Fed's chances at the other slams?

What are Fed's chances in the other slams?

  • Wimbledon is his only chance

    Votes: 8 21.6%

  • Possible USO, maybe AO

    Votes: 14 37.8%

  • No chance anywhere

    Votes: 10 27.0%

  • 2016 Calendar year slam is inevitable

    Votes: 5 13.5%
  • Total voters
    37
robok9

robok9

Semi-Pro
There is always a big deal made about how Wimbledon is Federer's best chance to win another slam. I would agree with this statement. However, along with this comment, people basically say that he has no chance to win any of the other slam. While I would agree that his chances at the French are pretty slim, I still think he's a top contender coming into this year's USO and maybe next year's Aussie.

There's all this talk of, "he can't play best of 5 anymore," and I don't necessarily agree. Even in his later years (2010-present), he still gets to the semis and is sometimes a few points away from the finals (USO SF '10 and '11 particularly). With his 2014 performance at Montreal and Cincy, he was stopped only by an invincible Cilic in the semis of the USO. I don't feel like people should dismiss this year's Wimbledon loss as the "last chance" for him to win a major.

So, do you think Federer is still a legitimate contender at the hard court slams?
 
I don't know about Australia since it's such a slow HC and the wide temperature between day and night sessions seems to throw him off. Witness how lately he's been losing when he plays night sessions and then suddenly has a day session as he did this year's Aussie Open. But US Open I think he's just a hair less of a contender than at Wimbledon.
 
If he couldn't win Wimbledon this year he'll never win another one. This year's Wimbledon was his last chance. He should have won one of these last two vs. Nole
 
We keep saying Wimbledeon because the surface is less taxing and fits his quick offense game. Novak is becoming the grass court specialist beating Federer twice on his best surface, that has to be discouraging.

I don't think Federer can take the humidity nowadays in New York, he will have to play evening matches, have a cupcake draw and expect Novak, Rafa, Murray and even some of the young guns to be injured or eliminated early so he can have a shot. He will have to pray so David Ferrer to be at a US Open final to have a shot.

The great thing about this year's US Open is that it will be on September so the weather should be starting to get slightly cooler.
 
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I don't think he's winning another slam. But I'd love to be proven wrong.
 
I think Federer's major problem right now is his inability to beat two elites in a row. This past Wimby he was great against Murray and than fizzled out against Djoker. If he snags a draw where he faces only one of Djoker, Murray, Nadal or Stan, I think he can pull it off.
 
I love Fed but his chances lie somewhere between nil and minus zero.

As long as Nole is around that is. With him gone they go up considerably.
 
llodra_fan said:
He has to avoid Nadal and Djokovic, only then he has a chance.
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That is true but another problem that Fed is that best of five has become physically taxing for him. He does not want to meet guys like Dimitrov, Berdych, Monfils, Kyrgios, in a best of five they are the type of players who get better thoughout a grandslam.

His best bet is going against chokers like Batista Agut, Sam Groth.
 
Fed is amazingly still going strong at all the slams, which is very impressive given his age. That said, getting past the Djokovic hurdle is probably impossible at the French or Austrlian, and would take a lot of things going his way at Wimbledon or US Open. If someone knocks off Novak earlier, then his chances increase a lot, but still no guarantee, as there are dangerous players who can redline and just plain knock him out as well. Murray, Stanimal, Delpo, Cilic, Tsonga, etc. Fed will have to pull out that SF Murray performance at least once or twice more in the second week to get his 18th major.
 
robok9 said:
There is always a big deal made about how Wimbledon is Federer's best chance to win another slam. I would agree with this statement. However, along with this comment, people basically say that he has no chance to win any of the other slam. While I would agree that his chances at the French are pretty slim, I still think he's a top contender coming into this year's USO and maybe next year's Aussie.
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AO is too slow for Fed to win, his game these days is centered around his serve (his FH, movement, endurance and transition from defense to offense are a pale shadow of what they once were). If he has a bad serving day or is playing on a surface where he can't maximize the effect of it he'll lose to first decent opponent he meets (or even earlier, like he did to Seppi at AO this year).

robok9 said:
There's all this talk of, "he can't play best of 5 anymore," and I don't necessarily agree. Even in his later years (2010-present), he still gets to the semis and is sometimes a few points away from the finals (USO SF '10 and '11 particularly). With his 2014 performance at Montreal and Cincy, he was stopped only by an invincible Cilic in the semis of the USO. I don't feel like people should dismiss this year's Wimbledon loss as the "last chance" for him to win a major.
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2010 and 2011 were 4-5 years ago, that's a long period in tennis (and transition from late 20s to early 30s is particular painful for most players), Fed was playing much better tennis then on HC and clay (not grass, those years were bad for Fed on that surface) back then.

Cilic was playing terrific tennis but hardly invincible, that Fed went down in straights is not a good sign. He used to be the kryptonite for zoning big hitters and now he couldn't even take a set. Also don't forget that Fed dodged a bullet against Monfils in QF, he could have easily not even made it to Cilic in the first place.

robok9 said:
So, do you think Federer is still a legitimate contender at the hard court slams?
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4th favourite at best at USO (and even that I feel unsure of), not a contender at AO IMO.
 
It's a little lol-worthy that so many writes off Federer, and yet he gets great results. He can still beat everybody, not many can. Tour without him would be a saddening bore.
 
junior74 said:
It's a little lol-worthy that so many writes off Federer, and yet he gets great results. He can still beat everybody, not many can. Tour without him would be a saddening bore.
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But the fact is he hasn't won a slam since 2012. I would be delighted if he won another one but I don't think he can manage it with Djoker and Nadal in his way. They aren't the only ones who are a problem for him either. Look how Stan took him out at the FO. Granted, clay is his worst surface but he has a few guys who could take him out in slams these days.

I think facing Murray in a slam final would be his best bet, he still dominates him at the slams. Wimbledon is still his best chance or U.S. open at a push but it depends on who he faces.
 
This years USO, he needs not to get into 5 set battles with anyone, he'll need to conserve his energy. That serve needs to be on fire also.
 
Roland Garros- zero chance to ever win there again
Australian Open- close to zero chance to ever win there again
U.S Open- has a chance, but hasnt made the final in a long time. With the back to back schedule will be very hard given his age, not to mention the depth on hard courts
Wimbledon- clearly his best chance. He might have let his best 2 chances slip these past 2 years though.

I dont think he will win another major but that is the order from least likely to most.
 
mattosgrant said:
Roland Garros- zero chance to ever win there again
Australian Open- close to zero chance to ever win there again
U.S Open- has a chance, but hasnt made the final in a long time. With the back to back schedule will be very hard given his age, not to mention the depth on hard courts
Wimbledon- clearly his best chance. He might have let his best 2 chances slip these past 2 years though.

I dont think he will win another major but that is the order from least likely to most.
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There's no back to back semis/finals anymore. Semis are played on Friday.
 
Inanimate_object said:
Right.

Just like Wimbledon 2014 was his last chance...
Just like US Open 2014 was his last chance...

Federer makes his own chances.
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No, he does not. His best chance was relief for his body--which was at Wimbledon. He could not make his own chances when the overwhelming are always around (Djokovic, or any other player he's had trouble with). The conditions of the USO will not be favorable to him--not for his body, so he will need the perfect storm of events--including major upsets or injuries, opponent loss of focus to at least get him to the finals.
 
If he couldn't take advantage with Nadal in a slump, I doubt he'll win another once Rafa regains his form.
 
Since winning WImbledon in 2012, these have been his best chances:

2013 Aussie Open: Makes his 10th consecutive semi. Loses to Murray in 5 tight sets. Would have faced Djokovic who got pushed but beat Murray in 4.
2014 Wimbledon: Pushes Djokovic to 5-7 in the fifth set. Novak hadn't faced Roger in a Slam Final since 2007, Roger used his mental edge but couldn't finish.
2014 USO: Maybe he beats Nishikori in the Final. Opposite draws he doesn't beat Cilic in the Final. Can't beat Djokovic at USO.
2015 Wimbledon: Shows better form than previous year and Djokovic just plays at a higher level, nearly loses in straights.


This year's Wimbledon can be taken one of two ways. Roger seems to be more consistent than last year but Djokovic is just getting better, more consistent himself. Federer can't beat Djokovic in the form he is in right now. Time keeps ticking against Roger, so basically he's 0% against Djokovic. He can't take 3 sets off Djokovic.

He CAN beat anyone else but it depends what game they bring. As we saw with Cilic last season.

I voted USO & AO. He has proven the ability to make the semifinal and depending on match-up, the Final. However his breakdown of chances are still like this:

Wimbledon: 80%
USO: 12%
AO: 7%
FO: 1%

The only reason I give edge to USO is because Federer at his age gets better in the later part of the season due to practice and guys like Murray and Djokovic perform more fresh at the beginning.

His overall chance at winning a Slam however is set at around 3%. I get this number via these considerations:

Last 22 Slams with 1 Win=4.5%
4 Finals=18.1%
Final's conversion rate of 25%
Opponent's Favoured to Lose: 2 (Murray & Djokovic)
6 Years of Decline due to Age

He has gone longer without a Slam since 2012 than he went from 2010-2012. This automatically decreases his likelihood from 4.5% in winning. The reason I steady it at 3% is because there are only 2 opponents in Murray and Djokovic who will be consistently favoured against him while Nadal has the history against him but isn't likely to beat him outside of clay. Clay however is Roger's weakest surface right now so that's a non-factor. When we isolate the Slam he has highest chance of winning, that gives him a very small sample to work with. That said he has made 2 Finals the last 2 appearances, so at Wimbledon his chances should be viewed as 40% but given how he gets 1 year older, his chances decline and he is 1 for 6 in actually winning since 2009. His current age historically also has a low yield for Slam winners. Ken Rosewall and Andres Gimeno are the only Slam winners past age 34 with neither winning after 1972 (when both did it). Given the tour environment, if we look at the modern age late 80s to now, the oldest winners have been:

32.8: Agassi in 2003
31.0: Sampras in 2002
30.11: Federer in 2012
30.8: Agassi in 2001
30.3: Andres Gomez in 1990
30.1: Wawrinka in 2015
30.0: Petr Kodra in 1998

Give Federer's legacy and his placement at #3 on that list, he has to be given some chance. His back to back Wimbledon Finals raise him to 3% for me.
 
Old rog required much luck versus a slow moving djoker in 2010 and injured djoker 2011--despite having 2 match points.

There's no way a fat guy or an immature wawrinka shows up for fed.
That is just too bad.
Rafa knows to give up in the 4th round to let fed lose to journeymen in the strong era.
 
I think it's obvious that Wimbledon is Roger's best chance, but to say he's a total write off at any of the other 3 is laughable. Everyone loves to write him off, yet somehow, Roger finds his own path and is still there in the 2nd week. Of course, having some luck with the draw, scheduling, top seeds losing early will give him better chances, but I believe he's still a contender. He's not #2 for nothing, outside of Djokovic, no player has really dominated him in the last 2 years. Sure he'll lose the odd match, but overall, he's the 2nd best hard court player after Djokovic. While I agree the depth on hard court is greater than any other surface, I still don't think he's a write off for the USO. I mean he did dominate for 5 straight years there. I wouldn't be surprised to see him make it to the final against Djokovic once again.

If I'd have to rank all 4 slams in terms of his odd of winning again, I'd go Wimbledon, US Open, Australian Open then French Open.
 
Fed's ship has sailed as far as majors go. 2014 Wimbledon was his last realistic chance. His 2015 semifinal form didn't hold up in the finals and he was soundly beaten.

His chances of winning any slam at 34+ are slim to none. Even when he was handed a dream draw at last year's USO, he still lost to Cilic. In order for Fed to win another slam, he would have to play someone like Ferrer or Simon in the final and the would have to sail through to the final without the loss of a set. I don't hold out much hope for that scenario.
 
I'm scratching my head on the US Open votes. Strictly speaking, he hasn't made a final since 2009 and his performance there against opponents since 2011 has left a lot to be desired. Berdych, Robredo, almost Monfils, Cilic. All almost catatonic performances from him, although Cilic definitely locked him out completely.
 
swizzy said:
someone mentioned earlier that delpo could stop fed from reaching an 18th... is he really back?
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this article doesn't state when he's coming back exactly but he did split with his coach and his trainer.

http://www.**************.org/Juan-...With-His-Coach-and-Trainer-articolo25185.html


it also says that he had the stitches removed from his cast on july 1 and switched to a splint and is currently rehabbing the wrist. i don't know how he'd be ready for the uso but i guess stranger things have happened. at 569 in the rankings he's gonna need a wc. i don't think that'd be a problem since he's a former champ though.
 
HipRotation said:
I'm scratching my head on the US Open votes. Strictly speaking, he hasn't made a final since 2009 and his performance there against opponents since 2011 has left a lot to be desired. Berdych, Robredo, almost Monfils, Cilic. All almost catatonic performances from him, although Cilic definitely locked him out completely.
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Well, to be fair, since 2012 the breakdown of his peaks and valleys at the 3 other Slams are like so:

Australia: 3 Semifinals, 3rd Round Loss (currently)
French: 1 Semifinal, 2 Quarters (currently), 4th Round Loss
USO: 1 Semifinal (currently), 1 Quarter, 4th Round Loss

If you like consistency then I suppose you might go with the Aussie Open but his current last appearance was a 3rd round loss to Seppi. His next best current appearance after Wimbledon is the USO with a semifinal last season. So going by most recent performance, that has to be the vote after Wimbledon. Keep also in mind that he lost Australia in 2009 to Nadal giving him his first hard Slam and beat Murray in 2010 and hasn't looked like a true contender since despite some flashes. He was an absolute contender in 2011 at the USO and lost to Berdych in 2012 who lost to the champ Murray. He lost to the champ Cilic last season.

So strictly speaking, the history and everything else points to USO after Wimbledon.
 
If you look at the rankings, when Novak is not around, you can't say Federer will never win any slams again. Even Nadal is not a certainty now against Federer, I guess. I want to see Fedal match now to see how they match up at this point. If Djokovic, indeed, is the only player whom Federer cannot beat at slams, that means he has as good a chance as anyone else other than Novak. Effectively, doesn't that mean he still can win any of the slams if someone upsets Novak?
 
SW19 > USO and that's pretty much it. Those are the only two major venues where he can hope to win in 3 sets. That's the only way he can win one more.
 
Russeljones said:
SW19 > USO and that's pretty much it. Those are the only two major venues where he can hope to win in 3 sets. That's the only way he can win one more.
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I think everyone agrees to this in reality. His best slams are Wimbledon and USO. However, I just want to point out that in the absence of Novak, we can't completely rule out Federer. Of course, he is likely to lose to some other player than Djokovic, but it's not a certainty either. I'm not trying to inject false hopes to Fed fans, BTW.
 
90's Clay said:
If he couldn't win Wimbledon this year he'll never win another one. This year's Wimbledon was his last chance. He should have won one of these last two vs. Nole
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I think you are making a lot of sense here. I also believe Federer's chance of winning another slam ever is very slim, but you still never know in sports.
 
I actually already thought that that ship had sailed with Wimby 2014, so seeing him reach yet another final was already a big + for me as a fan.

As for the question at hand: close to the absolute minimum of chances, about zero, no matter where.
 
Slim but USO is not crazy. Ok, Djokovic is the heavy favorite. Many others could also play well enough to defeat Federer. But, if he gets a good draw and plays well, it is not totally crazy that he could win.
 
BGod said:
Well, to be fair, since 2012 the breakdown of his peaks and valleys at the 3 other Slams are like so:

Australia: 3 Semifinals, 3rd Round Loss (currently)
French: 1 Semifinal, 2 Quarters (currently), 4th Round Loss
USO: 1 Semifinal (currently), 1 Quarter, 4th Round Loss

If you like consistency then I suppose you might go with the Aussie Open but his current last appearance was a 3rd round loss to Seppi. His next best current appearance after Wimbledon is the USO with a semifinal last season. So going by most recent performance, that has to be the vote after Wimbledon. Keep also in mind that he lost Australia in 2009 to Nadal giving him his first hard Slam and beat Murray in 2010 and hasn't looked like a true contender since despite some flashes. He was an absolute contender in 2011 at the USO and lost to Berdych in 2012 who lost to the champ Murray. He lost to the champ Cilic last season.

So strictly speaking, the history and everything else points to USO after Wimbledon.
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I don't see any suggestion in your post that his chances are any better at the US than the Australian. He self-destructted in the 2012 match against Berdych, one of his worst matches from that year and had no business being in the Semi last year let alone getting the spanking from Cilic. At least in the Australian it was Nadal and Murray who were gatekeeping him.
 
If he wins any slam this is how Fed Sr will react.

ZzPps2D.gif
 
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