Federer was stopped by father time, Djokovic is not getting stopped

nolefam_2024

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Federer used to be regarded as the longevity GOAT.
He is the oldest world number 1, oldest Wimbledon winner and he almost won a slam at age 37 years 11 months in Wimbledon 2019.
But he slacked off??


The common perception here is Federer couldn't win slams/titles in older age because of other two ATG. But I don't think its remotely close to be the truth.
From age 2016 onwards, Federer couldn't keep himself fit enough to dominate the sport. He was probably the best player in 2017 but was more than 1000 pts behind Nadal in ATP race. That's not because of big 3, in fact, Federer went 4-0 vs Nadal and Djokovic didn't even factor in here. But Federer skipped entire clay season in 2017 and was injured in 2017 USOpen.

Federer's 2016 is same age as Djokovic's 2022 and Federer's 2017 is similar to Djokovic's 2023. So let's see how he did post 2016 and who were his main obstacles.

Statistic201620172018201920202021
Slam021000
Titles074400
Finals187600
H2H vs Nadal0-04-00-01-10-00-0
H2H vs Djokovic0-10-00-21-11-00-0
H2H vs Rafole in final0-03-00-10-10-00-0

So between 2016 to 2021, it was not Rafole who were his opposition, it was father time. In fact Federer went 3-2 in finals vs Rafole in this time. But he kept on getting injured and missing out on golden opportunities.
2016 missed 80% of the tour, got beaten by Coric in Halle? and Raonic in Wimbledon, playing barely on a leg.
2017 willingly missed clay tour, injured himself in USOpen and missed out on winning ATP finals and year end number 1.
2018 was not injured but had fitness issues due to long breaks in clay season. Missed most of the year making a final after Miami. Here Djokovic might have taken 2 masters from him.
2019 played clay, but was already getting to his last legs. Lost to Tsitsipas Thiem Dimitrov etc in big matches and 1 big final vs Djokovic in Wimbledon.
2020 got injured completely, had no chance of playing.
2021 did not recover and finally quit tennis after injury.

Post 2016 Federer was not really stopped because of Rafole, he would at the maximum won 1 more Wimbledon and 2 more masters if he didn't have Rafole. But he would still be behind both because his health did not allow him to compete with the young generation players like Thiem, Tsitsipas, even Dimitrov anymore. In ATP finals 2017 he lost to bunny Goffin.

We have no such statistics for Nadal since he got injured himself in 2021 and 2023. But we can extrapolate for Djokovic at same age. Federer's 2016 is Djokovic's 2022.

Stat20222023
Slams1 (only allowed in 2 slams)3
Titles57
Finals78

Federer had changed his game to so extreme that it could only work on fast courts where his post injury self could compete (AO, Wimbledon, Cincinnati, Dubai etc)

Djokovic's main advantage is his versatility on all surfaces. Last year he won 1 big title in all surface (Rome, Wimbledon, ATP Finals (indoor)).
This year again, Djokovic won big titles on Hard courts (outdoor/indoor), clay and almost won on grass. And he is so confident in his Physicality that before RG and ATP finals both times, he picked himself as the favorite. He knows he is near the peak shape of his life.



https://twitter.com/x/status/1723685754314928441


So the difference is not WEAK era or strong era or whatever the fans are making up, its the physicality. Federer could never be as fit in his 30s as Djokovic is. Currently if you are going shot to shot vs Djokovic he will still outlast you most of the times.



Federer was 1 pt away from winning grand slam at age 37 years 11 months. I think Djokovic is going to obliterate that record because he is so fit even today. Djokovic would be 38 in Wimbledon 2025, if Federer could win Wimbledon beating Rafole back to back there is no reason why Djokovic can't be winning it in 2025.

I think the saga will continue for much longer.

novak-djokovic-conductor.gif
 
Jonesy said:
Fed got beaten by younger ATGs, Djokovic killed any younger players from becoming ATGs.
Click to expand...
I am saying post age 34.
At 34, Federer had 17 slams, Djokovic had 18 slams, Nadal had maybe 18 slams. They were super close. But from this point onwards, Federer's problem was not ATGs but his own fitness.

He lost to Delpo, Anderson, Millman, Tsitsipas, Dimitrov etc in slams when he was playing good.
 

Coach knows it the best. Nadal lost crazy amount at age 35, he barely won his last 2 slams at this age.
Federer was still better at the same age, he dominated in three slams that he won and almost won 1 more at almost age 38.

Djokovic has not lost much physically. Ofcourse he lost a little bit but that's nothing.

You want to interpolate the results, look at their physicality. Nadal lost a ton physically, he is going to be very tough to win now onwards.
Federer also lost a lot but less than Nadal, so he was still able to dominate 1 season. (8 finals CRAZY in 2017)
Djokovic has lost very little physically so he is going to dominate for much longer.
 
Last edited:
Good points, OP. There’s no doubt about the longevity points here. Djoker will likely break the age-related records for winning a slam title as well. He’s already broken Rosewall’s record for most slam titles at 35+. He holds the record(by far) for most slam titles at 30+ as well.
 
Pheasant said:
Good points, OP. There’s no doubt about the longevity points here. Djoker will likely break the age-related records for winning a slam title as well. He’s already broken Rosewall’s record for most slam titles at 35+. He holds the record(by far) for most slam titles at 30+ as well.
Click to expand...

I think the point is Djokovic didn't have to sacrifice a lot of his game due to age. He increased dropshots, and using net more, and also added stronger forehand but his main game of percentage tennis is still there.
Federer had to get ultra aggressive to win matches at this age. I was very annoyed in 2017 because no one was able to stop Federer although there was huge risk he was taking going so big on all shots. Look at this match vs Wawrinka. It was hail mary plan of Roger to take every shot early so he will not have to defend at all.


Matchstats say out of 129 shots, 74 (58%) were under 4 shots and 13% were over 6 shots. Fed just didn't want to get dragged into rallies.

Instead let's check 2014 Federer vs Wawrinka. 135/231 rallies were under 4 shots (58%) but 54/231 (23%) shots were over 6 shots.

It was a big annoying factor for me that Federer didn't have someone who could extend him in rallies because Djokovic was completely out, Murray was completely out, Nadal had lost a ton of footspeed. Federer was playing big finals vs players like Nadal (lost footspeed), Kyrgios, Cilic, Raonic and Delpo. These guys are not going to be able to defend well vs him.
He had 1 match vs Donskoy and despite Federer playing better, he just didn't want to back off from baseline at any time, thereby allowing this guy to win 60% second serve points and thereby winning the match.

Donskoy should probably not be winning 60% return points vs Federer. But Federer just had 1 mode, attack.

On the contrary, Djokovic has changed very less in his game till now. There will soon come a time when he will also go hail mary on most shots, it might even come next year. But even then he would be behind the age curve of Federer by 2 years (37 vs 35).
 
Razer said:
What would 2017-2023 Nole have done if 2005-2011 Federer & 2011-2017 Nadal existed right below him ?

Imagine a scenario where Federer is 6 years younger and Nadal is 5 years younger to Djokovic ?

30s would have become very hard for Novak to win even 1 slam.
Click to expand...
I am specifically talking about age 35+. Fed was not stopped because of Rafole but his own physicality. And Fed is probably the best specimen we saw in tennis until Djokovic.
 
In 2019, Federer played Thiem in the final. He tried to use the same method he used vs Wawrinka but there were 2 main differences.
1. Fed had lost even more physicality in 2 years.
2. Thiem is a clay courter. He used his skills of scrambling for every ball, returning very HEAVY, and hitting kick serves to Federer's backhands, which didn't allow Fed to get to his hail mary tactic.

Fed was still the better HC player so he was dominating Thiem early on. But eventually Thiem got to Federer's legs and then there was going to be only 1 winner.

 
The Sinner said:
Federer’s level dropped considerably in 2018 (at 36.5-37y), compared to say 2017. Djokovic is now 36.5y and he is playing at a higher level than Fed at same age, no doubt. There’s no deny Djoko is ageing better.
Click to expand...
I will counter saying Federer even dropped at age 35. Don't just look at the results. Look at how he had to play to win. He had no safety left. The way he was taking balls inside baseline, it was amazing that he won so many titles on the trot, especially until Miami. But it was scary. And after Wimbledon, his level dropped off.
 
nachiket nolefam said:
I am specifically talking about age 35+. Fed was not stopped because of Rafole but his own physicality. And Fed is probably the best specimen we saw in tennis until Djokovic.
Click to expand...
Djokovic's 2023 season corresponds with Federer's 2017. Federer won 2 slams that year, the Sunshine Double, Shanghai masters and Basel. He won 91.5% of his matches and went 4-0 against a 5 year younger GOAT candidate. Fed also had 2017 Rafa blocking him at RG. Probably wins 2023 RG with his 2017 form.
 
nachiket nolefam said:
I will counter saying Federer even dropped at age 35. Don't just look at the results. Look at how he had to play to win. He had no safety left. The way he was taking balls inside baseline, it was amazing that he won so many titles on the trot, especially until Miami. But it was scary. And after Wimbledon, his level dropped off.
Click to expand...
He still played well in Shanghai, then after that yeah, the drop in level was noticeably visible. I could be wrong, but judging from what I saw from AO-IW-Miami in 2017, it wasn’t that far off from his 2015 level.
 
The Sinner said:
He still played well in Shanghai, then after that yeah, the drop in level was noticeably visible. I could be wrong, but judging from what I saw from AO-IW-Miami in 2017, it wasn’t that far off from his 2015 level.
Click to expand...
Fed experimented a lot in 2015 yes. He started SABR and stuff which was very high risk. But 2015 year end he started actually experimenting with neo backhand. He added Ljubicic as his coach solely to go even more aggressive on backhand, otherwise not sure what Ljubicic can teach Fed. So I think there was a difference between his 2015 vs 2017.
In shanghai he played amazing yes, but it is fast court, and Fed was able to dominate on fast courts in 2014/2015 as well. His physicality was issue only on medium to slow courts post 2016. That's why IW 2017 was such a great win.
 
Covid didn't help Federer either. Who knows who would have won Wimbledon 2020, but his retirement sort of went out of his hands a little bit with it.
 
Mazz Retic said:
Covid didn't help Federer either. Who knows who would have won Wimbledon 2020, but his retirement sort of went out of his hands a little bit with it.
Click to expand...
Federer had surgery in 2020. There was no way he could come back before AO2021. So covid did nothing for him. In fact he added many weeks inside top 10 and his rivals missed slams to catch him.
 
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nachiket nolefam said:
Fed experimented a lot in 2015 yes. He started SABR and stuff which was very high risk. But 2015 year end he started actually experimenting with neo backhand. He added Ljubicic as his coach solely to go even more aggressive on backhand, otherwise not sure what Ljubicic can teach Fed. So I think there was a difference between his 2015 vs 2017.
In shanghai he played amazing yes, but it is fast court, and Fed was able to dominate on fast courts in 2014/2015 as well. His physicality was issue only on medium to slow courts post 2016. That's why IW 2017 was such a great win.
Click to expand...
You’ve raised some good points. Yeah I think that neo BH was key in 2017, especially vs Nadal.

True that about Shanghai. E.G. In 2014 SF vs Djoko, how the speed of the court favoured Fed.
 
The Sinner said:
You’ve raised some good points. Yeah I think that neo BH was key in 2017, especially vs Nadal.

True that about Shanghai. E.G. In 2014 SF vs Djoko, how the speed of the court favoured Fed.
Click to expand...
I am saying this because Federer said so himself. I am not able to find the articles but it was during AO2016, there were murmurs about Roger starting to hit his backhand massively in the off season.

www.ubitennis.net

Roger Federer Has Not Hired Ivan Ljubicic Just to Beat Novak Djokovic

Roger Federer revealed how he doesn't believe to have the best chance to win a gold medal at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games. The Swiss also confirmed how his decision making isn't based on Novak Djokovic, including his choice to hire Ivan Ljubicic.
www.ubitennis.net www.ubitennis.net
 
I am not able to find the article but I am sure there was 1 where tennis experts were debating if Djokovic is at his best ever at age 36.
And the most sensible analyst said he agrees that Djokovic is at his best right now, and adding caveat that its true only for Djokovic because he has lost little physically. I agree.


www.forbes.com

Novak Djokovic Says Serbian Fans Want Him To Win 25-30 Grand Slams

Novak Djokovic is arguably already the GOAT of men’s tennis with his record 24 Grand Slam singles titles.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
This is what Djokovic himself says. Brad Gilbert is giving him a chance to win for next 3 years, and he is putting upper limit of 30.

Basically, there is no player ever, who was as good at age 36, even if we go to the past eras of Laver and Rosewall.
 
NatF said:
If there was a mid-late 30's top ATG like younger Djokovic himself Father Time would be winning...
Click to expand...
Its just lie brother. The evidence is right in front of you but you don't want to see it.

ATG or not, our Novak is healthy for almost every week. He has changed his game the least post 30 among any of the greats. Its going to be hard for him to have sharp decline in 2024 as well. You will see at least 1 slam if not 2.
 
nachiket nolefam said:
Its just lie brother. The evidence is right in front of you but you don't want to see it.

ATG or not, our Novak is healthy for almost every week. He has changed his game the least post 30 among any of the greats. Its going to be hard for him to have sharp decline in 2024 as well. You will see at least 1 slam if not 2.
Click to expand...
Djokovic is still very good. No doubt about it. But I just can't agree that he's as good as 2015 or even late 2018 to 2019 etc...the decline is there, there's just no one to expose it.
 
nachiket nolefam said:
Its just lie brother. The evidence is right in front of you but you don't want to see it.

ATG or not, our Novak is healthy for almost every week. He has changed his game the least post 30 among any of the greats. Its going to be hard for him to have sharp decline in 2024 as well. You will see at least 1 slam if not 2.
Click to expand...
Tbh Djoker actually had more injuries in his 30s than Fed did until the age of 37/8ish and Fed actually played more matches too in his early to mid 30s. I made a thread about it before but it got reported by some butthurt Wambulance Martyrdom Brigade bots who couldn't handle some basic numbers with added context. Might dig out the numbers again though

NatF said:
If there was a mid-late 30's top ATG like younger Djokovic himself Father Time would be winning...
Click to expand...

Funnily enough Djoker DID play a younger potential ATG-level player in a slam final this year... and mysteriously he looked his age all of a sudden :unsure:
 
nachiket nolefam said:
Federer used to be regarded as the longevity GOAT.
He is the oldest world number 1, oldest Wimbledon winner and he almost won a slam at age 37 years 11 months in Wimbledon 2019.
But he slacked off??


The common perception here is Federer couldn't win slams/titles in older age because of other two ATG. But I don't think its remotely close to be the truth.
From age 2016 onwards, Federer couldn't keep himself fit enough to dominate the sport. He was probably the best player in 2017 but was more than 1000 pts behind Nadal in ATP race. That's not because of big 3, in fact, Federer went 4-0 vs Nadal and Djokovic didn't even factor in here. But Federer skipped entire clay season in 2017 and was injured in 2017 USOpen.

Federer's 2016 is same age as Djokovic's 2022 and Federer's 2017 is similar to Djokovic's 2023. So let's see how he did post 2016 and who were his main obstacles.

Statistic201620172018201920202021
Slam021000
Titles074400
Finals187600
H2H vs Nadal0-04-00-01-10-00-0
H2H vs Djokovic0-10-00-21-11-00-0
H2H vs Rafole in final0-03-00-10-10-00-0

So between 2016 to 2021, it was not Rafole who were his opposition, it was father time. In fact Federer went 3-2 in finals vs Rafole in this time. But he kept on getting injured and missing out on golden opportunities.
2016 missed 80% of the tour, got beaten by Coric in Halle? and Raonic in Wimbledon, playing barely on a leg.
2017 willingly missed clay tour, injured himself in USOpen and missed out on winning ATP finals and year end number 1.
2018 was not injured but had fitness issues due to long breaks in clay season. Missed most of the year making a final after Miami. Here Djokovic might have taken 2 masters from him.
2019 played clay, but was already getting to his last legs. Lost to Tsitsipas Thiem Dimitrov etc in big matches and 1 big final vs Djokovic in Wimbledon.
2020 got injured completely, had no chance of playing.
2021 did not recover and finally quit tennis after injury.

Post 2016 Federer was not really stopped because of Rafole, he would at the maximum won 1 more Wimbledon and 2 more masters if he didn't have Rafole. But he would still be behind both because his health did not allow him to compete with the young generation players like Thiem, Tsitsipas, even Dimitrov anymore. In ATP finals 2017 he lost to bunny Goffin.

We have no such statistics for Nadal since he got injured himself in 2021 and 2023. But we can extrapolate for Djokovic at same age. Federer's 2016 is Djokovic's 2022.

Stat20222023
Slams1 (only allowed in 2 slams)3
Titles57
Finals78

Federer had changed his game to so extreme that it could only work on fast courts where his post injury self could compete (AO, Wimbledon, Cincinnati, Dubai etc)

Djokovic's main advantage is his versatility on all surfaces. Last year he won 1 big title in all surface (Rome, Wimbledon, ATP Finals (indoor)).
This year again, Djokovic won big titles on Hard courts (outdoor/indoor), clay and almost won on grass. And he is so confident in his Physicality that before RG and ATP finals both times, he picked himself as the favorite. He knows he is near the peak shape of his life.



https://twitter.com/x/status/1723685754314928441


So the difference is not WEAK era or strong era or whatever the fans are making up, its the physicality. Federer could never be as fit in his 30s as Djokovic is. Currently if you are going shot to shot vs Djokovic he will still outlast you most of the times.



Federer was 1 pt away from winning grand slam at age 37 years 11 months. I think Djokovic is going to obliterate that record because he is so fit even today. Djokovic would be 38 in Wimbledon 2025, if Federer could win Wimbledon beating Rafole back to back there is no reason why Djokovic can't be winning it in 2025.

I think the saga will continue for much longer.

novak-djokovic-conductor.gif
Click to expand...
ysnzgy3enukb1.jpg
 
Without ATGs, Federer would have won just 1 more Wimbledon post 2016. Federer would have won 1 more slam. He didn't miss out on 4/5 slams just because ATG were present.

In 2019 , if he was not beating Thiem in IW, there no way he was beating in Roland Garros.
In 2020, if he was not beating Thiem in IW, there is no way he was beating in Australian open, that too on 1 leg.
 
jl809 said:
Tbh Djoker actually had more injuries in his 30s than Fed did until the age of 37/8ish and Fed actually played more matches too in his early to mid 30s. I made a thread about it before but it got reported by some butthurt Wambulance Martyrdom Brigade bots who couldn't handle some basic numbers with added context. Might dig out the numbers again though



Funnily enough Djoker DID play a younger potential ATG-level player in a slam final this year... and mysteriously he looked his age all of a sudden :unsure:
Click to expand...
Show me the data and we can talk.
Federer was already showing his age by 34. He had career changing injuries. Knee surgeries. Those are massive.
 
And Djokovic didn't look his age at all in Wimbledon, it was a five set thriller where he lost barely based on his serve. He was not physically broken by Alcaraz.

Djokovic lead in every category, 1-3 shots, 4-6 shots, 7-9 shots and 9+ shots on his own serve and all but 1-3 shots on Alcaraz serve.
Fact is his serve desserted him in Wimbledon final. Otherwise you will be looking at CYGS. On the other hand, Nole outlasted Carlos 2 times in RG and Cincinnati where the younger guy got cramps in first match and probably cramped in tiebreak of the other. He is not physically getting worn down.

 
Razer said:
What would 2017-2023 Nole have done if 2005-2011 Federer & 2011-2017 Nadal existed right below him ?

Imagine a scenario where Federer is 6 years younger and Nadal is 5 years younger to Djokovic ?

30s would have become very hard for Novak to win even 1 slam.
Click to expand...
Imagine 2017 Rafa playing the dumbass 2023 version of Novak at RG, it'd be a massacre.
Djokovic is basically a vulture that has managed to outlive its predators and keeps vulturing again and again.
 
Rafa4LifeEver said:
Imagine 2017 Rafa playing the dumbass 2023 version of Novak at RG, it'd be a massacre.
Djokovic is basically a vulture that has managed to outlive its predators and keeps vulturing again and again.
Click to expand...
thats also a part of equation tbh, you probably think that a car with more fuel consumption is better than a car with less, all other things/characteristics being equal, amazing
 
SonnyT said:
Who is a vulture? Djokovic has proven himself by dominating 2011-16. Such idiotic comments!

In 2017-18, Federer's slam counts were inflated because of Djokovic's elbow injury.
Click to expand...
Ignore the trolls. What is right is Novak staying himself fit for every slam post 2018. Only 1 time he was not fit was 2019 USOpen.
 
alexio said:
thats also a part of equation tbh, you probably think that a car with more fuel consumption is better than a car with less, all other things/characteristics being equal, amazing
Click to expand...
Assisted by the fact that not a single NextGen ATG has risen since his own rise in 2008.
Basically having a free hand at the vulturefest, especially since 2019 onwards. AO 2019 was the last high level slam he won.
 
nachiket nolefam said:
And Djokovic didn't look his age at all in Wimbledon, it was a five set thriller where he lost barely based on his serve. He was not physically broken by Alcaraz.

Djokovic lead in every category, 1-3 shots, 4-6 shots, 7-9 shots and 9+ shots on his own serve and all but 1-3 shots on Alcaraz serve.
Fact is his serve desserted him in Wimbledon final. Otherwise you will be looking at CYGS. On the other hand, Nole outlasted Carlos 2 times in RG and Cincinnati where the younger guy got cramps in first match and probably cramped in tiebreak of the other. He is not physically getting worn down.

Click to expand...
Carlitos should have won Cincinnati in straight sets. His inexperience costed him the match.
 
SonnyT said:
Who is a vulture? Djokovic has proven himself by dominating 2011-16. Such idiotic comments!
Click to expand...
I missed the part where he dominated in 2012, 2013 & 2014.

Just up the level of competition a bit and his true capacity came out, one or two slam a year at max. 2011 was an anomaly when he took everyone by surprise and then got figured out in the following years. If not for Rafa and Roger's physical decline, he'd have been kept to somewhere around 15.
Even last year, a fossil Rafa basically took him to cleaners on one leg.
 
Roger's built or body was certainly heavier than Novaks. 'Heavy' top dog against a lean wolf. I think it helped his service game.

Arguably this is why I don't like the standard answer to built more muscle. Yes, you need highly functional but not bulging ones.
 
For longevity, Fed seemed to have it all: The scheduling, the footwork, the first-strike game, the efficiency, the nonchalance, the oft-remarked upon good fortune with injuries/robustness, the light practices etc. etc. If only he'd chucked out the bread bin and got himself a yoga mat he might have outlasted his more attritional and risk-averse contemporaries.
 
TearTheRoofOff said:
For longevity, Fed seemed to have it all: The scheduling, the footwork, the first-strike game, the efficiency, the nonchalance, the oft-remarked upon good fortune with injuries/robustness, the light practices etc. etc. If only he'd chucked out the bread bin and got himself a yoga mat he might have outlasted his more attritional and risk-averse contemporaries.
Click to expand...
Scheduling might be something Nole and Fed had most in common. At age 36, both played exactly 12 tournaments. But Nole played throughout the year, Fed played nothing during clay season.
 
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