ATX Tennis
Rookie
Sorry if this is readily accessible...I couldn’t find it. When is the last date that this year’s matches will count towards end of year ratings? Usually it’s some date in mid-late October. Thanks!
Depends how you do, depends how your team does.Fearing end of year...do not want to move up. Curious. If your team qualifies for nationals, do folks tend to get moved up?
Depends how you do, depends how your team does.
Even teams that make semis and/or win don't have every player bumped up, but Nationals team members certainly do get bumped up at a higher rate than the rest of the players.
If you just can't wait, I know a guy who does estimated DNTRP reports that are pretty reliable:Thanks. Guess we'll see in a couple of weeks.
Who actually designates who is bumped up or down? Is it admins at National level, Sectional level or district level?
Nope, 11/28, starting around 7pm PST.Last year it was released November 20ish, I thought..
I don't think Open tournaments count, although I think it may be at a section's discretion.@schmke I think I may have asked you this before, but do Open tournament results count toward NTRP?
I have a win over a guy who is about 4.80 DNTRP and was 10.72 UTR in an Open tournament.
Since it isn't reflected on TennisRecord, my DNTRP is still about 4.52 and my UTR is now 10.51.
Yeah, it is generally safe to assume the Monday after Thanksgiving, sometimes it stretches into the Tuesday or Wednesday depending on when Thanksgiving falls and if the USTA gets it done in time.I was told 12/2 this year but not 100% sure of the validity. Either way it's always after Thanksgiving weekend
Yeah, it is generally safe to assume the Monday after Thanksgiving, sometimes it stretches into the Tuesday or Wednesday depending on when Thanksgiving falls and if the USTA gets it done in time.
I get what you’re saying, but if it were that simple, the ratings should be ready by today since it looks like all nationals are over but mixed. They’ve been doing it long enough that whatever adjustments are made for the sections that do well or poorly can easily be run through a computer calculation. So why would it take 3 more weeks if some level of human looking at them doesn’t take place. Methinks lists are shared at some level, maybe local, for input.It is a computer. Basically an algorithm that spits out a number.
At the end of the year at the national level there may be some tweaks where adjustments are made based on how certain sections performed at nationals.
(e.g. if your particular section performed very well in post season play the ratings of that section in general may be pushed a little higher, if the section as a whole did poorly post season then the entire section may get a downward push)
But it is not an actual human looking at an individual record and making a determination, except in perhaps some rare cases (like people who stood out in post season play and likely to get double-bumped)
Well, I do have my year-end calculations done! Preliminary ones anyway.I get what you’re saying, but if it were that simple, the ratings should be ready by today since it looks like all nationals are over but mixed. They’ve been doing it long enough that whatever adjustments are made for the sections that do well or poorly can easily be run through a computer calculation. So why would it take 3 more weeks if some level of human looking at them doesn’t take place. Methinks lists are shared at some level, maybe local, for input.
Just curious... Does mixed or combo count towards year end rating? And what about tournament results over the next couple weeks? Do they get factored into this or next years rating? Thanks!Well, I do have my year-end calculations done! Preliminary ones anyway.
So yeah, the USTA "should" be able to do it sooner too, but I think they have some built in review cycles to make sure nothing has run amuck, and I think there is some opportunity for regional adjustments after looking at what the computer spits out. Certainly some years there have been a lot of bumps up over all or in different regions that I think could only be explained by manual review and adjustment.
Mixed only counts if you play only Mixed. Otherwise it is just your Adult league matches (and those leagues that your section opts in to including). Combo almost never counts, although again, it is something a section can opt to include. I think tournaments played after 11/10 won't count for 2019.Just curious... Does mixed or combo count towards year end rating? And what about tournament results over the next couple weeks? Do they get factored into this or next years rating? Thanks!
@schmke If I remember correctly you have to have 3 postseason matches for those matches to receive extra weight in your ratings calculation? Is that still the case? If you only have two rated postseason matches, do they treat it just like your regular season matches?
Thanks. Funny enough my two matches at districts are already 40% of my total rated matches this year. The sad life of a 4.5 in a lot of areasThis is from an older document but provides some useful guidance on how postseason matches are weighted (20% for 1 postseason match, 40% for 2 postseason matches, 50% for 3 or more postseason matches): http://assets.usta.com/assets/558/Microsites/dps/usta_master/usta/doc/content/doc_90_106.pdf
I believe elements of it are still accurate, but it was over 10 years ago and some things have changed.
Fearing end of year...do not want to move up. Curious. If your team qualifies for nationals, do folks tend to get moved up?
I would love to know the cause of the error in Tennis Record and TLS (and maybe, to a lesser extent, in @schmke's ratings). The algorithm itself seems fairly straightforward, so the errors must result in playoff adjustments. But can that explain it all?
I do not think the issue with TR ratings is limited to the weight of post-season matches. Throughout the year, once my # of rated matches goes beyond 12, the difference in rating results, compared to the @schmke reports I receive once a quarter is stark. Only at the end of September their ratings matched after about 55+ matches.Is TR error distributed randomly? From your (@leech's) earlier comment, it seemed like the errors were all underrating (playoff results). TLS looks much lower on average than TR from what I can see, which would mean that it's even more inaccurate?
I agree, the algorithm should be fairly easy to replicate... IF one had the starting ratings for all players. But because this (hugely significant) data point is not made available, the sites and others cannot be accurate. Over time, it's possible to hone in closer to the actual dynamic ratings by looking at players on the fringes, to see which players actually bumped or not. But the postseason and particularly the Nationals weighting make it impossible for these sites to be accurate, agree?The document posted above says that a .29 difference equals 4 games. Another USTA document says that the expected score between 3.01 and 3.49 is 12 games. Isn't that enough data to estimate the (non-playoff adjusted) algorithm? It's just that and rolling averages, right? I'm sure the expected .48 spread is tighter at the marginal levels, but that can't be the source of all the error.
I do incorporate year-end calculations and refine them more each year, with continued improvements in my accuracy. My ratings are still not perfect, but my experience and that of others that I hear from and many that post here, is that they are more accurate than the alternatives.My hunches:
(1) TR ratings are vastly off from @schmke's, and presumably, the actual dynamic ratings as calculated by the USTA. It isn't unusual for these estimates to be off by 0.25 to 0.40, which is huge spread!
(2) The TR ratings do not assign greater weight to postseason matches, as the USTA does (I believe @schmke does, if you order a year-end report from him)
(3) No one knows the additional weight the USTA assigns for Nationals semis/finals participants, and the resultant trickle-down effect.
(4) I suspect manual adjustments can be made at the Section level (just not to those that have played at Nationals semis/finals...seems those are "absolute" ratings that cannot be manually adjusted).
Oaf. This sort of bump up/down rate would be wildly inconsistent with normal years in general. Either players in your area played very poorly this year, or TR is a tad inaccurate for your area. Few bump ups is not uncommon at higher levels, but only 7 up and 50 down at 3.5 is highly unusual. Who knows, perhaps everyone is managing their rating looking to form a super team at 3.0 and 3.5 next year ;-)Other fun TR stats for my area.
4.5 to 5.0 – 3 Bump ups and 15 bump downs
4.0 to 4.5 – 1 bump ups and 19 bump downs
3.5 to 4.0 – 7 bump ups and 50 bump downs
TR doesn't think very highly of us.
I looked at another area and it was a pretty even distribution so its not their algorithm. I wonder if were gonna get an above average number of bump downs this year.Oaf. This sort of bump up/down rate would be wildly inconsistent with normal years in general. Either players in your area played very poorly this year, or TR is a tad inaccurate for your area. Few bump ups is not uncommon at higher levels, but only 7 up and 50 down at 3.5 is highly unusual. Who knows, perhaps everyone is managing their rating looking to form a super team at 3.0 and 3.5 next year ;-)
Here is some analysis I shared with my 3.5 ladies team this week, based off of TennisRecord data (which not only is wildly inaccurate, but has been down for the last couple of days!):
In anticipation of the new ratings for 2020 (expected to be released Dec 2), I took a look at the 2018 40+ 3.5W National Champion team to see how many of them got bumped for the following season. The champs from PacNW had 18 ladies on the roster, including a couple of 3.0 players.
All bumped to 4.0 for 2019, except players with these records and TR ratings:
14-8; 3.30
11-5; 3.29
17-12; 3.23
11-5; 3.17
9-3; 2.95
1-1; 2.79
1-5; no rating
3-4; no rating
Everyone above 3.30 bumped, plus a 3.24 lady (who was just 14-6, 5-4 in postseason). Overall, just 10 of 18 bumped to 4.0.
If 2018 is any indication, then everyone on our team that is rated 3.30 and lower may be safe from bump up:
30-28; 3.30
36-11; 3.28
41-26; 3.23
36-32; 3.20
6-2; 3.19
64-26; 3.16
11-4; 3.07
Those of you that have estimated TR ratings above 3.30 should brace yourselves for the possibility of getting bumped....
Perhaps 2018 was an anomaly for 3.5 bump ups in MidAtlantic. 19 of the 20 guys on my 40+ 3.5 Nationals-winning team got bumped, including players with these TR stats:
3.28; 72-39 (2-4 in postseason)
3.28; 44-23 (2-0 in postseason)
3.32: 65-27 (2-1 in postseason)
3.32; 27-16 (didn’t play postseason)
3.36; 102-45 (3-3 in postseason)
3.39; 51-43 (1-0 in postseason)
And the 2018 18+ 3.5W from MidAtlantic went just 1-3 at Nationals, but had all but four 3.5 ladies bump up (and two of them appealed UP anyway), including ladies with these TR stats:
3.29; 97-49 (6-4 in postseason)
3.33; 37-16 (1-0 in postseason)
3.37; 105-37 (7-3 in postseason)
3.40; 56-34 (4-2 in postseason)
Seems they really gave a lot of weight to making Nationals, at least in 2018 among the MidAtlantic 3.5 population.