Federer and Nadal and #1 Ranking

[McEnroeisanartist]

After Federer had his streak of 237 consecutive weeks ranked #1 end on August 18, 2008, Nadal has been ranked #1 for a total of 102 weeks.

Assuming Nadal is never ranked #1 again, do you think Federer will have more weeks ranked number one after August 18, 2008 than Nadal? Since that date that it was declared that Federer's reign was over and the Nadal reign had started, Federer has been ranked #1 for 61 weeks.

 

[RF20Lennon]

Maybe but doubt it.

 

[zam88]

i'm a big federer fan, and i seriously doubt he is #1 for 40 more weeks.

i'd be thrilled if he closed the year with it, which is going to be tough enough.

I suspect at the latest he loses it after the AO unless he pulls an upset there.

And I don't think he'll be #1 again... nor do i think it should be his goal to continue to be #1.. I think he should focus on reducing his schedule and gunning for Wimbledon.

I'm even ready to say he should cut down the clay season to a minimum and consider tanking the French a little earlier to get in more grass prep.

 

[MichaelChang]

After Federer had his streak of 237 consecutive weeks ranked #1 end on August 18, 2008, Nadal has been ranked #1 for a total of 102 weeks.

Assuming Nadal is never ranked #1 again, do you think Federer will have more weeks ranked number one after August 18, 2008 than Nadal? Since that date that it was declared that Federer's reign was over and the Nadal reign had started, Federer has been ranked #1 for 61 weeks.

what? .....

 

[tennis_pro]

Ok here's a quick summary:

Will Federer top the rankings for another 41 weeks?

The answer is possible but unlikely.

 

[tennis_pro]

what? .....

since August 2008.

 

[AnotherTennisProdigy]

That means holding it for nearly a year, I'm not even sure he can last until the end of the year. I don't think Nadal or Murray will pass him, but Djokovic is awfully close. Also, Federer has no room for error in the indoor season (literally).

 

[Jackuar]

i'm a big federer fan, and i seriously doubt he is #1 for 40 more weeks.

i'd be thrilled if he closed the year with it, which is going to be tough enough.

I suspect at the latest he loses it after the AO unless he pulls an upset there.

And I don't think he'll be #1 again... nor do i think it should be his goal to continue to be #1.. I think he should focus on reducing his schedule and gunning for Wimbledon.

I'm even ready to say he should cut down the clay season to a minimum and consider tanking the French a little earlier to get in more grass prep.

Second it all except tanking the French. His clay level is still superior to everyone except Nadal (An probably djokovic on an off-day)... Not a good sign of a champion to skip a GS altogether just because he can't win it. I'd rather have him skip the entire clay season bar FO.

 

[ollinger]

"IT WAS DECLARED" on 8/18/08 that Federer's "reign" was over. Ummm, by whom, the Pope?? The OP has managed to exceed himself in arbitrariness.

 

[BauerAlmeida]

"IT WAS DECLARED" on 8/18/08 that Federer's "reign" was over. Ummm, by whom, the Pope?? The OP has managed to exceed himself in arbitrariness.

He's right. A lot of people said that.

Anyway, I don't think he will. Djokovic will end 1 this year, but I think Federer will have it a few more weeks around February/March/April. But no enough to reach 102.

 

[Bobby Jr]

The thing with rankings this year, unlike the last two, is that the big tournaments have been split four ways - so we're having a year more like those we saw in the early 90s where no one person really stomped the whole year out and letting no-one else in with a chance. From 2011 Djokovic had an absolutely insane amount of points to defend this year - which he wasn't likely to do (and turned out to be the case). By contrast, the points Federer will have to defend next year will be comparatively less. Much less in the first 2/3 of the year. (2800 fewer)

Last year - and even earlier this year - many people said Federer had no chance of regaining the top spot again. As I said in another thread, it only takes a couple of poor results or split results here and there for someone who'd dominated the previous year to effectively gift those around them plenty of chance of reaching the top. That was the case this year for Federer - he benefited as much from Djokovic not playing as well as he did from all those points-on-offer being divided around two or three other players - giving no one player a hefty points haul.

So, it's not so much of how hard it is to climb... It's just as much, if not more when it's close, as how your fall is buffered by the results of everyone around you. Since Federer achieved the top rank with fewer high level results than Djokovic did last year it equates to a higher chance of being able to have similar results next year.

This week in:
2012 > Federer is 1400 points ahead of #2 ranked Djokovic.
2011 > Djokovic was 4200 points ahead of #2
2010 > Nadal was 4900 points ahead of #2
2009 > Federer was 2900 points ahead of #2
2008 > Nadal was 1100 points ahead of #2 (the last time someone was as close as this year)

Federer is currently #1 with 2800 points less than Djokovic had last year and 3500 less than Nadal the year before... Points he doesn't have to defend next year.

Once you factor in the next six weeks of tennis however the whole picture changes - with Federer having tons to defend.. Still, by comparison with the total calendar year he is miles down on 2011 Djokovic or 2010 Nadal. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he was #2 most of next year and achieved the #1 rank for short periods again.