Federer/Nadal improvement and decline: ATP Matchfacts

[NatF]

Hi guys,

With all the weak era stuff etc...I thought it might be worth looking at the numbers from the ATP website. These can obviously be interpreted as you wish and would be interested in some sprited debate.

Ok so first a bit of explanation for my method.

For Federer average scores from two 4 year periods, 04-07 and then 08-11. For Nadal I will do his 3 years during Federer’s reign 05-07 versus 08,10, 13 e.g. his 3 best years considering a) he didn’t have 4 good years against ‘peak Federer’ and b) I don’t want to include injured years. I will bring in 2011 though for comparison later.

These average numbers are based on hard courts for now. This is primarily an inspection into Nadal becoming an all surface player. As well on Federer's decline. I will post some all surface numbers for added clarity later.

The most important numbers are IMO service games won and return games won.

* All numbers are rounded up or down.

Federer
On Serve averages 04-7;


393 Aces
79 Double Faults
62% 1st Serve
78% 1st Serve Points Won
59% 2nd Serve Points Won
193 Break Points Faced
70% Break Points Saved
644 Service Games Played
91% Service Games Won
71% Service Points Won


On Serve averages 08-11;


391 Aces
75 Double Faults
63% 1st Serve
79% 1st Serve Points Won
57% 2nd Serve Points Won
196 Break Points Faced
67% Break Points Saved
610 Service Games Played
90% Service Games Won
71% Service Points Won


Return averages 04-07;


34% 1st Serve Return Points Won
53% 2nd Serve Return Points Won
442 Break Points Opportunities
42% Break Points Converted
619 Return Games Played
30% Return Games Won
42% Return Points Won
56%Total Points Won


Return averages 08-11;


32% 1st Serve Return Points Won
51% 2nd Serve Return Points Won
388 Break Points Opportunities
42% Break Points Converted
590 Return Games Played
27% Return Games Won
40% Return Points Won
55%Total Points Won


My Conclusions: Couple percentage difference in his ability to win points on his second serve. Slight decline in baseline prowess is shown on serve. Serve has improved marginally as shown by his first serve stats. Overall there is an ever so slight drop off in his ability to hold serve. His ability to break which is certainly a product of his baseline play has dropped by 3%.

These are averages, Federer's best year in 2006 compared to 2008 shows a MUCH bigger drop off.

2008;

413 Aces
50 Double Faults
64% 1st Serve
78% 1st Serve Points Won
58% 2nd Serve Points Won
181 Break Points Faced
69% Break Points Saved
562 Service Games Played
90% Service Games Won
71% Service Points Won


30% 1st Serve Return Points Won
51% 2nd Serve Return Points Won
346 Break Points Opportunities
40% Break Points Converted
547 Return Games Played
25% Return Games Won
39% Return Points Won
54% Total Points Won

2006


403 Aces
83 Double Faults
62%1st Serve
77% 1st Serve Points Won
58% 2nd Serve Points Won
246 Break Points Faced
72% Break Points Saved
738 Service Games Played
91% Service Games Won
70% Service Points Won


35%1st Serve Return Points Won
53% 2nd Serve Return Points Won
514 Break Points Opportunities
44% Break Points Converted
710 Return Games Played
32% Return Games Won
42% Return Points Won
56% Total Points Won

As you can there is a huge drop off in return games won on hard courts. An undeniable decline. The trend on serve looks about the same as the averages. It is worth noting that in 2010 his Return Games won stats were up at 28%. This supports the notion that 2008 was a very bad year for Federer form wise at least on hard courts, he did not make a masters final on hard.

In terms of all surfaces I will provide the averages for Service Games won and Return Games won;

Serve 04-07: 90%
Return 04-07: 31%

Serve 08-11: 90%
Return 08-11: 27%

More of the same. Serve stats are steady but his return game has declined significantly.

Now for Nadal;

Nadal

On Serve averages 05-07;

120 Aces
66 Double Faults
66% 1st Serve
72% 1st Serve Points Won
57% 2nd Serve Points Won
187 Break Points Faced
64% Break Points Saved
449 Service Games Played
85% Service Games Won
67% Service Points Won


On Serve averages 08, 10, 13,


167 Aces
74 Double Faults
67% 1st Serve
74% 1st Serve Points Won
59% 2nd Serve Points Won
201 Break Points Faced
68% Break Points Saved
558 Service Games Played
88% Service Games Won
69% Service Points Won


Return averages 05-07;


31% 1st Serve Return Points Won
53% 2nd Serve Return Points Won
301 Break Points Opportunities
41% Break Points Converted
451 Return Games Played
27% Return Games Won
40% Return Points Won
53%Total Points Won


Return averages 08, 10, 13;


31% 1st Serve Return Points Won
54% 2nd Serve Return Points Won
347 Break Points Opportunities
43% Break Points Converted
559 Return Games Played
29% Return Games Won
40% Return Points Won
54%Total Points Won


My Conclusions: Nadal has improved his service significantly, as has his ability in return games. However the numbers in return games have changed less than Federer’s have in his supposed decline. The most major improvements have been in his serve.

Nadal’s later numbers were from a larger sample size, which may make those numbers more impressive. Likewise Federer’s peak numbers were from a slightly larger sample size so the reverse is also true a bit.

Interestingly some of Nadal’s return stats in 2011 were actually higher than his average and higher than in 2010. It looks like in 2010 the major difference maker was his serve stats which were at their highest.



2011
Serve;


142 Aces
77 Double Faults
65% 1st Serve
71% 1st Serve Points Won
56% 2nd Serve Points Won
232 Break Points Faced
63% Break Points Saved
486 Service Games Played
82% Service Games Won
66% Service Points Won


Return:


34% 1st Serve Return Points Won
54% 2nd Serve Return Points Won
350 Break Points Opportunities
45% Break Points Converted
493 Return Games Played
32% Return Games Won
42% Return Points Won
53%Total Points Won


2010;
Serve




204 Aces
77 Double Faults
64% 1st Serve
76% 1st Serve Points Won
59% 2nd Serve Points Won
198 Break Points Faced
68% Break Points Saved
604 Service Games Played
89% Service Games Won
70% Service Points Won


Return;


29% 1st Serve Return Points Won
53% 2nd Serve Return Points Won
383 Break Points Opportunities
40% Break Points Converted
607 Return Games Played
26% Return Games Won
39% Return Points Won
54% Total Points Won


Big drop off in serving ability but much better in return games from 2010 to 2011. That one is for you Djokovic fans.

In terms of all surfaces I will again provide the averages for Service Games won and Return Games won;

Serve 04-07: 85%
Return 04-07: 33%

Serve 08-11: 89%
Return 08-11: 32%

These numbers are invariably affected by Nadal's quite frankly insane stats on clay (2005 in particular he played so many games on clay that it brought his return games won up to 38% on all surfaces).

Isolating 2005 again, he won 85% of his service games on hard and 29% of his return games. Not too shabby at all. Albeit with a smaller sample size.

Overall then it is quite clear that Federer's decline is easily comparable to Nadal's improvements. I will contend that in terms of Federer especially competition is not a huge factor in the drop off from his numbers. In 2008 for example there were no matches against Nadal on hard courts and Djokovic only played him twice on hard courts. That's not enough for such a big drop, neither are the 4 matches with Murray considering the likes of Roddick and Safin hold serve much better than those 2 when in form. This can of course been debated.

What it mean?

I will have a look at Djokovic later as well, what is clear from there is an absolutely Godly increase in his return games won in 2011.

Also worth noting that Nadal's stats on clay have clearly declined from his younger years recently. Perhaps more on this later.

 

[tipsa...don'tlikehim!]

Great thread NatF finally some facts. Really interesting and relevant...

 

[NatF]

Thanks Tipsa, this could open the door for a perhaps more interesting debate of how much stock do we put in the 'Matchfacts'.

Is there anything different from what you expected?

 

[tipsa...don'tlikehim!]

Yep first thing that surprised me is the small difference between Federer 04-07 and 08-11 on serve.

Also he got exactly 42% of break points converted in both periods which is not that bad, so i guess this % dropped since 2011 ?

About Nadal I am not surprised by the improvement on serve obviously.

 

[tipsa...don'tlikehim!]

Federer in both periods is as good as Nadal when it comes to convert Break points.

 

[torpantennis]

That Federer 2008 year really stands out. The return games won dropping from peak 32% to 25%! So to all haters: He REALLY did have mononucleosis.

Considering that mono ended Ancic/Soderling careers, it was a miracle that he reached 3 slam finals in 2008! The other guys never fully recovered, neither did Federer.

 

[tipsa...don'tlikehim!]

Considering that mono ended Ancic/Soderling careers, it was a miracle that he reached 3 slam finals in 2008! The other guys never fully recovered, neither did Federer.

?? ?

 

[NatF]

Yep first thing that surprised me is the small difference between Federer 04-07 and 08-11 on serve.

Also he got exactly 42% of break points converted in both periods which is not that bad, so i guess this % dropped since 2011 ?

About Nadal I am not surprised by the improvement on serve obviously.

Yep, Federer's serve is still a big weapon. We can see that even this Wimbledon how great it still is. I'd argue it's gotten better as opposed to stayed the same because we can see his return game e.g. baseline play has diminished to a significant degree but he still holds quite easily.

Regarding Nadal, yes his serve has clearly improved. I feel his baseline game hasn't improved too dramatically.

 

[torpantennis]

?? ?

?? what? Mono takes multiple years to fully recover from. Ancic/Soderling quitted tennis, GOAT was even able to compete THROUGH the disease!

If it were not for that mono, Federer would've won AO-08, Wimbledon-08, AO-09 and USO-09! And most probably Djokovic wouldn't have won him at USO semis later on!

 

[NatF]

?? what? Mono takes multiple years to fully recover from. Ancic/Soderling quitted tennis, GOAT was even able to compete THROUGH the disease!

If it were not for that mono, Federer would've won AO-08, Wimbledon-08, AO-09 and USO-09! And most probably Djokovic wouldn't have won him at USO semis later on!

He was past the mono by the clay season in 2008, it took him a while after to catch up on his training though. He certainly wasn't affected at the AO in 2009.

 

[Jaitock1991]

He was past the mono by the clay season in 2008, it took him a while after to catch up on his training though. He certainly wasn't affected at the AO in 2009.

First of all: Great thread!! Even though I don't post a lot in here, I still read a lot. Every day. And this is definitely top 3 of the year so far

As for the quoted post; I certainly agree with you. The physical efffects of his mono was not as significant as people make it out to be. However. What I do feel that a lot of people forget, is what his mono lead to. His game declined during this period(only slightly), which led to his aura of invincibility deminishing, which again led to Roger losing confidence. And we all know that in tennis, the most confident player is also the most frequent winner. Without it, you're in big trouble. This must have had a huge effect on Fed.

Btw... Sorry for my bad English.. Not my first language!!

 

[NatF]

First of all: Great thread!! Even though I don't post a lot in here, I still read a lot. Every day. And this is definitely top 3 of the year so far

As for the quoted post; I certainly agree with you. The physical efffects of his mono was not as significant as people make it out to be. However. What I do feel that a lot of people forget, is what his mono lead to. His game declined during this period(only slightly), which led to his aura of invincibility deminishing, which again led to Roger losing confidence. And we all know that in tennis, the most confident player is also the most frequent winner. Without it, you're in big trouble. This must have had a huge effect on Fed.

Btw... Sorry for my bad English.. Not my first language!!

Your English is absolutely fine.

I agree, confidence was definitely an issue with Federer in 2008. Especially after the FO. His game on grass and clay was still very good in 2008, it was on hardcourts that he seemed to really drop off. With many poor losses.

I'm glad you approve of this thread, there's a lot of potential here I think.

 

[BringBackSV]

That Federer 2008 year really stands out. The return games won dropping from peak 32% to 25%! So to all haters: He REALLY did have mononucleosis.

Considering that mono ended Ancic/Soderling careers, it was a miracle that he reached 3 slam finals in 2008! The other guys never fully recovered, neither did Federer.

Haha, yeah....

 

[BringBackSV]

?? what? Mono takes multiple years to fully recover from. Ancic/Soderling quitted tennis, GOAT was even able to compete THROUGH the disease!

If it were not for that mono, Federer would've won AO-08, Wimbledon-08, AO-09 and USO-09! And most probably Djokovic wouldn't have won him at USO semis later on!

Are you trying to funny by making fun of some Fed fans or are you being serious?

 

[SpinToWin]

great thread NatF! This is one for the ages, one that should be stickied so that we can reference it whenever the weak era or (lack of) decline argument is presented. Really appreciate the effort in collecting this data and it was a joy to read!

 

[Federer20042006]

Federer's been able to compensate in service games by focusing on his serve to make up for the loss of baseline ability. He serves slower now, but has improved the way he mixes it up.

The other thing about prime Federer that I think you would find is that his breaks would come in bunches. He would stretch leads. Bagels and breadsticks. He'd have some tight sets, even some tiebreaks...but win or lose those, once he got a break, his mentality was to open a can of whoopass for the remainder of that set.

 

[torpantennis]

There's one bad decline in Federer's game: Movement to the right and hitting running or stretched FH when pulled wide. It was so evident even today.

IMO he should try S/V more, in today's match he was something like 13/15 on S/V. That's better than Sampras!

 

[NatF]

In terms of Nadal's performance on clay his 2007 and 2005 have numbers comparable to any of his best years.

2005
84% Service Games Won, 46% Return Games Won

2007
87% Service Games Won, 45% Return Games Won

Despite being undefeated in 2006 his numbers were lower than both 05 and 07.

2006
84% Service Games Won, 40% Return Games Won

2008 is typically cited as Nadal's clay peak, his return games won stat is mind blowing! His serving was less impressive but somewhat near his average of 85% won.

2008
84% Service Games Won, 51% Return Games Won

2010
91% Service Games Won, 41% Return Games Won

This supports 2010 being Nadal's best serving, his ground game even on clay was not as potent as even years like 2007 or 2005 judging by the return games won.

2011
83% Service Games Won, 44% Return Games Won

Big drop off in Nadal's service games won, return games won has increased back up to usual levels. I'd still consider this a prime year on clay though a slight drop off compared to even 2005.

2012
89% Service Games Won, 47% Return Games Won

This shows 2012 was won of Nadal's best on clay, I think it might be second behind 2008 or perhaps equal due to the serving.

2013
87% Service Games Won, 38% Return Games Won

2013 there is a big drop off in return games won, perhaps due to movement? Serve is still strong.

2014
83% Service Games Won, 44% Return Games Won

Interesting the back seems to be the problem this year with Nadal's baseline ability much closer to normal.

My conclusion is that Nadal's level on clay has been quite steady, this year and last it appears factors such as back and his knees have affected his game. Otherwise he has been quite strong.

His clay prime or peak clearly started in 2005 where his level was very similar even compared to his best years. The man is simply a beast on a clay maintaining such a standard all these years.

 

[kandamrgam]

In terms of Nadal's performance on clay his 2007 and 2005 have numbers comparable to any of his best years.

2005
84% Service Games Won, 46% Return Games Won

2007
87% Service Games Won, 45% Return Games Won

Despite being undefeated in 2006 his numbers were lower than both 05 and 07.

2006
84% Service Games Won, 40% Return Games Won

2008 is typically cited as Nadal's clay peak, his return games won stat is mind blowing! His serving was less impressive but somewhat near his average of 85% won.

2008
84% Service Games Won, 51% Return Games Won

2010
91% Service Games Won, 41% Return Games Won

This supports 2010 being Nadal's best serving, his ground game even on clay was not as potent as even years like 2007 or 2005 judging by the return games won.

2011
83% Service Games Won, 44% Return Games Won

Big drop off in Nadal's service games won, return games won has increased back up to usual levels. I'd still consider this a prime year on clay though a slight drop off compared to even 2005.

2012
89% Service Games Won, 47% Return Games Won

This shows 2012 was won of Nadal's best on clay, I think it might be second behind 2008 or perhaps equal due to the serving.

2013
87% Service Games Won, 38% Return Games Won

2013 there is a big drop off in return games won, perhaps due to movement? Serve is still strong.

2014
83% Service Games Won, 44% Return Games Won

Interesting the back seems to be the problem this year with Nadal's baseline ability much closer to normal.

My conclusion is that Nadal's level on clay has been quite steady, this year and last it appears factors such as back and his knees have affected his game. Otherwise he has been quite strong.

His clay prime or peak clearly started in 2005 where his level was very similar even compared to his best years. The man is simply a beast on a clay maintaining such a standard all these years.

Thanks for the work. Here are the best years of Rafa on clay statistically then,

1. 2012 - 89% Service Games Won, 47% Return Games Won = 136
2. 2008 - 84% Service Games Won, 51% Return Games Won = 135
3. 2007 - 87% Service Games Won, 45% Return Games Won = 132
3. 2010 - 91% Service Games Won, 41% Return Games Won = 132
5. 2005 - 84% Service Games Won, 46% Return Games Won = 130
6. 2009 - 85% Service Games Won, 43% Return Games Won = 128
7. 2011 - 83% Service Games Won, 44% Return Games Won = 127
7. 2014 - 83% Service Games Won, 44% Return Games Won = 127
9. 2013 - 87% Service Games Won, 38% Return Games Won = 125
10. 2006 - 84% Service Games Won, 40% Return Games Won = 124

 

[Tennisknowledge99]

Great thread! Thank you for these stats. This show how Fed declined after 2007, he clearly lost some power in his groundstrokes

 

[jm1980]

How did you compute these averages? Did it take into consideration the number of games/matches played into those years, or was it a simple average?

 

[The_Order]

Thanks for the work. Here are the best years of Rafa on clay statistically then,

1. 2012 - 89% Service Games Won, 47% Return Games Won = 136
2. 2008 - 84% Service Games Won, 51% Return Games Won = 135
3. 2007 - 87% Service Games Won, 45% Return Games Won = 132
3. 2010 - 91% Service Games Won, 41% Return Games Won = 132
5. 2005 - 84% Service Games Won, 46% Return Games Won = 130
6. 2009 - 85% Service Games Won, 43% Return Games Won = 128
7. 2011 - 83% Service Games Won, 44% Return Games Won = 127
7. 2014 - 83% Service Games Won, 44% Return Games Won = 127
9. 2013 - 87% Service Games Won, 38% Return Games Won = 125
10. 2006 - 84% Service Games Won, 40% Return Games Won = 124

I wonder where Chico is now. He thinks that 2006 was peak Nadal on clay. Obviously, he has no idea what he's on about.

I think mainly due to 2 things:

1) The foot injury at end of 2005 hurt his confidence
2) For the first time in his career, he faced a lot of pressure to defend his clay titles. You could see it too with the way he played in the 2006 clay season.

 

[Russeljones]

First of all: Great thread!! Even though I don't post a lot in here, I still read a lot. Every day. And this is definitely top 3 of the year so far

As for the quoted post; I certainly agree with you. The physical efffects of his mono was not as significant as people make it out to be. However. What I do feel that a lot of people forget, is what his mono lead to. His game declined during this period(only slightly), which led to his aura of invincibility deminishing, which again led to Roger losing confidence. And we all know that in tennis, the most confident player is also the most frequent winner. Without it, you're in big trouble. This must have had a huge effect on Fed.

Btw... Sorry for my bad English.. Not my first language!!

Knowing someone who had mono, I can tell you that it most definitely affects you physically. It's simply debilitating.

 

[kandamrgam]

I wonder where Chico is now. He thinks that 2006 was peak Nadal on clay. Obviously, he has no idea what he's on about.

I think mainly due to 2 things:

1) The foot injury at end of 2005 hurt his confidence
2) For the first time in his career, he faced a lot of pressure to defend his clay titles. You could see it too with the way he played in the 2006 clay season.

I always thought Nadal was beatable in 2006 on clay, but still someone will have to produce goat tennis for that. I mean Nole post 2011 has better chances of beating Nadal in 2006 compared to other years.

I do rate 2006 clay as his peak however, but not his best on clay. Come on after all he didnt lose a single match.

 

[kOaMaster]

Interesting stats.
My conclusions: Federer's game clearly dropped, mainly his returning abilities ("rally a ball on play"). He arguably improved his serve, being able to even overcompensate the "ball in play-weakness" in his services games.
Nadal has improved his serve quite a bit. That did help him to achieve more on "other" courts. Had his heights in 2010 imo. Returning didn't change a lot (perhaps even slowly declined), he has always been really good when the ball was in play.

For the future, Federer's success will rely even more on his serving. Thus, injuries hindering his serve (like back injuries) are a killer.
Nadal will now have slow continuous decline in returning/when the ball is in play. I don't think there's anything he has to compensate - but he is still good enough for most players, especially on clay.

 

[The_Order]

I always thought Nadal was beatable in 2006 on clay, but still someone will have to produce goat tennis for that. I mean Nole post 2011 has better chances of beating Nadal in 2006 compared to other years.

I do rate 2006 clay as his peak however, but not his best on clay. Come on after all he didnt lose a single match.

He didn't lose because he was still that good on clay. But to me his clay peak years aren't even consecutive. He's really weird because of injuries mainly, his form on different surfaces is not consistent.

On clay, his best years were no doubt 2008, 2012 and 2010. That was when he was playing at a level too high for anyone to beat in Bo5 matches.

 

[dominikk1985]

what is interesting is that there is basically no decline in his hold percentage (apart from 2013 when he had back Problems) but some decline in his return games won percentage.

basically those two stats are all you Need to know.

[/URL][/IMG]

however after 2009 his break rate stayed very consistent, he declined from 07-09, then went slightly up again (not to his old Level) and then stayed at the 2007-2008 Level till now.

 

[Russeljones]

what is interesting is that there is basically no decline in his hold percentage but some decline in his return games won percentage.

basically those two stats are all you Need to know.

[/URL][/IMG]

Just goes to show what a fine line separates the men at the very top of the game.

 

[Gary Duane]

Just goes to show what a fine line separates the men at the very top of the game.

Exactly. Just a couple % points on holding games or on returning make the difference between being in the top 20 or being number one in the world, and that is true year after year, decade after decade.

 

[NatF]

How did you compute these averages? Did it take into consideration the number of games/matches played into those years, or was it a simple average?

It was just a simple average.

Thanks for the work. Here are the best years of Rafa on clay statistically then,

1. 2012 - 89% Service Games Won, 47% Return Games Won = 136
2. 2008 - 84% Service Games Won, 51% Return Games Won = 135
3. 2007 - 87% Service Games Won, 45% Return Games Won = 132
3. 2010 - 91% Service Games Won, 41% Return Games Won = 132
5. 2005 - 84% Service Games Won, 46% Return Games Won = 130
6. 2009 - 85% Service Games Won, 43% Return Games Won = 128
7. 2011 - 83% Service Games Won, 44% Return Games Won = 127
7. 2014 - 83% Service Games Won, 44% Return Games Won = 127
9. 2013 - 87% Service Games Won, 38% Return Games Won = 125
10. 2006 - 84% Service Games Won, 40% Return Games Won = 124

Nice to see 2007 so high up

How much value do you see in stats like these?

 

[kandamrgam]

It was just a simple average.



Nice to see 2007 so high up

How much value do you see in stats like these?

Very much. Serve and return stats shows level and so does win% etc, but that's considering the entire field averages out to be the same which is reasonable to assume. Better would be to remove the results against better players like Fedalovic or whoever you think makes a difference because rest of the field will be good to average out.

Oh yeah, 2007 clay was very high level. From my subjective watching I rank it the second best below 2008 for Rafa. Those years he had some kind of invincibility in his shots that however he played a shot they all landed within the lines.

In fact right from 2005 he was "peak" on clay. Quite an anomaly, never happens usually, but that's what it is for Rafa on clay.

 

[PDJ]

I read the OP with great interest. Really interesting and I to applaud the effort that must have been made. Excellent.

 

[objectivity]

what is interesting is that there is basically no decline in his hold percentage (apart from 2013 when he had back Problems) but some decline in his return games won percentage.

basically those two stats are all you Need to know.

[/URL][/IMG]

however after 2009 his break rate stayed very consistent, he declined from 07-09, then went slightly up again (not to his old Level) and then stayed at the 2007-2008 Level till now.

note that his return game % had been dropping since 2005. i.e. if indeed we want to point to 2008 as "bad form", then 2006 and 2007 are similarly bad form years as well relative to 2005. the stats suggest to me, given that it is relative to field, that fed's "decline" in 2008 had less to do with his mono, but more to do with a general trend since 2005.

 

[NatF]

note that his return game % had been dropping since 2005. i.e. if indeed we want to point to 2008 as "bad form", then 2006 and 2007 are similarly bad form years as well relative to 2005. the stats suggest to me, given that it is relative to field, that fed's "decline" in 2008 had less to do with his mono, but more to do with a general trend since 2005.

Actually if you look carefully the peak is in 2006 at 32%. There's an 8% drop between 06 and 08. Interestingly 2009 is his worst year in terms of return games one. I'd be interested to his tiebreak record for that year to see if that can explain how he managed a significantly higher win/loss record.

 

[sunny_cali]

note that his return game % had been dropping since 2005. i.e. if indeed we want to point to 2008 as "bad form", then 2006 and 2007 are similarly bad form years as well relative to 2005. the stats suggest to me, given that it is relative to field, that fed's "decline" in 2008 had less to do with his mono, but more to do with a general trend since 2005.

Why did he again improve in 2009 then ?

 

[NatF]

Very much. Serve and return stats shows level and so does win% etc, but that's considering the entire field averages out to be the same which is reasonable to assume. Better would be to remove the results against better players like Fedalovic or whoever you think makes a difference because rest of the field will be good to average out.

Oh yeah, 2007 clay was very high level. From my subjective watching I rank it the second best below 2008 for Rafa. Those years he had some kind of invincibility in his shots that however he played a shot they all landed within the lines.

In fact right from 2005 he was "peak" on clay. Quite an anomaly, never happens usually, but that's what it is for Rafa on clay.

It could be an interesting exercise to look try and exclude the matches against big 3 players - though only from 2011 for Djokovic IMO. As I'm not convinced he was truly in a different league to the likes of Murray, Hewitt, Roddick etc...until then.

 

[kandamrgam]

It could be an interesting exercise to look try and exclude the matches against big 3 players - though only from 2011 for Djokovic IMO. As I'm not convinced he was truly in a different league to the likes of Murray, Hewitt, Roddick etc...until then.

Fair enough.

 

[NatF]

Fair enough.

On your signature, I don't think McEnroe has actually said Nadal is the GOAT

This article seems to suggest McEnroe recently called Federer the GOAT, although I can't see a quote;

http://www.**************.org/John-McEnroe-Roger-Federer-the-GOAT-Tennis-isnt-the-Same-Without-Rafael-Nadal-articolo21289.html

 

[torpantennis]

Thanks for the work. Here are the best years of Rafa on clay statistically then,

1. 2012 - 89% Service Games Won, 47% Return Games Won = 136
2. 2008 - 84% Service Games Won, 51% Return Games Won = 135
3. 2007 - 87% Service Games Won, 45% Return Games Won = 132
3. 2010 - 91% Service Games Won, 41% Return Games Won = 132
5. 2005 - 84% Service Games Won, 46% Return Games Won = 130
6. 2009 - 85% Service Games Won, 43% Return Games Won = 128
7. 2011 - 83% Service Games Won, 44% Return Games Won = 127
7. 2014 - 83% Service Games Won, 44% Return Games Won = 127
9. 2013 - 87% Service Games Won, 38% Return Games Won = 125
10. 2006 - 84% Service Games Won, 40% Return Games Won = 124

It could be an interesting exercise to look try and exclude the matches against big 3 players - though only from 2011 for Djokovic IMO. As I'm not convinced he was truly in a different league to the likes of Murray, Hewitt, Roddick etc...until then.

Yes, if you want to exclude level of competition from the stats, then do take matches between Big 3 or Big 4 away. I think those Nadal 2006 clay stats show the effect that the competition can have. Even though Nadal didn't lose a match on clay, it was his worst year stats wise because absolute peak 2006 Federer is the toughest competition he's ever faced on clay.

 

[Russeljones]

Yes, if you want to exclude level of competition from the stats, then do take matches between Big 3 or Big 4 away. I think those Nadal 2006 clay stats show the effect that the competition can have. Even though Nadal didn't lose a match on clay, it was his worst year stats wise because absolute peak 2006 Federer is the toughest competition he's ever faced on clay.

I disagree about 2006 Federer being that good on clay. I think clay is something he became good at later. Unfortunately for him, Nadal's development also continued.

 

[NatF]

Yes, if you want to exclude level of competition from the stats, then do take matches between Big 3 or Big 4 away. I think those Nadal 2006 clay stats show the effect that the competition can have. Even though Nadal didn't lose a match on clay, it was his worst year stats wise because absolute peak 2006 Federer is the toughest competition he's ever faced on clay.

Federer wasn't that great on clay in 2006, Rome aside. I don't think Murray is so great as to be 'excluded' from the comparisons. He's in the same tier as Hewitt/Roddick.

 

[torpantennis]

I disagree about 2006 Federer being that good on clay. I think clay is something he became good at later. Unfortunately for him, Nadal's development also continued.

Rome 2006 is the proof. That was about the last time that Federer played his own game on clay. Ever since 2007, he's played in Nadal's terms, i.e baseline loopy hitting. Playing that way, Federer never had any chance against Nadal on clay.

 

[torpantennis]

Federer wasn't that great on clay in 2006, Rome aside. I don't think Murray is so great as to be 'excluded' from the comparisons. He's in the same tier as Hewitt/Roddick.

Agree, no need to exclude Murray...

 

[NatF]

Rome 2006 is the proof. That was about the last time that Federer played his own game on clay. Ever since 2007, he's played in Nadal's terms, i.e baseline loopy hitting. Playing that way, Federer never had any chance against Nadal on clay.

Federer struggled in a rather low quality match with Nalbandian in the SF of Rome. Some of those finals aside he was still rather vulnerable on clay. He just had the aura of invincibility.

 

[Russeljones]

Rome 2006 is the proof. That was about the last time that Federer played his own game on clay. Ever since 2007, he's played in Nadal's terms, i.e baseline loopy hitting. Playing that way, Federer never had any chance against Nadal on clay.

Tennis is about more than Federer vs Nadal. Federer had the raw ability to beat anyone other than arguably the best clay court player of all time. With time we saw Federer develop a game plan on clay to bring out the best in his game. Let me ask you this: do you think 2006 Federer would have beaten 2011 Djokovic at Roland Garros? No. He would have been flustered at not blowing him away because he hadn't had too many tough losses to contend with. Maturity helped Federer's clay game more than anything else.

 

[torpantennis]

Federer struggled in a rather low quality match with Nalbandian in the SF of Rome. Some of those finals aside he was still rather vulnerable on clay. He just had the aura of invincibility.

Aura of invincibility, giving him the confidence to play his own game...

 

[Djokovic2011]

Yes, if you want to exclude level of competition from the stats, then do take matches between Big 3 or Big 4 away. I think those Nadal 2006 clay stats show the effect that the competition can have. Even though Nadal didn't lose a match on clay, it was his worst year stats wise because absolute peak 2006 Federer is the toughest competition he's ever faced on clay.

I'd say absolute peak Djokovic is the toughest competition Nadal's ever faced on clay but Federer was certainly a great rival on all surfaces back in the day.

 

[torpantennis]

Tennis is about more than Federer vs Nadal. Federer had the raw ability to beat anyone other than arguably the best clay court player of all time. With time we saw Federer develop a game plan on clay to bring out the best in his game. Let me ask you this: do you think 2006 Federer would have beaten 2011 Djokovic at Roland Garros? No. He would have been flustered at not blowing him away because he hadn't had too many tough losses to contend with. Maturity helped Federer's clay game more than anything else.

I believe 2006 Fed would've found a way to win. Yes, he didn't play an "orthodox clay style" back then, and in this sense 2011 RG was Fed's "best clay performance". BUT, playing with orthodox clay style will never be enough for Fed to beat Nadal. It's that matchup...

So IMO 2006 Fed was much tougher competition for Nadal on clay than 2011 RG Fed. Against the rest of the tour, it's about a tie.

 

[torpantennis]

I'd say absolute peak Djokovic is the toughest competition Nadal's ever faced on clay but Federer was certainly a great rival on all surfaces back in the day.

Djokovic still plays a rather orthodox clay style, and with that style it's almost impossible to beat peak Nadal on clay. Ferrer knows it. :lol:

 

[Russeljones]

I believe 2006 Fed would've found a way to win. Yes, he didn't play an "orthodox clay style" back then, and in this sense 2011 RG was Fed's "best clay performance". BUT, playing with orthodox clay style will never be enough for Fed to beat Nadal. It's that matchup...

So IMO 2006 Fed was much tougher competition for Nadal on clay than 2011 RG Fed. Against the rest of the tour, it's about a tie.

It seems to me you are obsessed with Nadal. How come?