Federer will be seeded #5 and will likely face either Nadal or Djokovic in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon 2020

Sport

G.O.A.T.
Even assuming Federer wins Halle 2020, he will be seeded #5 at Wimbledon 2020. It will mean Federer will likely face either Nadal or Djokovic in the QF, depending on which side of the draw he falls.

The implications are clear. Djokovic could lose 1640 ATP points if he loses to Federer in the QF of Wimbledon and Nadal could lose 360 points if he loses to Federer in the QF.



Long and boring explanation (unnecessary to read this part):


Federer won last year 500 points in Dubai, 600 in Indian Wells, 1000 in Miami, 180 in Madrid, 90 in Rome and 720 at Roland-Garros for a total of 3090 points.

Federer will lose 3090 points in the ATP ranking before the 2020 grass season. Right now he has 7130. 7130-3090 = 4040 ATP points. It will mean Federer will be at best #6 in the world before Wimbledon, because Tsitsipas has now 4745 ATP points and is #6. Federer can even be #7 at Wimbledon 2020, if Zverev who is not defending much, improves. Zverev has 3885 ATP points and is #7 in the world.

Wimbledon has an special seeding formula: ATP Entry System Position points + 100% points earned for all grass court tournaments in the past 12 months + 75% points earned for the best grass court tournament in the 12 months before that.

If Federer wins Halle 2020, he will have 4040 ATP points. 4040 + 1200 + 500 + 270 = 6010 points. Federer owuld have 6010 points considering Wimbledon seeding formula. BUT Medveved is #4 in the ranking and has 5890 points in the ATP ranking. If we apply the Wimbledon's seeding formula to Medvedev he would have 6227 ATP points. 5890 + 90 + 180 + 67 = 6227. In other words, Medvedev will be seeded #4 at Wimbledon 2020.
 
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@Sport

1. You are right that he will likely be seeded #5, if not lower.
2. But it is still more likely than not that he will not face Nadal or Djokovic in the Wimbledon quarter-finals. Seeds 5-8 are drawn at random versus 1-4, not necessarily 5 v 1 or 2, so he has a 50% chance of being in a quarter with Nadal or Djokovic and a 50% chance of being in a quarter with Thiem or Medvedev. That means he is (slightly) more likely not to play them than to play them, because even if he is in a quarter with them, there is a slight chance that one of them will lose earlier than the quarterfinals (they could get injured, for example). So, the chances that he won't play one in the quarter-finals > the chances that he will play one in the quarter-finals.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
@Sport

1. You are right that he will likely be seeded #5, if not lower.
2. But it is still more likely than not that he will not face Nadal or Djokovic in the Wimbledon quarter-finals. Seeds 5-8 are drawn at random versus 1-4, not necessarily 5 v 1 or 2, so he has a 50% chance of being in a quarter with Nadal or Djokovic and a 50% chance of being in a quarter with Thiem or Medvedev. That means he is (slightly) more likely not to play them than to play them, because even if he is in a quarter with them, there is a slight chance that one of them will lose earlier than the quarterfinals (they could get injured, for example). So, the chances that he won't play one in the quarter-finals > the chances that he will play one in the quarter-finals.
Thanks for the feeback! Good analysis. Unless surprise by unexpected early defeat or injury, Federer has a 50% chance of facing either Nadal or Djokovic in the Wimbledon QF and a 50% chance of facing either Thiem or Medvedev.
 
Thanks for the feeback! Good analysis. Unless surprise by unexpected early defeat or injury, Federer has a 50% chance of facing either Nadal or Djokovic in the Wimbledon QF and a 50% chance of facing either Thiem or Medvedev.

By the way, I assumed in my previous post that the draws are done fairly and honestly. If they are rigged, as many suspect, then it is in fact almost certain that Federer will be in a quarter with either Thiem or Medvedev. (I suppose that the organizers might want one more Federer/Nadal match and so put Federer in Nadal's quarter, but I think they will want to postpone that match at least one more round).
 

doparrained

New User
@Sport

1. You are right that he will likely be seeded #5, if not lower.
2. But it is still more likely than not that he will not face Nadal or Djokovic in the Wimbledon quarter-finals. Seeds 5-8 are drawn at random versus 1-4, not necessarily 5 v 1 or 2, so he has a 50% chance of being in a quarter with Nadal or Djokovic and a 50% chance of being in a quarter with Thiem or Medvedev. That means he is (slightly) more likely not to play them than to play them, because even if he is in a quarter with them, there is a slight chance that one of them will lose earlier than the quarterfinals (they could get injured, for example). So, the chances that he won't play one in the quarter-finals > the chances that he will play one in the quarter-finals.

Since we all know draws are rigged they will not put Federer in Nadal or Djokovic's quarter anyway. They know he is nearing the end of his career, they want another epic encounter, they will do everything to increase the chances of that. Whichever of Federer or Nadal they consider most vurnerable of the Big 3 will be placed in Thiem (utterly useless grass player who won't even make the quarters) quarter.
 
Since we all know draws are rigged they will not put Federer in Nadal or Djokovic's quarter anyway. They know he is nearing the end of his career, they want another epic encounter, they will do everything to increase the chances of that. Whichever of Federer or Nadal they consider most vurnerable of the Big 3 will be placed in Thiem (utterly useless grass player who won't even make the quarters) quarter.

I addressed this point in post #7. Long story short, I probably agree, but do think there is an outside chance that a rigged draw would put a Federer/Nadal match on the slate as early as possible in recognition of the fact that, the longer they postpone it, the less likely it is to happen.

N.B. Not Federer/Djokovic. Those aren't as high profile and there have been a lot of them in recent years.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
By the way, I assumed in my previous post that the draws are done fairly and honestly. If they are rigged, as many suspect, then it is in fact almost certain that Federer will be in a quarter with either Thiem or Medvedev. (I suppose that the organizers might want one more Federer/Nadal match and so put Federer in Nadal's quarter, but I think they will want to postpone that match at least one more round).
There is also reason to want a Federer-Djokovic match for the organizers, given that last's year final is still too recent in memory and people will want to see a second act. And the sooner the round, the more likely it is to occur a match between the two.
 

doparrained

New User
I addressed this point in post #7. Long story short, I probably agree, but do think there is an outside chance that a rigged draw would put a Federer/Nadal match on the slate as early as possible in recognition of the fact that, the longer they postpone it, the less likely it is to happen.

N.B. Not Federer/Djokovic. Those aren't as high profile and there have been a lot of them in recent years.

True, but on grass so many Top 20 players are useless I think they are more confident in Federer reaching a semi or final there. Just put him in Thiem's quarter, make sure the semi dangerous players don't wind up in that quarter, and the likelihood is high. I think they are more willing to chance that situation at WImbledon than anywhere else.
 
There is also reason to want a Federer-Djokovic match for the organizers, given that last's year final is still too recent in memory and people will want to see a second act.

I doubt it, for few reasons:

1) Nadal is more popular than Djokovic, so Federer/Nadal is widely seen as more "epic" than Federer/Djokovic.
2) Federer is likely to lose the match fairly easily against either of them if he is not fully fit, and they would rather see him lose easily against Nadal than against Djokovic. This is especially so if they think that it is likely to be Federer's Wimbledon swan song: it would be a more fitting sendoff for him to lose his final match at the tournament against Nadal, a friendly rival, than against Djokovic, a more bitter rival.
3) There have been plenty of Federer/Djokovic matches at Wimbledon in the last few years but only one Federer/Nadal match.
4) In the event that Federer recovers his form and is actually playing well, Federer/Djokovic might be the better final because Djokovic is better than Nadal at Wimbledon.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
Since we all know draws are rigged they will not put Federer in Nadal or Djokovic's quarter anyway. They know he is nearing the end of his career, they want another epic encounter, they will do everything to increase the chances of that. Whichever of Federer or Nadal they consider most vurnerable of the Big 3 will be placed in Thiem (utterly useless grass player who won't even make the quarters) quarter.
Thiem had done nothing at the AO before 2020. Maybe this year he will do something at WB for the first time. You are right that grass is Thiem's worst surface, but to call him "useless" is an exaggeration. Thiem defeated Federer on grass in Stuttgart 2016.
 
Federer will be pushing 39 and playing the 1st(or 2nd) official tournament after a surgery. This is not 2017. There is no fairytale this time.
Actually this means fairytale is confirmed. He will win Wimbledon and his 21st grand slam and then retire. Nadal will win 2 more FOs and nothing else so he ties at 21 but won't be GOAT because of dirt slams. Djokovic will have 4 more grand slam wins in him to he also ties at 21 but he won't be GOAT because he needs to surpass 21 to overtake Fed.
Therefore, Fed will remain GOAT.
/disussion
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
I doubt it, for few reasons:

1) Nadal is more popular than Djokovic, so Federer/Nadal is widely seen as more "epic" than Federer/Djokovic.
2) Federer is likely to lose the match fairly easily against either of them if he is not fully fit, and they would rather see him lose easily against Nadal than against Djokovic. This is especially so if they think that it is likely to be Federer's Wimbledon swan song: it would be a more fitting sendoff for him to lose his final match at the tournament against Nadal, a friendly rival, than against Djokovic, a more bitter rival.
3) There have been plenty of Federer/Djokovic matches at Wimbledon in the last few years but only one Federer/Nadal match.
4) In the event that Federer recovers his form and is actually playing well, Federer/Djokovic might be the better final because Djokovic is better than Nadal at Wimbledon.
All your points are completely valid. However, I think we will agree that the sooner the round, the most likely the match is to occur. So placing Federer in Djokovic's QF makes the matchup more likely to occur than placing him in the final. And, considering how last year's final went, it would be a quite dramatic and hyped match. Federer fans would want revenge.
 

zep

Hall of Fame
Are you saying some slams rig their draws and others don't?

Yes. AO (since 2018) and USO definitely do. There are too many spicy matchups and they don't do the draw in front of reporters/public. They may not rig the whole draw but I am quite positive that they do minor adjustments. RG and Wimbledon do it in front of press, there's no chance of any rigging. Wimbledon actually draws all the 126 players manually. RG only draws the seeds manually. They place the other 96 randomly with the help of a computer.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
Yes AO (since 2018) and USO definitely do. There are two many spicy matchups and they don't do the draw in front of reporters/public. They may not rig the whole draw but I am quite positive that they do minor adjustments.

Fair enough. I am now convinced that they all do.
 

zep

Hall of Fame
Fair enough. I am now convinced that they all do.

RG and Wimbledon do it in front of the press, there's no chance of any rigging. Wimbledon actually draws all the 126 players manually. RG only draws the seeds manually. They place the other 96 randomly with the help of a computer.

Quote
 

doparrained

New User
Anyone who ever questioned slams rigging draws should be fully convinced after Gauff and Venus drew each other 1st round at 2 out of 3 slams. The odds of that happening are insanely miniscule.
 
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Hitman

Bionic Poster
RG and Wimbledon do it in front of the press, there's no chance of any rigging. Wimbledon actually draws all the 126 players manually. RG only draws the seeds manually. They place the other 96 randomly with the help of a computer.

Quote

To each his own. I don't believe it anymore. I think they are all rigged.
 

zep

Hall of Fame
Anyone who ever questioned slams rigging draws should be fully convinced after Gauff and Venus drew each other 1st round at 2 out of 3 slams. The odds of that happening are insanely miniscule.

Wimbledon wasn't rigged. Gauff wasn't even well known back then. She became a star after beating Venus. But yes, the AO match up was almost certainly rigged. The same is true for Kyrgios vs Nadal R4.
 

zep

Hall of Fame
To each his own. I don't believe it anymore. I think they are all rigged.

It's not a matter of opinion though when you see it happening right in front of you. I don't trust draws that are done behind the scene. US Open has always done that. AO also joined the party in 2018.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
It's not a matter of opinion though when you see it happening right in front of you. I don't trust draws that are done behind the scene. US Open has always done that. AO also joined the party in 2018.

Actually it is, magic tricks happen in front of people also. But not everyone can see the trick.
 

doparrained

New User
Wimbledon wasn't rigged. Gauff wasn't even well known back then. She became a star after beating Venus. But yes, the AO match up was almost certainly rigged. The same is true for Kyrgios vs Nadal R4.

Perhaps, but even prior to Wimbledon there was the story of the biggest age gap ever, the heir apparent to American tennis who was a young black her against her aging idol legend. And they knew there was a good chance Gauff could win the match (hence why they wouldn't put her against Serena instead) and her star would be born.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
Wimbledon is seeding Federer #4. Book it. They will do it because they can, because they have done something like this before and because of his legendary status there.
 

zep

Hall of Fame
Actually it is, magic tricks happen in front of people also. But not everyone can see the trick.

The difference here is that people who do the draw aren't really magicians. It's not easy to pull off a stunt like that. You need years of practice.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
Perhaps, but even prior to Wimbledon there was the story of the biggest age gap ever, the heir apparent to American tennis who was a young black her against her aging idol legend. And they knew there was a good chance Gauff could win the match (hence why they wouldn't put her against Serena instead) and her star would be born.

Kyrgios perfectly placed in the second round with Nadal at W last year, after the history they had at Acapulco only a few weeks earlier. They even advertised it as some sort of grudge match. LOL.
 

zep

Hall of Fame
Wimbledon is seeding Federer #4. Book it. They will do it because they can, because they have done something like this before and because of his legendary status there.

They won't. They will follow the formula. I don't see them making an exception for Federer.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
The difference here is that people who do the draw aren't really magicians. It's not easy to pull off a stunt like that. You need years of practice.

This is multi million dollar business, I think they know what they need to do. Again, you are entitled to your opinion, mine just happens to be different.
 

zep

Hall of Fame
This is multi million dollar business, I think they know what they need to do. Again, you are entitled to your opinion, mine just happens to be different.

If you watch the RG draw (it's streamed every year), they invite someone from outside (usually a sportsman) to do the draw. I highly doubt that he would be trained to rig it. It's too risky. If someone catches it, it will be a disastrous PR move for the tournament. There's a reason why US Open and AO draws are done backstage. It's not easy to rig it in front of everyone. But yes, you're entitled to your opinion.
 

TennisFan3

Talk Tennis Guru
Something tells me that Federer will be in a quarter void of either Djokovic or Nadal...

I always used to believe in the sanctity of the game. That everything is fair. That the draws are completely impartial.

But fool me once ....fool me twice and shame on me. It's happened a little too much to be a coincidence.

So I fully agree with @Hitman -- ATP will make sure that they DO NOT have a Nadal/Djokovic vs Fed QF. The draws have been manipulated far too long, and Fedalovic early is not good for $$.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
They won't. They will follow the formula. I don't see them making an exception for Federer.

I think they will but we will see. I remember them bumping up Graf to #2 in 1999 and she didn't play in 1997 and lost in the 3rd round in 1998.
 

doparrained

New User
If you watch the RG draw (it's streamed every year), they invite someone from outside (usually a sportsman) to do the draw. I highly doubt that he would be trained to rig it. It's too risky. If someone catches it, it will be a disastrous PR move for the tournament. There's a reason why US Open and AO draws are done backstage. It's not easy to rig it in front of everyone. But yes, you're entitled to your opinion.

I guess it is possible the RG draw is not rigged while the others are. I can't think of any obvious suspicious happenings at RG. Of course it wouldn't surprise me if it were rigged as well, I don't really care either way. The only certain some is some (many, all?) draws in tennis are rigged in some way. If they don't rig the RG draw it is because it is the least suspenseful and intersting slam to fans these days, the mens is a foregone nearly every year, Nadal will win, and the only question is of the other finishes, and the womens usually the games only true star Serena will lose early leaving minimal interest to the event.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
If you watch the RG draw (it's streamed every year), they invite someone from outside (usually a sportsman) to do the draw. I highly doubt that he would be trained to rig it. It's too risky. If someone catches it, it will be a disastrous PR move for the tournament. There's a reason why US Open and AO draws are done backstage. It's not easy to rig it in front of everyone. But yes, you're entitled to your opinion.

So lets just agree to disagree here. :) (y)

And FYI I have seen many live draws, doesn't mean they are not rigged. A lot of the times the numbers picked up weigh differently, even if they are the same size, so when the person moves their hands around, then can tell which one is heavier. This is a well known trick.
 
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zep

Hall of Fame
I think they will but we will see. I remember them bumping up Graf to #2 in 1999 and she didn't play in 1997 and lost in the 3rd round in 1998.

Those were different times. They didn't really have a seeding formula. They had a committee and it decided the seeds. Since 2002, they have a pre defined formula and they have been following it without exception since then. I don't see that changing this year. It would set a bad precedent.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
I always used to believe in the sanctity of the game. That everything is fair. That the draws are completely impartial.

But fool me once ....fool me twice and shame on me. It's happened a little too much to be a coincidence.

So I fully agree with @Hitman -- ATP will make sure that they DO NOT have a Nadal/Djokovic vs Fed QF. The draws have been manipulated far too long, and Fedalovic early is not good for $$.

I've been there. I used to think they were not, but just over and over I have seen some of the outcomes and it becomes too obvious after a while.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
Those were different times. They didn't really have a seeding formula. They had a committee and they decided the seeds. Since 2002, they have a pre defined formula and they have been following it without exception since then. I don't see that changing this year. It would set a bad precedent.

He deserves it in my opinion but I get your point.
 

TennisFan3

Talk Tennis Guru
I've been there. I used to think they were not, but just over and over I have seen some of the outcomes and it becomes too obvious after a while.

I agree 100%. I could literally take out the last 15 slams and point out instances where things keep happening in a certain fashion.
From a probability standpoint - if the draws were truly random - it would literally be a 1.54% chance (1 in 64) for the actuals.
 

GabeT

G.O.A.T.
I addressed this point in post #7. Long story short, I probably agree, but do think there is an outside chance that a rigged draw would put a Federer/Nadal match on the slate as early as possible in recognition of the fact that, the longer they postpone it, the less likely it is to happen.

N.B. Not Federer/Djokovic. Those aren't as high profile and there have been a lot of them in recent years.
Anyone ever ran a statistical analysis of draws to see if they are rigged?
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
When Federer was playing badly in 2013, they twice put him in Nadal's quarter at a slam, W and USO back to back to maximize chances of a Fedal match, because Federer was not reliable to make it far.

When Nadal was playing badly in 2015, they twice put him in Djokovic's quarter at a slam, RG and USO to maximize chances of Djokodal match, because Nadal was not reliable to make it far.

Both times they tried to get their money matches in as early as possible, taking into account the form of one of the players.
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
Those were different times. They didn't really have a seeding formula. They had a committee and it decided the seeds. Since 2002, they have a pre defined formula and they have been following it without exception since then. I don't see that changing this year. It would set a bad precedent.
For what it's worth, only the men's side uses the formula. The women's seeds are still determined by committee, and very recently they bumped Serena up a few spots
 
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