Federer's chances have actually decreased yesterday

Federer's chances

  • Increased because Murray was a big competitor

    Votes: 23 60.5%

  • Decreased because Nadal will have a lot more chance and will school fed in final

    Votes: 15 39.5%
  • Total voters
    38
J

joeri888

G.O.A.T.
This is my statement. I think that the fact Tsonga, but especially Murray went out has actually decreased Federer's chances of winning the US Open this year. This is of course because Nadal's chances of making the final are a lot bigger now.

What do you think? Did his chances increase or decrease?
 
Good question joeri...

It's a lot to consider... I don't think anyone's discussed the effects of what happened today with Murray, Nadal, Gonzalez, and Cilic on the top half of the draw...

I don't think we'll know the answer until the semi-finals..

If Nadal restores his AO form, then Federer will have a lot to worry about.
 
slicefox said:
stayed the same. Fed proved he can beat anybody, beat both murray and nadal in their last meetings
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Sure. He's proved it time and again. He's proved it at Wimbledon, he proved it in Australia as well. He just doesn't grind it out against Nadal, because Nadal's just better at that. I don't like all the 'Nadal is injured'-talk, when he is totally wearing down Monfils, and playing great tennis yesterday.

I'm just not confident in another Fed-Nad final, and I also think it is quite boring. They still have a long way to go, but def. not looking forward to it
 
I think it's about the same. Don't you think Nadal playing Fed and Murray playing Fed are both difficult matches for Fed? Regardless of who he has to face, he has the mental block from the H2H problem and both Murray and Nadal's games match up well against Fed. I think Fed's chances remain the same still.
 
sh@de said:
I think it's about the same. Don't you think Nadal playing Fed and Murray playing Fed are both difficult matches for Fed? Regardless of who he has to face, he has the mental block from the H2H problem and both Murray and Nadal's games match up well against Fed. I think Fed's chances remain the same still.
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He beat Murray in their last HC meeting, and in their last Slam final. I'm sure Murray would have a lot more trouble beating Fed in a Slam final than Rafa has. Rafa has done it the past 3 times.. I'm just not that confident anymore. At the AO I really thought Fed played exceptionally well, I thought Rafa had a tough time against Verdasco and I really saw Fed win that final in 3 or 4.. We all know what happened. It was both heartbreaking and hopeless. I'm just a lot more confident when he plays Murray. If it happens, than bring Rafa on, Roger will need to show what he's made of, but I think it doesn't increase Rog's chances
 
I think Nadal will reach the final and win it. Federer just becomes against Nadal what Roddick becomes against him - a competitive opponent who is a mental midget when it counts. And then Nadal will go down as a player who won the US Open "despite not being 100%". Pathetic.
 
Blinkism said:
Good question joeri...

It's a lot to consider... I don't think anyone's discussed the effects of what happened today with Murray, Nadal, Gonzalez, and Cilic on the top half of the draw...

I don't think we'll know the answer until the semi-finals..

If Nadal restores his AO form, then Federer will have a lot to worry about.
Click to expand...

I do agree Federer will have a lot to worry about, but that's hardly the reason. Nadal was clearly more comfortable on the AO surface. He's not comfortable on this one, and it's pretty clear to even the average viewer. If both Fed and Nadal were robots who never choked and show up in top form, Fed should be the winner due to his game that this surface rewards. However, they aren't robots, and knowing Fed's loss of focus not to mention chokes against Nadal, I would go with Nadal.
 
P_Agony said:
I do agree Federer will have a lot to worry about, but that's hardly the reason. Nadal was clearly more comfortable on the AO surface. He's not comfortable on this one, and it's pretty clear to even the average viewer. If both Fed and Nadal were robots who never choked and show up in top form, Fed should be the winner due to his game that this surface rewards. However, they aren't robots, and knowing Fed's loss of focus not to mention chokes against Nadal, I would go with Nadal.
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It should, it should. I thought that on grass (where Federer clearly played LOTS of big points very well in that third, fourth and also fifth set) and at the AO. The AO should favour Federer as well. It's just the mental blockage I don't want to be tortured with again. I can fully accept if Fed plays the final against Del Potro and gets blown off the court. That can happen. But not again a meltdown in the final please.

(although Fed beating Rafa in the final would be nice)
 
Actually I think his chances have not changed, but voted for increased due to lack options. I picked Del Potro to reach the final, I think Del Potro's chances have only increased with Murray out. Cilic is a good player, but if Murray would have played a little bit better he certainly would not have lost. Murray played far to defensive, don't see Del Potro making the same mistake. The last 2 HC matches between Del Potro and Nadal were won by Del potro. So I guess Del Potro is going to make it 3.
 
joeri888 said:
He beat Murray in their last HC meeting, and in their last Slam final. I'm sure Murray would have a lot more trouble beating Fed in a Slam final than Rafa has. Rafa has done it the past 3 times.. I'm just not that confident anymore. At the AO I really thought Fed played exceptionally well, I thought Rafa had a tough time against Verdasco and I really saw Fed win that final in 3 or 4.. We all know what happened. It was both heartbreaking and hopeless. I'm just a lot more confident when he plays Murray. If it happens, than bring Rafa on, Roger will need to show what he's made of, but I think it doesn't increase Rog's chances
Click to expand...

And yet Fed's beaten Nadal on clay in their last meeting. He should have confidence going into the match that he can beat Nadal. Given that the surface favours Fed so much more, I think Fed can win.
 
sh@de said:
And yet Fed's beaten Nadal on clay in their last meeting. He should have confidence going into the match that he can beat Nadal. Given that the surface favours Fed so much more, I think Fed can win.
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If Nadal would have the same game only with Roddick's face, Fed would win. Sadly, with Nadal's face being Nadal's face, he probably won't ;-)
 
Doesn't Nadal have to beat Del Potro? who has beaten him the last two times they playes? and is on fire right?

Doesn't fed have to beat Soderling? and maybe Djokovic?

Were getting ahead of ourselves, i had thought we would get a Fed/Djoker VS Murray final and just look what happened...
 
DarthFed said:
Doesn't Nadal have to beat Del Potro? who has beaten him the last two times they playes? and is on fire right?

Doesn't fed have to beat Soderling? and maybe Djokovic?

Were getting ahead of ourselves, i had thought we would get a Fed/Djoker VS Murray final and just look what happened...
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Murray losing pretty much gurantaees Nadal a spot in the final. DP is in great form, but so is Nadal at the moment, and beating Nadal in a grand slam is nearly impossible for any player.
 
joeri888 said:
This is my statement. I think that the fact Tsonga, but especially Murray went out has actually decreased Federer's chances of winning the US Open this year. This is of course because Nadal's chances of making the final are a lot bigger now.

What do you think? Did his chances increase or decrease?
Click to expand...

His odds on Betfair dropped from just under 2 to around 1.77. So they think he's more likely to win now.
 
P Agony, the only thing i'm praying for is that your extreme negative energy doesn't get out into the ether and in turn reach Fed.. lol
 
P_Agony said:
Murray losing pretty much gurantaees Nadal a spot in the final. DP is in great form, but so is Nadal at the moment, and beating Nadal in a grand slam is nearly impossible for any player.
Click to expand...

Because Nadal has such a great record here at the USO, right?
 
pame said:
P Agony, the only thing i'm praying for is that your extreme negative energy doesn't get out into the ether and in turn reach Fed.. lol
Click to expand...

I prefer to call it a realistic approach. History tends to repeat itsef, especially with Fed and Nadal.
 
rhubarb said:
His odds on Betfair dropped from just under 2 to around 1.77. So they think he's more likely to win now.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I saw that, which is actually why I started this thread, because I disagree with that assessment.

I prefer to call it a realistic approach. History tends to repeat itsef, especially with Fed and Nadal.
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It's at the very least a pessimistic approach. I am with you on this one, but if it's not IMPOSSIBLE for Federer to win against Nadal, and Nadal is just as far from the final, if not further, than Federer.
 
No change, Nadal would have licked this Murray just as Cilic did. Murray was tired. He would have gone out sooner or later.
 
P_Agony said:
I prefer to call it a realistic approach. History tends to repeat itsef, especially with Fed and Nadal.
Click to expand...
For once I must diagree Nadal dropped a set to Monfils and on top didn't play his best tennis and Monfils was making UE's and handing nadal games. Del potro will not make these mistakes
 
Tsonga is overrated. If Gonzalez cant beat Nadal (and I agree he probably wont) Tsonga would not have either. Gonzalez had as much chance as Tsonga did atleast anyway. Murray is a better hard court player than Nadal so I am happier he is gone. On this surface Nadal will be the easier final if he gets there.
 
After a long layoff, Nadal needed to play his way into top form.
Monfils did just that service by attempting to out hit and out run Nadal in the first two sets. By the end of the second set, Rafa was dialed in. Gonzales and Del Potro will be great fodder to keep him dialed in.
I'm rooting for an epic Nadal-Federer final.
 
Thanks for your brilliant insight Fedace. Youre so smart. Wish I could just go over there and punch you in the face. Biggest troll on TW.


Anyway I think most people anticipated a Nadal vs Fed or Murray vs Fed final so I don't think it makes much difference. Either way Fed has his hands full.Even if Delpo pulls through. Hes been playing great. Should be a good final.
 
All-rounder said:
Bottom line if federer finds his cincinnati form its GAME OVER for every player including nadal
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Yeah...If he plays like he did against Djokovic and Murray, he'll be nearly impossible to beat on this surface. Serving incredibly well, defense to offense, that forehand back on fire again.

Federer only served 52% in the AO final, and had only 11 aces in addition to 6 double faults...If I remember correctly in a couple of sets his percentage was in the 30s. That's not typical Fed serving, and his 66 errors was also rather uncharacteristic for how he normally plays in big matches. Even in his 5 set loss at Wimbledon in 2008, he only committed 52 errors even though they played more points.

If Federer can improve those areas against Nadal and really impose his game, I think he wins. I fear though that he'll fold and play well enough to win, but find a way to lose (AO 2009 being the classic example).
 
About the same, but I voted for "increased".

Why?

I think Murray had a good chance to beat DP, but I think DP has a better chance to beat Nadal than Murray does. No way Nadal would play as poorly against Murray as he did last year.
 
I think the main thing that will decide a Federer and Nadal match will be serve.

If Nadal serves well and Federer doesn't - Nadal wins

If Nadal serves poorly and Federer serves well - Federer wins

If both serve well or poorly... I'd give the slight edge to Federer assuming the mental block is gone.
 
joeri888 said:
It should, it should. I thought that on grass (where Federer clearly played LOTS of big points very well in that third, fourth and also fifth set) and at the AO. The AO should favour Federer as well. It's just the mental blockage I don't want to be tortured with again. I can fully accept if Fed plays the final against Del Potro and gets blown off the court. That can happen. But not again a meltdown in the final please.

(although Fed beating Rafa in the final would be nice)
Click to expand...

Imagine though, if Fed is able to BEAT Rafa in the final. It would be amazing for him.

Still, the thought of him losing the US Open final to Nadal is bad. I also would rather see him lose to another player than Nadal if he can't win it.
 
IvanAndreevich said:
About the same, but I voted for "increased".

Why?

I think Murray had a good chance to beat DP, but I think DP has a better chance to beat Nadal than Murray does. No way Nadal would play as poorly against Murray as he did last year.
Click to expand...

I agree that Delpo would be the harder opponent for Nadal. I don't think he fears Nadal.
 
Ok this is assuming Federer wins his next 2. I would say his chances dropped very slightly. I thought Murray would likely make the final where Federer would have an edge. It seemed like Nadal was rusty until his last match. If he makes it to the final and plays like that, I think he would have the edge.
 
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