Federer on track to be seeded #1 at Wimbledon

underground

underground

G.O.A.T.
If we look at the so called "Race to Wimbledon", we have right now:

1. Federer 5060
2. Nadal 3730
3. Dimitrov 3460
4. Zverev 2350
5. Goffin 2200
6. Cilic 2190

Adding the extra grass points from 2017 Eastbourne onwards and 75% of the best tournament from 2016 Wimbledon- 2017 Halle/Queen's:

1. Federer 7600
2. Nadal 3943.75
3. Dimitrov 3775
4. Cilic 3660
5. Zverev 2755
6. Querrey 2555

Over the first half of 2017 before Wimbledon, Rafa outperformed Fed by 2370 points (with grass inflation included that would be effectively 1870 points). So Fed is overwhelmingly favourite to take the top seed for a 24th time at a GS at Wimbledon 2018, which would be the first time since USO 2012, and would make the timespan of being seed #1 a whopping 14 years!

I think if this happens it will also eclipse Agassi as oldest #1 seed at a slam (USO 2003)? But someone might want to fact check this.

And yeah I just procrastinated to make the calculations up with just another potential Fed statistic, you can now all move on. :p

EDIT: It's not Agassi, see post below.
 
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buscemi said:
Rosewall was the #1 seed at the 1973 Australian Open at age 38.

[Edit: And the #1 seed at the 1976 Australian Open at age 41].
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Of course, these were during the "dark ages" of the AO, when the Australian players (bar Laver) were about the only ones showing at Kooyong Park. Still, pretty impressive, but not as much as with a full field, of course (Rosewall was ranked #6 in '73, and also started '76 at #6, but had fallen to #14 by the end of the year). Today, this would be about as impressive as being seeded #1 in Halle or at Queen's, I suppose.

As for Federer, no way he doesn't get the #1 seed at Wimbledon. He'd have to basically not win a match until then while Nadal defends all his points from the first six months of the year, and that isn't happening.
 
I didn't get the calculation. Can someone explain it to me please?
Are Wimbledon's seedings done differently than other slams? Please enlighten me.
 
Abhinandan said:
I didn't get the calculation. Can someone explain it to me please?
Are Wimbledon's seedings done differently than other slams? Please enlighten me.
Click to expand...
Gentlemen's Seeding Formula
The seeds are the top 32 players on the ATP Ranking list, BUT then rearranged on a surface-based system. Since 2002 a seeding committee has not been required for the Gentlemen’s Singles following an agreement made with the ATP. The seeding order is determined using an objective and transparent system to reflect more accurately an individual player’s grass court achievements. It is based on giving additional credit for grass court performance in the two year period immediately before the date used for seeding for The Championships. The formula is:

- Take the ATP Ranking points at 26 June 2017
- Add 100% of the points earned for all grass court tournaments in the immediate past 12 months period prior to 26 June 2017.
- Add 75% of the points earned for the best grass court tournament in the 12 months prior to that

Ladies' Seeding
The seeding order follows the WTA ranking list, except where in the opinion of the committee, a change is necessary to produce a balanced draw. This year, there have been no changes.
 
pame said:
Gentlemen's Seeding Formula
The seeds are the top 32 players on the ATP Ranking list, BUT then rearranged on a surface-based system. Since 2002 a seeding committee has not been required for the Gentlemen’s Singles following an agreement made with the ATP. The seeding order is determined using an objective and transparent system to reflect more accurately an individual player’s grass court achievements. It is based on giving additional credit for grass court performance in the two year period immediately before the date used for seeding for The Championships. The formula is:

- Take the ATP Ranking points at 26 June 2017
- Add 100% of the points earned for all grass court tournaments in the immediate past 12 months period prior to 26 June 2017.
- Add 75% of the points earned for the best grass court tournament in the 12 months prior to that

Ladies' Seeding
The seeding order follows the WTA ranking list, except where in the opinion of the committee, a change is necessary to produce a balanced draw. This year, there have been no changes.
Click to expand...
Thanks.
How does Federer and Nadal come to 7600 and 3943 respectively? Can you do the breakdown?
 
Abhinandan said:
Thanks.
How does Federer and Nadal come to 7600 and 3943 respectively? Can you do the breakdown?
Click to expand...
Not now.. it's 4.40 am here and I'm headed back to bed. The OP should have the figures to hand, if you msg him. Otherwise you can bookmark this site - it will have the WMB seeding calculations next year; right now it just has the ATP rankings and set up for the 2018 race etc.
http://www.openerarankings.com
 
Abhinandan said:
I didn't get the calculation. Can someone explain it to me please?
Are Wimbledon's seedings done differently than other slams? Please enlighten me.
Click to expand...

An "easy" way to think about this is: before Wimbledon, Federer will (artificially, just for the W seeding) add to his ATP ranking total 2,000 points (+100% for his 2017 Wimby victory) + 375 (75% of Halle 2017) + 540 (75% of Wimby 2016) + 100% of points won in Stuttgart (should he go there) & Halle 2018. So, whatever happens, his points total will get bumped by almost 3,000 points (and maybe even more), which means he would need to lose a truckload of points while Nadal defends everything from the first six months of 2017 not to be seeded 1 (Nadal would basically need to be about 3,000 points ahead (more or less depending on their results at Halle/Queen's, plus Nadal got a few extra points from his R4 result at W last year) when the seedings are decided).
 
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Red Rick said:
Murray could basically not play until Wimbledon and be seeded amiright?
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No, don't think so. His actual ranking will plummet somewhere around 200 in the world. Too far off the top 32 to get a seed.
 
zagor said:
Nadal saves tennis yet again.
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Actually Federer winning 2GS and beating Nadal 4x saved tennis because Federer still holds what’s dear to Nadal and his fans. The no. 1 is a hallow prize when Federer never was after the no. 1 ranking in the first place.
 
merlinpinpin said:
An "easy" way to think about this is: before Wimbledon, Federer will (artificially, just for the W seeding) add to his ATP ranking total 2,000 points (+100% for his 2017 Wimby victory) + 375 (75% of Halle 2017) + 540 (75% of Wimby 2016) + 100% of points won in Stuttgart (should he go there) & Halle 2018. So, whatever happens, his points total will get bumped by almost 3,000 points (and maybe even more), which means he would need to lose a truckload of points while Nadal defends everything from the first six months of 2017 not to be seeded 1 (Nadal would basically need to be about 3,000 points ahead (more or less depending on their results at Halle/Queen's, plus Nadal got a few extra points from his R4 result at W last year) when the seedings are decided).
Click to expand...

You only add 75% of the best result from 2016 Eastbourne - 2017 Halle, so the 375 points from Halle 2017 won't be counted since Wimby 2016 offers higher points.

Russeljones said:
Federer loses in Rd3 of the AO, you're done.

Get real.
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Federer got 3250 points before Wimby in 2015, the year where he did lose in R3 at the AO, Rafa will have to repeat this year's results again just to catch up to Fed, even then he's at a disadvantage with the grass inflation points in the warm-up tournaments.

Get real.
 
Last edited:
pame said:
Gentlemen's Seeding Formula
The seeds are the top 32 players on the ATP Ranking list, BUT then rearranged on a surface-based system. Since 2002 a seeding committee has not been required for the Gentlemen’s Singles following an agreement made with the ATP. The seeding order is determined using an objective and transparent system to reflect more accurately an individual player’s grass court achievements. It is based on giving additional credit for grass court performance in the two year period immediately before the date used for seeding for The Championships. The formula is:

- Take the ATP Ranking points at 26 June 2017
- Add 100% of the points earned for all grass court tournaments in the immediate past 12 months period prior to 26 June 2017.
- Add 75% of the points earned for the best grass court tournament in the 12 months prior to that

Ladies' Seeding
The seeding order follows the WTA ranking list, except where in the opinion of the committee, a change is necessary to produce a balanced draw. This year, there have been no changes.
Click to expand...

Has anyone really answered the question as to why the women's doesn't follow the seeding formula?

I've always thought it was because there were so many upsets on the women's side that it didn't matter where most of them were seeded.
 
Red Rick said:
Murray could basically not play until Wimbledon and be seeded amiright?
Click to expand...

I just stumbled upon the Wimbledon seedings formula page again, note the bold part:

"The seeds are the top 32 players on the ATP Ranking list, BUT then rearranged on a surface-based system. Since 2002 a seeding committee has not been required for the Gentlemen’s Singles following an agreement made with the ATP. The seeding order is determined using an objective and transparent system to reflect more accurately an individual player’s grass court achievements. It is based on giving additional credit for grass court performance in the two year period immediately before the date used for seeding for The Championships. The formula is:

- Take the ATP Ranking points at 26 June 2017
- Add 100% of the points earned for all grass court tournaments in the immediate past 12 months period prior to 26 June 2017.
- Add 75% of the points earned for the best grass court tournament in the 12 months prior to that"

So to be seeded, you have to be first inside the top 32, then WITHIN the top 32 the seeds get jumbled up based on the surface-based formula.

It also explains why on this page, the likes of Murray, Djokovic, Raonic, Muller, don't have a seed next to their name, because they're currently outside of the top 32 in the race to Wimbledon (excluding the extra grass points). http://www.openerarankings.com/Home?Race=3

Which means it's totally possible to get a Big 4 match in the first round! :eek:
 
underground said:
I just stumbled upon the Wimbledon seedings formula page again, note the bold part:

"The seeds are the top 32 players on the ATP Ranking list, BUT then rearranged on a surface-based system. Since 2002 a seeding committee has not been required for the Gentlemen’s Singles following an agreement made with the ATP. The seeding order is determined using an objective and transparent system to reflect more accurately an individual player’s grass court achievements. It is based on giving additional credit for grass court performance in the two year period immediately before the date used for seeding for The Championships. The formula is:

- Take the ATP Ranking points at 26 June 2017
- Add 100% of the points earned for all grass court tournaments in the immediate past 12 months period prior to 26 June 2017.
- Add 75% of the points earned for the best grass court tournament in the 12 months prior to that"

So to be seeded, you have to be first inside the top 32, then WITHIN the top 32 the seeds get jumbled up based on the surface-based formula.

It also explains why on this page, the likes of Murray, Djokovic, Raonic, Muller, don't have a seed next to their name, because they're currently outside of the top 32 in the race to Wimbledon (excluding the extra grass points). http://www.openerarankings.com/Home?Race=3

Which means it's totally possible to get a Big 4 match in the first round! :eek:
Click to expand...
I want Murray to start improving his grass record vs Nadal
 
Would Fed, Cilic, Nadal, Zverev , Delpo be top 5 ? I see that as end of year ranking as well with Djok, Goffin and Anderson rounding up the next 3 slots
 
If Nadal wins Roland Garros, how close to him would/could Federer get if he were to win in Stuttgart? 250 wouldn't be enough to overtake, right?
 
aman92 said:
How does it matter anyway...Nadal and Federer are likely to be seeded 1 and 2 for Wimbledon, makes no difference to the kind of draws they can get
Click to expand...
#1 seed always gets home court throughout the playoffs.
 
Sudacafan said:
He won’t, Nadal is not losing at RG.
Click to expand...

Even if Nadal actually did retain #1 until Wimbledon (which isn't a guarantee because of Stuttgart and Halle), it has it's own seeding system that would almost certainly make Federer the #1 seed anyway since Federer is defending champion (and SF in 2016 which factors in I believe), and Nadal's recent grass results are bad to say the least.

Not that it matters since there's no difference between being 1 or 2 anyway.
 
Steve0904 said:
Even if Nadal actually did retain #1 until Wimbledon (which isn't a guarantee because of Stuttgart and Halle), it has it's own seeding system that would almost certainly make Federer the #1 seed anyway since Federer is defending champion (and SF in 2016 which factors in I believe), and Nadal's recent grass results are bad to say the least.

Not that it matters since there's no difference between being 1 or 2 anyway.
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It's unlikely that Fed is going to be booted in his first match on grass like last year, so it's pretty much a given that Fed will take back the #1 ranking from Nadal at some point during the grass season.

The question is whether Fed can win Wimbledon again (assuming Nadal wins RG as expected)--he's the overwhelming favourite but upsets happen more often on grass than they do on clay.
 
Bender said:
It's unlikely that Fed is going to be booted in his first match on grass like last year, so it's pretty much a given that Fed will take back the #1 ranking from Nadal at some point during the grass season.

The question is whether Fed can win Wimbledon again (assuming Nadal wins RG as expected)--he's the overwhelming favourite but upsets happen more often on grass than they do on clay.
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If Fed is going to be #1 it has to happen in Stuttgart since he won Halle and Wimbledon last year. So I think he only needs to win 1 match there (maybe 2?) to get it back?
 
Rafa is scheduled to play Queens, which can also impact the rankings. In any case, it's almost a certainty Fed will be seeded #1 at Wimbledon, as he should be. But Fed has 500 points to defend in Halle and it's doubtful Rafa could win Queens.
 
It doesn't really matter whether Federer is seeded 1 or 2 at Wimbledon.

Whether he'll have the number one ranking at that time or not is a different story. We could likely see more see-sawing of the number 1 ranking as we have in recent months.

Nadal basically has to defend the French to keep this competitive. If he does that, he can still lose it if Fed wins Stuttgart. But then Fed could lose it again if Nadal makes the SF of queens.
 
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