Federer News

ForehandRF

Professional
True. Fed just can’t catch a break from the bad luck at the WTF since 2012. Kind of similar to his bad luck at the USO. Makes me wonder if it’s just an end of season hang over after a big Wimb run.
Well, he lost that epic vs Djokovic in 2012 unfortunately, then 2013 his worst year, followed by the famous withdrawal before the final in 2014 and in 2015, well, Djokovic again.2017 & 2018 were pretty bad.
 
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AceSalvo

Legend
People generally underselling how well goffin played to win that 2017 wtf semi. One of the best matches I've seen from him. Fedr still should have won though, because Fedr.
No one is underselling Goffin. Fed might have not been in the best shape especially after winning Shanghai. If Fed was in his best form at 2017 WTF, then there is no hope for Fed this time around since there are players playing at higher level than the WTF17 Goffin, right?
 

TearTheRoofOff

Hall of Fame
No one is underselling Goffin. Fed might have not been in the best shape especially after winning Shanghai. If Fed was in his best form at 2017 WTF, then there is no hope for Fed this time around since there are players playing at higher level than the WTF17 Goffin, right?
People have been doing that constantly. I agree Fed was not in his best form, though. Good match from what I remember.
 

TearTheRoofOff

Hall of Fame
Maybe because of the fact that Goffin rolls over for the Big3 constantly. Goffin is best known for fading away in a match after being in a strong position. WTF17 match was the one where he didn't. And he did beat both Fed and Nadal (both of whom had a very busy slam season) in the same tournament.
I generally agree, but my point is people have constantly scoffed at the goffin win in question, which belies your point about his performance in that match.
 

Fedforever

Hall of Fame
Bl**dy hell, been so preoccupied with politics in my own country, forgot that Fed was even playing yesterday. Still, looked like a comfortable win. I'm a bad, bad fan.
 

oldmanfan

Hall of Fame
In my opinion, he has not looked good in a match overall (looks good for spurts) since WC...
Agreed, sadly. But he still offers elusive glimpses of his 2003-2006 self.
Man, you guys are tough critics. Bc the stats tell a whole different story.

1st match indoors, and Fedr won in SS, 62 61:

W/UE:
Fedr = 34/13 (almost 3:1 ratio (coincidentally almost 3x Gojo's winners), this is destruction ratio :eek:)
Gojo = 13/17 (not great, but not horrible)

Fedr lost serve once, but broke Gojo 5 times and Gojo had 70% 1st serve in! :eek:

Total points won:
Gojo: 35
Fedr: 56 (60% more points won, :eek:)

Gojo served 70%, but only held serve 2x, in 7 attempts. If Fedr played a bit better, it would've been a double bagel, no? :eek:

The moral of the story?
I like the :eek: emoji.... ;)
 
Man, you guys are tough critics. Bc the stats tell a whole different story.

1st match indoors, and Fedr won in SS, 62 61:

W/UE:
Fedr = 34/13 (almost 3:1 ratio (coincidentally almost 3x Gojo's winners), this is destruction ratio :eek:)
Gojo = 13/17 (not great, but not horrible)

Fedr lost serve once, but broke Gojo 5 times and Gojo had 70% 1st serve in! :eek:

Total points won:
Gojo: 35
Fedr: 56 (60% more points won, :eek:)

Gojo served 70%, but only held serve 2x, in 7 attempts. If Fedr played a bit better, it would've been a double bagel, no? :eek:

The moral of the story?
I like the :eek: emoji.... ;)
Look, I will be honest, you can throw all the stats at me, I just personally have not seen or felt this as a Fed fan for the past 15 years. Looks mentally exhausted and "weary" is the word I would use. But this is expected, and we're still lucky to have a Fed that puts him in position to have opportunities to win titles.

But this is what age does. What it means to me is he can still bring his best, or close to it, but not consistently.

What do your eyes tell you the last few months?
 

oldmanfan

Hall of Fame
Look, I will be honest, you can throw all the stats at me, I just personally have not seen or felt this as a Fed fan for the past 15 years. Looks mentally exhausted and "weary" is the word I would use. But this is expected, and we're still lucky to have a Fed that puts him in position to have opportunities to win titles.

But this is what age does. What it means to me is he can still bring his best, or close to it, but not consistently.

What do your eyes tell you the last few months?
After WB19, Fedr has been mostly average, yes. But he has patches of good/great play at USO/LC/Shanghai. BUT, even his average play is still better than most of the field.

He's 38 now.
Maybe tweak your expectations a bit? By this I mean, look at his 'average' level. To me, his current average level is still top15 (maybe top10), and his full-flight level is still top2. As a fan of a 38yo tennis player, that's a good problem to have. For perspective, Murray scraped thru (good for him!) and won a ATP250 that Stan let slip. And he's 32 years old, not 38. Our guy is still comfortably top5 without needing top flight tennis (only bc of his poorer showing post WB19, bc he was top3 easily thru WB19).

Fun fact:
edit: Here is what I mean by Fedr's 'average' level. This is an exo, yes, but they both played relative to their current levels (but playing at about 90% real-match). Isner is easily one of the top5 servers of ALL time, and likely top2 currently. Yet... he didn't stand much of chance against a Fedr that just played Shanghai QF, flew to Japan, do media/promotions/etc., then play a match with huge crowd expectations (even tho exo) since he hasn't been here in ages. Relax Fedfans, we're in good hands ;).

 
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After WB19, Fedr has been mostly average, yes. But he has patches of good/great play at USO/LC/Shanghai. BUT, even his average play is still better than most of the field.

He's 38 now.
Maybe tweak your expectations a bit? By this I mean, look at his 'average' level. To me, his current average level is still top15 (maybe top10), and his full-flight level is still top2. As a fan of a 38yo tennis player, that's a good problem to have. For perspective, Murray scraped thru (good for him!) and won a ATP250 that Stan let slip. And he's 32 years old, not 38. Our guy is still comfortably top5 without needing top flight tennis (only bc of his poorer showing post WB19, bc he was top3 easily thru WB19).

Fun fact:
edit: Here is what I mean by Fedr's 'average' level. This is an exo, yes, but they both played relative to their current levels (but playing at about 90% real-match). Isner is easily one of the top5 servers of ALL time, and likely top2 currently. Yet... he didn't stand much of chance against a Fedr that just played Shanghai QF, flew to Japan, do media/promotions/etc., then play a match with huge crowd expectations (even tho exo) since he hasn't been here in ages. Relax Fedfans, we're in good hands ;).

Not arguing any of that. I agree, and I have "tweaked" my expectation, unfortunately. I do think Fed can still win any tourney he enters, just that he has more bad days and bad spurts, which will make winning these tourneys a bit harder and less often. I do realize he is 38, which is why this is to be expected (we are lucky he is still getting opportunities at this age).

This being said, it is the new norm, or has been since WC, so the drop has been more sharp then in recent past. This could all change come Paris or WTF. Just stating that since WC he has not had what I would call a good "run" in two or three matches. This is new considering I cant remember too often it has been months where he has not clustered a few good wins together.

As this "lull" continues, it becomes more alarming that this is the new expectation going forward, by saying he is a top 15 player on an average day.
 

BeatlesFan

Talk Tennis Guru
Look, I will be honest, you can throw all the stats at me, I just personally have not seen or felt this as a Fed fan for the past 15 years. Looks mentally exhausted and "weary" is the word I would use. But this is expected, and we're still lucky to have a Fed that puts him in position to have opportunities to win titles.

But this is what age does. What it means to me is he can still bring his best, or close to it, but not consistently.

What do your eyes tell you the last few months?
I agree with you completely and will go a step further: I think he's gearing up to retire at the end of 2020 (perhaps one last 2021 Wimbledon attempt). He's said for the past 10 years he will hang it up when he is no longer a threat at the majors. I know some Fed fans will argue, "he made it to the semis at the FO and he was within one point of winning Wimbledon!" But the fact is, he didn't win either event, that's the crux of it. The fact he's speaking much more freely in pressers is another indication that the end is coming. The fact he announced ridiculously early that he's playing RG next year and giving out his schedule in October, when in the past 4 years, he kept that close to the vest.

I think the Wimbledon defeat is something he will not recover from and hasn't recovered from. I sure hope I'm wrong, but I don't think he's capable at 38 of winning slams after having been dealt a devastating blow to his confidence. Sometimes in matches now he looks bored and simply disinterested. Hopefully this changes in 2020, but I'm not optimistic.
 

TearTheRoofOff

Hall of Fame
I agree with you completely and will go a step further: I think he's gearing up to retire at the end of 2020 (perhaps one last 2021 Wimbledon attempt). He's said for the past 10 years he will hang it up when he is no longer a threat at the majors. I know some Fed fans will argue, "he made it to the semis at the FO and he was within one point of winning Wimbledon!" But the fact is, he didn't win either event, that's the crux of it. The fact he's speaking much more freely in pressers is another indication that the end is coming. The fact he announced ridiculously early that he's playing RG next year and giving out his schedule in October, when in the past 4 years, he kept that close to the vest.

I think the Wimbledon defeat is something he will not recover from and hasn't recovered from. I sure hope I'm wrong, but I don't think he's capable at 38 of winning slams after having been dealt a devastating blow to his confidence. Sometimes in matches now he looks bored and simply disinterested. Hopefully this changes in 2020, but I'm not optimistic.
He didn't win either event but it's a shame that yields the perception that he isn't a threat. Of course he's a threat. Lady luck called in a lot of favours for that W result and to think another 40-15 situation wouldn't likely end differently is pessimistic to the extreme.
 

BeatlesFan

Talk Tennis Guru
Man, you guys are tough critics. Bc the stats tell a whole different story.
I couldn't care less about stats and at 38, stats are irrelevant for a tennis player, it's all uncharted territory except for Rosewall, and the game is radically more physical today. I rely on my eyes, not stats. And Fed is not the player he was even a year ago, and will continue to decline. It's impossible not to at 38.5 years of age. I'm not being pessimistic, I'm being realistic. And I sincerely hope someone can bump this to snicker if Fed wins #21, nobody would be more thrilled than me to be utterly wrong.
 

BeatlesFan

Talk Tennis Guru
It's a shame that yields the perception that he isn't a threat. Of course he's a threat.
I never indicated Fed isn't a "threat" anymore in general, especially in non-slams. He's a threat against everyone not named Djokovic or against nearly everyone off clay. He has been given uniformly hideous draws in slams and cannot overcome that, as Wimbledon indicated. Even with a favorable USO draw this year, he lost to his pigeon. He loses increasingly to people he used to beat in his sleep and that trend will continue unabated due to his age.
 

TearTheRoofOff

Hall of Fame
I never indicated Fed isn't a "threat" anymore in general, especially in non-slams. He's a threat against everyone not named Djokovic or against nearly everyone off clay. He has been given uniformly hideous draws in slams and cannot overcome that, as Wimbledon indicated. Even with a favorable USO draw this year, he lost to his pigeon. He loses increasingly to people he used to beat in his sleep and that trend will continue unabated due to his age.
Well, you kinda did: He's said for the past 10 years he will hang it up when he is no longer a threat at the majors and then you proceded to relate this to not winning slams of late, or at least that's how it read. Sure he lost to a mug, but that's hardly been a dealbreaker in the past. He lost to freaking Anderson at Wimbledon; one year later and he's in the final and in any other universe he wins it.

Fed is full of surprises and you never know what he might pull off. Of course there is also some likelihood that your predictions come to pass, but of those I am clearly less assured than yourself. It's hard to predict things anyway, let alone where unknown territory is concerned.

Believe me, I understand the pessimism. Fed's fans were arguably more crushed than even he by recent heartbreaks.
 
I agree with you completely and will go a step further: I think he's gearing up to retire at the end of 2020 (perhaps one last 2021 Wimbledon attempt). He's said for the past 10 years he will hang it up when he is no longer a threat at the majors. I know some Fed fans will argue, "he made it to the semis at the FO and he was within one point of winning Wimbledon!" But the fact is, he didn't win either event, that's the crux of it. The fact he's speaking much more freely in pressers is another indication that the end is coming. The fact he announced ridiculously early that he's playing RG next year and giving out his schedule in October, when in the past 4 years, he kept that close to the vest.

I think the Wimbledon defeat is something he will not recover from and hasn't recovered from. I sure hope I'm wrong, but I don't think he's capable at 38 of winning slams after having been dealt a devastating blow to his confidence. Sometimes in matches now he looks bored and simply disinterested. Hopefully this changes in 2020, but I'm not optimistic.
There it is. It is tough for some to hear. He will be 39 next year, and has given us, at least me some amazing sports years over the past 15+ years. It is what it is though. I dont think he is "planning" on this year being the end, but it is clear in the way he has acted (especially in interviews)
I agree with you completely and will go a step further: I think he's gearing up to retire at the end of 2020 (perhaps one last 2021 Wimbledon attempt). He's said for the past 10 years he will hang it up when he is no longer a threat at the majors. I know some Fed fans will argue, "he made it to the semis at the FO and he was within one point of winning Wimbledon!" But the fact is, he didn't win either event, that's the crux of it. The fact he's speaking much more freely in pressers is another indication that the end is coming. The fact he announced ridiculously early that he's playing RG next year and giving out his schedule in October, when in the past 4 years, he kept that close to the vest.

I think the Wimbledon defeat is something he will not recover from and hasn't recovered from. I sure hope I'm wrong, but I don't think he's capable at 38 of winning slams after having been dealt a devastating blow to his confidence. Sometimes in matches now he looks bored and simply disinterested. Hopefully this changes in 2020, but I'm not optimistic.
This. He is still a threat, but less than ever in my opinion. But this is fine and is also the new Fed reality at age 38 with 2 ATG's 5 and 6 years younger and final some new talent living up to it.

But if you have watched Fed since 05 or earlier, it is clear that he is not nearly as consistent, and since WC it has leveled off to as @oldmanfan said, he is averaging about a top 15 player on most days. This will not win slams unless he finds his groove for a week plus which at this age is going to be difficult. As we have seen the last couple months.

Nothing about this is pessimistic but as you said, reality. Can't be pessimistic about these years. Just need to enjoy the fact he is still playing.

His interviews and scheduling makes it clear he is preparing in a manner that if things go poorly next year, it will be the end or very close to it. That being said, he could still play for a few more years if he regains some of his form and can stay steady in the top 5 or top 8 range.
 
Fed is full of surprises and you never know what he might pull off. Of course there is also some likelihood that your predictions come to pass, but of those I am clearly less assured than yourself. It's hard to predict things anyway, let alone where unknown territory is concerned.

Believe me, I understand the pessimism. Fed's fans were arguably more crushed than even he by recent heartbreaks.
He is very capable of surprising us, which is why Fed is so special. He has done it before, so it can be done. But eventually it will have to end, and at some point it becomes an "impossible" task, and while he is not at that point, if he continues this level of consistent "top 15" play into early next year, then preparing for inevitable is not pessimistic but accepting his amazing off the charts career is coming to an end.

But he is Fed, so there is always the possibility. Either way, I think we will have a better idea after we see how this year finishes and how next year starts. Too early to count him out just yet, just saying it is trending in the opposite direction of what we are accustomed to the past 15+ years.
 

BeatlesFan

Talk Tennis Guru
There it is. It is tough for some to hear. He will be 39 next year, and has given us, at least me some amazing sports years over the past 15+ years. It is what it is though.

His interviews and scheduling makes it clear he is preparing in a manner that if things go poorly next year, it will be the end or very close to it. That being said, he could still play for a few more years if he regains some of his form and can stay steady in the top 5 or top 8 range.
Again, I totally agree. He's given us 20 years and all things must pass. His interviews and demeanor speak volumes about what he's thinking about next year and possibly beyond. I don't think he has much interest to just win two 500's and year and be irrelevant in majors. He's playing to win majors and has made that abundantly clear for years.

At this point, I hope for Djokovic to go on a mental walkabout like he did in 2017 and for Fed to finally get a decent draw in a slam. Then maybe #21 can become a reality. But the odds are long considering his age. I don't think this is pessimism as you said, it's simply being realistic.
 

ForehandRF

Professional
In late 2018 I was having a conversation with my dad(who has watched tennis since early 70s) and we both agreed that Fed's last chance to win a slam will be Wimbledon 2019.Unfortunately it wasn't meant to be.Yes, Fed has proved us wrong in many occasions along the years but chances are slim now.
If he wins Paris or the ATP finals, it means that his level is still high enough to be relevant on the big stages.
 

oldmanfan

Hall of Fame
@BeatlesFan
@Lleytonstation

These are just your interpretations of what you think Fedr is thinking. They're valid, just as my interpretations are too. ;)

On this, I agree more with @TearTheRoofOff . And my take is that he won't retire next year unless injury forces him to. Why? Well, he's still too good, and he happens to just bageled Albot earlier today, a guy who should've beaten Fedr in Miami19 (it was actually Fedr's hardest match there). But even more relevant is that, to me, Fedr seems to be a very committed guy to his sponsors. I don't take him for a guy who just signs deals and runs away with the money (i.e. collecting checks knowing full well he'll no longer be a pro player, when his endorsements are most effective). He just signed a 5yr contract extension with Jura, and he just signed a 5yr contract with a new exo competition that starts later this year in December in China. Before anyone scoffs and say 'but it's an exo', do keep in mind that Fedr is using this exo as a prep for 2020 (and by extension for 2021 thru possibly 2023). This new exo event seems to be more than one match (I'm not sure on details yet) , and it happens right before the new year (Dec 27-29), just 2 days before 'old' Hopman Cup start date. As we know, Fedr did use Hopman Cup as prep the last 3 years, but there is no HC2020 edition, so this exo is a good replacement.

Yes, Fedr will eventually retire. But that statement is equally correct if it was said in 2009, instead of today. But you guys are reading too much into what you think Fedr is saying, instead of what he is 'actually' saying, which is him indicating that he'll play a few more years. He has just said this exact thing 2-3 times in the last month alone.
 

oldmanfan

Hall of Fame
Looks like a fun draw. Will wawa be playing? Odd if he does. If Fed wins Basel I am fine with him skipping it. Either way, first time in a while this tourney looks to be fun.
I looked at the draw and mentally facepalmed. Tried to see if Fedr got shafted, but then realized that there is no tough draw with the players present o_O. That's not to say that the Big3 will win everything, but man those are some weak players.

Oh, one more thing. Fedr will win the trifecta to be poised for re-entry into world #1 after AO20 :D.
 
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