Federer will be seeded #5 and will likely face either Nadal or Djokovic in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon 2020

Djokovic2011

Bionic Poster
There is also reason to want a Federer-Djokovic match for the organizers, given that last's year final is still too recent in memory and people will want to see a second act. And the sooner the round, the more likely it is to occur a match between the two.
Lol, they've had quite a few second acts at SW19 in recent years.
 

weakera

Talk Tennis Guru
Something tells me that Federer will be in a quarter void of either Djokovic or Nadal...

You never know. It may make more sense to lock in a marquee matchup early for the tourney organizers rather than risk an early Federer exit.
 

DSH

Talk Tennis Guru
Great news.
A last "Fedovic" match-up is always welcome!
:)
 
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All your points are completely valid. However, I think we will agree that the sooner the round, the most likely the match is to occur. So placing Federer in Djokovic's QF makes the matchup more likely to occur than placing him in the final. And, considering how last year's final went, it would be a quite dramatic and hyped match. Federer fans would want revenge.

I think Federer beating Djokovic at Wimbledon is rather unlikely at this point. To be honest, I think him beating Nadal is also unlikely, but the tournament organizers might think it marginally less unlikely, and they also might think that him losing to Nadal is a greater sendoff.

This injury makes me think that 2020 might well end up Federer's last year on tour. Perhaps he gives Wimbledon, the US Open, and the Olympics one last shot each and calls it a day at Basel. I guess he'll see how he does the rest of the year before deciding. If he doesn't qualify for London, he might think he can't go on any longer.
 
Federer won the 2017 Australian while ranked 16th.

I don't think he will be worried about the ranking. As long as he is fit he is a threat to any one on grass and threat to everyone except Nadal on clay and Novak on hard courts

Hope he comes back strong .
 

weakera

Talk Tennis Guru
Federer won the 2017 Australian while ranked 16th.

I don't think he will be worried about the ranking. As long as he is fit he is a threat to any one on grass and threat to everyone except Nadal on clay and Novak on hard courts

Hope he comes back strong .


I'm sure he won't "worry" about it but it hurts his chances.
 

Pheasant

Legend
Man, watch Federer get Nadal in the quarters. That would be hilarious, unless you are a Nadal fan waiting for Rafa to chase #21. Despite being rusty and old, Fed could still be dangerous for one match at Wimbledon.
 

Enceladus

Legend
It is very probably that Federer will not be among the TOP 4 seeds, in the current Wimbly Race over Fed are Djoker, Rafa and Mad Lad, Thiem lags behind Fed by more than 1000 points, but this deficit during the SD and clay season Thiem very probably to deletes.

Current Wimbly Race:

Last time Federer was not among the TOP 4 seeds at Wimbledon in 2002, when he was 7th seed.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
Unless surprise by unexpected early defeat or injury, Federer has a 50% chance of facing either Nadal or Djokovic in the Wimbledon QF
And he has a 2% chance of winning Wimbledon even if he faces someone like Gasquet in the QF's. He will be 3 weeks shy of 39 years old when the tournament starts with no matches under his belt (except Halle). Even though he's the grass GOAT, the hands of time stop for no man.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
I think Federer beating Djokovic at Wimbledon is rather unlikely at this point. To be honest, I think him beating Nadal is also unlikely, but the tournament organizers might think it marginally less unlikely, and they also might think that him losing to Nadal is a greater sendoff.

This injury makes me think that 2020 might well end up Federer's last year on tour. Perhaps he gives Wimbledon, the US Open, and the Olympics one last shot each and calls it a day at Basel. I guess he'll see how he does the rest of the year before deciding. If he doesn't qualify for London, he might think he can't go on any longer.
I would concur with you, but there is something that stops me. The fact that Federer had match points in the 2019 Wimbledon classic really changed my perspective. I don't think you pass from having match points to having no chance. Nonetheless, I totally agree with you that Federer at this point has no chance to defeat Novak at the AO, RG and the USO. But if there is one Slam where Federer still stands a chance, that is Wimbledon. Federer is, admitedly, like a unicorn, in the sense that probably no one will ever age so well as him on grass. The level he displayed last year at Wimbledon was unbelievable for a 37 years old. If he can somehow reproduce that level, I think he will have chances to win the title and defeat anyone, including Djokovic. With that being said, obviously Djokovic will be the clear favorite for Wimbledon 2020.

I think one of the main reasons why Federer keeps the motivation to continue playing is because he still feels highly competitive at Wimbledon. Once he experiences two or three consecutive bad Wimbledon runs, he will retire. I think Federer could retire as soon as 2021-2022 only if he experiences at least two consecutive bad Wimbledon runs (losing before the SF or being destroyed in 3 sets in the QF by Djokovic).
 
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DSH

Talk Tennis Guru
I would concur with you, but there is something that stops me. The fact that Federer had match points in the 2019 Wimbledon classic really changed my perspective. I don't think you pass from having match points to having no chance. Nonetheless, I totally agree with you that Federer at this point has no chance to defeat Novak at the AO, RG and the USO. But if there is one Slam where Federer still stands a chance, that is Wimbledon. Federer is, admitedly, like a unicorn, in the sense that probably no one will ever age so well as him on grass. The level he displayed last year at Wimbledon was unbeliavable for a 37 years old. If he can somehow reproduce that level, I think he will have chances to win the title and defeat anyone, including Djokovic. With that being said, obviously Djokovic will be the clear favorite for Wimbledon 2020.

I think one of the main reasons why Federer keeps the motivation to continue playing is because he still feels highly competitive at Wimbledon. Once he experiences two or three consecutive bad Wimbledon runs, he will retire. I think Federer could retire as soon as 2021-2022 only if he experiences at least two consecutive bad Wimbledon runs (losing before the SF or being destroyed in 3 sets in the QF by Djokovic).

I do no think he will play after 2021.
Although his mind still tells him to continue, his body tells him that it is better to say goodbye before it is too late.
 

Devilito

Legend
Fed would be more likely to beat Novak and Rafa at Wimbledon if he faced them in the first round when he's fresh. It's way harder for him to beat those two after 6 x Bo5 matches. At this point he's looking to win tournaments not just matches. His chances at Wimbledon would be higher to face the big guys early and hope to face a lucky lower ranked finalist. I'm not sure why people have this mentality that it's better to face the top players later on. Fed always plays better early when he's fresh.
 

r2473

G.O.A.T.
Anyone who ever questioned slams rigging draws should be fully convinced after Gauff and Venus drew each other 1st round at 2 out of 3 slams. The odds of that happening are insanely miniscule.
Maybe Isner and Mahut will meet in the 1st round at Wimbledon again this year :rolleyes:
 

clayqueen

Talk Tennis Guru
Fedr may be seeded higher than 5 after Wimbledon applies it formula even though I've told them to scrap it.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
He will be seeded top 3 based on their special rankings.
Please, read my original post. It is virtually impossible. The Wimbledon seeding formula also adds points on grass to Thiem and Medvedev. I made the calculus, and Federer has no chance to be seeded #4, unless Medvedev starts to lose points in the ranking, which is unlikely considering how little he has to defend before Wimbledon.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
Only to have Medvedev make an inspired SF run beating Comebackerer on the way
Zverev has arguably a more powerful serve than Medvedev. If Zverev is focused, like he was this AO, he may go deep this Wimbledon. His game and huge serve are optimal for grass.
 

Third Serve

Talk Tennis Guru
Please, read my original post. It is virtually impossible. The Wimbledon seeding formula also adds points on grass to Thiem and Medvedev. I made the calculus, and Federer has no chance to be seeded #4, unless Medvedev starts to lose points in the ranking, which is unlikely considering how little he has to defend before Wimbledon.
Calculus?????????

I don’t think you need such advanced mathematics for this situation.
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
Please, read my original post. It is virtually impossible. The Wimbledon seeding formula also adds points on grass to Thiem and Medvedev. I made the calculus, and Federer has no chance to be seeded #4, unless Medvedev starts to lose points in the ranking, which is unlikely considering how little he has to defend before Wimbledon.
Here are the seeding points as it stands right now. This is dropping everything they defend until Wimbledon, to simplify the calculations.

1. Djokovic - 10585
2. Nadal - 6350
3. Medvedev - 5155
4. Federer - 5025
5. Thiem - 3937.5
6. Tsitsipas - 2940

Note that points gained in this years grass tournaments will count twice, making Fed's theoretical max 6525 points if he wins both Halle and Stuttgart.

That means Medvedev only needs 1370 points from now until Wimbledon to pass Federer's theoretical max. Thiem needs 2587.5 points to ensure a spot ahead of Fed, with his favorite stretch on clay coming up and his Rio points not yet counted. I think it's fair to say Federer will not be seeded in the Top 4 come Wimbledon.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
Calculus?????????

I don’t think you need such advanced mathematics for this situation.
According to the Oxford Dictionary, a definition of calculus is:

"A particular method or system of calculation or reasoning"

And they define calculation as:

"A mathematical determination of the amount or number of something."

In other words, a calculus is any mathematical operation, be it simple or complex. Yes, for the Wimbledon seeding formula you need to do a calculus. A simple calculus is still a calculus. In bold you can see the simple calculus I made (basically substractions and additions).

Wimbledon special seeding forumula: TP Entry System Position points + 100% points earned for all grass court tournaments in the past 12 months + 75% points earned for the best grass court tournament in the 12 months before that.

First I calculated how many points will Federer lose before Wimbledon. Federer won last year 500 points in Dubai, 600 in Indian Wells, 1000 in Miami, 180 in Madrid, 90 in Rome and 720 at Roland-Garros for a total of 3090 points. Right now he has 7130. 7130-3090 = 4040 ATP points.

Then I applied the Wimbledon seeding formula to Federer:

If Federer wins Halle 2020, he will have 4040 ATP points. 4040 + 1200 + 500 + 270 = 6010 points. Federer owuld have 6010 points considering Wimbledon seeding formula. BUT Medveved is #4 in the ranking and has 5890 points in the ATP ranking.

If we apply the Wimbledon's seeding formula to Medvedev (assuming he stays with the same number of ATP points) he would have 6227 ATP points. 5890 + 90 + 180 + 67 = 6227. In other words, Medvedev will be seeded #4 at Wimbledon 2020.
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
According to the Oxford Dictionary, a definition of calculus is:

"A particular method or system of calculation or reasoning"

And they define calculation as:

"A mathematical determination of the amount or number of something."

In other words, a calculus is any mathematical operation, be it simple or complex. Yes, for the Wimbledon seeding formula you need to do a calculus. A simple calculus is still a calculus. In bold you can see the simple calculus I made (basically substractions and additions).
This is correct, but really strange sounding to a native English speaker. It's like using "polemic" instead of controversy, or using "education" to mean politeness or manners
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
Here are the seeding points as it stands right now. This is dropping everything they defend until Wimbledon, to simplify the calculations.

1. Djokovic - 10585
2. Nadal - 6350
3. Medvedev - 5155
4. Federer - 5025
5. Thiem - 3937.5
6. Tsitsipas - 2940

Note that points gained in this years grass tournaments will count twice, making Fed's theoretical max 6525 points if he wins both Halle and Stuttgart.

That means Medvedev only needs 1370 points from now until Wimbledon to pass Federer's theoretical max. Thiem needs 2587.5 points to ensure a spot ahead of Fed, with his favorite stretch on clay coming up and his Rio points not yet counted. I think it's fair to say Federer will not be seeded in the Top 4 come Wimbledon.
I did the opposite to simplify as well. I assumed they would stay with the same ATP points before Wimbledon (but I substracted Federer's point before Halle). Also, Federer will not play Stuttgart!
 

Xavier G

Hall of Fame
Fed will probably be a top 4 seed at Wimbledon, imo. Apart from his Wimbledon titles and r/u last year, he has Halle and Stuttgart titles in the recent past.
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
First I calculated how many points will Federer lose before Wimbledon. Federer won last year 500 points in Dubai, 600 in Indian Wells, 1000 in Miami, 180 in Madrid, 90 in Rome and 720 at Roland-Garros for a total of 3090 points. Right now he has 7130. 7130-3090 = 4040 ATP points.

Then I applied the Wimbledon seeding formula to Federer:

If Federer wins Halle 2020, he will have 4040 ATP points. 4040 + 1200 + 500 + 270 = 6010 points. Federer owuld have 6010 points considering Wimbledon seeding formula. BUT Medveved is #4 in the ranking and has 5890 points in the ATP ranking.

If we apply the Wimbledon's seeding formula to Medvedev (assuming he stays with the same number of ATP points) he would have 6227 ATP points. 5890 + 90 + 180 + 67 = 6227. In other words, Medvedev will be seeded #4 at Wimbledon 2020.
There are a couple of mistakes here. Fed defends 180 points from Rome, not 90. You also forgot to include the 500 points for 2019 Halle. So he's dropping 3680 points, not 3090. The other issue is, 2020 Halle is going to count twice.

Medvedev didn't do all that well last year in the IW-RG stretch, so he is probably going to end up with more points than he did last year. It's easier to just drop everyone's points and go from there
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
There are a couple of mistakes here. Fed defends 180 points from Rome, not 90. You also forgot to include the 500 points for 2019 Halle. So he's dropping 3680 points, not 3090. The other issue is, 2020 Halle is going to count twice.

Medvedev didn't do all that well last year in the IW-RG stretch, so he is probably going to end up with more points than he did last year. It's easier to just drop everyone's points and go from there
You are right, but ultimately it would have made little difference. I should have included 75% of the 500 points from Halle 2019, but I should not have included the 360 points he got from Wimbledon 2018. Since 75% of 500 is 375, Federer would still be behind Medvedev.

Wimbledon special seeding forumula: TP Entry System Position points + 100% points earned for all grass court tournaments in the past 12 months + 75% points earned for the best grass court tournament in the 12 months before that.

By the time Wimbledon 2020 starts, Halle 2019 will not be part of "the past 12 months", because it happened more than 12 months before Wimbledon 2020. It happened 12 months and 2 weeks before Wimbledon 2020.

Halle 500 should be included as part of "75% points earned for the best grass court tournament in the 12 months before that." I mean, you can't count both Halle 2020 and Halle 2019 as part of the last 12 months, because Halle 2019 happened more than 12 months before Wimbledon 2020.
 
D

Deleted member 735320

Guest
Federer will lose in the first round at Wimbledon this year to a resurgent Kent Carlsson. I am tired of the Federer story. He blew his chance at 40-15 last July and needs to go away.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
This is correct, but really strange sounding to a native English speaker. It's like using "polemic" instead of controversy, or using "education" to mean politeness or manners
Thanks for the feedback. I guess calculus typically refers to a specific branch of mathematics that deals with the finding and properties of derivatives and integrals of functions.

Maybe the word I was looking for is calculation. Calculation is typically used not only for maths, but also in other domains like chess.
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
You are right, but ultimately it would have made little difference. I should have included 75% of the 500 points from Halle 2019, but I should not have included the 360 points he got from Wimbledon 2018. Since 75% of 500 is 375, Federer would still be behind Medvedev.

Wimbledon special seeding forumula: TP Entry System Position points + 100% points earned for all grass court tournaments in the past 12 months + 75% points earned for the best grass court tournament in the 12 months before that.

By the time Wimbledon 2020 starts, Halle 2019 will not be part of "the past 12 months", because it happened more than 12 months before Wimbledon 2020. It happened 12 months and 2 weeks before Wimbledon 2020.

Halle 500 should be included as part of "75% points earned for the best grass court tournament in the 12 months before that." I mean, you can't count both Halle 2020 and Halle 2019 as part of the last 12 months, because Halle 2019 happened more than 12 months before Wimbledon 2020.
Tournaments in the past 12 months includes everything from 2019 Eastbourne/Antalya up until 2020 Halle/Queen's (includes 2019 Wimbledon)
Tournaments in the 12 months before that includes everything from 2018 Eastbourne/Antalya up until 2019 Halle/Queen's (includes 2018 Wimbledon)

So yes, in this case 2019 Halle would be used as the "best grass court tournament in the 12 months before last year." It won't matter though because Fed's chances of ending up in the Top 4 are remote
 

King No1e

G.O.A.T.
Zverev has arguably a more powerful serve than Medvedev. If Zverev is focused, like he was this AO, he may go deep this Wimbledon. His game and huge serve are optimal for grass.
That would be amazing. To be honest, the best young player for grass seems to be Tsitsipas. His net game is infinitely better than Zverev's and he has almost too much variety at times, unlike today's standard baseline bot.
 

oldmanfan

Legend
Facing Fedr in QF is actually bad news for Nadalovic. The earlier on WB grass, the more dangerous Fedr will be for Nadalovic (more grass ;))
 

ewiewp

Hall of Fame
Even assuming Federer wins Halle 2020, he will be seeded #5 at Wimbledon 2020. It will mean Federer will likely face either Nadal or Djokovic in the QF, depending on which side of the draw he falls.

The implications are clear. Djokovic could lose 1640 ATP points if he loses to Federer in the QF of Wimbledon and Nadal could lose 360 points if he loses to Federer in the QF.

Well, in 2017 AO, both Djokovic and Nadal were weak.
Novak was injured and ousted by Chung.
Nadal was still struggling at the ranking of 9.
And new generations not quite strong as now.
But it's Wimbledon. It's very hard to get experience on grass these days.
Federer has edge on Wimbledon experiences but I'm not sure.
 
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guitarra

Professional
As others said I think it's less likely than not that Fed lands in the quarter without Nadal/ Djokovic. I for one would prefer him to face Novak in the QF when the pressure is lower compared to the F. Anyway, I don't think his odds at winning the whole thing will be high. Let's not fool ourselves, he'll be approaching 39 and after 6 months break post surgery.
 
Prediction: if Federer is in Nadal's quarter Nadal won't make it to Federer.

Prediction: Federer will be in Djokovic's half.

smiley_emoticons_santagrin.gif
 

Bender

G.O.A.T.
Given how long he'll have been off the tour, we can't assume he will even make the QF.
It's Federer we're talking about here, and there's zero competition on grass other than Djokovic and perhaps Nadal, so unless someone plays above their usual level or Federer does not recover in time to shake off the rust, I think he'll make the QFs just fine.
 
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