Examining the Possibilities of the 2022 Roland Garros Draw

Forgive Me Father

Hall of Fame
So, the basis of draws:

In the 3rd round, seeds 1-16 meet/encounter 17-32 (1-8 meets 25-32, 9-16 meets 17-23).
In the 4th round seeds 1-8 meet seeds 9-16 (1-4 meets 13-16, 5-8 meets 9-12).
In the quarterfinal, seeds 1-4 meet seeds 5-8.
In the semifinal, seeds 1-2 meet seeds 2-3.
In the final, first seed meets second seed.

Current standings:

1) Djokovic
2) Zverev (Medvedev won't play RG?)
3) Nadal
4) Tsitsipas
5) Berrettini
6) Ruud
7) Rublev
8) Alcaraz
9) FAA
10) Norrie
11) Sinner
...

meaning in the 4th round, the 5-8 seeds meet 9-13, which opens the possibility of an Alcaraz-Sinner match at that stage.

1-4 are "equal" in the quarterfinal, meaning Alcaraz could fell to Djokovic or Nadal (regardless of if Nadal moves into top 2).

I think RG will largely be decided by where Alcaraz falls to.

If Nadal does not make top 2, and lands in Djokovic's half and has Alcaraz in his quarter, I very much doubt he will be able to pull trough stamina-wise.

Of course the odds are against both of that happening, but it could.

Either way, Alcaraz' placement is eagerly anticipated.

So will be Sinner (9-12 group), Fokina (25-32), Korda and Kecmanovic (25-32!) and Botic (25-32), Musetti probably unseeded (!), Rune probably unseeded (!), Thiem, Fognini, Djere and Fucsovics unseeded.
 
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_phantom

Hall of Fame
Medvedev is practicing on clay. I think he will play RG.

If Tsitsipas does well in Madrid and Rome, and Nadal is knocked out early, the latter faces the possibility of being the 5th seed and facing Djokovic as early as QF at RG.
 

Nadal_King

Hall of Fame
Medvedev is practicing on clay. I think he will play RG.

If Tsitsipas does well in Madrid and Rome, and Nadal is knocked out early, the latter faces the possibility of being the 5th seed and facing Djokovic as early as QF at RG.
But with that he avoids Alcaraz before Sf atleast and who knows if he falls in opposite half to djokovic it's all sorted but with 3rd-4th seed it could get really bad
 

Nadal - GOAT

Hall of Fame
Medvedev is practicing on clay. I think he will play RG.

If Tsitsipas does well in Madrid and Rome, and Nadal is knocked out early, the latter faces the possibility of being the 5th seed and facing Djokovic as early as QF at RG.
I would prefer Rafa vs Novak QF rather than SF/Final. Rafa will be fresher/ more chances of a day time match/ Less pressure.
 

_phantom

Hall of Fame
But with that he avoids Alcaraz before Sf atleast and who knows if he falls in opposite half to djokovic it's all sorted but with 3rd-4th seed it could get really bad

Nadal, with a 3rd-4th seeding has the possibility of meeting Alcaraz in QF and Djokovic in SF.

With a 5th seedling, he meets Djokovic in QF and Alcaraz in SF. Again at worst.

In either case, he may get a non nightmarish draw too.
 

Nadal_King

Hall of Fame
I would prefer Rafa vs Novak QF rather than SF/Final. Rafa will be fresher/ more chances of a day time match/ Less pressure.
That day match chance is sure shot only in final rest the organisers would surely make it happen at night due to there new found slot on the schedule which will have full crowds as well this year
 

_phantom

Hall of Fame
I would prefer Rafa vs Novak QF rather than SF/Final. Rafa will be fresher/ more chances of a day time match/ Less pressure.

If Nadal meets Djokovic, he and his team will want it to be the finals.

Djokovic's team will want it earlier. Two wins for Djokovic against Nadal at RG came in QF and SF.
 
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Nadal - GOAT

Hall of Fame
If Nadal meets Djokovic, he and his team will want it to be the finals.

Djokovic's team will want it earlier. Two wins for Djokovic against Nadal at RG came in QF and SF.
Maybe.. the key is how is the draw divided. Rafa, Novak, Stef and Alcaraz are the top 4. The ideal situation would be Novak, Stef, Alcaraz in one half and Rafa in the other with Med, Zverev.

Being 5th seed may result in a better draw than 4th for Rafa.
 
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Forgive Me Father

Hall of Fame
So Sinner actually fell off into the 9-13 group which has pretty big implications for R4.

He is 70 points behind Hurkacz and only defending a R2 apperance, however Hurkacz isn't defending any Rome points. Nothing coming off for him.

Norrie is 320 points ahead.
 

AgassiSuperSlam11

Hall of Fame
I believe Medvedev is taking a wildcard for a 250 event in Geneva before RG. I think it's likely that Nadal is #4 and every other seed goes down one. If Nadal exits early in Rome (defending 1000 points) he may end up as #5 and Stefanos can be #4 (if he wins or makes it to Final). Imagine if both Joker and Bull get thrown under the bus and face each other in the QF then needing to defeat a combination of Alcaraz or Tsitisipas/Zverev to win the title? Stranger things have happened.
 

AgassiSuperSlam11

Hall of Fame
If Nadal meets Djokovic, he and his team will want it to be the finals.

Djokovic's team will want it earlier. Two wins for Djokovic against Nadal at RG came in QF and SF.

Even the 2013 RG SF was very close, and it went to a 9-7 fifth set. Nadal is 30-9 in bo5 finals, and he prefers the topspin in early afternoon and can read opponent's serve better. I think it's likely they will be in the same half of the draw and Alcaraz will be in the other so there can be the big final of Alcaraz against one of the old legends.
 
T

TheNachoMan

Guest
I hope Novak gets Ruud, Rublev, and Hurkacz in his draw. Nadal can get Alcaraz and Zverev. lol
 

Raz11

Professional
I believe Medvedev is taking a wildcard for a 250 event in Geneva before RG. I think it's likely that Nadal is #4 and every other seed goes down one. If Nadal exits early in Rome (defending 1000 points) he may end up as #5 and Stefanos can be #4 (if he wins or makes it to Final). Imagine if both Joker and Bull get thrown under the bus and face each other in the QF then needing to defeat a combination of Alcaraz or Tsitisipas/Zverev to win the title? Stranger things have happened.

When you remove the points from Rome, the current rankings are

Medvedev 7980
Djokovic 7670
Zverev 6850
Tsitsipas 5580
Nadal 5445.

Tsitsipas only has to perform as well as Nadal to overtake ie both reach SF. Nadal would need to win Rome to ensure the top 4 seed. Djokovic also has to reach SF to stay as world no 1. Good chance Nadal will win Rome again so i don't think he will drop to 5th seed anyway.
 

Gt86

Professional
I hope Novak gets Ruud, Rublev, and Hurkacz in his draw. Nadal can get Alcaraz and Zverev. lol
Djokovic would not get through that draw if it happened. Don't dismiss Ruud. Very dangerous on clay. Rublev also on his day can be dangerous
 

_phantom

Hall of Fame
Even the 2013 RG SF was very close, and it went to a 9-7 fifth set. Nadal is 30-9 in bo5 finals, and he prefers the topspin in early afternoon and can read opponent's serve better. I think it's likely they will be in the same half of the draw and Alcaraz will be in the other so there can be the big final of Alcaraz against one of the old legends.

If draws are really rigged, Nadal and Djokovic will surely be put in the same half. It's a win-win for the organizers. By ensuring an earlier Djokodal encounter, they make it more probable. Plus a new champion which they want desperately is more likely too because he will not need to beat both of them.
 

Gt86

Professional
When you remove the points from Rome, the current rankings are

Medvedev 7980
Djokovic 7670
Zverev 6850
Tsitsipas 5580
Nadal 5445.

Tsitsipas only has to perform as well as Nadal to overtake ie both reach SF. Nadal would need to win Rome to ensure the top 4 seed. Djokovic also has to reach SF to stay as world no 1. Good chance Nadal will win Rome again so i don't think he will drop to 5th seed anyway.
Medvedev won't play RG I don't think.
So it will be..
1. Djokovic
2. Zverev
3. Tsitsipas
4. Nadal
5. Alcaraz.
Almost certain Nadal and Alcaraz will play in the quarter finals. Knowing the French Open ove the years of watching the draws since 2008 Nadal has always been given the hardest draw possible the good news is he can't be in same half as Tsitsipas who I've a feeling will be very dangerous this year. I dislike him and don't rate him but for some reason I have a hunch the final will be Tsitsipas v Alcaraz
 

_phantom

Hall of Fame
Medvedev won't play RG I don't think.
So it will be..
1. Djokovic
2. Zverev
3. Tsitsipas
4. Nadal
5. Alcaraz.
Almost certain Nadal and Alcaraz will play in the quarter finals. Knowing the French Open ove the years of watching the draws since 2008 Nadal has always been given the hardest draw possible the good news is he can't be in same half as Tsitsipas who I've a feeling will be very dangerous this year. I dislike him and don't rate him but for some reason I have a hunch the final will be Tsitsipas v Alcaraz

Med is returning in Geneva the week before RG. He will be there in Paris.

 

Gt86

Professional
If draws are really rigged, Nadal and Djokovic will surely be put in the same half. It's a win-win for the organizers. By ensuring an earlier Djokodal encounter, they make it more probable. Plus a new champion which they want desperately is more likely too because he will not need to beat both of them.
In the past Djokovic tended to get favourable draws compared to Rafa. This year though it will be interesting as Macron hates anti vaxxers and he will be well aware of Djokovic not being vaxxxed. It sounds paranoid but I just cannot see for some reason an anti vaxxer winning in Paris. I know politics and sport should never mix but sadly they do.
 

Gt86

Professional
Med is returning in Geneva the week before RG. He will be there in Paris.

Nadal likely to be 5th seed then (he won't win Rome) which is a godsend as that means impossible to be in same quarter or half as Alcaraz who will be seeded 6th.
 

_phantom

Hall of Fame
Nadal likely to be 5th seed then (he won't win Rome) which is a godsend as that means impossible to be in same quarter or half as Alcaraz who will be seeded 6th.

If Nadal is 5th seed, Alcaraz will not be in his quarter, but can be in his half. All seeds in 5-8 are treated equally so 5th and 6th can be drawn in the same half.

Plus the possibility of meeting Djokovic in QF.

Being seeded lower seldom gives you a better draw.
 
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TheNachoMan

Guest
Djokovic would not get through that draw if it happened. Don't dismiss Ruud. Very dangerous on clay. Rublev also on his day can be dangerous
Ruud ain’t doing anything to Djokovic in a slam. Neither is Rublev.
 

Cortana

Legend
Nadals draw:

R4: Sinner
QF: Alcaraz
SF: Tsitsipas
F: Djokovic

Djokovics draw:

R4: noname
QF: Rublev
SF: Berrettini
F: Nadal
 

weakera

Talk Tennis Guru
Medvedev won't play RG I don't think.
So it will be..
1. Djokovic
2. Zverev
3. Tsitsipas
4. Nadal
5. Alcaraz.
Almost certain Nadal and Alcaraz will play in the quarter finals. Knowing the French Open ove the years of watching the draws since 2008 Nadal has always been given the hardest draw possible the good news is he can't be in same half as Tsitsipas who I've a feeling will be very dangerous this year. I dislike him and don't rate him but for some reason I have a hunch the final will be Tsitsipas v Alcaraz


Medvedev will almost certainly be playing.
 

Nadal - GOAT

Hall of Fame
Nadals draw:

R4: Sinner
QF: Alcaraz
SF: Tsitsipas
F: Djokovic

Djokovics draw:

R4: noname
QF: Rublev
SF: Berrettini
F: Nadal
Rafa has been unlucky with the draw.. Though I believe this time he will be lucky.

Alcaraz, Tsitsipas, Novak in one half and Rafa in the other. That would make it a perfect RG draw.
 

Gt86

Professional
Medvedev will almost certainly be playing.
That's perfect for Rafa as if he is no.5 seed which he will probably be then by my calculations he is certain to be in opposite halves to Alcaraz as 5 and 6 won't be in same half.
 

Gt86

Professional
If Nadal is 5th seed, Alcaraz will not be in his quarter, but can be in his half. All seeds in 5-8 are treated equally so 5th and 6th can be drawn in the same half.

Plus the possibility of meeting Djokovic in QF.

Being seeded lower seldom gives you a better draw.
I have never ever seen 5 and 6 in same half. Have seen 4 and 5 in same half but never 5 and 6 or 6 and 7 or 7 and 8 .
It's usually 1v 7/8
2v7/8
3v5/6
4v 5/6
The idea is higher ranked players get a better draw. I agree not always the case but the vast majority of times the above plays out
 

weakera

Talk Tennis Guru
That's perfect for Rafa as if he is no.5 seed which he will probably be then by my calculations he is certain to be in opposite halves to Alcaraz as 5 and 6 won't be in same half.

In theory yes. Can you imagine the salt if Rafa draws QF/SF of Zverev/Medvedev, with all of Tsitsipas/Alcaraz/Djokovic on the other half? We will drown in tears on this board.
 

TimHenmanATG

Hall of Fame
So many of the Top 20 are ripe for the taking on clay.

I know that's not exactly unusual for Roland Garros, but it's still nice to see a little bit of meaningful surface diversity.
 

junior74

Bionic Poster
I think there's a chance Carlito won't be able to play. We may get another "epic" Djokodal SF and a "watch pain(t) dry" final.

Rune, Stan and Van de Zand will do damage.
 

_phantom

Hall of Fame
I have never ever seen 5 and 6 in same half. Have seen 4 and 5 in same half but never 5 and 6 or 6 and 7 or 7 and 8 .
It's usually 1v 7/8
2v7/8
3v5/6
4v 5/6
The idea is higher ranked players get a better draw. I agree not always the case but the vast majority of times the above plays out

In Monte Carlo this year Rublev and FAA were in the same half. They were 5th and 6th seed. I think it happens quite regularly.

There is a possibility that Med only wants to secure #1 before Wimbledon so that a lot of weight can be put to his participation. If Djokodal happens in Rome and Nadal wins, Med will need to win just two matches in Geneva to be back at #1. If Djokovic loses in earlier rounds, Med doesn't need to play.

I hope Med skips RG. His presence there as a top-2 seed can make the draw very lopsided.
 

Gt86

Professional
In Monte Carlo this year Rublev and FAA were in the same half. They were 5th and 6th seed. I think it happens quite regularly.

There is a possibility that Med only wants to secure #1 before Wimbledon so that a lot of weight can be put to his participation. If Djokodal happens in Rome and Nadal wins, Med will need to win just two matches in Geneva to be back at #1. If Djokovic loses in earlier rounds, Med doesn't need to play.

I hope Med skips RG. His presence there as a top-2 seed can make the draw very lopsided.
I'd like Nadal to get Djokovic in quarterfinals. Earlier the better as Nadal will be fresher.ater the better with Alcaraz as later in the event more nerves for Alcaraz
 

Gt86

Professional
In theory yes. Can you imagine the salt if Rafa draws QF/SF of Zverev/Medvedev, with all of Tsitsipas/Alcaraz/Djokovic on the other half? We will drown in tears on this board.
That would be hilarious. Good news is Rafa went to Rome straight after Madrid. He is hungry. Methinks he is giving a little nudge and wink as to what storm he is planning on unleashing at RG.
 

Nadal - GOAT

Hall of Fame
Is this correct? Maths is not my strong point.
Yes.. looks about right. The question though is which seeding will result in a better draw for Rafa? 4th or 5th? It is like a toss of a coin. There is a good chance that being 5th seeded could result in Med and Zverev being in the same half as Rafa. That would definitely be better than having Tsitsipas and Novak.
 

Rattie

Legend
Yes.. looks about right. The question though is which seeding will result in a better draw for Rafa? 4th or 5th? It is like a toss of a coin. There is a good chance that being 5th seeded could result in Med and Zverev being in the same half as Rafa. That would definitely be better than having Tsitsipas and Novak.
Yeah I don’t think it makes too much difference. Unlike Djokovic, he seems to regularly get tough draws wherever he plays.
 

weakera

Talk Tennis Guru
The results of the week don't make a difference for RG. Anywhere from 1-5 in the rankings could get a good or a bad draw.
 

aldeayeah

G.O.A.T.
The results of the week don't make a difference for RG. Anywhere from 1-5 in the rankings could get a good or a bad draw.
Yeah kinda.

By having Med/Zed who are not favorites in the top 4 seeds, while two of Nadal/Tsitsipas/Alcaraz will be 5-8, the difference between 1-4 and 5-8 isn't that big.

The big question is if the 1-4 favorites and the 5-8 favorites will be spread out or clustered together.

Nadal/Djokovic/Tsitsipas/Alcaraz being all in the same half is a possibility lol
 

Nadal - GOAT

Hall of Fame
Yeah kinda.

By having Med/Zed who are not favorites in the top 4 seeds, while two of Nadal/Tsitsipas/Alcaraz will be 5-8, the difference between 1-4 and 5-8 isn't that big.

The big question is if the 1-4 favorites and the 5-8 favorites will be spread out or clustered together.

Nadal/Djokovic/Tsitsipas/Alcaraz being all in the same half is a possibility lol
That is exactly the issue this time. Also if only one of them is in the other half then that player has a pretty easy road to the final.
 

aldeayeah

G.O.A.T.
That is exactly the issue this time. Also if only one of them is in the other half then that player has a pretty easy road to the final.
The numbers are something like this (assuming that Djokodal and Alcipas are the favorites and that they'll be ranked 1-2, 3-4, 5-8 and 5-8):

- All 4 in the same half: 4.17%
- 2 in each half: 45.83%
- 3 in one half, 1 in the other: 50%

edit: fixed math
 
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Forgive Me Father

Hall of Fame
That is exactly the issue this time. Also if only one of them is in the other half then that player has a pretty easy road to the final.

That's the big one.

Nadal, Djokovic, Alcaraz, Tsitsipas are obviously the 4 best players on clay.

Their placement will IMO decide RG IF it's too one-sided (3 players in 1 half, the other "free" in the other).
 

Rattie

Legend
That's the big one.

Nadal, Djokovic, Alcaraz, Tsitsipas are obviously the 4 best players on clay.

Their placement will IMO decide RG IF it's too one-sided (3 players in 1 half, the other "free" in the other).
And should the one in the “free“ half happen to lose early, you can end up with a very lopsided, boring and poorly contested final. Hate it when that happens. Such a let down.
 

Forgive Me Father

Hall of Fame
And should the one in the “free“ half happen to lose early, you can end up with a very lopsided, boring and poorly contested final. Hate it when that happens. Such a let down.

I don't think that can really happen, tbh. If it does, then Zverev or Sinner would still do well to give a reasonable F.
 

aldeayeah

G.O.A.T.
I don't think that can really happen, tbh. If it does, then Zverev or Sinner would still do well to give a reasonable F.
Oh it can totally happen.

For example, let's assume Djokovic is #1, Medvedev #2, Zverev #3, Nadal #4, Tsitsipas #5, Alcaraz #6, Rublev #7, Berrettini #8

#1 Djokovic goes to top half, #2 Medvedev to bottom half. (100%)

#3/#4 are randomly assigned, one to each half. For this exercise, let's say #4 Nadal goes to the top half and #3 Zverev goes to the bottom half (50%)

#5/#6/#7/#8 are randomly assigned, two to each half. For this exercise, #5 Tsitsipas and #6 Alcaraz go to the top half, while #7 Rublev and #8 Berrettini go to the bottom half (4.17%)

Unlikely? Yes. Can happen? Yes.
 
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Forgive Me Father

Hall of Fame
Oh it can totally happen.

For example, let's assume Djokovic is #1, Medvedev #2, Zverev #3, Nadal #4, Tsitsipas #5, Alcaraz #6, Rublev #7, Berrettini #8

#1 Djokovic goes to top half, #2 Medvedev to bottom half. (100%)

#3/#4 are randomly assigned, one to each half. For this exercise, let's say #4 Nadal goes to the top half and #3 Zverev goes to the bottom half (50%)

#5/#6/#7/#8 are randomly assigned, two to each half. For this exercise, #5 Tsitsipas and #6 Alcaraz go to the top half, while #7 Rublev and #8 Berrettini go to the bottom half (4.17%)

Unlikely? Yes. Can happen? Yes.

I know it can mathematically happen. I'm saying with Zverev (or Sinner) there, he would make a solid Finalist.
 
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