Federer can win 21 at W

Biotic

Professional
Are the stars aligned. 2021 and Federer to get no.21 at Wimbledon his beloved event.
You just know he wants to right the wrong of 2019.
Anyone know the odds? Could be worth a punt.
But what does it matter? Nadal is invincible on hardcourts and it's not like Federer can win another USO if Nadal is healthy come september.
 

James P

Legend
A 0.1% chance is still a chance. +1200 is equivalent to a 7.7% chance. Feels high to me, but not ridiculously so. Might be worth a little scratch.
 

Biotic

Professional
Sorry what has that got to do with this thread? Wimbledon is grass and it is about Federer.
Look man, whatever you say you can't change the truth that Nadal is the huge favorite at USO. I mean he won RG on low bouncing clay. What do you think he gonna do to Fed and Djoker on high bouncing decoturf?
 

duaneeo

Legend
If healthy, of course Federer can win Wimbledon. After Djokovic, who's favored next? Surely none of the sorry young players, who still can't win on their more favored hard and clay. 2019 showed that gramps still has the superior physical grass game over Nole, and I'm hoping the time off has cleared his mentality (as it had in 2017...enabling Roger to win the AO against nemesis Rafa, and to turn the tide in the H2H).
 

Biotic

Professional
Why are you spamming? This thread is about Wimbledon and Federer. Scroll up and check the title.
The man just said that Djoker would be favored if they met head to head right now at USO. I felt like I had to tell the truth. And the truth is that Nadal is almost as invincible on hardcourts as on clay.
 

Beckerserve

Legend
If healthy, of course Federer can win Wimbledon. After Djokovic, who's favored next? Surely none of the sorry young players, who still can't win on their more favored hard and clay. 2019 showed that gramps still has the superior physical grass game over Nole, and I'm hoping the time off has cleared his mentality (as it had in 2017...enabling Roger to win the AO against nemesis Rafa, and to turn the tide in the H2H).
I honestly feel if Federer got Djokovic at W he would do to Djokovic what Nadal did to him at FO 2020.
As you say Federer is a superior grass court player and if fit and playing well i think he would beat him easily. I think he would clean Rafas clock too at W.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
Federer is a superior grass court player and if fit and playing well i think he would beat him easily. I think he would clean Rafas clock too at W.
It has nothing to do with Federer being the greater grass court player, he's always been greater than Novak on grass but has lost 3 Wimbledon finals to him. Why? Because he's been a mental choker against Novak pretty much since 2010 in BO5. It doesn't matter how physically fit Roger would be a presumptive 2021 Wimbledon final, the mental scars are what would determine the outcome. I would favor him over Nadal at any slam besides RG, but obviously not Djokovic. He'll be 10 days shy of 40 years old when Wimbledon is next played, he's not beating anyone easily in a slam final at that age unless his opponent would be injured.
 

duaneeo

Legend
Age must also be considered.
I'm considering current times. Three players (with an average age of 35) have won 15 of the last 16 slams; two players (with an average age of 33.5) have won 10 of the last 11 slams. At the most recent slam, a 33 year old with a muscle tear beat a 25 year old at his physical peak in straight sets. And with Federer, he's lost only to Djokovic and Nadal in 3 of his last 4 slam appearances.

Perhaps the AO is the last hurrah, and age will finally become a factor for the Big-3 starting at RG, but who believes that?
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
A 0.1% chance is still a chance. +1200 is equivalent to a 7.7% chance. Feels high to me, but not ridiculously so. Might be worth a little scratch.
Being 40-15 with 2 match points while serving for the match is not "7.7%" chance. Federer was 99.99% sure Wimbledon champion last year at 40-15 and only a god-like passing shot from Djokovic saved the Serbian. I bet 99% of tennis viewers already assumed Federer was the champion when he was serving at 40-15. What happened later is a miracle.

Federer is the second favorite to win Wimbledon. 20% chances at the very least.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
It has nothing to do with Federer being the greater grass court player, he's always been greater than Novak on grass but has lost 3 Wimbledon finals to him. Why? Because he's been a mental choker against Novak pretty much since 2010 in BO5. It doesn't matter how physically fit Roger would be a presumptive 2021 Wimbledon final, the mental scars are what would determine the outcome. I would favor him over Nadal at any slam besides RG, but obviously not Djokovic. He'll be 10 days shy of 40 years old when Wimbledon is next played, he's not beating anyone easily in a slam final at that age unless his opponent would be injured.
Federer was a mental giant in the ATP 2019 finals. Don't underestimate the old man. He might have a last hurrah in him.
 
I'm considering current times. Three players (with an average age of 35) have won 15 of the last 16 slams; two players (with an average age of 33.5) have won 10 of the last 11 slams. At the most recent slam, a 33 year old with a muscle tear beat a 25 year old at his physical peak in straight sets. And with Federer, he's lost only to Djokovic and Nadal in 3 of his last 4 slam appearances.

Perhaps the AO is the last hurrah, and age will finally become a factor for the Big-3 starting at RG, but who believes that?
For federer I do. I feel he is gonna struggle to get back to that high level consistently. Nadal and Djokovic are still a bit younger than him, which is significant. They currently still used to winning too and have their pet slams to rely on. Fed doesn’t have a pet slam to rely on as Wimbledon is not a lock for him like it used to be when he was younger and dominated it. He’s vulnerable pretty much anywhere now.
 

Firstservingman

Talk Tennis Guru
Age must also be considered. Even if Fed is healthy, a 40 year old man has never won Wimbledon. Don't think it has even come close to happenning in the Open Era.
doesn't mean much. we're in a brave new era now where records mean little and precedent means even less
 

Firstservingman

Talk Tennis Guru
It has nothing to do with Federer being the greater grass court player, he's always been greater than Novak on grass but has lost 3 Wimbledon finals to him. Why? Because he's been a mental choker against Novak pretty much since 2010 in BO5. It doesn't matter how physically fit Roger would be a presumptive 2021 Wimbledon final, the mental scars are what would determine the outcome. I would favor him over Nadal at any slam besides RG, but obviously not Djokovic. He'll be 10 days shy of 40 years old when Wimbledon is next played, he's not beating anyone easily in a slam final at that age unless his opponent would be injured.
sure. but if djokovic gets knocked out it's his to lose
 

James P

Legend
I'm considering current times. Three players (with an average age of 35) have won 15 of the last 16 slams; two players (with an average age of 33.5) have won 10 of the last 11 slams. At the most recent slam, a 33 year old with a muscle tear beat a 25 year old at his physical peak in straight sets. And with Federer, he's lost only to Djokovic and Nadal in 3 of his last 4 slam appearances.

Perhaps the AO is the last hurrah, and age will finally become a factor for the Big-3 starting at RG, but who believes that?
I believe it every new tournament. Memory of a goldfish, I tell ya.
 

threehandedbackhand

Professional
Federer was 99.99% sure Wimbledon champion last year at 40-15 and only a god-like passing shot from Djokovic saved the Serbian.
You are simplifying it too much, that wasn't just one shot what let him to survive. Djokovic delivered decent returns with no error four times in a row under an enormous pressure and played outstanding bh-fh sequence precisely into the corners at 40-40. 120 seconds of a rock solid defense and counterdefense.
 

GabeT

Legend
Being 40-15 with 2 match points while serving for the match is not "7.7%" chance. Federer was 99.99% sure Wimbledon champion last year at 40-15 and only a god-like passing shot from Djokovic saved the Serbian. I bet 99% of tennis viewers already assumed Federer was the champion when he was serving at 40-15. What happened later is a miracle.

Federer is the second favorite to win Wimbledon. 20% chances at the very least.
That depends on his level coming back to the Tour. Has anyone seen him play lately?
 

ForehandRF

Hall of Fame
Being 40-15 with 2 match points while serving for the match is not "7.7%" chance. Federer was 99.99% sure Wimbledon champion last year at 40-15 and only a god-like passing shot from Djokovic saved the Serbian. I bet 99% of tennis viewers already assumed Federer was the champion when he was serving at 40-15. What happened later is a miracle.

Federer is the second favorite to win Wimbledon. 20% chances at the very least.
I think the majority of Fed fans had in their minds the USO SF of 2011 at that point and even the match against Delpo at IW 2018, so they didn't assumed it was over.
 

Robert F

Professional
I think next week will show us if the knee is ready. If that goes well his chances go up.
The second factor is his age. Is he fit enough to recover for seven Bo5 matches? That will be harder to gauge until he gets into a slam. I
If his knee is good, he definitely has good matches in him, the difficult things is stringing 5-6 of them in a row to win a slam. Figure you can sneak out 1 or 2 crappy wins early on, but you need to keep the level up to get the trophy.
Both he and Serena are showing how with age you can play great for a few matches and then just be off.
Djoker at AO, was slow out the gates but kept playing better and steadier tennis as it went on. That might be tough to pull off when he is 40.
 
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