Bender
G.O.A.T.
I don't disagree with your analysis. In fact I am inclined to agree with you on most points.The reports are about extremely slow conditions and that both is a disadvantage for Federer and an advantage to Nadal.
Especially agains Wawa, when Wawa can set up for his shots Federer is in for a huge dogfight and I am not confident that he will come out on top in the end. Tiafoe is dangerous because he is playing on his own turf and can also bring physicality to a match, which against Federer, if Federer had a huge match with Wawa can play a role. His next opponent could be potentially easier than Nadal's, but by that time he might not be there or extremely vulnerable, if Cilic plays well.
Nadal has Schwarzmann, who can play a physical game, but he has no weapons, and Nadal is in great physical shape to be concerned for the later rounds. Then Goffin, who is also lost against a player with weapons (David and Diego are not close only in first names), and he doesn't even have the advantage of great fitness. Isner is a big deal though. He plays on his home turf and his serve does damage even on the slowest surfaces. The thing is that Nadal has a clear strategy there: if he manages to return well Isner has already lost in such conditions.
All in all, Federer has the harder draw, and I expect him to fall before he meets Nadal if his opponents play to their current known level. Nadal will cruise in the earlier rounds, but, depending on how far he wants to go, we might see an "upset" against Isner or a showdown against someone from the other side of the draw.
The big unknown are the young guns, who are very inconsistent in their form and can get hot or just totally disappoint in less than ideal conditions.
That said I would mention a few things:
- The surface may suit Wawrinka fairly well but Wawrinka has never beaten Fed on HCs (he did get pretty close on a few occasions), and has only beaten Fed like twice in 20 something meetings. He hasn't beaten Fed in a while either. Plus, Fed's meeting a Wawrinka who's still trying to mount a comeback after injury and perhaps more importantly early on in a tournament where he hasn't had the opportunity to build momentum.
- I haven't been catching up with Goffin recently but Goffin is an underrated player IMO. IIRC the last time he played against Rafa on HCs he did win, although it was way back in 2017 when Goffin was in far better form, at the WTF, and Rafa withdrew with an injury after that match anyway. That said, Goffin, like Wawrinka, isn't in particularly great form either so tbh I don't expect Goffin to deliver an upset.
- I agree that Tiafoe like the rest of the young guns is a bit of a wildcard, but if he does play well it is going to be tough for Fed.
- Disagree re Schwartzman. The guy may be small and can play a physical game, but he can also really belt the ball (eg their last match at RG last year or their AO match). So he certainly does have the weapons although they admittedly aren't Wawrinka BH or Isner serve-tier weapons. I also have doubts that Diego would be able to deliver said weapons consistently enough to get the job done. That said, since IW is reportedly slow as molasses, this should work in Schwartzman's favour too as he does have the movement to maximise his court coverage, and give him time to take big swings at the ball the way he does best on clay or on surfaces playing close to clay (like IW reportedly is this year).
- This assumes that everyone plays to their level (as does yours from what I can tell), of course. There is a possibility that Rafa gets chumps who play their best ever tennis, while Fed draws all the big guys who play like garbage, and / or vice versa.
Edit 2: some more missing words
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