Examining the Possibilities of the 2022 Roland Garros Draw

Nadal_King

Hall of Fame
Draw will be crazy , so many scenarios and all due top 2 contenders being potentially placed in 5-8 group which makes it so exciting
 

Nadal - GOAT

Hall of Fame
If a player is seeded 4, is it more likely that he will face a 5/6 seed in QF? Or is it equally possible for him to draw against a 7/8 seed?

Does anyone know this/ have emprical evidence?
 

aldeayeah

G.O.A.T.
That would be impossible to prove. Here are the last few GS draws with the top seeds in each quarter:

AO 2021: 1-6, 3-8, 4-7, 2-5
RG 2021: 1-8, 3-7, 4-6, 2-5
WB 2021: 1-5, 3-8, 4-7, 2-6
USO 2021: 1-6, 4-7, 3-5, 2-8
AO 2022: 1-7, 3-6, 4-8, 2-5

seems pretty random to me
 

Nadal - GOAT

Hall of Fame
That would be impossible to prove. Here are the last few GS draws with the top seeds in each quarter:

AO 2021: 1-6, 3-8, 4-7, 2-5
RG 2021: 1-8, 3-7, 4-6, 2-5
WB 2021: 1-5, 3-8, 4-7, 2-6
USO 2021: 1-6, 4-7, 3-5, 2-8
AO 2022: 1-7, 3-6, 4-8, 2-5

seems pretty random to me
Thanks.. it does seem random.
 

James P

G.O.A.T.
Nadal has to get one round further than Tsitsipas to retain #4 this week, otherwise he'll be #5 and crazy possibilities like a Djokovic-Nadal Quarterfinal are possible.
 

Nadal - GOAT

Hall of Fame
Nadal has to get one round further than Tsitsipas to retain #4 this week, otherwise he'll be #5 and crazy possibilities like a Djokovic-Nadal Quarterfinal are possible.
Correct. But I wonder if being 4 is better than being 4. As being 5 opens up the possibility of having Med and Zverev as potential QF/SF draw. Whereas being 4 means a possible QF with Tsitsipas/ Alcaraz.

I would even prefer a Nadal-Novak QF over a Nadal-Alcaraz one. As Nadal will be fresh and will have a good chance. But if he has to play Alcaraz in QF, even if he wins the match it may take too much out of him physically.
 

T007

Hall of Fame
Maybe.. the key is how is the draw divided. Rafa, Novak, Stef and Alcaraz are the top 4. The ideal situation would be Novak, Stef, Alcaraz in one half and Rafa in the other with Med, Zverev.

Being 5th seed may result in a better draw than 4th for Rafa.
Lol you want all 3 who can beat rafa to land in other half...which means you are not confident of rafa's chances if he ends up in Djoker alcaraz half
 

Nadal - GOAT

Hall of Fame
Lol you want all 3 who can beat rafa to land in other half...which means you are not confident of rafa's chances if he ends up in Djoker alcaraz half
You got to be realistic right. Ofcourse Rafa can win FO with Alcaraz and Novak in the same half. But it will be lot easier and more likely if he has to face them later.

After all he is 36 now.
 
D

Deleted member 629564

Guest
This will be huge.

We are pretty sure the seedings will look like this:
1-2 Djokovic Medvedev
3-4 Zverev Tsitsipas
5-6 Nadal Alcaraz
7-8 Rublev FAA

assuming no Medvedev withdrawal.

From an each of the Top8 perspective:

for Djokovic
Draw Of The Dreams
QF FAA/Rublev
SF Zverev/FAA/Rublev

Draw From The Hell
QF Alcaraz/Nadal
SF Tsitsipas/Alcaraz/Nadal


for Medvedev
Draw Of The Dreams
QF FAA/Rublev
SF Zverev/FAA/Rublev

Draw From The Hell
QF Alcaraz/Nadal
SF Tsitsipas/Alcaraz/Nadal


for Zverev
Draw Of The Dreams
QF FAA/Rublev
SF Medvedev/FAA/Rublev

Draw From The Hell
QF Alcaraz/Nadal
SF Djokovic/Alcaraz/Nadal


for Tsitsipas
Draw Of The Dreams
QF FAA/Rublev
SF Medvedev/FAA/Rublev

Draw From The Hell
QF Alcaraz/Nadal
SF Djokovic/Alcaraz/Nadal


for Nadal
Draw Of The Dreams
QF Medvedev
SF Zverev

Draw From The Hell
QF Djokovic/Tsitsipas
SF Djokovic/Alcaraz


for Alcaraz
Draw Of The Dreams
QF Medvedev
SF Zverev

Draw From The Hell
QF Djokovic/Tsitsipas
SF Djokovic/Nadal


for Rublev
Draw Of The Dreams
QF Medvedev
SF Zverev

Draw From The Hell
QF Djokovic/Alcaraz/Nadal
SF Djokovic/Alcaraz/Nadal


for FAA
Draw Of The Dreams
QF Medvedev
SF Zverev

Draw From The Hell
QF Djokovic/Alcaraz/Nadal
SF Djokovic/Alcaraz/Nadal
 
T

TheNachoMan

Guest
Nadal to get Rublev and Ruud while Novak gets Alcaraz and Zverev.
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Yeah, 50% chance Djokovic draws Tsitsipas, and 25% each of drawing Nadal/Alcaraz. 33% from there that the guy he faces in the SF draws the other.

In all likelihood, the draw won't have 2 of Djokovic/Tsitsipas/Nadal/Alcaraz in the same quarter and 3/4 of them in the same half. More likely is 2/4 in each half.
I think we're probably going to see QFs like
Djokovic v. Nadal/Alcaraz
Rublev v. Zverev
Tsitsipas v. FAA
Nadal/Alcaraz v. Medvedev

Like I expect there'll be some that benefit and some that lose, but I doubt the draw will seem like someone rigged it for one person to win in particular.
 

Pandaman

Semi-Pro
This will be huge.

We are pretty sure the seedings will look like this:
1-2 Djokovic Medvedev
3-4 Zverev Tsitsipas
5-6 Nadal Alcaraz
7-8 Rublev FAA

assuming no Medvedev withdrawal.

From an each of the Top8 perspective:

for Djokovic
Draw Of The Dreams
QF FAA/Rublev
SF Zverev/FAA/Rublev

Draw From The Hell
QF Alcaraz/Nadal
SF Tsitsipas/Alcaraz/Nadal


for Medvedev
Draw Of The Dreams
QF FAA/Rublev
SF Zverev/FAA/Rublev

Draw From The Hell
QF Alcaraz/Nadal
SF Tsitsipas/Alcaraz/Nadal


for Zverev
Draw Of The Dreams
QF FAA/Rublev
SF Medvedev/FAA/Rublev

Draw From The Hell
QF Alcaraz/Nadal
SF Djokovic/Alcaraz/Nadal


for Tsitsipas
Draw Of The Dreams
QF FAA/Rublev
SF Medvedev/FAA/Rublev

Draw From The Hell
QF Alcaraz/Nadal
SF Djokovic/Alcaraz/Nadal


for Nadal
Draw Of The Dreams
QF Medvedev
SF Zverev

Draw From The Hell
QF Djokovic/Tsitsipas
SF Djokovic/Alcaraz


for Alcaraz
Draw Of The Dreams
QF Medvedev
SF Zverev

Draw From The Hell
QF Djokovic/Tsitsipas
SF Djokovic/Nadal


for Rublev
Draw Of The Dreams
QF Medvedev
SF Zverev

Draw From The Hell
QF Djokovic/Alcaraz/Nadal
SF Djokovic/Alcaraz/Nadal


for FAA
Draw Of The Dreams
QF Medvedev
SF Zverev

Draw From The Hell
QF Djokovic/Alcaraz/Nadal
SF Djokovic/Alcaraz/Nadal
Gj. It's about time Novak gets some luck his way and Ralph have to fight through a really tough French draw. The fact that #1 can draw the highest seeds of the #5-#8 is the dumbest thing in tennis. What's the point of being #1 if you don't get lower ranked players? We want Ralph vs Novak in the final. Top 8-12 should be systemized to some degree.
 

weakera

Talk Tennis Guru
I just hope Novak will get Nadal in QF or SF... To prevent schedule games...

Amusing to see whining about scheduling games after Nadal and Djokovic played a Wimbledon semifinal and Roland Garros final under the roofs without any rain falling either time.
 

beard

Legend
Not sure that is possible now, wth the roof, and late night matches, everyone will finish their matches on time.
Yeah, but they just put Nadal to play as early as possible (even a day earlier if it's possible), and Novak last match that finishes after midnight... But yes, you are right, roof will prevent some ridiculous schedule we saw over years (always in Nadal's favour, each time literally, not only against Novak)...
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
Yeah, but they just put Nadal to play as early as possible (even a day earlier if it's possible), and Novak last match that finishes after midnight... But yes, you are right, roof will prevent some ridiculous schedule we saw over years (always in Nadal's favour, each time literally, not only against Novak)...

Even if Novak's match does go late, he will still get a full complete day's of rest on Saturday, if he has Nadal waiting in the final. It won't be too bad for him, because now at RG they are all certain of getting a day off between their matches.
 

GabeT

G.O.A.T.
Amusing to see whining about scheduling games after Nadal and Djokovic played a Wimbledon semifinal and Roland Garros final under the roofs without any rain falling either time.
The Excuse Brigade never sleeps. If it’s not a foot injury it’s a roof. Poor Nadal, can’t catch a break! :-D :cool:
 

weakera

Talk Tennis Guru
The Excuse Brigade never sleeps. If it’s not a foot injury it’s a roof. Poor Nadal, can’t catch a break! :-D :cool:

Why would he need an excuse for the demolition job in RG 2020 lol? It's just funny that they played indoors
 

beard

Legend
Even if Novak's match does go late, he will still get a full complete day's of rest on Saturday, if he has Nadal waiting in the final. It won't be too bad for him, because now at RG they are all certain of getting a day off between their matches.
I agree mostly, but on this level even small things can be decisive... Just look at Novak's latest slams loses... He mostly played grueling 5 setters, often as second SF...
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
I agree mostly, but on this level even small things can be decisive... Just look at Novak's latest slams loses... He mostly played grueling 5 setters, often as second SF...

Yes, I know Novak has had some losses that were most certainly impacted by the scheduling, but I don't think any really significant things can happen now, especially since we know all matches will be completed on the days played, due to the roof, and before the final, both players will have a day off, as they both play on the main court, and will use the roof if needed.

If RG was a week long event then yes, but since it is two weeks and days off, a guy like Novak, should be fine. For him it is about match fitness, and from the looks of it, he has gained a lot of it back.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
That must be why player results often change drastically depending on whether they play under a roof or not ;)

What examples are you thinking about? The two I am thinking about is Nadal beating Djokovic at RG under a roof and Djokovic beating him at WImbledon. What changed?
 

Forgive Me Father

Hall of Fame
Nadal is now locked 5-6, meaning:

1-2 Djokovic Medvedev
3-4 Zverev Tsitsipas
5-6 Nadal Alcaraz
7-8 Rublev FAA

assuming no Medvedev withdrawal.

From an each of the Top8 perspective:

for Djokovic
Draw Of The Dreams
QF FAA/Rublev
SF Zverev/FAA/Rublev
Draw From The Hell
QF Alcaraz/Nadal
SF Tsitsipas/Alcaraz/Nadal

for Medvedev
Draw Of The Dreams
QF FAA/Rublev
SF Zverev/FAA/Rublev
Draw From The Hell
QF Alcaraz/Nadal
SF Tsitsipas/Alcaraz/Nadal

for Zverev
Draw Of The Dreams
QF FAA/Rublev
SF Medvedev/FAA/Rublev
Draw From The Hell
QF Alcaraz/Nadal
SF Djokovic/Alcaraz/Nadal

for Tsitsipas
Draw Of The Dreams
QF FAA/Rublev
SF Medvedev/FAA/Rublev
Draw From The Hell
QF Alcaraz/Nadal
SF Djokovic/Alcaraz/Nadal

for Nadal
Draw Of The Dreams
QF Medvedev
SF Zverev
Draw From The Hell
QF Djokovic/Tsitsipas
SF Djokovic/Alcaraz

for Alcaraz
Draw Of The Dreams
QF Medvedev
SF Zverev
Draw From The Hell
QF Djokovic/Tsitsipas
SF Djokovic/Nadal

for Rublev
Draw Of The Dreams
QF Medvedev
SF Zverev
Draw From The Hell
QF Djokovic/Alcaraz/Nadal
SF Djokovic/Alcaraz/Nadal

for FAA
Draw Of The Dreams
QF Medvedev
SF Zverev
Draw From The Hell
QF Djokovic/Alcaraz/Nadal
SF Djokovic/Alcaraz/Nadal
 

Nadal - GOAT

Hall of Fame
Well now the top 8 are almost final unless anyone withdraws. (7/8 may interchange)
1. Novak
2. Med
3. Zed
4. Tsit
5. Nadal
6. Alcaraz
7. Rublev/Ruud
8. Ruud/Rublev

What would be the expected draw between them? Any guesses based on past draws?
 
Last edited:

Robert C

Rookie
Well now the top 8 are almost final unless anyone withdraws. (7/8 may interchange)
1. Novak
2. Med
3. Zed
4. Tsit
5. Nadal
6. Alcaraz
7. Rublev/Ruud
8. Ruud/Rublev

What would be the expected draw between them? Any guesses based on past draws?

Isn’t the main conclusion from this that Nadal and Alcaraz are less likely to meet? If you put Nadal in the draw then Alcaraz has 3 positions he could place in the draw and 2 of those are in the other half so only 33% chance of them being in the same half of the draw.
 
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