ESPN investigates the "randomness" of Grand Slam draws

[tacou]

Youzhny vs Llodra meet in the first round 2 weeks in a row! Montreal/Cinci are obviously in cahoots with their draw making

another 3rd set TB??

not only are draws rigged, I think each match is scripted!

 

[Rhino]

Except for maybe Ginepri in 2004 who are the strong first round opponents. Gingepri was a nobody tour rookie in 2002 who as you show wasnt even in the top 100. Corretja was forever gone in confidence and form by 2003 and as you show had dropped out of the top 100. I have never heard of Sabau. Pavel was in his twilight years by 2006 just as Agassi was.

It's a 128 player draw with 32 seeds and these are first round opponents.

The point is, it's a far cary from Scoville Jenkins, who in 2004 was ranked 1,433rd when he faced Roddick in the first round.

 

[Snaab]

Ask Kafelnikov what he thinks of USTA, I mean USOpen draws

See exerpt from August 26, 1996 article:
Yevgeny Kafelnikov, seeded seventh in the US Open despite being ranked fourth in the world, withdrew from the Grand Slam event, which starts today, in protest over what he calls unfair seeding practices.

The US Association dropped the 22-year-old Russian three places from his world ranking despite his winning the French Open.

"I was shocked when I saw what they did to me," Kafelnikov said. "I deserve to be seeded No 4. I won a Grand Slam tournament and consider myself a good hard-court player. I am disappointed, but I am sending a warning."

The draw for the 128-player men's field - minus the 16 seeds - was made in a non-public meeting on Tuesday night. The next morning, at a public ceremony, the seeded players were announced and their names were selected from a cup to determine exactly where they would be placed in the draw.

In an unprecedented move sparked by the threat of a players' boycott, the USTA redid the draw on Thursday for the year's final Grand Slam tournament. "They basically set up the draw in favour of American players," Kafelnikov said.

This is nice - "the draw was made in a non-public meeting", ostensibly to ensure proper randomness! The USTA sux.

 

[Sartorius]

That would explain Federer's ridiculous draws year after year at the USO, including several opponents out of the top 100 and what not, 2008- hum Fed's "mono" year, coincidence?- is a mindboggling example of that, a year when he would have lost in early rounds for sure if he hadn't met the biggest (and worst ranked) clowns available in them (Obviously there is a lot of American money invested in Fed) Now that he's #3 though, I am really, really interested to see if the easy draw will befall new #1 Djoko or if #3 will be the new cakewalk draw for this year (that kind of alteration in the pattern should be easily noticeable)

To me, the Fed special treatment at USO is just the most spectacular example of rigged draws that I've seen in the last 30 years or so and it happened with a player who was a huge star and a huge box office favorite arriving in 2008 with the worst tennis form of his life and 0 confidence after a catastrophic summer hard court season and out of pure chance getting a perfectly ludicrous draw, Nadal's 2010 draw doesn't even start to compare with Fed duking it out with Mr Thiago Alves and co.
Maybe draws are not rigged at all but if they are, I can't think of a better example than USO 2008 (and USO 2009 with Fed fooling around with Mr 1500 or so). It was clear in 2008 that if Fed had had to play any top 100 in any kind of decent form from the get go, he would have been in big trouble (and don't even get me started on USO 2010 when he got Dabul, Beck and Matthieu (both out of top 100) for a starter, seriously...)

ETA: in the infamous 2008 edition, they also managed to completely sabotage the semis schedule, forcing the finalist from the other side of the draw to play 3 days in a row after DELAYING the ( already too late) planned start of the semi on a day of a hurricane and ensuring there was no possible way to complete the match that day.

Just quoting these to showcase what it looks like when someone vomits their hate and senselessness ... It looks like vomit.

 

[Gizo]

Jeremy Chardy and Frederico Gil were drawn to face each other in the 1st round of the French Open, Wimbledon and the US Open in 2008 which was pretty funny. Chardy won all 3 matches.

 

[sjam316]

I honestly thought the Wimbledon draw would be caught for not being "random". However, I watched the show on ESPN and they clearly stated that the USO was the only grand slam that statistically does not seem random.

 

[Tony48]

I think that Isner-Mahut rematch should almost conclusively say that the draws had some human assistance. They had a chance to publicize one of last year's main attractions.

Remember that 11-hour match? We get to talk about it again! Look at the sign we made to commemorate that match! Will it me as epic as it was again last year???? Who knows!!! But you better watch again to find out!!!!!

 

[Rippy]

I think that Isner-Mahut rematch should almost conclusively say that the draws had some human assistance. They had a chance to publicize one of last year's main attractions.

Remember that 11-hour match? We get to talk about it again! Look at the sign we made to commemorate that match! Will it me as epic as it was again last year???? Who knows!!! But you better watch again to find out!!!!!

If that was the case, why did they put it on Court 3? Surely if they did it for publicity, they'd have it on Centre or Court 1 to get maximum attention for the match?

 

[Soianka]

Lastly, the Scolville Jenkins thing is so irrelevant. He only had a 2% chance of playing a top 2 seed--that doesn't mean it's impossible!

It's not irrelevant. It is an example of the possible draw fixing that the study indicates may be happening.

2% chance is a very low chance, but what is the chance of it happening two times to the same guy. Once facing Roddick in the first round and then once facing Federer.

Possibly it was just bad luck for Scoville but probably it was not based on the chance of that happening.

 

[Tony48]

If that was the case, why did they put it on Court 3? Surely if they did it for publicity, they'd have it on Centre or Court 1 to get maximum attention for the match?

I said they rig the draw, not the scheduling

 

[Rippy]

I said they rig the draw, not the scheduling

yeah I know, but you'd think if they were going to rig the draw to get that "interesting matchup" of Mahut and Isner, they'd also put them on a show court.

 

[tacou]

It's not irrelevant. It is an example of the possible draw fixing that the study indicates may be happening.

2% chance is a very low chance, but what is the chance of it happening two times to the same guy. Once facing Roddick in the first round and then once facing Federer.

Possibly it was just bad luck for Scoville but probably it was not based on the chance of that happening.

2% is a legitimate possibility and it came true, that does not suggest draw-rigging at all. if it was <1% maybe that'd be a bit more intriguing.

and also, as others have stated, why would the USTA rig it so one of their own is eliminated in the first round? there were plenty of other non-American schlubs to be drawn against Andy, no?