Federer vs Djokovic... top 5 matches and wins...

beard

beard

Legend
In this thread Fed fan started discussion about how bad Novak was against top 5 players in 2020...

Subject seems interesting, so I decided to dig some more stats...
And its very interesting...

First... one fact: Novak still has most top 5 wins in 2020 - four (along with Thiem)

Second, 2020 was played only half of the year so it's not comparable...
To make it comparable we must extrapolate results... Legitimate stat tool for those who knows statistics...
Top 5 wins usually occur at big tournaments (14), this year there were 7 big tournaments... 4 wins are extrapolated 8 wins in whole season...
Bolded: Fed was worst or equal compared to Novaks 2020 top 5 wins...
- In 2003 Fed had 5 top 5 wins
- In 2004 Fed had 11 top 5 wins
- In 2005 Fed had 6 top 5 wins
- In 2006 Fed had 8 top 5 wins
- In 2007 Fed had 9 top 5 wins
- In 2009 Fed had 3 top 5 wins
- In 2010 Fed had 10 top 5 wins
- In 2011 Fed had 4 top 5 wins
- In 2012 Fed had 7 top 5 wins
- In 2013 Fed had 5 top 5 wins
- In 2014 Fed had 7 top 5 wins
- In 2015 Fed had 8 top 5 wins
- In 2016 Fed had 0 top 5 wins
- In 2017 Fed had 6 top 5 wins
- In 2018 Fed had 1 top 5 wins - yes, he still won slam :rolleyes:
- In 2019 Fed had 2 top 5 wins
- In 2020 Fed had 0 top 5 wins
So, Fed had better top 5 wins score in only 3 of 17 years compared to Novaks 2020...

Now, lets compare the best Federer and Djokovic seasons vs top 5 players (number of wins):
Federer: 11, 9, 8, 8, 7, 7, 6, 6...
Djokovic: 16, 13, 13, 9, 8, 8, 7, 7...

Next, total top 5 wins:
Federer: 104 (six years longer career)
Djokovic: 101

Winning percentage against top 5:
Federer: 58.1% (104/75)
Djokovic: 59.4% (101/69)

How often they played top 5 players (percentage of all played matches), or who had to play top players more often:
Federer: 11.74%
Djokovic: 14.94%
Huge difference!!!


And, Fed fan had guts to start thread about Novaks top 5 wins....
 
As much as I agree Djokovic has done better against top 5 opponents for whatever reason, we can't extrapolate 4 top 5 wins and make it equal to 8 for a full season. As far as we know, Djokovic could have ended with just 4 or gotten significantly more.

What you could do is say even though Djokovic got to play only half the big tournaments this year, he still beat or tied 6/17 of Federer's years. After all, if 2020 had 8 top 5 wins, it would be tied for Djokovic's 5th best performance in a season. You could do the same comparison on Djokovic's years you did on Federer's and get that Djokovic beat his own extrapolated 2020 total only 4 times in his career, practically equal to Federer's 3 times.

We can't run on assumption. Assuming Djokovic gets 4 more wins out of 8 more matches against top 5 opponents may not be reasonable, especially since the ranking system makes it hard for players that aren't in form to lose out in the rankings (albeit it also includes a dead spot in the rankings - Federer is still in the top 5 despite not playing).
 
beard said:
In this thread Fed fan started discussion about how bad Novak was against top 5 players in 2020...

Subject seems interesting, so I decided to dig some more stats...
And its very interesting...

First... one fact: Novak still has most top 5 wins in 2020 - four (along with Thiem)

Second, 2020 was played only half of the year so it's not comparable...
To make it comparable we must extrapolate results... Legitimate stat tool for those who knows statistics...
Top 5 wins usually occur at big tournaments (14), this year there were 7 big tournaments... 4 wins are extrapolated 8 wins in whole season...
Bolded: Fed was worst or equal compared to Novaks 2020 top 5 wins...
- In 2003 Fed had 5 top 5 wins
- In 2004 Fed had 11 top 5 wins
- In 2005 Fed had 6 top 5 wins
- In 2006 Fed had 8 top 5 wins
- In 2007 Fed had 9 top 5 wins
- In 2009 Fed had 3 top 5 wins
- In 2010 Fed had 10 top 5 wins
- In 2011 Fed had 4 top 5 wins
- In 2012 Fed had 7 top 5 wins
- In 2013 Fed had 5 top 5 wins
- In 2014 Fed had 7 top 5 wins
- In 2015 Fed had 8 top 5 wins
- In 2016 Fed had 0 top 5 wins
- In 2017 Fed had 6 top 5 wins
- In 2018 Fed had 1 top 5 wins - yes, he still won slam :rolleyes:
- In 2019 Fed had 2 top 5 wins
- In 2020 Fed had 0 top 5 wins
So, Fed had better top 5 wins score in only 3 of 17 years compared to Novaks 2020...

Now, lets compare the best Federer and Djokovic seasons vs top 5 players (number of wins):
Federer: 11, 9, 8, 8, 7, 7, 6, 6...
Djokovic: 16, 13, 13, 9, 8, 8, 7, 7...

Next, total top 5 wins:
Federer: 104 (six years longer career)
Djokovic: 101

Winning percentage against top 5:
Federer: 58.1% (104/75)
Djokovic: 59.4% (101/69)

How often they played top 5 players (percentage of all played matches), or who had to play top players more often:
Federer: 11.74%
Djokovic: 14.94%
Huge difference!!!


And, Fed fan had guts to start thread about Novaks top 5 wins....
Click to expand...
That's not even what the thread is about. It's about the here and now. Not about how many top 5 wins Djokovic had through the years over his pigeons, 2015dal, and old man Federer. My thread is a pandemic/#1 weeks record based thread. Everyone ignore this attempt at revenge which is what it is. Straight sodium.
 
PeoplesChamp said:
That's not even what the thread is about. It's about the here and now. Not about how many top 5 wins Djokovic had through the years over his pigeons, 2015dal, and old man Federer. My thread is a pandemic/#1 weeks record based thread. Everyone ignore this attempt at revenge which is what it is. Straight sodium.
Click to expand...
You messed up, it's ok...
You can consider this thread a separate subject, and enjoy discussion at will...
 
TripleATeam said:
As much as I agree Djokovic has done better against top 5 opponents for whatever reason, we can't extrapolate 4 top 5 wins and make it equal to 8 for a full season. As far as we know, Djokovic could have ended with just 4 or gotten significantly more.

What you could do is say even though Djokovic got to play only half the big tournaments this year, he still beat or tied 6/17 of Federer's years. After all, if 2020 had 8 top 5 wins, it would be tied for Djokovic's 5th best performance in a season. You could do the same comparison on Djokovic's years you did on Federer's and get that Djokovic beat his own extrapolated 2020 total only 4 times in his career, practically equal to Federer's 3 times.

We can't run on assumption. Assuming Djokovic gets 4 more wins out of 8 more matches against top 5 opponents may not be reasonable, especially since the ranking system makes it hard for players that aren't in form to lose out in the rankings (albeit it also includes a dead spot in the rankings - Federer is still in the top 5 despite not playing).
Click to expand...
One can agree on extrapolation, one can disagree... It's on you... extrapolation is regular stat tool...
Anyway, many other facts to discuss besides interpolated stat...
 
beard said:
You messed up, it's ok...
You can consider this thread a separate subject, and enjoy discussion at will...
Click to expand...
No, I didn't mess up. Djokovic can stroll to a record without even trying or hell, even show up. His results after the pandemic break imo prove that he doesn't deserve the record handed to him on a silver platter. If he was winning slams or beating top 5 players I wouldn't say anything. The facts are that a mediocre level playing Djokovic is riding the system to an important record or at the very least has the option to do so and save his body in the process.
 
Last edited:
beard said:
One can agree on extrapolation, one can disagree... It's on you... extrapolation is regular stat tool...
Anyway, many other facts to discuss besides interpolated stat...
Click to expand...
You can say extrapolation is used in statistics, and it is, but sport is different. Sport works on extrapolation intermingled with regression to the mean.

For instance, if you extrapolated into the future Djokovic's 2015 season, you'd think Djokovic would have 25 slams by now, but he has 17. If you used his average slam victories since 2008, you'd get 16.25 slams.

I agree there's many things to discuss, but that's the one in particular I would disagree about using.
 
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