If there were tiebreaks, there would be no doubt in my mind fed would win, as he usually holds his serve far more comfortably than Nadal. But with no tiebreaks and no break chances in sight, I have a lot of doubt in fed.
Fed must attack from the baseline to win this match. He cannot afford to sit back and hope Rafa misses. That won't happen. The first break will be the back breaker.