1. Does Carlitos win at least one major in 2024?
Yes. He played 1 QF in 2021. 1 QF and 1 title in 2022 and 2 SF and 1 title in 2023.
His win ratio went from 66% in 2021 to 84% in 2022 to 89.5% in 2023 in grand slams. This guy is going to dominate tennis next year. I think 1 or 2 slams for him if Nole wins at least 1, and maybe even 3 if Nole doesn't win anything. He is above the rest.
2. Will his rivalries against Medvedev and Sinner begin to play bigger roles at the majors?
I think he has already solved Medvedev. He is just so young that sometimes he had lack of focus like in the tiebreak vs Medvedev in USOpen because he looked great in before TB. Then things went south very fast. But looking at his performance in Wimbledon, he has figured out Medvedev completely. I think next year he will dominate Medvedev just like Novak dominates him. Novak has won 5 of the last 6 matches vs Medvedev.
Now vs Sinner, its different. Both are same age, and Alcaraz has some more time to be physically at his peak. But Sinner too. I think Next year he might trade wins vs Sinner but in important matches (finals) I think Alcaraz will prevail.
3. How many M1000s will he win in 2024?
This is not possible to accurately guess but I will give it a try. Alcaraz is having great chances at IW (slow hc), Madrid. I think in Miami too. But he is contender at each of the masters. The easiest of these for him might be Rome, MC, Rogers cup. I think he wins 3 masters next year, possibly 2 if he loses many close matches.
All of these only if he is physically fit for entire year. He skipped AO this year, so we know till now he has been fragile. So we have to keep that in mind too.