Favorite for the Australian Open 2025 (men's singles)?

Favorite for the men's title at AO 2025?

  • Total voters
    55
  • Poll closed .
Aabye5

Aabye5

Talk Tennis Guru
Novak Djokovic is almost as synonymous with winning in Melbourne as Rafa Nadal was to winning on Philippe-Chartier.

However, this year marked a turning point for Nole, as he not only lost to Jannik Sinner in four sets in the 2024 AO semifinal, but he also only reached one final at the majors, bringing an end to the incredible streak of 21 years with at least one of the Big 3 picking up a title.

Jannik Sinner would go on to capture the crown in Australian and take complete control of the Tour for the rest of the year, picking up a second major in New York and ending the year with a dominant 73-6 win record.

Carlos Alcaraz has proven a thorn in the side of both Djokovic and Sinner in 2024, and claimed the Channel Slam (RG-W double) by defeating Djokovic on the way. He won the three official matches he played against rival Sinner, all in three sets.

So, does the legendary Djokovic retain the role of favorite, or does the success of the youngsters finally knock him from his perch?
 
Novak.

Because he hasn't played tennis since mid-October and has enough time to rest and prepare for the new season (he didn't have that luxury at the end of last year, and after only 25 days of rest and preparation he went to Australia). It has already been heard from certain circles that he is preparing for the new season as much as possible and that motivation is at a high level. He will chase a new Slam title like he chased gold this year and I simply don't see who can beat such a focused, ready and motivated Novak.
 
The fact that at the time I am writing this comment Djokovic has received the same votes as Sinner does nothing but delegitimize the credibility of the many polls won by Djokovic in this forum, ergo, evidently there are too many fans of the Serbian to distort the polls, otherwise it cannot be explained how today, with a view to the next Australian Open, the Serbian could have the same preferences as a Sinner.
 
Winner Sinner said:
The fact that at the time I am writing this comment Djokovic has received the same votes as Sinner does nothing but delegitimize the credibility of the many polls won by Djokovic in this forum, ergo, evidently there are too many fans of the Serbian to distort the polls, otherwise it cannot be explained how today, with a view to the next Australian Open, the Serbian could have the same preferences as a Sinner.
Click to expand...

In fairness, Novak has won the event 10 times.
 
Sinner is the favourite, despite Djokovic's 10 Australian Open titles. Djokovic's age, i.e. 37, works against him, and the fact that Sinner beat him there last year, and the fact that Sinner ended 2024 on a winning streak.

Still, there's no reason why Sinner can't be defeated. Alcaraz should be very motivated to stop him, and Djokovic, and Zverev, and Medvedev, and others.
 
ChrisJR3264 said:
I’m not writing medvedev off.
Made the final with a bum shoulder and was up 2-0 in the final after being on court for 24 hours heading into the finals with 3 late 2-4am matches.

Wondering what changes he makes going into the offseason
Click to expand...

Yeah, Med is definitely still in the mix, but not having a win in Australia, and not having won a major since 2021, it's hard to put him as the favorite. Plus, his records against Sinner/Alcaraz/Djokovic are not so great recently.
 
Last edited:
Sinner is the favorite. What is the % chance of him winning vs the field winning? I would say 70% Sinner, 15% Djokovic, 12% Alcaraz, 3% everyone else.
 
socallefty said:
Sinner is the favorite. What is the % chance of him winning vs the field winning? I would say 70% Sinner, 15% Djokovic, 12% Alcaraz, 3% everyone else.
Click to expand...
That's way too much.

This is just momentum talking nothing else. Almost no one in history has 70% win chances vs field , maybe Nadal at rg and Djokovic during 2015-16 for a slam or two.

Real chance would be sinner 35% Alcaraz Djokovic 20% each. Something like this.
 
Winner Sinner said:
The fact that at the time I am writing this comment Djokovic has received the same votes as Sinner does nothing but delegitimize the credibility of the many polls won by Djokovic in this forum, ergo, evidently there are too many fans of the Serbian to distort the polls, otherwise it cannot be explained how today, with a view to the next Australian Open, the Serbian could have the same preferences as a Sinner.
Click to expand...
The current number of 4 votes is low. The trick is that even a 37-year-old Novak is better than a 23-year-old Sinner when he is motivated and ready to fight. It is also bad that Alcaraz has 0 votes, because he is also the favorite against Sinner on AO. It seems that the victory over Fritz, De Minaur, Medvedev, Ruud, Baez, Griekspoor has clouded people's minds too much and they cannot rationally see the situation around AO, which is obvious, Alcaraz and Novak have more chances to beat Sinner at AO than he does them.
 
zakopinjo said:
The current number of 4 votes is low. The trick is that even a 37-year-old Novak is better than a 23-year-old Sinner when he is motivated and ready to fight. It is also bad that Alcaraz has 0 votes, because he is also the favorite against Sinner on AO. It seems that the victory over Fritz, De Minaur, Medvedev, Ruud, Baez, Griekspoor has clouded people's minds too much and they cannot rationally see the situation around AO, which is obvious, Alcaraz and Novak have more chances to beat Sinner at AO than he does them.
Click to expand...
When Alcaraz wins a major, the hype goes overboard for him too. At the moment, it's all Sinner, Sinner, Sinner, but just a few months back he was seen as small compared to Alcaraz, and Sinner being world number 1 was seen as not reflecting the real situation.
 
Aabye5 said:
Yeah, Med is definitely still in the mix, but not having a win in Australia, and not having won a major since 2021, it's hard to put him as the favorite. Plus, his records against Sinner/Alcaraz/Djokovic is not so great recently.
Click to expand...
Maybe I misread. Definitely not the favorite going in. But wouldn’t be shocked if he adjusts his game a bit. Gets healthy. And wins the open. He needs to channel that inner confidence he had from 2019-early 2022 where he was just so tough to beat. He hits a heavy ball just needs to stop thinking so much and go for it a bit more.
 
Mustard said:
Sinner is the favourite, despite Djokovic's 10 Australian Open titles. Djokovic's age, i.e. 37, works against him, and the fact that Sinner beat him there last year, and the fact that Sinner ended 2024 on a winning streak.

Still, there's no reason why Sinner can't be defeated. Alcaraz should be very motivated to stop him, and Djokovic, and Zverev, and Medvedev, and others.
Click to expand...
This would be a good time for Big Z to finally snag a Major.
 
Here are the odds of winning 2025 AO, IMHO:

Sinner 35%
Djokovic 25%
Med 12%
Alcaraz 10%
Zverev 8%
Fritz 8%
Rest of field 2%

Like Fed in 2017, Djoker will come back strong a year after having his meniscus repaired. The problem is that he will have stronger competition than Fed did in 2017. But he still might prevail anyway. Never write off Nole. That said, I still have Sinner as the favorite. Sinner recently hit a new level, which is tough to ignore.

I’m pulling for Alcaraz to win it all. I’ve love to see him get the record for winning the career slam at the youngest age.
 
Aabye5 said:
In fairness, Novak has won the event 10 times.
Click to expand...
No this is not honesty but it is a distortion of current reality.
With this reasoning, on the eve of the last Roland Garros, Nadal could have been considered the favorite because he won that tournament 14 times, deliberately ignoring the succession of events that preceded the last Roland Garros.

To date there is no reason to put Djokovic on the same level as Sinner as favorite for the next Australian Open.
And luckily my comment was not in vain since by chance we went from 4 votes each for Sinner and Djokovic to 18 to 3 for Sinner at the time I am writing this comment (so one has also changed his vote).
 
Aabye5 said:
Novak Djokovic is almost as synonymous with winning in Melbourne as Rafa Nadal was to winning on Philippe-Chartier.

However, this year marked a turning point for Nole, as he not only lost to Jannik Sinner in four sets in the 2024 AO semifinal, but he also only reached one final at the majors, bringing an end to the incredible streak of 21 years with at least one of the Big 3 picking up a title.

Jannik Sinner would go on to capture the crown in Australian and take complete control of the Tour for the rest of the year, picking up a second major in New York and ending the year with a dominant 73-6 win record.

Carlos Alcaraz has proven a thorn in the side of both Djokovic and Sinner in 2024, and claimed the Channel Slam (RG-W double) by defeating Djokovic on the way. He won the three official matches he played against rival Sinner, all in three sets.

So, does the legendary Djokovic retain the role of favorite, or does the success of the youngsters finally knock him from his perch?
Click to expand...
Alcaraz almost guaranteed if fit.
 
Winner Sinner said:
No this is not honesty but it is a distortion of current reality.
With this reasoning, on the eve of the last Roland Garros, Nadal could have been considered the favorite because he won that tournament 14 times, deliberately ignoring the succession of events that preceded the last Roland Garros.

To date there is no reason to put Djokovic on the same level as Sinner as favorite for the next Australian Open.
And luckily my comment was not in vain since by chance we went from 4 votes each for Sinner and Djokovic to 18 to 3 for Sinner at the time I am writing this comment (so one has also changed his vote).
Click to expand...

No, this is more like the 2022 Roland Garros. Novak beat Rafa in 2021, but Rafa got his revenge the next year.

Sinner has beaten Novak once in Melbourne. He definitely has the advantage, but it's not a open and shut case.
 
Winner Sinner said:
No this is not honesty but it is a distortion of current reality.
With this reasoning, on the eve of the last Roland Garros, Nadal could have been considered the favorite because he won that tournament 14 times, deliberately ignoring the succession of events that preceded the last Roland Garros.

To date there is no reason to put Djokovic on the same level as Sinner as favorite for the next Australian Open.
And luckily my comment was not in vain since by chance we went from 4 votes each for Sinner and Djokovic to 18 to 3 for Sinner at the time I am writing this comment (so one has also changed his vote).
Click to expand...
Djokovic isnt a contender lets be brutally honest. He was a total non factor at the slams this season really, ok he made AO SF and W final but he got humiliated in both matches and although he won the Olympics that was best of 3 sets and he was dead on his feet after 2 sets, so however you look at it at slam level he just is finished. Father time always wins.
I hope Novak is realistic. I really do like Novak, and i want him to enjoy his remaining time on tour as once its over its over. If though he thinks he can win slams still, the end of his career is going to be tragic for him and mentally scarring. He needs to be like Connors in 1992 at USO, and just accept where he is at now, i.e huge underdog. I remember Connors getting utterly humiliated at USO by Courier, but Connors never positioned himself as a contender he was just loving the ride. Thats what Djokovic has to do now at this stage of his career.
 
Aabye5 said:
No, this is more like the 2022 Roland Garros. Novak beat Rafa in 2021, but Rafa got his revenge the next year.

Sinner has beaten Novak once in Melbourne. He definitely has the advantage, but it's not a open and shut case.
Click to expand...
Beating everyone mowing down in his path right .
 
Winner Sinner said:
No this is not honesty but it is a distortion of current reality.
With this reasoning, on the eve of the last Roland Garros, Nadal could have been considered the favorite because he won that tournament 14 times, deliberately ignoring the succession of events that preceded the last Roland Garros.

To date there is no reason to put Djokovic on the same level as Sinner as favorite for the next Australian Open.
And luckily my comment was not in vain since by chance we went from 4 votes each for Sinner and Djokovic to 18 to 3 for Sinner at the time I am writing this comment (so one has also changed his vote).
Click to expand...
Thank you, Mister Spock.

#Mmm..
 
Pheasant said:
Here are the odds of winning 2025 AO, IMHO:

Sinner 35%
Djokovic 25%
Med 12%
Alcaraz 10%
Zverev 8%
Fritz 8%
Rest of field 2%

Like Fed in 2017, Djoker will come back strong a year after having his meniscus repaired. The problem is that he will have stronger competition than Fed did in 2017. But he still might prevail anyway. Never write off Nole. That said, I still have Sinner as the favorite. Sinner recently hit a new level, which is tough to ignore.

I’m pulling for Alcaraz to win it all. I’ve love to see him get the record for winning the career slam at the youngest age.
Click to expand...
Think you’re overrating Djokovic here. He didn’t win a single title on hard court this year. First time since what was essentially his debut season in 2005, I believe. And it wasn’t the meniscus that stopped him – all his hard court tournaments were well before and well after the meniscus surgery.

I mean, I’m not saying he can’t win, but I struggle to see him getting through either Sinner or Alcaraz in a best-of-five match these days. And I struggle to see who on earth could take down Sinner before Novak runs into him.
 
Sinner is the overwhelming favourite for me. He is so much better than anyone else in the particular Melbourne conditions and surface that it would take something momentous for him to be troubled.

Sinner has a great advantage each year in that the season starts with a major in conditions that are theoretically his strongest (even more so than US Open possibly) and Alcaraz’s weakest. They way Sinner coped with the pressure and expectation last year was masterful. Haven’t seen someone cruise through the early rounds of AO that effortlessly since Federer tore the AO to shreds in the 2000 decade.

The thing that makes this upcoming AO so intriguing is that time and time again Alcaraz keeps finding ways to surprise us. Whenever we think we’ve got him pigeonholed, he breaks out of whatever expectation we have set for him. One year he will eventually do this at AO despite the conditions not suiting his game at all.
 
Winner Sinner said:
No this is not honesty but it is a distortion of current reality.
With this reasoning, on the eve of the last Roland Garros, Nadal could have been considered the favorite because he won that tournament 14 times, deliberately ignoring the succession of events that preceded the last Roland Garros.

To date there is no reason to put Djokovic on the same level as Sinner as favorite for the next Australian Open.
And luckily my comment was not in vain since by chance we went from 4 votes each for Sinner and Djokovic to 18 to 3 for Sinner at the time I am writing this comment (so one has also changed his vote).
Click to expand...
Due to his physical condition, Nadal could not be among the favorites at the RG.

Novak has no physical problems, only the lack of motivation is holding him back in 2024. If he returns his motivation to the maximum level, he is always the favorite in match.
 
Hilarious seeing The Oracle speak about how Djokovic has no chance to win slams, when failed prediction after failed prediction about how Nadal could win slams in 2024, and even have a shot at RG 2025 didn't take into account how badly he was getting hammered everywhere. Some desperate wishful thinking here.
 
Sinner is the favourite.
I've got semi finals tickets and have fingers crossed I will be watching Alcaraz vs. Sinner. Previously when I've had finals tix for the AO, the matches have been disappointing: Berdych vs. Wawrinka and Raonic vs. Murray. It would be sickening if I got Zverev vs. Medvedev this time around lol.
 
McGradey said:
Sinner is the favourite.
I've got semi finals tickets and have fingers crossed I will be watching Alcaraz vs. Sinner. Previously when I've had finals tix for the AO, the matches have been disappointing: Berdych vs. Wawrinka and Raonic vs. Murray. It would be sickening if I got Zverev vs. Medvedev this time around lol.
Click to expand...
The semi-final of the 2024 edition between the two of them was one of the most exciting matches of all of 2024.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Megafanoftennis100
  • Poll Poll
The 2024 AO men's singles final prediction - Sinner vs Medvedev
Replies
1
Views
581
BumElbow
B
Megafanoftennis100
  • Poll Poll
Will Jannik Sinner end up winning 40+ Grand Slam Singles titles?
Replies
25
Views
2K
gamelovergold
G
edberg volleys
Australian Open: Carlos Alcaraz targets career Grand Slam in 2025 after 'year of ups and downs' - 'I want more'
Replies
44
Views
2K
Hitman
Hitman
dking68
14 burning questions for the 2024 season
2
Replies
82
Views
5K
Aabye5
Aabye5
Megafanoftennis100
  • Poll Poll
In which year was the tennis field the weakest, 2006, 2010 or 2024?
Replies
39
Views
2K
DSH
DSH
Back
Top