH UE counts of Zverev 5, Djoko 17. These are the majoring determinants of both sets. 1st set, Djoko is solidly good but Zverev is better. 2nd set, Zverev retains his high standard, but Djoko's drops to a bit sloppy on both the the return and off the ground

no break points for Djokovic in the match. How often does that happen?

Action is simple. Serve, return and baseline rallies. Negligible net play and results of what little there is diametrically opposed to how match goes. Zverev is 2/7 at net, Djoko 6/6. Good lot of it is drop shot related, particularly Djokovic using the shot

Zverev serves superbly, with huge first serves and hefty seconds. 7 aces from just 32 1st serves is high rate of sending down the untouched and there's a good lot more that's near enough that strong. Not too much Djoko can do against it, and with Zver serving at 71%, he's in good step on his serving game. Wins 84% first serve points, which would be high for any surface

Its the 69% second serve points won - just 1% shy of Djoko's 1st serve points won - that puts him well over on service games. Contrary to problems he's come to have with weak 2nd serving, very good, hefty second serving from Zver. Djoko's also a bit off on the return and 5/12 of his errors have been marked UEs. He doesn't have much read on the serve, and is also a bit slow to react to them

Nothing majorly wrong with Djoko's returning and excellent serving from Zver. Dynamic is very similar to Djoko's '11 French Open semi loss... he's a bit off, his opponent has tip top showing. Put the 2 together, and you get an almost unassailable 42% unreturned rate

Djoko's return rate is 22%, which isn't a threat to 'assail' it. Just normal serving from him and Zver returns firmly from well-back position, well enough to neutralize. Standard stuff

And then they rally. Points ended forcefully are about a wash -

Winners - Zver 9, Djoko 10
FEs - Zver 5, Djoko 7

Zver's FEs are mostly passing shot attempts, but he's able to force errors out of Djoko from the back

UEs read

- Zver 16, Djoko 26... all of them groundstrokes, including a BH at net miss by Zver. FH UEs are near even (Zver 11, Djoko 9), leaving
- BH from baseline - Zver 4, Djoko 17

Very low UEFIs - Zver 44.4, Djoko 42.3.

12/16 or 80% of Zver's are neutral shots, and 21/26 or 80.7% of Djoko's are the same

Picture emerging is straight forward. The 2 trading groundstrokes, Djoko making the errors on the BH at much higher rate and in the background, most of these rallies being on Djoko's serve with Zver's serve winning him huge lot of freebies. Its not an inaccurate picture either

Is Djoko particularly loose? Or Zver particularly solid? More the former, but Zver's BH hitting is exceptional of quality - clean, hard hit shots almost always. His BH play is on par with the best of Djokovic's own better BH showings or Andre Agassi's - both great exponents of outhitting opponents BH-BH with little risk or flash. Just the basics done very, very well. In the BH rallies, its Djokovic that's pushed back and into reactive, if not defensive position. And as he's the server usually, he'd have small advantage in starting the rally most of the time

In first set, I'd far more credit Zver's BH hitting then discredit Djoko's. Dynamics are short of beat-down but stronger than out-lasting - and Zver is excellent, Djoko just normal. BH UEs for set read Zver 4 (including a net shot), Djoko 5. What stand out in the set is Zver's ability to force errors out of Djoko from the back by upping the hitting power in a way Djoko can't match

In short, Zver is more powerful hitter with ability to up it degree of hurting opponent. Djoko's left to counter-punch, and can't hurt him back. No defensive or movement problems contributing to any of that from either player. The standout feature in that area if there were one would be Zver's movements. Its as good as I've seen from anyone of his size, roughly on par with the smaller Djoko

Second set is different. Zver remains solid and hard hitting but Djokovic falters to tune of being a bit sloppy with the errors. Some loose ones when rallies are completely neutral (i.e. he's not in reactive position, as he tends to get into when the rallies go on awhile), including a few sloppy ones off third ball. Small blackmark against Djoko, but in context of being up against an immaculate, hard hitter

The close shaves all one way too. Relatively large lot of Djoko's neutral errors hit right on top of tape and/or go just out after so doing. If he wants to avoid possibility of that happening, he'd have to play with higher clearance and more spin. That's not his game. The cleaner striking Zver hits just as flat - if anything, more so - and clears net comfortably. Again, just better hitting from Zver

Getting short end of BH stick, obvious alternative for Djoko is to turn play to more FH based. Hitting strength is on that side is firm from both men and about equal. Djoko attempts to beef up his hitting - i.e. strains to hit harder - without being able to bother Zver unduly. And does not particularly look to switch to FH play. Not many rallies started that way, not many BH longline change ups to turn things that way. Djoko probably shades things FH-FH off power and given how things go on BH, would be good move to try to keep things on that wing

Summing up, very good showing from Zverev. His serve is excellent and a category and then some above Djokovic's standard showing on that front - and the advantage he gets from it is maxed out, giving him good cushion going into baseline rallies. BH cc rallies make up bulk of baseline rallies and Zverev's cc hitting is exemplary - clean and hard hits repeated like clockwork, with barely an error and ability to up it to damaging degree from that starting point. Djokovic's varies from reactively counter-punching as the lesser hitter to a bit sloppy in giving up the errors

Zverev stronger enough that he's not tested, but his showing is the basework of potentially grade A clay court tennis. Kept from it by Djokovic not being upto hanging with him from the back

 

[Waspsting]

Zverev beat Nicolas Jarry 6-4, 7-5 in the Rome final, 2024 on clay

It was Zverev’s second title at the event. Jarry was playing his first masters final

Zverev won 70 points, Jarry 51

Serve Stats
Zverev...
- 1st serve percentage (39/49) 80%
- 1st serve points won (37/39) 95%
- 2nd serve points won (7/10) 70%
- Aces 6, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (22/49) 45%

Jarry...
- 1st serve percentage (49/72) 68%
- 1st serve points won (38/49) 78%
- 2nd serve points won (8/23) 35%
- Aces 5 (1 possibly not clean), Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (17/72) 24%

Serve Patterns
Zverev served...
- to FH 48%
- to BH 50%
- to Body 2%

Jarry served...
- to FH 61%
- to BH 34%
- to Body 4%

Return Stats
Zverev made...
- 53 (31 FH, 22 BH), including 1 runaround BH
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 2 Unforced (2 BH)
- 9 Forced (6 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (53/70) 76%

Jarry made...
- 26 (11 FH, 15 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 15 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (5 FH, 4 BH)
- 6 Forced (3 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (26/48) 54%

Break Points
Zverev 2/9 (5 games)
Jarry 0

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Zverev 9 (4 FH, 3 BH, 2 OH)
Jarry 11 (6 FH, 1 BH, 3 FHV, 1 OH)

Zverev's FHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl, 2 inside-in (1 return)
- BHs - 1 inside-out, 1 inside-out/dtl, 1 running-down-drop-shot at net cc pass that can reasonably be called a BH cc pass at net

- 1 OH on the bounce

Jarry's FHs - 1 dtl, 2 inside-out (1 return), 2 drop shots, 1 running-down-drop-shot at net cc
- BH pass - 1 dtl

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a first volley FHV

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Zverev 22
- 11 Unforced (8 FH, 3 BH)... with 1 FH at net
- 11 Forced (6 FH, 5 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.4

Jarry 37
- 30 Unforced (19 FH, 11 BH)
- 7 Forced (5 FH, 2 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.3

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Zverev was 5/7 (71%) at net

Jarry was...
- 12/13 (92%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve

Match Report
High end mix of big serving and ball-bashing and Zverev is better at both. More specifically, better at handling pace on the return accounts for his big advantage on serve-return matters

Zver losing 5 service points in his 11 holds is remarkable and might be some kind of record

Other key and special stats include -
- Zver with 80% first serves in. When he does this, serving 130-140mph, doesn’t leave opponents much to work with
- Zver winning 95% first serve points. Rare to have that high a figure on any surface, let alone clay. Court isn’t particularly different from standard, slow clay court. Related…
- Zver with 45% unreturned. His serve is a handful and would be for anyone to handle, but Jarry is just not upto it. Returning from well back position and able to reach ball to hit from stable position, can’t make the returns. Just too much pace for him to handle

Jarry himself has same calibre serve, probably a shade stronger if anything, which he sends down at high 68%, winning 78% of first serves. Would be stellar figures. Another match, another opponent, those would be the ‘key and special stats’. Here, they’re shadows of Zver’s figures

And Zver can handle the pace of the serves, also returning from far back position. 24% unreturned rate for Jarry. Good for clay but again, a shadow to Zver’s yield
21% unreturned rate advantage for Zver (which alone would put him over for the win) and then they rally

Ball-bashing, here defined as hitting the ball with pressuring power, without going attackingly wide. The term is often used disparagingly. It’s a great, safe way to play, if its working. Why aim for corners and risk making errors when sheer force of shot is enough to win points? Also has usually over-looked benefit of keeping opponent from attacking, particularly handy against aggressive players. Same as ‘serve-botting’ - not the most fun for spectators, but the best, easiest way to win points. Everyone would do it if they could

Zver can and does do both

Aces/service winners - Zver 7, Jarry 6
1st serve unreturnable rate - 18%, Jarry 12%

Zver’s 12% in count lead would see him have more aces anyway, but he sends them down at slightly greater rate. Far back as both players return, takes particulalry well placed serve to go for ace

Return errors -
UEs - Zver 2, Jarry 9
FEs - Zver 9, Jarry 6

This needs some amplification. Standing where both players do, they’re able to meet the 130+ mph serves in at comfy position, with just the pace to handle. Handling 130+ serves still takes some doing. They’d almost all be marked FEs if returner was in normal position 2-3 paces behind baseline

8-10 paces behind, return is comfy enough to consider UE markings, even at 130mph. The two face about same calibre of serves

Curiously, Zver serving unusually high 61% to FH, the opposite of how he looks to rally, where he targets Jarry's BH. One would usually have a good reason for deviating from standard operating procedure of majority to BH. If Zver has one, it hasn't come out in numbers. He draws 8 FH errors, 7 BHs. Normal returning tendancy from Jarry of FH having more force than BH, with BH not bad

Zver’s greater shot tolerance coming through in his low UEs. Kinds of returns Jarry misses because of pace, Zver doesn’t. FE count is leaning towards suggesting Jarry has slightly better serve. At most, slightly. He also serves 10 more first serves, so drawing 3 more FEs (while trailing by 1 ace) isn’t conclusive. Plus, Zver doesn’t need to serve particularly good serves to draw errors, so why would he go for that bit extra and risk lowering that obscene 80% in count?

 

[Waspsting]

Most rallies don’t last long. When return comes back at all, ball-bashed third ball from both players is good to finish many points. That’s the tune playing for first serve points for both players

When rallies do develop, Zver looks to play to Jarry’s BH with BH cc’s. His BH is steadier and particularly well hit, and neutral errors come from Jarry’s (usually not after very long). Close to even contest in terms of leading & reacting. If Zver leads the rallies, its subtle

When Jarry gets ball on FH, he hammers ball, and isn’t slow to look for point-ending or at least wide attacking shots. Or very deep, slightly wide ones. Ultimately, same outcome - errors for Jarry. Zver happy to play FH cc’s and weather the power. Jarry very much dictating these rallies to the point of attacking, and Zver counter-punching and defending.

UEs by wing -
- FHs - Zver 8, Jarry 19 (including a net shot for Zver)
- BHs - Zver 3, Jarry 11

On the BH, Zver’s not just more consistent, he plays the odd shot. Couple inside-out based winners, a shot that’s always liable to catch opponents out, particularly when the guy playing it sticks to basic cc shots habitually. 3 BH winners in all. Jar’s only 1 is a pass

Some good shots from Jarry on the FH, but not worth the errors. He’s got 6 winner attempt UEs and 7 attacking ones. Almost all would be FHs. 6 FH winners and 11 total errors forced (half of them from net, not with FH). Poor yields, barely 50-50 being aggressive from the back. Zver not bad with his FH when he decides to go for shots. He’s got 4 winners off that side, with most of his UEs being neutral ones and product of give and take of rallying so

Alternatives? There aren’t many. He’s 12/13 at net, coming in from easy openings created by the serve. Once rally gets going, the ball-bashing is whatever the opposite of an invitation to take net is. Wouldn’t be a good idea to try

Possibly dialing to FH attacking play to pressure out or outlast Zver? Neutrally, Jarry has harder hit FH, though Zver’s not too troubled handling it. Whether he’d get better of just trading ball-bashed FHs is anyone’s guess, but even if he did, not within an ocean of compensating for his handicaps on serve-return and the BH

Jarry has good form in his shots (as in, they look good and solid), without the awkwardness that tends to come with very tall players (he’s listed as being 6 feet, 7 inches). Looking good and being able to keep ball in play are two different things, and his shortcomings are of that most basic nature

Zverev solidly strong in his ground game. BH is stronger and steadier than Jarry’s. FH can hang in with his in terms of force. Comfy counter-punching and able to withstand powerful FHs. And he’s better mover (and has to be, given he’s more often reacting), his movement being particularly good, Jarry’s decent, average. Solidly good ball-bashing is good stuff, and gets a sharp edge from occasional indulgence in shot-making, of both wings, the ability to pick a random ball and dispatch it. Also, wise not to over-indulge such unnecessary extravagances

Comparison with ‘17 Final
This showing is a beefed up version of the ‘17 final from Zver

Considerably more power here than ‘17, both on Zver’s serve and his groundies. Can’t fault him for the pushy showing in ‘17 (if its working, its good), but here, his force of stock shots is lot stronger. In ‘17, it was a who-blink-first type encounter testing consistency (pushing). Here, shot resistance is just as important (ball-bashing)

Ditto with the serve - good serving for his first title, very good here

Striking statistical similarities between the matches 7 years apart

- 0 break points for Zver’s opponent
- Zver’s unreturned rates - here 45%, then 42%
- Zver’s return rate - here 76%, then 77%
- Winners - Zverv 9 both years, his opponents 11 here, 10 then
- Errors forced - Zver 7 both years
- Opponent’s UEs accounting for biggest chunk of points - 30 here, 26 then
- Zver with 7 net points in both matches (wins 5 here, 2 then)
- Opponents success rate at net (12/13 here, 7/7 then)

This is Zver’s 4th masters title on clay and he hasn’t faced break point in 3 of the finals. Jarry might simply be not upto standard to cope, but other two opponents (Djokovic and Dominic Thiem) were experienced, well established clay courters. I don’t think even Rafael Nadal’s won 3 masters finals without facing break point (and he has a few more than 4 titles), though obviously, his game is less serve shot based

Hard to put down 3/4 wins with no break point faced as a coincidence

UEFI’s sum up difference in styles of two matches
In 2017, they were low 44.4 and 42.3. Pushing match numbers
Here, 46.4 and 46.3. Ball-bashing match numbers

Match Progression
Serve-bott’ish first set. Zver loses 1 service point all set, makes 19/21 first serves and wins all 19. For that matter, Jarry isn’t too far behind, winning 17/20 first serve points, but with ‘just’ 20/31 first serves in

Zver starts off as he continues - hold to love, 4 unreturned serves, the first 3 aces
Jarry responds in kind as far as love hold goes, but with just 2 unreturned serves (no aces)
Zver with another love hold - another ace, an unexpected BH inside-out/dtl winner and a third ball FH cc winner in there

Zver gets into game 4, which takes 10 points, with Jarry having to take net to come away with hold. He makes 8/10 first serves in the game. Next game, whacks the first 2nd serve he sees for a winner. Way to make most of seeing a second serve. Zver responds with 3 unreturned first serves (2 UEs)

Baseline blinks sees Jarry down 15-40 in game 8. Responds with 2 winning groundies (third ball FH dtl winner and powerful BH cc) before banging down couple of strong serves to hold

Zver with a nice BH inside-out winner in holding to move to 5-4. And he breaks to end things, with Jarry making 1/5 first serves and giving up aggressive FH UEs, with Zver helping out with a winning FH dtl

Second set is similar though less serve-bottish and Zver still in command. He loses 4 service points in the set, while 4 of Jarry’s last 5 games go to deuce, before he finally gives up the break to end things

Zver dismisses a FH inside-in return winner early in game 4. Nice touch to keep opponent on toes. He has 2 break points later in the game, which Jarry gets through commandingly

FH error riddled game for both players next time round on Jarry’s serve (Zver of course holding to love in beween), with strong serves being the difference that sees Jarry hold another deuce game

Jarry finally gets a comfy hold. And then wins 2 return points in next game, ending Zver’s run of firs serve points won at 31. A very good running-down-drop-shot cc winner at net is what does it and couple points later, he gets a BH dtl passing winner off while stretched out, as Zver’s in no-man’s land on his way to net. 30-30, 4-4. Jarry’s just doubled the number of return points he’s won all match over 3 points

Gets into rally next point too, but misses an FH approach shot, before Zver puts game to bed with a service winner

Consecutive double faults (his first ones of the match) by Jarry have him down 15-40 and 2 match points next game. Comes away with the hold, starting by gaining a rare BH UE from Zver
Zver throws in his first (and as it turns out, last) double fault in holding to 15 for 6-5

And finally does what he’s been threatening to most of set and breaks to end match. Some smart, as well as well-executed stuff from Zver in the game. He’d been playing BH cc to predictable extent and Jarry getting more comfy handling that line of play, so a longline change-up catches Jarry out. His soft response is dispatched FH dtl for a winner. Zver finally seals the match with a winning FH inside-in on a point he started with rare runaround BH return - another example of his ability to make winning shots when he chooses to look for them

Summing up, very good stuff from Zverev. His serve is excellent and would take very high quality returning to cope with. Jarry is not of that standard and is left floundering by it. Jarry’s own serve is just as impressive, but Zverev is a lot better at handling pace and is able to return with fair comfort

Baseline action is made up of ball-bashing rallies, both players hitting hard enough to be pressuring. Zverev has stronger and steadier BH and is able to handle pace of Jarry’s stronger FH, which ends up failing when trying to up the aggressive ante

Jarry has power and good form on his shots, plus a big serve. His shot resistance on the return isn’t upto what its tasked with. In all, looks a little out of his league, but it’s a very high league

 

[InsideOut900]

Djoko's level in that 2017 final was way subpar after the demolishion of Thiem in the semifinal, which was his best match all year.