Federer's chance at reaching #1 in early 2018

Qubax

Qubax

Professional
Sorry to bring this up again as I feel as though I have posted about this topic on a few threads.

But, I think that if Federer has a chance to reach world #1 before the Australian Open, which means his only shot to gain points would be Brisbane (since Hopman cup is a prestigious exo), that Roger needs to take his chance.

He has 700 or so more points to defend at the Aussie open then Nadal does, and the task of staying ahead doesn't get easier with Indian Wells and Miami.

Sure, there is every possibility that Roger returns to number #1 and then loses it by bowing out in the 4th round of the Aussie open. But being #1 at Age 36, and in 2018 (14ish years since he was first #1) would be amazing.

I realize that Jan of 2018 is not a Year End #1, and only may mean a few weeks at #1, but even getting there, for even a short time - I believe is worth it.

Especially because it is probably his last crack at it.
 
I mean, even now he's overplaying.

He didn't need Dubai, Stuttgart, or Canada this year.

Next year skip all those (plus Hopman) and add Cincy only.
 
Firstservingman said:
He shouldn't play Hopman Cup, that's for sure.
Zero points and a complete waste of time and energy.

Either play Brisbane and become #1, or save yourself for the AO.
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Its a highly paid practice season. Not just the matches but he has assess to decent hitting partners and very relaxed low stress {mental and physical} warm up. If he didn't do Hopman then he'd be chasing easy money at Doha, just ATP 250. No one has stated how much Hopman Cup pay Federer but must be sizable as the Tournament required State and Federal money to secure his attendance. Historically they have not had an issue with money so assume his appearance fee is very sizable.
 
PMChambers said:
Its a highly paid practice season. Not just the matches but he has assess to decent hitting partners and very relaxed low stress {mental and physical} warm up. If he didn't do Hopman then he'd be chasing easy money at Doha, just ATP 250. No one has stated how much Hopman Cup pay Federer but must be sizable as the Tournament required State and Federal money to secure his attendance. Historically they have not had an issue with money so assume his appearance fee is very sizable.
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Probably right.
There's every chance he's making bank by showing up in Perth. If so, good on him.
 
Qubax said:
Sorry to bring this up again as I feel as though I have posted about this topic on a few threads.

But, I think that if Federer has a chance to reach world #1 before the Australian Open, which means his only shot to gain points would be Brisbane (since Hopman cup is a prestigious exo), that Roger needs to take his chance.

He has 700 or so more points to defend at the Aussie open then Nadal does, and the task of staying ahead doesn't get easier with Indian Wells and Miami.

Sure, there is every possibility that Roger returns to number #1 and then loses it by bowing out in the 4th round of the Aussie open. But being #1 at Age 36, and in 2018 (14ish years since he was first #1) would be amazing.

I realize that Jan of 2018 is not a Year End #1, and only may mean a few weeks at #1, but even getting there, for even a short time - I believe is worth it.

Especially because it is probably his last crack at it.
Click to expand...
Yep, it’s worth it. I would also add that Federer’s chances to reach #1 at the beginning of 2018 are more dependent on a Nadal early exit in AO 2018 than in Federer winning some small tournament(s) before AO 2018, always given that Federer repeats AO crown.
 
Federer will get #1 during clay season.

Nadal is defending over 4,500 points and if Fed played Madrid let's say to get 600 and made French semifinal. You get the picture.
 
BGod said:
Federer will get #1 during clay season.

Nadal is defending over 4,500 points and if Fed played Madrid let's say to get 600 and made French semifinal. You get the picture.
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Would agree if Federer can successfully defend at least half of his 4,000 combined ranking points of AO + IW + Miami 2017
 
BGod said:
Federer will get #1 during clay season.

Nadal is defending over 4,500 points and if Fed played Madrid let's say to get 600 and made French semifinal. You get the picture.
Click to expand...

That. Basically, if Federer wins AO again (or makes the final while Nadal doesn't), it should either bag him #1 directly (provided he wins the Masters on Sunday, of course) or put him in such a position that he'll be able to decide whether he wants it or not. He can score relatively big points (ie more than enough) in Rotterdam (he probably won't play this one, but you never know, I'd rather he skipped Miami instead) and Dubai, if need be, and he doesn't even have to repeat his double success at IW-Miami, he just has to not lose too much ground on Nadal there. Then, he can make up a lot by playing a couple of tournaments on clay (or just if Nadal goes bust in a few, which is always a possibility at his age).

Key here are the Masters and AO. The rest should take care of itself. ;)
 
Holman cup made sense this year. Why is he playing there in 2018 after one of the best seasons of his life. He is close to number 1, he needs to make the most of it.
 
Federer already explained in detail he is not going after the #1 ranking in January, so all these endless threads are kind of a waste of time.

This is what he just said yesterday:

"Look, it's not a realistic goal in some ways, the world number one. It is interesting. It's the ultimate achievement in tennis in some ways, it always has been for me. But at this age, it just can't be because I think I'll make mistakes if I start chasing it. I'm not sure how much the body allows me to chase goals like this. Maybe if I start thinking about it too often and too much, I think I'm maybe also not playing the way I'm supposed to be playing.
Maybe I tense up, maybe I'm nervous, maybe that's not good for my back. Who knows what it is."

http://www.sport24.co.za/Tennis/ATPTour/year-end-top-ranking-not-realistic-federer-20171117
 
I haven't heard him make any recent comments about becoming No. 1. I take a break from tennis viewing until Aussie Open.
But I would say that the number 20 is what he thinks about far more than No. 1.
 
a10best said:
I haven't heard him make any recent comments about becoming No. 1. I take a break from tennis viewing until Aussie Open.
But I would say that the number 20 is what he thinks about far more than No. 1.
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http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/federer-nitto-atp-finals-2017-thursday-reaction-atp

"It is interesting," Federer said following a three-set win over Marin Cilic to close out a perfect run through Group Boris Becker. "It's the ultimate achievement in tennis. It always has been for me. But at this age, it just can't be because I think I'll make mistakes if I start chasing it.

"I'm not sure how much the body allows me to chase goals like this. Maybe if I start thinking about it too often and too much, I think I'm maybe also not playing the way I'm supposed to be playing, maybe I tense up, maybe I'm nervous, maybe that's not good for my back. Who knows what it is.

"I have 2,000 points to defend in Australia, [Nadal] doesn't. So there's the problem already. I know he has a lot of points to defend, too, in Australia, but not as many as me. That's why I always said, look, it's not a realistic goal in some ways. I still need to win this tournament before it's actually really close. The year played out the way it did and Rafa was better. He deserves to be there. I'm really happy for him because he had a rough season as well in '16. It's great for him."
 
BeatlesFan said:
Federer already explained in detail he is not going after the #1 ranking in January, so all these endless threads are kind of a waste of time.

This is what he just said yesterday:

"Look, it's not a realistic goal in some ways, the world number one. It is interesting. It's the ultimate achievement in tennis in some ways, it always has been for me. But at this age, it just can't be because I think I'll make mistakes if I start chasing it. I'm not sure how much the body allows me to chase goals like this. Maybe if I start thinking about it too often and too much, I think I'm maybe also not playing the way I'm supposed to be playing.
Maybe I tense up, maybe I'm nervous, maybe that's not good for my back. Who knows what it is."

http://www.sport24.co.za/Tennis/ATPTour/year-end-top-ranking-not-realistic-federer-20171117
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Totally. He's not going after it *now*. But just you wait if he's just a couple hundred points behind Nadal after the AO... ;)
 
Please rog play Brisbane, win it and become #1 for atleast 3 weeks. If he does much better than Rafa in AO, it continues
 
Dont think he will focus on getting to #1. He has clearly shown that his focus is to play tourneys he can win, and longevity. If he gets it before clay season next year will depend much on Rafa.
 
Firstservingman said:
He shouldn't play Hopman Cup, that's for sure.
Zero points and a complete waste of time and energy.

Either play Brisbane and become #1, or save yourself for the AO.
Click to expand...
He's going to play a warm-up tournament. Would be dumb to walk into AO stone match cold. And he's committed already to play Hopman Cup - I doubt he tells the Swiss team to go fly a kite once he's healthy enough to play.
 
Zebrev said:
Holman cup made sense this year. Why is he playing there in 2018 after one of the best seasons of his life. He is close to number 1, he needs to make the most of it.
Click to expand...
You sure Fed needs to make the most of it, or you - want - to make the most of it?
 
pame said:
You sure Fed needs to make the most of it, or you - want - to make the most of it?
Click to expand...

It's all a question of priorities, imho. For the end of year, Basel + WTF was more important to him than #1. Likewise, at the beginning of next year, #1 will definitely take a backseat to AO in his mind. But after AO is done, if he's close enough (heck, he might even *be* #1 at that stage, depending on how things go), his next goal as far as tournaments go will be Wimbledon, which will give him a bit of leeway to try and go for #1.
 
BeatlesFan said:
Federer already explained in detail he is not going after the #1 ranking in January, so all these endless threads are kind of a waste of time.

This is what he just said yesterday:

"Look, it's not a realistic goal in some ways, the world number one. It is interesting. It's the ultimate achievement in tennis in some ways, it always has been for me. But at this age, it just can't be because I think I'll make mistakes if I start chasing it. I'm not sure how much the body allows me to chase goals like this. Maybe if I start thinking about it too often and too much, I think I'm maybe also not playing the way I'm supposed to be playing.
Maybe I tense up, maybe I'm nervous, maybe that's not good for my back. Who knows what it is."

http://www.sport24.co.za/Tennis/ATPTour/year-end-top-ranking-not-realistic-federer-20171117
Click to expand...

He is just being his usual self.

He doesn't want to get ahead of himself by stating things that depend on many things (whether he wins the WTF, whether he does well at the AO and Miami/IW, how the draws will turn out to be with Djokovic, Murray and Wawa returning, whether his health will hold up).

I think that if he is within a striking distance he will go for it, unless it is too close to the grass court season.

:cool:
 
If he would have just played Brisbane and won it he'd pass Ralph.

Would have been cool for him to reach #1 at Brisbane, same place he won his 1000th match.

Maybe if he wins Melbourne again he'll get it since Nadal likely doesn't make the final again?
 
merlinpinpin said:
It's all a question of priorities, imho. For the end of year, Basel + WTF was more important to him than #1. Likewise, at the beginning of next year, #1 will definitely take a backseat to AO in his mind. But after AO is done, if he's close enough (heck, he might even *be* #1 at that stage, depending on how things go), his next goal as far as tournaments go will be Wimbledon, which will give him a bit of leeway to try and go for #1.
Click to expand...
That makes sense to me. Chasing after his tail to scramble to play Brisbane to try for 250 points (which he might not even get) seems dubious
 
I think we can assume if Fed wins the WTF, that his team will let him know where the math is.

The numbers will be close enough that a win or final in a ATP250 would do the trick.

I suppose he'd be the #1 seed for the Aussie Open if he got it early 2018
 
Qubax said:
I think we can assume if Fed wins the WTF, that his team will let him know where the math is.

The numbers will be close enough that a win or final in a ATP250 would do the trick.

I suppose he'd be the #1 seed for the Aussie Open if he got it early 2018
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ALREADY COMMITTED TO THE HOPMAN CUP.
 
If he prepares well and remains not injured for the AO and the masters, he will reach no 1 sometime before the clay season. Nadal also went deep in AO, IW and Miami last year. If he gets tripped up by a random guy in the early rounds of one of these tournaments Fed only needs to go deep in all of them to get the no 1. Still I’d prefer Fed win the AO outright. Only Delpo, Zverev and Nadal van trouble him. Delpo somehow always under performs in australia. Zed doesn’t like Bo5 format. Nadal is still the biggest challenge however his knees are not doing that well at the moment.
 
moonballs said:
If he prepares well and remains not injured for the AO and the masters, he will reach no 1 sometime before the clay season. Nadal also went deep in AO, IW and Miami last year. If he gets tripped up by a random guy in the early rounds of one of these tournaments Fed only needs to go deep in all of them to get the no 1. Still I’d prefer Fed win the AO outright. Only Delpo, Zverev and Nadal van trouble him. Delpo somehow always under performs in australia. Zed doesn’t like Bo5 format. Nadal is still the biggest challenge however his knees are not doing that well at the moment.
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Nadal was out in 4R at IW (taken out by fed)
 
IF Rog wins AO he’s gonna have to make a quick move to get there (to #1 I mean). He’s got a LOT of points to fight to keep coming up. I don’t see him going on to win everything he won last year. (Of course I didn’t see him winning at all last year so we’ll see...)
 
D.Nalby12 said:
Federer may get it at some point but it's hard to see him staying there for long time with his very Short schedule.
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That's the initial thought but then one remembers the gap between #2 & #3,4 so it becomes a game against Nadal and Rafa himself has a mammoth amount of points to defend on clay. Fed can also pick up a lot at USO to hedge bets against Shanghai if he skips that tournament this year and his WTF performance leaves him with 900 up for grabs there.
 
If Fred wins Dubai he takes it for a week.

Nadal has the Acapulco final to defend. Fed only has 2R in Dubai to defend.
 
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