Expectations for Carlos Alcaraz in 2024

dking68

Legend
Slight edge to Alcaraz.
First half, aka first 6 months of the season - Both won a slam and a master's title each. Alcaraz went 2-0 in H2H, so its an edge to him.
You know Sinner is more likely to do better in this half, and yet he is still #1 in the race, right? I could see Sinner easily winning 2/3 masters, the ATP finals and possibly the USO.
 

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
You know Sinner is more likely to do better in this half, and yet he is still #1 in the race, right? I could see Sinner easily winning 2/3 masters, the ATP finals and possibly the USO.
Shut down your excessive dosage of optimism until Sinner does all that. Its getting nauseating at this point; you've been repeating the same stuff since the very beginning of this year.

Let me remind you, Sinner failed to win any of the 3 post-USO big trophies in the so called hottest streak of his. So, let the results arrive and speak before you propagate the exaggerated possibilities of everything.
 

dking68

Legend
Shut down your excessive dosage of optimism until Sinner does all that. Its getting nauseating at this point; you've been repeating the same stuff since the very beginning of this year.

Let me remind you, Sinner failed to win any of the 3 post-USO big trophies in the so called hottest streak of his. So, let the results arrive and speak before you propagate the exaggerated possibilities of everything.
I’m saying Sinner will do better than the Spaniard in this half, his game is better suited to hardcourts
 

NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
More 500s for sure in the first half.

More like all HC season except IW , also there are two slams on HC remember and your boy was trailing Sinner 1-2 at freaking RG lol. Pipe down excitement, Sinner will dominate majority of season and also slams , it's only a matter of time.
 

NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
Slight edge to Alcaraz.
First half, aka first 6 months of the season - Both won a slam and a master's title each. Alcaraz went 2-0 in H2H, so its an edge to him.

Sinner dominated the HC season and won a slam , there are two slams on HC and even on RG clay Sinner was leading 1-2, let's not pretend that it could have been easily 2-1 by now
 

NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
I’m saying Sinner will do better than the Spaniard in this half, his game is better suited to hardcourts

Stop underselling Sinner , son! Sinner is a tough match up for Carlos everywhere. Even on RG clay he was leading 2-1 and should have won and had he not suffered sickness against Medvedev we would have been talking about CYGS .
 

Kralingen

Bionic Poster
I’m saying Sinner will do better than the Spaniard in this half, his game is better suited to hardcourts
Only to low bouncing HCs, not on high bouncing HCs.
Sinner is obviously better on HC. I mean, is this some crazy take now?

Sinner is clearly better in quicker, lower bouncing HC conditions (aka the entire fall season) than Carlos. Carlos lost to freaking MEDVEDEV at USO 2023. He has earned zero benefit of the doubt after that. He will have to prove his worth at the USO after such a pathetic, unforgivable defeat. As far as I’m concerned, Sinner is the favourite for the USO. The Medvedev loss was simply horrendous.
 

AgassiSuperSlam11

Hall of Fame
Alcaraz hasn't won an indoor title yet and I believe the defeat he suffered to Meddy was with the roof closed. If the roof was closed in 2023 Wimbledon F he also would've lost to Djokovic. Meddy also played some of his best tennis in that match.
 

NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
Sinner is obviously better on HC. I mean, is this some crazy take now?

Sinner is clearly better in quicker, lower bouncing HC conditions (aka the entire fall season) than Carlos. Carlos lost to freaking MEDVEDEV at USO 2023. He has earned zero benefit of the doubt after that. He will have to prove his worth at the USO after such a pathetic, unforgivable defeat. As far as I’m concerned, Sinner is the favourite for the USO. The Medvedev loss was simply horrendous.

Finally someone telling it the way it is. Carlos has trouble hitting through his opponents ( on HC)if they're in good defensive mode and has a big serve e ( Z at AO, Med at USO , T paul on HC) his serve is a liability on HC and his return is hit or miss , his game becomes more error prone on HC . There's too many strategic and brain holes in his HC game. @Rafa4LifeEver read this.
 

dking68

Legend
He didn't dominate the HC season. No ifs and buts, Alcaraz won the last 2 sets without facing a break point at all. Deny that if you can.
Sinner won more total points and more return points, despite the loss, on his least favorable surface. You do know if they play at the USO, it won’t be close right? Especially if the roof is closed
 

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
Sinner won more total points and more return points, despite the loss, on his least favorable surface. You do know if they play at the USO, it won’t be close right? Especially if the roof is closed
Well, its not as if Sinner won 20+ more points, its 147 to 145. That was because Sinner had won 8 out of the first 10 games when Alcaraz was settling into the match; after which, they exchanged a set apiece & then the Spaniard upped his level in sets 4 & 5, when he was clearly the better player.
Set 1 - Sinner was clearly better
Sets 2 & 3 - both were about equal
Sets 4 & 5 - Alcaraz was clearly better

Additionally, Nowhere on the tour would this matchup ever be 'not close', pal; especially in BO5. Unless one of them falls off a cliff in terms of level and therefore rankings, I'd always expect them to play nail-biters, close encounters.

As @NeutralFan pointed out, I don't think a closed roof in such humid conditions would be a favourable situation for Sinner against Alcaraz, as the match would get more physical compared to an outdoors match; and at this stage, the Spaniard is considerably better at that.
 
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Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
Sinner is obviously better on HC. I mean, is this some crazy take now?

Sinner is clearly better in quicker, lower bouncing HC conditions (aka the entire fall season) than Carlos. Carlos lost to freaking MEDVEDEV at USO 2023. He has earned zero benefit of the doubt after that. He will have to prove his worth at the USO after such a pathetic, unforgivable defeat. As far as I’m concerned, Sinner is the favourite for the USO. The Medvedev loss was simply horrendous.
Sinner is better on low bouncing HCs for sure. I don't contest that. On high bouncing HCs, I don't agree about Sinner being better there.

Talking of USO; yes Alcaraz did lose to Medvedev in a match where his tactics were all over the place while the big Russian played one of his top 3 matches on HC, ever. Sinner himself didn't do that well at USO, remember? He lost to a struggling Zverev in 5 sets.
 

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
Finally someone telling it the way it is. Carlos has trouble hitting through his opponents ( on HC)if they're in good defensive mode and has a big serve e ( Z at AO, Med at USO , T paul on HC) his serve is a liability on HC and his return is hit or miss , his game becomes more error prone on HC . There's too many strategic and brain holes in his HC game. @Rafa4LifeEver read this.
Man this is exactly what I've been saying since last 2 years or so. Alcaraz doesn't play smart tennis when he is up against big hitters (well, most of the times). He tries to outhit them in central, mid-court rallies; which is suicidal. Additionally, hitting kick serves which land right into the strike zone of tall Zverev or Medvedev or Jarry is also suicidal. He needs to utilise the full width of the court by streching them from corner to corner with acute, albeit short angles; slices, sliding serves etc.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
1. Does Carlitos win at least one major in 2024?
Yes. He played 1 QF in 2021. 1 QF and 1 title in 2022 and 2 SF and 1 title in 2023.
His win ratio went from 66% in 2021 to 84% in 2022 to 89.5% in 2023 in grand slams. This guy is going to dominate tennis next year. I think 1 or 2 slams for him if Nole wins at least 1, and maybe even 3 if Nole doesn't win anything. He is above the rest.

2. Will his rivalries against Medvedev and Sinner begin to play bigger roles at the majors?
I think he has already solved Medvedev. He is just so young that sometimes he had lack of focus like in the tiebreak vs Medvedev in USOpen because he looked great in before TB. Then things went south very fast. But looking at his performance in Wimbledon, he has figured out Medvedev completely. I think next year he will dominate Medvedev just like Novak dominates him. Novak has won 5 of the last 6 matches vs Medvedev.
Now vs Sinner, its different. Both are same age, and Alcaraz has some more time to be physically at his peak. But Sinner too. I think Next year he might trade wins vs Sinner but in important matches (finals) I think Alcaraz will prevail.

3. How many M1000s will he win in 2024?
This is not possible to accurately guess but I will give it a try. Alcaraz is having great chances at IW (slow hc), Madrid. I think in Miami too. But he is contender at each of the masters. The easiest of these for him might be Rome, MC, Rogers cup. I think he wins 3 masters next year, possibly 2 if he loses many close matches.

All of these only if he is physically fit for entire year. He skipped AO this year, so we know till now he has been fragile. So we have to keep that in mind too.
This is pretty good prediction in hindsight.
 

Lleytonstation

Talk Tennis Guru
1. Does Carlitos win at least one major in 2024?
Yes. He played 1 QF in 2021. 1 QF and 1 title in 2022 and 2 SF and 1 title in 2023.
His win ratio went from 66% in 2021 to 84% in 2022 to 89.5% in 2023 in grand slams. This guy is going to dominate tennis next year. I think 1 or 2 slams for him if Nole wins at least 1, and maybe even 3 if Nole doesn't win anything. He is above the rest.

2. Will his rivalries against Medvedev and Sinner begin to play bigger roles at the majors?
I think he has already solved Medvedev. He is just so young that sometimes he had lack of focus like in the tiebreak vs Medvedev in USOpen because he looked great in before TB. Then things went south very fast. But looking at his performance in Wimbledon, he has figured out Medvedev completely. I think next year he will dominate Medvedev just like Novak dominates him. Novak has won 5 of the last 6 matches vs Medvedev.
Now vs Sinner, its different. Both are same age, and Alcaraz has some more time to be physically at his peak. But Sinner too. I think Next year he might trade wins vs Sinner but in important matches (finals) I think Alcaraz will prevail.

3. How many M1000s will he win in 2024?
This is not possible to accurately guess but I will give it a try. Alcaraz is having great chances at IW (slow hc), Madrid. I think in Miami too. But he is contender at each of the masters. The easiest of these for him might be Rome, MC, Rogers cup. I think he wins 3 masters next year, possibly 2 if he loses many close matches.

All of these only if he is physically fit for entire year. He skipped AO this year, so we know till now he has been fragile. So we have to keep that in mind too.
Spot on.
 

NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
Shut down your excessive dosage of optimism until Sinner does all that. Its getting nauseating at this point; you've been repeating the same stuff since the very beginning of this year.

Let me remind you, Sinner failed to win any of the 3 post-USO big trophies in the so called hottest streak of his. So, let the results arrive and speak before you propagate the exaggerated possibilities of everything.

Naah, you need a reality check
 

NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
I think his chances at Wimbledon are great since he sailed through the draw easily and he spends very little energy there. on hC his game he needs to learn point construction, on clay it requires the same , can't go all out on all shots and hit through opponents in every matches.

Called it long ago about his HC game but fanboys didn't listen to me
 

TheSlicer

Hall of Fame
Turns out he lost the 2 matches to Alcaraz and only managed to equal his slam tally this year after all.
In Alcaraz worst year, missing the whole Clay season and playing the least number of matches since he is on tour, but hey, sinner is gonna do CYGS Next year without a doubt, Carlos got no chance, as he already reached his peak and now hes just declining at 21 years old.
 

FeroBango

Legend
In Alcaraz worst year, missing the whole Clay season and playing the least number of matches since he is on tour, but hey, sinner is gonna do CYGS Next year without a doubt, Carlos got no chance, as he already reached his peak and now hes just declining at 21 years old.
Sinner will reach his peak version at 43 because even at this AO he was a college level player at best.
 

Aussie Darcy

Bionic Poster
@TheSlicer see I am a Carlos fan
Just because you posted the words “as an Alcaraz fan” doesn’t make it true. Especially when you then proceeded to embarrass yourself by saying he’d be lucky to win one slam and Sinner would dominate him. How did that go hey?

How many slams for Alcaraz this year again? And did he beat Sinner en route to one of them? Yes? No?

Embarrassing. We know where your loyalties lie. You’ve bullied Alcaraz for so long now.
 

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
He beat Meddy who beat Carlos last year and even in this weak field Carlos is struggling in HC slams
Carlos has been playing crap tennis tennis on both HC & clay this season except for 2 weeks. So yeah he's struggling.
And no, Sinner didn't beat Meddy who beat Carlos last year; that was Medvedev outshining his 2021 levels. Sinner beat Meddy who made 55 UFEs in a short match, and yet could've taken it to a 5th.
 

NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
Carlos has been playing crap tennis tennis on both HC & clay this season except for 2 weeks. So yeah he's struggling.
And no, Sinner didn't beat Meddy who beat Carlos last year; that was Medvedev outshining his 2021 levels. Sinner beat Meddy who made 55 UFEs in a short match, and yet could've taken it to a 5th.

Muh level !! It's down if your player beat him . Thing is Carlos has stagnated on HC ,don't know why fanboys like you're having hard problem admitting that? Will you wake up when Sinner wins AO? And Carlos gets early exit again?
 

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
Muh level !! It's down if your player beat him . Thing is Carlos has stagnated on HC ,don't know why fanboys like you're having hard problem admitting that? Will you wake up when Sinner wins AO? And Carlos gets early exit again?
Who's denying that he's regressed this season on HC? All I'm saying is he didn't JUST decline on HC, he's had a rough year over-all outside of 2-3 weeks.
And doper Sinner would never earn any respect.
 

NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
Who's denying that he's regressed this season on HC? All I'm saying is he didn't JUST decline on HC, he's had a rough year over-all outside of 2-3 weeks.
And doper Sinner would never earn any respect.

So your best argument is doper Sinner won't earn your respect? Cold assaisn couldn't care less about what you think. True, he has regressed everywhere or let's say didn't improve, only thing is his game gets exposed on HC more . His lack of point construction, low percentage, shot selection etc gets more exposed on HC.
 

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
So your best argument is doper Sinner won't earn your respect? Cold assaisn couldn't care less about what you think. True, he has regressed everywhere or let's say didn't improve, only thing is his game gets exposed on HC more . His lack of point construction, low percentage, shot selection etc gets more exposed on HC.
Yeah he'd not care about what I (a critic) think, but tbh neither does he care about what you (a non fan) or @dking68 (a devoted fan) think. So that's a moot point.

And no, Carlos didn't stagnate, he plain out regressed; except for 2-3 tournaments, he didn't play good tennis at all. Like, AT ALL. Perhaps that has to do with the elbow injury flaring up again and again which made him doubt himself, so he decided to play care free only for slams; but it can be something completely different which I've got no idea about. The issue of point construction & poor shot selection was present, even in 2022-23 (except for the 2 weeks of grass court tennis where his court craft jumped up several notches), but he got away with it more often than not by purely brutforcing his way through the opponents as he took some mean swings. He does not do that anymore, perhaps he's figuring out something entirely new, we'd have to wait and see it happen.
 

ChaelAZ

G.O.A.T.
Been such a solid year for Alcaraz to this point. Everything to end the season will be icing on a tall cake. Good improvements in serve, and then in shot tolerance and selection of defense/neutral/offense. Still some work to do to create a front-runner mentality, but that continues to build as well.
 

FeroBango

Legend
Been such a solid year for Alcaraz to this point. Everything to end the season will be icing on a tall cake. Good improvements in serve, and then in shot tolerance and selection of defense/neutral/offense. Still some work to do to create a front-runner mentality, but that continues to build as well.
The forehand in full flight was reserved for the slams it seems this year. The elbow/forearm s a concern. I believe a healthy Alcaraz next year would be much better than this year's variant.
 

ChaelAZ

G.O.A.T.
The forehand in full flight was reserved for the slams it seems this year. The elbow/forearm s a concern. I believe a healthy Alcaraz next year would be much better than this year's variant.

I think part of learning to build points is also learning when to use physicality. That will help preserve overuse effects and look more toward longevity for sure.
 
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