Would you back any Federer to actually beat Djokovic at WB and USO that year (2015) ?
Say Any from 2003-07?
Near 50-50 in my opinion, Fed with a thin edge
Best play - Fed wins. He's almost unplayable when he's on, more so than Djokovic
But 'best play' conjectures are half-story without assessment of how often players hit their best play. By definition virtually, no one plays their best all the time... and Fed does so less often than Djokovic
If Federer wins when each are at their best, than Federer's below his norm more often too - and would probably lose those. The latter is more likely than the former
So take a normal day, and factor in likelihood of each guy upping it to play above or below that
Djokovic can punish Federer's serve in a way no one else did - including Nadal, who was more neutralizing rather than damaging with the shot. That's against the back drop that both players will hold serve comfortably most of the time on grass. And Djoko was at his very best in the '15 final
But those versions of Fed (also '08, I see no significant difference between it and the years you mentioned) certainly returns Djokovic more consistently than he did in '15. Neutralizingly good
And then we get to baseline rallies
- Djoko starting with initiative - in the '15 match, Djoko beat Fed down with persistent rifle shot groundies, somewhat overpowering him. I think he's better at that type of play than Fed ever was... but younger Fed coped with that type very well and much better than in '15, he'd win a bigger share of those types of points than what he did in '15
Nadal got the better Federer in play '06-'08 with shot-making, not beating him down... don't recall Djoko going in for that kind of shot making in '15
- Fed starting with initiative - kills points quickly with 1-2 plays. Not much anyone can do against it
- Neutral starting position scenarios -
- a) if play continues neutrally, Djoko has advantage though not a big one
- b) if Djoko seizes initiative, he attacks moderately, Fed defends well and picks up a few points... likelihood of Djoko going for more on his attacks and reasonable chance of not being able to pull it off are significant. It happened in '14 final
- c) if Federer seizes initiative... he makes errors trying some but when he gets initiative, he closes out points
- d) Fed more likely to seize initiative
Gut feeling - I'd favour the better server and more aggresive court player on grass
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On hard courts, I'd favour Djokovic and that one's easier
As early as '07 he was Federer's equal in play and it was the serve that kept Federer ahead overall
In years to come, Fed's court game declined but I think Djoko's improved more than Fed's declined. And Djoko's serve and return also improved (Fed's serve too - particularly even)
Fed's only been competitive with Djokovic when he's served like a maniac for a good long time now. In his most famous wins - French '11 and Wimby '12 - his serving was well beyond what he was capable of dishing out '03-'08. And its not something he could count on doing on a give day - he's not Pete Sampras
So even if Fed has edge in serve-return complex (and I don't think he does)... Djokovic's stronger in play
For combination of solidity, relatively safe high percentage attacking and equally comfortable defending, Djokovic in '15 is near perfect