Federer Fans - What is your realistic expectation of his Clay Court Season?

#1
Federer Fans - What is your realistic expectation of his Clay Court Season?

I would expect his clay court season to be similar to 2013-2015. Reach 4th Round/QF the French Open and one Final at one of the three Masters Series tournaments.

Losing before French Open 4th Round would be very surprising. Winning a Masters Series tournament on clay would be very surprising.
 

ChrisRF

Professional
#3
I think he will only play Madrid and RG, so he would have only that one chance for reaching a Masters final.

At RG anything is possible but nothing is sure. As always, the only unreachable goal is beating an in-form Nadal. Thiem is beatable as he should have beaten him yesterday. I don’t think it will be more difficult on clay than in these Indian Wells conditions, especially in a Slam where I expect Thiem to choke a bit and not to crush everything into the corners with full risk like yesterday in the last 2 sets.
 

Towny

Professional
#5
Madrid - QF/SF
RG - 4R/QF

He's not winning a tournament. I doubt he'll manage a clay final either. A SF at RG would be a fantastic result, but I think a 2013-15 result is more realistic. It's 5 sets of quite physical play. If he gets a very easy draw, he could gt a SF. Realistically, to go further, he'll need to go through one of Nadal/Djokovic/Thiem. In other words, it's not happening.
 

NEW_BORN

Hall of Fame
#9
It depends on the type of opponent he faces.
Realistically, one sf, or a final would be above expectations.
But hopefully he wins every match he plays.
 

Pheasant

Hall of Fame
#13
Let's take a look at Fed's results on clay

2016: 3-2 on clay, which includes 0-1 vs top 10. Fed's losses include Thiem in 3R of Italy and QF to Tsonga in MC
2015: 13-4 on clay, which includes 2-2 vs top 10 and 4-3 vs top 20. Fed won Istanbul, lost R16 in MC, lost Rome final to Djoker, lost QF of RG to Stan
2014: 7-3 on clay, which includes 1-1 vs top 10. Lost R16 in RG to Gulbis, lost R32 in Rome to Chardy, lost MC final to Stan

Fed wasn't doing great on clay then. Now, he's 3-5 years older and incredibly rusty on that surface.

I would love a QF for Fed at any event on clay. That'd be an awesome result. But I doubt that Fed gets that far.

Let's look at some other French Open results by former Open ERA FO 2+ time champions as old men(turned 30+ the year they played the FO):
Lendl: Ages 32-34(after skipping two years at the FO). Losses in 2nd round, 1st round, and 1st round.
Bruguera: age 30: 2nd round loss
Wilander: ages 30-32: 1st round loss, 2nd round loss, 2nd round loss
Kuerten: age 32: 1st round loss

Clay is by far Fed's worst surface and he's quite a bit older than the guys above when they got beat early. A QF by Fed at RG this year would be a miracle run. A R16 appearance would be a great run by Fed.
 
#14
He could play Estoril which if he did he'd win.

Madrid I think he makes SF. It's generally been the open tournament with Nadal "only" winning it 5 times. I also don't think Fed gets any land-mines before the SF despite his ranking.

French Open is interesting. His 2015 form leads me to believe a Quarter run is by no means unlikely. If anything he can make it to SF given good circumstance. Think of it this way, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka are not factors now (Wawrinka seems to be going more for hard court nowadays in my opinion) so that's 2 big blocks taken out. After Nadal and Novak you really only have Thiem and Zverev. So if Roger isn't facing any of those 4 in the Quarters he probably beats whoever else he might get.

So if he plays Estoril, he'll win that and then back to back SF exits at Madrid and the French.
 

NKDM

Professional
#15
Let's take a look at Fed's results on clay

2016: 3-2 on clay, which includes 0-1 vs top 10. Fed's losses include Thiem in 3R of Italy and QF to Tsonga in MC
2015: 13-4 on clay, which includes 2-2 vs top 10 and 4-3 vs top 20. Fed won Istanbul, lost R16 in MC, lost Rome final to Djoker, lost QF of RG to Stan
2014: 7-3 on clay, which includes 1-1 vs top 10. Lost R16 in RG to Gulbis, lost R32 in Rome to Chardy, lost MC final to Stan

Fed wasn't doing great on clay then. Now, he's 3-5 years older and incredibly rusty on that surface.

I would love a QF for Fed at any event on clay. That'd be an awesome result. But I doubt that Fed gets that far.

Let's look at some other French Open results by former Open ERA FO 2+ time champions as old men(turned 30+ the year they played the FO):
Lendl: Ages 32-34(after skipping two years at the FO). Losses in 2nd round, 1st round, and 1st round.
Bruguera: age 30: 2nd round loss
Wilander: ages 30-32: 1st round loss, 2nd round loss, 2nd round loss
Kuerten: age 32: 1st round loss

Clay is by far Fed's worst surface and he's quite a bit older than the guys above when they got beat early. A QF by Fed at RG this year would be a miracle run. A R16 appearance would be a great run by Fed.
Can you do one predicting Roger’s 2017,2018 and 2019 Hard Court results on the basis of his 2014,15,16 performance on the same surface like you did here with clay? I would love to see what that the stats and rational projection by age throw up...
 
#20
He will be #3 or #4 seed

Tough Opponents in bold -

Last years #3 and #4 seed draws at Madrid -
#3 Raonic-Shapovalov-Edmund-Zverev-Thiem
#4 Dzumhur-Lajovic-Anderson-Thiem-Zverev

So a QF-SF run is possible

Last years #3 and #4 seed draws at Rome -
#3 Nishikori-Kohlschreiber-Djokovic-Nadal-Zverev
#4 Harrison-Paire-Carreno Busta-Zverev-Nadal

Nishikori is ranked higher this year so he will meet him in QF+

So again QF-SF

Last years #3 and #4 seed draws at French Open
#3 Duckworth-Hurkacz-Johnson-Fognini-JMDP-Nadal-Thiem
#4 Safwat-Donaldson-Verdasco-Djokovic-Cecchinato-Thiem-Nadal

So 4R or QF

Excepting around 500-1000 points.Could gain more if a draw opens up which can happen on clay
 
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#22
Monte Carlo 3rdR (still need to get used.
Rome W (it's the big missing trophy for Fed, and with a favorable draw can win the tourney)
Madrid QF (Saving energy for FO)
FO F (Draw will be crucial. Not much for high ranked players, but possibly avoid Argentinians and Spanish hardcore claycourters would be a good energy saving deal on the process to the final stages of the tournament.
 
#23
i think if he's playing well he matches up pretty well against everyone not named nadal or novak...but i also think more players pose danger. i think running into an RBA, guys like that, could pose problems by just not missing and hitting deep, making him impatient.
 
#28
Let's take a look at Fed's results on clay

2016: 3-2 on clay, which includes 0-1 vs top 10. Fed's losses include Thiem in 3R of Italy and QF to Tsonga in MC
2015: 13-4 on clay, which includes 2-2 vs top 10 and 4-3 vs top 20. Fed won Istanbul, lost R16 in MC, lost Rome final to Djoker, lost QF of RG to Stan
2014: 7-3 on clay, which includes 1-1 vs top 10. Lost R16 in RG to Gulbis, lost R32 in Rome to Chardy, lost MC final to Stan

Fed wasn't doing great on clay then. Now, he's 3-5 years older and incredibly rusty on that surface.

I would love a QF for Fed at any event on clay. That'd be an awesome result. But I doubt that Fed gets that far.

Let's look at some other French Open results by former Open ERA FO 2+ time champions as old men(turned 30+ the year they played the FO):
Lendl: Ages 32-34(after skipping two years at the FO). Losses in 2nd round, 1st round, and 1st round.
Bruguera: age 30: 2nd round loss
Wilander: ages 30-32: 1st round loss, 2nd round loss, 2nd round loss
Kuerten: age 32: 1st round loss

Clay is by far Fed's worst surface and he's quite a bit older than the guys above when they got beat early. A QF by Fed at RG this year would be a miracle run. A R16 appearance would be a great run by Fed.
You're being a bit pessimistic. I expect R16/QF at the French.
 
#30
Federer Fans - What is your realistic expectation of his Clay Court Season?

I would expect his clay court season to be similar to 2013-2015. Reach 4th Round/QF the French Open and one Final at one of the three Masters Series tournaments.

Losing before French Open 4th Round would be very surprising. Winning a Masters Series tournament on clay would be very surprising.
There's no reason why he cannot win Madrid. Quarters in Paris
 

Pheasant

Hall of Fame
#34
You're being a bit pessimistic. I expect R16/QF at the French.[/QUO

Hopefully, Fed surprises the heck out of me with a deep run. I really hope so. But as I posted above, the 2+ FO title holders in the Open Era played horribly at RG in their 30's. Nadal is the only exception.

Ivan Lendl was great on clay. But his two year layoff absolutely destroyed his clay game.

I would be ecstatic if Fed made the QF of RG. Fed better rediscover his pseudo backhand. 2017 Fed on clay could have made a run with that backhand.
 
#35
i'm ngl, I'll be happy if he gets to r3 of the French. I'm not even sure what to expect from Madrid because while I suppose conditions will suit him the best out of the 3 masters, its still been a while since he played on clay so who knows.

forget it, I'm going to be thinking he is going to lose r1 for both, keep my expectations rock bottom.
 

Jackuar

Hall of Fame
#36
Realistically, I expect him play the last tourney before FO for warmup, lose in QF, go all bazooka one last time at the FO, hopefully win it. Anything more than that will grind him down and lose the Wimbly and possibly the rest of the season too.
 
#38
People don't know (or forget) that 38 year old Jimmy Connors actually threw in the towel at the '91 FO against Chang. He'd played four sets and was totally exhausted and retired during the match. No injury, just sick of the clay and exhausted.

Food for thought when you reflect on old players on clay.

I think a 4R at the FO would be a superlative result and a QF in Madrid would be excellent. Anything else would be surprising. Fed on clay is vulnerable to countless players. Guys like Simon, Tsonga, RBA, Goffin or even Gasquet would all be favored in a clay match against old Roger.
 
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