Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by BeHappy, Jun 11, 2011.
And then walk to a US Open victory.
You heard it here first.
It's a cycle that has repeated itself countless times in the past 5 years.
stage 1: Fed supporters claim that it is time he beats Rafa in <insert name of tournament here>.
stage 2: Fed breezes through his first week matches, and threads are created with the "Fed is unbeatable!!! the old roger has arrived" theme.
stage 3: Fed plays Rafa. Serves like crap, converts like 9% of his break points, loses the match.
stage 4: "Even though he lost, he played well. He will win the next time they meet. trust me"
rinse and repeat.
I think that ship has sailed along with the chance for a second RG last Sunday.
Like I said before, it's NOT THE SURFACE that counts nowadays.
Maybe it was a much bigger factor years ago, but not now.
Federer needs a new mentality when playing Nadal and I don't know who can help him with this.
Right now, they could play on 90's grass and I bet Fed would still find a way to lose.
All true except for 4. He doesn't play well against Nadal, he doesn't take his chances, he has a very big mental block against Nadal, which is the main reason he's lost to him 17 times. At least 5 or 6 of those defeats can be put down to Federer's mental block when he plays Nadal.
I thought Federer had a good chance against Nadal at the French this year, purely because there wasn't any pressure on him. He's won the French, got the slam record, isn't going for number 1 ranking, no pressure.
But no, we see the same pattern we see just about every time they play. Federer gets in the lead, gets a ton of break point chances, serves well until he's 5-1 or 5-3 up, then suddenly his first serve percentage drops from 70% to 0%. Nadal wins 6 or 7 games in a row, Nadal fans praise Nadals tremendous fighting spirit, while ignoring the fact that Federer totally threw away his massive chance to take a one set to love lead, and potentially take the match to five sets, if not win it.
It's the same every time, Federer can't get over his mental block against Nadal, when it comes to the moment of truth, he folds. It's happened many times in the past, and it will continue to happen.
Agree, Federer could easily have beaten Nadal in 6 or 7 of the 14 matches they've played on clay, and certainly should have taken Nadal to 5 at the French at least a couple of times, even if he didn't win.
People keep banging on about Nadal's forehand to Federer's backhand, they've played 14 times on clay, and Nadal is a better clay courter and so on.
While I agree Nadal is probably the better clay courter, the fact remains, Federer just can't close it out against Nadal. Ever since Rome 2006, where he couldn't win the big points in the final set, like 4-2, 40-30, 6-5, 15-40 (mp's), and 5-3 up in the final set tiebreaker. That was a BIG chance to score a BIG win over Nadal on clay, and he cracked under the pressure.
That wasn't such a big deal, it happens to everyone, but it ruined him mentally, just about every time he's had to play Nadal after that.
It would really be a thread killer if they end up in the same half.
Dumb prediction # 45386401548502
Holmes: Call me a sceptic, but that isn't going to happen. Especially with Wimbledon having its own rules for seeding etc., which I can't quite remember. After all, their intentions are too make money. Nothing will make more than a 2008 rematch.
I'd be utterly amazed if they end up in the same half.
As regards the the OP, hmmm, I think not. Although I'd love for it to happen.
(I know, and surely that will happen one day, unless its true that the draws aren't done randomly. The coin can't land on heads every time)
Nothing? How about a Brit in the Wimbledon final after God knows how many years? If they're indeed fixing the draw the way they want then it's still hard to say how it will play out given that it's Wimbledon.
They do have a formula for seeding but I don't think federer's grass results over the last 2 years are enough to outweigh Djokovic's ranking. Seeding should be 1 nadal 2 djokovic 3 Federer. Therefore 50/50 of fed and nadal being in same half.
((((((((they are done randomly))))))))
Yeah sadly,that is the way it usually goes,old record we listened to too many times already.Still you never know,they did have some close matches on grass in the past so I can't count Fed completely out if they meet in SF/F but Rafa is the big favourite no doubt.
Holmes: That would be the greatest news in the UK, yes However, I'd probably argue that from a business point, even Murray making the final wouldn't generate as much interest (and financial gain) globally as a Fedal Wimbledon rematch. If however there aim is to help Murray reach the final, it'd be nigh on impossible to grant him an easy route unless they placed Fedal and Novak in one half. That couldn't happen.
I agree completely with your last statement. It's hard to say how it will play out.
Holmes: I think you'd be right there
PS Hope those dogs are keeping you, and themselves out of mischief!
Cannot happen since Nadal will not make the final. Mind you, Fed might not make it either.
Haha, it looks like you've been here for awhile.
Federer has the edge at Wimbledon. US Open and Wimbledon are the only GS that Federer can actually beat Rafa whether in struggling or confortable fashion.
I don't know about that.Where I live,Wimbledon 09 final had higher ratings than the '08 one.I even posted them here (and no,I do NOT live in the US )
Pre 2008 Rafa maybe. If Federer beats Rafa at Wimbledon it would HAVE to be in straight sets, and Rafa doesn't play that game in finals.
Disagree,at FO it has to be in straights,Fed won't be able to keep holding his own in those grueling high to his BH rallies for more than that but that's not that much of an issue in Wimbledon and USO as the points are shorter and Rafa can't get the ball as high up and as often enough to wear down Roger that quickly.
Still I don't see Fed having the edge anywhere but at WTF but I'd still give him a shot against Nadal at Wimbledon and USO,a small chance but a chance nonetheless.
Same Zagor I give him a huge chance at those 2 slams still. What im saying though, is if the match goes longer than 3 sets, I don't see Federer winning in 4 or 5. Not so much that he can't handle it, but more, I don't see Nadal losing 3 out of 4 sets to Federer at this point in time.
Federer probably has at least one major left in him before he retires, judging from his form and age.
When and where he wins this major is anyone's guess.
I've head this 'Wimby organisers want Roger and Rafa in the final for financial gain - no way will they be in the same half' meme on a couple of a occasions now. Some points if I may.
1. The draw is drawn, in public, by a human being
2. AELTC and LTA will make the same revenues no matter who is in the final - all the tickets are already sold, all the TV/internet contracts are already let. Moreover, AELTC is not primarily driven by revenue generation - hence them not selling advertising space anywhere in the grounds despite the massive additional revenue this would create.
3. If the AELTC were going to frig the draw (and I don't think they have either the inclination or capability to do so) - surely they would frig it so Murray made the final - that would make a Rafa/Roger semi more likely.
Federer fan are crazy.
I'm really looking forward to wimbledon and to be honest I would like a Fedal final however I dont even mind if they play in the semis.
The top four are playing great at the moment and Id love to see them all reach the semi final stage.
If Roger does play Rafa then it is a MUST win match for him, if he loses to him on he beloved Wimbledon AGAIN then I will fear the worse for him
I would change this to "2008-2010 Rafa maybe" because his current level is a notch below his best level, a level which we haven't seen since last year. And while that level might be enough to win RG because of his dominance on the surface, it will be an entirely different proposition at Wimbledon.
I actually prefer Nadal slightly, I just know Federer, on this type of form, is unstoppable at Wimbledon and the US Open.
I am holding my breath for Fedace's expert opinion on this.
(Wow Rafa will have won 5 of the last 6 slams if he wins Wimbledon.That is incredible, and he'd be one slam away - US Open - from having another shot at the dreaded Rafa Slam)
Fedace: Roger Will Lose to Falla in First Round
Our FordStan prognosticator believes an upset is imminent. '11 Wimby draw will include Falla and unretired Ancic in Fed's section, with one of them finishing the job.
Maybe Kafelnikov should take a short break from his golf and poker,ask a wildcard for Wimbledon and have a go at Fed as well? After all he did beat Fed there in 2000,our Swiss still had quite a temper in those days.
I think we should all feel blessed to have such a great analytical mind like esteemed dr. Fedace honoring this forum with his presence.
Holmes: Good morning there Batz! May I thank you for your comments. If I'd have been someone else, I'm sure you'd have been a touch harsher on me!
You've made some very good points, and in doing so have dampened my auto-scepticism. The latter exists in me due to the never ending corruption heard of throughout the bodies of large sporting organizations, from the Olympic committee to FIFA. Whilst it is unfair to tar everyone with the same brush, my negative side tends to take over if I feel there is large money involved for said organizations.
With that in mind, you've made a very good point re. AELTC not seeking more revenue from advertising. I'd not stopped to think of that. As regards the TV contracts already being let, I'm sure they want the same to occur next year, hence higher viewing figures will benefit them. Higher viewing figures will most likely occur with Fedal involved *, as your part time tennis fans will enjoy that particular rivalry also at Wimbledon.
Having Fedal in one half alone would in theory benefit Murray's route to the final, but that'd leave Novak in his side of the draw, so still tough. Although the former would be the lesser of two evils.
Regarding the fixing of draws, be it human made draws or not... well, the following comes to mind. Where there is a will, there is a way. Yes, the sceptic returns!
My problem Batz, is that I believe the following in life; if a system is open to abuse, it will be abused.
However, your points may well lead me to think this particular one isn't open to it. Thanks for calming my dark side
**Mandy, I didn't know that! It just goes to show. In the UK, the figures were higher for 2008 by 2 million plus compared to 2009.
Maybe Federer can win the last two slams of the year in great form to make up for 2008 Wimbledon and 2009 US Open. It probably won't happen, though.
I am gonna pick Federer for Wimbledon. Tentatively, I would pick Djoker for USO, but of course there's still a couple months of play first.
PLANE CRASHING....PLANE CRASHING.......HELP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The weird thing is...there's a 50% chance that a Fedal semifinal would be set up instead.
But then again I think 12 out of 14 times, Djokovic and Federer have been in the same half. That sounds incredibly non-random.
I don't call that a problem Speranza - I call that healthy scepticism I have a very similar outlook.
Only if you think that getting 10 'heads' out of 12 when tossing a coin is 'incredibly non-random'.
Yeah, a football team that starts the season 12-2 while having a completely average team skill level is very lucky.
I'm sorry mate - but I have absolutely no idea what you mean by this or what it has to do with the probablity of Federer being in a given half of the draw.
he shall prevail
This could be his best chance, the competition is a lot tougher at the US open. I notice he is very close to the top 10 now in aces, that's a good sign.
Fact is, and it's been proven scientifically, that the human brain is extremely unfit to recognize randomness. It believes random=alternation, which is wrong. A Bernouilli random sequence is more likely to include streaks of one occurrence or the other than we think.
(I just realized how massive the barrier now is between Rafa and Federer. Federer hasn't beaten Rafa at a slam since 2007. Do you realize how difficult it will be for Federer to overcome this psychologically next time they meet?)
So who wants to place their bets in this thread?
No. I did not hear it first here. You are late to this party.
....Ofcourse federer will have USOpen victory--no one said he will lose in first round..
at least he said in that wimbledon final, that he is glad to take the trophy before Rafa takes it all :???: Roger probably believed in that sentence 3% when he said that (graceful winning Roger) but Rafa burried him later.
Federer was terrible today! Looked a shadow of the player he was in the French Open. His movement in particular was very slow.
Conservation of energy: easing his nearly 30 year old body into the tourney.
Watch his form pick up considerably over his next 3 matches.
I was hoping for another Fedal final, Tsonga could very well be the winner here.
Sure he will (there is a name for that pathology you know: d-e-n-i-a-l)
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