alexio
G.O.A.T.
6 delpo...and 7?
Federer vs. Thiem. Higher peak level at RG?
- Thread starter Sport
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Azure
G.O.A.T.
Thiem is at best Soderling level*. Federer is miles ahead. His performance from 2005-07 and his 2011 form indicate that he played his best at his peak which was good enough to be an overwhelming favourite after Rafa in any clay tournament and was good enough to beat Djoker in his best year. At close to 28 and arguably at or slightly beyond his peak, Thiem hasn't yet displayed that level.
*As of now.
*As of now.
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
I don't think he's even at Soderling level. Can't see him delivering such stunning performances against 2009 Nadal and 2010 Federer.
BackhandDTL
Hall of Fame
Fongini
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
Was thinking Zeballos but that's a good pick.
Poisoned Slice
Bionic Poster
JoelSandwich
Hall of Fame
How is this even a question
Azure
G.O.A.T.
I perhaps will have to agree - it's just that Thiem has arguably been the second best clay courter for a few years now. Soderling certainly had a better mental toughness imo. I mean to the original question, I think Freddy is way better...
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
He has been the second-best claycourter but if we're talking absolute peak, then we'll have to leave consistency off the table.
Azure
G.O.A.T.
Yip, agree. No arguments from me on this. Frankly I am still not clear on Fred vs Nole. The debate perhaps lies there. Thiem simply doesn't figure.
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
Yeah, it's unfortunate. Do hope he'll snag an RG at some point, though.
NonP
Legend
Soderling's level in '09 and '10 is frankly overrated. I recently revisited both of his matches (you know which ones) and didn't see anything that would have y'all going gaga over vs. Norman's or Delpo's (to name but two most recent comparisons) top stuff if you had nothing but the videos to go by. It's almost certainly not a coincidence that Robin never came close to joining the 60% Club even in those two years - 55.8% and 56.3% of games won on clay in '09 and '10 respectively (both excluding the WTC which is all but an exo), 55.2% and 56.1% excluding post-RG events* - while both Norman and Delpo flirted with if not even surpassed the 60% mark not once but twice.
In short Sod ain't winning a FO with those numbers in any era. Even Thiem boasts better overall #s, and while I'd still probably back Robin for that peak-for-peak showdown that's really not much of an endorsement to begin with.
*The ATP's stats for Sod's '09 season are a mess. Everything from his 3rd round vs. Nico is missing (thankfully I was able to reconstruct the #s by detective work), ditto the WTC stats (which again tell us next to nothing, but they're 23/26 on serve and 17/26 on return if anyone cares) which are still included in both the Leaderboard and the Player Stats (these two don't always match - yeah I know).
Cabeza del Demonio
Professional
Teem is overrated
socallefty
G.O.A.T.
Just looking at their games on clay, it would seem fairly even. But, Federer is supremely self-confident against all players not named Nadal or Djokovic on all surfaces and has been very consistent throughout his career in making it to the late stages of tournaments including on clay. Thiem does not seem to have that mental self-belief and consistency yet and has a long way to go to be mentioned in the same breath as Federer even on clay. The good news is that he is still improving and he looks like he is on the path to having a couple of dominating years in the future.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
The Maestro
Nadalgaenger
G.O.A.T.
Fully agree.
Fed deserves this hands down.
Druss
Hall of Fame
Federer's peak on clay would be something like Rome 2006, and he was a whisker from winning it against a prime Nadal. Any genuine tennis annalyst think that Thiem would have done the same? He's been lucky to have an old Nadal who is obviously way past his best, yet doesn't even have a clay Masters to his name.
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
We're only counting his peak at RG though, not clay.
Regardless, Fed was still closer to beating prime Nadal at RG in 06 and 07 than Thiem has gotten to beating old Nadal in 18 or 19.
ForehandCross
G.O.A.T.
I am not going to bash your opinion, I just want you to respectfully elaborate on yiur thoughts
Thiem has the most important thing that is required on clay: Power and highest level of physicality.
Federer and Djokovic have lacked one of those in most years. Federer's BH for all it's variety,can't consistently push people back on clay. Djokovic MAYBE except 2011,2016 never has had the power to bully people from back of the court.
Thiem has all the tools to transcend them but has been boneheaded and absurd with his strategy many times.Sometimes screwed over by fate.
But this is not about consistency the thread is about peak level, And Thiem has all the tools to exceed Djokerrer. Power on both wings, physical fortitude, and these days he plays smarter.
Had he not been mentally burnt out this year, you would be seeing a Thiem who has worked on his weakness and uses his strengths intelligently.
People have such short memories, in the first two sets of 2019 RG, Thiem Challenged Rafael from the baseline like no one ever has except Soderling. He was hitting spinnier and bigger than Nadal himself in a RG Final. He got tired because that intensity was impossible to maintain after playing 4 days in a row.
And Fedovic aren't Rafael Nadal, they have had random bad matches against way lesser opposition in their best years at RG.
In my next post I will repair TTW short term memory loss
ForehandCross
G.O.A.T.
Behold TTW , Your selective amnesia, Thiem was matching and overpowering Nadal at RG Final before getting tired, THIS IS FROM EVERY FANBASE.
Reread that thread ,everyone here is agreeing Thiem is outplaying Nadal but won't have anything left in tank.
Reread that thread ,everyone here is agreeing Thiem is outplaying Nadal but won't have anything left in tank.
Tshooter
G.O.A.T.
2020 Sinner says hold my beer.
abmk
Bionic Poster
those numbers for clay season are utterly and completely useless in this regard seeing as Soderling didn't play anywhere near that level in that events before RG.
Soderling was stunning in both those matches, I wouldn't use any other lesser word to describe.
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AnOctorokForDinner
Talk Tennis Guru
lol
Tim playing at 500% barely manages to split two sets with oldal then dies. And this is supposed to be your core argument? ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahabahahahahahahahahahaha!
Tshooter
G.O.A.T.
ForehandCross
G.O.A.T.
As I said I won't bicker with non believers, let's talk next year.
Tshooter
G.O.A.T.
AnOctorokForDinner
Talk Tennis Guru
Waiting for Tim to beat 35yearoldal so you could jump for joy and rant how boaty he is, fraudovic would never, huh? Sad!
Federev
Legend
Er... uh... OP?The overrating of the "Prince of clay" continues
Which RG win was better, Fed beating Djokovic 2011 in 4 or Thiem barely edging out Djokovic 2019 in 5 ? The answer to that question should be obvious. 2005-11 Federer takes any version of Timmy to the cleaners at RG and pretty much everywhere else.
We have a winner.
ForehandCross
G.O.A.T.
Lol. Your man couldn't get more than two wins against Nadal in 15 years. Someone did that in 3.
AnOctorokForDinner
Talk Tennis Guru
Fognini > fraud, yes? Objective analysis, bro!!
ForehandCross
G.O.A.T.
Yes. Against Nadal on clay? YES. Sorry to hurt you in your feels.
AnOctorokForDinner
Talk Tennis Guru
Stakhovsky > Roddick on grass, amirite?
abmk
Bionic Poster
disagree.
2005-07.
Fed in 04 did not play Monte Carlo. He did in 07.
Also stats would've probably got worse had he progressed further at RG in 04. But he wasn't 100% comfortable on the big central court there in 04. It was in 05 where he did get comfortable.
Azure
G.O.A.T.
Yes Soderling is perhaps best remembered for his RG exploits. He did have that bazooka forehand going for him though. The main problem I see with current evaluations is the lack of classic grass or clay courters. Peak for peak I would still place Thiem alongside Soderling....time will tell if he does put in a special performance to remove all doubt.
Azure
G.O.A.T.
Lol - like for the tweetTeem is overrated
NonP
Legend
OK, then let's look at his RG runs only. I see he won 55.9% of his games in '09 and 58.8% in '10. (Post-'90) history tells us 55.9% is decidedly mediocre for a supposedly serious FO contender, and while 58.8% is better it's still not what you'd expect from an ATG run.
So we're supposed to accept that Soderling somehow raised his game to his utmost limit and possibly beyond for those two matches alone but somehow abandoned it in the finals where he needed it most, or maybe neither was this godlike performance it's often touted as. Which is more likely?
Besides I'm not just basing my assessment on the numbers. Again if you were to blur these players and gave the viewers nothing but the footage they'd have a hard time telling what was so special about these matches, at least not any more than what you'd see from the likes of Norman, Delpo and other recent big hitters who for one reason or another failed to go all the way. And you know what? That applies to a lot of great CC matches. You use the word "stunning" but that's not the kind of description you'd want to extract from observers if you were looking to win RG. I know I'm saying this for the 93648th time but CC tennis is almost a different game which rewards grinding and patience more than power and sheer brilliance, and while there are exceptions like Guga and Stan that's exactly what they are, exceptions to the rule.
Now could it still be the case that Robin was one of these exceptions at least for those two matches? Perhaps, but I don't see it. Not for this surface at any rate, at least not any more so than the dozens of big-time performances we've seen from other contenders over the years.
What’s even sadder is this tweet could be real.
Wait 1-2 more years. It may well come true when he's got nothing better to do.
That's the usual narrative, that Fed wasn't all that comfortable on red clay till '05. Of course the tiny hitch is that he had won '04 Hamburg in a comprehensive fashion and was considered one of the top contenders going into RG. Even if you grant that Fed wasn't at his best vs. Guga this still strikes me as a rather convenient post hoc rationale, especially since his GW% for the season drops all of 0.2% to 59.6% when you remove his stats from Gstaad (which he won).
Also '07 was when I was beginning to get back into tennis and I still remember journos mumbling that Fed was starting to look vulnerable around that time. And if you go a little further back to '04-(pre-RG) '06 and check out some of the articles touting Fed's chances on clay they most likely included the caveat that Fed had yet to reach a FO final. Of course that alone doesn't mean Fed somehow and suddenly entered his peak when he finally reached the final in '06 or even his 1st SF in '05. Many a great dirtballer would've waited so long to reach his "peak" with an ATG blocking his way to a FO final, which is most likely what happened with Fed.
Still think '04-'06 was his true peak on dirt, though I wouldn't object if you included '07.
For sheer firepower Soderling and Thiem are pretty much neck and neck. Again my big issue with Dominic is his almost comically defensive return positioning which isn't ideal for him even on clay. I think most will agree that he moves better than Robin at least, and yet the guy has struggled to win a mere 30% of his return games on dirt when truly elite dirtballers clear or at least flirt with the 40% mark. That's simply not gonna be good enough vs. most RG fields regardless of era or conditions 'cause he can't compensate for that with a fairly comfy service game a la '09 Fed.
Now you could say that wouldn't be a problem vs. Soderling who averaged just about the same RGW%, but his (extra) risk-taking, limited as it is, still makes him potentially more dangerous at least on return. And the question here is not Thiem vs. Soderling but vs. Fed, and the answer to the latter is pretty clear, both statistically and optically (or maybe eye-testily?).
Tshooter
G.O.A.T.
I’m sure he‘ll be well occupied with litigation. If I get called for jury duty we never had this conversation.
abmk
Bionic Poster
Look at the draw in 2009 - that's a beyond murderous draw - Ferrer in 3R, Nadal in 4R, Davydenko in QF, Gonzalez in SF, Federer in final
wasn't just those 2 matches. I didn't watch the Ferrer match, but Sod destroyed davy in the 2009 RG QF. Also played well vs a hot Gonzalez in the semi, though not as good as the previous 2 matches.
Sod also destroyed Cilic in 2010 4R. played well vs red-hot berdych, though dip was bigger here than in the 2009 semi, IMO.
Both Fed and Nadal played their best tennis in the 2009 and 2010 finals respectively. Sod's form had clearly dipped as well.
How do you expect stats to be good with draws like that, 2009 even more so?
I put Sod's peak over Stan's at RG. delpo's in RG 09 as well over Stan 15.
I was talking about central court at RG. Had to do with the dimensions of that court as well.
It wasn't just Hamburg 04. He had routed his competition while winning Hamburg in 02 as well. Hamburg is a different case.
07 - I'll give you the sequence of events. Played well at Monte Carlo. Lost to a peak Nadal in the final who gave almost no chances.
terrible loss at Rome to Volandri - worst loss of 2007.
was struggling in Hamburg till he found his mojo back in the last 2 sets of the final
played pretty well at RG. The best any righty 1-hander has held up against Nadal at RG (including Almagro, Thiem, Stan). It was his FH that actually let him down in that final, given its usual strength.
metsman
G.O.A.T.
Soderling probably hit the consistently biggest ball ever off both wings with his feet set and was capable of mammoth serving too. Lacked the athleticism that Delpo (or Stan) had which made him vulnerable if you could get him moving, which both Nadal and Federer were too flat to do in their losses and got hit straight off the court, but not so in their wins, in which they were absolutely locked in and very sharp. Not sure Delpo could as impressively wipe out a lesser but still great opponent as Soderling, but he'd definitely do better against a top tier elite opponent (obviously we have the 09 SF/F right in front of us). Still comfortably more impressive than anything Thiem has or will ever sniff, who hasn't done either of those things. Let's not also forget that he wiped out Davydenko and Ferrer in 2009, beat Cilic handily in 2010 (ok not that impressive), and showed enough discipline and heart to win his semis in 5 against some fellow big hitters in good form. 6 quality/impressive wins in 2 years at RG, wake me up when Thiem gets his first (not counting elbowvic or 32 year old windovic).
abmk
Bionic Poster
Agree with most of this, except,
Federer wasn't flat in his loss. Given the heavy conditions, he just couldn't hit through Sod. And his movement was a fraction/step behind his prime level in 09. That cost him against Sod's hitting in RG 10 unlike vs delpo's hitting in RG 09
metsman
G.O.A.T.
There's a gulf of difference between Hamburg conditions and normal red clay due to the bounce and dampness which makes it play more like a slow low bouncing HC (obviously you still need to move well on clay to play on it, but that was never Federer's problem), indoors even sometimes. Up until reaching the 2005 RG semi the only good result Federer had on red clay was reaching the 01 QF (beating absolutely no one important, needing a miracle to escape the 2R, and getting summarily schooled by Corretja) and beating a lackadaisical/sick Ferrero in the 03 Rome SF and then playing one of the worst matches anyone's ever seen in the F (with tough competition from his two straight absolute disasters in the first round of the French as a top 10 player). Was still able to win Hamburg thrice in that period.
Obviously his 2004 stats will look good considering the vast majority of his matches came in Hamburg or vs weaker competition in Gastaad (against whom he still wasn't impressive at all from a clay court tennis perspective). In the traditional clay tournaments, he got schooled pretty convincingly by old seasoned clay courters that he never should have lost to, just on physical attributes alone.
Federer until 2005 was playing on clay like it was a HC in terms of court positioning and aggressiveness/approach. Total lack of discipline on the surface. Honestly you could even see it in 2005 in the RG SF that he was trying to pull the trigger way too quickly, but in 2005 he was just generally a bit more disciplined and more willing to embrace standing further back and hitting heavy balls. Compromised his court positioning less like 2004 often did by needlessly running around FHs. 06-07 is the peak of his clay court tactics/game(obviously still not the perfect clay court player), but he was better athletically in 2005 than 2007.
AnOctorokForDinner
Talk Tennis Guru
Lots of conjecturing happening upthread.
Still, JMDP and Söd outpeaking Thiem seems fairly clear. He doesn't seem to possess demonstrably less gift for clay tennis than them but just isn't tactically sound or comfortable in the clutch. I see Thiem as a career underperformer due to this mental weakness.
Still, JMDP and Söd outpeaking Thiem seems fairly clear. He doesn't seem to possess demonstrably less gift for clay tennis than them but just isn't tactically sound or comfortable in the clutch. I see Thiem as a career underperformer due to this mental weakness.
metsman
G.O.A.T.
Well those two are just far superior and reliable ballstrikers.
Don't think Thiem is all that mentally weak, he's just a very lacking player for his size in the ballstriking, movement, and return department. Gets put in positions results wise that he has no business being in due to the field which may give the impression of underperformance, but he's fashioned some nice results for himself anyways. A slam, 4 finals, 2 WTF finals, could still very well end up with a Courier/Murray esque haul if he can outlast Djokodal (despite likely never being an appreciably better player than Ferrer, think about it).
Care to elaborate without Rafa who the favorite at RG 2005/06/07/08/11 was?
Azure
G.O.A.T.
Interesting stat there - though its a shame that the stat is available from only the 90's. I would have loved to see what the earlier claycourters were like in this department. Thiem I feel, hasn't really brought out his best on the surface, especially at RG.
abmk
Bionic Poster
No.
Stan would've been the favorite in RG 2017 final meeting vs Thiem. Way better big match player.
RG 2018 - I wouldn't bet for Thiem against delpo in a final, given Thiem is a not a good big match player. Slight edge to Thiem at best.
2019 is the only one I'd be comfortable giving to Thiem in the absence of Nadal.
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