Federer News

oldmanfan

Hall of Fame
The talent is still there obviously, and will be for another 5+ years. Unfortunately, his consistency is what is hurting him as he ages.

But if he can lump things together for 2 weeks... or get through the first week and put 3 good matches together. Oh man that would be awesome.
inb4 Fedr becomes the Oldererest #1/YE#1 in 2020 :happydevil: (don't rolleyes, he really had a shot this past year bc had he won that CP, the rest of the year would look very different).
 

oldmanfan

Hall of Fame
I like your positivity... but...

One slam or Olympics will make me happy and will be considered massive success if he does. In fact, finishing top 5 will be huge in my opinion.
Agreed on all three. I'm just way more optimistic going into 2020 than 2019, so it would be a huge surprise to me if Fedr doesn't end 2020 as top 5. Heck, I'd be surprised if he won't be top 3.

I was talking to my relative today about how some tennis fans seem to not see the decline of Djokr, and to a lesser extent Nadl, that 2020 and beyond won't be a walk in the park for them.

Nadl has been scraping wins since after WB19, but he's definitely showing cracks since then (should've lost Montreal19 to The Fog, and would've lost USO19 finals had Medv not spot him 2 sets before deciding to fight for it). But Nadl was handling the youngsters better than Fedovic so far, so he's got that on his side.

re: Djokr, notice how he's been losing way too many matches that he used to easily win (or was in a winning position), a sign of him losing a-half-step and/or focus. Also, as the greatest returner in history, in their last 3 Fedovic meetings, Djokr has not managed to win a set from Fedr by a break up, while the opposite is true each time Fedr wins a set (i.e. Djokr won 5 sets only by TBs, while Fedr won 5 sets by at least 1 break). This showed that Djokr was more clutch while Fedr was the better player. Case in point, their WTF19 3RR match. The 64 63 scoreline looked close, but the match wasn't. In their future meetings, Djokr won't always stay clutch, while being the overall better player in their matches is a good place to be in for Fedr. This is why I'm optimistic that Fedr will do as well or better than Nadalovic in 2020. 8-B
 
Agreed on all three. I'm just way more optimistic going into 2020 than 2019, so it would be a huge surprise to me if Fedr doesn't end 2020 as top 5. Heck, I'd be surprised if he won't be top 3.

I was talking to my relative today about how some tennis fans seem to not see the decline of Djokr, and to a lesser extent Nadl, that 2020 and beyond won't be a walk in the park for them.

Nadl has been scraping wins since after WB19, but he's definitely showing cracks since then (should've lost Montreal19 to The Fog, and would've lost USO19 finals had Medv not spot him 2 sets before deciding to fight for it). But Nadl was handling the youngsters better than Fedovic so far, so he's got that on his side.

re: Djokr, notice how he's been losing way too many matches that he used to easily win (or was in a winning position), a sign of him losing a-half-step and/or focus. Also, as the greatest returner in history, in their last 3 Fedovic meetings, Djokr has not managed to win a set from Fedr by a break up, while the opposite is true each time Fedr wins a set (i.e. Djokr won 5 sets only by TBs, while Fedr won 5 sets by at least 1 break). This showed that Djokr was more clutch while Fedr was the better player. Case in point, their WTF19 3RR match. The 64 63 scoreline looked close, but the match wasn't. In their future meetings, Djokr won't always stay clutch, while being the overall better player in their matches is a good place to be in for Fedr. This is why I'm optimistic that Fedr will do as well or better than Nadalovic in 2020. 8-B
I agree that Djoker has lost a level, but honestly think Rafa has got better. Look at his HC results. Now this is results based for Rafa (opposite for Djoker).

But the problem is the level drop is less than the increase level in the tour as a whole. Is the tour getting better? Yes. But slowly. Is Rafa and djoker going to continue to decline? Yes, but at an even slower pace.

This is why I still see those 2 finishing top 2. Fed will need better results at the AO and USO and that is with winning a masters or 2 and keeping a SF at the FO and WC.

Basically you are saying Fed will win a slam and go deep at all the others. I just don't see that. I see one, maybe two deep runs at slams and a drop in masters performance.
 

oldmanfan

Hall of Fame
I agree that Djoker has lost a level, but honestly think Rafa has got better. Look at his HC results. Now this is results based for Rafa (opposite for Djoker).

But the problem is the level drop is less than the increase level in the tour as a whole. Is the tour getting better? Yes. But slowly. Is Rafa and djoker going to continue to decline? Yes, but at an even slower pace.

This is why I still see those 2 finishing top 2. Fed will need better results at the AO and USO and that is with winning a masters or 2 and keeping a SF at the FO and WC.

Basically you are saying Fed will win a slam and go deep at all the others. I just don't see that. I see one, maybe two deep runs at slams and a drop in masters performance.
Fair enough. I'm more positive about Fedr than that, and this makes it interesting to see if 2020 plays out more like your views or mines.

There have been 3 main surprises for me this year:

1) Nadl's consistency since 2017, and this year from Rome19 in particular. But again, a few of those match-wins could've been losses, so the decline is there.
2) How much Djokr declined, saved by clutchness and pushing-tennis, thus reinforcing what I've always thought of his level since his comeback from WB18, (i.e. not that high, and definitely not Ultron level).

3) How solid overall Fedr has been (he wasn't far from a 6 titles season bc IW19/WB19), and that his 'current top-level' is still better than anyone else's on tour (see: WB19 SF/F and a few other 2019 matches). We Fedfans just need him to get there, or close-to-there, more often. It's crazy, and overlooked, but had a couple of things went his way this year, 2019 could've been a 2-3 slam year for Fedr.
How so?
a) RG19 SF, had it not been for the sand-storm conditions blunting his lower-margin game, forcing him to play it safe, I think Fedr has a better than 50% chance to beat Nadl (did you see how he took out a great Stanimal in the QF in normal conditions?), and I would favor Fedr over Thiem in the finals.
b) WB19, 2 CPs!!... grrrrrrrrr.
c) USO19, he was the favorite after Djokr got Stanimaled, but that darn stiff neck! grrrrrrr.

So close to 2-3 slams, yet so far....
 
So close to 2-3 slams, yet so far....
That is the thing though, he was so close yet so far this year, I don't see it getting better.

In all fairness, if Fed can play this level again this next year, he could win a slam, but really for Fed, I think it both looks like we view it the same but with different results.

What I mean is, I think we both agree he will put himself in positions to win big tourneys, but I see it less likely that he actually pulls it off than you do.

That being said, hope is all we can ask from a 38 year old legend right? I am good with that. :p
 

oldmanfan

Hall of Fame
That is the thing though, he was so close yet so far this year, I don't see it getting better.

In all fairness, if Fed can play this level again this next year, he could win a slam, but really for Fed, I think it both looks like we view it the same but with different results.

What I mean is, I think we both agree he will put himself in positions to win big tourneys, but I see it less likely that he actually pulls it off than you do.

That being said, hope is all we can ask from a 38 year old legend right? I am good with that. :p
Tru dat.

It's just that... I was less optimistic going into 2019, yet Fedr was close to reaching #1 and winning 1-3 slams. I'm now more optimistic going into 2020....so GCYGS? :unsure: :happydevil:8-B
 

MeatTornado

Legend
a) RG19 SF, had it not been for the sand-storm conditions blunting his lower-margin game, forcing him to play it safe, I think Fedr has a better than 50% chance to beat Nadl (did you see how he took out a great Stanimal in the QF in normal conditions?), and I would favor Fedr over Thiem in the finals.
There was definite potential for a 2 slam year, but unfortunately I can't agree about RG at all. In perfect conditions Fed had a chance to take a set and push Rafa like an inverse of their Wimby match, but definitely not over 50% chance of winning on clay.

Roger turned about the h2h in recent years due to 2 things: Rafa's decreased speed & Roger's improved backhand. Both those advantages are neutralized on clay.
When Fed starts unloading backhands on clay, Rafa isn't even phased by them. He has that extra split-second to redirect them wherever he wants. On grass or hardcourts those FHs would likely be in the net.
 

oldmanfan

Hall of Fame
There was definite potential for a 2 slam year, but unfortunately I can't agree about RG at all. In perfect conditions Fed had a chance to take a set and push Rafa like an inverse of their Wimby match, but definitely not over 50% chance of winning on clay.

Roger turned about the h2h in recent years due to 2 things: Rafa's decreased speed & Roger's improved backhand. Both those advantages are neutralized on clay.
When Fed starts unloading backhands on clay, Rafa isn't even phased by them. He has that extra split-second to redirect them wherever he wants. On grass or hardcourts those FHs would likely be in the net.
I see your point. But I just see it differently. Interesting that your included gif was of a point that would give Fedr a 3-0 lead in set 2. And that was in conditions that neutralized Fedr's game way, way more than it does to Nadl's, so it's not farfetched to imagine Fedr would do even better had he not been so neturalized by sandstorm conditions. I think Fedr takes that match in 4 sets had it been normal conditions like in the QF. Fedr was in better form thru the QF (and don't forget that Nadl's mentality of not having a win over Fedr since 2014). I said something similar after the match, in the match thread I think, and a Nadl fan scoffed at it. Well, a month later, Nadl played at an even higher level at WB19 SF, and Fedr beat him in 4 sets (yes, I know it was not clay, but Nadl played better than at RG19 SF...).
 

Third Serve

Hall of Fame
Roger turned about the h2h in recent years due to 2 things: Rafa's decreased speed & Roger's improved backhand. Both those advantages are neutralized on clay.
When Fed starts unloading backhands on clay, Rafa isn't even phased by them. He has that extra split-second to redirect them wherever he wants. On grass or hardcourts those FHs would likely be in the net.
And that’s really what happened just a few weeks later.
 
This is quite literally the only corner of the internet where I'm considered not pro-Fed enough lol.
I look at this thread as a conversation and discussion of Fed News as well as a congregation of Fed fans that can speak freely about Fed without being judged.

Some are more StrongRule and some are more Sport, as we all have different styles of fandom. I am usually upbeat (but not on the level of @oldmanfan ;)) , but I try and be realistic as well. But really I just try not to get my hopes up too much and try with the mindset of everything is "cherry" on top... but it can be hard to do.
 

Robert Baratheon

Professional
I look at this thread as a conversation and discussion of Fed News as well as a congregation of Fed fans that can speak freely about Fed without being judged.

Some are more StrongRule and some are more Sport, as we all have different styles of fandom. I am usually upbeat (but not on the level of @oldmanfan ;)) , but I try and be realistic as well. But really I just try not to get my hopes up too much and try with the mindset of everything is "cherry" on top... but it can be hard to do.
Honestly I come here for @oldmanfan poasts lol.
I mean I can't be as optimistic like him and sometimes I am even annoyed by his optimism but at the end of the day I like to soak in his optimism and feel good about Roger's chances lol.
And also oldman is really a great source of news. Because of him I don't even need to google Roger anymore lol.
 
Honestly I come here for @oldmanfan poasts lol.
I mean I can't be as optimistic like him and sometimes I am even annoyed by his optimism but at the end of the day I like to soak in his optimism and feel good about Roger's chances lol.
And also oldman is really a great source of news. Because of him I don't even need to google Roger anymore lol.
Haha that is how I feel. No more searching for stuff. I just assume I will run across it as someone like @oldmanfan will post it for me. Should I be paying @oldmanfan a service fee?

However, I did miss the Zverev Fed match start the other day... need a Fed News "update" to fix this bug.
 

Robert Baratheon

Professional
Haha that is how I feel. No more searching for stuff. I just assume I will run across it as someone like @oldmanfan will post it for me. Should I be paying @oldmanfan a service fee?

However, I did miss the Zverev Fed match start the other day... need a Fed News "update" to fix this bug.
It's the same work that @Enceladus does for Novak and Octo for Rafa though I am not interested in what underwear Rafa wears and which restaurant he is frequenting these days :sneaky: :)
 
I see your point. But I just see it differently. Interesting that your included gif was of a point that would give Fedr a 3-0 lead in set 2. And that was in conditions that neutralized Fedr's game way, way more than it does to Nadl's, so it's not farfetched to imagine Fedr would do even better had he not been so neturalized by sandstorm conditions. I think Fedr takes that match in 4 sets had it been normal conditions like in the QF. Fedr was in better form thru the QF (and don't forget that Nadl's mentality of not having a win over Fedr since 2014). I said something similar after the match, in the match thread I think, and a Nadl fan scoffed at it. Well, a month later, Nadl played at an even higher level at WB19 SF, and Fedr beat him in 4 sets (yes, I know it was not clay, but Nadl played better than at RG19 SF...).
While I do think Fed has it in him to win a slam this next year, he will have to be better against the young guys. Do you see him doing better against the younger guys next year, or do you see that trend continuing?

Big losses to Thiem, Tsits, and Zverev this past year? If he can eliminate some of those losses, I do see more success this next year as I don't fear Rafa and djoker like I have in recent past.
 

oldmanfan

Hall of Fame
While I do think Fed has it in him to win a slam this next year, he will have to be better against the young guys. Do you see him doing better against the younger guys next year, or do you see that trend continuing?

Big losses to Thiem, Tsits, and Zverev this past year? If he can eliminate some of those losses, I do see more success this next year as I don't fear Rafa and djoker like I have in recent past.
I think if they and Fedr play at similar levels, Fedr wins. If Fedr is in top-flight, they stand no chance (this happens when Fedr swings freely, instead of his more recent conservative patches, i.e. keep getting BPs against Tsits, but keep failing to convert, going 1/12 BP, iirc). It's not as if they consistently makes it to The Old Man, and they certainly can/will lose to lesser players. They will certainly notch wins here and there when they catch Fedr choking, playing bad, or refusing BPs. And any of those scenarios can, and has happened. But we only need him to win a few of those close matches and big titles will be in the bag ;). Remember, it's not as if Thiem/Z/Tsits are immune to those scenarios themselves. 8-B
 

ForehandRF

Hall of Fame
The question is, can Fed be consistent in a slam ? Or he will play a few good matches and then his form will drop out of nowhere ? With him you never know, it's like sometimes we witness different versions of him throughout a tournament.
 

Breakpointerer

Hall of Fame
The question is, can Fed be consistent in a slam ? Or he will play a few good matches and then his form will drop out of nowhere ? With him you never know, it's like sometimes we witness different versions of him throughout a tournament.
Yeah. The level is still unquestionably there, but the consistency isn't and that will keep getting harder, as we saw with the recent Djoker/Tsitsi matches. If he can find a way to string together two weeks of good form, he can still win another slam.
 

MeatTornado

Legend
Interesting to see how low 2015 is considering how renowned his serving was that year. I'd be interested to do the math and how many it is per match for each season.

The huge drop from 2018 to 2019 is also really odd since I'm pretty sure he played more matches this year. He added in 3 clay tournaments and skipped Stuttgart, so it should be at least 2 more tournys.

Edit: I just glanced through his year-by-year stats and it looks like 2019 was the highest 1st serve % he's ever had (only 1%, but still). So maybe he was serving safer and not going for as many aces this year? I didn't really notice throughout the year if he wasn't going for the lines as much.
 
Interesting to see how low 2015 is considering how renowned his serving was that year. I'd be interested to do the math and how many it is per match for each season.

The huge drop from 2018 to 2019 is also really odd since I'm pretty sure he played more matches this year. He added in 3 clay tournaments and skipped Stuttgart, so it should be at least 2 more tournys.
Less likely to get aces on clay verse grass?
 
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