Federer's chance at reaching #1 in early 2018
- Thread starter Qubax
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MasturB
Legend
Really tough tbh. Rog has 2045 pts to defend amongst Dubai-IW-MIA.
If he's not playing clay it's gonna be tougher.
FiReFTW
Legend
Nadal also has a ton of points to defend, and we don't know yet how long he will be out.
metsman
Talk Tennis Guru
if he wins AO he should definitely play Rotterdam and Dubai to get the ranking and skip Miami. Nadal will likely get it back after IW/Miami, but if he doesn't defend everything on clay Fed could get it right back too.
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Deleted member 77403
Guest
If Nadal starts bleeding points during the clay season, it is possible Federer can be enjoying himself in the Alps and watch the number one ranking fall into his lap.
That would be sensible. he only needs to get no1 once. Holding on to it is irrelevant and would conflict with his current strategy to extend his play and win big tournaments. Considering he is the only one of the big four not banged up or in a health clinic or hospital, despite being 5 years older and not even in their era, he clearly got the strategy right
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Deleted member 77403
Guest
Federer wins AO, the gap is going to be too big for Nadal to overcome. Nadal is not getting 21 slams. So, should it happen, Federer is playing with house money going forwards, and just needs a small stint as world number one, he doesn't need more year ending number ones.
metsman
Talk Tennis Guru
Actually considering there's no way Nadal will play Acapulco, Fed will probably get it anyways if he wins AO because Nadal defends 300 points there.
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Deleted member 77403
Guest
Well there you go then. I also see the slam chase effectively ending if Federer is holding the trophy this Sunday. No way back for Nadal.
I think youre right cos if fed gets to 20 that is serious pressure off, it would be almost unconceivable for nads to get 21 slams now that 1 slam has already passed this year, wimby the other slam and I suspect djokovic will be back by USO and WTF. Feds could really free up and do what he wants.
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Deleted member 77403
Guest
Yeah, the way I see it, and we talking IF Federer wins this Sunday.
The slam gap will be back to four, that was the slam gap after US 2013, which means in four and half years, nothing has really changed, with the exception of Nadal being older, carrying more injuries and four and half years closer to retirement. The fall of Nadal after 2013 hurt his chances badly, he was picking up the pace, but really struggled thereafter, and even last year, despite winning multiple slams, he could not stop Federer from shifting the goal posts. The gap back to four will put pressure on Nadal, we know how he struggles to defend non clay titles, his USO will be not be a gimme and the pressure at RG will be crazy high...because if he loses that, then forget about it.
Also off topic, but whenever you can, what do you reckon regarding djok of a few years ago vs fed at AO 2017/ IW/ miami level of play? What would feds chances be? I was thinking fed lucked out big time with no djok as that level of play would be demolished by djok but then I was thinking with how early fed was taking the ball, the neo backhand, relentlessness how djok does have problems with certain types of players and that would be one of them??
Yeah agreed well its depending now on if fed can pull it off this AO, again at his age its likely-ish but anything could happen, berdych could clean his clocks. 2013 screwed it for nads and fed fans have djoker to thank for that 7-0 7-0 demolition which took a lot from nads then again he stopped fed loads too
Id be surprised if Federer changes his schedule in an effort to grab #1
I would too but IF he wins AO2018, IF, a hell of an IF, then all he needs is Dubai which he will play anyway due to contract and one tournament. I dont think he will change schedule to keep no 1 as thats irrelevant he has every no 1 stat needed and no1 chasing conflicts with his main goal of slams and longevity
NBP
Hall of Fame
lol.
How is that funny? Its a genuine thought, im in two minds. Grandpa fed convincingly beat djok in bo3 and in faster courts but got beat in slams too quite convincingly but still won sets. How would the 2017 fare up. Djok struggles with that style of play and fed is now used to the racket but is older. I think fed will win easily sometimes, then I think no he wont. I dont know. What do you reckon then?
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Deleted member 77403
Guest
Are you talking of peak Djokovic vs Federer from 2017? I think the only place Federer could win would be IW, and even that is not a guarantee against peak Djokovic. But at AO, and Miami against peak Djokovic, I can only see a win for Djokovic. Federer's issue would be that he would be put on the back foot from an insane amount of returns into his feet, and Djokovic is superb at redirection of the ball, he would expose Federer's movement, especially out to his forehand side which is still a vulnerability.
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Deleted member 77403
Guest
If Fed win AO and ends the chase this Sunday, the historical significance of what Djokovic did in 2011-2012 to Nadal cannot be underestimated.
I was thinking 2015, 2016 the times when fed and djok actually met at slam finals. Those encounters went to 4 sets and fed did beat novak in bo3 fast matchups. So what would happen if 2017 fed showed up instead of 2015 or 2016 fed. Not absolute Peak djokovic vs 2017 fed as then of course peak djok level would smoke a 2017 fed
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Deleted member 77403
Guest
I think Federer would have liked his chances against Djokovic at AO 2015, that was not one of his stronger finishes, despite having to go through the defending champion Wawrinka, his level was good, but not so unbelievable. I think Djokovic 2016 in the semi and final was about as close to perfection as you were likely to get. That was Djokovic in Earth's Mightiest Warrior mode, that month of January, where he fed break sticks to Federer, Nadal and Murray. Djokovic no doubt wins there.
Wimbledon would be interesting though, I think Federer 2017 would beat Djokovic of 2014, but not 2015, I think only peak Federer takes that version of Djokovic out.
USO, well Federer was hurt, so not much of a comparison, his level was far better in 2015.
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Deleted member 77403
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Yes, because fates and destinies are decided by threads created on TTW
Yeah thanks for sharing, I was thinking basically the same but couldn't make my mind up. Particularly with AO 2015 where djok was playing very well but not amazing
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Deleted member 77403
Guest
I think AO 2015 would have been the one for Federer to strike, if he had his 2017 form.
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Deleted member 512391
Guest
As you have already mentioned in several of your posts, I think that the slam run had ended in last year's final, it was Nadal's ideal chance to narrow the gap between the two (17-15) and to end up the year with just one Major behind (I think that Fed would've won Wimbledon anyway). But he lost and the chance died with his failure. Those five gems of the fifth set...
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Deleted member 77403
Guest
Pretty much. The things that could have sealed Nadal's fate. Djokovic's 2011-2012 run and Federer 3-1 down in the fifth last year.
Chanwan
G.O.A.T.
Acapulco is a month from now. If it's only a muscle injury, no reason Rafa can't be ready for that.
All this is conditioned on Fed winning the AO, something he's still quite a bit removed from doing. But if he does and Rafa doesn't play Acapulco, Fed becomes no. 1.
If Rafa repeats his RU in Acapulco and Fed wins AO + Dubai, Fed also becomes no. 1.
And if Rafa starts bleeding points during the clay season, Fed could become no. 1 even without winning the AO (but he would need some hefty points from either AO or Dubai-IW-Miami.
Let's not forget that Rafa's taken a far few more close ones from Fed than the other way round.
While true, let's also not forget that Djoko has hurt Fed more in the slam race than he's hurt Rafa.
But first and foremost: Let Federer finish this. I for one feel anything but certain that he will
zagor
Bionic Poster
Novak did halt Nadal's momentum single-handedly there, Nadal would have went to town on the field in 2011 if not for Novak entering his peak. He dented Nadal's aura of impervious mental toughness in big matches the way no player did before or since.
That said, Novak also took away so many potental slam opportunities from Fed (2008, 2011 and 2016 AO, 2014 and 2015 Wimbledon, 2015 USO) so not sure the slam gap between Fedal would have been that much diffferent without Novak in the mix. Nadal would have definitely had spent more time at #1 though.
zagor
Bionic Poster
In pure numbers yes but stopping Nadal's momentum from 2010 could have been even more significant in the long run. Nadal was about to have back-to-back dominant years for the only time in his career in 2010-2011 before Novak came around and made him crack repeteadly in big moments. I think it reduced Nadal's intimidation against the rest of the field.
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Deleted member 77403
Guest
I agree that Djokovic took a lot of potential opportunities away from Federer. But here is the thing...apart from AO 2008, the real damage he did to Fed was after what happened to Nadal. If Djokovic didn't turn up, then we have no idea what would happened in those slams. The timeline comes from what happened in 2011, when everything turned upside down. What we do know is that Nadal would have won something like 5 slams in a row in that period, and probably by the end of 2013 possibly equal with Federer.
novak basically completely took away from nads slams and masters that he almost certainly would have won if not for novak. He also did a hell of a lot on soft factors such as Novak destroying the nadal big match aura, nads finals record etc and now it can be convincingly argued peak novak is superior to peak nadal which is legacy damaging for nads. I think in particular he thrashed nads finals record as nads is the type of player to only get to a final if his level is very high so his odds of winning a final are good as if he isnt playing good he will get knocked out much earlier unlike fed or djokovic who make finals even if playing subpar but then will lose the final if still subpar.
He did take of course take away from fed but nothing legacy damaging, nadal he really crushed.
The timeline is important too, he took away from nads first and then took away from fed. If nads wasn't stopped by djok when it happened then nads would have run away with wimb 08, AO 09, 2010, and then a 2011
zagor
Bionic Poster
That's a good point, can't view the past using today's hindsight. Change one variable and who knows what could have happened.
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Deleted member 77403
Guest
Yes, and the dog fights with Djokovic certainly damaged Nadal physically also. He skipped a couple of slams after his wars with Djokovic.
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Deleted member 77403
Guest
The butterfly effect.
This. Nads would have had a hell of a GOAT worthy stretch if djokovic didnt completely stop him in his tracks like that
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Deleted member 77403
Guest
Imagine. Three channel slams to equal Borg. Back to back RG-W-USO wins. A NCYGS. Five slams in a row. Double career slam. Back to back years world number one. A grand slam finals winning ratio of 14-2....would have won Miami also.
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Deleted member 512391
Guest
I'm not so convinced that Nadal would've beaten Federer in the USO 2011 final, he played him extremely tough at the FO that year and he loves the faster conditions (they were indeed faster in 2011) in NYC, so his forehand and serve would've been very challenging for Nadal, who doesn't return as well as Novak.
Also, who knows what would've happened had Fed met Nadal in the final of Wimbledon that year.
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Deleted member 77403
Guest
You can see why a few Nadal fans cannot stand Djokovic.
He simply wasn't meant to happen, but he did.
Lol when you put it like that yeah its obvious. He literally took GOAT hood from nads, nads could have had it 5 years ago. And it came from no where thats what must have stung the most
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Deleted member 77403
Guest
I think Federer was up for the fight in 2011, and I normally see that as a legit slam that Djokovic cost him. As for Fed in W 2011, well, he lost to Tsonga. How the draw would have been we don't know, but Djokovic did not stop Federer there.
But If Djokovic was good enough to beat everyone else, but Nadal, a complete role reversal of what we saw during that period, then my point stands.
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Deleted member 77403
Guest
OK, now lets assume everything stays the same up until W 2014, from that point Djokovic single handily stopped Federer from basically putting the GOAT debate to sleep for good. Take Djokovic out of the picture, and Federer has back to back W wins in 2014 and 2015, USO 2015, and AO 2016. He would have been sitting on 20 plus slams easily, no chance for Nadal to get him.
In summary, the whole reason why the GOAT slam race is still alive is because of Djokovic first taking slams from Nadal and then from Federer. But, it could end for good this Sunday.
metsman
Talk Tennis Guru
To be fair if there was no Djokovic in 2011 then Nadal has back to back years to feast against pretty weak fields, so let's not pretend he is super unlucky here or something. Furthermore, given how mediocre his level was in the 11 Wimby, USO finals, it's not like he "deserved" those slams either. And I don't see this adding more than the 3 slams back on to Nadal's total, which is more than made up for by what Djokovic has taken away from Federer. I don't see this somehow having a multi year effect where Nadal dominates the ATP tour 11-16 or something. It would have been limited to 11-12, and Fed makes those slams right up from 14-16.
Fed lost the most having to face two ATG when they were 5-6 years younger, so whichever way you want to play this game, he comes out on top.
Ray Mercer
Hall of Fame
What screwed Federer is the US Open slowing down their courts. Had the US Open left their courts comparable to Dubai speed he would have several more US Open titles. The US Open court speed is a joke these days
What do you mean? if djok didnt stop him then just imaging nads momentum - nads would have had big historical wins in wimb 08, ao 09, got career grandslam youngest ever, had 2010 (yes that was epically weak field and got him 3 weak slams but its 3 slams in a year none the less) and then would have had 2011 and more. Yes without djok those slams become pretty weak era slams but its a heavy slam count. Plus nads main criticism is his streakiness and inability to win back to back. Without djok he would have loads of slams in a row and multiple multi slam years back to back. Saying that I can still imagine him even if novak wasnt there in the final that nads would be losing the odd one to a mug
plus nads would have a massive masters count
the only defense that fed fans would have is that without djok those slams nads has are very weak. Feds 2004-2007 was crushing multi slam winners and making them look weak, nads slam would have been against genuinely weak players a lot of the fields were weak. Obviously they weren't weak as nads and djok were both their so were extremely strong eras but if novak goes away its just nads so its epically weak fields and nads vulturing the crap out of slams but do you think that would have stopped the v@mos brigrade trolls lol? Suddenly weak era would no longer be a concept as it destroyed their boy nads and we would not hear the end of the legend of nads
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metsman
Talk Tennis Guru
This is assuming Nadal still wins 11 USO, if he doesn't, this all goes up in smoke.
Regardless, without Djokovic, Federer might have another multi slam year in 08 and 15, giving him a ridiculous 8 total and 6 straight, puts whatever Nadal does to shame, might have won 10 Wimbledons, 6+ slams at 3 different majors, 8 WTF titles, close to 400 weeks at #1 if nor more. Federer would have 30+ titles at the 5 biggest events in tennis. So that puts Nadal's hypothetical accomplishments to shame. So back to back 3 slam years and 4 straight multi-slam years for Nadal without Djoker? That's cute, guess who actually accomplished that. Nadal WITHOUT Djokovic would probably come close to Fed's career WITH Djokovic, but still not surpass it, so we're really reaching at straws here.
And if we're really playing the long game here, no Djokovic, Fed still wins 08 AO despite not being in form, his air of invincibility grows and his confidence is not shaken. Wins 08 Wimby and probably 09 AO as a result. GOAT debate is long over before it even began.
Point is this game can be played forever, and Fed wins basically any way you do it. And there's a reason for that...
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Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
Real gems they were.
I watched the 5th set again today for nostalgia's sake and mostly because the AO is the current tournament.Similar threads
