Federer 2017 vs 2015 ( comparision of components of game )

[abmk]

His FH from AO onwards this year has been the best he's hit since 12 ( visible since the Nishikori match at the AO ) His BH is arguably as good as BH at his peak ( minus passing shots I think )....

The BH improvement was a work under progress under Edberg and finished under Ljubicic. He was hitting it consistently and deep , but not taking it as early as he is now.

He wasn't confident about going for it on the FH with his new racquet, but he's ripping it since his comeback.

Started returning more aggressively under Edberg , esp. with BH .....and finished under Ljubicic.

On the flip side, his movement has declined compared to 15, that was more visible in AO than in IW and is being masked by his groundies off both wings.

He's not servebotting as well as he was in 15, though serve is still pretty good.
Regularity of volleying has gone down quite a bit and level of it somewhat as well I think.

The big time-off ( 6 months ) gave him enough time to recover completely , become more confident on his groundstrokes ?

Comments ?

 

[-NN-]

FH best since 2012, as we've talked about and agreed on before.

BH is better than peak in some ways and worse in others. Federer suggests that his FH and slice used to be better but that his BH is better. His passing shot used to be better but we saw how splendid it can still be against M.Zverev at the AO. The difference is that his BH currently leaks less short balls than it used to, which is needed because he cannot save himself so easily with movement and agility as he could do in his pomp.

Movement is worse compared to 15 and he covers this excellently by more fully embracing his power baseline elements, albeit it means for the moment he's lost some nuance (dropshot pretty much non-existent for example). You also mention his volleys too, which I agree with on the whole. He's relinquished some of his all-court nuance for greater power baseline proficiency.

2017 as compared to 2015 (some edits)

-Slightly worse movement.
-Slightly less nuanced play.. slightly less variety.
-Better forehand and backhand which leads to...
-Better baseline proficiency - THE MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT FOR THE GAME TODAY.
-More aggressive return; dunno if stats back it up but seems he comes over the BH more often.. overall it's better.
-HC form is quite similar.. was excellent in 2015 and is excellent so far in 2017, but I have to give 2017 the edge so far because of how well he was able to take care of his service game in IW even though it's a quite slow HC tournament overall.

Also, although his movement has declined a bit, it might have seemed more obvious at the AO because the conditions on RL were medium-fast.. but also because he was right at the beginning of his comeback. He looked more explosive at IW, though I suspect he was in better condition for endurance at the AO.

 

[-NN-]

In the IW 2017 final, good evidence of Fed's sustained power baseline game was shown by going toe to toe with Wawrinka in a way that I don't tend to see from Federer in the match-up. That's to say that even when Diesel was fully warmed up, Federer equalled him with the backhand drives.

 

[tennisaddict]

FH, BH , ROS have improved .

Confidence is sky high at the moment and makes very good decisions when playing 0-30 or 15-30 points.

Serve goes up and down - I think it is going to be better as he plays more matches

The cut down in s&v game is little scary - how will the current game transition to Wimbledon ..

 

[Sartorius]

Below quote from Fed's presser after the Johnson match is relevant for any comparison. The question is about his backhand, but I think you can apply the answer to his FH as well, and his game in general. As it stands today I'd say his whole game looks better than it was in 2015, plus the confidence that comes with it all probably makes a huge difference. Ultimately the racquet change was fundamental, and how much it required for Fed to adapt is perhaps understated.

http://www.bnpparibasopen.com/~/med...15-wednesday/2017-march-15-federer.ashx?la=en

Q. Fans love all of your shots, but I think they particularly love your backhand. Could you give us a few free-form thoughts about your backhand, how it's evolved over the years, how you have worked on it, especially recently? Did you do a lot of video work Ivan, avoiding the net, being aggressive? Talk about that

ROGER FEDERER: I think with the bigger racquet, head size, and definitely having an easier time to come over the return, especially, and then stay aggressive throughout the rally, as well. Clearly because it has more power, I have to be careful, you know, how I manage that because the ball flies out of the racquet faster than with my previous racquet, before '14, that I had for a few years there. So for me, I think it was the work that I had in November/December. It's weird, you know, but you just feel like it's paying off, you know. Because I hit so many balls at practice, you go much more rhythm, rhythm, rhythm, and eventually you play points and sets and you realize all that rhythm, you almost don't need it. Because look at the rallies today. There was hardly any normal rallies against Steve Johnson. One is a slice, one is a huge topspin, one is a block return. You never play ten backhand to backhand shots, but in practice you practice those a ton and eventually they are engrained in the system and you feel way better. I think the backhand and putting -- has gotten better because I have been able to put so many hours onto the racquet now. And really, since this year, I feel super comfortable with the racquet, and I think I have also gained confidence stepping into it. Obviously you have to take it on the rise, and for that you need good footwork, because if the footwork is not right, you won't be on top of the ball. So I think all my coaches throughout my career have told me to go more for the backhand, but I used to shank more. So maybe deep down I didn't always believe that I had it in the most important moments. But I think that's changing little by little, which I'm very happy about.

 

[Charlemagne]

FH best since 2012, as we've talked about and agreed on before.

BH is better than peak in some ways and worse in others. Federer suggests that his FH and slice used to be better but that his BH is better. His passing shot used to be better but we saw how splendid it can still be against M.Zverev at the AO. The difference is that his BH currently leaks less short balls than it used to, which is needed because he cannot save himself so easily with movement and agility as he could do in his pomp.

Movement is worse compared to 15 and he covers this excellently by more fully embracing his power baseline elements, albeit it means for the moment he's lost some nuance (dropshot pretty much non-existent for example). You also mention his volleys too, which I agree with on the whole. He's relinquished some of his all-court nuance for greater power baseline proficiency.

2017 as compared to 2015

-Slightly worse movement.
-Slightly less nuanced play.. slightly less variety.
-Better forehand and backhand which leads to...
-Better baseline proficiency - THE MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT FOR THE GAME TODAY.
-HC form is quite similar.. was excellent in 2015 and is excellent so far in 2017, but I have to give 2017 the edge so far because of how well he was able to take care of his service game in IW even though it's a quite slow HC tournament overall.

Also, although his movement has declined a bit, it might have seemed more obvious at the AO because the conditions on RL were medium-fast.. but also because he was right at the beginning of his comeback. He looked more explosive at IW, though I suspect he was in better condition for endurance at the AO.

Is his movement really worse compared to 2015? I don't really notice that. I think his FH and BH are definite better compared to 2015. He didn't hit as many clean winners back then.

 

[-NN-]

Is his movement really worse compared to 2015? I don't really notice that. I think his FH and BH are definite better compared to 2015. He didn't hit as many clean winners back then.

Well, I can't be certain. I did qualify that by stating that the speed of the AO court may have contributed to it looking that way.. but I do think his movement was a bit sharper and more explosive in IW as compared to the AO regardless of conditions. Perhaps it gets showcased less often because of how aggressively he's playing the game as compared to 2015, whereas he was still depending quite a lot on his movement in 2015 to produce tremendous defence. He looked built for pure explosiveness and sharpness in IW 2017 and for that purpose his movements were sharp and incisive.

 

[Gazelle]

I prefer the 2017 version. He's embracing the power baselining stragy, which was always his main strength, no matter how good he is at the net.

 

[metsman]

In the IW 2017 final, good evidence of Fed's sustained power baseline game was shown by going toe to toe with Wawrinka in a way that I don't tend to see from Federer in the match-up. That's to say that even when Diesel was fully warmed up, Federer equalled him with the backhand drives.

well Stan's backhand was garbage today. But yes looks like his power baseline game is resembling 2012 much more than 2014-2015 right now.

 

[Sartorius]

I prefer the 2017 version. He's embracing the power baselining stragy, which was always his main strength, no matter how good he is at the net.

Yep. His baselining is still forward-oriented anyway, so he's better at the net when he naturally finds himself up there with good groundstrokes, compared to when he forces himself up there.

 

[ghostofMecir]

Great comments here.

He is hitting the FH with more confidence and his insideout FH has been deadly larger than that loopy shot we have seen post 2013. Another reason the FH looks better is because he's getting to hit a lot more PLUS or NEUTRAL FHs rather than those on the run. In 2013, 2014, 2015, last year, he was put on the run more easily than he is this year because he would cede ground with shortish BHs or ineffectual slices. He's not ceding anything this year because he's staniding on the baseline and taking the BH early and either dictating the point or losing it with an error.

That BH is opening up new FH rally opportunities and he's going for them. The deep CC BH rifle shots are eliciting shorter balls to the middle of the court that he can attack with the FH and come to net. The DTL BH is eliciting shorter CC FHs he can attack DTL with the FH and come to net. He's just not afraid of balls getting back to his BH and everything is opening up. He hit some lasers in BH to Bh exchanges with Stan today that he hasn't before. Same against Berdy, Kei, etc.

His second serve kicker has also been excellent. There were multiple times he got it up on the 6'5" Berdych BH on the AD side and the kicker down the T on the deuce court has also been good.

Agree that his game is less nuanced than in 2015. I also agree that in 2004-2006 he was less focused on point to point matters because he could just out talent and win against everyone. Now he knows he's more vulnerable so he plays higher %s, doesn't mess around, and that's why he was able to put up such dominant dominance ratio numbers in 2015. This year, he's been able to stick to a few principles AND play really aggressively but under control that his new racket gives him which is really something to marvel at.

 

[Meles]

FH best since 2012, as we've talked about and agreed on before.

BH is better than peak in some ways and worse in others. Federer suggests that his FH and slice used to be better but that his BH is better. His passing shot used to be better but we saw how splendid it can still be against M.Zverev at the AO. The difference is that his BH currently leaks less short balls than it used to, which is needed because he cannot save himself so easily with movement and agility as he could do in his pomp.

Movement is worse compared to 15 and he covers this excellently by more fully embracing his power baseline elements, albeit it means for the moment he's lost some nuance (dropshot pretty much non-existent for example). You also mention his volleys too, which I agree with on the whole. He's relinquished some of his all-court nuance for greater power baseline proficiency.

2017 as compared to 2015 (some edits)

-Slightly worse movement.
-Slightly less nuanced play.. slightly less variety.
-Better forehand and backhand which leads to...
-Better baseline proficiency - THE MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT FOR THE GAME TODAY.
-More aggressive return; dunno if stats back it up but seems he comes over the BH more often.. overall it's better.
-HC form is quite similar.. was excellent in 2015 and is excellent so far in 2017, but I have to give 2017 the edge so far because of how well he was able to take care of his service game in IW even though it's a quite slow HC tournament overall.

Also, although his movement has declined a bit, it might have seemed more obvious at the AO because the conditions on RL were medium-fast.. but also because he was right at the beginning of his comeback. He looked more explosive at IW, though I suspect he was in better condition for endurance at the AO.

Adapterer.

 

[wangs78]

6 months off
+ full health
+ lots of practice
+ greater comfort with racquet
+ taking the ball ever earlier
+ blazing backhand
+ probably a new more relaxed mindset
+ DECLINE OF ALL KEY RIVALS

= a great start to 2017

 

[InsideOut900]

I would wait a little bit to see how 2017 will be unfolding for Federer. Too many people see those improvements based on a few flashy performances as offensive game is always nice to watch and Fed is truly ripping the ball at times.

Now not to say Federer's game can't be considered better than in 2015, but people are quick to forget how solid Federer was 1-1.5 years ago. He even made a final in Rome on his weakest surface and played prime tennis all along from Wimby to USO, also playing well at IW/FO/Halle/Basel/WTF.

It is safe to say that Federer's BH tehnique improved and it is only up to his consistency now and also his confidance in big matches ( it is like he hit a reset button after the 6 months lay-off).

 

[metsman]

I would wait a little bit to see how 2017 will be unfolding for Federer. Too many people see those improvements based on a few flashy performances as offensive game is always nice to watch and Fed is truly ripping the ball at times.

Now not to say Federer's game can't be considered better than in 2015, but people are quick to forget how solid Federer was 1-1.5 years ago. He even made a final in Rome on his weakest surface and played prime tennis all along from Wimby to USO, also playing well at IW/FO/Halle/Basel/WTF.

It is safe to say that Federer's BH tehnique improved and it is only up to his consistency now and also his confidance in big matches ( it is like he hit a reset button after the 6 months lay-off).

Mostly agree, although I think his ground game is a bit more potent now than 2015, most people are underrating his 2015 because he ran into Djokovic and had that crappy AO loss (just sub 2016 AO in for 2015 basically). Basically, it's been just 14 matches so far and it's a long season ahead so many things could happen.

Prime tennis from Wimby-USO though? Really? I don't think 08-09 Federer loses both Wimby and USO to Djoker.

 

[abmk]

I would wait a little bit to see how 2017 will be unfolding for Federer. Too many people see those improvements based on a few flashy performances as offensive game is always nice to watch and Fed is truly ripping the ball at times.

Now not to say Federer's game can't be considered better than in 2015, but people are quick to forget how solid Federer was 1-1.5 years ago. He even made a final in Rome on his weakest surface and played prime tennis all along from Wimby to USO, also playing well at IW/FO/Halle/Basel/WTF.

It is safe to say that Federer's BH tehnique improved and it is only up to his consistency now and also his confidance in big matches ( it is like he hit a reset button after the 6 months lay-off).

IW - djoko made him look old and slow, because he wasn't getting much pop on his groundstrokes to hit past djoker there. only played some real good stuff for some games in the 2nd set to stretch it to a 3rd set.
FO - got crushed by stan....not playing well .
Basel - was inconsistent , though he probably played his best match there in the final vs nadal.

instead you could take dubai where he actually played real well ....

and he held up better physically in the 5-setters at the AO in 17- nishi/stan/nadal than he did vs djoker in wim 15/USO 15 , though level of play was clearly better before the final in wim 15/USO 15 than in AO 17.

one thing is for sure, slow HC goes to 17 fed by a country mile ..

expect clay to be somewhat similar ...will have to see on grass/fast HC/indoors ....

 

[Sereger]

More aggressive on attacking, both FH and BH.
Better returns. I dont feel the laziness on his returns that fed his opponent free points then.

 

[InsideOut900]

Mostly agree, although I think his ground game is a bit more potent now than 2015, most people are underrating his 2015 because he ran into Djokovic and had that crappy AO loss (just sub 2016 AO in for 2015 basically). Basically, it's been just 14 matches so far and it's a long season ahead so many things could happen.

Prime tennis from Wimby-USO though? Really? I don't think 08-09 Federer loses both Wimby and USO to Djoker.

He felt the pressure against Djoker in those USO/Wimby finals, but beside that he was flawless. The matches against Stan/Gasquet in USO were prime level for sure. The Murray match in Wimby was a masterclass, of course and the other matches were great too, just lost a set to a hot serving Groth.

And Cincy was prime tennis whole week, against Djoker included.

FO - got crushed by stan....not playing well .

Agree with the rest of your post, just gotta say that Fed played an relatively good match for his post prime standard on clay, but Stan was in scary form in all 3 sets.

 

[metsman]

He felt the pressure against Djoker in those USO/Wimby finals, but beside that he was flawless. The matches against Stan/Gasquet in USO were prime level for sure. The Murray match in Wimby was a masterclass, of course and the other matches were great too, just lost a set to a hot serving Groth.

And Cincy was prime tennis whole week, against Djoker included.


Agree with the rest of your post, just gotta say that Fed played an relatively good match for his post prime standard on clay, but Stan was in scary form in all 3 sets.

but that's the whole point of being prime, being able to bring your best against the best, he wasn't able to do that against Djoker in B05, whereas I doubt that would be the case for 08-09 Federer (late prime).

 

[Lord Anomander]

Federer is also extremely strong mentally this year. His break point conversion is top notch, especially if you consider how many games he won, where he had break point opportunities. The Donskoy match might dampen the stats a little, but that match didn't really matter anyways - otherwise he would have won comfortable given his leads in the tiebreak and 3rd set.

 

[6-3 6-0]

Agree with the rest of your post, just gotta say that Fed played an relatively good match for his post prime standard on clay, but Stan was in scary form in all 3 sets.

Not taking away from Stan's credit, but Federer has been pretty crap on clay since 2013 and it won't change in future since that surface actually requires *movement* and proper defending. Stan would've likely won even if Fed was playing good by his 2015 standards. Serve (which has been Fed's greatest weapon post 2013) is pretty ineffective on clay compared to other surfaces.

 

[limmt]

I agree, his baseline skills have been very impoved especially by his BH.

You can see it in a stat that shows that: 9+ shot points. In 2015, he was losing that stat against nearly every play, even when he won easily, he would be something like 2 on 6 wins on 9+ shot points.

This year, he wons a lot more of these rallyes. 5 on 7 against Nadal, 4 on 6 against Stan.

 

[DRII]

didn't know it was possible to be insecure and braggadocious at the same time.

amazing illustration here...

 

[Deleted member 307496]

but that's the whole point of being prime, being able to bring your best against the best, he wasn't able to do that against Djoker in B05, whereas I doubt that would be the case for 08-09 Federer (late prime).

I don't see 2012 Federer losing a Wimbledon final to any version of Djokovic.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Is his movement really worse compared to 2015? I don't really notice that. I think his FH and BH are definite better compared to 2015. He didn't hit as many clean winners back then.

He doesn't need to move as much because he's not allowing himself to get bogged down in many long rallies. During the Del Po match, Annacone had a graphic which showed that Roger is standing 6 feet inside the baseline during most of his rally shots. That is just unreal! This is allowing him to get some great angles which are impossible to retrieve.

His form is so good right now I really hope he plays Madrid and Rome before RG. It's a chance to get more points and to keep himself in this wild groove.

 

[abmk]

didn't know it was possible to be insecure and braggadocious at the same time.

amazing illustration here...

I did know it was possible for a fed-hater/nadal fanatic to post utterly non-sensical stuff...

just the usual , just the usual ..

 

[sunny_cali]

It's DR - the duplicitous ****** - can't expect much from him.

I did know it was possible for a fed-hater/nadal fanatic to post utterly non-sensical stuff...

just the usual , just the usual ..

 

[Bender]

He basically reverted back to his 2012 / 2013 playing style, but with beefier groundstrokes off both wings, and more competency at net.

He's taken a page out of Agassi's playbook and making every return and groundstroke count, provided he can get there and set up. This also means that if he's unable to set up (eg running / passing shots), he's missing a whole lot more than we would have expected from him in his prime.

 

[Zebrev]

If he can make RG semi, he should be virtually guaranteed the best results since 2009.

 

[Meles]

His FH from AO onwards this year has been the best he's hit since 12 ( visible since the Nishikori match at the AO ) His BH is arguably as good as BH at his peak ( minus passing shots I think )....

The BH improvement was a work under progress under Edberg and finished under Ljubicic. He was hitting it consistently and deep , but not taking it as early as he is now.

He wasn't confident about going for it on the FH with his new racquet, but he's ripping it since his comeback.

Started returning more aggressively under Edberg , esp. with BH .....and finished under Ljubicic.

On the flip side, his movement has declined compared to 15, that was more visible in AO than in IW and is being masked by his groundies off both wings.

He's not servebotting as well as he was in 15, though serve is still pretty good.
Regularity of volleying has gone down quite a bit and level of it somewhat as well I think.

The big time-off ( 6 months ) gave him enough time to recover completely , become more confident on his groundstrokes ?

Comments ?

100% spot on with this analysis all the way back in March, but with 2017 complete now the picture is pretty clear that the new backhand and court positioning are a new form of Fed sorcery that has breathed tremendous life into his game especially on faster courts where his hand skills and experience/knowledge really distinguish his game.

For hard courts the Fed 2nd serve points won are up tremendously from 2015 and also a nice bump on 2nd return flying in the face of what should be declining numbers for the typical aged player. All this versus a healthier Fed in 2015. Faster courts at some venues in 2017 have been a benefit.

 

[metsman]

100% spot on with this analysis all the way back in March, but with 2017 complete now the picture is pretty clear that the new backhand and court positioning are a new form of Fed sorcery that has breathed tremendous life into his game especially on faster courts where his hand skills and experience/knowledge really distinguish his game.

For hard courts the Fed 2nd serve points won are up tremendously from 2015 and also a nice bump on 2nd return flying in the face of what should be declining numbers for the typical aged player. All this versus a healthier Fed in 2015. Faster courts at some venues in 2017 have been a benefit.

Please tell me that you're subtracting clay stats for 2015...

 

[-NN-]

100% spot on with this analysis all the way back in March, but with 2017 complete now the picture is pretty clear that the new backhand and court positioning are a new form of Fed sorcery that has breathed tremendous life into his game especially on faster courts where his hand skills and experience/knowledge really distinguish his game.

For hard courts the Fed 2nd serve points won are up tremendously from 2015 and also a nice bump on 2nd return flying in the face of what should be declining numbers for the typical aged player. All this versus a healthier Fed in 2015. Faster courts at some venues in 2017 have been a benefit.

About breathing life into one's game, often it's the change-up that's more important than anything else. Ya can't stand still otherwise you'll get solved eventually. These top guys are always tweaking things and are often moving targets and so they're a couple of moves ahead of the others.

 

[abmk]

100% spot on with this analysis all the way back in March, but with 2017 complete now the picture is pretty clear that the new backhand and court positioning are a new form of Fed sorcery that has breathed tremendous life into his game especially on faster courts where his hand skills and experience/knowledge really distinguish his game.

For hard courts the Fed 2nd serve points won are up tremendously from 2015 and also a nice bump on 2nd return flying in the face of what should be declining numbers for the typical aged player. All this versus a healthier Fed in 2015. Faster courts at some venues in 2017 have been a benefit.

From ATP site :

on HC,

Fed's 2nd serve return %s are the same in 15 and in 17 : 51%.
Maybe you are referring from TA which has screwed up stats in 2017 ?

His first serve win % was 81% in 2015, 79% in 2017
2nd serve win% was 57% in 2015, 59% in 2017

Service games % won = 92% in 2015, 91% in 2017.

----

His changes work on any kind of HC. The 2 slow HC tournaments he played, he won both of them - IW and Miami (including defeating Nadal, Stan, Berdych, Kyrgios and Nadal again)

 

[Meles]

From ATP site :

on HC,

Fed's 2nd serve return %s are the same in 15 and in 17 : 51%.
Maybe you are referring from TA which has screwed up stats in 2017 ?

His first serve win % was 81% in 2015, 79% in 2017
2nd serve win% was 57% in 2015, 59% in 2017

Service games % won = 92% in 2015, 91% in 2017.

----

His changes work on any kind of HC. The 2 slow HC tournaments he played, he won both of them - IW and Miami (including defeating Nadal, Stan, Berdych, Kyrgios and Nadal again)

ATP has pretty crude rounding if you get the actual numbers and hand calculated from the stat leaders you'd see the following:
2015 2nd return - 50.9% and 2017 51.5%
2015 2nd serve - 56.1% and 2017 58.9%

http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/playerProfile?playerId=3819

the above has a very nice interface, but only shows stats from the big events, no qualifiers or challengers, etc.

The most screwed up site is the ATP's hands down.

 

[Meles]

Please tell me that you're subtracting clay stats for 2015...

I'm only running hard courts of course. No grass, no clay. 2017 pretty impressive considering Fed's health pretty dodgy at Montreal, US Open, Basel, and WTF. Possibly a tad shaky at Miami as well.