Federer chances in Australian Open

How far will Federer go in Australian Open?

  • First Round

    Votes: 4 6.7%
  • Second Round

    Votes: 1 1.7%
  • Third Round

    Votes: 2 3.3%
  • Fourth Round

    Votes: 15 25.0%
  • Quarterfinal

    Votes: 19 31.7%
  • Semifinal

    Votes: 6 10.0%
  • Final

    Votes: 1 1.7%
  • Tournament win (GOAT confirmed forever and ever until the end of time)

    Votes: 12 20.0%

  • Total voters
    60
#1
Level wise after watching his performances in Hopman Cup - especially his match against Gasquet - seems quite high. Light on the feet, the forehand and volleys clicking really well. His serve looked GOATly in his last two matches for most of the time and his backhand was excellent against Gasquet.

So, how do you guys fancy his chances in the upcoming Australian Open? I honestly believe he has a shot against anyone except Djokovic, Murray and a red hot Wawrinka. I don't see any reason why he wouldn't be able to handle Raonic, Nadal, Nishikori and the guys behind them. Federer looks back to his 2015 level in my eyes and the power in his forehand has increased (comparing to last few years, not his prime).

For those of you who haven't catched a glimpse of his match versus Gasquet, here's a highlight reel below:

 
#4
I'm still not buying it because of the Zverev match - he could lose to some big hitter or one of the other "Big 4", dependent on when he meets them in the draw. Could be as early as the 3rd round!
I'd really like to see him go far in this tournament, maybe even all the way but I don't think it's happening. Not with no official matches played since June/July. That said, he's shown some great shots in Perth - so with some luck, a QF or even SF appearance :)
 
#5
Go big or go home. Anything less than winning would be disappointing. He's had 6 months to prep for the Aussie.
Wouldn't that be something if he ended up winning the whole thing. Even though his comeback matches have went better than expected (atleast in my Nadal-humble-like opinion), I think he's really doing all his rehab, practicing in matches to reach peak form at Wimbledon.
 
#6
This will be the weirdest year where Nadal wins Melbourne, Fed wins Roland Garros , Wawa wins Wimby, and Nishikori wins USO
 
C

Charlie

Guest
#7
Even though votes aren't public I know it's SinjinCooper (the greatest expert) who voted for a tournament win.

It doesn't have 2 votes atm because KINGROGER hasn't voted yet. :)
 
#8
I'm still not buying it because of the Zverev match - he could lose to some big hitter or one of the other "Big 4", dependent on when he meets them in the draw. Could be as early as the 3rd round!
I'd really like to see him go far in this tournament, maybe even all the way but I don't think it's happening. Not with no official matches played since June/July. That said, he's shown some great shots in Perth - so with some luck, a QF or even SF appearance :)
I understand what you're saying, and you're probably right. But we have to remember that the Zverev match was very close and Federer really should have won that first set. Zverev is also looking better than he did last year and will without doubt crack the top 10 this season. No shame in losing in a third set tiebreak after six months back. I just think that Federer will be even more competetive and ready for big matches when then the Australian Open comes round.
 
#9
I think the "GOAT forever" parenthetical should be included after every option, since absolutely nothing about his legacy is at stake here.

But it looks like at least a semi, and then it depends on other guys' levels of play and Fed's own health and stamina. Should be regarded as a co-favorite for the tournament at worst, so his current 23-1 or whatever odds remain criminal.
 
#12
Wouldn't that be something if he ended up winning the whole thing. Even though his comeback matches have went better than expected (atleast in my Nadal-humble-like opinion), I think he's really doing all his rehab, practicing in matches to reach peak form at Wimbledon.
Melbourne has been his most consistent place after Wimby. Other than Seppi early exit he's been to semis or better since 2004. Only a Peak Nadal or Nole could stop him at Melbourne.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
#13
He should reach the 3rd round no problem and then it depends on the draw. 3rd round if he gets a crap draw, 4th in an OK draw, QF if he has a good draw, SF if he has a great draw and some of the better players collapse in his section.
 
#16
Players, who in my view, "could" beat Fed at the AO this year: Djokovic, Murray, Nadal (they've all done it before), Raonic, Cilic, Kyrgios and (maybe) Zverev.

Doesn't mean they have to - I'm just saying don't be surprised if it's one of these guys.
I'm sure he's been working out effective ways to compete at the very top of the game again
 
#17
He's looking very good. At very least his 2015 - 2016 AO level. He will have no trouble whatsoever with the likes of Thiem, Gasquet, Berdych, Nishikori, Monfils and other ranked 6 and below mugs. He probably won't have any problems with Murray either as he's Fed's pigeon.

The problem he will have is vs djokovic, red hot Wawrinka or a firing big hitter like Cilic or Raonic. Otherwise I predict he will make 2-3 GS SF Possibly a final, he can win Stuttgart, Halle, Basel, Cincy and go deep at 3/4 slams just like 2015/early 2016. Providing he keeps injury free.
 
#18
Players, who in my view, "could" beat Fed at the AO this year: Djokovic, Murray, Nadal (they've all done it before), Raonic, Cilic, Kyrgios and (maybe) Zverev.

Doesn't mean they have to - I'm just saying don't be surprised if it's one of these guys.
I'm sure he's been working out effective ways to compete at the very top of the game again
Agree. Not sure about Kyrgios though and Cilic, who really only seems to perform truly well at the US Open.

I'd say he's an odds favourite against anyone except Djokovic and Murray (assuming his level of play continue at the same level or rising). Oh, I forgot Del Potro. I'd have to put him up there with Wawrinka.
 
#20
Also seems like he's been tweaking parts of his game. That serve out wide with A LOT of slice creates an even better angle than I've seen before and like I said earlier, the increasment of pace on his forehand side... it looks promising.
Hard to dislike anything I saw at the Hopman. His level looked fine after the time off, and he was clearly working on things instead of getting super results-focused. (Hell, he told Zverev when to challenge.)

I like that he didn't look worn out at the end of a very grueling three setter, and didn't have any trouble bouncing back the next time out. Looks five-set fit to me.

If I'm being honest, I'd like to see Fed avoid another headbutting contest with Zverev if he can. Though I think Fed's savvy and experience would carry the day, the kid's clearly got a game that's not right in 36 y.o. Fed's wheelhouse.

For obvious reasons, not particularly worried if he has to face Murray or Stan. He just has their numbers. Be curious to see what kind of rebound we get from Djokovic. Is Delpo back in? Last I knew he was doubtful, but I haven't been reloading news feeds or anything.
 
#21
He's looking very good. At very least his 2015 - 2016 AO level. He will have no trouble whatsoever with the likes of Thiem, Gasquet, Berdych, Nishikori, Monfils and other ranked 6 and below mugs. He probably won't have any problems with Murray either as he's Fed's pigeon.

The problem he will have is vs djokovic, red hot Wawrinka or a firing big hitter like Cilic or Raonic. Otherwise I predict he will make 2-3 GS SF Possibly a final, he can win Stuttgart, Halle, Basel, Cincy and go deep at 3/4 slams just like 2015/early 2016. Providing he keeps injury free.
I'm actually a bit worried about Murray. He's confident, been playing extremely well the last few months and we'd have to remember he actually beat Federer in their last meeting at the Australian Open back in 2013. Slow hard court favours Murray in my opinion, atleast over five sets.
 
#22
Agree. Not sure about Kyrgios though and Cilic, who really only seems to perform truly well at the US Open.

I'd say he's an odds favourite against anyone except Djokovic and Murray (assuming his level of play continue at the same level or rising). Oh, I forgot Del Potro. I'd have to put him up there with Wawrinka.
I'm apprehensive about Cilic because of what happened at Wimbledon last year and the 2014 US Open - he could decide to turn into Superman. Same with Kyrgios - he only seems motivated when he comes up against Fedal and we know he's a big server and has home support. Same with Zverev, who is clearly upping his game against Fed as though he's got a point to prove
 
#23
I'm apprehensive about Cilic because of what happened at Wimbledon last year and the 2014 US Open - he could decide to turn into Superman. Same with Kyrgios - he only seems motivated when he comes up against Fedal and we know he's a big server and has home support. Same with Zverev, who is clearly upping his game against Fed as though he's got a point to prove
Yeah, maybe I'm underestimating Cilic a bit...

As for Kyrgios, I don't see him beating Federer in a five setter. Federer's too smart and can make so many adjustments while the match unfolds, whereas Nadal seems to stick to his game plan no matter what.
 
#25
I'm actually a bit worried about Murray. He's confident, been playing extremely well the last few months and we'd have to remember he actually beat Federer in their last meeting at the Australian Open back in 2013. Slow hard court favours Murray in my opinion, atleast over five sets.
Oh I won't underestimate him. But I'd rather Fed draw Murray than someone like Djokovic, Cilic, Del Potro because Murray could self destruct at any time if a fly starts buzzing near him or something and I think he matches up well there.
 
#26
I'm still not buying it because of the Zverev match - he could lose to some big hitter or one of the other "Big 4", dependent on when he meets them in the draw. Could be as early as the 3rd round!
I'd really like to see him go far in this tournament, maybe even all the way but I don't think it's happening. Not with no official matches played since June/July. That said, he's shown some great shots in Perth - so with some luck, a QF or even SF appearance :)
Zverev played out of his mind, like it was a final in a tour match and still barely won. If they meet Down Under, Federer's the favorite for sure.
 
#28
I think the "GOAT forever" parenthetical should be included after every option, since absolutely nothing about his legacy is at stake here.

But it looks like at least a semi, and then it depends on other guys' levels of play and Fed's own health and stamina. Should be regarded as a co-favorite for the tournament at worst, so his current 23-1 or whatever odds remain criminal.
Really criminal to give the 35yo who hasn't won a slam in 4 years 23-1 odds on his comeback after a 6 month layoff. What are those bookmakers thinking?!
 
#29
Yeah, maybe I'm underestimating Cilic a bit...

As for Kyrgios, I don't see him beating Federer in a five setter. Federer's too smart and can make so many adjustments while the match unfolds, whereas Nadal seems to stick to his game plan no matter what.
You can't worry too much about a Cilic or a Kyrgios. They're "any given day" type players, but they're like that against absolutely anyone. If you draw them on the wrong day, and they happen to fire off round after round of winners and aces, and all their mishits somehow find the lines that day, you just shake your head and move on to the French.

Sweating them is like sweating an earthquake. Yeah, you're powerless if it happens, but it probably won't.
 
#31
Damn....he looks really sharp. Gasquet is no chump. Fed looks to be set on playing even more aggressive. Good for him. I hope he does well and gets to play a top pro. Does anyone know what his rank or seeding will be?
 
#33
And by the way, if ANYONEknows how to get fit enough to play 5 sets...he does. His fitness will not be an issue. Never has. Just harder to play 5 sets at the top of your game the older you get. As good as anyone in 3 setters for sure.
 
#34
You can't worry too much about a Cilic or a Kyrgios. They're "any given day" type players, but they're like that against absolutely anyone. If you draw them on the wrong day, and they happen to fire off round after round of winners and aces, and all their mishits somehow find the lines that day, you just shake your head and move on to the French.

Sweating them is like sweating an earthquake. Yeah, you're powerless if it happens, but it probably won't.
I don't agree. Federer is also a guy who can take the racquet out of other players' hands. Just like Kyrgios and Cilic. So, what happens when these types of players face each other on some of those good days? It will be a thrilling match, not a demolition.
 
#38
It's hard to gauge things from exibition matches.
He did look fine in Gasquet match while looked unsure in Zverev match.

It depends what seed he would get. His ranking is on the borderline of 16 seeds.
If it is out of top 16 seeds, it could be harder to reach 2nd week.
 
#39
Level wise after watching his performances in Hopman Cup - especially his match against Gasquet - seems quite high. Light on the feet, the forehand and volleys clicking really well. His serve looked GOATly in his last two matches for most of the time and his backhand was excellent against Gasquet.

So, how do you guys fancy his chances in the upcoming Australian Open? I honestly believe he has a shot against anyone except Djokovic, Murray and a red hot Wawrinka. I don't see any reason why he wouldn't be able to handle Raonic, Nadal, Nishikori and the guys behind them. Federer looks back to his 2015 level in my eyes and the power in his forehand has increased (comparing to last few years, not his prime).

For those of you who haven't catched a glimpse of his match versus Gasquet, here's a highlight reel below:

Can't imagine Fed reaching second week but man he really plays beautifully!
 
#42
Agree that he appears to be in tremendous form. After that lay-off, and the age he is now, it's kind of astounding to me. I wish that he could get some titanic match-up in like the second round, and catch one of the big fish napping. I think that he could put a hurting on just about anyone on the tour for a set. Feel like it's gonna be difficult to sustain that level in consecutive BO5 matches. It's okay. Hopefully, we'll get a couple of rounds of stellar play. Don't want to predict a round, specifically, but try to read between the lines. Getting pretty excited now. Can't believe he's primed... AGAIN.
 

Zebrev

Hall of Fame
#43
I'll go one step further - He's the favorite!

The current number one, Murray, is no problem for Federer. Really the one thing standing in the way of Federer winning a slam in the last couple years has been Djokovic, and look what happened there, yikes!

Fed vs Djok, or Fed vs Murray - I think Fed would win either match up.

The real question is can he get there, to the final? That's unknown. There are plenty of players that could pick him of, but I wouldn't rule him out of any match up. Like I said, Djokovic has always been the main issue, and Djokovic's level has dropped off dramatically since Federer last played on the tour.
 
#44
Fed is going to face a player ranked 9-16 in R3 - that should be doable. Only person who can beat him there is Nadal. I don't think Kyrgios / Dmitrov / Pouille will do it , though they will take at least a set or two from Fed.

For R4, he will beat anyone except Murray , Djokovic and Raonic. Fed will likely beat Cilic, Nishikori, Thiem and Monfils.

If he can avoid Murray, Djokovic, Raonic and Nadal , then Fed can go all the way to SF.
 
#45
IMO the 4th round is the best bet but with a bit of luck he could go further. Federer's overall level this week was decent and he obviously was very impressive against Gasquet. The serve worked like a charm and Roger was hitting the ball cleanly off both wings, hit some nice volleys as well. The return is the biggest concern but it's not vital against low-ranked opponents and he probably will improve as the tournament progresses.

I am hoping Federer can pull off something special and make it far.
 
#47
Overall he has surpassed my expectations formwise. The match against Gasquet was awesome but Gasquet is a pushover for Federer. But in general his shots look good. Serve is missing a few ticks but basically looks back to his normal serve and a well-serving Federer is still easily a top 5-10 caliber player even considering the layoff.

However, B05 on a slow court is still another story. I'll be happy if he gets to the 2nd week and puts forth a decent performance losing to a top player. I think it'll be key that he adopts some of his 2014 tactics and keeps points short in the early rounds. However, unless he has a particularly bad day like the Seppi loss he shouldn't lose to a mug based on the form he showed this week
 
#48
Hard to dislike anything I saw at the Hopman. His level looked fine after the time off, and he was clearly working on things instead of getting super results-focused. (Hell, he told Zverev when to challenge.)

I like that he didn't look worn out at the end of a very grueling three setter, and didn't have any trouble bouncing back the next time out. Looks five-set fit to me.

If I'm being honest, I'd like to see Fed avoid another headbutting contest with Zverev if he can. Though I think Fed's savvy and experience would carry the day, the kid's clearly got a game that's not right in 36 y.o. Fed's wheelhouse.

For obvious reasons, not particularly worried if he has to face Murray or Stan. He just has their numbers. Be curious to see what kind of rebound we get from Djokovic. Is Delpo back in? Last I knew he was doubtful, but I haven't been reloading news feeds or anything.
delpo is not playing which is too bad. The surface would really suit him
 

Roddick85

Hall of Fame
#50
4th round. Lack of match play will eventually catch up to him, fitness/stamina wise. He could go deeper if he cruises through in straight sets in the first couple of matches, however I expect him to be troubled early on depending on the draw he gets. Let's not forget that with his current ranking, he'll meet stronger opposition much more early than usual.
 
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