Federer Wimbeldon 2008 final vs Djokovic Wimbeldon 2015 final?

Federer Wim08 final vs Djokovic Wim15 final


  • Total voters
    77

ForehandRF

Legend
Yeah, at 29+. And Djokovic barely beat him in those. Djokovic wouldn't cross the finish line every time.
Perhaps but Fed would need to be clutch something like in the 2007 Wimbledon Final but he found a way to beat Rafa in 5 sets and not Nole.It can't be simply age related what happened in their 2011 USO or last year's Wimby Final. You probably mean that Fed would be clutcher and generally more confident in his heyday compared to what he showed in the 2010s and that could be true, but it's hard to believe in that scenario after all that actually happened between them in the 5 setters.Fed has never been inferior level wise and always had the game to beat Nole in those circumstances but somehow when things get tight in these matches that go to the distance, Fed simply can't do it.He should have been 3-1 in 5 setters vs Djokovic right now.
 
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StrongRule

Talk Tennis Guru
True, but Fed didn't started to waste MP in 2010 and we know that he did it even in his best years.Had there not been for matches like 2006 Rome Final or 2005 AO SF, my perspective would have been different.
To be fair, he didn't lose any matches from matchpoints up between Rome 2006 and IW 2010. Starting from 2010 he had a lot of such losses, that's true.
 

ForehandRF

Legend
To be fair, he didn't lose any matches from matchpoints up between Rome 2006 and IW 2010. Starting from 2010 he had a lot of such losses, that's true.
So, he was clutcher back in the day or just simply didn't played a 5 setter vs Djokovic till their 2010 USO SF ? That is the question :)
 

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
@Waspsting what do you think?

I'd favour Djokovic

The key difference is in how his return stacks up against Federer's serve

Federer was serving significantly stronger in 2015 than in 2008... and even then, Djoko pounded anything imperfect back to the baseline

On the flip side, Federer's return in '08 was significantly more reliable than in '15, where he was apt to miss regulation returns. But poor returning at critical times was one of the things that shifted the odds in Nadal's favour to begin with

Everything else... Djoko's showing off the ground is one of the best I've seen in '15. Rifle shot after rifle shot groundie off both sides, and a near wall to boot. Fed is possibly the only player who would have a shot at throwing a spanner into that routine with attacking shots from regulation positions. He's capable of it, but odds would be on Djoko coming out ahead

Then there's net play. Nadal passed exceptionally well. Could Djoko do the same? Odds are against it - again, he's capable, but not likely to turn out a passing blinder, but it'd be harder to approach to him in the first place
---
I prefer to look at these hypotheticals in terms of general form around the periods in question, as narrow as in the tournament in question at most. Narrowing down a hypothetical to 1 match is folly in my opinion

In tennis, you play as well as your allowed to a large extent... looking at a performance in one match, and imposing it against a different opponent leads to too fanciful speculation for my taste

Starting a Wimbledon tournament on opposites sides of the draw, I would back '08 Federer to make it to the final more than '15 Djoko. Fed's more serve-centered and cleaner attacking game is a safer bet against all comers on grass

Comparing just the two finals, Djoko was the more impressive

 

AnOctorokForDinner

Talk Tennis Guru
I'd favour Djokovic

The key difference is in how his return stacks up against Federer's serve

Federer was serving significantly stronger in 2015 than in 2008... and even then, Djoko pounded anything imperfect back to the baseline

On the flip side, Federer's return in '08 was significantly more reliable than in '15, where he was apt to miss regulation returns. But poor returning at critical times was one of the things that shifted the odds in Nadal's favour to begin with

Everything else... Djoko's showing off the ground is one of the best I've seen in '15. Rifle shot after rifle shot groundie off both sides, and a near wall to boot. Fed is possibly the only player who would have a shot at throwing a spanner into that routine with attacking shots from regulation positions. He's capable of it, but odds would be on Djoko coming out ahead

Then there's net play. Nadal passed exceptionally well. Could Djoko do the same? Odds are against it - again, he's capable, but not likely to turn out a passing blinder, but it'd be harder to approach to him in the first place
---
I prefer to look at these hypotheticals in terms of general form around the periods in question, as narrow as in the tournament in question at most. Narrowing down a hypothetical to 1 match is folly in my opinion

In tennis, you play as well as your allowed to a large extent... looking at a performance in one match, and imposing it against a different opponent leads to too fanciful speculation for my taste

Starting a Wimbledon tournament on opposites sides of the draw, I would back '08 Federer to make it to the final more than '15 Djoko. Fed's more serve-centered and cleaner attacking game is a safer bet against all comers on grass

Comparing just the two finals, Djoko was the more impressive


Nadal 2008 was clearly superior to Federer 2015 though other than the serve. "What it tells us?"
 

RS

Bionic Poster
I'd favour Djokovic

The key difference is in how his return stacks up against Federer's serve

Federer was serving significantly stronger in 2015 than in 2008... and even then, Djoko pounded anything imperfect back to the baseline

On the flip side, Federer's return in '08 was significantly more reliable than in '15, where he was apt to miss regulation returns. But poor returning at critical times was one of the things that shifted the odds in Nadal's favour to begin with

Everything else... Djoko's showing off the ground is one of the best I've seen in '15. Rifle shot after rifle shot groundie off both sides, and a near wall to boot. Fed is possibly the only player who would have a shot at throwing a spanner into that routine with attacking shots from regulation positions. He's capable of it, but odds would be on Djoko coming out ahead

Then there's net play. Nadal passed exceptionally well. Could Djoko do the same? Odds are against it - again, he's capable, but not likely to turn out a passing blinder, but it'd be harder to approach to him in the first place
---
I prefer to look at these hypotheticals in terms of general form around the periods in question, as narrow as in the tournament in question at most. Narrowing down a hypothetical to 1 match is folly in my opinion

In tennis, you play as well as your allowed to a large extent... looking at a performance in one match, and imposing it against a different opponent leads to too fanciful speculation for my taste

Starting a Wimbledon tournament on opposites sides of the draw, I would back '08 Federer to make it to the final more than '15 Djoko. Fed's more serve-centered and cleaner attacking game is a safer bet against all comers on grass

Comparing just the two finals, Djoko was the more impressive

Your analysis on full matches are stunning.
 
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ForehandCross

G.O.A.T.
I'd favour Djokovic

The key difference is in how his return stacks up against Federer's serve

Federer was serving significantly stronger in 2015 than in 2008... and even then, Djoko pounded anything imperfect back to the baseline

On the flip side, Federer's return in '08 was significantly more reliable than in '15, where he was apt to miss regulation returns. But poor returning at critical times was one of the things that shifted the odds in Nadal's favour to begin with

Everything else... Djoko's showing off the ground is one of the best I've seen in '15. Rifle shot after rifle shot groundie off both sides, and a near wall to boot. Fed is possibly the only player who would have a shot at throwing a spanner into that routine with attacking shots from regulation positions. He's capable of it, but odds would be on Djoko coming out ahead

Then there's net play. Nadal passed exceptionally well. Could Djoko do the same? Odds are against it - again, he's capable, but not likely to turn out a passing blinder, but it'd be harder to approach to him in the first place
---
I prefer to look at these hypotheticals in terms of general form around the periods in question, as narrow as in the tournament in question at most. Narrowing down a hypothetical to 1 match is folly in my opinion

In tennis, you play as well as your allowed to a large extent... looking at a performance in one match, and imposing it against a different opponent leads to too fanciful speculation for my taste

Starting a Wimbledon tournament on opposites sides of the draw, I would back '08 Federer to make it to the final more than '15 Djoko. Fed's more serve-centered and cleaner attacking game is a safer bet against all comers on grass

Comparing just the two finals, Djoko was the more impressive


Would you back any Federer to actually beat Djokovic at WB and USO that year (2015) ?

Say Any from 2003-07?
 

BrokenGears

Semi-Pro
I'd favour Djokovic

The key difference is in how his return stacks up against Federer's serve

Federer was serving significantly stronger in 2015 than in 2008... and even then, Djoko pounded anything imperfect back to the baseline

On the flip side, Federer's return in '08 was significantly more reliable than in '15, where he was apt to miss regulation returns. But poor returning at critical times was one of the things that shifted the odds in Nadal's favour to begin with

Everything else... Djoko's showing off the ground is one of the best I've seen in '15. Rifle shot after rifle shot groundie off both sides, and a near wall to boot. Fed is possibly the only player who would have a shot at throwing a spanner into that routine with attacking shots from regulation positions. He's capable of it, but odds would be on Djoko coming out ahead

Then there's net play. Nadal passed exceptionally well. Could Djoko do the same? Odds are against it - again, he's capable, but not likely to turn out a passing blinder, but it'd be harder to approach to him in the first place
---
I prefer to look at these hypotheticals in terms of general form around the periods in question, as narrow as in the tournament in question at most. Narrowing down a hypothetical to 1 match is folly in my opinion

In tennis, you play as well as your allowed to a large extent... looking at a performance in one match, and imposing it against a different opponent leads to too fanciful speculation for my taste

Starting a Wimbledon tournament on opposites sides of the draw, I would back '08 Federer to make it to the final more than '15 Djoko. Fed's more serve-centered and cleaner attacking game is a safer bet against all comers on grass

Comparing just the two finals, Djoko was the more impressive


Thanks for the fantastic breakdown! Definitely agree to a large extent with what you've posted. Actually watched the 2015 match this past week, Djokovic was as good as I remember
 

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Would you back any Federer to actually beat Djokovic at WB and USO that year (2015) ?
Say Any from 2003-07?

Near 50-50 in my opinion, Fed with a thin edge

Best play - Fed wins. He's almost unplayable when he's on, more so than Djokovic

But 'best play' conjectures are half-story without assessment of how often players hit their best play. By definition virtually, no one plays their best all the time... and Fed does so less often than Djokovic

If Federer wins when each are at their best, than Federer's below his norm more often too - and would probably lose those. The latter is more likely than the former

So take a normal day, and factor in likelihood of each guy upping it to play above or below that

Djokovic can punish Federer's serve in a way no one else did - including Nadal, who was more neutralizing rather than damaging with the shot. That's against the back drop that both players will hold serve comfortably most of the time on grass. And Djoko was at his very best in the '15 final

But those versions of Fed (also '08, I see no significant difference between it and the years you mentioned) certainly returns Djokovic more consistently than he did in '15. Neutralizingly good

And then we get to baseline rallies

- Djoko starting with initiative - in the '15 match, Djoko beat Fed down with persistent rifle shot groundies, somewhat overpowering him. I think he's better at that type of play than Fed ever was... but younger Fed coped with that type very well and much better than in '15, he'd win a bigger share of those types of points than what he did in '15

Nadal got the better Federer in play '06-'08 with shot-making, not beating him down... don't recall Djoko going in for that kind of shot making in '15

- Fed starting with initiative - kills points quickly with 1-2 plays. Not much anyone can do against it

- Neutral starting position scenarios -

- a) if play continues neutrally, Djoko has advantage though not a big one

- b) if Djoko seizes initiative, he attacks moderately, Fed defends well and picks up a few points... likelihood of Djoko going for more on his attacks and reasonable chance of not being able to pull it off are significant. It happened in '14 final

- c) if Federer seizes initiative... he makes errors trying some but when he gets initiative, he closes out points

- d) Fed more likely to seize initiative

Gut feeling - I'd favour the better server and more aggresive court player on grass
---

On hard courts, I'd favour Djokovic and that one's easier
As early as '07 he was Federer's equal in play and it was the serve that kept Federer ahead overall

In years to come, Fed's court game declined but I think Djoko's improved more than Fed's declined. And Djoko's serve and return also improved (Fed's serve too - particularly even)

Fed's only been competitive with Djokovic when he's served like a maniac for a good long time now. In his most famous wins - French '11 and Wimby '12 - his serving was well beyond what he was capable of dishing out '03-'08. And its not something he could count on doing on a give day - he's not Pete Sampras

So even if Fed has edge in serve-return complex (and I don't think he does)... Djokovic's stronger in play

For combination of solidity, relatively safe high percentage attacking and equally comfortable defending, Djokovic in '15 is near perfect
 

ForehandRF

Legend
Near 50-50 in my opinion, Fed with a thin edge

Best play - Fed wins. He's almost unplayable when he's on, more so than Djokovic

But 'best play' conjectures are half-story without assessment of how often players hit their best play. By definition virtually, no one plays their best all the time... and Fed does so less often than Djokovic

If Federer wins when each are at their best, than Federer's below his norm more often too - and would probably lose those. The latter is more likely than the former

So take a normal day, and factor in likelihood of each guy upping it to play above or below that

Djokovic can punish Federer's serve in a way no one else did - including Nadal, who was more neutralizing rather than damaging with the shot. That's against the back drop that both players will hold serve comfortably most of the time on grass. And Djoko was at his very best in the '15 final

But those versions of Fed (also '08, I see no significant difference between it and the years you mentioned) certainly returns Djokovic more consistently than he did in '15. Neutralizingly good

And then we get to baseline rallies

- Djoko starting with initiative - in the '15 match, Djoko beat Fed down with persistent rifle shot groundies, somewhat overpowering him. I think he's better at that type of play than Fed ever was... but younger Fed coped with that type very well and much better than in '15, he'd win a bigger share of those types of points than what he did in '15

Nadal got the better Federer in play '06-'08 with shot-making, not beating him down... don't recall Djoko going in for that kind of shot making in '15

- Fed starting with initiative - kills points quickly with 1-2 plays. Not much anyone can do against it

- Neutral starting position scenarios -

- a) if play continues neutrally, Djoko has advantage though not a big one

- b) if Djoko seizes initiative, he attacks moderately, Fed defends well and picks up a few points... likelihood of Djoko going for more on his attacks and reasonable chance of not being able to pull it off are significant. It happened in '14 final

- c) if Federer seizes initiative... he makes errors trying some but when he gets initiative, he closes out points

- d) Fed more likely to seize initiative

Gut feeling - I'd favour the better server and more aggresive court player on grass
---

On hard courts, I'd favour Djokovic and that one's easier
As early as '07 he was Federer's equal in play and it was the serve that kept Federer ahead overall

In years to come, Fed's court game declined but I think Djoko's improved more than Fed's declined. And Djoko's serve and return also improved (Fed's serve too - particularly even)

Fed's only been competitive with Djokovic when he's served like a maniac for a good long time now. In his most famous wins - French '11 and Wimby '12 - his serving was well beyond what he was capable of dishing out '03-'08. And its not something he could count on doing on a give day - he's not Pete Sampras

So even if Fed has edge in serve-return complex (and I don't think he does)... Djokovic's stronger in play

For combination of solidity, relatively safe high percentage attacking and equally comfortable defending, Djokovic in '15 is near perfect
Very good analysis in general, but let me disagree with the bolded..Djokovic was not equal in play with Fed, on hardcourts, sooner than 2011.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Near 50-50 in my opinion, Fed with a thin edge

Best play - Fed wins. He's almost unplayable when he's on, more so than Djokovic

But 'best play' conjectures are half-story without assessment of how often players hit their best play. By definition virtually, no one plays their best all the time... and Fed does so less often than Djokovic

If Federer wins when each are at their best, than Federer's below his norm more often too - and would probably lose those. The latter is more likely than the former

So take a normal day, and factor in likelihood of each guy upping it to play above or below that

Djokovic can punish Federer's serve in a way no one else did - including Nadal, who was more neutralizing rather than damaging with the shot. That's against the back drop that both players will hold serve comfortably most of the time on grass. And Djoko was at his very best in the '15 final

But those versions of Fed (also '08, I see no significant difference between it and the years you mentioned) certainly returns Djokovic more consistently than he did in '15. Neutralizingly good

And then we get to baseline rallies

- Djoko starting with initiative - in the '15 match, Djoko beat Fed down with persistent rifle shot groundies, somewhat overpowering him. I think he's better at that type of play than Fed ever was... but younger Fed coped with that type very well and much better than in '15, he'd win a bigger share of those types of points than what he did in '15

Nadal got the better Federer in play '06-'08 with shot-making, not beating him down... don't recall Djoko going in for that kind of shot making in '15

- Fed starting with initiative - kills points quickly with 1-2 plays. Not much anyone can do against it

- Neutral starting position scenarios -

- a) if play continues neutrally, Djoko has advantage though not a big one

- b) if Djoko seizes initiative, he attacks moderately, Fed defends well and picks up a few points... likelihood of Djoko going for more on his attacks and reasonable chance of not being able to pull it off are significant. It happened in '14 final

- c) if Federer seizes initiative... he makes errors trying some but when he gets initiative, he closes out points

- d) Fed more likely to seize initiative

Gut feeling - I'd favour the better server and more aggresive court player on grass
---

On hard courts, I'd favour Djokovic and that one's easier
As early as '07 he was Federer's equal in play and it was the serve that kept Federer ahead overall

In years to come, Fed's court game declined but I think Djoko's improved more than Fed's declined. And Djoko's serve and return also improved (Fed's serve too - particularly even)

Fed's only been competitive with Djokovic when he's served like a maniac for a good long time now. In his most famous wins - French '11 and Wimby '12 - his serving was well beyond what he was capable of dishing out '03-'08. And its not something he could count on doing on a give day - he's not Pete Sampras

So even if Fed has edge in serve-return complex (and I don't think he does)... Djokovic's stronger in play

For combination of solidity, relatively safe high percentage attacking and equally comfortable defending, Djokovic in '15 is near perfect
Not as often as Djokovic? The same Djokovic who lost plenty of slams to Murray, Stan and Nishikori?
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
Very good analysis in general, but let me disagree with the bolded..Djokovic was not equal in play with Fed, on hardcourts, sooner than 2011.

From 2007 Canada to 2009 Basel, they were tied at 4-4 on hardcourt in that timeframe. It wasn't until 2010, when Djokovic's level dipped that Federer went 4-1 against him. Of course that was reversed in 2011.
 

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Your analysis on full matches are stunning.

Thanks. Reece?

Djokovic was not equal in play with Fed, on hardcourts, sooner than 2011.

Are we thinking of the same thing when we say 'in play'? The way I use the phrase means starting from neutral positions, i.e. without the serve (or return) giving a player an initiative

I've statt-ed 13 matches between the two pre-2011 - 12 hard court, 1 clay

Federer wins 9, Djokovic 4... no surprises there

Points won in play (i.e. sans unreturned serves and double faults) - Federer leads in 7, Djokovic 6
Second serve points won, sans double faults - Djokovic leads in 7, Federer 6

Would you expect this, if Federer was better in play (while obviously having the better serve), especially given he won 9/13 matches?

mitigating factors for the opinion you hold is Djoko's superior return having a hand in the second serve numbers

on the other hand, even with serves returned, Fed's would leave him strong starting position more often than Djoko, contributing to Fed's lead in point in play numbers

Also, Djoko's second serve for most of this period was at best average (and as often as not, less than that)... compared to Fed's good one
 
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mike danny

Bionic Poster
Call me crazy, but if Fed almost beat his worst match-up, I don't think he loses to Novak. 2009 is a different matter.
 
Federer losing in 2008 to an effing clay courter with no serve and with a moonball to opponent BH as his biggest weapon, in Wimbledon of all places, is one of the biggest WTF results in recent tennis history. Imagine the upset of Becker, Sampras, Edberg and all other past grass greats about that result, smh... :oops:
 

RS

Bionic Poster
Federer losing in 2008 to an effing clay courter with no serve and with a moonball to opponent BH as his biggest weapon, in Wimbledon of all places, is one of the biggest WTF results in recent tennis history. Imagine the upset of Becker, Sampras, Edberg and all other past grass greats about that result, smh... :oops:
He wouldn’t lose to Djokovic though.
 
He wouldn’t lose to Djokovic though.
Maybe, who knows. In a match between two grass legends anything is possible. One thing is for certain though, 2015 Djokovic would be having a lesson or two for Federer of how to deal with a clay courter on grass in a most swift, efficient and elegant manner, that's for sure. ;)
 
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