Federer-Safin 2004 TMC Houston stats

TheAssassin

Legend
Roger Federer defeated Marat Safin 6-3 7-6(18).

Aces:
Federer: 8 (3,5) - hawkeye showed 2 in the 2nd set should have been called out
Safin: 6 (0,6)

Service winners:
Federer: 0
Safin: 1 (0,1)

Double faults:
Federer: 0
Safin: 2 (1,1) - his first and last service point of the match

Forehand winners:
Federer: 11 (5,6) - includes 2 passing shots and 1 return winner
Safin: 5 (3,2) - hawkeye showed 1 in the 2nd set (tiebreak) should have been called out, includes 2 return winners

Backhand winners:
Federer: 6 (3,3) - includes 4 passing shots and a dropshot winner
Safin: 6 (0,6) - includes 1 return winner, hawkeye showed it should have been called out

Forehand wing unforced errors:
Federer: 10 (1,9) - includes 2 volley errors in the 2nd set
Safin: 16 (3,13) - includes 2 volley errors, 1 in each set

Backhand wing unforced errors:
Federer: 14 (5,9) - includes 1 volley error in the 2nd set
Safin: 16 (8,8) - includes 1 volley error in the 1st set, hawkeye showed that 1 in the 1st set should have been a winner

Forehand wing forced errors:
Federer: 17 (6,11)
Safin: 12 (3,9)

Backhand wing forced errors:
Federer: 14 (3,11)
Safin: 14 (3,11)

Forehand volley winners:
Federer: 0
Safin: 2 (1,1)

Backhand volley winners:
Federer: 0
Safin: 2 (1,1)

Overheads:
Federer: 2 (0,2)
Safin: 2 (1,1)

Net points:
Federer: 14/18 = 78% (5/5 = 100% , 9/13 = 69%)
Safin: 14/27 = 51% (4/11 = 36% , 10/16 = 63%)

Number of service points:
Federer: 81 (25 ,56)
Safin: 86 (25, 61)

1st serves in:
Federer: 50/81 = 62% (16/25 = 64% , 34/56 = 61%)
Safin: 57/86 = 66% (15/25 = 60% , 42/61 = 69%)

1st serve points won:
Federer: 39/50 = 78% (14/16 = 88% , 25/34 = 74%)
Safin: 43/57 = 75% (11/15 = 73% , 32/42 = 76%)

2nd serve points won:
Federer: 19/31 = 61% (6/9 = 67% , 13/22 = 59%)
Safin: 13/29 = 43% (4/10 = 40% , 9/19 = 47%)

Total service points won:
Federer: 58/81 = 72% (20/25 = 80% , 38/56 = 68%)
Safin: 56/86 = 65% (15/25 = 60% , 41/61 = 67%)

Return points won:
Federer: 30/86 = 35% (10/25 = 40% , 20/61 = 33%)
Safin: 23/81 = 28% (5/25 = 20% , 18/56 = 32%)

Unreturned serves (including aces and service winners):
Federer: 24 (5,19)
Safin: 25 (5,20)

Percentage of serves unreturned:
Federer: 24/81 = 30% (5/25 = 20% , 19/56 = 33%)
Safin: 25/86 = 29% (5/25 = 20% , 20/61 = 33%)

Break point chances:
Federer: 2/6 (1/3, 1/3)
Safin: 1/3 (0/0, 1/3)

Number of breaks/total number of games with break points:
Federer: 2/4 (1/2, 1/2)
Safin: 1/2 (0/0, 1/2)

Total winners:
Federer: 28 (11,17)
Safin: 24 (5,19)

Forced errors:
Federer: 31 (9,22)
Safin: 26 (6,20)

Unforced errors:
Federer: 24 (6,18)
Safin: 34 (12,22)

Points:
Federer: 88 (30,58)
Safin: 79 (20,59)

Comments/observations:

The things I forgot to do this time was splitting unreturned serves to 1st and 2nd, as well as keeping track of unforced return errors. From my recollection, there haven't been many of them.

There were two separate periods of few games where one of the players dominated. For Federer it was the opening few games of the match. Held easily and broke to love thanks to two stunning backhand passing shots and a couple of errors from Safin. He won 12 of the first 13 points in a blink of an eye.

Everything was clicking for Federer in that set, very clean tennis with only an occasional backhand miss, but those just didn't happen often enough to put him in any trouble. Safin composed himself after a bad opening and did well to keep it just a one break deficit.

The Russian's serving wasn't good at the start but the percentage went up as the set approached its finish. Federer on the other hand was consistently on the similar high level for the whole of the opening set. Held far more easily, which has been the case for the whole of the tournament where he was only broken once in three round robin matches.

Another contrast between the two players was their conversion at the net. Federer won all of the points there in the 1st set, Safin didn't win even half of them. A lot of credit goes to Federer who found the openings himself several times. Safin approached the net quite more often, but that is also down to Federer lurking him there and then delivering a deadly passing shot a few times, something that could be even considered one of the Swiss' signature moves during his best years.

The opening few games of the 2nd set were the complete opposite, the roles changed quickly. After Federer wasted one of the break opportunities by making a mistake at the net, it all started going Safin's way. After having no aces and backhand winners at all in the 1st set, he finally started to hit a few in the 2nd while also forcing more errors from Federer, who on the other hand already accumulated as many unforced errors in the first couple of games of the 2nd set as he did in the entire 1st set.

Conversion at the net also completely flipped. Safin was finishing points better, while after being flawless there Federer lost 3 consecutive points at the net and showed signs of frustration which already started to become rare at that point of his career. Federer's missed volley on a break point in the opening game was the turning point. This is the period where the Russian dominated, as he completely erased the points deficit from the beginning of the match and even took the lead when he was going for a double break.

After failing to convert break points to serve for the 2nd set, Safin got punished. Federer made some great returns, considerably lowered the number of errors compared to the beginning of the 2nd set and quickly got back on serve after Safin hit a forehand in the net. The final few games mostly featured convincing holds from both and some stunning winners, with Safin's backhands down the line and Federer's exquisite volley dropshot and passing shot standing out. Good serving bailed both players out of trouble when the other was threatening to make the decisive break, Fed at 4-4 and Safin at 5-6.

As far as all the break points go, Safin made the 1st serve on 4/6 break points he faced. He saved 4 of them, 2 thanks to an ace and unreturned serve and 2 thanks to Federer's unforced errors (forehand and forehand volley). He was broken two times, once after hitting a 2nd serve and making an backhand unforced error and once after hitting a 1st serve and making a forehand unforced error. Federer made 1/3 1st serves on break points he faced. He saved 2 of them, 1 thanks to Safin's forehand unforced error and 1 thanks to an unreturned serve. He was broken once, after hitting a 2nd serve and making a backhand unforced error.

We all know the tiebreak. Long and high quality, easily one of the greatest of all time. One has to wonder how did Safin not prevail in it. Overall his backhand improved tremendously compared to the 1st set. He made the same number of unforced errors despite the 2nd set being twice as long and won a lot more points with it. But back to the tiebreak. Safin made the 1st serve in all of his first 10 tiebreak service points. On more than one set point he was in total control but Federer's defense restarted the rally so many times that eventually it resulted in errors from Safin. The only shots that weren't at their finest in the tiebreak were both guy's forehands. A few unforced errors were made by both but that's forgivable considering how many points the tiebreak had. Federer improved his tiebreak record to a stunning 21-5 for the 2004 season while Safin made his worse by going 24-27. All in all, a very entertaining encounter, one of those where it was a shame that we didn't get to see a deciding set.

What impressed me the most, which doesn't apply just to this meeting but some other ones too as well as these two players in general when they are in the zone, is how even when the opponent hits with great depth, hardly ever sending any shorter balls, they still manage to turn everything into aggressive play. Overall, it was an excellent warm-up for the legendary match we got in Australia next year. If you ask me, this is the great rivalry we never got, and all the blame for not fulfilling that potential goes to Safin.
 
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TheAssassin

Legend
@TheAssassin :

The UEs count seems a bit high, no ?
Do you have the official stats anywhere ?
I rewatched some of the errors several times when I wasn't sure at first if they were forced or not, don't make me do this all over again. :D

Some stats were shown by ESPN throughout the match. The winners-errors differential was displayed at some point of the tiebreak when it was near its end and it's actually the errors count that was similar to mine. They had clearly more winners (Fed was over 30), must have categorized more unreturned serves as service winners than I did, I was strict about them - only if the returner barely got the racquet on. They also had clearly more net approaches than me because they counted any kind of presence at the net as a net approach, even when the opponent didn't even get to the ball that the player hit before approaching. That's the only reasonable explanation.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
The winner to error ratio looks similar to their meeting at 05 AO.
I was looking more at the AMs based on the UE count. (Krosero's count in AO 05 had more service winners than official count, so didn't want to get in W-UE ratio)

TMC 2004 SF :
Federer : 17.96%
Safin : 12.57%

at AO 2005 SF:
Federer : 20.76%
Safin : 18.99%

Houston was a faster, more enabling environment for hitting, so would expect higher AMs than at the AO if quality were about the same level.
Safin was better in AO 05, but Federer was at about the same level I think.

in the TMC 04 final that I did recently,

Federer's AM = (62-26)/102 = 35.29%
Hewitt's AM = (40-26)/102 = 13.73%

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/federer-hewitt-tmc-2004-final-stats.599957/

Hewitt's AM in the final being a tad higher than Safin's in the semi definitely raises eyebrows.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
I rewatched some of the errors several times when I wasn't sure at first if they were forced or not, don't make me do this all over again. :D
:D

Some stats were shown by ESPN throughout the match. The winners-errors differential was displayed at some point of the tiebreak when it was near its end and it's actually the errors count that was similar to mine. They had clearly more winners (Fed was over 30), must have categorized more unreturned serves as service winners than I did, I was strict about them - only if the returner barely got the racquet on. They also had clearly more net approaches than me because they counted any kind of presence at the net as a net approach, even when the opponent didn't even get to the ball that the player hit before approaching. That's the only reasonable explanation.
yeah, service winners is subjective.

the scenario you are describing about the net approach -- I'm assuming the player was not near the service line or past it when he hit the shot that resulted in a winner ? That's not a net point. Shouldn't be.

I was annoyed with something very similar with respect to net points in the previous match I did. They had clearly more net points than me.

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/federer-roddick-wimbledon-2009-final-stats.601418/#post-11688918
 

TheAssassin

Legend
I was looking more at the AMs based on the UE count. (Krosero's count in AO 05 had more service winners than official count, so didn't want to get in W-UE ratio)

TMC 2004 SF :
Federer : 17.96%
Safin : 12.57%

at AO 2005 SF:
Federer : 20.76%
Safin : 18.99%

Houston was a faster, more enabling environment for hitting, so would expect higher AMs than at the AO if quality were about the same level.
Safin was better in AO 05, but Federer was at about the same level I think.

in the TMC 04 final that I did recently,

Federer's AM = (62-26)/102 = 35.29%
Hewitt's AM = (40-26)/102 = 13.73%

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/federer-hewitt-tmc-2004-final-stats.599957/

Hewitt's AM in the final being a tad higher than Safin's in the semi definitely raises eyebrows.
Oh well, it's always questionable with these errors. Personally I was quite harsh on both players so if there are any numbers that are too high then it's the unforced errors. Turn just two of Safin's unforced errors into forced and his AM is higher than Hewitt's in the final. :p Didn't think Federer's AM in the final would be so much higher.
:Dyeah, service winners is subjective.

the scenario you are describing about the net approach -- I'm assuming the player was not near the service line or past it when he hit the shot that resulted in a winner ? That's not a net point. Shouldn't be.

I was annoyed with something very similar with respect to net points in the previous match I did. They had clearly more net points than me.

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/federer-roddick-wimbledon-2009-final-stats.601418/#post-11688918
If the player was near the service line when he hit the winner, I counted it as a net point. If he was around halfway between the baseline and the service line or closer to the baseline when he hit the winner, I didn't.

At first I got irritated when their net approaches were shown, for a second I thought I missed on some points and had to start all over again, but luckily I quickly figured out what they were doing.
 
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