Fedalistas, The Zedbot Cometh (Zverev)

[Meles]

Ferrero's revenge is upon you.

In short Zverev's mighty 2nd serve points won on clay are translating to hard courts on both serves:

To put a finer point on it when Zverev won Montpellier dominating Tsonga and Gasquet along the way he only won 49.1% of his 2nd serve points. This week the 2nd serve number is 61.4%. Compared to 2016 this is a monumental 10% jump to 74.3% serve points won from 64.2%. (Nishikori, Medvedev, and Thompson all return 2nd serves very well.)

Statistically the Zverev return numbers have been creeping up beyond my forecasts and expectations on all surfaces.

Pretty much statistically the Zedbot is half Roddick (serve)/half Sampras (return). ********* is going to need to come up with some new magic tricks to deal with Zverev. Nadal 2013 USOpen probably not good enough. If Zverev were to retain anywhere near these numbers ongoing pretty much book him for GOAT. Zverev likely will be number 1 by sometime in 2018 given Fed's light schedule.

Visually it looks like Ferrero has already improved the Zverev forehand a bit. With so much room for improvement in the forecourt, Zverev's potential is staggering.

@Gary Duane @falstaff78 @veroniquem @Chanwan

We may see a bit of a statistical feedback loop on Zed's serve. His much more efficient serve game is going to allow him to go a lot deeper and more efficiently in tournaments. Zverev will complete the fifth year of his Jez Green five year training program by the end of 2018. A fresher, more efficient Zverev is going to jump in all stats. The combination of height and early stamina should be a lethal one and allow him to break through early on the slam front, plus perhaps an unprecedented jump in the stats.

 

[NBP]

STAGGERING STATS YET AGAIN MELES. He'll end the year #3, and be #1 by the end of 2018, if not 2019. I expect him to at least reach the final in Montreal.

 

[Waspsting]

********* is going to need to come up with some new magic tricks to deal with Zverev.

I agree

He might need to get a good night's sleep, on top of just showing up

---

Always enjoy your posts, btw - the info, the enthusiasm and the not taking of self too seriously. Respect

And yes, I think Zverev's the future... but not yet.

 

[tennisaddict]

YAWN !!

'How many times this ' ? In jerzy's style

 

[Thundergod]

I know this thread looks like a joke, but if at least one of the Big 4 plays well next year, then Zverev would probably need 10k points at the very least. Right now, the #1 point total has been the lowest it's been in a while (due to Fedal having no points after Wimbledon) and that's still near 8k points. I think Ferrer with about 7.2k points is the highest a non Big 4 member has gotten in a while(unless Stan had more), so I don't see Zverev getting 10k+.

Maybe the Big 4 will all retire/get injured next year and he'll only need like 6k.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Ferrero's revenge is upon you.

No revenge at all, I always liked JCF's game (except when he beat Agassi) and he's already improved Sasha's game without a doubt. But let's wait until Z faces a great player in a big match. He'll have that opportunity next week if he meets Rafa in the semis. I personally think he will flame out and not make the semis. He'll win Washington and not be physically able to bounce back in Montreal. Hope he does, though!

Meles, he's the coming guy but these histrionics about him being #1 next year is just too much hyperbole.

 

[Sirius Black]

Ok. I like Zverev

 

[Red Rick]

Meles predicted the sun would go up.

That means armegeddon commences this very night.

 

[Meles]

I know this thread looks like a joke, but if at least one of the Big 4 plays well next year, then Zverev would probably need 10k points at the very least. Right now, the #1 point total has been the lowest it's been in a while (due to Fedal having no points after Wimbledon) and that's still near 8k points. I think Ferrer with about 7.2k points is the highest a non Big 4 member has gotten in a while(unless Stan had more), so I don't see Zverev getting 10k+.

Maybe the Big 4 will all retire/get injured next year and he'll only need like 6k.

Right now Zedbot will be 4th in the race ahead of Wawrinka should he banish his fellow servebot Kevin Anderson in the Washington final. KA is no joke and back in top 10 form so far from confident without the stats. Head to head looks great for this match:
19/2017 R64 Rome Masters Clay Alexander Zverev Kevin Anderson 6-4 4-6 6-4 1.40 - 2.88
32/2015 R32 Washington Hard Alexander Zverev Kevin Anderson 2-6 6-3 6-4 4.20 - 1.21

A much lesser Zverev beat prime Anderson in 2015.

At the rate he's going Zverev could easily hit 5000 points or more by end of 2017.

Zverev owns Djokovic and Wawrinka. The only big 5 player with Zverev's number is Murray. Zverev will be top 4 by the end of the season and with those favorable draws it will be a long time before he's pushed out from the top of the game. This Washington to Montreal run will be a good test as Zverev has a very workable draw next week. Just how much of an immediate threat he presents will be known all too soon.

 

[West Coast Ace]

Fed - Zverev is the Final we should hope for at the USO...

 

[TheGhostOfAgassi]

Zverev with big potential on all 3 surfaces.
No many like that. And the stronger he gets the better he will be in the slams too.

 

[Sysyphus]

did he beat a top 50 player at the slams yet?

 

[Red Rick]

did he beat a top 50 player at the slams yet?

Don't need to reach Slam QFs to become GOAT in the Meles era.

 

[Sysyphus]

Don't need to reach Slam QFs to become GOAT in the Meles era.

Meles' formula: The less you have achieved, the stronger proof that you're juuust about to dominate.


But in all seriousness, Zverev is a pretty talented player. Will beat top 50 players at the slams soon.

 

[Mainad]

Zverev owns Djokovic and Wawrinka. The only big 5 player with Zverev's number is Murray. Zverev will be top 4 by the end of the season and with those favorable draws it will be a long time before he's pushed out from the top of the game. This Washington to Montreal run will be a good test as Zverev has a very workable draw next week. Just how much of an immediate threat he presents will be known all too soon.

Nadal too (3-0 vs Z and 2-0 this year) and probably Fed (2-1 vs Z and crushed him in the Halle final a few weeks ago).

 

[Thundergod]

Right now Zedbot will be 4th in the race ahead of Wawrinka should he banish his fellow servebot Kevin Anderson in the Washington final. KA is no joke and back in top 10 form so far from confident without the stats. Head to head looks great for this match:
19/2017 R64 Rome Masters Clay Alexander Zverev Kevin Anderson 6-4 4-6 6-4 1.40 - 2.88
32/2015 R32 Washington Hard Alexander Zverev Kevin Anderson 2-6 6-3 6-4 4.20 - 1.21

A much lesser Zverev beat prime Anderson in 2015.

At the rate he's going Zverev could easily hit 5000 points or more by end of 2017.

Zverev owns Djokovic and Wawrinka. The only big 5 player with Zverev's number is Murray. Zverev will be top 4 by the end of the season and with those favorable draws it will be a long time before he's pushed out from the top of the game. This Washington to Montreal run will be a good test as Zverev has a very workable draw next week. Just how much of an immediate threat he presents will be known all too soon.

Lol being 1-0 against Djokovic in his worst year is not owning. I admit he does do good against Wawrinka and can trouble Nadal if he isn't playing great on HC. You already mentioned Murray and Zverev isn't touching Fed if he is at his usual standards this year.

I'm not doubting that he's getting better at beating players who he should beat(outside of slams at least) but the jump to #1 is enormous in the Big 4 era. It is probably the single hardest task a non-Big 4 member can have; even more than winning multiple slams. If 2018 is like 2002 or something, then I can see Zverev with a chance at #1 next year.

 

[Sysyphus]

Zverev owns Djokovic and Wawrinka. The only big 5 player with Zverev's number is Murray.

Spoiler

 

[BlackSilver]

Overrated, technically limited, physically limited, is nothing without his serve, forehand is always going to be average since he is not a teenager anymore and his development years are done, backhand is good but nothing special, awful touch and net game. Will struggle with players that can effectively return his serve, with means he will have to wait the decline of the top four to have real success.

 

[Fedberg20]

It's a bit overly optimistic, yes. Sure, we'd all love to see a new face on the top but it simply isn't happening yet. I was positive it will happen next year (even before 2017 started), but right now I have my doubts. Thiem seems to be absent from all surfaces besides clay, and Zverev can't do much at GS's yet. If they are to make any progress at the top level, I first expect them to win a couple of masters each - and I think next year that might actually happen. But talk of no. 1 before 2019/20 is a bit premature if you ask me.

Now, the OP's stats are very nice but the sample is really small and the much more important stat (at least for me) is matches won. This shows nice progress (almost 75 % compared to 65 last season) and if he can end this season on a high, and actually make a decent performance at the WTF and the remaining masters, I'll partly believe the OP's hype. But as of right now I think Sascha is in line for a quick defeat at Montreal; Gasquet is hard for him and Kyrgios isn't his best matchup, not to mention a big server in QF and possibly Nadal awaiting him in the SF. Not just yet, I am afraid.

 

[metsman]

Don't need to reach Slam QFs to become GOAT in the Meles era.

point stats at Citi Open and Marseille and Vienna and MARRAKECH are the real indicators of GOAThood.

 

[Thundergod]

point stats at Citi Open and Marseille and Vienna and MARRAKECH are the real indicators of GOAThood.

You forgot Rio.

 

[Meles]

I agree

He might need to get a good night's sleep, on top of just showing up

---

Always enjoy your posts, btw - the info, the enthusiasm and the not taking of self too seriously. Respect

And yes, I think Zverev's the future... but not yet.

Thank you. I love the stats and Zverev has been causing a big, big stir in recent months. Just a shame those five set losses at RG and Wimby.

I did not think his game would show anywhere near this kind of level back on hard courts, so I'm sure these numbers will fall before too long. I just updated the graphic in the OP and did a projection based on clay/grass, etc. without Washington. Here is the graphic again:

As you can see for clay and grass I overshot the mark a bit, but Zverev still had a strong jump on serve. The Zverev return game has been a concern for the long run (returning it like Roddick not good enough). Zed exceeded my clay return projection by 0.5% and grass by 1.4%. Zverev probably will come down to somewhere between my projection and what he's done in Washington, though from US Open until near the end of 2016 Zverev hit an amazing 41.0% (Federer type return numbers). So right now for his long run (ten or more years), those better return numbers are huge despite the seemingly small move. Federer on hard courts hasn't had much decline on return from his best years and has a career average of 40.0%. Roddick is something like 35.6% career. Sampras 38%. It's a very critical number and for tall players they tend to peak very early on return so 2018 could be peak return year for Zverev. So 38% this year with a ceiling of 39% in 2018 would have him with a lesser return than Sampras, but not a problem if he out bots Pete.

On serve Zed's 74.3% is crazy high as Isner sits at 72.7% and Karlovic at 71.7% in 2017. Federer career is 79.2% first serve won on grass and 77.6% on hard for a 1.6% differential. Zverev sits at 81.5% on first serve, but it is hard to imagine him much above 77.5% for the rest of 2017. For 2nd serve 57.0% seems a big jump for the rest of the year. For overall serve 70.0% points won for the rest of the year seems the most optimistic number I can project informed by the results in Washington. At 70.0% points won on serve and 38.0% for return on hard courts that puts him a little ahead of Federer on serve for career, and Sampras like on return, but well behind Fed. Zed would be close to Sampras in 1995 on the stats, but not as good as his surrounding prime years.

If my feedback theory and Ferrero are really having more of an impact then this could be very much like Federer in 2003, but perhaps with some better slam prospects with Zed's height and superior serve game. Very much like Roddick on hard courts in 2004, but without peak Fed blocking the way (just some prime Feddy.)

 

[Meles]

point stats at Citi Open and Marseille and Vienna and MARRAKECH are the real indicators of GOAThood.

Don't let the facts hit you on the way out the door. Citi Open has a better, deeper draw this year then Rogers the last two years and Cincy last year.

 

[Meles]

Nadal too (3-0 vs Z and 2-0 this year) and probably Fed (2-1 vs Z and crushed him in the Halle final a few weeks ago).

The ********* dismissal is about like what Zed just did to Kei (beating up a player who's had some tougher matches.) The reality is that Zverev beat this Federer at Hopman Cup. Sure Fed has improved some, but it was clear to anyone with a brain cell he was back in a big way and Zverev much improved in early 2017. Doubt ********* has improved as much as Zed since Hopman. Same can be said of Zverev playing Rafa at Auz where they went five sets. Rafa is a bit betterer, but Zed has pulled ahead in the meantime. With any luck we'll at least see Zverev vs Nadal at Rogers Cup.

As Zverev's serve game gets stronger his slam stamina improves exponentially. The Zedbot cometh.

 

[Sirius Black]

Zedman, sneaky and mean
Spider inside my dreams, I think I love you
You make me wanna cry, you make me want to die
I love you I love you I love you I love you
Zedman

 

[metsman]

Don't let the facts hit you on the way out the door. Citi Open has a better, deeper draw this year then Rogers the last two years and Cincy last year.

he has played well in Washington, still need to see it against the big boys (of which there are only 2 right now, granted). Dimitrov is in full blown mug mode once again, so it's up to Zverev to make USO competitive.

 

[abmk]

The ********* dismissal is about like what Zed just did to Kei (beating up a player who's had some tougher matches.) The reality is that Zverev beat this Federer at Hopman Cup. Sure Fed has improved some, but it was clear to anyone with a brain cell he was back in a big way and Zverev much improved in early 2017. Doubt ********* has improved as much as Zed since Hopman. Same can be said of Zverev playing Rafa at Auz where they went five sets. Rafa is a bit betterer, but Zed has pulled ahead in the meantime. With any luck we'll at least see Zverev vs Nadal at Rogers Cup.

As Zverev's serve game gets stronger his slam stamina improves exponentially. The Zedbot cometh.

You do realise Hopman cup is an exho, right ?

 

[smoledman]

I think both Roger & Rafa should begin to fear the big Z. He's coming for them and once he gets going, there's no stopping the Z train. Nole - check. Fedal next.

 

[smoledman]

Nadal too (3-0 vs Z and 2-0 this year) and probably Fed (2-1 vs Z and crushed him in the Halle final a few weeks ago).

We can pretend Halle never happened... Z is coming...

 

[Sysyphus]

LOL

Actual tournament finals (complete destruction) don't matter, but an exho earlier in the year at the start of Fed's comeback is evidence that Zed actually smokes Fed.

The confirmation bias is off the charts

 

[smoledman]

Zed smokes Fed every day of the week and on Sunday.

 

[Red Rick]

Eureka, Zverrero shall be the official rickname of this player @Meles

 

[smoledman]

Zed smoked Andersen today in 70 minutes. He's coming for Rafa in Montreal(semis), then Roger(finals). You can't stop the Zed Train.

 

[Red Rick]

Zed smoked Andersen today in 70 minutes. He's coming for Rafa in Montreal(semis), then Roger(finals). You can't stop the Zed Train.

And then he'll be burnt outcoming US Open, right on track for YE#3 without slam QFs.

 

[smoledman]

If Zed goes deep in Montreal, he'll skip Cincy and be fresh for US Open. He strikes me as a smart guy with a great team around him, sort of like Fred.

 

[smoledman]

Also Zed speaks great English at 20 which will increase his marketability. Endorsers will love him. I can see him following up Fred's sponsors like Rolex, Moet en Chandon, Mercedes(logical he's German).

 

[TheGhostOfAgassi]

Also Zed speaks great English at 20 which will increase his marketability. Endorsers will love him. I can see him following up Fred's sponsors like Rolex, Moet en Chandon, Mercedes(logical he's German).

His name has a schwoooong to it too, great name. Good looks. Good player. He has got it!
Good he is w Addidas though as Nike lately lacks class.

 

[yokied]

Fed absolutely murdered him in Halle. It was quite awkward to watch. For Fed to have any fear, he needs to have lost a few times to someone. There is no way Fed fears Zverev after Halle, where it was some first degree stuff.

 

[smoledman]

Fed absolutely murdered him in Halle. It was quite awkward to watch. For Fed to have any fear, he needs to have lost a few times to someone. There is no way Fed fears Zverev after Halle, where it was some first degree stuff.

Yeah but Zverev's weakest surface right now is grass and Roger is the grass GOAT. Also Rafa humiliated Zed 6-1 6-1 @Monaco 2 months earlier. Zed learns fast though and I predict he's going to start beating them very shortly on hardcourts.

 

[Meles]

You do realise Hopman cup is an exho, right ?

Saw the match. It wasn't Isner and Federer fooling around with Bill Gates.

 

[Meles]

Overrated, technically limited, physically limited, is nothing without his serve, forehand is always going to be average since he is not a teenager anymore and his development years are done, backhand is good but nothing special, awful touch and net game. Will struggle with players that can effectively return his serve, with means he will have to wait the decline of the top four to have real success.

So good already and lots of room for improvement. Couple more years until he's at his physical peak. 5 UEs in his last match and pounds the ball.

 

[abmk]

Saw the match. It wasn't Isner and Federer fooling around with Bill Gates.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/exhibition

Federer lost to Roddick in Kooyong exho just before the AO in 07. We all saw what happened at the AO when they met.

Federer just doesn't take any exhos that seriously, unlike say Nadal.

 

[Meles]

Eureka, Zverrero shall be the official rickname of this player @Meles

Zvero betterer.

 

[abmk]

Overrated, technically limited, physically limited, is nothing without his serve, forehand is always going to be average since he is not a teenager anymore and his development years are done, backhand is good but nothing special, awful touch and net game. Will struggle with players that can effectively return his serve, with means he will have to wait the decline of the top four to have real success.

oh well, the counter-balancing of the OP's wild posts with the opposite.

 

[rainingaces]

If Zed goes deep in Montreal, he'll skip Cincy and be fresh for US Open. He strikes me as a smart guy with a great team around him, sort of like Fred.

I think Delpo is going to smoke both of them and whoever has the gall to come through the bottom half and challenge his forehand authority.

 

[Meles]

Fed absolutely murdered him in Halle. It was quite awkward to watch. For Fed to have any fear, he needs to have lost a few times to someone. There is no way Fed fears Zverev after Halle, where it was some first degree stuff.

Keep dreaming. The Djokovic fans were much the same way about Thiem after the Rome match.

 

[Meles]

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/exhibition

Federer lost to Roddick in Kooyong exho just before the AO in 07. We all saw what happened at the AO when they met.

Federer just doesn't take any exhos that seriously, unlike say Nadal.

To my eyes Federer was using Hopman cup as warmup for Auz and took the match very seriously (they both did).

Looking at the Rogers Cup draw I don't see anyone who has a remote chance of stopping Zverev from showing up for a Fedal showdown. Kyrgios would have to undergo some sort of resurrection for the undead to not get clobbered in his current form (doubt he makes it the match.) Good chance Zverev makes Rogers final with a full tank. Only Nadal would be a roadblock of any kind. Federer should be there unless Thiemerer comes through and does the unthinkable.

 

[rainingaces]

To my eyes Federer was using Hopman cup as warmup for Auz and took the match very seriously (they both did).

Looking at the Rogers Cup draw I don't see anyone who has a remote chance of stopping Zverev from showing up for a Fedal showdown. Kyrgios would have to undergo some sort of resurrection for the undead to not get clobbered in his current form (doubt he makes it the match.) Good chance Zverev makes Rogers final with a full tank. Only Nadal would be a roadblock of any kind. Federer should be there unless Thiemerer comes through and does the unthinkable.

Washington was real fast, Toronto is definitely noticeably slower with a medium to low bounce but Zverev can play on any surface but it probably favours Nadal more.

 

[Meles]

Thank you. I love the stats and Zverev has been causing a big, big stir in recent months. Just a shame those five set losses at RG and Wimby.

I did not think his game would show anywhere near this kind of level back on hard courts, so I'm sure these numbers will fall before too long. I just updated the graphic in the OP and did a projection based on clay/grass, etc. without Washington. Here is the graphic again:

As you can see for clay and grass I overshot the mark a bit, but Zverev still had a strong jump on serve. The Zverev return game has been a concern for the long run (returning it like Roddick not good enough). Zed exceeded my clay return projection by 0.5% and grass by 1.4%. Zverev probably will come down to somewhere between my projection and what he's done in Washington, though from US Open until near the end of 2016 Zverev hit an amazing 41.0% (Federer type return numbers). So right now for his long run (ten or more years), those better return numbers are huge despite the seemingly small move. Federer on hard courts hasn't had much decline on return from his best years and has a career average of 40.0%. Roddick is something like 35.6% career. Sampras 38%. It's a very critical number and for tall players they tend to peak very early on return so 2018 could be peak return year for Zverev. So 38% this year with a ceiling of 39% in 2018 would have him with a lesser return than Sampras, but not a problem if he out bots Pete.

On serve Zed's 74.3% is crazy high as Isner sits at 72.7% and Karlovic at 71.7% in 2017. Federer career is 79.2% first serve won on grass and 77.6% on hard for a 1.6% differential. Zverev sits at 81.5% on first serve, but it is hard to imagine him much above 77.5% for the rest of 2017. For 2nd serve 57.0% seems a big jump for the rest of the year. For overall serve 70.0% points won for the rest of the year seems the most optimistic number I can project informed by the results in Washington. At 70.0% points won on serve and 38.0% for return on hard courts that puts him a little ahead of Federer on serve for career, and Sampras like on return, but well behind Fed. Zed would be close to Sampras in 1995 on the stats, but not as good as his surrounding prime years.

If my feedback theory and Ferrero are really having more of an impact then this could be very much like Federer in 2003, but perhaps with some better slam prospects with Zed's height and superior serve game. Very much like Roddick on hard courts in 2004, but without peak Fed blocking the way (just some prime Feddy.)

Zvero has arrived. Just crushed it today with only 5 UEs. All of the questionable serve stats are now even higher. Zvero with 88% first serve points won, 71% 2nd serve points, and won 82% of serve points with 69% first serving. Return points won was down with Anderson to 32%, but still broke twice while garnering break points in several other games. Something wonderful is happening.

 

[smoledman]

Zed only made 4 UFE?