Federer Will Win Wimbledon If...

Vish13

Semi-Pro
He might have won AO this year but frankly his level has been well below to that of 2017. Coric gave him hard time at IW as well and he ran in to 4th consecutive tough match at his happy hunting ground.
Lack of competition is what can make people see him as a favourite but I would have preferred him to be a favourite based on his personal form
 

Plamen1234

Hall of Fame
If he starts playing aggressively like he did last year. Why so much tennis from the baseline when you are the best at the net?
But I believe in Roger. He will bounce back and win Wimbledon.
#Be21eve.
You are very optimistic fan.Some Fed fans are getting very pessimistic after this Halle loss.People see repeat of 2013 now.I think he will improve his game there
 

ak24alive

Legend
You are very optimistic fan.Some Fed fans are getting very pessimistic after this Halle loss.People see repeat of 2013 now.I think he will improve his game there
What can one do other than being optimistic:p? Who knows how little time we have watching the great Roger! I just want to enjoy that little time rather than being overly worried about it. That being said I am worried lol. But I believe in him to bounce back. Afterall he is Roger.
 

Plamen1234

Hall of Fame
What can one do other than being optimistic:p? Who knows how little time we have watching the great Roger! I just want to enjoy that little time rather than being overly worried about it. That being said I am worried lol. But I believe in him to bounce back. Afterall he is Roger.
I see.I am pessimists overall when my favorite sports player/teams play in competition I mean.I want Fed to win Wimby and Germany to win WC but I am not sure that this will happen
 

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
He might have won AO this year but frankly his level has been well below to that of 2017. Coric gave him hard time at IW as well and he ran in to 4th consecutive tough match at his happy hunting ground.
Lack of competition is what can make people see him as a favourite but I would have preferred him to be a favourite based on his personal form
Grass is one surface where competition is still tough. Servebots can show up from nowhere and knock you off if you blink. It is not clay we are talking about.
 

titoelcolombiano

Hall of Fame
Fed will be fine at Wimby - the Halle loss will have nothing to do with it. Ask Thiem about his matches v Nadal at Madrid and Roland Garros
 

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
If he doesn't face a top 25 player on the route to the title and if they tailor the conditions to his liking.



That has zero chance of happening.
He can face a top 25 and win, actually.

Don't you know that Busta, Goffin, Anderson, Thiem, injured Zverev, Delpo , Bautista Agut are all top 25 and a lock for Nadal's draw ?
 

Russeljones

G.O.A.T.
If he starts playing aggressively like he did last year. Why so much tennis from the baseline when you are the best at the net?
But I believe in Roger. He will bounce back and win Wimbledon.
#Be21eve.
Actually, I reckon the baseline preference is an indication of him thinking about his back. This is either super precaution or something's started and he just hasn't spoken about it yet. When you go to the net, you have to stretch, bend and contort.
 

Vish13

Semi-Pro
Grass is one surface where competition is still tough. Servebots can show up from nowhere and knock you off if you blink. It is not clay we are talking about.
Absolutely. And thats why because I don't see his personal form anywhere near to 2017, I don't consider him a favourite.
 

BeatlesFan

Talk Tennis Guru
If he starts playing aggressively like he did last year. Why so much tennis from the baseline when you are the best at the net?
But I believe in Roger. He will bounce back and win Wimbledon.
#Be21eve.
One important thing: Cilic said in his presser yesterday that he has heard the Wimbledon grass is “faster” this year. That definitely is bad for Nadal and Djokovic, but at Fed’s age, it doesn’t help him much either. He is
more susceptible to the big servers on fast grass.
 

Eren

Professional
Fed will be fine at Wimby - the Halle loss will have nothing to do with it. Ask Thiem about his matches v Nadal at Madrid and Roland Garros
I don't like the comparison people make between Nadal's performances at RG vs. Federer's performance at Wimbledon.

If Nadal is in form or 70% of his usual self, he'll win. Nadal winning RG is a matter of time, no other factor is in place. Time will pass on its own and Nadal will win. It's literally like that lol.

With Federer it depends on how he plays, it depends on the draw, it depends on the form of his opponents. It's not even remotely the same.

Nadal winning RG when he is in form happens 99.99% of the time.

Federer (certainly at this age) winning Wimbledon when he is in form (based on his Halle performance, he really isn't) happens 75% of the time.

The percentages are purely based on my own gut feeling. No calculations, rational explanations, or anything alike. It's simply the aura they both have on their preferred surfaces. Nadal's aura >>> Federer's aura IMHO.

Nadal can win and overcome any obstacle it seems, f.e. Djokovic 2013 SF. Federer, on the other hand, is more vulnerable, f.e. Wimbledon 2010 QF vs. Berdych and Wimbledon 2011 QF vs. Tsonga.
 
Not with the current slow, slow conditions at the USO. The court speed last year made Miami look like carpet. Attacking play is next to impossible on that court.
I call the Ashe court: WACAdasa. Bouncier than WACA, slower than Premadasa.

Only cricket fans in this forum will understand. Sorry to tell you that.
 

weakera

Hall of Fame
One important thing: Cilic said in his presser yesterday that he has heard the Wimbledon grass is “faster” this year. That definitely is bad for Nadal and Djokovic, but at Fed’s age, it doesn’t help him much either. He is
more susceptible to the big servers on fast grass.
Speed not nearly as important to Rafael's game as bounce. Speed can actually help him against less physically fit players who otherwise hit big. If the bounce is particularly low, he's in trouble.
 

ak24alive

Legend
One important thing: Cilic said in his presser yesterday that he has heard the Wimbledon grass is “faster” this year. That definitely is bad for Nadal and Djokovic, but at Fed’s age, it doesn’t help him much either. He is
more susceptible to the big servers on fast grass.
Yes. Players like Krygios, Roanic, Muller, Cilic, Delpo, Isner can be a problem for Roger. I am not much worried about his return game. But his serve game needs to be top notch for him to win Wimbledon because if you are playing a zoning big server who is holding his own all it takes is 3 bad serving games and before you know it's over.
But like last year if he can serve 3 aces and one unreturnable being down 15-40 then there is no one right now who can touch him at Wimbledon. The problem is that he is not serving like last year. His serve can be exposed against brilliant returns like Novak and then as they go into rallies, the longer the rally, chances of Roger losing them are more. So hopefully he gets the serve back and he finds a way to shorten the rallies.
 

TennisCJC

Legend
Fed will be fine at Wimby - the Halle loss will have nothing to do with it. Ask Thiem about his matches v Nadal at Madrid and Roland Garros
probably is for me that he doesn't look sharp so far this grass season. my view is movement isn't as quick and power is down. I hope he wins Wimbledon and he will be one of the favorites but I think Wimby is wide open this year.
 

van_Loederen

Semi-Pro
Cilic said in his presser yesterday that he has heard the Wimbledon grass is “faster” this year.
maybe right now or on some outside courts, but it will still grow a little til next week and who knows how short they will mow it.
and the second week will be slow anyway. i mean i doubt that they have changed the soil.
BeatlesFan said:
at Fed’s age, it doesn’t help him much either. He is more susceptible to the big servers on fast grass.
he's more clutch/cool since his comeback and economizes better, tanks games and sometimes sets. (in the past he was usually too stubborn.)
his return has also hardly declined and in close matches with big servers he's now more likely to make the few decisive minibreaks etc.
so fast conditions would definitely help him.

slow conditions otoh harm him - at that age.
his last year Wimbly performance was misleading. he got an easy draw and managed to get through in 3 sets all the time.
if a few opponents manage to take him to 4 or 5, that could quickly turn the tables. at least tire him out for the next match. and that accumulates. in the final he could lose to anyone then.

the AO conditions were really comfortable for him. grass is not exactly comfortable, even if the other players have even harder times on it. Wimbly is physically clearly more demanding than the new AO.

that's also the reason why he played so unspecial from the baseline at Halle and fought til he was completely groggy. it was mostly physical training at that point, an advanced form of it. and he did better than he expected. at 37, after months off, such a performance in back to back tournaments...

if he loses at Wimbly, then most likely because he gets tired out systematically.
(well, Cilic is more consistent and stronger than ever now. possible that he can beat even a fresh Fred.)
 

KINGROGER

G.O.A.T.
Not with the current slow, slow conditions at the USO. The court speed last year made Miami look like carpet. Attacking play is next to impossible on that court.
He’s still among the top favourites easily along with Nadal, Delpo, Cilic, Djokovic. I think uninjured Sunshine double Fed would’ve took the title last year. So didappponting.
 

ak24alive

Legend
Speed not nearly as important to Rafael's game as bounce. Speed can actually help him against less physically fit players who otherwise hit big. If the bounce is particularly low, he's in trouble.
Actually it's both. Low bounce is always Rafa's problem but a power hitter can take time away from Rafa the same way Roger did last year and that can be problematic as we all know.
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
One important thing: Cilic said in his presser yesterday that he has heard the Wimbledon grass is “faster” this year. That definitely is bad for Nadal and Djokovic, but at Fed’s age, it doesn’t help him much either. He is
more susceptible to the big servers on fast grass.
Dustin Brown who just lost at Wimbledon qualies said the opposite, i.e. the grass courts at Wimbledon are slow.
 

Mugu

Rookie
Federer needs to go all in for this year Wimbledon. Realistically speaking this is his last chance for Slam I guess.He is not winning US Open I think and nobody knows in what form he will be 2019.
Realistically?? he might win another 5 slams for all anyone knows... or break his leg tomorrow and retire. can we all agree the future is inherently unpredictable. especially Federer's, it seems. people have been sticking a fork in him for years...
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
Dustin Brown who just lost at Wimbledon qualies said the opposite, i.e. the grass courts at Wimbledon are slow.
Don't think they play the qualies on the same courts/venue. Makes sense they want to preserve grass for the main draw.
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
Don't think they play the qualies on the same courts/venue. Makes sense they want to preserve grass for the main draw.
True.

Every year we get 50 different reports about the speed of the courts at a slam. The fact of the matter is the four favorites are the favorites regardless of the slight speed differential--Federer, Cilic, Nadal, Djokovic--until the other chumps can prove they have what it takes to win a slam.
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
True.

Every year we get 50 different reports about the speed of the courts at a slam. The fact of the matter is the four favorites are the favorites regardless of the slight speed differential--Federer, Cilic, Nadal, Djokovic--until the other chumps can prove they have what it takes to win a slam.
Pretty much. The more things change the more they stay the same.

I do believe there's quite a bit of truth in what poster Dolgopolov said in another thread however. Speed up the surfaces and you'll see more upsets, the slow conditions do help these aging stars prolong their stay. It becomes a battle of tactics and percentages, they can't be blown off court.

Of course that still doesn't excuse young guns from stepping up but I also don't like what the ATP/ITF have done with tennis over the years. Killing variety just can't be good for the sport longterm, they messed up things by slowing down everything.
 

van_Loederen

Semi-Pro
@BeatlesFan
i wanted to add to my above comment that even the first Wimbly week is only barely fast (in the lower region of 'fast' in the speed classification).
Feder has usually little problems with these conditions and they would get slightly slower every day.
that one loss to Tsonga f.i. came in already somewhat slowed-down conditions. faster conditions might have favored Feder in that match/matchup (debatable).

and currently there are no really strong grasscourters (in the narrower sense) around (not even peak Tsonga level).

so i'm sure Feder would rather choose the moderate risk of upsets in somewhat faster conditions.
getting tired out in the modern Wimbly courts has been his single main problem in recent years and it will only get bigger with age.
even someone like Cilic, when against Feder, slightly benefits from somewhat slower and Bo5. the grass wear barely reduces his serve, but would give him a little more time to set up his shots.
 
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